Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

461
FXUS62 KMLB 091053
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
653 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and
  evening, mainly from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as
  Orlando. Some storms may be strong.

- Fire Sensitive weather conditions are forecast Today as Min RH
  values decrease to 35-40 percent across the interior this
  afternoon.

- Chance for showers and storms will continue each afternoon and
  evening this weekend through Thursday. Some storms may be
  strong to severe, especially Sunday and Monday.

- Highs remain above normal through Monday with peak heat indices
  forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100F (locally).
  Temperatures become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday
  before slowly increasing once again into mid/late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure axis will remain across
the Florida peninsula as it slowly shifts eastward. A weak frontal
boundary across the north-central Florida peninsula will begin to
lift northward into northern Florida through the day. Locally, ample
moisture will remain in place as south to southwest flow dominates,
with PW values ranging from 1.4-1.8". This will support a low to
medium (20-50%) chance of rain this afternoon. The highest rain
chances will be along the coast from Vero Beach northward and as far
inland as the Orlando Metro. CAM guidance shows showers and
lightning storms will form along the east coast sea breeze in the
afternoon as it pushes inland, with a collision with the west coast
sea breeze across the interior (generally east of Orlando) late in
the afternoon/early evening. The environment will support lightning
storms this afternoon, and a few storms may be strong, especially
along the coast. Forecast soundings shows ample instability along
the coast(MUCAPE 1300 J/kg), a negative lifted index,  sufficient
shear (30-50 KT at SFC-8km), and plenty of downdraft potential
(DCAPE 1000+ J/kg). Because of this, storms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and
locally heavy downpours. Temperatures aloft will be much like they
were on Friday (around -8C at 500 mb), so hail will be limited, but
small hail will be possible.

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast for today due to min
RH values dropping to 35% in some locations this afternoon,
especially across the interior south of Orlando. Wind speeds will be
around 10 KT, which will below criteria for a Red Flag Warning.

Guidance is indicating there is potential for low stratus and maybe
patchy fog into early this morning, mainly along and north of the I-
4 corridor. Any fog that does manage to form will dissipate by 9 AM.
Hot and humid conditions continue today with temperatures remaining
on a warming trend. Afternoon highs will soar into the low to mid
90s. These temperatures combined with humidity, will produce peak
heat indices around 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm,
providing little relief, with lows in the 70s. These hot and humid
conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

Sunday-Monday... Upper level high pressure over the
Carribean/western Atlantic will slowly shift southward into early
week, with the axis remaining across south Florida. Several rounds
of shortwave energy will traverse across north-central Florida each
day. A weak front will approach the area on Monday, pushing through
east central Florida Monday night. Locally, southwest winds on
Sunday will veer westerly on Monday, and northwest on Monday night
ahead of the front. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form
each day, with the sea breeze moving farther inland on Sunday and
being pinned closer to the coast on Monday in the stronger offshore
flow. Ample moisture will remain present across the local area (PW
values 1.6-1.9"), which will support a medium to high (30-70
percent) chance of rain both days. Highest rain and storm chances
will be across the interior on Sunday, and generally from Orlando
eastward on Monday.

Some storms may be strong to marginally severe. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has put all of the Florida peninsula into a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday, and will likely have at least
portions of east central FL in a Marginal Risk on Monday. The storm
environment supports this with forecast soundings showing ample
instability (MUCAPE 1200-2000 J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km of 30-
40 KT), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg).
The primary storm threat will be strong to damaging wind gusts, with
frequent lightning, and small hail being a secondary threat both
days.

Hot and humid conditions will continue into early next week, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 95-
100 degrees each day. Overnight lows will be warm, providing little
relief, with lows in the 70s. These hot and humid conditions will
produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Fire sensitive conditions will
continue on Sunday as min RH values drop to 40-45 percent.

Tuesday-Friday... A series of upper level troughs across the Great
Lakes region will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic through
late week. The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to push
into South Florida by early Tuesday morning, stalling across South
Florida before slowly lifting back northward through midweek.
Surface high pressure will then build over the local area from the
Deep South behind the front. Locally, winds behind the front will
quickly veer onshore as high pressure builds offshore the Mid-
Atlantic coast Tuesday and remain through late week. The east coast
sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15
mph. Lingering moisture and instability north of the front on
Tuesday will continue shower and storm chances. There is a medium to
high ( 30-60 percent) chance of rain, especially in the afternoon.
The highest potential for showers and storms on Tuesday will be from
Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee eastward. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms continue Wednesday and Thursday, mainly from Cape
Canaveral southward. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Friday.
Temperatures return closer to seasonal values on Tuesday (in the
80s) behind the front, but then steadily increase into the low 90s
by mid-late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Today-Wednesday... Generally favorable boating conditions into early
next week. A weak front across north-central Florida will lift
northward into north Florida through the day today. Another weak
front will then approach on Monday, passing through the local waters
on Monday night and shifting into South Florida on Tuesday. The
front will then slowly shift back northward through mid week. S/SE
winds at  10-15 KT through Sunday will veer offshore in the
evening/overnight (and may increase briefly late each day/evening to
15-20 KT promoting temporary poor boating). SW winds ahead of the
boundary at 10-15 KT will become N/NW post-frontal on Mon
overnight/early Tuesday, then shift NE/E during the day Tuesday
increasing to 15-20 KT. Seas 2-4ft will increase to 3-5ft on Tuesday
and up to 7ft in the offshore waters by Tuesday night before
subsiding to 4-6ft on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms forecast each afternoon and evening. A few storms
may be strong to marginally severe. Primary storm threats will be
frequent lightning strikes and strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

A mix of BR and lower CIGs this morning is leading to MVFR conds
at times (LIFR at LEE). By 13z-14z, conditions will improve,
giving way to SCT/BKN CIGs this afternoon. Westerly winds 8-14 kt
with occasional gusts at the coast will turn onshore after 18z as
the ECSB forms. Along the breeze, iso/sct TSRA are forecast thru
at least 00z. Activity will drift offshore as it dissipates by
01-03z Sun. Occasional CIG/VIS reductions at coastal sites, esp.
MLB northward, are possible due to TSRA.

Calmer winds after 03z Sun. may allow for more BR or low clouds to
develop, but confidence is too low at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Today-Sunday... Fire sensitive weather conditions are forecast
through the weekend. Min RH values will drop to 35-40 percent this
afternoon, mainly across the interior, with min RH values dropping
to 40-50 percent on Sunday afternoon. South to southwest winds will
be around 10 mph each day, with the east coast sea breeze backing
the winds onshore (E-SE) and increasing to 10-15 mph each afternoon,
mainly east of Orlando. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms will be possible each afternoon. Lightning strikes could
cause new fires. Temperatures will be hot and humid this weekend
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices
of 95-100 degrees.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  73  90  73 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  95  75  93  75 /  30  10  60  30
MLB  93  78  90  78 /  30  20  50  30
VRB  95  76  92  77 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  92  73  92  74 /  10  10  30  10
SFB  95  73  93  73 /  30  10  50  30
ORL  94  75  93  75 /  30  10  50  30
FPR  95  76  92  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  73  90  73 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  95  75  93  75 /  30  10  60  30
MLB  93  78  90  78 /  30  20  50  30
VRB  95  76  92  77 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  92  73  92  74 /  10  10  30  10
SFB  95  73  93  73 /  30  10  50  30
ORL  94  75  93  75 /  30  10  50  30
FPR  95  76  92  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion