Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

518
FXUS62 KMLB 112320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Turning noticeably cooler tonight behind a cold front; Windy
  along the coast

- Hazardous boating conditions tonight into Monday

- Rain chances increase midweek followed by sharply colder
  temperatures late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Thru tonight...Cold front is slicing across central FL this
afternoon. Warm ahead of the front with record high temp at Vero
Beach (86F). Gusty northwest to north winds behind the front will
advect noticeably cooler air with lows from the mid 40s across
Lake/intrr Volusia to the low and mid 50s most elsewhere.
Immediate Treasure coast will hold in the 60s due to slight
onshore (N/NE) wind component. Pressure gradient will tighten as
high pressure builds over the area and this will produce windy
conds along the coast and breezy inland. Wind speeds 20-25 mph,
gusting near 30 mph will occur at the coast.

Mon-Tue...Winds will veer onshore and gradually decrease early
this week as high pressure over the deep South elongates and
extends offshore the Carolina coast. Max temps Mon are forecast
to be near to slightly below normal in the afternoon, ranging from
the mid to upper 60s Orlando north and in the low to mid 70s to
the south. Lows Tuesday morning will be similar to the night
prior, but with lighter winds. Afternoon highs Tue will recover a
little more reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations,
except upper 60s across much of Lake and Volusia counties. It will
be mostly dry early this week, but the developing onshore flow
should produce isolated Atlc showers, a few of which could push
onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

Wed-Sun (modified)...Moisture and rain chances increase into
midweek well ahead of a strong cold front moving into the
Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and as it pushes through the area
Thursday. PoPs increase to 40-50% Wednesday, 50-60% Wednesday
night and continue 20-40% on Thursday, mainly in the morning. This
rainfall will be welcome/beneficial due to the much drier than
normal conditions of late, but rainfall totals don`t look to be
enough to alleviate any of the ongoing abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions across east central FL. Current ECMWF ensemble
guidance only gives around around a 40-50% chance for totals
greater than 0.50 inches from Wednesday-Thursday. Strong/gusty
west winds develop Thu behind the front as low pressure deepens
near the mid-Atlc coast. Dry conditions then forecast behind the
front Friday and Saturday. An active, fast-moving weather pattern
will bring another cold front across the area next Sun, keeping
temps below normal and only a small chance for showers.

Highs will be near to cooler than normal through midweek from
increasing cloud cover/rain chances and as strong cold front moves
through Thursday, ranging from mid 60s to low 70s for much of the
area on Wednesday and in the 60s Thursday. It will then turn
sharply colder behind the front Thursday night, with lows in the
30s much of the area and freezing temperatures possible mainly
northwest of I-4. Wind chill values early Friday morning are
currently forecast to drop into the mid and upper 20s with low to
mid 30s in Martin county. This would require a Cold Weather
Advisory for most areas. Highs on Friday are forecast to hold in
the upper 50s north of Orlando with lower 60s elsewhere. Not quite
as cold Friday night since winds will be much lighter though
temps will reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs on Saturday rise
into the upper 60s to low 70s which is very seasonable. Another
cold front Sunday knocks us back down a little below normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Thru Tonight...Cold front Hazardous boating conditions Boating
conditions will start off favorable this morning, but boaters
should be prepared for conditions rapidly deteoriating and
becoming hazardous this afternoon behind a passing cold front.
Winds will become northerly and quickly increase to 20-25 knots
behind the passing front through this afternoon, with these speeds
persisting into tonight. This will build seas up to 6-9 feet into
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 1 PM this
afternoon across the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard
counties expanding southward to the Treasure Coast waters late
this afternoon.

Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist Mon as winds veer
north-northeast and gradually decrease from 15-20 knots to 10-15
knots in the afternoon. Seas will linger up to 7-9 feet across the
Gulf Stream Monday. Boating conditions then gradually improve
into Tuesday, with N/NE winds decreasing to 5-10 knots and seas
falling to 3-5 feet. Boating conditions will remain generally
favorable through Wednesday and then a strong cold front will move
through the area Thursday, with W/NW winds increasing and seas
building 7-9 FT offshore once again. The offshore flow, though,
will suppress seas nearshore. High pressure will build over the
area Friday allowing winds and seas to subside.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible into early this week
across the waters, with coverage of showers and the potential for
a few storms increasing into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGs continue from MLB southward along the coast as
the cold front moves south of east central Florida. Anticipate
these reductions improving by 03Z. NNW winds around 10 knots
persist, becoming gusty at times overnight. Guidance is a bit less
enthusiastic about wind gusts, so brought winds down a bit at the
terminals. Winds veer to out of the NE after 08Z, remaining
around 10 knots through the rest of the forecast period. Mostly
dry tomorrow, though there is a low chance of showers at the
Treasure Coast terminals. Confidence too low to include at this
time but will continue to monitor trends and amend as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  65  53  68 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  52  69  54  71 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  56  70  58  73 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  59  71  58  74 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  45  65  49  68 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  49  67  52  70 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  51  67  53  71 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  72  58  74 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion