Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

761
FXUS62 KMLB 171059
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
659 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Much colder temperatures return today! Expect wind chills in
  the mid 30s to low 40s over the interior and Volusia coast this
  morning and on Wednesday morning. Highs will struggle to reach
  the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon.

- There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at our
  beaches today. Poor to hazardous boating conditions also
  persist.

- Expect a slow warming trend later this week, with highs
  returning to the 80s by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

A sharp upper-level trough over the Great Lakes has pushed a surface
cold front down the Florida Peninsula this morning. Unseasonably
rich, tropical moisture is being scoured out as cold, dry
continental air rushes down the state. Over the next 24 hours,
additional polar jet stream energy spanning western Canada will
force this upper trough eastward, causing it to become positively
tilted as it elongates from New England to the western Gulf. With
the upper flow becoming parallel to the boundary, the cold front
should stall over the Bahamas.  High pressure will pass well north
of Florida, arriving over the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday.

While the cool down is impressive, a limited duration of cold
air advection is anticipated before low-level flow reverts back
onshore by mid-week. H925 (3 kft) temperatures by this morning are
forecast to fall to around +1 deg C over the northern reaches of
Central Florida, which is approaching the climatological minima for
mid-March. These values recover to around +10 to +12 deg C area-wide
by Thursday, which is still below normal but is reflective of the
slow moderation that is forecast as flow turns onshore.

16/12Z cluster analysis remains in decent agreement through the
remainder of the work week. Downstream of the exceptionally stout
heat ridge over the Desert Southwest, the lingering trough over
Florida should slowly migrate eastward, its axis far enough east
to inhibit substantial moisture advection. Sub-1" PWATs are likely
to reach the Treasure Coast by this evening, and guidance keeps
near-to-below normal moisture in place through at least Saturday.

Through the weekend, around 80% of the members support
a de-amplified northern stream, preventing any fronts from
reaching the Sunshine State. Surface high pressure should
reside close by. Consequently, slow and steady warm advection should
persist, pushing H85 (5 kft) temperatures closer to normal by the
weekend. Confidence decreases in about a week as members diverge,
with some supporting a trough developing over New England. A
dissipating front could approach the state by next Monday or
Tuesday, followed by fresh onshore flow as strong high pressure
builds back over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Aside from the below normal temperatures early on, this pattern is
unlikely to bring significant weather impacts to Central Florida
over the next week.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Wednesday...

The big story today will be the much colder air. By daybreak,
locations north of a Melbourne to Okeechobee line should fall
into the 40s, with low 40s north of Orlando. There is at least a
50% chance of wind chills dipping into the mid to upper 30s this
morning, north of Kissimmee to Titusville. You`ll want an extra
layer or two through the day, as persistent north breezes and
intervals of cloudiness limit our ability to shake off the chilly
temps. Highs should only reach the upper 50s to mid 60s, at least
20 to 25 degrees colder than yesterday. In fact, some locations
may tie or set their coldest recorded high temperature for today`s
date.

There should be a break from any showers this morning. However,
favorable positioning of the upper jet over Florida may interact
with lingering moisture south of Orlando to produce a few more
showers this afternoon and evening (20-30%). These should decrease
later tonight, with the slight chance for showers focused along
the Treasure Coast on Wednesday.

It will remain much cooler than normal over the interior and
northern areas tonight, with widespread low-mid 40s except for the
immediate Space/Treasure Coasts (upper 40s-low 50s). Wind chills
may once again fall into the upper 30s on Wednesday morning over
the interior and Volusia County. Expect more sunshine on Wednesday
afternoon, boosting highs into the mid 60s to the low 70s as
northeast winds increase.

Beach-goers should stay out of the Atlantic today due to numerous
rip currents and a southward-flowing longshore current. The rip
current risk will likely remain high into Wednesday.

Thursday - Friday...

Breezy onshore flow persists late in the week, with some indication
that somewhat greater moisture may skirt the coastline. This may
bring occasional cloud cover or a shower to the coast (20-30%),
but much dry time is expected. Temperature moderation continues,
but readings should still be below normal (70s in most spots).

Weekend - Early Next Week...

High pressure drifts southward, settling over Florida through
the weekend. Any major disturbances look to stay well north of
here, so one should expect pleasant conditions with plentiful
sunshine. Low to mid 80s are forecast through at least Monday,
except for some upper 70s at the coast on Saturday.

A weak front or reinforcing surface high to the north is likely to
increase winds off the Atlantic beginning next Tuesday. Temperatures
may cool a bit in response, with perhaps a few rain showers
accompanying the wind surge.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Hazardous conditions continue this morning due to strong northwest
breezes and building seas. A cold front exits toward the Bahamas
today before becoming stationary on Wednesday. High pressure over
the Plains will quickly migrate toward the east, extending from
the Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic states by Thursday. Winds will
veer onshore on Wednesday, remaining moderate to fresh at times
through at least Thursday. High pressure then settles over Florida
this weekend.

Seas 4-5 ft nearshore building to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream
today. On Wednesday, seas around 4 ft nearshore, up to 6 ft in the
Gulf Stream. Fresh onshore breezes may cause 7 ft seas to return
to the Gulf Stream on Thursday. Seas remain 4-6 ft even into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Skies have cleared at KLEE-KDAB, with VFR cigs holding on this
morning from KMCO-KISM-KTIX southward through KMLB. Across the
Treasure Coast MVFR cigs will likely continue through this
morning, and are forecast to continue much of the day at KSUA.
Some light showers and sprinkles may redevelop near to south of
KMLB, mainly into the afternoon, and have continued VCSH in the
TAFs for these sites. However, this rainfall should produce no
significant visibility reductions.

N/NW winds up to 10-15 knots will diminish to 6-8 knots into
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Brisk, drier air punches southward into Central Florida today
as a cold front moves out to sea. With north winds around 8-12
mph, min RH values fall to 30-35% along and northwest of I-4
this afternoon. Fire-sensitive conditions are expected over this
area. This general vicinity will also have the lowest RH values on
Wednesday afternoon, 35-40%. Winds on Wednesday turn northeasterly,
8-12 mph. Some RH recovery is forecast on Thursday.

As temperatures turn warmer, RH minima will trend lower from
Friday through the weekend, ranging from 30 to 40% over much of
the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  44  66  51 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  61  47  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  63  50  70  57 /  20   0  10  10
VRB  63  52  71  57 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  61  41  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  61  44  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
ORL  62  46  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  64  50  71  55 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion