National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
564 FXUS62 KMLB 311045 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 An anomalous trough over the eastern CONUS persists, maintaining generally westerly flow aloft across the state. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture remains plentiful to the south of this boundary, with GOES derived precipitable water indicating 1.9 - 2.1" across the peninsula (between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year). Some subtle changes to the local pattern are anticipated today as shortwave energy aloft induces weak low pressure over the Atlantic. Developing north/northeast flow on the lows` backside will act to push the stalled front a bit further south. Meanwhile, continued west winds aloft will favor the eastern half of the peninsula for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Convective allowing models are offering some hints into storm evolution today, though uncertainty is higher than usual given the anomalous pattern. Guidance suggests initial scattered nocturnal development over the eastern Gulf will move onshore the Nature Coast later this morning. From there, activity is expected to translate toward central and southern portions of the forecast area (from about Kissimmee to Melbourne south), increasing in coverage as it does so. Across northern areas, onshore flow developing within north to northeast surface flow should trigger scattered showers and storms separately. Attempted to show a slight variation to the PoP distribution today with 55 - 60% across the north, increasing to 70% across southern areas. As activity pushes offshore the Treasure Coast this evening, we`ll need to be on the lookout for onshore-moving showers and isolated storms from around Cape Canaveral northward overnight. Monday...The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further south over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Tuesday-Saturday...Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today...A weak surface boundary will settle southward over the local waters today, inducing north to northeast flow over the Volusia waters. Here, a small swell of of up to 3 - 4 feet will develop toward sunset. Mariners should be alert for thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, with a better chance for offshore-movings storms south of Cape Canaveral. Monday-Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia). Conditions improve some Wednesday as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Weak frontal boundary across the area continues to pull deep moisture into central FL. Potential for morning showers across the I-4 corridor pushing in from the west. For this, we continue to carry VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM around 14Z. With predominant WRLY flow expect additional activity across WCFL to spread eastward this aftn, with VCTS prevailing by around 17-18Z. With increasing confidence for above normal PoPs, TEMPOs included at most sites. An overall unsettled weather pattern may keep SHRA/TSRA into the evening hours and additional TEMPOs may be necessary. Continued mainly VFR, with tempo MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Light winds will become NWRLY this morning as trough slides southward. Winds continue to veer N/NE (aftn-early eve) from near KMLB-KISM northward. Will need to monitor for "low-topped" showery precip along the coast this evening (perhaps overnight). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 75 85 75 / 60 50 70 50 MCO 90 75 87 74 / 60 40 60 20 MLB 89 75 87 76 / 60 50 70 40 VRB 90 72 88 75 / 70 60 70 40 LEE 86 74 87 73 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 88 74 87 74 / 60 40 70 30 ORL 89 74 87 75 / 60 40 60 20 FPR 91 71 88 73 / 70 60 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ulrich AVIATION...Sedlock
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Today![]() Slight Chance T-storms then T-storms Likely |
Tonight![]() Chance T-storms then Slight Chance T-storms |
Labor Day ![]() Chance T-storms then T-storms |
Monday Night ![]() T-storms then Showers Likely |
Tuesday![]() Chance T-storms then T-storms |
Hi 90 °F | Lo 79 °F | Hi 88 °F | Lo 80 °F | Hi 88 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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