Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

664
FXUS62 KMLB 191047
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
647 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL
  central Florida Atlantic beaches today and may continue through
  much of this week. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly
  discouraged!

- Increasingly humid conditions into this weekend will gradually
  expand the Moderate HeatRisk across east central Florida.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms move inland with the
  sea breeze during the afternoons, though most will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Current-Tonight...Isolated showers continue to drift onshore prior
to sunrise this morning embedded within east to southeasterly
flow. This activity is forecast to continue through the early
morning hours, before convection becomes greater focused on the
interior and western half of the peninsula later in the day (PoPs
around 20% or less this morning).

High pressure remains offshore from the Mid-Atlantic seaboard
today, with east to southeasterly flow enhancing to around 15 mph
and gusts to 20-25 mph behind the sea breeze. PWATs near 1.5" and
a mid to upper level low in the vicinity of the Bahamas will lead
to continued isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon over the far interior (PoPs 20-30%), but the highest
chances remain west of Leesburg. Although a vast majority of the
forecast area is expected to remain dry, CAMs notoriously struggle
to resolve isolated onshore- moving convection, so a few showers
cannot be ruled out along the coast this afternoon. Lingering
drier air in the mid-levels (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and cooler 500
mb temperatures (near -10 C) could lead to a few strong storms,
with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail.

Regardless, additional showers and storms are once again forecast
for the local Atlantic water overnight during the convective
maximum, a few of which will likely drift onshore into coastal
areas through early morning. High temperatures remain in the
upper 80s to near 90 today, with little relief overnight as lows
linger in the 70s for most areas and near 80 along the coast. If
trying to beat the heat at the beaches, be aware there is a High
Risk for rip currents. Entering the water is strongly discouraged.

Wednesday-Tuesday...The ridge remains over the western Atlantic
through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the
Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the mid to upper level low
drifts towards the east coast of Florida through late week, before
it weakens and riding develops for the long weekend. Into early
next week, models suggest the surface high finally begins to drift
southward, though this has very little, if any, effect on the
local pattern.

Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula`s
weather pattern over the next seven days. Ridging to the northeast
maintains east to southeast flow, which increases to around 15
mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze.
Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will
remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours,
occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral.
Then, convection focuses on the interior or western half of the
peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along
the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. PoPs
each day through the work week are generally 20-30%, though most
will likely remain dry. Moisture increases from the Atlantic into
the weekend, increasing PoPs slightly to 40-50%. Lingering drier
air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in
any more developed storms through Friday, though increasing
moisture and warming 500mb temperatures look to reduce that threat
into the weekend.

Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining
in the 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As
moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which
creep into the upper 90s to near 100. Humid conditions and little
relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate
HeatRisk. Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this
weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks from the heat. A
High to high-end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue
through the period, thanks to onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to
southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15
kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea
breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and storms will
remain possible each day, particularly during the overnight and
early morning hours, drifting onshore into coastal areas. A few
stronger cells could produce wind gusts near 30 kts. Seas up to 5
ft offshore this morning diminish, with prevailing 2-4 ft seas
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Mostly VFR. Isolated onshore moving showers continue this morning
with VCSH mentioned at all coastal terminals and SFB. Cannot rule
out occasional lightning strikes, but coverage remains too low
for mention of TS in the TAF at this time. Coastal shower
activity is forecast to generally diminish into the early
afternoon once the sea breeze passes. East winds increase 12-15
kts this afternoon with locally higher gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east-
southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained
winds increase to 10-20 mph behind the sea breeze each afternoon,
with gusts around 25 mph, especially along the coast. The greatest
chance for rain and storms will be generally south of the Cape in
the mornings, transitioning inland with the sea breeze into the
afternoon and evenings. However, any convection will be isolated to
scattered in nature, so many locations will remain dry. Briefly
higher wind gusts embedded in showers or lightning storms will be
possible.

Ongoing drought and breezy winds will prolong fire sensitive
conditions and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire
starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  87  73 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  89  72  89  72 /  20   0  30  10
MLB  86  77  86  76 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  86  76  87  75 /  10  20  20  10
LEE  90  72  90  72 /  20   0  30  10
SFB  90  72  90  72 /  20   0  20  10
ORL  89  72  89  72 /  20   0  30  10
FPR  86  75  86  74 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion