Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

212
FXUS62 KMLB 171932
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Another strong cold front will move across east central Florida
  on Sunday. A brief period of widespread wind gusts will increase
  to 25-35 mph along the front with occasional gusts up to 50 mph
  possible.

- Below normal temperatures return to the forecast Sunday and
  Monday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of east
  central Florida late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
  Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed as well on Sunday
  nights.

- High pressure returns to the area behind the front and
  temperatures warm through mid-week. Scattered showers return on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Current-Tonight... A cold front is analyzed across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend region this afternoon. Cloud cover will
continue to build across the region this evening as the front
approaches northeast and central Florida. Increasing cloud cover
combined with light southerly flow should keep temperatures warmer
overnight, with lows in the 50s. Mostly dry through the overnight
with isolated showers beginning to approach Lake and Volusia county
near sunrise, ahead of the front.

Sunday-Monday... A mid/upper level trough swings across the eastern
U.S. and through Florida on Sunday. A cold front advances ahead of
the feature aloft as a surface low lifts across the western
Atlantic. Models continue to show better agreement in precip chances
along and ahead of the front with the best shower chances
(50-60%) near, north, and west of I-4. Low instability and a layer
of dry air in the low levels should limit any lightning chances.
Southwest winds ahead of the front shift northwest as the front
passes late morning and into the afternoon. High res and global
guidance has shown a noticeable wind surge along and behind the
front with 925mb winds modeled around 35-40 kts. At the surface
this could translate to a period of widespread gusts 25-35 mph
with occasional gusts up to 50 mph possible. The wind surge is
forecast to remain brief, limiting the need for a Wind Advisory at
this time. However, a few gusty wind SPS products could be needed
by late Sunday morning and into the afternoon. As northerly winds
increase, a much colder and drier airmass will be advected across
the region. While areas of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast
could see highs in the mid to upper 70s with a later frontal
passage, areas across Lake and Volusia will be limited to highs in
the upper 50s and lower 60s early in the day before temperatures
fall through the afternoon. By early Monday morning, lows are
forecast in the low to mid 30s across much of east central
Florida. A Freeze Watch remains in effect on Monday morning for
Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties where NBM
probabilities suggest moderate to high confidence for temperatures
to reach freezing across portions of these counties. Although the
Freeze Watch covers all of Orange and Osceola counties, freezing
temperatures are less likely (only 10-30%) around major urban
areas including Orlando and Kissimmee. Continued north winds will
drop wind chill values into the mid to upper 20s for much of east
central Florida, and Cold Weather Advisories will likely be
considered for Monday morning. The lightest winds are forecast in
vicinity of Lake George where areas of frost are forecast.
Otherwise, higher winds (5-10 mph) should keep frost widely
patchy. Drier air and building high pressure will keep conditions
mostly sunny on Monday, but temperatures are expected to hold
below 60 for areas near and north of the Orlando metro. Further
south, highs struggle into the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure across the southeast U.S.
shifts offshore into midweek. As the high retreats, a weak inverted
surface trough develops offshore the Florida Atlantic coast ahead of
a larger frontal boundary sweeping offshore the eastern U.S. coast.
Dry conditions persist through Wednesday with a chance for showers
(30-50%) and storms returning to the forecast on Thursday. Low
temperatures hold below normal Tuesday (mid30s-mid40s), continuing a
warming trend into Wednesday (low40s-low50s). Patchy frost will
remain possible for areas north and west of I-4 Tuesday morning.
High temperatures trend into the 70s by Wednesday and into late
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A short period of favorable boating conditions continues today as
high pressure gradually retreats seaward. A strong cold front
approaches the area early Sunday morning, passing the local Atlantic
waters into the afternoon. Boating conditions rapidly deteriorate
behind the front as offshore winds shift north, increasing to 25-30
kts, and a brief period of occasional gale force gusts will be
possible. Seas build 6-8 ft into Sunday night. Small Craft
Advisories will take effect Sunday at 10AM from Flagler Beach to
Sebastian Inlet, extending to include the Treasure Coast waters at
1PM. North winds subside to 15-20 kts through the evening while
hazardous seas linger across the Gulf Stream, gradually improving
Monday. A surface trough develops over the waters into mid week,
maintaining and extended period of poor conditions. Scattered rain
chances are forecast with the front on Sunday, drying behind the
front. Scattered to numerous showers return again Thursday into
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 109 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions generally forecast this afternoon through tonight.
HREF guidance is showing some low end probabilities (less than
30%) for fog development late tonight through early Sunday
morning, south of KMLB, from around 8-13Z. However, not enough
confidence to carry in the TAFs at this time.

A strong cold front will push through the area tomorrow, producing
a relatively brief, but strong NW wind surge as front pushes
through. NW winds up to 20-25 knots and gusts up to 35-40 knots
may occur initially as this boundary moves through, which for the
northern TAF sites looks to occur around 16-17Z, and around 18-20Z
(outside of the current TAF forecast window) farther south. These
stronger winds again should be short-lived, with winds diminishing
into the remainder of the afternoon, but still remaining
breezy/gusty. For the NW surge, currently have winds around 20
knots gusting to 28 knots.

Scattered to numerous showers will also accompany the front, with
greatest rain chances across to north of KMCO (up to 50-60%). A
period of IFR/MVFR cigs will also occur in the afternoon as the
boundary moves through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central
Florida on Sunday, and a dry, cold air mass will settle across the
area behind it. This drier air mass is anticipated to result in
sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values are forecast to
fall below 35% on Monday across portions of the interior on Monday
afternoon and west of the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. North winds
increase to around 10 mph each day, remaining shy of critical
thresholds at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  33  57 /  10  60   0   0
MCO  54  67  35  58 /   0  60   0   0
MLB  55  75  37  61 /   0  30   0   0
VRB  55  77  38  63 /  10  20   0   0
LEE  52  59  31  57 /  20  60   0   0
SFB  53  64  33  58 /  10  60   0   0
ORL  55  65  35  58 /  10  60   0   0
FPR  55  77  38  64 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion