Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

723
FXUS62 KMLB 251910
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
310 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Lower rain chances (20-40%) focused inland this evening and on
  Tuesday afternoon/evening; coastal showers possible Tue/Wed
  mornings

- The High Risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  Atlantic beaches. Avoid swimming in the rough surf. A Moderate
  HeatRisk continues as well, so stay hydrated if are spending
  time outdoors this week.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Wednesday/Thursday,
  lasting through next weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be
  beneficial for drought conditions, but repeated rounds of storms
  may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Now-Tuesday...Gusty winds are affecting much of east central Florida
this afternoon, peaking between 20-30 mph (and slightly higher along
the Melbourne-to-Stuart portion of the coast). Low-level cumulus is
streaming northwestward with short-lived, isolated showers
along/west of the east coast sea breeze. The sea breeze has moved
west of I-95 and will continue pushing toward the west coast through
early evening. As it does, a few more showers and perhaps a storm
are possible north and west of Orlando (e.g. Lake County). That
being said, a lot of dry air remains above 800mb, so most locations
are likely to stay rain-free. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s are combining with upper 60s/low 70s dew points to produce heat
index values from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Stay cool and
hydrated if spending the rest of the afternoon outdoors. Also, a
high risk of rip currents continues at area beaches, and entering
the surf is strongly discouraged.

Tonight into early Tuesday, isolated coastal showers again become
possible, particularly south of Cape Canaveral. Temps will settle
into the mid 70s inland and remain close to the 80-degree mark along
the coast. A similar story is forecast Tuesday with a significant
amount of dry air residing over east-central Florida. Coastal
showers in the morning (if any) will slowly translate westward as
the east coast breeze moves inland. The forecast maintains a 15-20%
chance of rain closer to the coast with 30-40% Orlando westward. By
the late evening or early Wednesday morning hours, CAMs redevelop
showers along the coast. A 15-25% chance for showers exists at that
time, though chances could go up if confidence increases or push
back from interior showers/storms occurs.

Wednesday-Sunday...H5 ridging that has been centered to the east of
the FL Peninsula will begin to break down later Wed. into Thu. as
troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure also
sinks southeastward late week into next weekend, opening the door
for increasingly S/SW surface flow. A wetter pattern sets up from
Thursday onward as moisture surges northeast from the Gulf. The east
coast breeze may form Thursday/Friday but remain pinned or diffuse
along the immediate coast. SW flow with deepening moisture leads to
65-80% rain/storm chances from Thursday into the weekend. The east
coast will be increasingly favored as any activity that forms over
the interior slides eastward each afternoon and evening. Water-
loaded downdrafts could produce strong gusty winds, along with the
potential for locally heavy rain and lightning strikes. A shortwave
is set to arrive by Saturday, though there are still some slight
disagreements in exactly when. This will give another boost to rain
chances areawide. Even though we have been in a period of drought,
localized flooding issues may develop by the weekend where repeated
heavy rains occur. The current QPF highlights 1-2.5" of rain
Thursday through Monday morning areawide, with the highest totals of
3"+ focused along the coast (particularly south of Cape Canaveral).

Temperatures through Friday will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s
(heat indices upper 90s to low 100s) before dropping back into the
80s this weekend, due to rain and cloud cover. Therefore, a Moderate
HeatRisk continues for a sizable portion of the area through at
least Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Small craft should exercise caution across the local Atlantic from
this evening through Tuesday as winds freshen at times, nearing 20
kt across the far southern Treasure Coast waters. Seas remain 3-5
ft through Wed., decreasing to 2-4 ft Thursday onward. However,
rain chances go up mid to late week (60%+) as moisture increases
and winds turn increasingly offshore. Lightning storms are
possible and may lead to locally higher winds/seas at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at ECFL terminals through the TAF period.
Breezy/gusty this afternoon especially along the coast. SE winds
10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts at inland terminals, up to 15-20
kts with gusts pushing towards 30 kts at coastal terminals,
highest KMLB-KSUA. Drier air limiting coverage of afternoon-
evening TSRA/SHRA INVOF ECFL terminals to ISO, and fresh onshore
flow expected to usher anything that develops west fairly quickly,
and any convective impacts should be brief. Sea breeze collision
well west of ECFL terminals after 23Z. Chances for coastal SHRA
return tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds only settling to around
10 kts at most ECFL terminals tonight, and could remain gusty
along the coast from KTIX-KSUA, then pick back up to 10-15 kts
inland and 15-20 kts along the coast with gusts 20-30 kts again
Tuesday shortly after sunrise. Slightly higher chances for
afternoon-evening TSRA/SHRA Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  76  89 /  20  20  20  50
MCO  75  91  75  90 /  10  30  20  60
MLB  79  88  78  88 /  20  20  20  40
VRB  78  89  78  89 /  20  20  20  40
LEE  76  91  75  90 /  30  40  40  60
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  10  20  20  60
ORL  76  91  75  90 /  10  30  20  60
FPR  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion