Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

052
FXUS62 KMLB 250541
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1241 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Critically low RH values will maintain very sensitive fire
  weather conditions through Thursday.

- Cold temperatures are forecast again tonight. A Frost Advisory
  remains in effect for much of the area early Wednesday morning.

- Poor boating conditions linger this evening across the Gulf
  Stream, and a High Risk for rip currents remains at area
  beaches.

- Next chance for measurable rain and isolated storms returns
  later Friday into Saturday as a front approaches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Temperatures have quickly dropped into the 40s, with a few rural
spots in the upper 30s. Capturing these trends required
subtracting another degree or so off temperatures overnight. This
necessitates an expansion of the Frost Advisory to the northern
Brevard barrier islands. Otherwise, no significant changes are
needed. Still expecting a frosty start to our Wednesday before the
warm-up gets underway for the back half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Now-Tonight...Clear skies are allowing for plenty of sunshine this
afternoon as temperatures reach the mid 50s to low 60s. High
pressure centered over the northeastern Gulf will pivot east
tonight, moving over the Florida Peninsula. Light to nearly calm
winds are forecast as a result, which will set the stage for frost
formation as temperatures plummet into the 30s and low 40s. Rural
and typically colder locations, particularly in northern Lake,
inland Volusia, and portions of Osceola/Okeechobee counties may
reach the freezing mark for a short time (1-2 hours) Wednesday
morning. With southwest flow resuming just above the surface, the
thinking is that this may help level off temperatures, which
would otherwise fall to or below freezing for a longer duration.
Thus, no changes have been made to hazards with a Frost Advisory
remaining in effect (2 AM to 8 AM) Wednesday morning. Sensitive
plants should be protected or brought inside from the potential
frost.

Wednesday-Thursday...500mb flow flattens out mid week as surface
high pressure maintains its influence (dry weather) over the FL
Peninsula. A few high clouds may filter across the area Wednesday
and Thursday, but daytime highs will be on a warming trend. We
look to get close to normal high temps (low to mid 70s) tomorrow
before climbing above normal into the 80s on Thursday. Thursday
morning will stay chilly with overnight lows about 10 or so
degrees warmer Thursday night/Friday morning.

A southwest breeze is forecast Wednesday afternoon, turning more
south-southeast along the coast as a diffuse sea breeze tries to
form. Winds pick up a bit more (10-15 mph) Thursday afternoon,
also turning onshore at the coast by the afternoon. With dry
conditions in place and these breezy conditions, fire concerns
will remain.

Friday-Monday (modified)...A cold front across the southeast U.S.
will move toward Florida Friday. Models have this boundary
sliding into central FL Friday night into Saturday before
gradually pushing southward late Saturday/early Sunday. Ahead of
the front, rain chances increase, along with a low end potential
for thunderstorms. PoPs increase from 40-50 percent Friday
afternoon, to 60-75 percent Friday night into Saturday. Model QPF
generally ranges from 0.20-0.65" with the potential for locally
higher amounts. As the boundary shifts south, low-end rain
chances around 20-30 percent will linger as onshore flow develops
with an area of high pressure situated well north of the area.
This will favor isolated to scattered onshore moving showers into
early next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to
slightly above normal through the period, with warmest max temps
in the low to mid 80s (perhaps even upper 80s south) on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

While the Small Craft Advisory comes to an end this afternoon,
small craft should still exercise caution in the Gulf Stream this
evening. Seas gradually fall to 4 to 6 feet tonight, then below 6
feet early Wednesday morning. 10-15 knot southerly winds Wednesday
briefly increase into early Thursday offshore (15-18 knots). SSE
winds pick up Thursday and Thursday night, reaching 15-20 knots,
especially in the Gulf Stream. High pressure remains over the
local waters through at least Thursday until a cold front begins
to press south Friday into Saturday. This will bring our next chance
for rain and isolated lightning storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1232 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF
period. Some very low (10% or less) chances for fog INVOF the
inland terminals early this morning. Light/VRB winds tonight
become SW 7-12 kts after 15Z. A sea breeze will develop from KVRB-
KSUA between 18Z-23Z which could cause winds to flip- flop from
SW- SE at 8-12 kts. Winds then becoming light SW-S/VRB at all
terminals after 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Light and variable winds tonight turn out of the southwest on
Wednesday, reaching 8-12 mph in the afternoon. Sensitive to
critical fire weather conditions are forecast Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon due to low humidity and breezy southwest winds.
As drought conditions worsen, fire sensitivities will linger,
even into late week as humidity levels recover. A front approaches
Friday into Saturday, bringing the next chance for showers and
even an isolated lightning storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  47  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  72  49  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  73  50  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
VRB  74  49  80  59 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  72  48  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  72  48  80  59 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  72  50  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  74  48  80  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-347-447-547-647.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion