Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

530
FXUS62 KMLB 221148
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
648 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

- An approaching cold front brings breezy conditions and a chance
  of showers today

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today and
  continue through Tuesday before improving mid to late week

- A high risk of rip currents along with rough surf is forecast
  at the local beaches on today and Tuesday; entering the surf is
  not advised

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Today-Tuesday...Upper level trough over Maine today will slowly
shift eastward out into the Atlantic into Tuesday as a new trough
forms over the Great Lakes region. At the same time, an upper level
ridge over the Deep South and the Florida peninsula will remain in
place through Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will continue
to slide southward across the Florida peninsula, clearing east
central Florida by Monday evening. High pressure across the
southeast US today will build across the Florida peninsula behind
the cold front and shift offshore into the Atlantic on Tuesday.
Locally, northeast winds will increase to 10-15 mph today with gusts
of 20 to 25 mph possible (especially along the coast) as the
pressure gradient tightens slightly over the area. Winds will then
become easterly on Tuesday and decrease to around 10 mph as the
pressure gradient over the local area slackens.

Beach conditions will deteriorate through the day today as winds
increase at the coast. This will create hazardous surf conditions
and a high risk of rip currents at all local beaches both today and
Tuesday. Because of this, entering the surf is not be advised!

Moisture across the local area will increase today with forecast PW
values increasing to  0.8-1.0". This increase in moisture will be
sufficient to support marine stratocu and isolated to scattered
showers across the Atlantic waters, with some of this activity
pushing onshore and inland at times, especially in the afternoon.
This activity will shift southward with the front into South Florida
by early Tuesday morning, with drier air filtering across the area
and leaving mostly dry conditions across east central Florida
through the day on Tuesday. No lightning storm activity is forecast
at this time.

Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this
time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s both
today and Tuesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s,
except mid to upper 50s across the NW portions of Lake/Volusia
counties tonight. Cooler air on Tuesday night will allow overnight
lows to fall generally into the 50s, except low to mid 60s south of
Cape Canaveral along the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Upper level high pressure across the Gulf and
Deep south will remain in place through the period as an upper level
trough moves into the upper northeast US and out into the Atlantic.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US on Wednesday will
begin to slowly shift southward over the Florida peninsula on
Christmas Day (Thursday). Locally, this will result in north to
north east winds dominating each day, with speeds generally 10 mph
or less. Drier air will remain in place, leading to no mentionable
rain chances through the period. However, some model guidance is
indicating the potential for some isolated light showers along the
coast, mainly near the Treasure Coast, late Wednesday into early
Thursday as a backdoor front moves through. Given low confidence in
this, have left out any mentionable rain chances at this time.
Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this
time of year with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s both days.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s across the interior, and upper 50s
to low 60s along the coast on Wednesday night, before turning cooler
on Thursday night with lows generally in the 50s.

Friday-Sunday... Upper level trough over the Great Lakes region on
Friday will deepen as it moves across the eastern US into the
weekend, eventually pushing offshore into the Atlantic on Sunday.
Upper level ridging over the Gulf and Deep south will begin to
weaken after Friday as several disturbances from the trough over the
Great Lakes moves into the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure
across the Florida peninsula on Friday will slowly shift westward,
moving into the Gulf and then TX/LA by Sunday. A cold front will
move into the Deep south late Sunday. Locally, winds will shift
westerly on Friday, west to northwest on Saturday, and north to
northwest on Sunday, with speeds generally 10 mph or less. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, turning the winds
onshore along the coast and part way inland in the afternoon. Dry
conditions are forecast through the end of the weekend, with no
mentionable rain chances. Temperatures will remain seasonable to
slightly above normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will generally be in the
50s, with low 60s along the Treasure Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Today-Friday... Deteriorating boating conditions today as a cold
front pushes south across the local waters. Isolated to scattered
showers are forecast through today, mainly from Cape Canaveral
southward. Northeast winds will increase to 15-20 KT in the
nearshore waters and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters by this
afternoon. This will build the seas to 6-8 ft by sunset, and peaking
to around 9 ft tonight. The pressure gradient will begin to slacken
on Tuesday as the front dissipates over South Florida, allowing the
winds to decrease and the seas to subside. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect across the offshore waters starting this morning,
expanding to all the waters this afternoon. The SCA will continue
through Tuesday, gradually dropping as conditions improve as high
pressure builds over the local waters. Favorable boating
conditions return Wednesday and into the weekend with dry
conditions forecast. Seas 3-5 ft Wednesday will subside to 2-4 ft
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR continue today with occasional MVFR CIGs possible along the
coast by this afternoon. Ensemble probs for MVFR CIGs are highest
(20-50%) 21z-05z generally ISM/MLB southward. Breezy NE winds
10-15 kt (15-20 kt MLB to SUA) will gust 20-25 kt at times.
Onshore-moving showers may develop within the SCT/BKN 035-045
layer, mainly affecting coastal sites TIX southward. It remains
possible for a few -SHRA to reach MCO/ISM but probs are too low to
include VCSH mention there. Winds gradually decrease north and
inland, staying elevated MLB to SUA after 00z Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  61  76  55 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  77  62  78  58 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  77  64  77  60 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  78  64  77  60 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  77  59  79  56 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  77  61  79  56 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  76  62  78  58 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  78  64  77  59 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion