Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

087
FXUS62 KMLB 301954
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- East Central Florida residents and visitors should take
  advantage of today`s pleasant weather to prepare for multiple
  nights of hard freezes this weekend.

- Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong frequent
  wind gusts 35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts over 50 mph possible.
  A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida
  Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Preparations for the
  cold should be made before these winds d arrive.

- A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning have been
  issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night into
  Sunday. Dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a
  hard freeze likely with low temperatures in the 20s Sunday
  morning. Additional watches/warnings for the following nights
  are likely.


- A Gale Warning has been issued for rapidly deteriorating and
  dangerous boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as
  winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are
  likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today-Tonight... Ridging aloft will remain in place with short wave
energy traversing across the Florida peninsula today as an upper
level low drops down from the Midwest into the Deep South into
tonight. At the surface, weak high pressure over Florida will push
offshore ahead of a low pressure system developing over and tracking
across the Deep South. Locally, light and variable winds will turn
westerly and increase to 5-10 mph this afternoon. While most areas
will remain dry today, there is a low (20 percent) chance of showers
across St. Lucie and Martin counties today as moisture from the
Bahamas lifts northward into the Treasure coast and southeast
Florida, resulting in a few showers across those areas. However, CAM
guidance is still showing some rain chances across the rest of the
CWA into this afternoon. Confidence is very low this will occur
since the environment doesn`t support rain chances across those
areas (so kept rain chances at 10 percent or lower).

Near normal temperatures are forecast today before well below
normal, and even historic, temperatures are forecast into this
weekend. Because of this, today presents a perfect opportunity to
prepare for the arctic air outbreak and strong winds this weekend.
Afternoon highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s under
partly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday-Sunday... An upper level low pressure will swing into and
across the Deep South on Saturday and offshore the eastern US on
Sunday as it lifts northward. At the surface, a low pressure system
across the Deep South will push eastward on Saturday, deepening as
it pushes offshore the GA/Carolina coast in the afternoon. This will
push the associated strong cold front quickly across the Florida
peninsula through the day Saturday. High pressure off the TX/LA
coasts will then build eastward across the Florida peninsula on
Sunday. This cold front will result in significant winds and
historic cold temperatures across the local areas this weekend.
Forecast PW values are around 0.8-1.1" ahead of the front on
Saturday before dropping to 0.3-0.5" behind the front on Saturday,
and 0.1-0.2" on Sunday. This brief increase in moisture ahead of the
front will support a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers Saturday
morning across all of east central Florida (with the highest
potential from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward). Lightning
storms are not forecast at this time. Dry conditions will then
spread across the area behind the front into Sunday, resulting in no
mentionable rain chances through that time.

The pressure gradient across the local area will quickly tighten on
Saturday as the low rapidly deepens offshore. This will result in
the west-northwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph with frequent
gusts 35-45 mph, and there is a 20-30% chance for gusts to exceed 50
mph, Saturday afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued
Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Winds are then forecast
to decrease to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph inland during the
overnight hours. Will continue to monitor forecast trends as there
is a potential for higher gusts to linger longer in the overnight
hours. North-northwest winds at 15-20 mph (gusts up to 25 mph
possible) Sunday morning will decrease to 10-15 mph in the
afternoon, and 5-10 mph Sunday night.

Historic cold temperatures are forecast this weekend as strong cold
air advection on the western side of the low brings down arctic air
across Florida. Temperatures Saturday will only reach the mid 50s to
mid 60s around 2 PM before plummeting to Low 40s to mid 50s by
sunset, with sub-freezing temperatures arriving in the northern
counties prior to midnight. A hard freeze is forecast for all of
East Central Florida for much of Saturday night and Sunday morning,
as well as Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures continue
to crash into the low to mid 20s across the interior, including all
of the Orlando Metro Area, and mid to upper 20 along the coastal
corridor. These forecast lows are about 5-10 degrees below daily
records for most locations (Orlando is forecast to be 3 degrees
below their record low temperature), and threatening the coldest
temperatures for the month of February for all but Orlando. These
cold temperatures combined with the strong and gusty northwest
winds, will produce wind chills that are bitterly cold during the
day, and dangerous in the evening and overnight, as values drop into
the 20s shortly after sunset, before decreasing to the single digits
and teens late Saturday night into Sunday morning, and into the
teens and 20s Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday temperatures
will remain about 2-10 degrees below daily record "cool highs" with
afternoon highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning have been issued for
all of east central Florida from Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon. Like the previous shift stated, the last time this
product (called a Wind Chill Warning at that time) was issued by NWS
Melbourne was January 2014 (just for Lake and Volusia Counties), and
the last time it was issued for ALL of east central Florida was
December 2010. People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will
face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze,
and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if
not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms
is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected.  Thus,
please prepare for multiple nights of dangerous cold weather!
Additional Extreme Cold and Freeze Watch/Warnings will likely be
needed for Sunday night into Monday morning for portions if not all
of the CWA. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed Saturday
evening into early next week for beach erosion and rough surf.


Monday-Thursday... High pressure axis will remain over the Florida
peninsula through early week with the center of high pressure moving
over the Florida peninsula from the west on Tuesday. The center of
high pressure will then shift offshore into the Atlantic midweek
ahead of the next cold front. Locally, winds will continue to
diminish through early week as winds turn from the northwest on
Monday to the north to northeast on Tuesday. Winds will then turn
west to southwest on Wednesday and northwest on Thursday ahead of
the next cold front. There remains uncertainty with this next
frontal passage, as global models continue to have considerable
differences with the evolution. However, this frontal passage is not
forecast to have the same potency as the one we`re currently
preparing for. Dry conditions are forecast through early week,
before rain chances return midweek with isolated showers starting
Wednesday night through Thursday.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the forecast
period, despite the warming trend through mid week.  Wednesday is
forecast to be the closest day to near normal temperatures before
decreasing once again on Thursday with the frontal passage (but will
remain above record cold). Freezing temperatures will once again be
possible Monday night into Tuesday morning for at least portions of
east central Florida. While winds will continue to diminish, wind
chills dropping into the 20s will remain be possible. Lows then
should remain above freezing through the rest of the period, with
temperatures slowly increasing into midweek before dropping slightly
on Thursday with the front. Frost will become a concern Tuesday
night into Wednesday however.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today-Tonight.... Weak high pressure over the Florida peninsula will
push offshore tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system
and associated cold front. Generally favorable boating conditions
are forecast today with poor boating conditions developing late
tonight across the offshore waters. West to northwest winds at 5-10
KT this afternoon will increase to 10-15 KT across the nearshore,
and 15-20 KT in the offshore tonight. Small craft should exercise
caution in the offshore waters tonight. Seas 2-3ft today, increasing
up to 5ft in the offshore waters overnight. Isolated to scattered
showers possible tonight ahead of the front.

Saturday-Sunday... Deteriorating marine conditions through the
period, with dangerous boating conditions through much of the
weekend. Mariners should remain in port! The low pressure system
will push into the Deep South and then offshore the GA/Carolina
coast Saturday, rapidly deepening as it pushes offshore. The
associated cold front is then forecast to push through the local
Atlantic waters Saturday. Northwesterly winds will increase to 20-30
KT late Saturday morning behind the front, then surge to 30-40 KT
Saturday night. Gusts will frequently reach high-end Gale strength,
and occasional gusts to Storm-force cannot be ruled out Saturday
night. Seas will build 3-5 ft in the nearshore and 5-8 ft in the
afternoon on Saturday, before increasing to 8-12 ft in the nearshore
waters and 12-17 ft in the offshore waters Saturday night. As the
low lifts northeast Sunday winds will slacken to 25-35 KT with
higher gusts through much of the day. This will result in seas
beginning to subside, with seas up to 10 ft in the nearshore waters
and up to 14 ft in the offshore waters by Sunday evening. Isolated
to scattered showers will remain possible Saturday and Saturday
night. There is potential for flurries over portions of the local
Atlantic waters Saturday night. No lightning storms are forecast at
this time.

A Gale Warning has been issued for all central Florida Atlantic
waters starting 10 AM Saturday and going through Sunday afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all the Atlantic
waters the rest of Sunday, and at least portions of the local waters
through at least Monday.

Monday-Tuesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
through early next week as high pressure builds over Florida behind
the departing low. Lingering seas of 5-11 ft on Monday morning will
subside to 4-7ft by Tuesday afternoon. Northwest winds will dominate
through the period while slowly diminishing. Small Craft Advisory
and small craft cautionary headlines will likely be needed through
early week. Dry conditions are forecast through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. A few light
showers near SUA look to persist through the afternoon, before
drier conditions return overnight. Westerly winds around 10 kts
today become light towards sunset through around 12Z.

A strengthening low pressure system will drag a cold front
through east central Florida on Saturday. A few light showers
cannot be ruled out near sunrise from around SFB southward.
Chances will diminish from north to south through the morning,
though will linger along the Treasure Coast into early afternoon.
Westerly winds increase after sunrise, becoming strong into the
afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of east central
Florida after 20Z. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts and gusts 30-35
kts are forecast. A few gusts to near 45 kts will be possible.
Airport Weather Warnings for sustained winds may be needed at MCO
and DAB. Strong winds will then continue through the overnight
hours, as temperatures plummet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph Saturday
afternoon will lead to containment issues of any fires. Sensitive
to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as
humidity drops below 35% while northwesterly winds remain around
15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph or less Monday,
but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due to humidity
values less than 30%.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  24 02/18/1958   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/26/1967   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        25 02/18/1958   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      27 02/26/1967   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     28 02/24/1989   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  56  23  45 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  49  58  25  46 /  20  20   0   0
MLB  49  63  23  48 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  48  63  26  49 /  20  30   0   0
LEE  46  55  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  47  57  24  45 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  49  57  25  45 /  10  20   0   0
FPR  47  64  25  50 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
     547-647-747.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
     547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550-
     552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion