Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

475
FXUS62 KMLB 170755
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Another strong cold front will move across east central Florida
  on Sunday, with a return of below-normal temperatures forecast
  on Sunday and Monday.

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of east central
  Florida late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Cold
  Weather Advisories will likely be needed as well on Sunday and
  Monday nights.

- High pressure returns to the area behind the front and
  temperatures warm through mid-week, with the next best chance
  for rain on Thursday ahead of the next potential cold front.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the Florida peninsula
will shift eastward out across the Atlantic and weaken through
today as mid-level support weakens due to a deepening mid-level
trough across the central US. This trough is anticipated to
gradually move eastward towards the Appalachian region today into
tonight, with its associated cold front forecast to begin
approaching Florida late tonight. Locally, winds are anticipated
to remain light and variable, picking up slightly out of the east
this afternoon. While conditions will remain dry across the
peninsula today, there is a low chance for some light, isolated
showers across the local Atlantic waters. Rain chances will then
begin to increase slightly across northern portions of Lake and
Volusia counties late tonight as the front shifts closer to east
central Florida.

After a cold start to this morning with lows in the low to mid
30s and patchy frost in rural locations of northern Lake and
Volusia counties, temperatures are forecast to warm and reach
near-normal values once again this afternoon and tonight. Highs
are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s with lows falling
into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough swings across the Florida
peninsula on Sunday, with its associated cold front also moving
southward across the area. Rain chances increase on Sunday out
ahead of and along the front, with PoPs of 20-50% across east
central Florida. The Euro and GFS have come into better agreement
on rain chances, hence the slight uptick in rain chances compared
to this time yesterday. The NBM continues to favor high rain
chances, but some uncertainty remains so chose to not stick
strictly with the NBM output and capped it at 50%. Will continue
to monitor guidance and allow for increases in rain chances as
needed. Looking at the overall environment out ahead of the front,
local conditions continue to favor strictly shower development
and no storm development. Have limited thunder chances to below
mentionable chances as a result and the NBM has come into better
alignment with these thoughts. The front is anticipated to shift
south of east central Florida by Sunday night, with breezy
conditions returning to the area. This northwesterly flow will
help advect cold, dry air southward to east central Florida, with
high pressure slowly building across the area into Monday. Rain
chances return to near- zero on Monday, with winds gradually
weakening as the high establishes itself across the southeastern
US.

Cold weather concerns reenter the forecast into Sunday night
behind the front as the aforementioned cold, dry air sinks
southward towards east central Florida and causes below-normal
temperatures. There is increasing confidence in the potential for
freezing temperatures once again across portions of east central
Florida and a Freeze Watch has been issued Sunday night into
Monday morning for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola
counties. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning are forecast to
fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s across the interior west of
I-95 and portions of the Volusia and Brevard coasts. The immediate
Treasure Coast area is forecast to fall into the 40s. Another
concern that will need to be monitored is wind chills as winds
remain breezy behind the front into Sunday night. A Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be needed for a majority of east central
Florida as wind chill values fall below 30 degrees. Below-normal
temperatures are forecast to persist into Monday night, though
lows will warm a few degrees into the low 30s to low 40s across
the interior and into the 40s along the coast. Winds will not be
quite as breezy Monday night, but some spots (especially rural
portions of east central Florida) could near Cold Weather Advisory
criteria once again. Patchy frost will also be a concern each
night, particularly in rural locations.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure across the southeastern US will
slowly shift eastward through the middle of next week, helping to
keep conditions mostly dry across east central Florida through at
least Wednesday. This will be further ensured as a reinforcing
cold front moves southward across the area early Tuesday. Rain
chances are then forecast to return to the area on Thursday as the
surface high lifts northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic and
pushes offshore as another cold front develops and moves towards
the southeastern US. The front will likely move across the area
Friday, but there remains some timing discrepancies between long
range solutions. There is the potential for one more night of
cooler temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday, but overall,
temperatures through the extended period are forecast to follow a
gradual warming trend, with temperatures returning to near and
even above normal values.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

High pressure situated across the local Atlantic waters will help
maintain generally favorable boating conditions today into
tonight. Conditions then deteriorate once more on Sunday as a cold
front moves southward across the waters, with rain chances
forecast to increase to 50% out ahead of the front. Northwest
winds are forecast to increase 15 to 25 knots Sunday afternoon and
night behind the front, resulting in seas building to 6 to 8 feet
across the Gulf Stream waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely
be needed Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High pressure then
builds across the area Monday, drifting northeastward through mid-
week. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to
return, though periods of poor conditions will be possible across
the offshore waters as a reinforcing front that moves through on
Tuesday leads to some increasing winds and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1212 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR with L/V winds into Sat morning. Increasing marine stratocu
across Treasure Coast terminals northward above FL040. Weak
pressure gradient continues with winds transitioning onshore along
the coast in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central
Florida on Sunday and a dry, cold air mass will settle across the
area behind it. This drier air mass is anticipated to result in
sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values are forecast
to fall below 35% on Monday across portions of the interior on
Monday afternoon and west of the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. Winds
are not anticipated to reach critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  51  61  34 /   0  10  50   0
MCO  72  54  66  36 /   0  10  40   0
MLB  72  54  71  39 /   0  10  30   0
VRB  74  54  74  40 /  10  10  20   0
LEE  72  50  58  33 /   0  20  50   0
SFB  73  52  63  35 /   0  10  50   0
ORL  72  54  63  37 /   0  10  50   0
FPR  74  54  75  40 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion