Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

901
FXUS62 KMLB 180506
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1206 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 838 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- NEW: Wind ADVISORY from late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
  Peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph are expected as a sharp cold
  front passes through east central Florida. There is a low (10%)
  chance of wind gusts to around 50 mph. Residents should ensure
  lightweight outdoor items are properly secured.

- Temperatures crash into the upper 40s to the 50s behind the cold
  front on Sunday afternoon, especially along I-4. A Freeze Watch
  has been issued for portions of east central Florida late
  Sunday night into early Monday morning. Cold Weather Advisories
  will likely be needed as well on Sunday night.

- High pressure returns to the area behind the front and
  temperatures warm through mid-week. Scattered showers return on
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE... (Sunday Impacts)
Issued at 838 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Bottom line up front: those with outdoor plans on Sunday will
experience a variety of weather. Loose objects will need to be
properly secured as unusually gusty winds are forecast.

After a quick analysis of the evening guidance suite, wanted to
update our forecast and enhance messaging for weather impacts on
Sunday. A cold front is sharpening across the Deep South this
evening, moving slowly as it awaits a powerful PV anomaly across
the Red River Valley (TX/OK). This shortwave is forecast to become
neutral or negatively-tilted by dawn across the lower Mississippi
Valley as it rounds the base of a deep longwave trough over the
Eastern U.S. This will quickly tighten the baroclinic zone from
the northern Gulf to offshore of South Carolina over the next 12
hours.

The surface cold front should progress into Central Florida by
late morning, reaching Orlando by around midday before exiting the
Treasure Coast late in the afternoon. It is likely to feature one
of the more impressive temperature discontinuities that we have
seen in recent history down here, as highs reach the low 80s along
the coast from Melbourne southward. Meanwhile, temps behind the
front will likely tumble into the upper 40s by early afternoon
near and northwest of Orlando. Those areas basking in the 70s and
80s will find their temperatures crashing by more than 20 degrees
once the front passes by.

In the boundary layer, an impressive mass response is expected,
with a leading low-level jet segment of 35-40 KT ahead of the
front, followed by a 30-40 KT post-frontal wind surge driven by
rapid pressure (isallobaric) rises. This prompted the issuance of
a Wind ADVISORY, starting around Greater Orlando and Daytona
Beach from mid-morning to mid-afternoon before expanding to
include the Space and Treasure Coasts through the afternoon and
early evening. Surface wind gusts from 35-45 mph are forecast,
with a 60% or greater probability of occurrence within the
advisory area. There is also a roughly 10% chance of a peak wind
gust to around 50 mph.

Scattered rain is likely to occur with the front, especially near
and north of I-4. Rain chances quickly decrease as one travels
southward from there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Current-Tonight... A cold front is analyzed across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend region this afternoon. Cloud cover will
continue to build across the region this evening as the front
approaches northeast and central Florida. Increasing cloud cover
combined with light southerly flow should keep temperatures warmer
overnight, with lows in the 50s. Mostly dry through the overnight
with isolated showers beginning to approach Lake and Volusia county
near sunrise, ahead of the front.

Sunday-Monday... A mid/upper level trough swings across the eastern
U.S. and through Florida on Sunday. A cold front advances ahead of
the feature aloft as a surface low lifts across the western
Atlantic. Models continue to show better agreement in precip chances
along and ahead of the front with the best shower chances
(50-60%) near, north, and west of I-4. Low instability and a layer
of dry air in the low levels should limit any lightning chances.
Southwest winds ahead of the front shift northwest as the front
passes late morning and into the afternoon. High res and global
guidance has shown a noticeable wind surge along and behind the
front with 925mb winds modeled around 35-40 kts. At the surface
this could translate to a period of widespread gusts 25-35 mph
with occasional gusts up to 50 mph possible. The wind surge is
forecast to remain brief, limiting the need for a Wind Advisory at
this time. However, a few gusty wind SPS products could be needed
by late Sunday morning and into the afternoon. As northerly winds
increase, a much colder and drier airmass will be advected across
the region. While areas of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast
could see highs in the mid to upper 70s with a later frontal
passage, areas across Lake and Volusia will be limited to highs in
the upper 50s and lower 60s early in the day before temperatures
fall through the afternoon. By early Monday morning, lows are
forecast in the low to mid 30s across much of east central
Florida. A Freeze Watch remains in effect on Monday morning for
Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties where NBM
probabilities suggest moderate to high confidence for temperatures
to reach freezing across portions of these counties. Although the
Freeze Watch covers all of Orange and Osceola counties, freezing
temperatures are less likely (only 10-30%) around major urban
areas including Orlando and Kissimmee. Continued north winds will
drop wind chill values into the mid to upper 20s for much of east
central Florida, and Cold Weather Advisories will likely be
considered for Monday morning. The lightest winds are forecast in
vicinity of Lake George where areas of frost are forecast.
Otherwise, higher winds (5-10 mph) should keep frost widely
patchy. Drier air and building high pressure will keep conditions
mostly sunny on Monday, but temperatures are expected to hold
below 60 for areas near and north of the Orlando metro. Further
south, highs struggle into the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure across the southeast U.S.
shifts offshore into midweek. As the high retreats, a weak inverted
surface trough develops offshore the Florida Atlantic coast ahead of
a larger frontal boundary sweeping offshore the eastern U.S. coast.
Dry conditions persist through Wednesday with a chance for showers
(30-50%) and storms returning to the forecast on Thursday. Low
temperatures hold below normal Tuesday (mid30s-mid40s), continuing a
warming trend into Wednesday (low40s-low50s). Patchy frost will
remain possible for areas north and west of I-4 Tuesday morning.
High temperatures trend into the 70s by Wednesday and into late
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A short period of favorable boating conditions continues today as
high pressure gradually retreats seaward. A strong cold front
approaches the area early Sunday morning, passing the local Atlantic
waters into the afternoon. Boating conditions rapidly deteriorate
behind the front as offshore winds shift north, increasing to 25-30
kts, and a brief period of occasional gale force gusts will be
possible. Seas build 6-8 ft into Sunday night. Small Craft
Advisories will take effect Sunday at 10AM from Flagler Beach to
Sebastian Inlet, extending to include the Treasure Coast waters at
1PM. North winds subside to 15-20 kts through the evening while
hazardous seas linger across the Gulf Stream, gradually improving
Monday. A surface trough develops over the waters into mid week,
maintaining and extended period of poor conditions. Scattered rain
chances are forecast with the front on Sunday, drying behind the
front. Scattered to numerous showers return again Thursday into
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

MCO IMPACTS:
- Powerful cold front still scheduled to arrive around 18/17Z with
  abruptly stronger northwesterly wind gusts. 68-80% chance of
  wind gusts >= 30 KT.

- Brief CIG reductions and showers along and just behind the front
  on Sun midday-early afternoon.

CROSSWIND POTENTIAL:
- Along the front on Sun early afternoon...MCO 18/36 & 17/35:
  15-20 KT; DAB 07/25: 20-28 KT

Generally VFR overnight...dry...with winds light/variable. Will
monitor for localized patchy fog along the Treasure Coast
terminals. Focus turns to the strong cold front arriving from NW
to SE on Sun late morning - mid afternoon. Sudden wind shifts
from SW to NW are anticipated as the front passes. In addition,
peak gusts from 30-35 KT appear likely (~ 60% +) with localized
gusts to 40-45 KT a lower, but non-zero probability. Guidance
temporarily restricts CIGs to MVFR or even IFR along and just
behind the front. Clouds scatter and gusts quickly decrease Sun
evening as the front sweeps offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central
Florida on Sunday, and a dry, cold air mass will settle across the
area behind it. This drier air mass is anticipated to result in
sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values are forecast to
fall below 35% on Monday across portions of the interior on Monday
afternoon and west of the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. North winds
increase to around 10 mph each day, remaining shy of critical
thresholds at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  33  56  39 /  70   0   0   0
MCO  73  35  58  40 /  50   0   0   0
MLB  79  37  61  45 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  81  39  63  46 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  65  32  57  35 /  70   0   0   0
SFB  69  33  58  37 /  60   0   0   0
ORL  71  35  58  39 /  60   0   0   0
FPR  81  39  64  45 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-141-144.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     FLZ058-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion