Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

876
FXUS62 KMLB 171853
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions this weekend with interior
  locations nearing record highs

- Cold front Sunday night into Monday brings windy conditions,
  cooler temperatures, and a limited rain chance

- Beach and boating conditions will deteriorate Sunday night into
  early next week as winds create rough surf and building seas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Current-Tonight... The Palm Beach Terminal Doppler Radar has shown
shallow shower activity across portions of Martin county this
afternoon. Otherwise, conditions remain dry across east central
Florida. Temperatures are observed ranging the low to mid 80s so far
today, on track to reach the upper 80s and near 90F across portions
of the interior. A surface ridge axis over the area will support
light and variable winds and the potential for patchy fog late
tonight into early Saturday morning. 12Z ensemble probabilities
currently suggest a 30-50% chance for fog development across
portions of the Orlando metro, Brevard, and Osceola counties.
Overnight low temperatures mostly fall into the low to mid 60s,
remaining a few degrees warmer along the immediate coast.

Saturday-Sunday... High pressure in place at the surface and aloft
will continue to drive the local weather pattern through much of
this weekend. Model sounding analysis indicates a layer of dry air
persisting above 700mb. A gradual moistening of the low level
profile below 700mb should support diurnal cu, but the layer should
remain too shallow for any confidence in mentionable precip chances.
The primary weather story going into the weekend will be well above
normal temperatures. Highs forecast in the low 90s across the
interior will near a few record values at some climate sites
Saturday with the best chance at Leesburg (90F, 1990). Development
of the east coast sea breeze should keep coastal counties
slightly cooler, ranging the mid to upper 80s. Upper level
moisture increases Sunday ahead of a cold front into early next
week. This should support increasing high cloud cover, with
interior temperatures slightly retreating into the upper 80s and a
few locations nearing 90F. Despite the slight decrease in
temperatures across the interior Sunday, high temperatures along
the coast are forecast to hold steady in the mid to upper 80s as
developing offshore flow delays the development of the east coast
sea breeze. Low temperatures mostly range the mid to upper 60s
each day.

Sunday Night-Thursday... High pressure breaks down aloft Sunday
evening into Sunday night as the next cold front approaches central
Florida. Gusty northeast winds spread the Volusia coast and through
the Orlando metro region early Monday behind the front, increasing
across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee into the afternoon. A broad
plume of moisture lingering in vicinity of the front Monday will
prompt the next best chance for mentionable rainfall, greatest to
the south of Orlando and Cape Canaveral (30-40%). Dry conditions
build again from Tuesday onward as the front stalls across the
Straits of Florida and high pressure builds over the region. Windy
and gusty conditions are forecast to persist into Tuesday,
especially along the Treasure Coast before a loosening pressure
gradient allows winds to gradually slacken Wednesday and into
Thursday. Temperatures fall slightly below normal through the
extended forecast period, beginning a gradual warming trend Thursday
into late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions through
much of the weekend. Conditions deteriorate late Sunday night and
into Monday as a cold front passes southward across the local
waters. Increasing northeast winds 25-30 kts spread the Volusia
waters early Monday, reaching the Treasure Coast waters into the
afternoon. Occasional gusts near Gale possible. Seas become
hazardous, building 8-11 ft Monday. Winds veer slightly east on
Tuesday, diminishing to around 20 kts across the Volusia waters and
remaining 20-25 kts south of the Cape. Onshore winds continue to
improve Wednesday becoming 10-15 kts north of the Cape and 15-20
south of the Cape. Seas subside 4-6 ft into mid week. Dry conditions
this weekend with scattered rain chances Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

With an axis of high pressure nearby, mostly VFR conds with light
winds becoming easterly in the afternoon with the seabreeze
especially coastal terminals. A weak disturbance near PBI is
producing a few showers invof SUA, but these should dissipate this
afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A period of warm and dry conditions continues into the weekend.
MinRH values fall near or slightly below critical thresholds over
interior east central Florida on Saturday. 40 to 55 percent (or
higher) Min RH values are forecast along the coast. Light and
variable winds overnight turn onshore Saturday afternoon, reaching
10 to 15 mph. Occasional gusts around 20 mph are possible,
particularly at the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves
inland. By and large, conditions will remain below Red Flag criteria.

The pattern begins to change late Sunday as the next cold front
approaches central Florida. A broad plume of frontal moisture will
bring brief increases in minRH values early next week before quickly
drying Tuesday into mid next week as high pressure rebuilds. Gusty
northeast winds spread east central Florida Monday behind the front,
remaining breezy into Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  66  91  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  68  85  69  86 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  66  85  67  86 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  65  92  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  66  91  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  66  86  67  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion