Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

159
FXUS62 KMLB 062046
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
346 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents will be present at area beaches
  through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop each day
  through this weekend, mainly along the inland moving east coast
  sea breeze. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning
  storms.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with near record highs in
  the mid to upper 80s for interior sites this weekend and well
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently...Dominant E-SE flow around subtropical high pressure is
pushing a diffuse east coast sea breeze steadily inland. Morning
Cape sounding shows some drier at 800-850mb and this is likely
helping to suppress the cu field seen on hi res vis sat imagery.
Some higher moisture across north central FL combined with cold
mid level temps (-13C) is generating scattered showers and
lightning storms. As the sea breeze interacts with the larger lake
breeze boundaries across NW Volusia and Lake counties through
early eve, isolated showers and storms should percolate.

Tonight/Sat...Model guidance is not too bullish on fog chances as
boundary layer should remain pretty mixed in persistent SE flow,
thus limiting fog coverage. Stratus is typically favored in these
situations. High pressure over the western Atlc with associated
ridge axis north of the area will maintain the onshore (ESE/SE)
flow Sat. Wind speeds will average 10-15 mph and sometimes 15-20
mph along the coast with some higher afternoon gusts. Isolated
showers will push on the coast from the Atlc, esp late night/
morning hours and south of the Cape. During the day another
diffuse east coast sea breeze will develop and push inland,
sparking additional ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers. An ISOLD lightning
storm or two will be possible in the afternoon in association
with the inland-moving sea breeze.

Highs will reach the L80s along the coast to M80s into the interior
today and Sat. Overnight lows remain mild and in the 60s.

A continued threat exists at ALL central FL beaches for numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents and occasional rough surf, in
part, due to the persistent ENE long period swell. It is strongly
discouraged to enter the chilly surf through this weekend.

Sun-Fri...Surface high pressure ridging remains near or across
the central FL peninsula for much of this period. Surface winds
may veer a bit more SE/S at times and decrease in speed. This
should produce a better chance for patchy fog across a larger area
of EC FL both Sun and Mon mornings. Periodic onshore-moving
showers along the coast and an ISOLD aftn/evening lightning storm
cannot be ruled out across the interior, though PWATs will be
modest through Wed. For most days, a 20% or less chance of precip
will exist and much of the forecast area will remain dry as a
whole. A frontal boundary is forecast to settle southward into
north FL late in the week which will increase moisture and rain
chances. There are timing differences with the operational 12Z
ECMWF showing a cleaner, faster frontal passage late Thu. WPC is
leaning toward the GFS solution showing a slower frontal
progression down the peninsula on Fri. Hence, scattered showers
and isolated storms are in the forecast for both Thu and Fri.

Much above normal temperatures are forecast this weekend and into
mid next week. Near record highs in the mid to upper 80s each day
over the interior with a 90F reading or two within reach. In the
short term, record highs at LEE and SFB (both 87F) on Sunday look
the most vulnerable. Not as warm along the coast as onshore flow
holds max temps near 80 along the immediate coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

A persistent pattern in place as high pressure continues across
the western Atlc with a trailing ridge axis initially north of the
local Atlc waters. This ridge axis will settle southward closer
to central FL Sun into early next week. Winds will be
predominately ESE-SSE at 10-15 knots with some higher gusts.
Primary contribution to wave height will be a 3-4 ft east well
with a bit of a wind chop added. So combined seas 4-5 FT Sat and
3-5 FT Sun-Mon and 3-4 FT Tue-Wed. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower chances
exists for much of this period and an ISOLD lightning storm threat
(less than 20pct) cannot be ruled out this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1229 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through early tonight, then more
stratus/fog possible along and north of I-4. This afternoon, wind
gusts 18-23 kts from the ESE have managed to creep inland, and the
strato-cu deck has produced BKN020-030 MVFR CIGs from time to
time, but has now generally lifted or thinned out to VFR. Some
SHRA/TSRA could develop inland on a diffuse east coast sea breeze
INVOF KMCO-KLEE after 19Z, but highest chances along the sea
breeze collision well west of the ECFL terminals after 23Z. Window
for SHRA/TSRA closes by 00Z at KMCO/KISM (and likely sooner), but
could see an ISO cell creep back towards KLEE through around 02Z.
Chances for MVFR-IFR CIGs from 08Z-14Z at the inland terminals
have increased to 20-60% (at KMCO, around 50% for MVFR and 20% for
IFR), but only in the most recent runs and would like to get a
few more cycles in before committing to TEMPO or prevailing
reductions in the TAFs. Mainly VFR conditions after 15Z Saturday.
Another day of ESE winds becoming gusty along the coast and
possibly inland, and low chances for SHRA/TSRA inland after 19Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  81  64  83 /   0  20  10  30
MCO  67  85  66  86 /   0  20  10  30
MLB  68  80  66  81 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  68  81  66  82 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  66  86  65  86 /  10  30  10  30
SFB  66  84  65  86 /   0  20  10  30
ORL  66  84  66  86 /   0  20  10  30
FPR  67  81  64  83 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion