Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

266
FXUS62 KMLB 190501
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1201 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 604 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Much colder tonight. Many areas will experience wind chills in
  the 20s early tomorrow morning, necessitating a Cold Weather
  Advisory for most places. A Freeze Warning has also been posted
  late tonight for the I-4 corridor and surrounding areas.

- Dry through mid week with a return of scattered showers Thursday
  and Friday.

- A steady warming trend is forecast through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Current-Early Monday... A strong cold front has moved south of
Melbourne this afternoon continuing to pass south of the Treasure
Coast. Gusty winds have been observed along and behind the front
with earlier observations around 45-55 mph across the Orlando
Metro. Warmer temperatures and more sunshine across the south has
allowed more mixing of winds above the surface. A peak wind gust
of 58 mph (50 kts) was observed at the Melbourne International
Airport as the front passed and prompted the Wind Advisory to be
upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Brevard, Okeechobee, Indian
River, St. Lucie, and Martin county through 5pm. Elsewhere, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect through 4pm. Behind the initial wind
surge, gusts up to 40 mph remain possible for a few hours, then
remaining breezy into the evening. Beyond wind impacts,
temperatures are rapidly decreasing behind the front. Early this
afternoon, temperatures reached the 70s, including across the far
north at Leesburg where the high was 72 degrees. As of 2PM,
temperatures have already plummeted into the upper 40s and low 50s
north of Orlando. Tonight and into early Monday morning, low
temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s across much of east
central Florida. A Freeze Warning continues for Volusia, Lake,
Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties. Continued north winds
around 5-10 mph will drop wind chill values into the 20s, and a
Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9am for all east
central Florida (excluding coastal Martin county).

Monday-Wednesday... High pressure builds across the southeast U.S.
early this week, shifting into the western Atlantic on Wednesday.
Northerly winds are maintained Monday, gradually turning onshore
Tuesday and into Wednesday. The primary headline early this week
will be continued cold temperatures. Cold weather products including
the Freeze Warning and the Cold Weather Advisory continue through
9AM Monday morning. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will
remain below normal Monday afternoon, holding in the mid to upper
50s near and north of Orlando. Further south, highs peak in the low
to mid 60s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Another cold
start is forecast Tuesday morning with lows ranging the mid 30s to
mid 40s. Northerly winds around 5-10 mph will drop wind chill values
into the 30s across much of east central Florida again Tuesday
morning nearing Wind Chill Advisory criteria across portions of the
north interior. A warming trend begins Tuesday as winds shift
onshore and height anomalies build aloft. Highs ranging the low 60s
to low 70s Tuesday increase into the low to mid 70s areawide on
Wednesday. Dry through the period with no mentionable rain chances.

Thursday-Saturday... Uncertainty exists in the synoptic pattern
through the long term forecast period. A weak surface low attempts
to develop near the Bahamas with a weak boundary extending into the
Gulf. Global model solutions diverge as the next cold front moves
offshore the eastern U.S. into late week and the low near the
Bahamas retreats. There is currently low to moderate confidence
for scattered showers across central Florida Thursday and into
Friday due to a wide variety of global ensemble solutions.
Conditions then trend drier on Saturday. High temperatures are
forecast near to above normal ranging the 70s Thursday and Friday
increasing into the 80s for southern locations on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Marine conditions are quickly deteriorating across the local waters
this afternoon as a cold front moves southward. West winds are
shifting northwest as the front passes, increasing to 25-30 kts
with gusts to gale force along the initial wind surge. Increasing
winds will build seas 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream this afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all legs of the central
Florida Atlantic waters. Winds diminish to 15-20 kts after
midnight allowing the nearshore Volusia SCA to expire at 1AM and
the nearshore Brevard SCA to expire at 7AM Monday. However, Small
Craft Advisories will remain in effect through late Monday
afternoon as hazardous seas slowly subside. North winds shift
onshore into Wednesday as high pressure moves off the eastern U.S.
coast. Weak low pressure near the Bahamas and another approaching
cold front will keep poor marine conditions through mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1201 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Post-frontal, with improving skies - though some TEMPO MVFR CIGs
working thru the area. NWRLY winds near 10 kts and gusty along the
Space/Treasure coasts. These winds continue into Mon, with
diminishing speeds late in day/early evening as high pressure
builds in with MSunny skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast over
the next couple of days. Monday, minimum RH values will tank as dry
air settles across the area, with RH values falling below 35% across
the interior west of I-95. Periods of 10 to 15 mph winds will be
possible on Monday, leading to near-critical conditions at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  39  60  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  58  40  64  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  44  67  55 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  45  69  56 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  58  36  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  38  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  58  39  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  45  70  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion