Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

562
FXUS62 KMLB 180721
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Dry and warm this weekend with interior sites approaching record
  highs today

- Cold front Sunday night into Monday brings windy conditions,
  cooler temperatures, and a short-lived chance for rain

- Beach and boating conditions will deteriorate Sunday night into
  early next week as winds create rough surf and building seas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today-Sunday...We begin this Saturday morning monitoring the
potential for patchy, locally dense fog. Dew point depressions are
narrowing to 1-3 degrees as of 2 AM, and model soundings indicate
this will continue through 6 AM or so. HREF probabilities of less
than one-half mile visibility are 30-50% over a sizable portion of
the area. This includes the Orlando metro, Titusville, and points
south to parts of rural Osceola, Okeechobee, Indian River, and St.
Lucie counties. Those traveling early this morning should exercise
caution if encountering dense fog. Slow down, use low-beam
headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles.
Any fog will quickly dissipate by 8-9 AM as daytime heating/mixing
resumes.

With high pressure, a relatively dry airmass, and light winds in
place, temperatures will soar into the 80s and low 90s this
afternoon. It will stay a few degrees cooler (mid 80s) at the coast,
due to the east coast sea breeze. Interior locations will likely
push the 90-degree mark, with places like Leesburg approaching a
daily record. Yesterday, we fell short of forecast highs by several
degrees, so today`s forecast highs lean a little closer to NBM25
than NBM50. That said, H85 temps will increase a bit more, reaching
the 75th-90th percentile of climatology. If outdoors, especially for
those more sensitive to the heat, be sure to take breaks in the
shade or A/C and stay hydrated. Temperatures this evening settle
into the 70s before midnight and feeling a bit more humid. Overnight
lows are forecast to reach the mid 60s to low 70s (coast).

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches today.
Swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

Sunday Night-Friday...500mb flow veers northwesterly late Sunday
night into Monday, coincident with modest height falls. Broad mid
level troughing sets up over the U.S. east coast Monday as a cold
front pushes south of our area. As the surface pressure gradient
tightens around a high pressure center (near the Great Lakes/OH
Valley), northeast winds increase locally on Monday and Tuesday.
Sustained speeds of 15-25 mph with occasional gusts 30-35 mph are
forecast, particularly closer to the coast. Temperatures are also
going to be noticeably cooler to start the new work week, dropping to
slightly below normal levels through Wednesday (mid 70s/low 80s).
Plentiful moisture (1.4-1.6" PW) from Orlando/Melbourne southward
will support a good bit of cloud cover and low to medium rain
chances on Monday. The highest chances look to be focused from
Melbourne south along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee
(30-50%). An isolated lightning storm or two cannot be ruled out,
but overall instability will remain limited.

Drier air quickly presses south into Tuesday, bringing an end to our
rain chances. H5 heights briefly/weakly build on Wednesday with
lighter onshore winds returning (10-15 mph, gusts to 20 mph).
Guidance indicates a modest shortwave moving across the eastern Gulf
and FL Peninsula Wed-Thu, but there is not a lot of support for
precipitation mid to late week. For now, the forecast keeps out any
mention of rainfall through Friday. More sunshine, especially
Thursday and Friday, should help temperatures rebound to
near/slightly above normal. Look for mostly dry conditions and even
warmer air to return heading into the last weekend of April.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Favorable boating conditions stick around through the weekend with 2-
3 ft seas and winds generally 10-14 kt or less. A brief shower
cannot be ruled out late tonight, primarily south of Sebastian
Inlet. Otherwise, dry weather prevails until Sunday night and early
Monday when a cold front pushes south across the waters. Rain
chances increase to 30-50% with an isolated lightning storm possible
through Monday evening. Winds and seas are forecast to build behind
the front, from north to south. Northeast winds 20-30 kt are
anticipated by sunrise Monday morning north of Sebastian Inlet,
along with 5-9 ft seas. As the pressure gradient tightens and
expands southward, seas will continue to build across all the local
waters Monday into early Tuesday. Wave heights reach 7-9 ft
nearshore and up to 11 ft in the Gulf Stream Monday night. Seas
remain poor to hazardous Tuesday before winds begin to decrease into
Wednesday. Poor conditions may linger through mid week south of the
Cape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Light and variable to calm winds continue at all east central
Florida terminals this morning. There is a low chance for patchy
fog development across most of east central Florida, but
confidence in this remains too low to include within the forecast.
Will monitor and amend as necessary. Any fog that does manage to
develop would diminish after sunrise. Winds pick up out of the
southeast around 10 knots after 15Z. Progression inland of the
west coast sea breeze may cause winds to become more westerly at
LEE after 21Z. By 00Z, winds are forecast to slacken, becoming
light and variable to calm overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Patchy, locally dense fog is possible this morning across much of
east central Florida. Warm and mostly dry weather continues this
weekend with high pressure remaining in place. Humidity values are
forecast to fall near critical levels across the interior this
afternoon, before moisture slowly returns to the area Sunday into
Monday. Light and variable wind this morning turns onshore along the
coast as the sea breeze develops. The west coast breeze is forecast
to move inland late in the afternoon, colliding with the east coast
breeze over the interior this evening. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20
mph are possible behind the breezes.

A cold front approaches late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a
slight increase in rain chances (especially Melbourne south). Drier
air quickly returns on Tuesday with high pressure building across
the southeast U.S. Gusty winds spill southward immediately behind
Monday`s front, reaching 20-30 mph at times Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Record Highs for Saturday-Sunday (18th-19th):

                April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    92 1967        92 1968
Leesburg         90 1990        92 2020
Sanford          94 1967        94 2020
Orlando          93 1922        94 1922
Melbourne        91 2015        93 2015
Vero Beach       92 2015        93 1969
Fort Pierce      94 2015        92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  66  88  65 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  90  68  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  84  69  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  84  68  86  69 /   0  10  10  20
LEE  90  67  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  90  67  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  91  69  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  84  67  87  68 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion