Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

012
FXUS62 KMLB 111116
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
616 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Boating conditions will rapidly become hazardous behind a
  passing cold front this afternoon. Don`t be fooled by favorable
  morning conditions.

- Turning noticeably cooler tonight and Monday; Windy along the
  coast tonight.

- Rain chances increase midweek followed by sharply colder
  temperatures late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Patchy dense fog will continue to be possible
through early this morning. However, higher clouds streaming across
the area, and increasing boundary layer winds across northern
portions of east central Florida should help limit coverage. Any fog
should lift by mid-morning. A cold front will approach central
Florida and move through the region this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered light showers are forecast to develop along and ahead of
this boundary, with a 20-30% chance for showers into the late
morning and afternoon, mainly north of Okeechobee County and the
Treasure Coast. Model guidance has this activity diminishing as it
pushes farther south of Orlando.

While winds will start off out of the west around 5-10 mph this
morning, winds will quickly pick up behind the front out of the
N/NW this afternoon increasing to 15-20 mph along the coast and
10-15 mph across the interior. Gusts are forecast to reach up to
25-30 mph. Then into tonight, winds increase further along the
coast, becoming breezy to windy, especially along the barrier
islands. Northerly winds between 20-25 mph and gusts to around 30
mph are forecast. Some occasional gusts to 35 mph may occur along
the coast, but are not expected to be frequent enough for a Wind
Advisory. Across the interior, wind speeds will remain up to 10-15
mph with gusts at times to 20-25 mph. These rapidly increasing
northerly winds will also lead to a developing strong southward-
flowing longshore current at area beaches this afternoon into
tonight, and have issued a Beach Hazard Statement along the coast
for these conditions.

With the front pushing into northern central Florida earlier in the
afternoon and increasing cloud cover, highs near to north of Orlando
are only forecast to reach into the 70s. However, to the south, max
temps should again rise into the low 80s. Vero Beach and Fort Pierce
are forecast to be within a couple degrees of their record highs
today, so can`t rule out another tied or broken record at these
sites. Temperatures turn much cooler into tonight behind the front,
falling into the 40s near to northwest of I-4 and in the 50s across
much of the rest of the region.

Monday-Tuesday...Winds will veer onshore and gradually decrease into
early this week. After the much cooler start to Monday morning,
highs are forecast to be near to slightly below normal in the
afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 60s near to north of
Orlando and in the low to mid 70s to the south. Lows Tuesday morning
will be similar to the night prior, but with weaker winds. Afternoon
highs will then be slightly warmer and closer to normal values, in
the low to mid 70s for most locations, except upper 60s across much
of Lake and Volusia counties. It will be mostly dry early this week,
but the developing onshore flow should eventually lead to some
isolated showers developing over the coastal waters, and a few of
these may be able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Moisture and rain chances increase into midweek
well ahead of a strong cold front moving into the Southeast U.S. on
Wednesday and as it pushes through the area Thursday. PoPs increase
to 40-50% Wednesday, 50-60% Wednesday night and continue around 30-
50% on Thursday. While rainfall is welcome due to the much drier
than normal conditions of late, rainfall totals don`t look to be
enough to alleviate any of the ongoing abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions across east central FL. Current ECMWF ensemble
guidance only gives around around a 40-50% chance for totals greater
than 0.50 inches from Wednesday-Thursday. Dry conditions then
forecast behind the front Friday and Saturday.

Highs will be near to cooler than normal through midweek from
increasing cloud cover/rain chances and as strong cold front moves
through Thursday, ranging from mid 60s to low 70s for much of the
area on Wednesday and in the 60s Thursday. It will then turn much
colder than normal behind the front Thursday night, with lows in the
30s and freezing temperatures possible, mainly northwest of I-4.
Wind chill values early Friday morning are currently forecast to
drop as low as the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs on Friday then
forecast in the low to mid 60s for most locations. Turning chilly,
but likely not as cold into Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s and highs on Saturday rise into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Boating conditions will start off favorable this
morning, but boaters should be prepared for conditions rapidly
deteoriating and becoming hazardous this afternoon behind a
passing cold front. Winds will become northerly and quickly
increase to 20-25 knots behind the passing front through this
afternoon, with these speeds persisting into tonight. This will
build seas up to 6-9 feet into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory
goes into effect at 1 PM this afternoon across the nearshore
waters of Volusia and Brevard counties expanding southward to the
Treasure Coast waters late this afternoon.

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the passing
front across the waters today.

Monday-Thursday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist as
winds veer north-northeast and gradually decrease from 15-20
knots to 10-15 knots in the afternoon. Seas will linger up to 7-9
feet across the gulf stream waters Monday. Boating conditions then
gradually improve into Tuesday, with N/NE winds decreasing to
5-10 knots and seas falling to 3-5 feet. Boating conditions will
remain generally favorable through Wednesday and then a strong
cold front will move through the area Thursday, with W/NW winds
increasing and boating conditions deteriorating.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible into early this week
across the waters, with coverage of showers and the potential for
a few storms increasing into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 548 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Patchy to areas of fog are steadily pushing eastward into ECFL
this morning, and is forecast to reach LEE over the next hour.
Have included a TEMPO for LEE for 1SM BKN003 through 13Z. Have
also included a TEMPO for MVFR VIS for FPR for some lingering
lower visibility through 13Z. A cold front is forecast to
approach the area this afternoon, moving southward through the
day. MVFR CIGs possible out ahead of the front, particularly at
LEE and DAB. Light and variable winds will become westerly by mid-
morning before veering north-northwest and becoming breezy in the
afternoon behind the front. Gusts to 25 knots will be possible.
Isolated showers are forecast at the interior terminals and from
DAB to MLB along the coast along and ahead of the front. Lingering
shower activity is expected to diminish by 00Z. Breezy north-
northwest winds with gusts 18-25 KT possible are forecast for much
of tonight, turning more northerly overnight before winds
decrease to around 10KT at 07/08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  50  65  52 /  30   0  10  10
MCO  78  51  69  53 /  20   0  10  10
MLB  79  56  71  58 /  20   0  10  10
VRB  82  58  72  58 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  72  45  66  47 /  30   0   0  10
SFB  76  49  68  51 /  30   0  10  10
ORL  76  51  68  53 /  20   0  10  10
FPR  83  58  73  58 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion