Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

268
FXUS62 KMLB 092350
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
750 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Isolated showers or a lightning storm drift inland through early
  evening; coastal showers and isolated storms are possible early
  Wednesday morning, especially south of the Cape

- Building moisture will lead to increasing shower and storm
  chances, particularly this weekend into early next week. A
  strong storm or two cannot be ruled out each afternoon/evening.

- Increasing humidity will lead to heat index values of 100 to 105
  degrees or higher this weekend into next week; Moderate to Major
  HeatRisk is likely

- At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues.
  Always swim near a lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Now-Tonight...Temperatures are a degree or three cooler today,
thanks to a fair amount of cloud cover lingering from this morning.
Some sunshine is making it through the clouds as a weak, diffuse sea
breeze has started making its way inland. We have seen some showers
across the adjacent Atlantic waters all morning, though very few
have made it onshore. Through the remainder of the afternoon, partly
to mostly cloudy conditions will persist with temps in the mid 80s
to near 90 degrees (inland). An isolated shower or storm remains
possible, especially west of I-95 and north of I-4. Temperatures
tonight will settle into the 70s (near 80 at the coast) as isolated
showers develop, mainly after midnight.

Near-surface moisture will be greatest south of the Cape, down along
the Treasure Coast. With light steering flow and PW values of 1.8-
2.0" in place, some CAMs are showing locally heavy rainfall (1-2"+)
potential in a few spots from Sebastian southward. There is a chance
that heavier amounts could fall just offshore, but this will be
something to keep an eye on prior to daybreak Wednesday. Lightning
also cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure slides east over the Atlantic,
placing east central Florida on the western periphery of the surface
high by Thursday. East-southeast winds (10-15 mph) Wednesday start
to shift even more SSE Thursday afternoon and night. In this
timeframe, models continue to disagree on the amount of available
moisture, particularly from the Orlando metro toward the coast.
Farther inland, greater moisture and instability, along with a sea
breeze collision, looks to support isolated to scattered showers and
storms Wednesday afternoon. Weak bulk shear and warmer mid level
temps appear (overall) less favorable for strong storm development;
however, the combination of steep low-level lapse rates and water-
loaded updrafts do make a case for not ruling out gusty winds and
locally heavy rain. As is with boundary collisions, a non-zero
chance for a brief funnel cloud exists, but higher LCLs keeps the
tornado threat at bay. Again, the focus would be from mid-late
afternoon through the early evening, near or just west of the
Orlando metro where a sea breeze collision is projected.

Little change to the pattern is expected on Thursday as onshore flow
continues and an afternoon sea breeze develops. There may be an
isolated shower near/just offshore of the Treasure Coast in the
morning, but this remains out of the official forecast for now.
Another round of afternoon/early evening showers and storms is
forecast, especially for locations west of I-95, as the sea breeze
collision takes place. Again, a lack of shear precludes greater
storm organization, but a strong wind gust or heavy rainmaker cannot
be ruled out. Temperatures trend warmer both days with less pre-
convective cloud cover forecast. Conditions each night will remain
warm and muggy.

Friday-Tuesday...Overall moisture builds areawide late week into the
weekend as mid level ridging remains in place. Surface flow remains
light and variable Friday, turning onshore with the P.M. sea breeze.
Light but offshore (SSW) flow is anticipated, prior to sea breeze
development, beginning on Saturday. An offshore flow pattern looks
to continue into next week as well. This slight change in wind
direction would favor a greater chance for showers and storms closer
to the east central Florida coast...especially Sunday into next
week. The highest coverage will still be focused along the advancing
sea breezes and eventual collision, with some push back toward the
east coast in the evening.

Along with slightly higher rain chances and moisture comes hotter,
more humid conditions. With highs forecast to reach the low 90s each
day, heat index values climb into the 100-105F+ range. A Major
HeatRisk could develop as early as Friday or Saturday, taking into
account the fact that overnight lows/humidity offer little reprieve
from daytime temps/humidity. This is something to keep in mind if
you have outdoor plans this weekend, as staying cool and adequately
hydrated will become even more important to avoiding heat-related
illness.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

High pressure remains in place, supporting favorable boating
conditions into the weekend (outside of any showers/storms). East-
southeast flow prevails through at least Thursday/Friday before
gradually turning more SSW this weekend, prior to the afternoon east
coast sea breeze developing. Moisture ramps up, especially Friday
onward, leading to increased shower and lightning storm chances.
Nighttime rain chances continue with some activity drifting toward
the coast at times. With greater offshore flow this weekend, some
inland storms may drift east toward the local Atlantic. Seas
generally 2-3 ft, locally higher in and around storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Line of SHRA with OCNL embedded TSRA slowly encroaching on KMLB-
KDAB from the Atlantic waters. Cluster of SHRA/TSRA off the Cape
has been persistent enough for at TEMPO at KTIX late this evening,
and will need to monitor trends at KDAB. Additional coastal SHRA
possible through the late evening into the overnight and Wednesday
morning, and coastal terminals carry VCSH most or all of the late
evening into the overnight and Wednesday morning. Morning cu-
field could become MVFR at times before lifting/mixing. Less mid-
upper level clouds expected Wednesday, but slightly higher chances
for afternoon-evening SHRA/TSRA INVOF inland terminals forecast.
ERLY winds 5-10 kts this evening become light/VRB overnight,
shifting SE 5-10 kts Wednesday morning, then backing more ERLY in
the afternoon as a diffuse sea breeze develops. Onshore flow
expected to keep most SHRA/TSRA west of coastal terminals by the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  73  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  91  74  92 /  10  40  20  50
MLB  78  88  76  89 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  77  88  74  90 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  75  92 /  10  40  30  50
SFB  74  92  73  94 /  10  30  10  40
ORL  75  91  74  93 /  10  40  20  50
FPR  76  87  74  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion