Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

509
FXUS62 KMLB 181113
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
613 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

- A strong cold front will move across east central Florida
  today, bringing increasing rain chances out ahead of it.

- Northwest winds behind the front become strong and gusty, with
  a 10% chance of gusts up to 50 mph across the area. A Wind
  Advisory will be in effect for all of east central Florida
  today.

- Temperatures quickly fall behind the front, with a return of
  well below-normal temperatures and bitter wind chills. A Freeze
  Warning and Cold Weather Advisory will both be in effect for
  portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Today-Tonight...A strong cold front will approach and move
southward across east central Florida today, bringing a variety of
weather concerns along with it. Rain chances increase out ahead
of the front, with the first showers already beginning to develop
early this morning across far northern portions of the area.
Coverage is forecast to increase from north to south as the front
moves southward across the area, with rain chances decreasing by
this afternoon as the front moves south of east central Florida. A
lack of instability will limit any storm development, so have
continued to leave out any mention of thunder within the forecast.

Immediately along and behind the front, winds veer to out of the
northwest, with windy and gusty conditions forecast areawide.
Sustained winds are anticipated to reach 15 to 25 mph and gusts of
35 to 45 mph will be possible. There is also a low chance (10%)
for a gust to 50 mph in some spots. A Wind Advisory will go into
effect at 10 AM for the Orlando and Daytona Beach areas, expanding
southward to the Space and Treasure Coast areas at 12 PM. Winds
are anticipated to subside below advisory threshold by 5 PM,
though breezy and gusty conditions are anticipated to continue
into the late evening and overnight hours.

A sharp temperature gradient will be present across east central
Florida as a result of the cold front passage today. Highs will
range from the low 60s across northern Volusia and Lake counties
all the way to the low 80s across the Treasure Coast. Temperatures
will rapidly cool as the front moves southward, which will be
noticeable when in combination with the windy and gusty
conditions. The northwesterly winds will help advect the colder
air mass towards east central Florida, resulting in sharply colder
temperatures tonight. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into
the upper 20s to upper 30s across most of east central Florida,
with the coldest temperatures primarily focused across the
interior and rural areas. A Freeze Warning will be in effect late
tonight into early Monday morning for Lake, Seminole, Orange,
Osceola, and Volusia counties. Aside from temperatures simply
being cold, the persistent breezy and gusty winds will cause wind
chill values to fall below 30 degrees across most of east central
Florida. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory will also be in effect
for all of east central Florida except coastal Martin County.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to dress appropriately,
protect sensitive plants, keep pets indoors, and use any space
heaters safely.

Monday-Wednesday...Behind the cold front, an area of high
pressure is forecast to build across the southeastern US,
gradually shifting eastward and off the coast out across the
Atlantic by mid-week. Locally, this will result in a return of
mostly dry conditions areawide as the cool, dry air mass settles
southward. Rain chances remain near zero Monday through Wednesday.
North winds persist into Monday, slowly becoming northeasterly by
mid- week as the high shifts offshore. Breezy conditions will
also persist, with winds of 10 to 15 mph forecast each afternoon.

Temperatures on Monday afternoon will be below-normal in the mid
50s to mid 60s areawide with yet another night of cold
temperatures anticipated Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows
fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s and even though freezing
temperatures aren`t anticipated to be a concern, persistent breezy
winds Monday night will lead to wind chill values falling into
the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the interior west of I-95.
An additional Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for interior
zones of east central Florida Monday night into Tuesday. Patchy
frost also cannot be ruled out Monday night into Tuesday across
northern rural portions of Lake and Volusia counties, though
confidence remains low. Tuesday and Wednesday, afternoon
temperatures begin to slowly warm closer to near-normal values in
the 60s and low 70s. One more night of near to slightly below
normal temperatures on Tuesday night in the 40s to mid 50s,
warming into the 50s areawide by Wednesday night.

Thursday-Saturday...Looking into the extended period, the next
best chance for rain begins on Thursday out ahead of the next
potential cold front passage. Timing discrepancies between long-
range guidance has led the NBM to maintain a 20-40% chance of rain
Thursday through Friday, so have stuck with this for now given
uncertainty. The expectation is that PoPs will trend more towards
one day as the timing becomes clearer. High pressure will then
strengthen across the southeastern US late this week and into next
weekend behind the front, leading to a return of drier conditions
across the peninsula and some low chances for showers across the
local Atlantic waters. The warming trend continues late this week
into next weekend, with a return of near to above normal
temperatures forecast areawide

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A strong cold front will approach and move across the local
Atlantic waters today, with rain chances forecast to increase out
ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible
across the local waters, with rain chances dropping quickly as
the front moves south of the area. Immediately behind the front,
boating conditions are anticipated to rapidly deteriorate and
become hazardous. Strong, gusty northwest winds are forecast to
develop, with wind speeds of 15 to 30 knots and gale-force gusts
possible. Seas respond by rapidly building up to 8 feet across the
offshore waters, remaining closer to 4-6 feet across the
nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories expand across the local
waters with the wind surge and linger across the Gulf Stream
waters due to the higher seas into Monday.

Conditions slowly improve into Monday as winds and seas subside,
with dry conditions returning as high pressure builds just north
of the area. By Tuesday, the passage of a reinforcing front will
lead to another surge of poor boating conditions across the
offshore waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Poor conditions then
persist as onshore winds increase on Wednesday and back to out of
the north on Thursday ahead of the next potential frontal passage.
Rain chances reenter the forecast on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 611 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

MCO IMPACTS:
- Powerful cold front still scheduled to arrive around 18/17Z with
  abruptly stronger northwesterly wind gusts. 68-80% chance of
  wind gusts >= 30 KT.

- Brief CIG reductions and showers along and just behind the front
  on midday-early afternoon.

CROSSWIND POTENTIAL: along the front early afternoon...
MCO 18/36 & 17/35: 15-20 KT DAB 07/25: 20-28 KT

Focus turns to the strong cold front arriving from NW to SE late
morning - mid afternoon. Sudden wind shifts from SW to NW are
anticipated as the front passes. In addition, peak gusts from 30-35
KT appear likely (~ 60% +) with localized gusts to 40-45 KT a lower,
but non-zero probability. Guidance temporarily restricts CIGs to
MVFR or even IFR along and just behind the front. Clouds scatter and
gusts quickly decrease this evening as the front sweeps offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast
over the next couple of days. Today, strong, gusty northwest winds
are forecast immediately behind a cold front, with sustained
winds of 15 to 25 mph forecast and gusts of 35 to 50 mph possible.
While minimum RH values will not be a concern, these winds could
lead to control concerns for any existing or smoldering fires.
Monday, minimum RH values will tank as dry air settles across the
area, with RH values falling below 35% across the interior west of
I-95. Periods of 10 to 15 mph winds will also be possible on
Monday, leading to near- critical conditions at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  33  56  39 /  70   0   0   0
MCO  73  35  58  40 /  50   0   0   0
MLB  79  37  61  45 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  81  39  63  46 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  65  32  57  35 /  70   0   0   0
SFB  69  33  58  37 /  60   0   0   0
ORL  71  35  58  39 /  60   0   0   0
FPR  81  39  64  45 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     FLZ058-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion