Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

981
FXUS62 KMLB 251118
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
618 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Fire danger will remain elevated through Thursday due to low RH
  values and an increase in south-southwest winds.

- After a chilly/frosty start to this morning, a warming trend
  then takes hold for the remainder of this week.

- Next chance for measurable rain and isolated storms returns
  later Friday into Saturday as a front approaches.

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Today-Thursday...A Frost Advisory continues for much of east central
Florida through 8 AM this morning as morning lows in the 30s and
light winds will lead to frost development. However, after this
chilly start to the day, a gradual warming trend will begin to take
hold as high pressure shifts offshore and winds switch to the south-
southwest. Afternoon highs will be closer to normal in the 70s
today, and then will be above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s
Thursday. The dry airmass will still lead to below normal min temps
tonight, in the 40s, but lows will then be near to slightly above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday night. Dry conditions will
prevail through tomorrow, but should begin to see an increase in
showers, mainly across the coastal waters into Thursday night.

Fire danger will remain elevated over the next couple days, as low
RH values persist and S/SW winds increase to around 10 mph today and
10-15 mph on Thursday. With winds switching to the S/SW, may see
some smoke from the large National Fire across South Florida lift
north/northeast into the area, making for hazy skies for some
locations.

Friday-Saturday...Next chance for rain will occur from Friday
through Saturday as a weakening cold front approaches and eventually
moves through central Florida into the weekend. Rain chances rise to
30-50% on Friday afternoon and then increase further to 60-80%
Friday night into Saturday. Thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially into Saturday afternoon when greatest instability is
forecast to exist across the area. Latest operational runs of the
GFS/ECMWF show greatest rainfall totals around 1-2 inches falling
across northern portions of east central Florida Friday night into
Saturday as front moves in and slows its southward progression.
However, ensemble guidance probabilities for rainfall amounts of 1
inch or greater remain at or below 10% across the area at this time.
Any rainfall would certainly be beneficial with the ongoing
drought, but there is still some uncertainty in how much precip we
will receive from this next system. Highs will continue to rise
into Friday, reaching the low to mid 80s, and will then drop to
the upper 70s to low 80s as cloud cover/rain chances increase.

Sunday-Tuesday...Front will shift south of the area into late
weekend, with onshore flow developing quickly behind the front
through early next week due to a strong area of high pressure well
north of the area. Low end rain chances, up to 20-30 percent will
persist, mainly due to periods of onshore moving showers across the
area. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to above normal
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Boating conditions become more favorable today and remain that way
for much of the rest of the week and into the weekend. High pressure
across the area shifts offshore into the Atlantic, with ridge axis
remaining near to south of the waters. This will keep winds
generally out of the south-southwest through at least Friday before
another front moves through central Florida this weekend, switching
winds to the north-northeast. Winds speeds largely remain around 10-
15 knots, with seas decreasing from 3-5 feet today to 4 feet or less
through the late week into the weekend. It will remain dry across
the waters through at least daytime Thursday, before rain chances
increase ahead and with the next passing front late in the week and
into the weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of showers
and storms, especially Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 612 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF
period. Light/VRB winds early this morning become SW 7-12 kts
after 15Z. A sea breeze will attempt to develop from KVRB-KSUA
between 18Z-23Z, though latest HRRR guidance is shifting towards
the boundary being pinned near to offshore the coast most of the
afternoon. Winds may flip-flop from SW-SE at 8-12 kts as the sea
breeze fights against the offshore flow. Winds then becoming
light SW-S/VRB at all terminals after 23Z, then pick back up to
7-12 kts again from the SW-S Thursday after 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

High pressure across Florida shifts eastward into the Atlantic
today, with ridge axis remaining near to south of the area through
late week. This switches winds to the south-southwest today and
Thursday. Wind speeds will increase to around 10 mph this afternoon,
but will be closer to 10-15 mph on Thursday. The southerly flow will
tend to lead to a gradual increase in moisture. However, very
sensitive fire weather conditions will continue today and tomorrow.
Critically low Min RH values ranging from 20-35% will exist across
much of the area from late this morning through early evening. Min
RH values are forecast to be a little higher but still close to
critical values on Thursday, ranging from 35-40%, especially across
the interior and toward the northern Brevard/Volusia coasts.
Dispersion values will range from Good to Very Good today and Good
to Excellent on Thursday. The slightly breezier conditions on
Thursday could lead to control problems.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  47  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  72  49  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  73  50  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
VRB  74  49  80  59 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  72  48  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  72  48  80  59 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  72  50  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  74  48  80  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-347-447-547-647.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion