Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

862
FXUS62 KMLB 090720
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Flooding potential: Rounds of heavy downpours will produce
  localized up to 3 inches of additional rainfall today which
  could cause flooding of urban and poorly-drained areas. The
  focus area is Brevard and Osceola counties southward.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties for
  ENE wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph through the day. Breezy/gusty
  conditions will occur over the interior as well. Breezy
  conditions are forecast through late week.

- Dangerous beach and boating conditions persist, including the
  risk for numerous life-threatening rip currents and rough surf.
  Minor beach erosion during times of high tide is possible.

- Drier conditions gradually return Friday into the weekend as a
  warming trend begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Today-Friday...The mid level trough axis slides east of FL today,
but very stout and moist onshore flow will continue producing
bands of showers pushing onshore. Rain chances remain high for one
more day. Convection-allowing models suggest the focus for
additional heavy rain will be from Brevard and Osceola counties
southward with locally up to 3" of additional rainfall is
possible. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Late in the day
and into tonight, drier air starts to work south and cut into
shower development (especially after sunset). Onshore pressure
gradient will support strong wind gusts around 35 mph at the coast
so have extended the Wind Advisory there through the day. Will be
breezy/gusty inland as well. Rough, high surf continues at the
beaches with breaking waves of 8-12 ft so entering the water
remains highly discouraged.

Drier air overspreads the area Fri limiting shower chances to the
Treasure coast. The pressure gradient loosens some allowing winds
to decrease but it will remain breezy/gusty but no Wind
Advisories will be needed. Seasonably high temperatures in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with more sun than most have been
experiencing lately. Surf conditions will remain dangerous with a
HIGH risk of rip currents continuing at area beaches.

Sat-Thu...Mid level ridge builds over the area this weekend and
persists through mid week resulting in dry conditions and a
warming trend. Onshore winds will remain gusty this weekend at
20-25 mph areawide then decrease next week as low level ridge axis
settles over FL. Max temps will warm a degree or two each day,
starting with seasonable temps in the upper 70s coast/lower 80s
inland on Sat. By Wed and Thu, upper 80s are forecast over the
interior (Lake county) and low 80s coast. Don`t be caught off
guard by a return to more inviting weather at the beaches! A HIGH
risk of rip currents has been extended through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Dangerous conditions continue to exist over the entire local
Atlantic waters. A tight pressure gradient along the eastern
seaboard is causing frequent gale-force gusts and fully developed
seas. The gale-force gusts will begin to decrease today, but
expect rough seas to persist. From Friday onward, fresh to strong
onshore breezes will continue as the high anchors over the
Appalachians. This will prolong poor to hazardous boating
conditions through much of the weekend.

The Gale Warning will transition to a Small Craft Adv later this
morning and these Advisories will be needed for at least 2-3 days
as winds (and especially seas) will be slow to decrease/subside.
The Advisory for nearshore Volusia will be able to be lowered to a
Caution, probably Sat morning. Seas 10-15 ft by this afternoon
with winds ENE 20-25 kt. By Sunday, E winds 15-20 knots across the
north and near 20 knots south waters and seas 5-8 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Onshore moving SHRA, MVFR CIGs, and breezy/gusty conditions will
continue through most of the TAF period. Highest chances for +SHRA
and possibly TSRA through the overnight and early morning from
KTIX-KMLB extending WSW inland towards and south of KMCO/KISM,
with the greatest impacts at the coast. After 15Z, confidence
where/when bands of SHRA will set up decreases, and chances
broadly increase to 50-70% for most of ECFL, so will have to
continue playing TEMPOs one package at a time. ENE winds gusting
to 25 kts inland and 30 kts along the coast tonight, picking back
up to 30-35 kts again in the afternoon. Occasionally higher gusts
in squalls. Rain chances finally begin to decrease later this
evening, and winds begin to subside Thursday night, but gusty
conditions could linger along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  63  77  63 /  60  10  10   0
MCO  74  63  79  63 /  70  10  10   0
MLB  76  66  77  66 /  70  30  10  10
VRB  77  66  79  65 /  70  30  10  10
LEE  77  61  81  61 /  50   0   0   0
SFB  76  62  80  61 /  60  10  10   0
ORL  75  63  80  63 /  60  10  10   0
FPR  77  65  79  64 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ041-247-
     254-259-264-547.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552-555-570-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion