Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

162
FXUS62 KMLB 052312
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
612 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Much colder tonight with lows in the 30s and wind chill values
  in the mid 20s to low 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect
  across most of east central Florida overnight and early Friday.

- Long duration of poor to hazardous boating conditions especially
  in the Gulf Stream.

- Low humidity will combine with gusty winds to produce very
  sensitive fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Thru Tonight...A strong cold front crossed central FL this
afternoon. Gusty W/NW winds will advect much colder and drier air
into the area allowing skies to clear and temperatures to fall
quickly with sunset. The gustiness will subside shortly after
sunset but a persistent 5-10 mph wind will produce wind chill
values dipping into the mid and upper 20s for much of the area
late tonight and early Fri. So the Cold Weather Advisory
previously issued for all EC FL (except coastal Martin) looks
solid. These conditions are not favorable for much frost but wind
protected areas will have the potential for patchy frost. HREF
probabilities for freezing temps are 40-50% across north Lake
county mainly in the Ocala Natl Forest, and it is only right at
sunrise so little duration is forecast. Bottom line is: spotty
freezing temps can be expected in the normally colder locations
north and west of Orlando.

Fri-Sun (modified)...A weak lobe of energy associated with
another strengthening mid- level trough across the northeastern US
will move towards the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night,
which will support a reinforcing cold front to cross east central
Florida. Across the northeastern US, the area of low pressure
associated with the mid- level trough is anticipated to shift
eastward from the Great Lakes region towards New England on Friday
and will then move offshore into Saturday. The cold front
associated with this system will slowly drift southwards across
the eastern US, passing many locations with little fanfare as it
weakens. By Saturday night into Sunday, it is forecast to approach
east central Florida, with the orientation of the front causing
it to act more like a backdoor front as it moves from the
northeast towards the southwest. By Sunday, ridging begins to
build as high pressure strengthens across east central Florida.

On Fri, breezy west winds 15-20 mph will gust up to 25 mph then
veer NW-N Sat behind the reinforcing frontal passage. Winds turn
onshore (NE-E) Sun with decreasing wind speeds. Cooler air
remains in place this weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s, except holding in the mid 60s along the Volusia coast. Cannot
rule out some patchy frost Sunday morning across north interior
sections but freezing temperatures are not forecast.

Mon-Thu...Benign weather conditions forecast as high pressure
remain in control of our weather with dry conditions and warming
temperatures. In fact, above normal temperatures are forecast
midweek with max temps near 80F on Thu. The primary concern will
be fire weather due to the persistent dryness but fortunately,
winds will be light, remaining below 15 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Hazardous boating conditions have developed behind a strong cold
front which will exit the local Atlc waters late this aftn.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect across all the waters tonight
for winds near 20 knots nearshore and near 25 knots offshore. Seas
will build quickly to 7-10 FT offshore this evening into the
overnight while seas will remain more suppressed closer to the
coast due to the offshore flow. Pressure gradient temporarily
relaxes Friday as deepening low pressure off the US east coast
pulls rapidly away. So winds will drop below SCA criteria
nearshore but only temporarily as another surge of NW winds
arrives Fri eve and overnight which will require the SCA to be
brought back into the nearshore waters. HREF shows a high prob
(75%) of wind gusts 40mph+ over the offshore waters Fri night.
Will handle this with "occasional gusts to Gale force" in the
coastal waters forecast. Prob of sustained Gale force winds are
virtually nonexistent.

Winds veer more northerly Sat with a gradual decrease in wind
speeds but boating conditions will be remain hazardous esp
offshore. The SCA will probably be allowed to expire Sat morning
for the nearshore but at least a Caution will be needed there.
Have extended the SCA for the offshore waters through Sat night as
seas remain 7-8 FT due to N/NE wind flow directly opposing the
Gulf Stream, keeping seas more developed. Further extension in
time of the SCA for the offshore waters looks likely as a NE wind
persists Sun. We finally lose the north wind component Sun
night/Mon and seas in the Gulf Steam should finally fall below 6
FT. Orientation of the ridge axis should produce a light NW flow
Tue with 2-3 FT seas nearshore and up to 5 FT offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 611 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

The cold front has pushed well south of the area early this
evening. Sky conditions have quickly improved with MClear skies
expected, though may have to monitor for a few clouds scraping the
coast near KDAB. Gusty WNW winds left behind the front will
remain elevated this evening, but gradually improve thru the
night. Winds may stay elevated a little longer along the Space &
Treasure coasts. Continued VFR into Fri, though W/WNW winds will
increase, once again, and expect breezy/gusty conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

On Friday, northwest winds will turn westerly in the afternoon with
gusts near 25 mph. Min RH values will fall to 25 to 35 percent. This
will produce a particularly sensitive fire weather day with near Red
Flag conditions. On Saturday, the wind flow becomes northwest to
north 10-15 mph except a little higher near the coast. The lowest RH
values will be around 30 percent located over the interior, holding
near 40 percent near the coast. Winds turn northeast Sunday and
decrease 5-10 mph. Dispersion values are forecast to be Very Good to
Excellent Friday and Very Good Saturday which may lead to fire
control problems.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  34  62  45  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  38  62  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  36  63  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  35  64  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  35  62  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  63  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  38  62  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  35  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion