Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

843
FXUS62 KMLB 281913
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
313 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- A quick-moving cold front will bring strong, gusty winds,
  hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions, and
  increasing shower and storm chances to east central Florida
  through Sunday.

- A Wind Advisory continues across most of east central Florida
  today for winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph. The
  strongest winds are anticipated along the coast.

- Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are
  forecast due to the rapidly increasing winds and seas. Entering
  the ocean as either a swimmer or a mariner is strongly
  discouraged this weekend!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Current-Tonight... Clear skies and light winds allowed a sea breeze
to develop early this afternoon, initiating isolated storms along
the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Despite generally
quiet conditions early today, a cold front has quickly moved
across northeast Florida and into portions of the Florida
peninsula already. A surge of gusty north wind is lagging behind
the immediate front and ahead of a deck of building low stratus.
Wind gusts of 40 mph have been observed across portions of
northeast Florida today with similar conditions expected to spread
across portions of east central Florida late this afternoon and
into the evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through late
tonight across east central Florida (excluding Okeechobee),
continuing along the coast east of I-95 into Sunday. As northeast
winds increase and gradually shift east into tonight, rounds of
isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast.
Although heating and surface boundary interactions has allowed for
a few lightning strikes near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, the
overall threat for storms looks to remain isolated. Regardless,
quick moving showers will still be capable of gusts up to 50 mph.

Rapidly deteriorating beach conditions are expected as winds
increase, first along the Volusia coast. Seas building to 10-13 ft
across the nearshore Atlantic waters late this afternoon and into
tonight will begin to produce large breaking waves and rough surf at
area beaches, and minor beach erosion will be possible at times of
high tide. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents will also be
present.

Sunday... The front stalls over south Florida on Sunday. A tight
pressure gradient is maintained locally as high pressure slides
offshore the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast. East winds remain
breezy to windy, especially along the coast, and a Wind Advisory
will continue for all areas east of I-95 through 4PM Sunday. A
period of hazardous beach conditions also continues into Sunday, and
a High Surf Advisory remains in effect with large breaking waves of
7 to 12 ft within the surf zone. This could result in minor beach
erosion at times of high tide. Rough surf and a high risk of life-
threatening rip currents will also be present, and entering the
ocean is strongly discouraged.

Low to mid level moisture remains in place, greatest south of the
Cape in vicinity of the front. Low level cloud cover and overcast
conditions should generally persist through the day, and high
temperatures remain limited to the low to mid 70s. Rounds of
isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast with the
greatest coverage (40-50%) south of a line from Melbourne to Lake
Kissimmee. Instability and surface forcing remains limited and
lightning is generally not expected. Quick moving showers should
limit rainfall accumulations with new day precip totals largely less
than 0.20". Rounds of isolated to scattered showers (20-40%) look to
continue along the Treasure Coast and in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee
into Sunday night. Low temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s,
remaining slightly higher along portions of the coast in onshore
flow.

Monday-Friday (modified previous)... The stalled frontal boundary is
anticipated to wash out early next week, with an area of high
pressure forecast to build across the western Atlantic. The ridge
axis will remain north of east central Florida, causing winds to
remain onshore through much of next week. The pressure gradient will
loosen into next week, with winds falling to around 10 mph.
Enhancements each afternoon will be possible as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland. A plume of moisture from the
stalled boundary will remain in place across south Florida, and the
persistent onshore flow will help advect moisture towards east
central Florida through much of next week. Rain chances remain 30-
50% into Monday, falling to 20-30% each afternoon from Tuesday
onward as the rain becomes more driven by the sea breeze. Isolated
storm development cannot be ruled out, but confidence in this
remains low at this time. Any shower and/or storm activity that does
manage to develop is anticipated to diminish into the overnight
hours. Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through next
week, reaching above normal values once again nearly areawide by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A cold front is moving southward across central Florida this
afternoon. Rapidly deteriorating boating conditions are expected as
a surge of gusty winds spreads the local waters behind the front. A
Gale Warning is now in effect for the Volusia and Brevard waters as
sustained north-northeast winds increase to 30-34 kts late this
afternoon and evening with frequent higher gusts. The Gale Warning
later expands to include the Treasure Coast waters at 8PM. Winds
shift east overnight before starting a slow diminishing trend into
Sunday morning. Dangerous seas build 10-15 feet through tonight, and
Gale Warnings transition to Small Craft Advisories through late
Sunday morning as winds ease and seas become slow to subside through
early next week. Rounds of scattered onshore-moving showers and
isolated storms continue through at least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Cold front will continue to push southward through the area this
afternoon, with surge in N/NE winds, MVFR/low MVFR cigs and
increasing shower activity moving in behind the front. Lower cloud
deck is already nearing KDAB at 18Z and will continue to spread
southward through late afternoon. MVFR cigs may only make it as
far south as KMLB, with VFR cigs building in along the Treasure
Coast. N/NE winds will increase to 20-25 knots with gusts between
25-35 knots. Passing isolated to scattered showers may briefly
produce slightly higher gusts. Winds veer to the east-northeast
overnight, and remain gusty, with speeds closer to 12-16 knots
inland and remaining up to 17-22 knots along the coast with gusts
up to 25-30 knots. These gusty onshore winds will continue into
Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers onshore moving showers will continue
to be possible through Sunday. While cigs should improve to VFR
for most locations by late morning, this activity will still be
capable of producing brief IFR/MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  74  63  79 /  40  20  20  40
MCO  66  75  66  79 /  40  30  20  50
MLB  66  76  66  79 /  60  50  40  50
VRB  66  77  66  79 /  60  60  50  50
LEE  63  77  64  82 /  20  20  10  50
SFB  64  76  64  81 /  40  20  20  50
ORL  65  77  65  81 /  40  30  20  50
FPR  66  77  66  79 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-144-
     247-254-259-264-547.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-
     447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-347-447-647-
     747.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ154-159-164.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion