Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

165
FXUS62 KMLB 061126
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
626 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM as wind
  chills reach the mid 20s to low 30s

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions today, becoming hazardous
  across all of the local Atlantic again tonight, particularly in
  the Gulf Stream

- Low humidity and gusty winds combine to produce sensitive to
  near critical fire weather conditions today and Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today-Tonight...Temperatures continue to fall early this morning as
high pressure builds overhead. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect
through 9 AM as a light northwest wind produces wind chill values in
the mid 20s to low 30s. Conditions are not overly favorable for
frost formation, but wind-sheltered and rural areas will have the
greatest potential for patchy frost this morning. Could we see a
handful of 32-degree temperatures this morning? HREF probabilities
for freezing temps have remained nearly the same since yesterday (40-
60%), focused on Lake and inland Volusia counties (Ocala National
Forest). NBM probabilities of reaching 32 degrees or lower are also
30-50% in southern Osceola and far northern Okeechobee counties. So
yes, there may be some spots that reach freezing but it is going to
be very short-lived (1-2 hours).

Temperatures rebound into the low and middle 60s this afternoon as
very dry air produces a clear sky. It will be breezy to gusty at
times, particularly at the coast. Winds stay elevated into tonight
as temperatures retreat into the mid to upper 40s, or about 10
degrees warmer than forecast for this morning.

Saturday-Sunday...Mid level troughing very slowly moves east across
the Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. on Saturday, trailed by ridging
building across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. At the surface,
a reinforcing cold front is forecast to push south across the
Florida Peninsula Saturday morning. The effect of this will be west
winds veering more northerly during the day, gusting at times along
the coast to 25 mph. Due in part to these winds, cooler air will
funnel down the coastline, making for a somewhat chilly day across
coastal Volusia and northern Brevard counties. Highs warm a bit more
south of Orlando, reaching the low 70s.

Efficient CAA and mostly clear skies Saturday night are likely to
bring temperatures down into the mid and upper 30s again,
particularly over interior east central Florida. Coastal spots
will stay closer to the mid 40s and low 50s. For perspective, NBM
probabilities for freezing temps are less than 10-15% for Lake
County Sunday morning. Wind chills will also be less of a factor
as winds lighten, but rural locations could drop into the mid 30s
around sunrise. The eastern reaches of 500mb ridging reach Florida
Sunday, maintaining northwest flow aloft. Surface high pressure
expands over the peninsula, allowing lighter onshore flow to
return to the forecast. Sunday afternoon looks to be a touch
warmer, but the real warming trend starts next week.

Monday-Thursday...A daily warming trend is still on tap for next
week as mostly dry conditions persist. With high pressure solidly in
place, winds look to remain on the light side each day, too. Normal
highs for this point in February are generally in the low to mid
70s, and we are headed for temperatures slightly above that Tuesday
through Thursday. Later in the week, a mid level disturbance moves
overhead, embedded in northwesterly flow. Despite this, dry
conditions prevail. With little rain in sight, ongoing drought
conditions are likely to worsen next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local
Atlantic today and again become hazardous across all marine legs
tonight. Offshore (WNW) winds continue but decrease briefly today,
allowing seas to decrease to 7 feet in the Gulf Stream (where Small
Craft Advisories remain). However, westerly winds strengthen again
this evening into tonight in response to a tightening pressure
gradient. Sustained winds of 25-30 kt are possible in the offshore
waters with at least occasional gusts around gale force. Conditions
and near-term model guidance will be monitored closely, as some
solutions suggest a brief time window of Gale conditions well
offshore. However, confidence in a Gale Watch at this juncture was
too low. Seas build again tonight, reaching 6 to 9 feet (highest
closer to 60 nm). Winds veer north-northwesterly Saturday morning,
then northeasterly Saturday evening. Seas and winds are expected to
remain hazardous for much of the Gulf Stream, with small craft
needing to exercise caution elsewhere.

Winds decrease Sunday into next week as high pressure becomes
established over the local waters. Seas take a bit more time to fall
below 7 feet (not until Sunday night or early Monday). Gradually
more favorable boating conditions return by the early to middle part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 625 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

West-northwest winds pick up to 10 to 15 knots after 15Z, gusting
to 25 knots at times at all terminals. Winds are forecast to
diminish to 5 to 10 knots after 00Z tonight. There are no VIS or
CIG concerns, with VFR conditions anticipated to prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Breezy west-northwest winds 10 to 15 mph (gusts around 20 to 25 mph)
will combine with lower humidity to produce near critical fire
weather conditions today. Despite yesterday`s rain, much of the area
remains in a moderate to severe drought. Winds veer northwest
Saturday morning and around to the north-northeast Saturday
afternoon. Slightly higher wind speeds are forecast along the coast
compared to inland locations, and lower humidity values are
anticipated over interior east central Florida Saturday afternoon.
As a result, at least fire sensitive conditions are likely to
continue Saturday, particularly where winds and lower humidity
values interface. Fire sensitivities will likely persist into next
week as well with dry conditions continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  45  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  49  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  64  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  45  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  62  45  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  48  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  64  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion