Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

498
FXUS62 KMLB 091836
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible through
  Wednesday, especially across the interior

- Low rain chances into mid-week, before a cold front brings
  scattered showers and storms late week

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible each morning through at
  least Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis will continue
to extend towards the Florida peninsula as the high itself weakens
in response to a deepening low pressure system moving from the
Central US towards the northeast. Aloft, ridging over the Gulf
amplifies and shifts eastward in response to a weakening mid-upper
level low moving across the southern US and Mexico. Locally the
pressure gradient becomes very weak today and Tuesday, resulting
in light background flow, allowing the sea breezes to push inland
relatively unimpeded and collide very near the center of the
peninsula later in the evening. For ECFL, light variable winds
shift onshore 5-10 mph (a bit weaker than previous days without
the added background flow), up to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph
along the coast behind the sea breeze. Southerly flow returns
Wednesday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between the
Atlantic high and the approaching low to the northwest, which
could bring gusty to breezy conditions behind the sea breeze back
inland in the afternoon. While onshore flow behind the sea breeze
will keep temperatures along the coastal corridor more moderate
(though still well above normal) in the L-M80s, the interior will
bake into the U80s to near 90, 10-13 degrees above normal and
flirting with records at a few locations. See climate section for
more details.

Gradual drying in the mid-levels have knocked rain chances down
to 20% or less, highest across the southern counties this
afternoon/evening, then shifting the northern counties Tuesday
afternoon/evening (though even 20% may prove to be very generous
tomorrow). Although heights are decreasing as the upper level
ridge approaches, T500 remains a cool M10-M12C, and the dry air
aloft could also enhance downdrafts. Therefore, any lightning
storms that manage to form could become strong producing small
hail, gusty winds to around 45 mph, locally heavy downpours, and
cloud to ground lightning. Otherwise mostly dry conditions,
especially Wednesday.

Conditions tonight into Tuesday morning will once again be
marginally favorable for development of patchy to areas of dense
fog. While model agreement where/if dense fog will develop is not
spectacular, there is a notable increase in chances across the
southern coastal counties compared to previous nights. Commuters
should use caution on the roads and be prepared for rapid changes
in visibility. Overnight lows in the 60s.

Thursday-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...High pressure
over the Atlantic nudges farther eastward, as a low pressure
system moving over northern New England drags a cold front
through the Southeast. The surface cold front is still forecast to
reach north Florida by Thursday evening, then pass southward
through the peninsula into early Friday morning. Increased
moisture and instability along the front will allow for scattered
showers and storms to overspread the local area Thursday, with
PoPs 50-70%. A series of upper level shortwaves will maintain a
chance of showers into the weekend, despite increasing surface
ridging. Brief northerly winds behind the front will once again
veer onshore through the period. PoPs 20-40% Friday and Saturday
become 40-60% Sunday and Monday, as southerly flow advects
additional moisture into the area. Highs in the mid to upper 80s
Thursday moderate into the lower to mid-80s for the weekend behind
the front. A brief dip into the upper 50s for the normally cooler
locations Friday night. Otherwise, lows remain in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today-Wednesday...Generally favorable boating conditions. High
pressure extending from the subtropical Atlantic to the Florida
peninsula gradually weakens in response to a low pressure system
developing over the CONUS. Southerly winds 5-15 kts shift from
more southeasterly in the afternoon and evening to more
southwesterly in the early morning with the sea breeze
circulation. Seas 2-4 ft.

Thursday-Friday...Boating conditions deteriorate as a cold front
pushes through Florida and the local Atlantic waters late Thursday
into Friday. Chances for showers and lightning storms increase
Thursday ahead of the front, then winds freshen Thursday night
into Friday behind the front. Confidence in just how poor boating
conditions become remains low as models continue to disagree on
timing and wind speeds. However, northerly winds at least 15-20
kts appear likely north of the Cape Thursday night, and could push
towards 25 kts well north near and offshore of Daytona Beach.
Based on this forecast, seas build up to 8 ft in the Gulf Stream,
and 4-6 ft closer to shore Friday. Conditions look to improve
going into the weekend, but will keep chances for scattered storms
and a few showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Though confidence is low, a narrow ribbon of greater moisture over
the southern half of Florida is enough to keep VCSH/VCTS for MLB,
VRB, FPR, and SUA this afternoon. Other concern is for patchy
fog/stratus yet again tonight as winds become nearly calm over
the terminals. Additional refinements will be required, but for
now, added mention of BR/BCFG in MVFR/low VFR range at a few
sites between 10-14Z. As of now, the probabilities for IFR are
from 20-40% late tonight. Winds continue E/SE up to 15 KT, highest
along the coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 9        Mar 10       Mar 11       Monthly March
DAB    87 2024      86 2023      89 1967      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    88 2024      87 1974      88 2015      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    89 2024      90 1974      88 1974      94 3/20/2003
MCO    90 2024      90 1918      91 1918      97 3/30/1907
MLB    89 2022      90 1964      89 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    90 2024      89 2022      88 1986      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    90 2022      90 2022      90 1997      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  67  88  67  89 /  10  20   0   0
MLB  66  83  67  83 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  65  84  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  65  89  67  88 /   0  20   0   0
SFB  66  89  66  88 /  10  20   0   0
ORL  68  89  67  89 /  10  20   0   0
FPR  64  84  64  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion