Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

971
FXUS62 KMLB 051121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Becoming increasingly hot and dry through midweek, with highs
  in the low to mid 90s nearing daily record values both Wednesday
  and Thursday.

- Rain chances begin to rise Friday into the weekend as a front
  nears and stalls just north of the area, with highs remaining
  above normal.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions across the interior today
  through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure across the West Atlantic
remains just north of the area. This will maintain an onshore flow,
with winds out of the east today. Wind speeds will not be as
breezy/gusty, but will still increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon
as sea breeze pushes inland. Isolated to scattered showers will
still be possible over the southern coastal waters today, and low
level onshore flow may be able to transport a few of these showers
onshore along the Treasure Coast, with additional isolated shower
development possible across Okeechobee County as sea breeze
pushes inland through the afternoon. Model guidance shows
instability will be rather limited across this region (CAPE less
than 500 J/kg), so lightning storm development looks quite low with
this activity. Better potential for a storm or two will be across
the Treasure Coast waters where greater instability will reside.
Have rain chances around 20 percent across these southern
portions of east central FL, and kept mentionable PoPs out of the
forecast to the north.

Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday, with highs near
normal for this time of year, ranging from the low 80s at the coast
and mid to upper 80s inland. Dry conditions forecast into tonight,
with lows falling the into the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s
possible along the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Low level flow veers to the S/SW as ridge axis
shifts southward across the area, and mid level ridge over the Gulf
expands over the Florida peninsula. This will lead to hotter than
normal temperatures and dry conditions across the area. Highs will
climb to the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low to mid 90s
across the interior on Wednesday. As low level flow becomes more
offshore delaying or preventing east coast sea breeze development,
highs will reach the low to mid 90s area-wide on Thursday. Best
potential for tied or broken high temperature records will be across
interior sites on Wednesday, but most climate sites will have a
decent chance of setting daily records on Thursday. Overnight lows
will also remain above normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s for most
locations.

Friday-Monday...A weak front is forecast to move southward into
North Florida into early Friday morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF now
stall this boundary out near to just north of the area late week and
into the weekend. This will allow temperatures to remain above
normal across Central Florida, ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s
and even some mid 90s continuing to be possible across the interior.
Moisture will also gradually increase, with shower and storm chances
returning. PoPs currently are forecast to only reach around 20-30
percent near to north of Orlando into Friday afternoon, and then
rise to 30-50 percent into the weekend and early next week. Best
potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
during the afternoon/early evening hours each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Today-Tonight...Boating conditions improve today. Ridge axis remains
north of the area maintaining an onshore flow, but winds will not be
as breezy, with speeds around 9-12 knots. Winds will be out of the
east today and veer to the southeast into tonight. Seas also
diminish falling to 3-4 feet today and 2-3 feet tonight. Isolated to
scattered showers and a storm or two will continue to be possible,
mainly south of Sebastian Inlet today.

Wednesday-Saturday...Ridge axis shifts southward across the waters
through midweek, and eventually south of the area by late week as a
weak front moves into the Southeast United States. This front will
then move into North Florida and stall out near to just north of the
coastal waters Friday into Saturday. Boating conditions remain
generally favorable through the period, with wind speeds 10-15 knots
(or less at times). Winds will be out of the southeast on Wednesday
and south/southeast on Thursday. Then into Friday and Saturday winds
are forecast to be offshore in the morning before becoming onshore
into the afternoon as sea breeze develops. Wave heights will remain
around 2-3 feet. It will remain mostly dry through Thursday across
the waters, and then shower and storm chances rise as front nears
the area, especially into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

ISO SHRA are creeping north towards KSUA early this morning,
producing occasional MVFR reductions. Low chances (around 20%)
for SHRA continue at KVRB-KSUA through the day, otherwise dry VFR
conditions at ECFL terminals today and most of the night. ENE-
ESE winds increase to 7-13 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts
after 15Z. Winds diminish after 00Z, shifting more ESE-SE. Some
potential for fog development early Wednesday morning, but chances
are very low (10% or less) at the moment.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Winds will be out of the east today, but will be less breezy with
wind speeds around 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Isolated showers will
be possible along the Treasure Coast and into Okeechobee County
today (chance of rain 20%). Otherwise, it will be mostly dry today.
Winds shift to the east-southeast Wednesday, with speeds around 10
mph. No Min RH concerns are forecast along the coast due to the
onshore winds. However, sensitive fire weather conditions will exist
inland, especially near to northwest of the I-4 corridor where RH
values are forecast to drop to 35-40 percent during the afternoon
both today and Wednesday. Dispersion values will range from good to
very good both days.

Temperatures will continue to climb, becoming hotter than normal and
nearing daily record highs mid to late week, as max temps reach the
the low to mid 90s. Fire weather conditions becoming even more
sensitive into Thursday as hot and dry conditions are forecast to
lead to critically low RH values in the low to mid 30s for portions
of the interior, west of I-95, in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Wednesday, May 6th
and Thursday, May 7th:

Site           May 6        May 7
Daytona      95 (1955)    93 (1952)
Leesburg     93 (2007)    94 (1984)
Sanford      95 (1952)    94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1922)    98 (1915)
Melbourne    94 (2022)    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   95 (2022)    93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (2022)    95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  68  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  82  71  86  71 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  82  69  87  69 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  87  67  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  67  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  68  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  68  87  69 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion