Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

043
FXUS62 KMLB 150558
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
158 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the surf is highly
  discouraged.

- Warming trend under deep high pressure continues, with near
  record highs in the low 90s forecast across the interior Friday
  into the weekend.

- Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of
  showers returns to the forecast early next week as a weakening
  front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today-Tonight...Deep high pressure over Florida will keep us dry
and warm. Onshore (easterly) flow continues as the ridge axis of
surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic towards Florida
stays just north of the area. A more relaxed pressure gradient
will produce lighter winds today, increasing to 5-10 mph inland,
and to around 10 mph with occasional gusts along the coast in the
afternoon behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s,
possibly reaching the U80s well inland. A few onshore moving
sprinkles embedded in the marine strato cu can`t be ruled out. The
light overnight winds, mostly clear skies, and ridge aloft result
in a little better chance for early morning fog than previous
days, but generally most of the area remains too dry with dew
point depressions 3 degrees or greater. The gap closes enough
along and north of I-4 for a low (less than 20%) chance of patchy
fog early this morning, and again early Thursday morning.

Lingering long period swell will continue to produce dangerous
rip currents at the beaches, and a high rip current risk
continues for the Central Florida Atlantic coastline. Visitors and
residents are advised to not enter this hazardous surf.

Thursday-Sunday...The ridge aloft extending from the Gulf over
Florida is flattened by a passing shortwave Friday, and remains
suppressed through the weekend by a trough swinging across the
eastern US. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure over
the subtropical Atlantic settles south over Central Florida by
Friday, then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend ahead of
an approaching front associated with the trough. Dry conditions
and gradual warming will continue, with near record afternoon
highs in the U80-L90s forecast Friday across the interior through
the weekend. Easterly to southeasterly flow around the ridge plus
the afternoon sea breeze will keep highs in the coastal counties
to the L-M80s. Could see some onshore moving showers from time to
time, especially towards the weekend as moisture increases a bit
in the more southeasterly flow. The additional moisture will also
increase the chances of morning fog across a wider part of East
Central Florida.

Monday-Wednesday...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday
into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers, breezy to
windy conditions in the afternoons, and a slight cool down.
Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking
pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and
GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best
chances for showers, such as they are, at 20-30% in afternoons
across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through
Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual
moisture from the frontal boundary. Breezy to windy conditions are
likely to develop in the afternoons as the pressure gradient
tightens between the front to the south and high pressure behind
the front sliding across the Southeast towards the eastern
seaboard. Temperatures drop back closer to normal with afternoon
highs in the M70s-L80s and overnight lows in the U50s-U60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions through the
weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic
north of the area today gradually drops south into Central Florida
and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high then begins to
retreat eastward over the weekend as front approaches, forecast to
push through late Sunday into early Monday. Easterly winds 5-15
kts today gradually veer more southeasterly and weaken the next
couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light
background flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift between
SE-ESE in the afternoon/early overnight and SSW-WSW late
overnight/early morning with the diurnal sea breeze circulation.
Seas 3-5 ft early this morning settle to 2-4 ft Thursday through
the weekend. A few light showers may develop from time to time,
but otherwise dry conditions. Boating conditions deteriorate
Sunday night as the front arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Predominantly VFR this TAF cycle. Still keeping an eye on FG
potential along/north of LEE/SFB thru 13z. Otherwise, ESE flow picks
up after 15z to around 8-12 kt. Gusts around 20 kt are possible MLB
to SUA, especially along/behind the sea breeze. Winds decrease after
01-03z Thu. with FEW-SCT clouds (occasionally BKN) between FL028 and
FL040 lingering TIX south to SUA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dry conditions prevail and the warming trend continues through the
weekend. Easterly flow gradually weakens and becomes more
southeasterly as the ridge axis of high pressure north of the area
today settles south into Central Florida by Friday. Winds
generally increase to 5-10 mph inland and to around 10 mph along
the coast, while backing easterly behind the sea breeze in the
afternoons and evenings, then become light and possibly variable
overnight. No min RH concerns along the coast. Inland min RHs
30-45%, lowest north of the I-4 corridor, but winds are forecast
to remain below 15 mph and Red Flag conditions are not expected.
High temperatures in the U70s-M80s today increase to the M80s-L90s
going towards the weekend, near high temperature records inland.
There is a low chance for patchy fog along and north of the I-4
corridor early this morning and again early Thursday morning, then
chances increase to more parts of East Central Florida Friday
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  65  80  65 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  79  63  80  64 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  85  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  79  62  81  63 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion