Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

157
FXUS62 KMLB 080101
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
901 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

- Increasing moisture and unsettled weather pattern will lead to
  high rain chances late week and weekend (~60-80%), with locally
  heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns each day.

- Rain chances will begin to decrease into the early to middle
  portion of next week, but temperatures will rise back to above
  normal values.

- A High Risk of rip currents exists at area beaches through
  tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Rich tropical moisture (PWs 2"+) and a weak low-level trough
continue to spawn a few showers this evening, particularly from
near Orlando to Daytona Beach. Overnight, we anticipate renewed
development of showers especially along the coast, with 40-50%
coverage near I-95 lessening to 10-20% well inland. There is
plentiful instability, so at least low lightning probabilities
continue.

Made some modest adjustments to rain/storm chances on Friday.
Plentiful cloud cover may work to offset the very moist
environment, but with this disturbance moving overhead, it does
look unsettled. Expect 50-60% coverage near the coast (peaking in
the morning and early afternoon) before chances ramp up to 60-80%
over the interior from mid afternoon through early evening.
Depending on our instability, wet microburst gusts from 40-50 mph
and localized flooding appear to be the primary storm hazards.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Currently-Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
continue to develop inland, west of I-95 through mid to late
afternoon, with PoPs up to 60-70%. However, isolated onshore
moving showers and storms will still be possible along the coast
behind a somewhat diffuse east coast sea breeze. Hi-res guidance
then has greatest coverage of this activity focused across west
central Florida later in the day and evening where outflow/sea
breeze boundary collisions occur. Isolated stronger storms will
still be possible, mainly across the interior, producing strong
wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3
inches. A slow moving trough over the Bahamas will continue to
approach the area tonight, with convection increasing across the
coastal waters. Southeast steering winds will be able to transport
isolated to scattered showers and storms onshore, especially
through the overnight hours. Have therefore maintained PoPs up to
30-50% along much of the coast into tonight.

Friday-Sunday...Weak frontal boundary will continue to linger across
north to north central Florida Friday and into the weekend. This
feature combined with a passing inverted trough will maintain deep
moisture across the area, with PW values around 2.0-2.3 inches. High
rain chances (~70-80%) are therefore forecast across the area each
day. Rain chances peak into the afternoon/early evening as scattered
to numerous showers and storms develop along a diffuse inland moving
east coast sea breeze, with greatest coverage focusing across west
central Florida late day. However, a predominant low level E/SE flow
will be able to transport scattered showers and storms onshore along
the east central Florida coast even during the nighttime and morning
hours. One of the primary concerns will be the threat for locally
heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches each day from slow moving or repeated
rounds of heavier showers and storms. This will cause mostly minor
flooding issues, but may lead to isolated instances of more
substantial flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas across any
locations that see repeated rounds of heavier rainfall over the next
few days. The potential for a few stronger storms will continue each
day, capable of producing strong gusty winds and frequent lightning
strikes.

Increased rain chances and cloud cover will keep highs closer to
normal, in the upper 80s to low 90s, but peak heat index values will
still reach around 100-105 degrees ahead of showers and storms. Warm
and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the mid
to upper 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...Deeper moisture shifts west of the area into
early next week as a ridge builds in aloft through Wednesday.
Onshore flow prevails as surface ridge axis remains north of the
area. This will all contribute to lowering rain chances during this
period, with PoPs falling to 50-70% Monday and 50-60% Tuesday
through Wednesday. The onshore winds will focus highest shower/storm
chances inland and toward the western side of the Florida peninsula
each afternoon and evening. However, isolated to scattered onshore
moving showers and storms will continue to be possible along the
coast overnight and into the morning hours. As rain chances
decrease, temperatures will climb, with highs rising back to the low
to mid 90s across the area. Peak heat index values will also
increase to around 102-107 degrees for most areas, but some spots
may reach a little higher toward midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...A stalled frontal boundary and passing weak trough
will lead to increasing moisture and above normal shower and storm
development across the coastal waters late week and into the
weekend. Main storm threats will be cloud to water lightning strikes
and gusty winds of 30-35 knots. Deeper moisture will then shift
westward with overall coverage of showers and storms forecast to
decrease and be closer to normal into early next week.

Winds remain predominately onshore over the next several days out of
the east-southeast, with wind speeds remaining below 15 knots
outside of convection. Seas forecast to remain around 2-3 feet
through Sunday, but potentially build to 3-4 ft offshore early next
week. Seas locally higher in vicinity of stronger showers and
lightning storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A weak disturbance and added moisture will promote another round
of showers and storms - on a scattered basis through the TAF
period. Highest coverage along the coastal sites tonight and into
the AM before shifting toward the MCO/Greater Orlando area in the
afternoon and evening. Timing highest coverage of storms is still
too low of confidence for TEMPOs. Predominant winds out of the
E/ESE 5-12 KT, primarily VFR conds outside of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  88  76  88 /  60  50  50  80
MCO  77  91  76  91 /  30  80  50  80
MLB  77  89  77  90 /  50  60  40  80
VRB  75  90  75  90 /  50  60  40  80
LEE  76  89  76  90 /  40  80  50  80
SFB  77  90  76  90 /  40  70  50  80
ORL  77  91  76  91 /  40  80  50  80
FPR  74  90  74  90 /  50  60  50  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion