Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

758
FXUS62 KMLB 141136
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
736 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

- Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming
  trend; Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and
  into the weekend over the interior.

- Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into
  early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft remains extended across the area as
surface ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic persists
north of central FL. This will continue a warm and mostly dry
pattern across the region today, with highs near to slightly above
normal, ranging from near 80 degrees at the coast and low to mid 80s
across the interior. Despite an overall dry airmass (PW values
around 0.7-0.8"), there is enough moisture in the lower levels for
the easterly flow to generate a few onshore moving sprinkles, mainly
along the Treasure Coast through this morning and into the
afternoon. Radar imagery has already shown some very light showers
move onshore Martin County. However, not expecting much in the way
of measurable rainfall with this activity, so rain chances remain
low (10% or less). Models show airmass drying out even further in
tonight which should end any of these light showers and sprinkles.
Easterly winds increase up to 10-15 mph today, with gusts to around
20 mph. Onshore winds then diminish into tonight with temps falling
into the mid 50s to low 60s across the interior, and in the low to
mid 60s at the coast. HREF guidance shows a better potential for
patchy fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning across to
northwest of the I-4 corridor.

A High Risk for life-threatening rip currents persists at area
beaches today due to a lingering swell. Entering the surf is not
advised.

Wednesday-Sunday...Ridge axis remains north of the area through
Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across
the area late week into the weekend, which will weaken the onshore
flow. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the area, continuing a
warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore
winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max
temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer
to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast Wednesday and
Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s.
As temperatures continue to climb into late week and into the
weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from
the low to mid 80s at the coast and then climbing into the low 90s
across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing
record values, but greatest potential for any tied or broken daily
records still look to be at Leesburg Friday through Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the
area Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a
cooling trend into early next week and also bring a return of rain
chances. However, for now PoPs remain on the lower end (around 20-
30%), as there remains some differences in overall moisture return
and shower coverage between the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS still
slightly wetter than the ECMWF. Both models show a period of breezy
to windy northeast to east winds developing behind the front that
will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high
pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through
midweek and then settles southward across central Florida late this
week and into the weekend. E/SE winds will generally continue over
the next several days in the prevailing flow as ridge axis remains
to the north, and then into the afternoon/evening hours Friday
through Sunday with the developing east coast sea breeze as ridge
settles across the area. Wind speeds will range from 5-15 knots,
with seas 3-5 feet today and Wednesday falling to 2-4 feet into late
week, and then 2-3 feet into the weekend. A few light showers and
sprinkles may develop from time to time in the onshore flow, but
overall dry conditions are forecast for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals today. ISO onshore
moving -SHRA possible through the day, but chances (10% or less)
and coverage not high enough for even VCSH mention. Otherwise dry
conditions continue. ESE winds pick up to 8-13 kts with
occasionally stronger gusts in the late morning, highest along
the Space/Treasure Coasts in the afternoon behind the sea breeze.
Winds then settle to 5-10 kts after around 00Z, and become light
later in the night. Conditions become slightly more favorable for
fog development late tonight into early Wednesday morning. HREF
has a typical 10-30% chance for IFR VIS reductions driven by a
handful of members, from KMCO- KTIX northward, while NBM/LAMP
chances are 5% or less at all ECFL terminals. Given the low
chances from the latter keeping TAFs VFR for this package, and
will monitor trends.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Prevailing onshore winds will generally continue through Thursday as
ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north
of the area. Easterly winds will increase up to 10-15 mph each
afternoon through midweek, with strongest winds generally at the
coast. Gusts to around 20 mph will also be possible today. Dry
conditions are forecast to prevail through late week, with a gradual
warming trend continuing over the next several days. Onshore flow
will keep Min RH values above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid
50s at the coast. However, well inland, across areas near to
northwest of I-4, Min RH values as low as 35-40 percent are forecast
this afternoon, with more critical values in the low to mid 30s
across this far inland portion of east central Florida Wednesday and
Thursday. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph
across this area where lower RH values occur. Dispersion values will
be Good to Very Good both today and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record Highs for April 17-19:

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  60  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  84  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  65  79  65 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  80  63  80  63 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  86  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  61  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  62  80  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion