








National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
600 FXUS62 KMLB 160638 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 238 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 - HIGH risk for dangerous rip currents continues today at ALL central FL Atlc beaches. - Rain and lightning storm chances increase northward through the weekend, with scattered showers and storms forecast across much of the area by Sunday. - Persistent onshore flow will keep max temperatures at the coast near normal, but slightly above normal heat expected inland through the weekend and much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 This Weekend...Few showers along the Treasure Coast this morning. High pressure centered off of the Carolina coast pushes further seaward continuing an onshore wind flow across ECFL. This will allow a diffuse sea breeze to develop fairly early in the day and push well inland with an eventual collision with its west coast counterpart near the Lake/Sumter County border late both days this weekend. Storm steering is fairly light and often variable so there will be no push back toward the coast in the evening. Temperatures at 500 mb are relatively cool at -9C to -10C. PWATs are just modest across the eastern peninsula with greater values across WCFL. Cannot rule out ISOLD-WDLY SCT (20-30%) convection generally inland from the coast with sea breeze push inland, with most locations staying dry, but highest PoPs will be well into the interior (40-50% Lake County). Primary storm impacts will be lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 40 mph locally, small hail, and downpours. Slightly above normal max temperatures continue inland each afternoon in the U80s to L90s with M80s at the immediate coast. Peak afternoon heat indices will be in the L-M90s nearly areawide with a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. Min temps in the U60s to M70s and possibly some U70s across barrier islands. Enhancement from the sea breeze will continue to increase onshore winds to 10-15 mph, up to 15-20 mph along the coast in the afternoons with frequent higher gusts. A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will exist at ALL central FL Atlc beaches this weekend. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged. If you must enter the surf, only do so at a life-guarded beach and never swim alone! Mon-Fri...Surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlc will keep an east-west oriented ridge axis north of the area through Wed night, gradually settling southward Thu/Fri with the approach of a frontal boundary that will lose steam and become quasi-stationary over the Deep South. This will allow for deeper moisture to surge across the FL peninsula thru late in the period. Onshore flow continues through at least Wed night gradually veering a bit more SERLY on Thu as the pgrad weakens. Wind speeds generally 10-15 mph each day, but locally higher in association with sea breeze passage. Diurnal shower and storms forecast thru the period. PoP chances 20-40% and localized 50% for some next week. Storm steering remains light and generally toward the west coast thru at least Thu. Greatest chances for convection in the morning/early afternoon along the coast and mid-late aftn and early evening across the interior. Consistently warm with a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk each day. Highs in the M-U80s near the coast and around 90F to L90s into the interior. Persistent low temps in the U60s to M70s across ECFL. Peak heat indices in the L-M90s, locally U90s; U90s to around 100F areawide on Fri. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 Current-Wed...Generally favorable boating conditions thru the period as high pressure is centered to the north off of the southeast U.S. This will provide for mainly onshore winds and a tighter pgrad thru Tue evening, speeds 12-18 kts for much of this time, then winds diminish just a bit into mid-week. A sea breeze will develop each day and push well inland, therefore not expecting push-back of storms to the coast. Seas continue mainly 2-4 ft, perhaps building up to 5 ft at times offshore late Mon into Tue. ISOLD to SCT shower and storm chances, highest offshore & south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 158 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 Isolated showers possible along or just offshore from the Treasure Coast through around 14Z, with VCSH included. Then, mostly dry conditions prevail, with a sea breeze collision near KLEE in the late afternoon. Have included VCTS there, with any activity then diminishing through the evening hours. SE winds prevail, becoming breezy, with gusts 20-25 kts, behind the sea breeze, especially along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to provide an onshore wind component across the area this weekend. A diffuse sea breeze will develop each day and spread inland with eventual collision with the west coast sea breeze late and highest shower and storm chances well inland to across west central Florida. Moisture values increase keeping min RH values above critical. East-southeast winds each day will increase to 10-15 mph, except 15-20 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts with gusts to around 25 mph here. Generally Good to Very Good dispersion each afternoon through Monday. Will monitor this morning for isolated showers along the Treasure Coast. Lightning storm chances today 20-30%, generally inland from the coast, except 40-50% for western Lake County - closest to the late day/evening sea breeze collision. Shower/storm chances on Sunday range from 20-30% along the coast and 30-54% through the interior. For Monday, 20-30% along/north of I-4 and generally 40-50% southward. Slightly above normal max temperatures inland with high temperatures in the U80s-L90s, and M-U80s near the coast through Monday. Peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M90s areawide, and a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 75 87 74 / 10 0 20 10 MCO 90 73 88 72 / 20 10 40 10 MLB 86 77 86 77 / 10 10 30 10 VRB 87 76 86 77 / 10 20 30 30 LEE 91 73 90 72 / 50 30 50 20 SFB 91 73 90 72 / 20 0 30 10 ORL 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 40 10 FPR 86 75 86 75 / 10 10 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Wishard
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Overnight![]() Mostly Clear |
Saturday![]() Slight Chance T-storms |
Saturday Night ![]() Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance T-storms |
Sunday![]() Chance T-storms |
Sunday Night ![]() Chance T-storms then Chance Showers |
| Lo 80 °F | Hi 84 °F | Lo 81 °F | Hi 84 °F | Lo 82 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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