Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

425
FXUS62 KMLB 141929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Remaining mostly dry over the next several days with a warming
  trend under deep layer high pressure

- Near record highs in the lower 90s late this week and into the
  weekend over the interior.

- Next cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night into
  early Monday and bring a small chance for showers early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thru tonight...Scattered marine stratocu has spit out some
sprinkles/light showers along portions of the coast today and this
should diminish tonight. Noticeably less cirrus today and the
diurnal cu field will diminish after sunset esp over the interior
with skies becoming mostly clear there. With lighter winds, there
is a little better chance for patchy fog across northern sections
(Orlando north and west) toward sunrise as indicated by the HRRR
on several consecutive runs. Though NBM probs remain low at less
than 20%.

Wed-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through
Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward
across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will
gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis.
Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area,
resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry
conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will
continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each
day. Highs will remain closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s
at the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and be warmer than normal
inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb
into late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above
normal area-wide, ranging from the low to mid 80s at the coast
and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland
sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest
potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be
at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below).

Mon-Tue...A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area
Sunday night into early Monday. This will finally lead to a
cooling trend early next week with slightly below normal max
temps on Tue. There will be some increase in rain chances, however
moisture looks meager and the 12Z GFS is trending toward the
drier ECWMF. So PoPs remain on the low end (around 20-30%),
focused on central/southern sections Mon. Both models show a
period of breezy to windy northeast to east winds developing
behind the front that will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Boating conditions will continue to become more favorable the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high
pressure across the Atlantic remains north of the waters through
Wed and then settles southward across central Florida late this
week, then south of the local waters Sun. This will produce a
gradual veering wind flow becoming more SE and S and then finally
SW-W on Sunday. Each afternoon though there will be 10-14 knots
E/SE sea breeze near the coast. Primary contribution to seas will
be an east swell with a bit of wind wave. Combined seas will fall
below 5 FT Wed and range 2-3 FT Fri-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry conditions
today, but an isolated sprinkle can not be ruled out. However,
since confidence is so low (rain chances 10 percent or less),
VCSH is not included in the TAF. ESE winds of 8-12 KT with gusts
to 20 KT this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 KT after 00/01Z
before becoming light later in the overnight hours. ESE winds will
increase to 8-12 KT once again by mid morning Wednesday with
occasional gusts to 20 KT in the afternoon, mainly along the coast
from VRB southward, as winds become enhanced behind the east
coast sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Prevailing onshore winds will continue through Thursday as ridge
axis of high pressure across the Atlantic remains just north of the
area. Easterly winds will increase 10 to 15 mph each afternoon
behind the sea breeze. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible along the
coast. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through late week,
with a gradual warming trend. Onshore flow will keep Min RH values
above critical levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s at the coast.
However, well inland, roughly Kissimmee northward, min RH values
will fall as low as 30-35 percent Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across this area
where lower RH values occur so Red Flag conditions are not forecast.
Dispersion values will be Good to Very Good Wednesday and generally
Good Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  79  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  79  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  60  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  84  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  79  62  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion