Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

681
FXUS62 KMLB 200925
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
425 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Unseasonably warm today and Saturday with near record highs in
  the mid to upper 80s.

- A HIGH risk of life threatening rip currents continues today.
  Always swim near a life-guarded beach and never enter the water
  alone.

- A strong cold front will bring medium (40-50pct) rain chances
  Sunday followed by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical
  fire weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon for
  northern sections and will develop areawide Monday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with
  frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon
  night/Tue morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today-Sat...High pressure ridge axis will remain across south FL
and produce a SW wind flow. Some morning stratus and patchy fog
will dissipate and reveal mostly sunny skies both days with only
some fair weather cumulus and passing cirrus. The offshore (SW)
flow will not be strong enough to prevent the east coast sea
breeze from forming but it will be delayed. This will allow even
coastal sections to warm into the mid 80s both days with upper 80s
over the interior. There is a good chance for fresh record highs
to be set today esp at Daytona and Sanford (see below). A
persistent long period NE swell will continue to impact the surf
zone and create another High risk of rip currents at the beaches
today. Will reassess if a High risk will be needed Sat as both the
swell height and period should continue to gradually
decrease/shorten.

Sun-Thu...Winter makes a comeback. A strong cold front will sweep
across EC FL Sunday and bring scattered showers. Prospect for
lightning is low due to limited instability. Rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than 0.25". Gusty northwest winds will usher
in sharply colder and much drier air Sunday afternoon from north
to south behind the front. Temperatures will fall quickly Sun eve
reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s Mon morning. A persistent NW
breeze of 10-15 mph will produce lowest wind chills in the low to
mid 30s. Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be about 15
degrees below normal, only reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon combined with very low
RH will produce critical fire weather conditions.

The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory
is likely to be needed for most of the area with lows in the 30s
and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a
northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Our threshold for this type
of advisory is 30F or below. Freezing temperatures near 32F will
be possible over rural portions of the interior both north and
south of Orlando on Monday night and Tue night but most areas will
not see a freeze.

High pressure will settle over the area Tue night and produce very
light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will produce excellent
radiational cooling and potential for frost where temperatures
fall into the mid 30s.

High pressure will push east of the area Wed and return southerly
flow will allow temps to warm back up qickly with max temps in the
low to mid 70s Wed and upper 70s/near 80 Thu. Dry conditions
persist with the next meager chance for rain arriving around
Friday associated with the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

High pressure ridge axis will remain across south Florida through
Saturday which will produce a S to SW wind flow, turning onshore
(SE) in a sea breeze near the coast this afternoon and Sat
afternoon. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with
gusts around 20 mph. Seas 2-4 FT today and 2-3 FT Sat.

A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered
to numerous showers and possibly a few storms mainly over the
Gulf Stream. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the
front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc
waters. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop with
seas building to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream early Mon. Gusts to Gale
force are possible Sun night into Mon esp offshore. Conditions
will remain hazardous for boating through early next week. Winds
will decrease 12-15 knots on Tue but the north wind component will
keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5 FT
nearshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Once again 00Z guidance has backed way off on fog/stratus chances
for early this morning, now calling for TEMPO impacts, if any,
10Z-13Z at the northern terminals including KMCO. There is still
some uncertainty how significant the impacts will be, with
NBM/LAV generally remaining VFR-MVFR, but HREF indicating
reductions to IFR-LIFR (10-30% chance) remain possible. Given the
the new guidance but overall uncertainty, backed off impacts in
the TAFs a bit, brining most to prevailing VFR, but kept MVFR-IFR
TEMPOs. Whatever fog/stratus manages to develop expected to clear
by around 13Z, with VFR conditions prevailing until we do this all
over again late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Light southerly/VRB overnight winds become SW 5-10 kts at 15Z.
The east coast sea breeze develops after 18Z, shifting winds S-SE
and increasing to 10-15 kts with gust 20-25 kts at KTIX-KSUA. At
KDAB the sea breeze is likely to be pinned near to offshore the
coast most of the afternoon, only making a weak push inland late
in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Warm and dry conditions are forecast through Saturday. Deep mixing
will transport lower dewpoints to the surface allowing min RH values
to fall near 35% this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon
especially over the interior. Southwest winds will remain below 15
mph. A southeast sea breeze will develop along the coast both
afternoons which will be occasionally gusty but also boost the RH
values. Dispersion values will be Very Good to Excellent both days,
except generally Good across Martin county.

A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday and bring a chance
for showers during the day but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is
forecast. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph
gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. RH
values will fall during the afternoon with potential for critical RH
spreading south to Orlando before sunset. Red flag conditions are
likely Monday with min RHs 20-30% areawide and NW winds near 15 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Record Highs for today and Saturday:


            RECORD          RECORD   NORMAL
     DATE   HIGH     DATE   HIGH     HI
DAB  20-Feb 85 1988  21-Feb 87 1989  72
LEE  20-Feb 86 2018  21-Feb 87 2018  74
SFB  20-Feb 86 2019  21-Feb 87 2003  75
MCO  20-Feb 89 1988  21-Feb 88 1989  76
MLB  20-Feb 86 1988  21-Feb 88 1989  75
VRB  20-Feb 88 2023  21-Feb 87 2014  76
FPR  20-Feb 88 1932  21-Feb 89 1989  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  60  86  61 /   0   0   0  20
MCO  88  63  87  63 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  85  60  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  85  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  86  61  86  62 /   0   0   0  30
SFB  88  62  88  63 /   0   0   0  20
ORL  87  63  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  86  59  86  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion