Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

857
FXUS62 KMLB 102035
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
335 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sunday behind a cold
  front. Don`t be fooled by favorable morning conditions.

- Turning noticeably cooler Sunday night and Monday; Windy along
  the coast.

- Rain chances increase mid week followed by sharply colder
  temperatures late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Thru tonight...Motion of the diurnal cumulus cloud field in
GOES-16 VIS sat imagery nicely trace out the location of the low
level ridge axis across central FL. A mild night ahead with lows
in the low to mid 60s. Stratus and patchy fog will spread eastward
from the Gulf coast in developing westerly flow late tonight. This
should reach at least Lake county by sunrise and possibly spread
to the Orlando metro before lifting by mid morning. Additional
patchy fog will be possible over southern section where winds will
be light invof the ridge axis.

Sun-Mon...A cold front will approach the area Sunday morning and
sweep through the area Sunday afternoon. Majority of model
guidance indicates isolated showers will develop ahead and with
this frontal passage, mainly across northern portions of east
central Florida. Have therefore kept a slight (20%) chance of
showers across to north of the Orlando metro area Sunday.
Temperatures will only rise into mid 70s across Lake/Volusia
before the frontal passage. Max temps farther south will once
again reach the low to mid 80s with near record highs possible for
the Treasure coast (VRB/FPR). Winds will become north- northwest
behind the front up to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Winds will
continue to increase, becoming windy along the coast late
afternoon into Sunday night with sustained winds between 20-25 mph
and gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. This is just below our Wind
Advisory criteria. Wind speeds across inland areas Sunday night
will not be as strong, but will still be around 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 20-25 mph at times.

Drier and much cooler air will filter in behind the front Sunday
night, with temps Monday morning dropping to the mid to upper 40s
northwest of I-4 and in the 50s for most locations to the south.
Highs will be near to slightly cooler than normal on Monday, ranging
from the mid to upper 60s near to north of Orlando and low 70s to
the south. Lows into Monday night will be similar to the night
prior, but with lighter winds.

Tue-Sat (modified)...Front stalls south of the Florida peninsula
Tuesday before lifting back northward into south Florida midweek.
At the same time an advancing, energetic trough will push a strong
cold front into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and through the
region Thursday. Mostly dry conditions will prevail into Tuesday,
but increasing overrunning moisture into Wednesday and ahead of
the approaching strong cold front will lead to an increase in rain
chances Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances rise to 40-50% and
there may be enough instability for a few storms to develop into
Wednesday afternoon, mainly south of Orlando. Gusty west to
northwest winds will advect drier and colder air across the area
late Thu and Fri. Then onshore flow returns Sat as high pressure
pushes offshore with dry conditions and moderating temps.

In terms of temperatures, highs will be very close to normal in
the low to mid 70s on Tuesday, with increasing clouds and precip
dropping highs to the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday and then
falling further to the 60s area wide on Thursday as front begins
to move through. Model guidance remains in good agreement showing
sharply colder temperatures moving in behind the front to end the
week. Lows are currently forecast in the 30s to low 40s Thursday
night, with highs only in the low to mid 60s on Friday. Chilly
conditions again forecast for Friday night, with lows in the mid
30s to mid 40s. More seasonable highs forecast for Sat from the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Ridge axis will continue to shift south and east away from the
area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. In response,
winds will veer out of the W/SW late tonight through Sun morning.
Boating conditions will be favorable early Sun with offshore flow
10 knots and pretty flat nearshore seas. But conditions will
deteriorate quickly from north to south during the day, esp
during the afternoon. North winds increase 15-25 knots behind the
front Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, building seas up to
6-9 feet. Small craft advisories will go into effect during the
day Sunday for the adjacent Atlc and intracoastal waters.

Boating conditions remain poor to hazardous into Monday as winds
veer to the northeast. Wind speeds will be 15-20 knots in the
morning, decreasing to 10-15 knots by the afternoon, with seas
holding at 6-9 feet across the Gulf Stream. Boating conditions
improve Tuesday as onshore winds decrease further to 5-10 knots
and seas subside 3 FT nearshore and 4-5 FT offshore. West winds
return Wed and increase Thu as another strong cold front crosses
the area. The offshore winds Wed will keep seas 2-3 FT then build
to 5-7 FT offshore Thu.

Isolated showers will be possible tonight as well as with the
front Sunday into Sunday night. A higher coverage of showers and a
few storms Wed/Wed night.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 102 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR this afternoon and evening. South winds increase to around
9-12 kts this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening, gradually
shifting west through the overnight as a cold front approaches
central Florida. Low stratus across portions of west Florida
tonight builds eastward with potential impacts at LEE. Additional
CIG impacts are forecast across much of east central Florida along
and behind the front, mostly after 18Z Sunday. Winds shift north
behind the front tomorrow, becoming breezy and gusty into the late
afternoon, especially along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  74  50  65 /   0  20   0  10
MCO  64  79  51  69 /   0  20   0   0
MLB  63  80  56  70 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  62  82  58  71 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  61  73  44  65 /   0  20   0   0
SFB  61  77  49  67 /   0  20   0   0
ORL  63  76  50  67 /   0  20   0   0
FPR  62  83  58  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion