Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

743
FXUS62 KMLB 271127
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
727 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- A hot and dry pattern will build through much of the week. Many
  interior locations are forecast to reach the low 90s from
  Wednesday into late week.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast behind a weak
  cold front today.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters
  will promote an increasing risk of life-threatening rip currents
  this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Monday-Tuesday... A mid/upper level trough moves offshore the
eastern U.S. seaboard. Surface low pressure developing off the mid
Atlantic coast will pull a cold front through central Florida today
with high pressure and drier air quickly building early Tuesday. Low
rain chances (~10-20%) may exist in vicinity of the front today.
Weak forcing along the front paired with favorable surface
instability will result in a low chance for a lightning storm,
mainly south of Orlando and the Cape. Isolated light showers
(~10%) may move onto the coast behind the front as northeast flow
(10-15 mph) develops. These lingering coastal showers look to
mostly diminish early tonight as the drier airmass builds,
although some High-Res guidance may be a tad optimistic in keeping
a mention into Tuesday. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to
widely prevail Tuesday.

The developing onshore wind component should help regulate
temperatures some compared to prior days, and values should return
closer to normal today. Much of Volusia and areas of coastal Brevard
look to top out in the low 80s this afternoon while much of the
Treasure Coast and interior counties should spread the mid 80s. A
few upper 80s still remain possible across interior Osceola and
Okeechobee. The east coast sea breeze should keep much of the coast
in the low 80s Tuesday with areas west of I-95 warming into the mid
to upper 80s.

A long period swell (14-17 seconds) building across the local
Atlantic waters will promote an increasing risk of rip currents this
week. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents will exist along
the Volusia and northern Brevard coast today and will likely
expand across much of the east central Florida coastline into
Tuesday. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and
signs!

Wednesday-Sunday... High pressure over the Atlantic seaboard sinks
into the western Atlantic early Wednesday with it`s ridge axis
briefly settling across central Florida. Developing low pressure
across the Ohio Valley region moves offshore the Atlantic coast
Thursday pulling the next cold front into Florida. Global ensemble
members are still trying to resolve how the front will evolve as it
approaches or moves through central Florida. Regardless of how
cleanly the boundary may pass, there is generally good consensus on
QPF remaining limited with most areas remaining dry through Friday.
Should rain chances evolve with this feature, the best chances
appear to be on Thursday where there is only a low (~20%) mention
near and north of the Orlando Metro. Late Saturday into early next
week looks to be a more reasonable chance for mentionable rainfall
as yet another front passes the area.

Above normal temperatures continue through much of the extended
forecast period. By Wednesday, ensemble probabilities suggest
moderate to high confidence for interior temperatures to reach the
90 degree mark, and interior highs will generally persist near 90F
through Saturday. Along the coast, highs should more widely vary
through the mid 80s to low 90s mid to late week, "coolest" on Friday
in onshore flow. Some relief comes on Sunday as cloud cover and rain
chances increase and northerly flow begins to advect cooler air.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions spread southward across the
local waters today behind a weak cold front. Small craft should
exercise caution as northeast winds 15-20 kts spread the Volusia and
Brevard waters mid to late morning, increasing across the Treasure
Coast waters into the afternoon. Seas build 4-6 ft across the
nearshore waters, peaking up to 7 ft across portions of the Gulf
Stream. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect for the Volusia
and Brevard offshore waters at 5 PM today for seas up to 7 ft. Seas
slowly subside into tonight allowing the offshore Brevard SCA to
expire at 5 AM Tuesday with the offshore Volusia SCA following at 11
AM. High pressure building over the local waters into Tuesday will
allow for improving conditions with onshore winds slackening around
10 kts and seas mostly subsiding 3-5ft. However, small craft should
exercise caution across portions of the Gulf Stream through sunset
Tuesday for localized higher seas up to 6 ft. More favorable
conditions then build through much of mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Isolated CIGS FEW-SCT008 may become BKN (IFR) at times through
around 13Z, mainly along the Treasure Coast and near LEE.
Meanwhile, VCSH has been included for DAB, as a few showers drift
onshore. Otherwise, mostly dry today, with CIGs SCT030. A few
light showers may drift onshore at times, but overall coverage is
forecast to remain low. Breezy NE winds 12-17 kts, with gusts to
20-25 kts, will be strongest along the coast. Winds slacken into
the evening hours. Then, will need to monitor SCT020 for possible
reductions at times overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  66  82  64 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  84  67  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  82  69  82  69 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  83  68  82  67 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  85  64  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  84  65  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  84  67  87  67 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  83  67  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion