Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

644
FXUS62 KMLB 051419
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
919 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Poor boating conditions offshore and a High Risk of rip
  currents at area beaches will persist through late week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop over the
  Atlantic and push inland most afternoons through early next
  week. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal over the next several
  days, with high temps reaching the mid to upper 80s across the
  interior. These will be near record values for inland sites this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Only made minor changes to the forecast for the remainder of
today into this evening. Focused rain chances around 20-30%,
mostly west of I-95 as a moderate southeast flow should shift the
east coast sea breeze inland quick enough for any isolated to
scattered shower development to remain across the interior.
Overall moisture is still somewhat limited, with PW values only
increasing to around 1.2-1.3 inches. Colder temps aloft and
surface based CAPE increasing to or just above 1000 J/kg may still
lead to a few lighting storms this afternoon. However, greatest
potential for storm development and the potential for a stronger
storm or two does look to remain focused across the western side
of the FL peninsula later today, where sea breeze collisions are
more likely.

Warmer than normal conditions will continue today, with highs in
the upper 70s/low 80s along the coast and low to mid 80s across
the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Today-Saturday... A surface ridge axis remains north of central
Florida, keeping east-southeast flow in place locally. A diffuse
east coast sea breeze will steadily move inland each day prompting
isolated to scattered showers (20-40%), particularly across the
interior. Slightly higher afternoon rain chances exist Saturday (40-
50%) with an increase in moisture. Surface heating and sea
breeze/lake breeze interactions along with cold temperatures aloft
should be supportive for a few lighting strikes each afternoon.
However, model sounding profiles suggest a limited environment for
more organized convection due to weak shear and drier mid levels.
High temperatures in the low 80s across the coastal counties will
reach the mid 80s across the interior today. Slightly warmer
Friday and Saturday with low 80s along the coast and mid to upper
80s inland. Low temperatures hold mostly in the mid 60s areawide.

Continuing to monitor the potential for patchy fog early this
morning, but low level winds may be just strong enough to inhibit
development. Confidence in fog formation currently remains low
with HREF probabilities ~10-30% for areas near and north of I-4.
NBM probabilities may suggest slightly better chances for fog
Friday and Saturday mornings, and will monitor as high-res models
extend further in time.

A high risk of rip currents, along with rough surf, exists at all
east central Florida beaches. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach
patrol flags, and signs. Entering the chilly surf is not advised!

Sunday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure is nudged slightly further
into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves across the Great
Lakes and offshore the northeast U.S. coast. Winds shift more out
of the southeast early next week, but remain east-southeast along
the Treasure Coast, further south of the ridge axis. Mostly
isolated showers are forecast Sunday, primarily driven by the east
coast sea breeze and surface heating. A slightly drier airmass
advects across east central Florida Monday and Tuesday with enough
agreement in global ensembles to keep PoPs below 15% for most of
the forecast area. A gradual warming trend will continue with low
80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each
afternoon. Low temperatures are mostly forecast in the mid 60s,
although becoming a little cooler across rural locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

A surface ridge axis remains north of the local waters, keeping
east-southeast flow in place. Winds around 10-15 kts increase to
15-20 kts offshore each night through late week. Boating
conditions will remain poor offshore through early Friday as seas
up to 6 ft gradually subside. Otherwise, seas subside 3-5 ft into
early next week. Rounds of isolated to scattered showers and
occasional lightning storms are forecast through Sunday before a
slightly drier airmass spreads over the waters next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Biggest challenge remains fog/stratus development early in the
period. 925 winds remain a bit stronger this morning and suspect
more localized fog/stratus, if any forms at all. We continue to
monitor and address prevailing/TEMPOs as appropriate. Greatest
threat continues to be inland from the coast and across the I-4
corridor. Light to moderate easterly flow at the surface continues
this morning and expect ESE/SE winds 7-14 kts during the day with
some higher gusts, esp along the coast. Low threat for ISOLD-WDLY
SCT aftn/early evening convection - highest chances over the
interior later in the day. Brief MVFR in convection. Otherwise,
generally VFR through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  63  82  64 /  10  10  20  10
MCO  84  67  85  67 /  30  10  30  10
MLB  80  66  81  66 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  81  66  82  66 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  86  65  87  66 /  30  30  40  10
SFB  85  65  86  66 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  84  67  86  67 /  30  10  30  10
FPR  81  65  82  66 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion