Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

098
FXUS62 KMLB 110734
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- A high risk of rip currents and rough surf persists at area
  beaches through again today, along with lingering poor boating
  conditions near inlets south of Sebastian Inlet.

- Small precip chances enter the picture Thursday-Saturday, though
  any amounts will be light. Higher chances return Sunday-Sunday
  night with the approach of a stronger low pressure system.

- Generally above normal temperatures continue this week and into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Current-tonight...High pressure weakens and slides south/east of
ECFL through the day, with the approach of a weak trough from the
north. Expect WRLY winds to develop up to 8-12 mph areawide
today. We will see at least one more precip-free day as the
airmass remains fairly dry, but does begin a slow increase of
moistening over the next 24 hours. Another warm day above climo
with highs in the M70s across coastal Volusia/north Brevard
counties and generally U70s elsewhere. Winds tonight decrease to
light SW/WSW around 5 mph. Lows mainly in the L-M50s, perhaps a
few U50s around major metropolitan areas. We will see a return to
overnight/early morning patchy (dense) fog potential ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary.

At the beaches, another HIGH risk of numerous, strong, life-
threatening rip currents continues due to a persistent long period
swell. Rough surf will also be present. Do not let the warmer
conditions catch you off guard. Entering the chilly water is
discouraged!

Thu-Sat...The aforementioned boundary will sag into ECFL during the
day on Thu, with PWATs only increasing to around 1.10-1.15". Latest
model guidance is trying to suggest a low PoP across the area mainly
in the afternoon/early evening with 20-30pct chances, highest
towards the Kissimmee River. Any precip amounts likely small. A low
(20pct) threat continues along the coast thru late evening. Another
small PoP (20-30pct) is forecast on Fri - highest near the coast as
the front and meager moisture lingers. The front becomes more
diffuse late Fri. Winds generally WNW/NW 8-12 mph on Thu, but may
become more N/NNE during the afternoon. A light offshore wind
component Thu night at 5 mph or less, with winds gradually
transitioning onshore 5-10 mph into the afternoon on Fri as the
pgrad is weak. Light onshore flow continues into Sat and will
maintain a low (20pct) PoP along the coast for potential onshore-
moving showers diminishing inland - highest chances in the
afternoon.

Highs Thu may only make it into the U60s across the Volusia cost,
with L70s for north Brevard and interior Volusia, and M-U70s
elsewhere. Similar temps for highs on Fri/Sat, but coastal Volusia
may join the L70s club. Lows continue mainly in the 50s, but perhaps
some U40s around Lake George on Fri morning. Perhaps a few L60s
across ECFL for Sat overnight/Sun morning.

Sun-Tue...Medium range models seem to be diverging for the next
system late Sun/early Mon, with the GFS still slower than the ECMWF.
In the mid-levels, a vigorous trough near the Ark/La/Tex region
(GFS), or perhaps a little further eastward (ECMWF) early in the
period will continue to track eastward thru early Mon morning.
Timing of the next surface cold front is presently corrupted by
strength/speed/placement of mid/upper level features still this far
out. So, currently as a result, the ECMWF is bringing the
boundary thru ECFL Sun overnight and the GFS during the day on
Mon. This has caused for a broad-brush of PoP chances Sun-Mon
(30-60pct). We should be able to better align timing with
consistency in future model runs and as time draws near. We also
introduce a SCHC (20pct) for lightning storms Sun afternoon-Mon.

Temperatures likely affected by clouds/precip associated with timing
of the next system. At present, we are forecasting highs on Sun in
the U70s to L80s, generally 70s areawide on Mon/Tue; perhaps some 80
degree readings towards Lake Okee on these latter two days. Lows in
the U50s to L60s mon morning, and 50s for Tue/Wed mornings. Breezy
and gusty southwest winds ahead of the front on Sun will decrease
and turn northerly behind the front for Mon/Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Weak high pressure settles south/east with the
approach of a trough sliding into north-central FL overnight into
early Thu morning. Generally WRLY winds 11-16 kts away from the
coast, which may pick up to 15-20 kts well offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet late tonight. Seas 3-5 ft subsiding slightly to
nearly 2-4 ft areawide late today into tonight. Persistent long
period swells (~11-13 sec) continue and small craft may need to
Exercise Caution for one more day near inlets during the outgoing
tide. We will see inclusion of ISOLD-SCT shower potential tonight
generally north of Sebastian Inlet.

Thu-Sun...A weak frontal boundary settles across the local waters on
Thu becoming quasi-stationary and gradually decaying through Fri.
The ISOLD-SCT shower chances continue through Sat night, nearly
areawide. A stronger low pressure system (model differences in
timing) moves across the local waters late Sun into Mon of next
week. Shower chances increase to likely thru the day/night on Sun,
with ISOLD-SCT (20-30pct) lightning storm chances also present.

Winds in response to the weak boundary on Thu become NW 10-17 kts,
then northerly in the afternoon with speeds decreasing to 8-12 kts,
potentially veering more NNE/NE Thu night. On Fri-Fri night, light
winds transition onshore (NE/E), continuing E/SE into Sat. Sat
overnight winds continue to veer to SSE/S increasing a bit to 12-18
kts. On Sun, winds continue to strengthen 15-20 kts - perhaps 20-25
kts well offshore depending on timing/strength of the next system.

Seas continue 2-4 ft (perhaps 5 ft seas early in the period well
offshore) into early Sun, then may begin to build 3-5 ft in response
to the increasing winds on Sun, and maybe a little higher into
Sun night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions forecast through this morning into the early
evening hours at all terminals. Southwest winds prevail,
increasing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and falling to around 5
knots into the overnight hours. Model guidance is favoring fog
development across east central Florida late tonight, but still
too early to add in TEMPOs. Will monitor and amend as needed. Rain
is not forecast through today at any of the terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

High pressure will gradually weaken and slide into the southern
peninsula. Mainly SW/W winds today around 5-10 mph. A weak frontal
boundary will drop south across north-central Florida on Thursday,
stalling into south-central Florida and becoming diffuse through the
day on Friday. Changes with the previous forecast include a small
precip inclusion Thursday afternoon and again on Friday. Winds will
turn north to northwest on Thursday, and slowly to northeast on
Friday, with speeds 5-10 mph. Winds continue light onshore into
Saturday. We add a small probability for precip again for Saturday
due to the onshore flow and lingering meager moisture. Any precip
amounts Thursday through Saturday expected to be light.

Min RH values are forecast to be around 35-45% across the interior
today. Min RH values increase to around 50-60% on Thursday, and 45-
55% across the interior on Friday. Smoke dispersion will become Very
Good to Excellent today, and Fair to perhaps Generally Good on
Thursday/Friday.

A stronger storm system moves toward east central FL on Sunday/early
Monday. Timing issues exist, but scattered to numerous showers and a
slight chance of lightning storms accompany its passing late this
weekend into early next week.

Patchy fog is forecast late tonight/Thursday morning and again
Thursday night/Friday morning. This may produce localized
visibilities of a half-mile or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  55  69  53 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  77  57  76  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLB  76  53  73  54 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  77  52  75  55 /   0   0  20  20
LEE  75  56  75  52 /   0  10  20  10
SFB  77  57  75  53 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  77  58  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
FPR  77  51  76  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion