Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

566
FXUS62 KMLB 151120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

- A significant cooldown is on the way behind today`s cold front,
  prompting a Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory Friday
  morning for much of east central Florida

- Showers ending through the morning from west to east as drier
  air moves across the peninsula

- Temperatures rebound briefly on Saturday before another strong
  cold front arrives Sunday afternoon, producing cold mornings and
  cool afternoons through at least Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Today-Tonight...The strong cold front, advertised to bring sharply
colder air to east central Florida, is on its way into the
northern part of the state this morning. To illustrate the
temperature difference, as of 2 AM, it was 58 degrees in
Melbourne. Tallahassee was 50 degrees and Atlanta, Georgia was 33
degrees. Showers are quickly moving from west to east across the
FL Peninsula, though radar indicates that some of this activity is
working to overcome residual dry air in the mid levels. With
regard to rain chances, this forecast follows closely to the
hourly NBM and a blend of CAM guidance, suggesting showers ending
around midday. As the front itself pushes south through the area
from daybreak onward, northwest winds are expected to increase.
Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph are forecast,
ushering in cooler, drier air from the north. Highs today in many
spots will occur late morning or early in the afternoon before the
cooler air starts to filter south in the afternoon. Cloud cover
from the morning is forecast to erode north to south after
lunchtime as model soundings show rapid drying occurring behind
the front.

While winds do decrease some this evening into tonight, speeds
remain 5-10 mph through early Friday morning (up to 15 mph at the
coast). With clear sky conditions and efficient cold air
advection, temperatures will plummet after dark into the 30s and
40s. Wind chill values around midnight are likely to approach the
freezing mark, particularly near and north of I-4. Before
temperatures fall this evening/tonight, be sure to bring pets
inside and protect plants and pipes from freezing. A Freeze
Warning and Cold Weather Advisory have been issued for most of the
area, as a result of forecast lows in the upper 20s to low 30s and
wind chills in the 20s before sunrise Friday.

Friday-Saturday...Surface high pressure becomes centered over the
FL Peninsula Friday, helping to settle wind speeds below 10 mph.
As mentioned, Friday morning starts very cold with freezing
temperatures in many locations and well-below-freezing wind
chills. Before stepping out the door, stay warm by bundling up
with extra layers, a hat, and gloves. Despite a full day of
sunshine, temperatures Friday afternoon are only forecast to reach
the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide. Another cold night is in store
Friday night, though there is going to be a bit of a range from
north to south. NBM probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees or
less are 20-30% across far northwestern Volusia and Lake counties,
so we are not anticipating another freeze Saturday morning.

850mb flow from the SSW returns Saturday, helping to warm us up in
concert with plenty of sunshine. How about a 70-degree day to thaw
things out before more cold arrives Sunday night? If you are
looking for the pick day to get outdoors, Saturday is that day.
Lows Saturday night remain cool but are about 5 to 10 degrees
warmer compared to Friday night. Isolated showers cannot be ruled
out south of the Cape late Saturday night into Sunday morning,
though most activity will remain offshore.

Sunday-Wednesday...500mb troughing digs south Sunday morning with
formidable energy rounding the base of the trough over central
Florida Sunday afternoon. Models favor a band of showers
approaching the northwest corner of our area from midday through
mid afternoon. However, dry air rushing south behind another
strong cold front undercuts precipitation. Thus, only a 15-20%
chance of rain is forecast for now, generally Orlando to Cape
Canaveral and points north. Northwest winds are also expected to
pick back up along and behind the front Sunday afternoon, gusting
20-25 mph. The latest guidance has trended temperatures down,
suggesting a repeat of both freezing temperatures and sub-30
degree wind chills again Monday morning. NBM and LREF
probabilities of 32 degrees or lower are already 30-60% or higher
from south to north over portions of the interior. Overall, Monday
looks cold with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

An expansive area of high pressure settles over the central CONUS
Tuesday, shifting south and east by midweek. Locally, another cold
start to the day is anticipated Tuesday with breezy north winds
sending wind chills back into the upper 20s and low 30s. Cold
Weather Advisories are likely Monday and possible again Tuesday
morning if these trends in wind and temperature guidance persist.
High pressure sticks around through Wednesday, and temperatures
look to recover by then, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s.
Looking ahead, temperatures close to normal (if not slightly
above normal) return Thursday, perhaps lingering through late week
or the early part of next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Marine conditions quickly turn hazardous this morning as a cold
front passes over the local waters. Northwest winds are forecast
to increase, reaching 20-25 kt by midday and 25-30 kt over the
Gulf Stream this afternoon. Occasional gusts to gale force cannot
be ruled out over the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories
begin early this morning in the offshore marine legs, expanding to
include all of the local Atlantic by 10 AM EST. Seas respond,
building to 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore this afternoon.
At their peak, 10 ft seas are possible in the Gulf Stream tonight
into early Friday morning.

High pressure builds over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters
Friday, helping to quickly settle winds and eventually wave
heights. Hazardous boating may linger in the offshore through
early afternoon with generally favorable conditions resuming
everywhere Friday night into Saturday. Seas Saturday morning fall
to 1-3 ft.

Another strong cold front is set to move through Sunday into early
Monday, producing another episode of gusty northwest winds and
hazardous seas to start the next work week. Poor to hazardous
conditions resume as early as Sunday morning, spreading southward
through the day. Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely
Sunday into at least Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

VCSH continues at most terminals this morning as a cold front
continues southward across the Florida peninsula. Some VIS and CIG
reductions have occurred due to -SHRA, so have kept TEMPOs in at
MLB southward where activity is strongest. Showers are forecast
to diminish by 17Z, with dry and breezy conditions anticipated
behind the front. Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to
30 knots will be possible this afternoon, with winds gradually
diminishing into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible over
the next several days. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph today will lead to
excellent dispersion, along with lower humidity values working
into locations north of I-4. On Friday, lighter winds resume but
lower humidity builds south across interior east central Florida.
Some moisture returns to the area Saturday before another cold
front Sunday into Monday brings drier air and sensitive fire
conditions early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  31  59  41 /  40   0   0   0
MCO  60  34  60  44 /  40   0   0   0
MLB  64  34  62  47 /  70   0   0   0
VRB  66  34  64  46 /  70   0   0   0
LEE  57  30  59  39 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  59  32  61  41 /  40   0   0   0
ORL  59  34  60  44 /  40   0   0   0
FPR  66  33  64  46 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-247-254-259-547.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ347-
     647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday
     for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion