Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

791
FXUS62 KMLB 170525
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
125 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Deep layer high pressure will support mostly dry and warm
  conditions across east central Florida through this weekend,
  with portions of the interior nearing record highs.

- A slight chance for showers Friday morning/mid day along the
  Treasure coast.

- A cold frontal passage Sunday night will bring cooler
  temperatures and windy conditions Monday into Tuesday, including
  hazardous boating conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fri-Sun...Deep layer high pressure at the surface and aloft will
remain in place through the weekend. The warming trend is
anticipated to continue, with highs climbing into the mid 80s and
low 90s nearly areawide across east central Florida. For inland
sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest
potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be
at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below).
Most areas will remain dry, however high res guidance shows
isolated Atlc showers developing offshore the Treasure coast Fri
morning and some of these may push onshore Martin/St Lucie
counties. Light and variable winds in the mornings will turn
onshore behind the sea breeze boundary which will push steadily
inland each afternoon. The sea breeze will be a little delayed
Sunday as it will have to overcome a little stronger offshore
(WSW) flow but will develop nonetheless.

Mon-Thu...A cold front drifts southward across the Florida
peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning, with a low chance
(20-30%) of showers and storms focused primarily south of
Orlando/Cape Monday. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds
south and east across FL with its weakening ridge axis settling
across central FL by Thu. There is a small (20% or less) chance
for isolated coastal showers Wed-Thu.

A tight pressure gradient will produce strong/gusty NE winds that
spread quickly southward behind the front late Sunday night and
early Monday. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
are forecast esp along the coast. Not quite as windy on Tue but
dangerous surf conditions that develop Mon will persist Tue too.
The onshore flow will decrease Wed as the ridge axis approaches
Wed then settles over the area Thu.

Noticeably cooler temperatures behind the front with highs
slightly below normal. As winds decrease and we lose the
northerly wind component (as winds turn more east) midweek, a
gradual warming trend will commence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through this weekend as high pressure ridge
axis settles southward across the waters. As a result, the
background/synoptic wind flow gradually veers more southerly and
weakens around 5 knots. A little steadier offshore (WSW) flow will
develop early Sun. But each afternoon, E-SE wind flow will develop
near the coast at 10-12 knots assocd with the sea breeze
circulation. Primary contribution to seas will be a 2-3 FT swell.
Isolated showers should develop over the southern waters Friday
morning/mid day and may cross portions of the coast south of
Sebastian Inlet.

A cold front is forecast to cross the area Sunday night and bring
rapidly deteriorating boating conditions. NE winds increase 20-25
knots with some higher gusts immediately behind the front with
seas rapidly building 7-10 FT with the highest waves over the Gulf
Stream waters Monday/Mon night. Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed beginning Sunday night. Winds gradually subside into Wed
and become more Easterly as approaching ridge axis eases the
pressure gradient. Seas will be slower to subside esp in the Gulf
Steam but are forecast to fall below 7 FT Wed morning there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Light and variable winds persist at the terminals early this
morning along with mostly clear skies. While there continues to
be some model guidance hinting at a low chance for some patchy fog
development, confidence is not high enough in this to include
within the forecast. Winds pick up to around 10 knots out of the
east after 16Z along the coast and after 19Z across the interior,
becoming light and variable once more late tonight. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast near the terminals, though there is a low
chance for isolated showers near SUA and possible FPR. Did not
include any mention of this within the forecast package, but will
monitor and amend as necessary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in mostly dry
conditions along with a warming trend. Isolated showers are
possible Friday over the Treasure coast counties. Sensitive fire
weather conditions are forecast through the weekend, though light
winds will keep conditions below Red Flag criteria. Light and
variable winds during the overnight and early morning hours will
become onshore each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
develops and pushes inland, with wind speeds reaching 10 to 15
mph. A few gusts near 20 mph will occur especially along the
coast. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 30-35% across
most of the interior counties on Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Along the coast, there are no minimum RH concerns. Afternoon smoke
dispersion values are forecast to be Fair to generally Good
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  89  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  83  66  85  68 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  90  65  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  90  64  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  90  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion