Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

114
FXUS62 KMLB 011128
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
628 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Blustery and very cold conditions to start this morning. A
  Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning are in effect for
  all of east central Florida through this morning and again
  tonight into Monday morning. Dangerous wind chill values of 9 to
  15 degrees and a hard freeze with low temperatures in the 20s
  are forecast this morning, and wind chill values of 14 to 20
  degrees and a hard freeze with low temperatures in the 20s are
  forecast Monday morning.

- Dangerous boating conditions continue this morning, with a Gale
  Warning persisting through early this afternoon. Mariners should
  remain in port. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger
  into early next week.

- A High Risk for rip currents and rough surf exists at area
  beaches and will continue through early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Currently...Gusty northwest winds continue to transport the cold and
much drier arctic airmass into the region this morning. Temperatures
have fallen below freezing and have already broke daily records for
most locations. Wind chills are already in the teens to low 20s.
Lows are forecast to bottom out around the low to mid 20s,
threatening coldest temperatures on record for the month of
February! Wind chills as low as 9 to 15 degrees are forecast around
daybreak. The Extreme Cold Warning continues through 10 AM this
morning and the Freeze Warning for hard freeze conditions continues
through 11 AM this morning. If heading outdoors this morning, make
sure to dress warmly as these dangerously cold conditions can lead
to frostbite and hypothermia.

Today-Monday...Strong nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
continue to lift north-northeast today, with west-northwest winds
gradually decreasing. However, winds will still remain breezy around
15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Temperatures will remain much
colder than normal, with highs not making it out of the 40s for most
areas. Northwest winds will diminish further into tonight, but still
reside around 5-10 mph (highest along the coast). Another very cold
night is in store, with damaging hard freeze conditions again
forecast as lows fall into the 20s. While winds will be lighter
they will still produce very cold wind chills as low as 14 to 20
degrees. A Freeze Warning for the hard freeze conditions and an
Extreme Cold Warning for the dangerously low wind chills remains
in place for all of east central Florida tonight from 7 PM this
evening through 10 AM Monday morning. People and pets with
inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and
hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants
and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected.

High pressure builds in from the west into tomorrow, with northwest
winds around 5-15 mph. Temperatures will rise a little more, but
still be well below normal, with highs in the 50s. Lows Monday
night/early Tuesday morning look to again reach freezing for many
locations, as they fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. Lighter winds
and clear skies will also make for more favorable conditions for
areas to widespread frost to form, even for locations that don`t
quite reach the freezing mark.

Tuesday-Sunday...High pressure across the area Tuesday shifts
eastward through midweek, with ridge axis remaining across the area.
Temperatures will continue to gradually climb, with highs reaching
into the 60s Tuesday and 70s (near normal values) into Wednesday.
Patchy/areas of frost may still be possible into Wednesday morning,
mainly across the interior where lows are forecast to fall as low as
the mid to upper 30s. Lows Wednesday night are then forecast to at
least remain above the 40 degree mark. However, another cold front
will approach and move through the area Thursday. While this front
will not be as potent as the one that just moved through the area,
it will still lead to another round of much colder/potentially
freezing temperatures for some inland rural spots into Thursday
night/Friday morning. Rain chances will also increase ahead of the
front into Wednesday night, up to 30-60%, with rain chances
lingering through Thursday. Instability looks too low to mention any
thunderstorm potential at this time.

Another cold front looks to move through during the weekend, but may
be even weaker. Still, temperatures look to remain near to below
normal, with dry conditions generally forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Today-Tonight...Gale Warning continues across the entire coastal
waters through 1PM this afternoon as dangerous boating conditions
persist. A tight pressure gradient produced by the strong
nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to generate
strong NW winds around 30-40 knots, with gusts up to 40-45 knots
through daybreak. Winds gradually decrease through the day out of
the NW as strong low pressure shifts farther north-northeast. Wind
speeds drop to around 25-35 knots this morning and then 15-25
knots into the afternoon. The Gale Warning transitions to a Small
Craft Advisory for the entire waters after 1PM, with hazardous
boating conditions continuing through tonight. Seas this morning
will continue to build up to 11-17 feet offshore, with seas closer
to 6-10 feet nearshore. Wave heights will only slow fall through
the day into tonight, with seas decreasing to 8-14 feet offshore
this afternoon and 7-11 feet into tonight.

Monday-Thursday...High pressure builds in from the west and across
Florida early this week. This will allow N/NW winds and seas to
continue to gradually decrease. Still, poor to hazardous boating
conditions will continue into Monday and Monday night. Wind speeds
will decrease from 15-25 knots in the morning to 10-20 knots in the
afternoon and then generally less than 15 knots into the overnight
hours Monday night. The Small Craft Advisory across the entire
waters will gradually trim back to just the Gulf Stream waters into
the afternoon, as winds/seas continue to gradually diminish.

Boating conditions will continue to gradually improve through
Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure shifts eastward, with
ridge axis remaining across central FL. Another cold front will
then approach the waters Wednesday night and through the waters
Thursday, with boating conditions once again becoming poor to
hazardous.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Breezy/gusty
conditions through the afternoon with northwest winds 10-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts. Winds and gusts subside in the evening,
dropping to 12 kts or less between 20Z-00Z, and 5-10 kts
overnight. Winds remain out of the northwest Monday picking up to
10-15 kts with a few gusts to 20-25 kts in the afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions forecast today, as a very cold and
much drier airmass has moved into the area. Strong northwest winds
will continue to decrease through daybreak this morning. However,
they will still be breezy and gusty through the day today, ranging
from 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Despite the colder
temps, very low dewpoints (single digits in some spots) will produce
minimum RH values in the 20s across east central Florida. While
these critical fire weather conditions will exist today, the
Significant Fire Potential remains low, precluding the need for a
Red Flag Warning.

High pressure gradually builds in from the west and across the area
early this week, which will allow north-northwest winds to weaken
and become more light and variable into Tuesday. Critically low
Min RH values will continue areawide tomorrow (below 30%), and
will then be confined to mostly the interior on Tuesday afternoon
(around 25- 35%). No mentionable rain chances through early this
week. Smoke dispersion values will be good to very good today and
very good to excellent on Monday.

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  24 02/18/1958   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/26/1967   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        25 02/18/1958   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      27 02/26/1967   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     28 02/24/1989   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  46  28  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  47  25  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  48  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  26  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  44  26  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  45  29  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  49  25  57  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
     547-647-747.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Monday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion