Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

447
FXUS62 KMLB 290551
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
151 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work-week, with
  just isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning
  storms mainly north of Orlando Thursday/Friday afternoons.

- Hot temperatures mid-week into the first half of the weekend
  (near record), especially over the interior.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters
  will promote High Risk of life-threatening rip currents this
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A few light showers have been able to develop along the Treasure
Coast this evening in the ongoing onshore flow. This activity
should diminish overnight as low level winds veer to the south-
southeast. Low end rain chances (~20 percent) have been added
through midnight, mainly across coastal Martin County where the
majority of this activity has occurred. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track, with dry conditions generally forecast and lows
in the 60s for most locations. Weakening winds and mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies will still lead to the potential for patchy
fog across the interior, especially across to northwest of the I-4
corridor from late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Fog
may become locally dense, producing visibilities of a half mile or
less.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current-Tonight...Some nuisance sprinkles/light rain showers across
portions of ECFL this morning and into early afternoon. Have
attempted to handle this most recently with "silent" 14`s
(sprinkles) in the grids/forecast. Any areas that see any precip
will only realize a trace to a few hundredths on average. Some
earlier pockets of low stratus have been stubborn to dissipate, too,
across the I-4 corridor. PSunny skies across the interior this
afternoon with improving skies near the coast as the sea breeze
ventures inland. Onshore winds being realized, with speeds cranking
up to 15 mph this afternoon and early evening behind the sea breeze
and a few higher gusts, too. The onshore flow has kept aftn temps in
the L80s along the coast with M-U80s into the interior.

Winds return to light/calm tonight for Volusia coast and interior,
while they may stay elevated 5-10 mph (onshore component) along the
coast. We may have to monitor for some patchy fog (locally dense)
development late overnight into early Wed morning, esp west of I-95.
Otherwise, generally dry conditions prevail with overnight mins in
the L-M60s, and possible U60s at the immediate coast.

Wed-Wed Night...Weakening surface high pressure ridging settles
across central FL early, continuing southward toward the FL Straits
by late in the period. Overall dry conditions prevail, despite a
slight uptick in PWATs 1.1-1.35". With a weaker pgrad in place,
light SW winds develop, though they will "back" (ESE/SE) along the
coast in the afternoon with sea breeze formation. It will be a very
warm Spring day across ECFL, as afternoon highs soar into the L90s,
thus flirting with a few records over the interior (see Climate
section below). The aforementioned sea breeze will keep temperatures
a bit more modest near the coast, in the M-U80s. Despite the above
normal daytime temperatures, overnight mins remain just a few
degrees above normal in the M-U60s.

Previous Modified Extended Forecast Discussion.

Thu-Mon...The aforementioned ridge over the FL Straits will keep a
weak cold front over north Florida. As the front stalls into Thu
afternoon, rain chances increase (20-30%) generally north of
Orlando. A few lightning storms can`t be ruled out, though
instability is weak, with low CAPE and warmer (-8C) temperatures
aloft. The front will linger across north FL Fri, with quasi-zonal
flow in the mid/upper levels, though weak embedded shortwave
impulses will traverse the FL peninsula during this time. Mostly dry
conditions return, with just a few showers (PoPs ~20%) and perhaps
an isolated storm forecast for Fri afternoon across far northern
Lake and Volusia counties. Highs will remain well above normal to
near record in the U80s to L90s.

This weekend, the stalled boundary lifts northward into the
Southeast U.S., as a stronger trough moves through the eastern U.S.
At the surface, the earlier ridge moves seaward, away from the FL
peninsula. A stronger front associated with the trough is forecast
to move through central Florida this weekend and into early next
week. Shower and storm chances late Sat afternoon (20-40%) across
northern portions of the forecast area, increase in coverage (north
to south) Sat night, then 50-60% areawide on Sun. Will need to
monitor the threat for a few strong storms Sun, as temperatures cool
aloft. However, models suggest the support along the front may
outrun the associated precipitation. Regardless, scattered showers
and storms are forecast to linger into early next week across
southern portions of the area, as the front slows and stalls over
the FL Straits. A cool-down to closer to normal highs follows the
front, but not before temperatures soar into the L-M90s on Sat. Be
sure to stay hydrated for any weekend events.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Poor boating conditions over the offshore waters into early evening,
will gradually improve tonight, as high pressure builds over the
area. Seas 4-6 ft offshore will improve to 3-5 ft areawide
overnight. Some lingering 5 ft seas offshore continue to
diminish through mid-week. Seas generally 3-4 ft through the end
of the work- week, then 3-5 ft Sat/Sun, locally higher invof of
weekend convection. Onshore winds this afternoon veer offshore
through Fri, though they will become E/SE each afternoon at 10-15
kts along the coast as the sea breeze develops. Mostly dry, with
isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms over
the northern Volusia County waters Thu aftn, as a front drops into
north Florida.

A stronger cold front will approach the area this weekend,
increasing S/SW winds and coverage of showers and storms. While seas
are expected to build slightly, winds may increase toward Cautionary
criteria late Fri thru Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A small chance for patchy fog/stratus around sunrise at some
terminals (MCO/SFB) as well as the more fog-prone terminals
FPR/VRB. Probabilities for IFR conditions are up to 25% at SFB/MCO
but duration if any will be brief. Have maintained TEMPO MVFR VIS
from 10-13Z for the inland TAF sites.

Winds increase slightly out of the S/SW 6-8 knots after sunrise.
The sea breeze will develop at coastal terminals, first along the
treasure coast (SUA-VRB) and a little later at DAB. Winds behind
the sea breeze will be E to SE around 10 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast through the work-
week. High pressure develops over the local area through Wednesday,
with rain chances remaining below 15%. Easterly winds increase to 10-
15 mph behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Onshore flow will help
keep min RH in coastal areas above 50%. However, interior locations
are forecast to see min RH fall to 40-50%. Patchy fog, perhaps
locally dense across the I-4 corridor, will be possible especially
west of I-95 late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

As high pressure settles into the area Wednesday, winds become
lighter (5-10 mph) and generally southwesterly, with the exception
of the east coast sea breeze across coastal counties. However, drier
air and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide will lead to
min RH between 35-45% for all but the immediate coast. Generally
Good to Very Good dispersion through Wednesday becomes Very Good to
Excellent on Thursday as low-level westerly flow increases.

A weak frontal boundary across north Florida will promote an
isolated lightning storm potential across the I-4 corridor on
Thursday afternoon and perhaps again on Fri, otherwise generally dry
conditions through Friday for most. While min RH is forecast to
remain just above critical thresholds and winds remain below 15 mph
through the work-week, hot temperatures and drought conditions will
make for very sensitive fire weather conditions. A stronger boundary
will push into the area late Saturday into Sunday, with increasing
rain and storm chances including a decent chance of wetting rains
areawide. Above normal temperatures (upper 80s to lower 90s) are
expected Thursday thru Saturday. Potentially some mid 90s on
Saturday. Also Saturday, breezy/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of
the front will increase control concerns, as will any lightning
strikes from convection.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site   Apr 29     Apr 30     May 1      May 2
DAB    94 (1968)  92 (1953)  94 (2002)  95 (1953)
LEE    94 (2017)  95 (1991)  94 (2017)  95 (1990)
SFB    93 (2017)  93 (1971)  95 (2017)  94 (2010)
MCO    96 (1906)  95 (1971)  96 (1917)  97 (1906)
MLB    91 (1986)  93 (1964)  94 (2002)  95 (2002)
VRB    94 (1986)  91 (1975)  96 (1971)  94 (2002)
FPR    92 (1923)  97 (1971)  93 (2002)  95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  67  87  67 /  10   0  30  10
MCO  91  68  92  69 /  10   0  20   0
MLB  86  68  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  87  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  91  68  90  68 /  10   0  20  10
SFB  92  67  91  68 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  91  69  91  69 /  10   0  20   0
FPR  88  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion