Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

585
FXUS62 KMLB 270534
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
134 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast along a sea breeze
  collision late this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms will
  be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and
  small hail.

- Favorable boating conditions today, becoming poor to hazardous
  over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warmer today, slightly cooler along the coast Monday, then
  hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough across the eastern US will
steadily push eastward and off the coast into the Atlantic through
the day. Much like yesterday, several rounds of shortwave energy
will travel across the Florida peninsula through the period. Surface
high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to weaken as its
axis loosely remains over the Florida peninsula. Locally, winds will
turn southwest to westerly with the sea breeze pattern continuing.
However, due to the dominate offshore flow, the west coast sea
breeze will dominate, with the east coast sea breeze remaining
pinned near I-95 in the afternoon. Although some models are showing
a little farther penetration of the sea breeze.

Forecast PW values will be around 1.2-1.3" this afternoon, which
will support afternoon showers and storms. There is a medium (30-50
percent) chance of rain in the afternoon across ECFL. The greatest
potential for storms will be across the interior and especially
across the Treasure Coast counties and in vicinity of Lake
Okeechobee where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur with
additional development between outflow boundaries and the sea breeze.
There is a strong storm environment environment in vicinity of and
just west of the I-95 corridor late in the day, with forecast
soundings showing plenty of instability (1200-1600+ J/kg of MUCAPE),
cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at 500mb), negative lifted
index values, as well as a decent dry layer in the mid to upper
levels which will support downdraft potential (DCAPE around 1000-
1200 J/kg). Because of this, stronger storms (especially those that
are coupled with the passing shortwave energy) will be capable of
producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph,
brief heavy downpours, and small hail should updrafts be able to
overcome the layer of dry air aloft. Any lingering activity will
push back towards the coast and offshore through early evening with
dry conditions developing overnight.

The warming trend continues with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s, maybe even a couple locations near 90 degrees. A Minor HeatRisk
will expand to most of east central Florida on Sunday. Overnight
lows will increase slightly, especially across the south, with
lows generally in the 60s.

Monday-Monday night...An upper level trough across the Ohio Valley
will push eastward towards the eastern seaboard through the day. At
the surface, a strengthening low pressure system off the eastern US
coast will push a cold front across east central Florida through the
day. Current model guidance shows the cold front reaching our
northern counties by early morning/sunrise and then steadily pushing
southward through the day, clearing ECFL by early evening. Locally,
north to northeast winds will increase to around 10 mph by late
morning as the cold front pushes through. Moisture will remain
sufficient (PW values around 1.0-1.3") to support showers and storms
with the frontal boundary. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent)
chance of showers and storms through the day, with dry air building
behind the boundary. Forecast sounding show adequate instability
along the coast (600-900 J/kg of MUCAPE),cooler temperatures aloft (
-10 to -11C at 500mb), negative lifted index values, as well as
sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE around 700-900 J/kg). Because
of this, stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds of 40-40 mph, and small hail.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler due to the northeast flow
and increasing cloud cover, brining temperatures closer to normal
along the coast (low to mid 80s) and through the Orlando metro area
(mid 80s). However, temperatures will remain above normal (mid to
upper 80s) across the far interior, including portions of western
Lake/Osceola, and Okeechobee as well as the western portions of the
Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Sunday... An upper level trough across the eastern US will
push eastward and off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. An upper
level low pressure over Canada will drop down into the Great Lakes
region mid to late week before it deepens across the Mid Atlantic
States and moves out into the Atlantic by late week/early weekend.
At the surface,  high pressure will continue to build down from the
eastern US across the Florida peninsula and remain in place through
mid week. Models are coming into better agreement that a cold front
across the Deep South will then approach the local area on Thursday.
However, uncertainty remains in how cleanly the front will pass
through, with WPC showing the front clearing ECFL by early Friday
morning. Another cold front (perhaps a little stronger than the
previous front) will approach the local area Saturday, pushing
through ECFL on Sunday.

Drier air behind the front on Monday will keep conditions dry
through mid week. Rain chances then return on Thursday with the next
frontal passage, with lingering moisture maintaining scattered
showers and storms each day through the weekend. Due to the fact
that the trend in rain chances have increased through that time
frame, additional increases in rain chances are possible in future
forecast packages. Will continue to monitor those trends carefully.
As of now, the highest rain chances (50 percent area wide) occur on
Sunday with the frontal passage.

Temperatures will be on a general warming trend through early
weekend. Afternoon highs will reach low 90s across the interior by
mid week, with low 90s expanding across much of ECFL by Saturday.
Temperatures cool down slightly on Sunday behind the front, with
temperatures becoming near normal from Brevard to Osceola northward,
and slightly above normal across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee
counties. Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal with
lows generally in the 60s with low 70s possible by the weekend along
the southern Treasure Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Today-Thursday... Favorable boating conditions through Sunday before
seas begin to build again as a weak cold front moves through,
producing poor to hazardous boating conditions. Light winds shift
south to southeast (onshore) each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. Seas 2-3 ft through Sunday before building up to 7 ft in
the offshore waters on Monday with the frontal passage. Seas begin
to gradually decrease on Tuesday, with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft on
Tuesday, 3-5ft on Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday as high pressure
builds over the local waters. South to southeast winds today will
shift north to northeast on Monday behind the front. Winds will then
shift north to northeast on Tuesday, south to southeast on
Wednesday, and westerly on Thursday as another front approaches and
pushes through the local waters. Speeds will generally be around 10
KT. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast across the
local waters this afternoon and evening with isolated showers
possible on Monday and again on Thursday, but mainly north of Cape
Canaveral as the next front moves through. Mostly dry conditions
Tuesday and Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory and Small Craft
Exercise Statements will most likely be needed on Monday as seas
build to 7 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Mostly dry conditions prevail. Can`t rule out a few showers
drifting onshore, mainly from MLB northward, through this morning
along and behind a cold front. However, coverage is forecast to be
low enough to negate the need for VCSH mention. Primarily VFR
through the period, though CIGs SCT030 through the afternoon may
occasionally become BKN, and thus MVFR, today. Will continue to
watch the threat for MVFR CIGs prior to daybreak at northern
terminals, though chances remain low. Tonight, a similar
situation is forecast, with CIGs dropping to SCT020. Breezy NNE
winds, especially along the coast, with sustained winds 12-17 kts
and gusts 20-25 kts. Will see winds diminish after sunset, but
remain around 5-10 kts through 6Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light westerly flow will push the west coast sea breeze far inland
today, eventually colliding with the east coast breeze just west of
the I-95 corridor. Scattered showers and storms are forecast along
the collision late this afternoon and evening with a few storms
becoming strong. New fire starts are a concern with lightning
activity today. Winds shift overnight, becoming northeast 10-15 mph
behind a cold front passage tomorrow. MinRH recovers today and
tomorrow before a drier airmass builds again Tuesday into mid week.
Good to very good smoke dispersion is forecast early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  66  82  64 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  84  67  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  82  69  82  69 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  83  68  82  67 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  85  64  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  84  65  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  84  67  87  67 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  83  67  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion