Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

990
FXUS62 KMLB 280710
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

 - Cold Morning Temperatures Through Thursday. A Freeze Warning,
   Cold Weather Advisory, and Frost Advisory have been issued for
   portions of east central Florida. Plan to wear extra layers as
   wind chills dip into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

 - Rare, Significant Arctic Cold Outbreak Arrives Saturday Night.
   The current forecast calls for low temperatures in the 20s,
   along with wind chills in the teens, early Sunday morning. Many
   places should fall below freezing again on Monday morning.

 - Increasing Potential For Strong Wind Gusts On Saturday. There
   is a 50-70% chance of peak wind gusts reaching 35-45 mph.
   Consider how adverse windy conditions on Saturday may affect
   your ability to make preparations for the cold arriving
   Saturday night. Dangerous gale conditions are expected to
   develop in the Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Cold, continental high pressure has overtaken the Southeast and
Florida early this morning. A broad trough sits aloft across the
Eastern U.S. The Arctic jet stream, on the south side of a displaced
lobe of the polar vortex, spans across the Great Lakes. Within
the mid-latitude polar jet, a weak disturbance is approaching
Florida from the Red River Valley, and another feature is pushing
into the Pacific Northwest. Extremely dry air is in place through
the troposphere, and H85 (5 kft) temps have fallen to around +4
deg C.

Guidance remains in relatively strong agreement with pattern
evolution over the next few days. Through Friday, the weak
disturbances in the polar jet will quickly cross the Lower 48 and
traverse the base of the Eastern U.S. trough. A ridge over Western
North America will expand poleward by Thursday, connecting with
strong positive height anomalies over the Arctic. At the apex of
the ridge, ensemble means show a wave break over Hudson Bay on
Thursday, which should further dislodge the polar vortex and send
it even deeper into the U.S. on Friday. This will introduce brief
southwesterly flow aloft over Florida, ensuring a short period of
thermal moderation to end the work week.

Any warming will be short-lived, as Florida remains threatened by
a major cold air episode this weekend. As the Arctic jet gets
shunted south of the Great Lakes, it will encounter enhanced polar
and subtropical jet segments over the Southern tier and Gulf.
Nearly all 27/12Z ensemble members depict phasing of the polar,
subtropical, and Arctic jet streams, carving out a very deep H5
trough across the Southeast U.S. by Saturday. This is expected to
spawn a nor`easter that develops near Florida before pulling up
the East Coast. While there remain subtle disagreements with the
depth and timing of the trough, the setup is well resolved.

Model fields have come into strong agreement, supporting a
remarkable parameter space over Florida this weekend. For instance,
NAEFS members indicate that H5 heights bottom out below the CFSR
model climate on Saturday night across NE Florida. H85 temperatures
as low as -8 to -10 deg C are also at or below the 30-year model
climate. Finally, the latest check of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index shows MinT and MaxT values below -0.95, indicative of
conditions approaching the extreme of the EPS model climate.

Behind the nor`easter, dense, cold Arctic high pressure will
be diving into the Southern Plains, producing a strong pressure
gradient over Florida as the low moves away. At its peak, H925
(2500 ft) winds are projected to reach 35-45 kt as the low lifts
northward. The Arctic high reaches Florida by around Monday or
Tuesday, but a lingering trough is favored across the Eastern
U.S. through the middle of next week. While temperature moderation
will commence, it will be slow to occur.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Friday...

With only moisture-starved disturbances passing near the state,
chilly and quiet conditions persist. The overall forecast remains
largely unchanged. Well below-normal temperatures continue to
cause moderate impacts across east central Florida, especially in
the overnight and morning hours.

For those venturing outdoors, early day wind chills will bite,
reaching the mid 20s to low 30s both this morning and tomorrow for
all but the southern Treasure Coast. A Cold Weather Advisory goes
until 9 am this morning for most of the district, and another
will be needed over the same areas, plus inland St Lucie Co.,
early Thursday. Bundle up in extra layers and check in on those
who may not have access to adequate heat/shelter. Wind chills
recover slightly on Friday morning, mostly in the mid 30s inland
to low/mid 40s at the coast.

Lighter winds and dry air will allow for temperatures to plummet,
prompting another bout of freezing temperatures tonight over
portions of east central Florida. The Freeze Warning for the
interior and all of Volusia Co. will expire at 9 am, but go
into effect again for much of the same area late tonight, plus
Okeechobee Co., but excluding Coastal Volusia Co. For Greater
Orlando, freeze probabilities are 30% or less inside the bypass
expressways, but outlying and exurban communities will have a
40-60% chance of a freeze. That risk jumps to 70-90% for areas
like rural southern Osceola County. A Frost Advisory has also been
issued east of the Freeze Warning for late tonight. Frost and/or
freeze conditions will threaten tropical and annual plants -
continue to protect them. For the latest hazards at your location,
please visit weather.gov/mlb.

Despite a few clouds and more sunshine, highs today and Thursday
only rebound into the upper 50s-upper 60s, warmest south. Friday
will be a good day to do any outdoor preparations for this weekend`s
Arctic outbreak, as afternoon highs jump into the upper 60s and
low 70s.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

...Threat Of Damaging Freeze, Arctic Cold Outbreak Continues To
Increase Beginning Saturday Night...

A developing nor`easter is still favored by most, if not all,
available guidance as we push into Saturday. This low will form
very close to Florida before lifting into the Atlantic. As it
passes by early Saturday, we still carry 30-50% chances for rain
showers. Rainfall tallies still look on the light side. By late
morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the
area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west-northwest
winds. A glance at model soundings suggested that peak wind gusts
from 35-45 mph are on the table for Saturday late afternoon and
evening as the low spins up offshore. Keep this in mind when
considering when and how to protect any tender vegetation!

Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night,
pushing Arctic air down the peninsula. Any warming
influence from the Gulf is unlikely to reach east central
Florida due to parcel trajectories originating from the Panhandle
and points north. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday
morning. Temperatures will only slowly moderate, with additional
freezes anticipated on Monday, if not even Tuesday morning.

Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several
updates:

SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     FLZ141-247-254-547.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion