Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

634
FXUS62 KMLB 171129
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
729 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions this weekend with interior
  locations nearing record highs

- Cold front Sunday night into Monday brings windy conditions,
  cooler temperatures, and a limited rain chance

- Beach and boating conditions will deteriorate Sunday night into
  early next week as winds create rough surf and building seas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Today-Sunday...The advertised warming trend heats up today as high
pressure continues to build over the Florida Peninsula this weekend.
Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees this morning set the
stage for an efficient warmup into the 80s, nearing 90 degrees in
several spots this afternoon. GOES-derived PW indicates really dry
air anchored over our area, but some 1"+ values are starting to
approach the Treasure Coast. Here, a scattered layer of
stratocumulus is streaming northwestward and producing light showers
(south of Martin County, for now). The forecast, reflecting recent
hi-res guidance, carries a 15-20% chance of showers through midday
from Vero Beach southward. Elsewhere, dry and mostly sunny
conditions will persist as the east coast breeze develops and moves
inland. Tonight, lows settle into the 60s to low 70s areawide with
no rain forecast.

H85 temps warm a bit more Saturday and Sunday, solidifying a medium
to high chance (50-80%+ NBM prob.) of locations near/west of I-95
reaching the 90-degree mark. There will be a few more clouds
Saturday and especially Sunday as the upper column and 850-750mb
layer moistens. Model soundings still show a stout dry layer between
700-400mb, working to suppress any precip chances. The east coast
breeze should keep highs a few degrees cooler on Saturday, but
perhaps less so on Sunday as light westerlies delay the formation of
the breeze later into the day. For those spending time outdoors,
especially individuals sensitive to warmer temperatures (low 90s),
be sure to take breaks in a cool space and stay adequately hydrated.
At area beaches, at least a moderate risk of rip currents is
forecast to continue. Swim near a lifeguard and never enter the
water alone!

Sunday Night-Thursday...High pressure quickly weakens Sunday evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds start to turn northerly
just before or around midnight as this front approaches, and breezy
conditions look to develop along the coast through daybreak Monday
(gusts 20-25 mph, up to 30 mph in Volusia). Lack of forcing and time
of day will limit overall precip coverage through sunrise, but with
increasing PW along the front on Monday, a 25-40% rain chance is
introduced from Cape Canaveral southward. Even across the south
where chances are maximized, light QPF is anticipated (generally
0.10" or less). Conditions will be breezy to gusty in the wake of
the front on Monday and even into Tuesday. Hazardous beach
conditions are likely to start the week as a result, including an
increased risk for life-threatening rip currents.

Drier conditions return Tuesday, as high pressure centered over the
Mid Atlantic expands south and west. An onshore breeze continues mid
to late week, and some guidance tries to indicate embedded light
showers forming in the easterly flow. With low confidence and lack
of model-to-model consistencies, rain chances generally remain 15%
or less at the coast Wed-Fri. Temperatures cool noticeably for the
first half of the week, remaining slightly below normal. By mid to
late week, though, temps bounce back closer to normal (upper 70s to
mid 80s).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Sunday afternoon
with high pressure established over the local waters. Light
southerly flow this morning veers easterly late this afternoon, 8-12
kt, behind the developing sea breeze. SSE winds linger overnight and
into Saturday, reaching 10-14 kt and veering SSW late Saturday
night. This light offshore wind backs SSE Sunday afternoon, just
ahead of an approaching cold front arriving Sunday night. A 2-3 ft
swell is forecast to persist through Sunday with only a low chance
of isolated showers through midday today, mainly south of
Sebastian Inlet.

Sunday night into Monday, a cold front is forecast to move south
across the waters. Quickly deteriorating conditions result as NNE
winds increase 20-30 kt with occasional gusts near or just below
gale-force. Seas respond by building rapidly to 7-11 ft Monday and
Monday night. Boating conditions gradually improve north to south
late Tuesday into Wednesday but may remain poor overall. Small Craft
Advisories will be needed beginning Sunday night. Scattered showers
and even an isolated lightning storm are possible along/behind the
front late Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period at all
terminals. Light and variable to calm winds early this morning
will pick up out of the east-southeast around 10 knots along the
coast after 16Z and across the interior after 18Z. Winds are
anticipated to become light and variable once more late tonight.
Low chance of VCSH near SUA and FPR, but confidence too low to
include mention of within the forecast. Similar situation with
patchy fog late tonight into early Saturday morning. Will monitor
both rain and fog chances closely and amend as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A dry airmass and high pressure will continue to support lower
humidity over interior east-central Florida today and Saturday.
Light and variable winds overnight and each morning turn onshore
during the day, reaching 10 to 15 mph. Occasional gusts around 20
mph are possible, particularly at the coast as the sea breeze
develops and moves inland. By and large, fire sensitive conditions
are anticipated. Additionally, an isolated shower or two is possible
through midday along the Treasure Coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  89  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  83  66  85  68 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  90  65  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  90  64  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  90  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion