Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

529
FXUS62 KMLB 161852
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Stay weather-aware today! There is a Slight Risk of strong to
  severe storms through mid evening. The primary threats are
  damaging wind gusts over 60 mph and quarter-size hail. There is
  also a small chance of a couple of tornadoes.

- Windy and very warm ahead of the front through mid-afternoon.
  Southerly wind gusts will reach 25 to 30 mph outside of the
  storms. Hazardous boating conditions are expected.

- Sharply colder by Tuesday. Expect wind chills in the mid to
  upper 30s northwest of I-4, and afternoon highs 20 to 25 degrees
  cooler than today. Gradual warming returns later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Current-Tonight...A strong cold front over north FL early this
afternoon is poised to move through ECFL tonight. It will be
preceded by a broken band of strong to potentially severe lightning
storms. While the storms will be dropping from the north/west,
individual storms within this band will be moving rapidly off toward
the northeast at 35 to 45 mph. We will also need to monitor for any
discrete cells out ahead of this line, esp the Treasure Coast. If a
sea breeze is able to develop southward it will be likely pinned
near/at the (Treasure) coast. This could allow for a few strong
pulse (severe) storms here.

Primary storm threats with any storms this afternoon/evening include
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts to
around 60 mph locally, hail to quarter-size, torrential downpours,
and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 500 mb temps remain -11.5C
to -12.5C providing moderate instability. PWATs will be modest at
1.45-1.65 inches. Surface dewpoints will be well into the 60s to
around 70F out ahead of the convection. Timing for the band of
(main) precip approaching from the north/west will be mid afternoon
across the I-4 corridor, late aftn into early evening south through
Osceola/Brevard counties, and early to mid evening for Okeechobee
County and the Treasure Coast. The overall flood threat is lower
today, but if multiple rounds occur where heavy rain fell on Sun,
then we could see some minor urban flooding. Precip averages today
anywhere from 0.25" to 1.00", with isolated spots potentially a bit
higher (up to 2-3" in repeated rounds).

You`ll want to have multiple ways of receiving weather warnings.
Consider checking the Wireless Emergency Alert feature in your
phone`s settings, and make sure weather alerts are enabled.

Even with the increasing cloud-cover, afternoon temps are forecast
in the L80s north of I-4 and M-U80s southward. South winds veering
SW will increase to around 20 mph sustained with frequent higher
gusts (25-35 mph) providing for windy/gusty conditions.

The majority of precipitation will gradually end (north to south)
late aftn/early evening (north) and exiting the Treasure Coast by
mid to late evening. The cold front will follow the precip and
expect a sharp wind shift to W/NW behind it with NW winds this
evening/overnight 10-15 mph with frequent higher gusts. Clouds are
forecast to linger, with gradual improvement across the I-4 corridor
late overnight. Much cooler air will still filter down the peninsula
with min values Tue morning in the L-M40s N/W of I-4, U40s to L50s
south toward Lake Okee and the Brevard coast, with M-U50s further
across the Treasure Coast. Lowest wind chills late overnight into
early Tue morning will be in the M-U30s N/W of I-4, U30s to L40s
coastal Volusia, L-M40s thru Osceola and interior Brevard, and
generally L-M50s southward thru Okeechobee County and much of the
Treasure Coast.

Tue-Tue Night...Much chillier start to the day, with aforementioned
low temps and NW/N winds still 10-15 mph and gusty early in the
period. Max temps forecast in the U50s to L60s I-4 northward &
coastal Volusia, with L60s continuing to Lake Okee, Brevard coast
and interior Treasure Coast. M-U60s possible for immediate Treasure
Coast. Even then, northerly winds will make it feel cooler
throughout the day. Much of the area will also remain with
considerable cloudiness. A few light (20%) showers will be possible
across coastal St. Lucie and Martin counties. Colder temps persist
Tue overnight with L-M40s N/W of I-4 and M-U40s extending down to
Lake Okee. M-U40s for coastal Volusia and north Brevard. U40s to
L50s for south Brevard - Indian River counties and L-M50s for St.
Lucie & interior Martin counties, with U50s for coastal Martin.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified...

Wed-Next Weekend...Due to some discrepancies in the guidance, we
will continue to carry low (< 30%) rain chances over the Treasure
Coast on Wed, perhaps lingering along the coast south of the Cape
into Thu and Fri as well. However, recent trends continue drier.

Florida will be stuck between strong high pressure to the north and
an old surface trough from the Bahamas to the NW Caribbean Sea. This
will cause winds to turn northeasterly, ending the cold advection
and slowly warming our temperatures in time. Temperatures return
closer to normal by Fri, then jump further as we move into the
weekend. There is now a 70-80% chance of reaching 80 deg F + by
Sat and Sun under plentiful sunshine.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Boating conditions worsen and become hazardous as a strong cold
front approaches the local Atlantic. Offshore-moving showers and
lightning storms early-mid afternoon (Treasure Coast) will precede
the front with an additional band of showers/storms moving in from
the west later this afternoon and evening. The potential exists for
gusty winds, coin-size hail, and frequent lightning strikes with
storms. South-southwest winds turn northwesterly and freshen
tonight. The cold front stalls in the southern Bahamas by mid-week
as high pressure moves over the mid Atlc states. Moderate to fresh
onshore winds will result, building seas once again later in the
week.

Small Craft Advisories go into effect areawide this afternoon. Seas
3-6 ft, building to 6-9 ft by early Tue in the Gulf Stream. Seas
diminish to 4-6 ft on Wed, but some 7 ft seas return to the Gulf
Stream on Thu as onshore winds increase due to the former front
located to the south and high pressure building in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA are developing across ECFL ahead of an
approaching squall line/frontal boundary, prompting adjustments to
timing of TEMPOs. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will increase across the
area until the squall line/front sweeps through, and many
terminals could see multiple rounds of TSRA between discrete cells
and the line. +TSRA with convective wind gusts greater than 35
kts and hail possible. Clearing southward between 23Z and 05Z,
then dry conditions. SW winds 15-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts veer NE-
NNE behind the front and decrease a bit to 10-15 kts with gusts
20-25 kts, before gradually decreasing to 10 kts or less Tuesday
afternoon (sooner at a few terminals). MVFR CIGs settle over KVRB-
KSUA tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Numerous showers with scattered lightning storms are forecast this
afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. While wetting
rains are forecast for many places, lightning may still spark new
fires. Much cooler and drier air filters over the district on
Tuesday. RH minima on Tuesday fall to upper 20s to near 40% near
across the I-4 corridor and possibly as far south as central Osceola
County. North winds around 10-15 mph will combine with the dry air
to produce fire-sensitive conditions. RH values recover slightly on
Wednesday and Thursday, then fall into the 35-40% range again on
Friday over the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  60  43  66 /  30   0   0   0
MCO  48  61  46  68 /  30   0   0   0
MLB  51  63  49  70 /  50  10   0  10
VRB  54  65  51  70 /  60  10   0  10
LEE  44  61  42  69 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  47  63  44  68 /  30   0   0   0
ORL  48  63  46  69 /  30   0   0   0
FPR  55  65  51  71 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion