Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

969
FXUS62 KMLB 081920
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Dense fog development will once again be possible across east
  central Florida late tonight into Friday morning and again
  Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions persist through Saturday with a return of low
  rain chances near and north of the I-4 corridor on Sunday due to
  the passage of a cold front. Higher rain chances then return
  towards the middle of next week.

- Cooler air arrives behind the front, with morning lows falling
  into the 40s near and north of the I-4 corridor on Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions are forecast late
  this weekend into early next week behind the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Tonight-Saturday...Mid-level ridging is forecast to remain in
place across the Florida peninsula, with the surface ridge axis
remaining draped across central Florida through the remainder of
this week and into the early weekend. As a result, mostly dry
conditions are anticipated to persist across east central Florida
along with prevailing southeasterly winds that will stay around 10
mph or less. There is a low chance for some onshore-moving
showers late tonight into early Friday morning due to the light
onshore flow, but otherwise, the forecast keeps rain chances near
zero through Saturday across the area. Temperatures are forecast
to remain above normal over the next couple of days. Lows each
night only fall in the upper 50s to mid 60s with afternoon highs
climbing into the low 80s Friday and Saturday. While most areas
are forecast to remain below record high temperatures, Leesburg is
forecast to come within a degree of two of their record highs on
Friday and Saturday.

With the high pressure extending towards the peninsula and light
winds forecast each night across east central Florida, fog
development continues to be a concern. Across the local area, fog
is forecast late tonight into early Friday morning, with areas
across the interior and north of the Cape anticipated to have the
best chances for dense fog development. Visibility reductions of a
mile or less will be possible, with some spots potentially
falling to one-quarter of a mile or less. Plan ahead for the early
morning commute on Friday and be sure to always slow down, use
low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance
between vehicles if out driving. Additionally, mariners should
also keep fog in mind, as some patchy fog development across the
local waters north of the Cape will be possible. Looking ahead,
fog development is forecast once again early Saturday morning. Any
fog that manages to develop on either Friday or Saturday morning
is anticipated to diminish mid to late morning after the sun
rises.

Sunday-Thursday...The pattern shifts as a mid and upper level
trough swing across the eastern US late this weekend, with a cold
front forecast to move southward across the Florida peninsula on
Sunday. Global models have come into better agreement relative to
activity out ahead of the front, and the NBM finally shows a low
chance (20%) for rain near and north of the I-4 corridor on
Sunday. Continued to nudge the forecast a bit more towards the
global models, resulting in a bump to 20-30% rain chances across
this area. Elsewhere, there is lower confidence on seeing any
shower development. Behind the front, winds shift to out of the
north-northwest, increasing to 10 to 15 mph areawide through
Monday. This will help advect a slightly cooler, drier airmass
across east central Florida as an area of high pressure builds
across the southeastern US Monday into Tuesday. Winds then become
lighter around 5 to 10 mph Tuesday out of the east, becoming more
westerly into Wednesday. Long-range global guidance continues to
hint at a return of moisture across east central Florida towards
the middle of next week as a series of low pressures develop in
the Gulf and move northeastward across the peninsula, eventually
dragging a cold front across the peninsula late next week. Rain
chances increase to 35-50% on Wednesday and Thursday as a result
of this pattern, with low confidence on any sort of storm
development with this activity at this time.

A tight temperature gradient will be present on Sunday as the
cold front makes its way across the peninsula, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s north of the I-4 corridor and in the low to mid
80s southward. By Sunday night though, cooler temperatures are
forecast to arrive with lows falling into the 40s north of the I-4
corridor and into the 50s southward. Winds remain around 10 mph
into the overnight hours, resulting in wind chill values of 35 to
45 degrees across interior portions of east central Florida and
areas along the coast north of the Cape. Afternoon highs will be
noticeably cooler on Monday in the 60s to low 70s, warming
slightly into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lows gradually warm through early next week as well, generally
reaching the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday through Wednesday nights.

Another concern to monitor is the potential for deteriorating
beach conditions behind the cold front. While ocean temperatures
are currently sitting in the mid 60s to mid 70s from north to
south along the east central Florida coast, those looking to brave
the cool waters early next week may need to make alternate plans.
Increasing north winds behind the cold front are anticipated to
lead to building seas, which will result in rough surf as well as
a high risk for rip currents, especially on Sunday and Monday.
Entering the ocean in these conditions is strongly discouraged.
Continue to monitor the forecast closely and as always, heed the
advice of local beach safety officials.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

High pressure remains in place across the local Atlantic waters
through Saturday, resulting in generally favorable boating
conditions through the remainder of this week. South to southeast
winds persist ranging from 5 to 15 knots, with seas remaining
between 1 to 3 feet locally. Mostly dry conditions are also
anticipated, though some isolated shower activity cannot be fully
ruled out at times given the onshore flow. A cold front is
forecast to make its way southward across the local Atlantic
waters on Sunday, with increasing rain chances (30-40%) out ahead
of the front. Behind the front, deteriorating boating conditions
are anticipated, with northeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots
and gusts to 30 knots possible. Seas respond quickly, building to
6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, persisting into Monday. A Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed across the local Atlantic
waters due to the hazardous boating conditions starting sometime
on Sunday and continuing through Monday night. By Tuesday, a
return of favorable boating conditions is anticipated across the
local Atlantic waters, with seas falling below 6 feet and winds
subsiding below 15 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

VFR through this afternoon and evening. Fog will then be possible
again tonight. At this time, the highest confidence resides along
the Volusia coast and at DAB where models suggest areas of sea
fog gradually spreading inland. Additional VIS/CIG impacts are
forecast across the greater Orlando terminals overnight, although
confidence is not as high. East-southeast winds generally remain
less than 10 kts today, becoming light and variable at times
tonight. A few showers are forecast along the Treasure Coast after
06Z and have included VCSH from VRB southward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  79  61  81 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  63  81  63  81 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  63  79  63  79 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  63  80  63  80 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  60  81  61  81 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  61  82  62  82 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  62  81  63  82 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  62  80  63  80 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion