Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

653
FXUS62 KMLB 302355
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
755 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- HIGH risk for life-threatening rip currents at area beaches today!
  It is strongly discouraged to enter the dangerous surf!

- Very warm and mostly dry conditions close out the work-week. A few
  showers and maybe a lightning storm could develop north of Orlando
  this afternoon/evening, and again late Friday.

- Hot and windy on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Max
  temperatures near record in the low to mid 90s, including the
  coast. Frequent wind gusts 25 to 30+ mph by late morning and
  afternoon.

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase late Saturday into
  Sunday as a front slowly pushes through. There is potential for
  stronger storms and minor flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Current-Fri...Weak high pressure ridge axis across south FL slides
seaward Fri with the approach of the next low pressure system
developing across the northern Gulf. Generally dry for most thru the
period, but we do carry a small threat for ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers
and ISOLD lightning storms (20-30%) late afternoon/early eve periods
thru Fri. The primary concern continues to be the above normal temps
in the U80s-L90s. Generally offshore flow, but we will see a delayed
ECSB appearance each afternoon along the coast. The longer this
feature is delayed, the greater chances for soaring temps at the
coast. A Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will build thru Fri, affecting
those who are sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and
hydration.

At area beaches, a HIGH risk of rip currents exists, again, today.
Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs.
Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Confidence is low, but followed suit with surrounding offices and
added patchy fog potential in the grids/forecast (mainly interior)
for late overnight into early Fri morning. Will need to monitor for
high clouds which could put a damper on fog development. Min temps
Fri-Sat mornings in the 60s areawide, perhaps some L70s along the
immediate Space/Treasure coasts.

Sat-Sun...Above normal (near record) temperatures continue Sat as
WSW flow strengthens 15-20+ mph with frequent higher gusts (25-35
mph) ahead of the next cold front. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast through much of Sat before ISOLD to SCT rain (storm)
chances (20-50%) build southward through the Orlando Metro late in
the aftn/early eve. Rain chances gradually become more areawide Sat
night (40-80% - highest north) into Sun (30-80% - highest south) as
the front drops south. PWAT values will soar to 1.70-2.00" in
closest proximity to the boundary. Weak shortwave impulses embedded
in the near zonal flow aloft will aid convection.

A heavy rain threat may evolve late Sat into Sun and the Weather
Prediction Center keeps areas south of Orlando within a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sun. At present, primary storm
threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours - potentially leading to
minor flooding of low-lying and prone areas, esp those areas that
receive multiple rounds in a short period. The good news is that
storm steering flow (WSW) will be fairly quick at 30-40 mph,
however, repeated rounds or any training along the boundary could
increase rainfall totals quickly. A safe guess for rainfall totals
this far out could be for 0.5"-1.5" areawide with this system (Sat-
Sun night), but localized higher amounts, esp south of Orlando are
possible.

Highs widely in the L-M90s Sat (pre-frontal) and may need to go
higher than model guidance near the coast, as the ECSB is not
forecast to develop. Max temps cooler on Sun in the U70s for most,
perhaps M70s for coastal Volusia as cloud cover and rain chances
increase and the front moves across the area.

With the already very dry conditions across ECFL, hot temperatures,
low min RH and gusty winds on Sat will create heightened fire
sensitivity on this day.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified.

Mon-Wed...Elongated surface high pressure extends from the Gulf
Coast States across the Southeast U.S., while wedged between the
former quasi-stationary front over south FL/FL Straits, and another
frontal boundary strewn across the ERN CONUS. High pressure
gradually weakens into mid-week getting pulled seaward into the WRN
Atlc. Residual moisture from the nearly stalled front over south FL
keeps low afternoon rain/lightning storm chances (20-30%) in the
forecast, generally near Melbourne southward on Mon, then expanding
northward Tue/Wed (10-20%). Temps near seasonal Mon with afternoon
highs in the U70s-L80s, then quickly warming back up to the L-U80s
Tue and U80s-L90s Wed. Onshore (E/SE) winds become gusty in the
afternoons behind the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

High pressure across south FL will shift seaward on Fri. Favorable
boating conditions expected at least thru Fri afternoon as seas
remain 2-4 ft, then gradually build back to 3-5 ft Sat, 5-6 ft Sat
night, 5-7 ft offshore Sun-Sun night and gradually subsiding seas
continuing early next week. Seas locally higher invof of weekend
convection. Early day offshore flow gradually "backs" onshore near
the coast this afternoon - southerly elsewhere. Some late day and
evening convection (Volusia waters) may distort wind field early
this evening before reverting back to an offshore component
overnight areawide. Speeds generally AOB 15 kts, but could surge a
little higher briefly tonight over the Gulf Stream (south of the
Cape). Similar conditions for winds on Fri with another delayed sea
breeze at the coast. The offshore wind component continues Fri night
thru Sat (too strong for sea breeze this day).

Mostly dry, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms
(offshore-moving) mainly over the Volusia County waters late
today/evening, again on Fri, as a weak front remains draped across
north FL.

A stronger low pressure system will approach the area this weekend,
increasing SW/W winds and coverage of showers and storms, again,
fairly quick, offshore-moving variety. While seas are expected to
build slightly, wind speeds may increase 15-20 kts, at times esp
offshore, Fri overnight thru Sat night and into Sun. Latest guidance
increases wind speeds north of Sebastian Inlet Sat overnight into
early Sun 20-25 kts. Winds will continue to veer N/NE behind the
front Sat overnight into Sun, becoming more ERLY Mon/Tue with
diminishing speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A few showers/storms pushed through Volusia County and offshore
late in the afternoon. Some convection lingers across north
Florida this evening, but this activity should largely remain
north of KDAB as it shifts offshore. Some guidance is hinting at
areas of stratus and patchy fog late tonight through early Friday
morning (~9-13Z) that would be capable of producing tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions generally near to south of KMCO. However,
there is not enough agreement in the guidance at this time to
include in the TAFs.

Dry conditions are forecast to mostly prevail tonight into
tomorrow, but there will again be a slight chance (~20%) for
showers/storms near to north of KSFB Friday afternoon. For now
have just added VCSH at 18Z for KDAB.

Winds diminish tonight out of the W/SW and then increase to 6-9
knots tomorrow afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will be able
to form along the coast, switching winds to the E/SE around 8-12
knots around 17-18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Hot and dry conditions build through late week with low shower and
lightning storm chances, limited to areas generally north of Orlando
late today and again Friday. West-southwest flow remains less than
15 mph each afternoon, and this should be enough to limit the east
coast sea breeze`s development and inland progression. MinRH becomes
sensitive across portions of the interior each day into the weekend
with values falling 35-45%. Very Good to Excellent afternoon
dispersion is forecast through Saturday.

A cold front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much
of the area late Saturday through Sunday. West-southwest flow
increases to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph) on
Saturday ahead of the front which will greatly increase control
concerns. Lightning strikes late this weekend will be an additional
concern for new fire starts.

Widespread fog is not forecast, though patchy, locally dense, fog
may develop toward Lake Okee early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site   Apr 30     May 1      May 2
DAB    92 (1953)  94 (2002)  95 (1953)
LEE    95 (1991)  94 (2017)  95 (1990)
SFB    93 (1971)  95 (2017)  94 (2010)
MCO    95 (1971)  96 (1917)  97 (1906)
MLB    93 (1964)  94 (2002)  95 (2002)
VRB    91 (1975)  96 (1971)  94 (2002)
FPR    97 (1971)  93 (2002)  95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  87  68  92 /  20  20   0  30
MCO  69  93  69  93 /   0  10   0  20
MLB  68  88  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  67  89  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  69  91  69  90 /   0  20   0  40
SFB  68  92  69  93 /  10  10   0  30
ORL  70  92  70  92 /   0  10   0  30
FPR  66  89  67  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion