Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

302
FXUS62 KMLB 220605
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Nice weather is
  deceiving, please remain out of the surf today.

- While most places will remain dry, there is a 30-50% chance for
  showers and isolated storms along the Treasure Coast today.
  There is also a very low risk for heavy downpours, particularly
  on the coast south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Steadily warmer each day through the weekend, with highs
  approaching records by Sunday. Temperatures dip below normal
  behind a cold front next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida rests beneath a large axis of high pressure, extending from
offshore of Nova Scotia to the eastern Gulf. This is delivering
modified mT air to the peninsula on northeasterly (onshore)
winds. A broad mid-level ridge sprawls from east of Bermuda to the
NW Caribbean Sea, with a weakening shortwave tucked in the mean
southwesterly flow aloft. This feature is on track to pass north
of Central Florida over the next 24 hours, interacting with above-
normal moisture over the southern half of the state and Bahamas.

The ensemble suite is coming into better agreement on the
evolution of an anomalous and active setup across CONUS as we
finish out this week. Courtesy of a -AO/-NAO, the polar vortex is
displaced on our side of the hemisphere, sitting south of Hudson
Bay this morning. Multiple jet streaks are riding southward in
the meridional flow from the high-latitude Arctic to the Northern
Rockies. Over the next few days, a preponderance of guidance
phases the northern stream with ejecting subtropical energy from
offshore of California.

A sharpening baroclinic zone forms across the Deep South this
weekend, evidenced by the nearly 70-degree temperature delta
forecast between South Florida and St Louis, MO on Sunday
afternoon. In this regime, surface cyclogenesis will readily
occur. This is the feature likely to cause a well-advertised,
significant, and multi-faceted winter storm over the Mid-South,
Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

In response to this, and immediately to its south, near to above-
normal H5 heights are expected to build over Florida as the near-
surface ridge weakens and pushes slowly southward. As winds turn
more out of the south, warm advection will amplify, pumping above-
normal temperatures over the state this weekend. As the phased
180+kt jet streak moves east of our longitude, it should force a
cold front through the Florida Peninsula on Monday. The setup
currently appears unfavorable for heavy rainfall. Cold advection
settles over the area behind its passage.

Behind the front comes a steady decline in forecast confidence. The
-AO pattern doesn`t appear to relent, keeping the polar vortex
displaced over Canada. Additional perturbations are expected to drop
out of the Arctic and into the Northern U.S. Their timing and
trajectories will determine the extent of cold weather impacts
locally. A stepwise decrease in temperatures is favored, with
additional cold fronts potentially reaching Florida by the middle of
next week and/or the following weekend. If a major cold-air outbreak
were to occur over the peninsula, the cold fronts later next week or
weekend pose the greatest concern.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Much of the district should remain rain-free on this Thursday. We
are watching the interaction of a weak disturbance and increased
moisture over the Treasure Coast for shower development. Slow-moving
showers have a low (< 10%) chance of dropping up to around 1" of
rain today along the coast south of Fort Pierce. Expected amounts
are lighter (0.05-0.25"), with overall rain chances ranging from
20-30% south of Cape Canaveral to as high as 50% along the Martin
Co coast. Lightning potential is 20% or less on the Treasure Coast
through today. A few of these showers may linger into tonight at
the immediate coast (20%).

Temperatures rise back to slightly above normal today, ranging
through the 70s. Overnight lows remain warmest at the coast,
but above normal all areas.

Friday - Weekend...

The Sunshine State is expected to stay on the southern side of a
very active winter storm track from Texas to the Carolinas and
points northward. With the sharpening front and eventual area
of low pressure forming to our northwest, winds slowly turn from
easterly to southerly between Friday and Sunday. This will carry
progressively warmer air to our area through the weekend.

Upper 70s to low 80s are forecast on Friday and Saturday before we
jump into the mid (even upper) 80s on Sunday. Sunday`s forecast
high temperatures are already within a degree of tying the daily
record at multiple sites, including Orlando.

By and large, quite a bit of dry time is forecast. We will hang
onto a small shower chance along the Treasure Coast on Friday and
Saturday, where moisture is somewhat greater.

Next Week...

What goes up must come down, especially given the pattern that is
setting up over N America. A cold front should be on our doorstep
Monday morning, sliding southward through the day. As it does,
temperatures will vary widely from north to south, potentially even
falling through the afternoon over portions of Central Florida.
Timing is still a bit in question, with statistical guidance still
showing sizable spread. The interquartile range for high temps is 10
degrees or greater (mid 60s to mid 70s) across the I-4 corridor. The
chance for wetting rain remains low as the front passes, with mainly
dry conditions forecast thereafter.

Cooler air rushes in here on Monday night, leading to a 30-60%
chance of temps dropping to 40 deg F or less over the interior on
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. A second front is currently favored
to reach Florida by late Wednesday or Thursday, with a potentially
stronger signal (disturbance or front) in the ensemble means next
weekend.

As mentioned in the overview, the overall pattern over N America
from the waning days of January and into early February has some
ingredients that resemble those from past cold air outbreaks and
freezes. This does not mean that everything will line up "perfectly"
for an impactful blast of Arctic cold. This does tell us that we
should monitor guidance trends very closely over the next 10-14
days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A sprawling high pressure axis from the Florida Panhandle to the
northwest Atlantic will keep moderate onshore breezes over the local
waters over the next couple days. This will cause occasionally
poor boating conditions, especially over the Gulf Stream. Expect
scattered showers and isolated storms through at least Friday. The
high weakens this weekend as it shifts southward. On Sunday,
low pressure gathers north of Florida, turning winds out of the
south. Its cold front should pass over the waters on Monday,
with a surge of fresh to strong northwest winds building seas
again early next week.

NE winds 5-12 kt through Friday, becoming east on Saturday
then south up to around 10-17 kt on Sunday. Seas 4-6 ft today,
subsiding to 3-5 ft Friday and Saturday. Seas build on Sunday,
4-5 ft nearshore and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 105 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light showers along the Treasure Coast overnight will produce brief
MVFR CIGs through sunrise. However, the bouncy nature of these CIGs
should keep VFR prevailing. VCSH will continue through much of
Thursday for VRB/FPR/SUA, otherwise dry conditions continue. Light
northerly winds overnight will increase to around 8-12 kts after 15Z
and become NE. Light, generally northerly winds then return this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  58  77  59 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  77  58  81  61 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  74  61  77  61 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  76  62  79  62 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  77  55  80  58 /  10   0  10   0
SFB  77  57  81  59 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  77  58  81  61 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  77  61  80  61 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion