Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

930
FXUS62 KMLB 132323
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
623 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 620 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Tonight, a couple degrees warmer with isolated to widely
  scattered showers developing, perhaps an isolated lightning
  storm south of Melbourne, as moisture increases.

- Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
  bringing a brief increase in rain chances.

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning
  lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially Friday
  morning and next Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Florida remains under weak surface high
pressure between a stationary front draped across the Florida
Straits to our south and a deep low pressure system tracking
across the eastern US to our north. Moisture in proximity of the
stationary front extending into Central Florida and a weak surface
trough lingering right along/off the Atlantic coast are producing
lots of cloud cover, and even a few light sprinkles this
afternoon. Through the rest of the evening and overnight, the
trough and front are forecast to gradually consolidate into a weak
surface low that will begin to lift north-northeastward, dragging
higher moisture over the area. Very low (20% or less) rain
chances this afternoon gradually increase northward, topping out
at 20-30% inland late tonight/early Wednesday morning, before
shifting offshore as drier air starts to get wrapped behind a
developing weak cool front. Can`t rule out a lightning storm
across the Treasure Coast counties and maybe southern Brevard.
Afternoon highs up a bit but still in the U60s-M70s. Overnight
lows up to he L50s-M60s.

Wednesday-Thursday...The weak surface low will continue to lift
northeastward, pulling the attendant NNE-SSW oriented cool front
draped across the southeast Florida peninsula in the morning
offshore by the afternoon. Cool air advection in westerly flow
behind this boundary subtly brings temperatures down a bit across
most of the area, with Wednesday afternoon highs in the M60-L70s
for all but the Treasure Coast counties who remain in the M-U70s.
The low early morning rain chances (20-30%) push offshore as the
drier and cooler air filters in. There is a low (around 20%)
chance for a lightning storm to develop over the Treasure Coast
counties, and the nearby Atlantic waters. Some gusty conditions
possible Wednesday afternoon with 10-15 mph winds.

A slug of very chilly air by way of a pair of cold fronts then
pushes into Florida, with the first front arriving Wednesday
night, followed by the stronger reinforcing front arriving
Thursday morning. Some moisture recovery is expected in proximity
of the first front (PWATs down to below 1" in places Wednesday
afternoon increasing to 1.25-1.35" overnight), which combined
with ample forcing will support areawide 40-60% rain chances
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. However, instability for
deep convection is virtually non-existent (MUCAPE only 200 J/kg at
best across the southern counties), and as a result lightning
storms aren`t expected. There is still some degree of uncertainty
when and how much rain locations will receive. General CAMs
consensus and HREF has rounds of showers pushing through between 7
PM Wednesday and 9 AM Thursday, but could see showers get started
as early as 4 PM pretty much anywhere, and linger into the late
morning across the southern counties. QPF also runs the gambit.
HREF 24-hour max falls short of half an inch, which is inline with
a very dry GFS at around 0.10" in the operational and 0.10-0.25"
90th percentile in the ensemble. The ECM is a little more
optimistic at 0.20-0.40" in the operational and up to around 0.60"
90th percentile in a band across the northernmost counties in the
ensemble. Overall the rainfall assessment looks to be most places
will get 0.10" or less, while a few lucky spots receive up to
around 0.50".

Temperatures drop a bit Wednesday night, back down into the
U40s-U50s, then plunge Thursday between the arrival of the second
front and cloudy skies. Afternoon highs forecast to remain chilly
in the U50s north of I-4, struggle to make it to the 60s along the
corridor, and only reach the 60s to the south. Breezy
northwesterly winds (approaching 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph)
will add some bite to the cool Thursday temperatures.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday
morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not
changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the prospect of
temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in
addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south as
Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest
breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a
majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will be
needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds decrease
through the day Friday into early Saturday as high pressure
builds over the peninsula behind the fronts. Despite plenty of sun
Friday afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of
the 50s from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s
south). Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for
another cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight,
there is a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over
portions of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback,
climbing into the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this
front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures
swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the
30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing
temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the
front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with
values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Generally favorable ableit a bit rainy
boating conditions nearshore forecast through the day Wednesday.
A weak low pressure system developing from a surface trough near
the Atlantic coast and a stationary front draped over Florida
Straits lifts into portions of the peninsula and local Atlantic
waters tonight, then pushes well offshore by Wednesday evening.
Winds will be shifty at 5-10 kts until the system departs,
becoming westerly 10-15 kts nearshore and 15-20 kts (briefly over
20 kts in the afternoon) offshore Wednesday. Small craft should
exercise caution offshore Wednesday. Rain chances 20% or less this
afternoon gradually increase to 20-30% early Wednesday morning as
higher moisture lifts into the area with this system, then
decrease through the rest of the morning and afternoon as it
departs. An isolated lightning storm mainly across the southern
waters and coast can`t be ruled out. Seas 2-4 ft.

Wednesday Night-Saturday...Boating conditions deteriorate
Wednesday night and Thursday as a pair of strong cold fronts
quickly push through Florida and the local Atlantic waters.
Westerly winds 10-20 kts early Wednesday night shift northwesterly
and increase to 15-25 kts by Thursday morning, then further
increase to 20-30 kts Thursday evening, before settling down to
10-15 kts from the north by Friday morning. Seas build to 3-5 ft
across the waters by Thursday morning, then jump to 7-10 ft
offshore, possibly higher in the Gulf Stream Thursday night. Seas
subdued closer to shore by the offshore wind component, but still
building to 4-7 ft. Seas subside through Friday, settling to 2-5
ft Friday night. Boating conditions briefly more favorable
Saturday before another cold front. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated lightning storms possible Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon, then dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 622 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Continued VFR CIGs generally 045-060 AGL for much of the period
with ocnl breaks. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop MCO northward
aft 08Z through 14Z-16Z then VFR conds return, again. Winds
becoming light/variable this evening. Increasing WRLY winds on Wed
up to around 15 kts, with frequent higher gusts, esp along the
coast. Crosswind issues may be encountered Wed at MCO. Surging
moisture overnight into Wed, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT (low confidence)
convective chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  66  49  60 /  30  30  50  40
MCO  58  69  53  60 /  30  20  60  40
MLB  60  72  53  65 /  30  30  50  50
VRB  61  74  53  67 /  30  30  40  60
LEE  55  67  50  59 /  20  20  60  30
SFB  56  68  51  60 /  30  20  60  40
ORL  58  68  52  60 /  30  20  60  40
FPR  61  75  53  68 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion