Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

155
FXUS62 KMLB 210616
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Frequently gusty ENE/E winds and drier today will lead to very
  sensitive to critical fire weather conditions.

- Beach and boating conditions remain poor to hazardous through
  at least the middle of the week.

- Warming trend Friday into the weekend, with isolated lightning
  storm chances gradually returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Current-Tonight...Post-frontal conditions as drier and cooler air
filter down the peninsula. The pressure gradient remains rather
tight into today. Current NE winds fall to around 5 mph across the
interior and Volusia coast early this morning, with winds remaining
elevated 12-16 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts and higher
gusts. During the daylight hours, veering ENE/E winds will ramp
back up to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts. Over much of the
interior wind gusts will approach 25 mph at times and up to 30 mph
(possibly 35 mph) along the Space/Treasure coasts. Winds diminish
during the evening. Mainly dry conditions forecast today with
MSunny skies, though may see some stratocu pushing onto the Space
& Treasure coasts early in the period. Highs will reach the U70s
along the coast and 80F to L80s into the interior. With the
onshore flow, overnight mins will keep in the 60s along the coast
with U50s (few M50s) across the interior. May have to monitor for
tonight in the event a small PoP is necessary over the local
coastal waters or along the coast for light, onshore-moving,
precip.

Expect poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions to continue
today. At the beaches, moderate to strong onshore flow will keep
rough surf ongoing. A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-
threatening rip currents will also be present at ALL central FL Atlc
beaches. Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly discouraged!

Wed-Mon...Aloft, weak shortwave ridging across the Deep South will
slide eastward over the FL peninsula into early Wed. A weak
"troughy" pattern in the mid-levels takes up residency over the
region later Wed into late work-week. At the surface, weak high
pressure builds from the southeast U.S. into the western Atlc. This
will keep any frontal passages at bay until at least Sun night into
early Mon. A weakening onshore flow pattern exists from mid to late
work-week. We may still have to monitor for some "low-topped"
coastal showers early Wed into Thu, though chances (if introduced)
should remain 20pct or less. The pressure gradient remains weak into
the weekend and on Mon and expect "daily" late day/early evening
sea breeze boundary collisions across the interior. ISOLD-WDLY SCT
(20-30pct) convection may ignite from these collisions with modest
moisture present.

More seasonal high temps continuepotential Wed/Thu, with the
onshore flow
- U70s coast and L80s interior, then a warming trend ensues Fri-Mon
with max values approaching M-U80s and potential 90F over the
interior (Sun-Mon).

Onshore flow will continue to keep coastal areas in the 60s for
mins, and drier air will allow interior locations to dip into the M-
U50s thru Fri morning, with 60s returning almost areawide Sat-Tue
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue and we will slowly
trim back the Small Craft Advisory (north to south) during the day
and tonight as winds/seas gradually diminish/subside. Onshore winds
continue to slacken mid-week into late work-week. As this happens,
we may see an offshore component develop at night Fri overnight into
the weekend, with winds, again, transitioning to onshore each
afternoon. Seas 3-5 ft areawide by early Wed, continuing to subside
to AOB 3 ft areawide by early Fri. We`ll see if any light precip
(20pct or less) can develop across the local waters later tonight
thru Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals. Northeast winds 10
to 15 knots continue early this morning, with wind gusts to 25
knots still ongoing from VRB southward. Winds pick back up to 15
to 20 knots after 15Z with gusts to 30 knots possible. Dry
conditions areawide. Winds become lighter around 10 knots late
this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Very sensitive fire weather conditions will exist today. Breezy to
windy ENE/E winds 15-20 mph, with wind gusts to around 25 mph across
the interior and up to 30 to 35 mph along the coast. Min RH values
will fall to 28-35% across much of the interior this afternoon
within the Red Flag Warning, and generally 40-50% across coastal
areas. Conditions along the coast will also remain very sensitive as
winds are highest here.

Easterly winds diminish to 10-15 mph Wednesday, while RH recovers to
40-50% across the interior. Very Good to Excellent dispersion may
lead to control issues into mid-week. Onshore winds continue to
slacken Thursday into the weekend, with a slight RH recovery -
though lowest RHs across the interior will still realize 35-45%.
Potential sea breeze collisions daily beginning Thursday across the
interior into the weekend. Will monitor for isolated lightning storm
threat as any cloud-to-ground lightning strikes could initiate new
fire starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  60  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  80  60  79  62 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  78  65  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  63  78  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  60  81  62 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  77  63  78  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion