Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

199
FXUS62 KMLB 200001
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
701 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 655 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Tuesday morning for
  interior locations; frost possible especially north of I-4

- Warming trend through late week and the first half of the weekend

- Low rain chances return late Wednesday and continue into the
  weekend; rain amounts generally 0.10" or less

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 655 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Tonight...With mostly clear conditions forecast, temperatures
will efficiently drop into the 30s and 40s after midnight. HREF
guidance points to a 10-20% chance (or less) of reaching freezing
in far northwestern Lake and Volusia counties. However, areas of
frost is possible north of I-4 and patchy frost surrounding
urbanized metro Orlando extending south into rural portions of
Osceola/Okeechobee counties. There will also be a northerly breeze
overnight between 5 and 10 mph (up to 15 mph at the coast). Over
the interior, this light breeze and cold temperatures will combine
to produce wind chill values in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.
Thus, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Tuesday
morning, stretching from inland Volusia County to Lake Okeechobee.
Areas closer to the coast will be chilly but not cold enough to
experience these sub-30 degree wind chills.

Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure is forecast to drift toward the
Mid Atlantic by Wednesday with its influence keeping conditions
dry locally. A gradual warmup ensues, bringing us closer to normal
high temperatures by Wednesday afternoon in the low to mid 70s.
The pressure gradient around the southern periphery of the high
tightens up a bit, particularly tomorrow, leading to 10-15 mph
north-northeast winds and gusts 20-25 mph (occasionally 30 mph at
the coast). Clouds develop along the Treasure Coast Tuesday
afternoon, followed by an overall increase in low and high level
clouds Wednesday as moisture increases. Isolated showers return to
the forecast Wednesday night from Sebastian Inlet southward,
though confidence is low in rain amounting to any more than a few
hundredths of an inch.

Thursday-Sunday (modified)...Surface high pressure weakens mid to
late week but is still forecast to maintain a weak influence on
our local conditions. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to
develop near the Bahamas late this week, eventually washing out
into a nearly stationary boundary across the Atlantic, extending
toward the Florida Peninsula. Locally, northeast flow is
anticipated to continue advecting moisture towards the area and
when coupled with some energy aloft traversing the peninsula on
Thursday, will lead to a low chance (20-30%) for shower
development (favoring coastal locations).

By Friday, lingering moisture along the boundary and onshore flow
will bring another day with low chances for showers, especially
at the coast. A cold front is forecast to approach north Florida
and slow down Saturday into Sunday. There are inconsistencies in
the medium range regarding timing and when this front actually
reaches central Florida. However, rain chances reach 15-25% across
the north by Sunday as the front slowly works southward. Check
back for future updates on when this front may finally push
through the area and if any additional moisture along the front
affects rain chances early next week.

Temperatures continue warming through Saturday, reaching above
normal values areawide late this week into the weekend. Then, a
return to colder weather arrives gradually next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions remain through late afternoon
and early this evening, primarily south of Sebastian Inlet. Waves
of 5-7 ft will slowly recede, despite northerly winds remaining
15-18 kt through the overnight period. Poor conditions return to
much of the local Atlantic tomorrow morning as north-northeasterly
winds freshen again, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible
by tomorrow afternoon (especially in the Gulf Stream). Seas build
6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream in response to breezy/gusty conditions.
Winds then decrease from Wednesday night onward as high pressure
weakens over the local waters. Seas fall below 6 ft by Friday with
generally favorable boating conditions continuing into the first
half of the weekend.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast beginning Wednesday
night and continuing intermittently through at least Saturday. No
lightning storms are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR through the period. A north to northwest breeze will pick up
5-9 kts overnight. N/NE pressure gradient tightens Tue producing
12-15 kts gusting up to 25 knots, esp along the coast. There will
be some increase in marine stratocu crossing the coast MLB-SUA
with bases 035-040 AGL. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Dry conditions persist Tuesday with relative humidity values
falling into the 30 percent range north of I-4. With a north-
northeast breeze 10-15 mph, sensitive fire conditions may develop
in the afternoon. From Wednesday onward, moisture begins to return
to the area, lowering fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  37  61  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  39  63  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  42  67  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  43  69  57  74 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  35  61  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  37  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  38  63  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  42  69  56  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion