Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

624
FXUS62 KMLB 141130
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
630 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Isolated showers today, increased rain chances tonight into
  Thursday morning as a strong cold front pushes through

- Below normal temperatures from Thursday onward with sub-
  freezing temperatures and wind chills Friday morning; a Freeze
  Watch has been issued for much of the area

- Brief warmup on Saturday is followed by another cold front
  Sunday into Monday, producing cold mornings and cool afternoon
  temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Today-Tonight...Temperatures this morning are starting out a bit
milder than yesterday, ranging form the mid 50s north to the
upper 60s and lows 70s along the Treasure Coast. Clouds continue
to form as the low/mid levels find some added moisture, advecting
northward from south Florida. A stationary front is beginning to
lift north from the Florida Straits, and later this morning it is
forecast to stretch from near Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee.
Developing low pressure off the northeast Florida coast will help
to shift this front seaward by the afternoon, taking rain chances
with it.

Through the morning hours, isolated to scattered showers
are possible, especially closer to the coast (20-35% chance).
Locations that do catch a quick sprinkle or shower will likely
only see a couple hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, expect a good
amount of dry time. Westerly winds increase, occasionally gusting
15-20 mph. There will be some breaks in the clouds here and
there, especially south late this afternoon, but sunshine will be
obscured by the clouds for many through the day. High temps align
closely with the NBM 50th percentile, or just a touch warmer,
reaching the upper 60s north of I-4 to the low/mid 70s farther
south.

From midnight onward, a fast-approaching cold front and
sufficient moisture ahead of it will support scattered shower
development. Instability parameters are minimal to none, so
lightning storms are not anticipated. The QPF ranges from 0.10" to
0.25" areawide, which is in better agreement with ensembles this
morning. Given that some CAMs are a bit more aggressive, isolated
amounts to 0.5" cannot be ruled out. These amounts aren`t likely
to help the D0-D1 drought conditions much, but it is something.
Rain looks to linger through daybreak, at least for central and
southern portions of the area. Colder air starts to spill south
early Thursday morning, helping morning lows settle in the 50s for
the majority of ECFL (upper 40s in northern Lake/Volusia).

Thursday-Friday...Lingering showers push south and east rather
quickly Thursday morning, making for a drier afternoon. Breezy to
gusty northwest winds (gusting 20-30 mph) behind the front will
usher in much colder and drier air. Early day clouds are forecast
to clear out by mid to late afternoon with model soundings
showing PW less than 0.2" at that point. Afternoon highs will
struggle to reach the 60-degree mark north of I-4, while the rest
of ECFL hovers in the low to mid 60s (closer to 70 degrees in
Martin County). Temperatures slide quickly through the 50s and 40s
after sunset, and some interior locations may already be in the
upper 30s around midnight.

Overnight lows are forecast to plummet into the upper 20s over
northern Lake and Volusia counties, in addition to rural locations
west of I-95. Near to below freezing temps are forecast for a
large portion of the area, so a Freeze Watch has been issued
(excluding Coastal Brevard/Indian River/St. Lucie or Martin
counties). When you factor in a 5-10 mph northwest breeze, wind
chill values will likely reach the 20s to low 30s across all of
ECFL Friday morning. Many locations will experience sub-30 degree
wind chills for at least 2-4 hours. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory
will be needed in future forecast updates. Bring pets inside
Thursday evening, protect sensitive plants, and bundle up as you
head out the door Friday morning.

Despite plenty of sunshine, Friday afternoon will remain on the
cold side with highs staying in the 50s from Osceola/northern
Brevard northward (low 60s south). Winds lighten quickly as high
pressure builds over the FL Peninsula. While we largely lose the
wind chill factor Friday night, temperatures are still forecast to
settle into the 30s and 40s, with a few spots approaching the
32-degree mark in northern Lake and Volusia counties early
Saturday morning.

Saturday-Tuesday...Frost development cannot be ruled out Saturday
morning, though models this cycle have backed off on overall
coverage. This is something we will keep an eye on over the next
couple of days. Broad mid level troughing, centered over the Upper
Midwest Saturday morning, will begin to deepen and rotate
eastward on Sunday. On Saturday, temperatures recover into the 60s
and low 70s, if only for one day. Another cold front is forecast
to approach on Sunday and move through the area by Sunday night.
For now, moisture is lacking in most model sets, so we maintain a
dry FROPA. Prepare for another cooldown to start next week with lows
Monday morning approaching the freezing mark in a number of
locations (rural interior and north of I-4), along with wind
chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds overhead
by Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing temps to climb back into the
60s and low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions exist this morning until
westerly winds pick up in the afternoon. Small craft should
exercise caution in the offshore waters later today for winds
around 15-20 kt. Seas will remain 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered
showers are forecast, generally increasing in coverage by tonight
as a strong cold front approaches from the north. An isolated
lightning storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream. As this
front pushes south on Thursday morning, hazardous boating
conditions develop quickly. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory has been
issued, beginning for the offshore waters before sunrise and
expanding to the nearshore waters by mid morning Thursday.
Northwest winds 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt (occasionally
near gale force well offshore) are forecast to build seas up to
6-10 ft Thursday night.

High pressure builds overhead Friday, allowing winds to more
quickly subside as seas take a bit longer to fall (mainly in the
Gulf Stream). Favorable conditions are maintained through Saturday
before another front approaches on Sunday, building winds and
seas (to 7 ft offshore). Guidance was bit more aggressive and
based on the winds, stayed on the conservative side of the wave
forecast for the time being Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 603 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Some lingering MVFR CIGs across ECFL this morning which will
continue through the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast through today. Light and variable winds will become
westerly and increase to 5-10 KT by 15Z, increasing to around 15
KT in the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 KT especially along the
coast. Crosswind issues may be encountered at MCO today. Isolated
to scattered showers are forecast through the day before a brief
respite into this evening. Rain chances then return overnight as
a strong cold front pushes through into Thursday morning. Have
included VCSH starting 17Z across the interior, and starting
09/11Z along the coast, with rain chances lasting through 23Z
everywhere. No TEMPOs at this time. Then have VCSH starting back
up around 06/08Z. Winds will then become light once again after
23Z before becoming NW and increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts up to
20 KT around 15Z Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions return late
Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold front. Breezy to gusty
conditions Thursday afternoon subside by Friday, though humidity
values fall to near critical levels Friday afternoon across
interior east-central Florida. Dry conditions are forecast through
the weekend and into early next week, as another cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  49  59  30 /  40  60  20   0
MCO  69  54  60  33 /  30  60  30   0
MLB  73  53  65  33 /  40  60  40   0
VRB  75  53  67  34 /  40  50  50   0
LEE  67  50  58  30 /  30  60  20   0
SFB  69  51  60  31 /  30  60  20   0
ORL  69  53  60  34 /  30  60  30   0
FPR  76  53  67  33 /  40  50  50   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion