Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

202
FXUS62 KMLB 241047
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
647 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Expect another round of scattered showers and storms today,
  concentrating with 50-60% coverage near and west of Orlando by
  late afternoon and evening. Localized torrential rainfall
  amounts exceeding 3", brief wind gusts to around 40-45 mph, and
  frequent lightning will accompany the strongest storms.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents has been extended
  through Memorial Day. Continue to refrain from swimming in the
  Atlantic. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues as highs jump
  into the lower 90s over the interior.

- Storm chances look to decrease on Memorial Day and Tuesday.
  However, a pattern change is expected by mid to late week,
  bringing greater coverage of rain and storms to Central Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Deep-layer ridging remains entrenched over Florida early on
this Sunday morning, with H5 heights approaching the moving
climatological maximum for late May (591 dam). Beneath it,
seasonably rich moisture continues to be transported over the
area courtesy of southeast breezes off the Atlantic. Surface high
pressure is anchored near Bermuda, with its axis situated over
the Deep South.

The northern hemispheric H5 chart is littered with cut-off
features and blocking highs, which act to hold up overall pattern
progression. This is fairly commonplace in late spring as the polar
jet relaxes and baroclinicity fades. A branch of the subtropical
jet will continue to feed energy and moisture from Texas to the
Appalachians through the middle of the week. Guidance suggests
that the W Atlantic ridge will hold sway and perhaps retrogress
toward The Bahamas over the next 2-3 days, increasing its influence
over Florida. This should lessen mid-level moisture on Monday and
Tuesday as subsidence builds over the peninsula.

Toward the end of the work week, the grand ensemble continues
to like the development of an omega block over N America. On its
eastern flank, a mid-level trough over New England should sag into
the NW Atlantic, suppressing the Bermuda high and sending the
surface ridge axis southward. Meanwhile, additional subtropical
energy undercutting the omega block is forecast to approach the
state, opening the door for a ribbon of deep tropical moisture
to surge out of the W Caribbean and toward Florida. By Friday,
23/12Z cluster analysis shows meaningful spread regarding the
positioning of subtropical jet stream features and the depth of
the trough over the NW Atlantic. While this muddies the details of
the extended forecast, the overall setup continues to favor
unsettled conditions as May comes to a close.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Tonight...

Early this morning, showers and storms continue along the I-4
corridor. The latest flare-up has occurred from near Daytona Beach
and points northward. Locally heavy rain and occasional lightning
should continue to diminish as we push through the remainder of
the overnight.

Little change to the weather pattern is expected through
the day. Convection-allowing guidance once again shows a few
showers and storms developing on the Atlantic sea breeze as it
pushes inland from midday into the afternoon, with a potential
collision with the Gulf breeze by evening somewhere between
Orlando and Tampa. Overall, rain chances today range from 20-40%
along I-95 to 60% near and west of Orlando.

As was the case earlier tonight, those who get caught beneath these
slow-moving storms will experience torrential rainfall amounts of
2-4" on a localized basis. This can cause minor flooding, especially
if it occurs in populated areas. Wind gusts from 40-45 mph, frequent
lightning, and small hail can also be expected from the strongest
storms. Showers and storms may linger near or especially west of
Orlando after sunset. Later in the overnight, HREF members suggest
that some showers may brush the coast, so we have deviated from
the NBM and added slight rain chances to account for this.

Daytime highs will be hot again today, with upper 80s to lower
90s. Lows tonight will range through the 70s, with some island
communities perhaps not falling below 80 deg F. Widespread Moderate
(and localized Major) HeatRisk continues. Take frequent hydration
breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C if you feel unwell.

The long fetch of southeast breezes will keep surf at 3-4 ft,
prolonging the High Risk of life-threatening rip currents.

Memorial Day - Tuesday...

We still anticipate a bit of a lull in rain/storm coverage during
this timeframe, as low as 20-40% even over the interior, as the
upper high strengthens and some mid-level drying takes place for
a short time. The bigger story will be continued above-normal
temperatures and the risk of heat-related illness, especially for
those with compromised health.

The High Risk of rip currents has been extended through at least
Memorial Day.

Wednesday - Next Weekend...

A trend toward wetter weather still appears on track beginning
Wednesday. An uptick in deep moisture will be responsible
for greater coverage of showers and storms on Wednesday and
Thursday. Then, from Friday into next weekend, subtropical
energy increases as the ridge collapses, potentially delivering
offshore flow to east central Florida. Weak and poorly defined
disturbances in the subtropical jet will likely influence daily
coverage as well. All told, statistical guidance escalates rain
chances from 60-70% on Wed/Thu to 70-90% beginning Friday. For the
72-hour period ending Sunday morning (5/31), there is a 20-40%
chance of 2" of rain, with 10-20% chances of 3"+ from Melbourne
southward. Locally higher amounts should be anticipated.

Highs in the upper 80s/low 90s late in the work week should settle
toward the mid/upper 80s next weekend as cloud cover becomes
more prevalent.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the Western
Atlantic. The surface ridge axis remains well north of the local
waters through early this week, allowing moderate to occasionally
fresh southeast breezes to continue. A few showers and storms are
forecast, especially at night and in the morning. Late this week,
the surface high may settle toward South Florida, increasing the
risk for offshore-moving showers and storms.

Through mid-week, SE winds 12-18 kt with gusts into the 20-23 kt
range behind the sea breeze. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 5
ft well offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

A period of MVFR CIGs possible this morning esp where heavy rain
fell last evening/overnight. Starting with VCSH at coastal
terminals based on current radar and eventual sea breeze
development later this morning. The sea breeze will push inland
steadily enhanced by gusty SE winds 20-25kts behind it. Expect an
earlier onset of TSRA at MCO with VCTS starting at 18Z and have
inserted a TEMPO there from 19Z-22Z. Have higher confidence in the
slightly later TEMPO at LEE which will be closer to the late day
sea breeze collision.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
MCO  90  75  90  75 /  60  10  30  10
MLB  88  79  88  79 /  30  20  10  10
VRB  88  79  89  79 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  40  20
SFB  91  75  91  76 /  50  10  30   0
ORL  90  76  90  76 /  60  10  30  10
FPR  88  78  88  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion