Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

468
FXUS62 KMLB 191901
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible along the
  Treasure Coast this afternoon/evening

- Cold front arrives tonight, bringing gusty northeast winds into
  Monday and gradually cooler air; short-lived rain chances
  increase Monday, mainly south of Cape Canaveral

- Beach and boating conditions to deteriorate quickly tonight and
  remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Rest of Today...A few showers have managed to develop south of
Kissimmee/Melbourne early this afternoon, despite scattered to
broken cirrus streaming overhead. So far, no lightning has managed
to develop as of around 2:30 PM, capped by the stout dry air
above 800mb in the TBW 12Z sounding this morning. However, will
need to continue to watch for the threat for a few lightning
strikes, as ongoing cells encounter lift along the sea breeze and
lake breeze boundaries. While dry air aloft is a limiting factor
for storms today, it also provides a conditional strong storm
threat. Mesoanalysis indicates DCAPE values near 1100 J/kg over
Okeechobee County and the western portions of the Treasure Coast
counties. Should a shower or storm be able to overcome the dry
air, strong wind gusts 50-55 mph cannot be ruled out. PoPs through
the afternoon 20-30% south of Melbourne.

Tonight-Monday...CAMs indicate convection will reach the Treasure
Coast into the evening hours, drifting offshore along westerly
steering flow tonight. A cold front then moves through east
central Florida tonight into Monday. Moisture builds along the
coast and across the southern third of the area through the
period. This will support at least a low chance for coastal
showers overnight into Monday morning. An increase in scattered
showers and even a storm is possible Monday afternoon along the
Treasure Coast. NBM ProbThunder values remain 30% or less, though
instability overall is forecast to be low. PoPs 30-50% for the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County will diminish from north to
south into the afternoon.

Breezy to windy conditions are forecast to develop by early Monday
morning. Northeasterly winds then look to continue to increase
into the afternoon, with speeds 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. A
few gusts to 30 mph will be possible, especially along the coast.
Onshore flow will keep temperatures nearer to normal, in the upper
70s to lower 80s, but also lead to hazardous beach and boating
conditions.

Tuesday-Saturday...Much drier air filters into the local area
Tuesday, as PWATs fall to as low as 0.5-0.6". High pressure builds
over the Atlantic just off of the Southeast US coast mid to late
week, with modest moisture return (PWATs peaking at 1.1-1.2")
keeping rain chances out of the forecast through the work week.
Low (20%) chances for showers return for the weekend, though most
areas will remain dry Tuesday through Sunday. Breezy ENE flow
lingers on Tuesday, especially along the coast, with winds 10-15
mph and gusts near 20 mph. The building ridge will then lead to a
return of more typical 10 mph or less breezes in the afternoons
from the E/ESE.

Near normal high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s continue
Tuesday and Wednesday, due to breezy winds and increased cloud
cover, respectively. Later in the period, above normal high
temperatures return, with mid to upper 80s forecast once again by
the weekend. While onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the
60s, drier air will allow interior locations to dip into the mid
to upper 50s through Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through this afternoon,
with the exception of a few to scattered offshore-moving showers
and storms along the Treasure Coast. Then, winds will begin to
deteriorate this evening, ahead of a cold front passage tonight.
Northeasterly winds increase to 20-25 kts from north to south
through the overnight and early morning hours. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect and expand with the wind. Gusts near
30 kts are forecast. Seas respond, building from 2-3 ft this
afternoon to 7-10 ft into Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible along the front, before drier conditions
return into Monday evening.

High pressure builds into the western Atlantic waters this week.
Hazardous conditions linger through Tuesday, as winds and seas
slowly subside. By mid-week, E/ESE flow 10-15 kts returns, as wave
heights fall to 2-4 ft. Dry conditions are then forecast into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon remaining predominantly
VFR. Light and variable winds this morning are beginning to
become established out of the west at most terminals. However, the
east coast sea breeze has developed along portions of the Brevard
and Treasure Coast, locally shifting winds out of the east at
these terminals. A few light showers will be possible along the
Treasure Coast this afternoon with VCSH mentioned at VRB/FPR/SUA.

The local pattern changes tonight into Monday as a cold front
passes central Florida. Northeast winds will spread the area from
north to south overnight into early Monday, increasing to 15-20
kts. Gusts become locally higher around 25-30 kts. A lowering
cloud deck is forecast to build in vicinity of the front early
Monday, and have added mention of MVFR CIGs at some coastal TAF
sites. Will likely need to expand MVFR mention across other
portions of east central Florida as confidence increases with
future TAF updates.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions through early this week, as a cold
front moves through the area. Westerly winds around 10 mph or less
veer onshore at this coast this afternoon as the sea breeze
develops, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Min RH 35-
40% is forecast for areas west of I-95, excluding the Treasure Coast
counties. Mostly dry this afternoon, with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible into this evening generally south of
Melbourne. A strong storm cannot be ruled out. Very good to
excellent dispersion over the interior could lead to control issues.

A cold front will move through the area tonight into Monday morning.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible
tonight into Monday afternoon across southern portions of the
forecast area. Lightning chances around 20-30%. Despite a brief
increase in moisture for most areas, breezy to windy northeasterly
winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph behind the front will maintain
sensitive fire weather conditions.

Near Red Flag conditions Tuesday. Winds veer easterly and slacken
to 10-15 mph, but remain breezy with gusts 20-25 mph and
sensitive to near critical RH. Very good to excellent dispersion
will continue to cause control concerns. Dry air will continue to
cause sensitive fire weather conditions through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  77  60  79 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  68  79  60  81 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  69  78  65  79 /  30  30   0   0
VRB  68  78  64  78 /  30  40   0   0
LEE  65  81  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  65  80  58  82 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  68  80  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  68  78  63  78 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion