Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

361
FXUS62 KMLB 211120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Patchy/areas of fog possible, mainly near to north of the I-4
  corridor through early this morning.

- A High Risk of rip currents persists at area beaches this
  weekend. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Low humidity values will create fire-sensitive conditions this
  weekend.

- Dry and warmer than normal conditions forecast this weekend and
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently...As high pressure nudges in from the west, weakening
winds and clear skies may still aid in patchy/areas of fog
forming through the remainder of the night through early this
morning. Hi-res guidance has been indicating greatest potential
for fog and localized visibilities of a half mile or less near to
north of the I-4 corridor. The HRRR has been backing off some on
overall coverage, but still indicates patchy dense fog will be
possible across this region. Should any fog form it will quickly
lift and diminish soon after sunrise.

Today-Monday...High pressure currently centered over the Gulf will
begin to shift eastward into Florida today and settle across the
region through late weekend into the start of the work week. This
will lead to a decrease in wind speeds, dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Highs today will be near to slightly above normal,
climbing to the upper 70s along the immediate coast and low 80s near
to west of I-95. Max temps on Sunday and Monday then rise to the low
to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be near to slightly below normal in
the low to mid 50s.

If headed to the beach this weekend, be aware that a continued
High Risk for rip currents persists along the east central
Florida coast due to a lingering easterly swell. Entering the
hazardous surf is strongly discouraged today through tomorrow!

Tuesday-Friday...A weak front is forecast to move southward into
central Florida Tuesday, with this boundary stalling and eventually
fading across the area through mid to late week. This will lead to
an increase in moisture and returning rain chances Tuesday into
Wednesday, with winds becoming onshore. PoPs currently increase up
to 20-40% mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast
Tuesday, and then range from 20-30% across the area Wednesday. There
looks to be a modest increase in instability (CAPE between 500-1000
J/kg) with this boundary, and the forecast maintains a low potential
(20-30% chance) for thunderstorms both days into midweek.
Unfortunately, rainfall amounts at this time don`t look overly
impressive from this next system, and look unlikely to bring any
relief from ongoing drought conditions. WPC forecast rainfall
totals through this time frame mostly remain less than a quarter
of an inch. As front then fades into late week, dry conditions are
then forecast Thursday and Friday.

The front doesn`t look to bring any drop in temperatures to the area
as it will remain weak and flow quickly shifts onshore. Warmer than
normal temperatures will prevail, with highs in the 80s continuing
across the area through the remainder of the work week and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Today-Monday...High pressure centered over the Gulf shifts eastward
and across the area through this weekend into early this week, which
will keep dry conditions in place across the area. Poor to hazardous
boating conditions will continue across the waters today, with
boating conditions then improving Sunday and Monday as seas slowly
subside. Wind directions vary through the period, but speeds will be
generally less than 15 knots.

A Small Craft Advisory continues over the offshore waters through 10
AM this morning for lingering seas up to 7 feet. Additionally, small
craft should exercise caution across the nearshore waters south of
the Volusia-Brevard County line for seas up to 6 feet through this
time frame. Into the late morning and through early this evening,
small craft will still need to exercise caution over the Gulf Stream
waters for seas up to 6 feet. Seas then fall to 3-5 feet on Sunday
and 2-4 feet Monday.

Tuesday-Wednesday...A front is forecast to push southward into the
coastal waters on Tuesday as it stalls and gradually fades across
the area through mid to late week. The arrival of this front will
lead to deteriorating boating conditions and an increase in showers
and potentially a few storms. A brief surge in E/NE winds (currently
forecast up to 15-25 knots) is forecast to occur late Tuesday into
Tuesday night, mainly near to north of the Cape. Additionally, a
long easterly fetch produced by high pressure north of the front is
forecast to build seas across the entire waters up to 7-10 feet from
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Patchy dense fog and low stratus has formed along and north of
the I-4 corridor this morning. Have maintained TEMPOS for reduced
CIGs and VIS for MCO-SFB-LEE-ISM-DAB through 13Z. Light and
variable winds this morning will turn NW to WNW by mid morning,
but will remain light. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form after 17Z, backing the winds onshore, mainly from MLB-SUA.
Winds then become light and variable once again in the late
afternoon and early evening (between 21-00Z). Guidance is
indicating patchy fog will once again be possible late tonight
into early Sunday morning along and north of the I-4 corridor. The
greatest potential (around 30 percent) to see visibilities 3SM or
less will be at LEE, with MCO around 20 percent. Have introduced
a 5SM SCT008 group at 08Z Sunday for LEE to show this trend.
Confidence is not high enough to include at MCO or the other
terminals at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast to continue through
this weekend and into early next week. High pressure across the Gulf
builds eastward across the area leading to dry conditions and warmer
than normal conditions. Offshore winds will become onshore along the
coast in the afternoon, with the developing east coast sea breeze.
While wind speeds will be 10 mph or less today, a very dry airmass
will allow afternoon Min RH values to fall to critical values,
between 25 to 35 percent for much of the area. A little stronger
westerly transport wind across northern sections Sunday combined
with continued critical min RH values will produce a more fire
sensitive day. Dispersion values will range from Fair to Generally
Good today. On Sunday, only Fair dispersion is forecast across far
southern sections (Okeechobee County/Treasure Coast) but improving
to Good to Very Good to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  78  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  82  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  82  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  82  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion