Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

560
FXUS62 KMLB 110535
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Trending drier, but isolated to widely scattered showers
  possible through Saturday. Lightning storms and additional
  flooding are not expected.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions to last through the
  upcoming weekend, including life-threatening rip currents, even
  as surf appears to improve.

- Warm and dry next week as high pressure builds over East
  Central Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-tonight... High pressure centered across the eastern seaboard
and Deep South will slowly shift southward through the period. This
will bring drier air across the area, resulting in lower rain
chances for east central Florida. Forecast PWs ranging between 0.8-
1.1" this morning will decrease to 0.75-1.0" by this afternoon. This
will support a low (20 percent) chance of onshore moving showers
through the day, mainly from the I-4 corridor southward and along
the coast from Cape Canaveral southward. Forecast soundings shows
a significant dry layer in the mid levels, which will limit deep
convection. Thus, lightning storms are not forecast at this time.
Some showers today may produce heavier downpours, but due to the
quick motion to the southwest of these cells, the flooding
potential will be limited. As the high pressure moves southward,
the pressure gradient will slacken slightly overhead, with onshore
flow (northeast winds) remaining breezy with gusts to around 30
mph along the coast and 25 mph inland in the afternoon from sea
breeze enhancement. Warmer today, with temperatures forecast to be
seasonable to slightly below normal for this time of year.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s along the coast,
and upper 70s to low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure across the Gulf on
Saturday will slowly shift eastward over the Florida peninsula on
Sunday. Surface high pressure centered over the Deep south will
steadily shift eastward towards the eastern seaboard and the western
Atlantic as it gets reinforced by an additional surface high from
the northern US on Sunday and pushes offshore into the Atlantic. The
ridge axis will remain in place across the Florida peninsula as well
as the Deep South/western Atlantic through the period. This will
result in east to northeast flow continuing with breezy conditions
each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland.
Forecast PW values will be around 0.8-0.9" Saturday afternoon before
more dry air filters in on Sunday (PW values ranging from 0.6-0.7").
Much like today, there is enough moisture in the onshore flow to
support isolated onshore-moving showers on Saturday. Thus, have
added a low (20 percent) chance of showers along the coast from
north Cape Canaveral northward and across the interior along and
north of the I-4 corridor for most of the day. Have also added a 20%
across the southern Treasure Coast, mainly in the afternoon and
early evening hours. Rain chances remain 10% or less on Sunday as
the additional drier air moves in. The gradual warming trend
continues with afternoon highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s
each day. Overnight lows will be seasonable with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s. Despite the improved weather conditions, beach and
marine conditions will remain poor to hazardous through the weekend.
While the surf appears less rough and more inviting, there remains
life-threatening rip currents at all area beaches and entering the
water at the beaches is not advised.

Monday-Friday... Upper level high pressure will continue to build
over the Gulf and over the Florida peninsula through the period as a
trough across the western US/Great Plains region begins to slightly
deepen before flattening once again as it shifts eastward towards
the Midwest and then offshore the eastern US into mid week. Another
trough will develop and deepen over the western US into late week as
it shifts eastward. Surface high pressure offshore the New England
coast on Monday will gradually shift southward through the period
with the ridge axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. A surface
front associated with the second trough (late week) will shift
eastward towards the Florida peninsula into the weekend. However,
the trough and the front will likely remain north of the area due to
insufficient forcing. Will continue to monitor trends with that
system. The drier air, forecast PW values remaining less than 1.0",
coupled with light onshore flow and subsidence, will yield very low
(10% or less) rain chances through the period. However, ECFL could
see some low rain chances return on Friday if the winds shift
southeasterly and moisture increases across the area. But for now,
rain chances are 10% or less. The warming trend continues, with
afternoon highs ranging from upper 70s- mid 80s on Monday, to low
80s- upper 80s (possibly low 90s in the western interior) by Friday.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-Tonight... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist
across the central Florida Atlantic waters through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will slacken some over the local waters from what
it has been as the ridge axis slides southward towards Florida. This
will result in east to northeast winds locally becoming 10-20 KT
with higher gusts at times. Seas will also slowly subside through
the period, with seas 6-9 ft this afternoon diminishing to 5-7 ft
Saturday, and 4-7 ft early Sunday morning, then rebound to 5-8 ft
Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all
Central Florida Atlantic waters through 6 AM Saturday morning, and
continues for all Gulf Stream segments including nearshore Brevard
and the Treasure Coast through 8 AM Monday. Small craft should
continue to exercise caution in the Volusia nearshore waters after
the Advisory expires. Isolated to widely scattered onshore moving
showers will continue over the Atlantic waters through Saturday as
sufficient moisture remains over the area. No lightning storms are
forecast. Otherwise mostly dry on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday... High pressure shifts into the subtropical
Atlantic while the ridge axis remains pinned over the Florida
peninsula. This will allow the pressure gradient to further loosen,
resulting in easterly winds becoming mostly 5-15 KT with occasional
pushes towards 15-20 KT south of the Cape. Poor to hazardous boating
conditions will linger into Monday. Seas 5-7 ft in the offshore
waters and 4-6 ft in the nearshore waters on Monday will finally
subside to 3-5 ft Tuesday, and 2-4 ft on Wednesday. Mostly dry
conditions forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions forecast to largely continue through today and into
tonight. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, with a breezy onshore
flow again developing late morning into the afternoon, with E/NE
winds 12-15 knots, gusting to 20-22 knots. A few very light showers
and sprinkles near KSUA should diminish overnight, but another round
of isolated onshore moving showers will again be possible today,
mainly near to south of KMLB. Brief MVFR conditions may result
from any of this activity, but with rain chances no more than 20%
will only carry VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  62  78  63 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  80  62  81  63 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  77  66  78  67 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  78  64  78  65 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  82  60  83  61 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  80  60  82  62 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  81  61  82  63 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  78  63  79  64 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion