Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

293
FXUS62 KMLB 090735
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
235 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

- A high risk of rip currents persists at area beaches through
  early this week, along with lingering poor boating conditions
  in the Gulf Stream.

- Drought conditions and lower humidity values through midweek
  combine to produce fire sensitive conditions.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures return this week with
  any notable rain chances likely holding off towards next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today-Tue...High pressure remains in control of our local weather
through early week with a weak pressure gradient in place and
light/variable winds. There should be a weak sea breeze along the
coast each afternoon as winds transition along the coast with slow
movement inland. The airmass continues to be dry with no precip
forecast. The gradual warming trend continues, with highs closer
to or slightly above normal in the 70s. Another cool night in
store with lows in the 40s for most Mon overnight/Tue morning,
then slightly warmer Tue overnight/Wed morning with U40s to L50s.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will favor fog formation each
night. We presently have patchy fog wording in the forecast for
early this morning and may have to add it to the forecast for
overnight into early Tue morning as well. Should fog develop,
localized visibilities of a half-mile or less will be possible.

At the beaches, a high risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening
rip currents continues thru early this week due to a persistent
long period swell. Rough surf will also be present. Do not let
the warmer conditions catch you off guard. Entering the chilly
water is discouraged!

Wed-Fri...High pressure begins to break down on Wed with the
approach of a weak front that will pass southward into central FL on
Thu and gradually losing its identity into late week across south-
central FL. For now we keep conditions mostly dry over land with
some shower activity across the local coastal waters, though will
have to watch for some potential activity along the coast on Fri.
Highs continue above normal in the 70s and perhaps a few L80s
possible - generally south of Orlando and inland from the coast.
Overnight lows a little warmer and mainly in the 50s for most.

Sat-Sun...A fairly stout shortwave trough will drive a stronger cold
front through the area on Sun. As moisture surges ahead of the
approaching front, models try to spit out some light precip chances
(20-30pct) on Sat aftn-Sat night, then higher chances (30-50pct)
with the front on Sun. We presently keep thunder mention out of the
forecast this weekend for now. Temperatures continue generally
above climo this weekend ahead of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure keeps light/variable winds thru the
morning, at least, with winds transitioning onshore in the
afternoon (along the coast) with sea breeze formation. Winds
gradually transition to SSW-WSW tonight with speeds still
generally below 10 kts. A persistent long period swell (11-12 sec)
will continue to produce seas to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream,
occasional seas to 7 ft offshore possible, with 3-5 ft seas
elsewhere. Seas are forecast to become 3-5 ft areawide later in
the afternoon continuing into tonight. Cautionary Statements will
be in place early on for the Gulf Stream today. Cautionary
Statements may also be necessary near inlets into tonight as
swell periods increase to 12-13 seconds.

Tue-Fri...Ridging over the local waters breaks down into mid-week,
with the next weak cold front traversing the area on Thu losing its
identity over the south-central FL peninsula into Fri. Light and
variable winds continue into Tue with speeds generally AOB 10 kts.
Winds increase Tue overnight/Wed 10-15 kts out of the SW/W. Poor
boating returns, again, for Tue with seas building to 6 ft in the
Gulf Stream lasting into the evening. Small craft will need to
continue to Exercise Caution near inlets as swell periods continue
up to 12-13 seconds (Tue-Wed).

Seas subside back to 3-5 ft area wide Tue overnight into Wed
remaining 2-4 ft late Wed thru Fri. NW/N winds follow the
aforementioned front past mid-week generally AOB 15 kts, gradually
becoming light/variable, once again. ISOLD to SCT showers return
to the forecast Wed overnight into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Patchy fog development will be possible across east central
Florida this morning thanks to clear skies and light winds
areawide. TEMPOs from 09-13Z at all terminals except SUA for MVFR
VIS and CIG reductions, though confidence is highest along the
coastal terminals based on latest model guidance. Will continue to
monitor closely and amend as needed. Light and variable winds
persist into the daytime hours across the interior terminals, with
the sea breeze development causing winds to become more onshore at
the coastal terminals before becoming light and variable once more
after 00Z. Rain is not forecast through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Patchy fog, producing localized visibilities of a half mile or less
will be possible early this morning. High pressure will influence
the weather across east central FL through mid-week and will keep
winds relatively light, generally under 10 mph. A weak front will
slide down the peninsula on Thursday. Variable winds today will
become onshore along the coast in the afternoon with slow transition
inland into early evening. The airmass remains mostly dry, with near
to below critical Min RH values forecast, particularly over interior
east central Florida. Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as
30-35% inland this afternoon and 25-35% across the interior on
Tuesday afternoon. Smoke dispersion will be Poor to Fair today,
becoming Fair to Generally Good on Tuesday, and Very Good into
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  74  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  71  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  73  49  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  73  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  74  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  74  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  73  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion