Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

589
FXUS62 KMLB 290534
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1234 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Freeze Warning, Frost Advisory, and a Cold Weather Advisory
  remain in effect for much of east central Florida tonight into
  Thursday morning

- Significantly colder air arrives Saturday and Saturday night
  with lows in the 20s and wind chills in the teens to single
  digits Sunday morning; very cold air lasting into early next
  week

- Strong, gusty winds are forecast Saturday into Sunday with gusts
  reaching 35 to 45 mph at times, particularly along the coast
  Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Now-Friday...A mostly clear sky this afternoon has offered
limited surface heating with temperatures still in the mid 50s to
low 60s. A few more clouds are building across Martin and Saint
Lucie counties, where a small plume of 0.7" PW exists. Hi-res
model soundings remain very dry, despite the thin layer of clouds,
so any light shower that does form is likely to stay offshore or
at most brush the coast. Thus, we do carry a 15-20% chance of
light rain across southeastern Martin County through sunset.

Drier air works south overnight with winds remaining light,
generally 10 mph or less. Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures
will drop quickly into the 30s after midnight. A Freeze Warning and
Frost Advisory begins at midnight and continues through 9 AM
Thursday. Probabilistic guidance remains largely unchanged,
indicating the highest chance for sub-freezing temperatures (40-60%)
across rural Volusia, Lake, south-central Osceola, and northern
Okeechobee counties. Locations in and around the Orlando metro will
likely stay a couple degrees warmer with outlying portions of
Seminole, Orange, and northern Osceola counties approaching the
freezing mark. While winds will be light, wind chill values are
still forecast to reach the mid to upper 20s over much of east
central Florida. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory is in place,
beginning at 2 AM Thursday, excluding coastal Brevard County, the
immediate Treasure Coast, and all of Martin County. For the latest
hazards at your location, please visit weather.gov/mlb. Take steps
to protect sensitive plants from the cold.

High pressure maintains a pattern of dry weather through late week
as temperatures trend slightly warmer each day, reaching the upper
60s to low 70s Friday afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are in the
works Thursday, though a few more clouds work across the south on
Friday as moisture generally increases. Overnight lows settle into
the 40s and 50s (upper 30s across northern Lake/inland Volusia
Friday morning).

This Weekend-Tuesday (modified)...Deepening low pressure
transitioning into an eventual nor`easter is still outlined by all
available model guidance into Saturday. This low will form very
close to Florida before lifting into the Atlantic. As it passes by
early Saturday, we still carry 30-50% chances for rain showers.
Rainfall tallies still look on the light side. By late morning and
into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The
initial impact will be a burst of strong west-northwest winds. Peak
wind gusts from 35-45 mph are on the table, and the latest NBME
probabilities show at least a 20% chance of wind gusts 40+ mph
inland (greater than 50% along the coast) Saturday afternoon and
evening as the deepening low tightens the surface pressure gradient.
Keep these winds in mind when considering when and how to protect
any tender vegetation before the cold air arrives!

Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night,
pushing Arctic air down the peninsula. Daily record lows are
anticipated on Sunday morning. Temperatures will only slowly
moderate, with additional freezes anticipated on Monday and Tuesday
morning.

Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several
updates:

SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254-
     547.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion