Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

010
FXUS62 KMLB 290058
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
758 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Locally dense fog development likely across east central Florida
  again tonight into Monday morning. Visibility reductions of 1
  mile or less will be possible.

- A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents at all central Florida
  Atlantic beaches continues and remains likely on Monday.
  Entering the surf is not advised!

- A strong cold front is forecast to move across the peninsula
  Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing below normal
  temperatures areawide into the New Year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Dense sea fog that persisted along the Volusia coast this
afternoon overspread coastal Volusia just prior to sunset thanks
to a weak sea breeze and reduced solar insolation/lowering mixing
heights. This prompted a Dense Fog Adv and Marine Dense Fog Adv
for Ormond Beach, Daytona Beach, New Smyrna Beach and the adjacent
intracoastal and nearshore Atlc waters through this evening. Once
a land breeze gets established later this evening, this sea fog
should erode and dissipate. However, conditions are favorable for
another round of (more typical) radiation fog to develop later
tonight into early Mon over land areas. Models are keying in on
Lake, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee over to the coast south of the
Cape.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Now-Tonight...Morning fog and stratus have largely been replaced
with scattered fair-weather cumulus this afternoon as temperatures
climb into the mid 70s. Of note is some marine fog that has
recently moved ashore along portions of the Volusia coast. This
remains localized but worth mentioning, especially for mariners
traversing the nearshore Volusia waters this afternoon. Winds
remain light otherwise, and the east coast sea breeze will turn
wind direction onshore late this afternoon and early in the
evening as it moves inland. Temperatures cool off tonight into the
mid 50s and low 60s once again, with dew point depressions
narrowing after midnight.

Late tonight and into early Monday morning, model guidance points
to more fog development. Favored locations include a large
portion of the Space and Treasure Coasts, extending inland as far
north as Leesburg. Travelers should slow down, use low beam
headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between
vehicles when encountering dense fog.

Monday-Tuesday...Big changes are on the way to our warmer-than-
normal weather pattern, beginning early this week. Ridging aloft
will break down with H5 height falls starting midday Monday,
coincident with a surface cold front making its way south through
the Carolinas, Georgia, and north Florida. We will stay in the
warm sector long enough for temperatures to climb into the upper
70s to low 80s again Monday afternoon, but some morning
fog/stratus could slow the diurnal temperature climb a bit. West-
southwest winds increase to 10-15 mph during the day as the
surface pressure gradient tightens.

These winds will remain elevated Monday night as the front passes
through the area, gusting at times around 20 mph (25 mph at the
coast). Any mentionable rain chances remain offshore over the
Atlantic. Temperatures and dew points are forecast to fall
rapidly after midnight and on into Tuesday morning, along with an
increase in cloud cover. Lows Tuesday morning will range widely,
from the low to mid 40s north of I-4 to the 50s from Orlando
southward (close to 60 in Stuart). Wind chill values could dip
into the mid/upper 30s for a couple of hours across northern Lake
and Volusia counties, generally around daybreak, before
temperatures begin to climb.

A 1035mb surface high builds over the southern Plains Tuesday,
extending east in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.
Efficient cold air advection will make it difficult for our
northern locations to reach the 60-degree mark Tuesday afternoon.
The coldest air of the next seven days moves in Tuesday night and
early Wednesday, dropping lows into the 30s for much of east
central Florida (mid to upper 40s southern Treasure Coast).
12z ensemble probabilities show anywhere from a 40-60% chance of
temperatures dropping below freezing over northern Lake/Volusia
early Wednesday morning. Combined with a northwest breeze around
10 mph, wind chill values are forecast to plummet into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

In addition to a significant change in temperatures, hazardous
beach conditions look to continue for at least another couple of
days, with a high risk of rip currents continuing at area
beaches. Entering the water is strongly discouraged!

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Periodic mid-level troughs
embedded in the W/NW flow will keep "lower heights" across the
region. At the surface, weak high pressure slowly builds into the
region from the NW continuing its influence for much of the week
into the weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected areawide
through at least Saturday morning. Rain chances remain low but do
climb to 15-20 percent Saturday afternoon as another cold front
approaches. Skies look to remain MClear to PCloudy for much of
the extended.

Highs for Wed nearly mirror those on Tue - perhaps a couple
degrees cooler, generally in the 60s Thu/Fri with some 70 degree
readings in south Brevard southward, and a return into the 70s as
we continue the warming trend next weekend.

Winds still forecast around 5 mph for Wed/Thu/Fri night`s so wind
chills won`t be a greater concern as Tue overnight. However, mins
Wed/Thu night`s will still find their way down into the M-U30s to
around 40F across much of the interior and perhaps coastal
Volusia with L-M40s along the immediate coastline southward. Mins
Fri night into Sat morning generally in the 40s areawide. A slow
warming trend Sat/Sun overnight with generally 50s for lows areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Favorable boating conditions will linger through Monday afternoon
with winds generally 10-15 kt or less from the west-southwest. A
strong cold front will approach and quickly move across the local
waters Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds turn northwesterly
and increase to 20-25 kt (gusting up to 30 kt north of Sebastian
Inlet) Tuesday morning, falling to 15-20 kt Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Seas respond, especially in the Gulf Stream, building up
to 5 to 8 feet Tuesday morning through mid afternoon. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued, beginning Monday evening and
expanding to all of the local waters Tuesday morning. Poor to
hazardous conditions are likely to linger through Tuesday evening
before returning to a favorable state mid to late week.

Low rain chances will accompany Monday night/Tuesday morning`s
frontal passage (20-35 percent), mainly over the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Dense fog along the Volusia coast this evening will continue to
sock DAB in LIFR/VLIFR conds through 03Z or so before land breeze
starts to erode the fog bank. Another round of late night/early
morning fog is forecast again at most terminals, including MCO
where there is a chance (~40%) of LIFR conds. Once the CIG/VSBY
restrictions lift 14-15Z Mon, west winds will increase 10G20KT
ahead of a cold front. The front is forecast to cross MCO btwn
01Z-03Z Tue with a gusty NW wind shift.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas of locally dense fog are forecast again tonight into Monday
morning, particularly over interior portions of the area.

Behind Monday night`s cold front, much drier and colder air is
forecast to filter across east central Florida. Sensitive fire
weather conditions may develop Tuesday through Thursday, due to a
combination of lower relative humidity and a light northwest breeze.
Humidity values begin to recover late week into next weekend,
alongside a gradual warming trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  79  44  59 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  59  80  49  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  57  80  49  63 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  56  81  52  66 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  56  78  44  60 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  58  80  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  58  79  49  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  55  81  53  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for FLZ141.

AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion