Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

937
FXUS62 KMLB 210555
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1255 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions to linger through at least
  Wednesday morning

- Warming trend continues through late week and into next weekend,
  coastal showers increase from the south Wednesday night into
  Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Now-Tonight...Aside from a few high clouds overhead, marine
stratocumulus is moving ashore from Sebastian southward this
afternoon. Breezy conditions with wind gusts along the coast of
20-30 mph are ongoing as well. A tightened pressure gradient
surrounds an expansive high pressure system, currently over
central Appalachia. The high will slowly shift toward the Mid
Atlantic Coast overnight but help maintain dry conditions over our
area. After sunset, wind speeds are forecast to decrease inland
but will remain breezy to gusty along the coast. Temperatures
tonight are forecast to be about 10 to almost 15 degrees warmer in
spots, settling in the 40s and 50s before daybreak Wednesday (low
60s coastal Martin County). Unlike last night, there are no
headlines concerning cold temperatures, but wind chill values
could still drop into the upper 30s north of I-4...particularly
across Lake and inland Volusia counties. Some additional mid to
high level clouds may build in, particularly across the north.

Wednesday-Friday...The center of the high will shift offshore
through the day Wednesday, allowing our surface winds to turn more
onshore (easterly). Moisture is slow to return to the area
overall, and a stout mid level dry slot will remain through at
least Thursday. However, models show an increase in moisture
below 825mb Wednesday night and Thursday, coincident with light
QPF reaching southern portions of the Treasure Coast. This is in
line with a 15-25% chance of shower from Melbourne Beach south to
Jupiter Inlet, prior to sunrise Thursday. Isolated coastal showers
remain possible through the day Thursday, perhaps staying more
offshore Thursday night, then returning along much of the ECFL
coast on Friday. A weak front or two may become situated over or
just north of the Florida Peninsula later in the week, but any
showers will remain shallow and weakly forced. Expect a mix of sun
and clouds with Thursday favoring more clouds than sun. The spread
in temps and dew points grows Friday as the entire column warms,
allowing for a bit more sunshine. Highs Wednesday in the low to
mid 70s trend warmer each day, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s
by Friday. Overnight lows follow the same trend, starting in the
50s to mid 60s Wednesday night and warming a bit more each night
(upper 50s to upper 60s by Friday night). With low rain chances
focused along the coast mid to late week, QPF looks to remain
light (a few hundredths to 0.15").

Saturday-Monday (modified)...An approaching cold front will move
slowly towards east central Florida this weekend and into early
next week, with little movement caused by a lack of mid and upper
level support. Guidance continues to lack a single solution with
regard to timing the front`s passage through east central
Florida, but the latest guidance continues to trend later. It is
now looking like Monday or even Tuesday when we see the front push
south of the area. As a result, Saturday and Sunday will remain on
the drier side with rain chances only around 15-20% at the coast
Saturday and 20-30% across northern portions of the area on
Sunday. The slower progression of the front means more time spent
in the warm sector. Thus, two days of above normal temperatures
(perhaps near records in a few spots) are forecast this weekend.
By Monday, temperatures begin to slowly decrease as cloud
cover increases and the front approaches east central Florida. A
return of colder temperatures is possible into Sunday night, but
particularly Monday night as the front moves south through the
area. With some models more progressive and others holding the
front back longer, there are sizable differences in QPF,
especially across northern and coastal areas. Any measurable rain
will be a welcome sight with drought conditions continuing to
expand across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Hazardous conditions are in place across the local Atlantic this
afternoon with freshening northeast winds (gusting around 25 kt).
Seas are slow to respond but will continue to build 5-7 ft (up to
8 ft in the Gulf Stream). Gradually improving conditions from
north to south are forecast overnight into Wednesday, though poor
conditions are likely to remain over northern reaches of the
waters through tomorrow morning. Wind speeds decrease further
Thursday and Friday, turning more onshore. Seas could remain up to
6 ft through Thursday offshore, but generally return to 3-5 ft by
Wednesday evening/night. Onshore-moving showers are possible
through late week and into the first part of the weekend. A
lightning storm cannot be ruled out Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1244 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. Winds become increasingly ENE through
around 18Z, before then backing NNE again into the evening and
overnight hours. Winds around 10-12 kts through much of the
period, with gusts near 20 kts, especially along the coast south
of Cape Canaveral.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  56  74  58 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  73  58  77  59 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  73  60  76  62 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  74  60  77  62 /   0  20  30  20
LEE  72  54  76  56 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  73  55  77  58 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  73  57  77  59 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  74  60  77  61 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ552-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion