Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

396
FXUS62 KMLB 032030
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for north Lake and interior
  Volusia counties.

- Increased southwest flow and low RH will produce a fire sensitive
  day Wednesday across interior sections and Volusia county.

- A good chance for showers late Wednesday night into Thursday
  followed by below normal temperatures into late week; however,
  a little warmer this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tonight...Not as cold as previous nights but still chilly with
light winds and mostly clear skies. Some stratocu will affect the
Treasure coast but dry conditions will prevail. Although freezing
temperatures are not forecast, min temps in the low to mid 30s
will combine with rising dewpoints to produce areas of frost
across north Lake and interior Volusia. As a result, a Frost
Advisory has been posted there. More patchy frost will occur over
NW Orange, western Seminole, coastal Volusia and rural areas of
Osceola and Okeechobee. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight
into early Wednesday morning, but will still be chilly, with lows
in the upper 30s to low 40s for many locations.

Wed-Fri...Seasonable temperatures finally return Wed with max
temps in the low to mid 70s. However, this will be short-lived as
another cold front moves through the area early Thursday. Ahead
of and along the front, scattered to numerous showers will
develop late Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs increasing
60-70% across the north and 50% south. While any rainfall will
be welcome, rainfall totals look meager, with most likely amounts
around a quarter of an inch or less. Some lucky locations may
receive up to one half inch. Drier and colder conditions then
return behind the front but not as cold as the recent outbreak (or
last as long). Min temps are currently forecast to fall to the
mid to upper 30s for much of the area Thursday night into Friday
morning, with a 30-50% chance for freezing temperatures NW of I-4
and across rural inland areas south of Orlando. Apparent temps
(wind chills) will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temps are
forecast to remain below normal Friday in the 60s but with full
sun. Mins Friday night will recover slightly, holding in the low
to mid 40s.

Sat-Mon (modified)...Another front moves through the area early
into the weekend, but this boundary looks to remain dry and will
be much weaker. Highs currently forecast to be closer to normal,
in the 70s, with overnight lows still below normal, in the 40s,
through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tonight/Wed...High pressure will push east over the Atlc waters
and wind flow will develop a south then southwest component 10
knots or less. Will start the forecast with a Caution headline
over the southern waters Gulf Stream but seas will subside below 6
ft later this evening. The long period swell will also gradually
decrease/shorten in height/period. On Wed, light winds in vicinity
of the trailing ridge axis will turn onshore (SE) near the coast
behind a sea breeze up to 10 knots. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 4 ft
offshore primarily from the decaying NE swell.

Thu-Sun...The next cold front crosses the area early Thu and
brings a period of showers late Wed night into Thu. Boating
conditions will deteriorate once again behind the front during Thu
as gusty W/NW winds 20-25 knots offshore, 15-20 knots nearshore.
Seas 3-4 ft nearshore due to the offshore flow but build to 7 ft
Thu aftn offshore, with fully developed seas of 8-9 ft Thu night.
Boating conditions then remain poor to hazardous Friday into
Saturday as another front sweeps through Fri night and brings
another similar surge of W/NW wind. Wind and wave conditions
improve for Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR and dry through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
across the interior this afternoon will continue through tonight
Northeast winds at 5-8 KT along the coast this afternoon will
then become light and variable overnight. Winds then turn south
to southwest and increase to 5-8 KT Wednesday around 16/17Z at all
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure center over the Florida peninsula will push east over
the Atlantic tonight and Wednesday as the next cold front pushes
into the deep South. This will turn the wind flow out of the
southwest on Wednesday with some increase in surface and transport
speeds, producing Very Good to Excellent dispersion values. Near
critical RH values around 35 percent across the interior and Volusia
county will produce a fire sensitive day where any new or existing
fires could spread rapidly.

Scattered to numerous showers will overspread the area late
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Rainfall amounts of one tenth to
one quarter inch is forecast with locally up to one half inch
possible. Winds will turn northwest behind the front by afternoon
and become gusty. Very Good to Excellent dispersion will develop
once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  37  71  47  59 /   0   0  60  40
MCO  43  72  51  61 /   0   0  60  40
MLB  42  70  48  63 /   0   0  40  50
VRB  42  72  46  64 /   0   0  20  50
LEE  41  72  48  58 /   0   0  70  30
SFB  41  72  49  60 /   0   0  60  40
ORL  44  72  51  60 /   0   0  60  40
FPR  42  72  46  65 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044.

AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion