Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

509
FXUS62 KMLB 082318
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
618 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

- A high risk of rip currents persists at area beaches and will
  likely continue through early this week, along with lingering
  poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream.

- Drought conditions and lower humidity values through midweek
  combine to produce fire sensitive conditions.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures return this week with
  any notable rain chances likely holding off until next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic shifts
southeast and offshore early this week, with ridge axis extending
across Florida as the high settles across the west Atlantic. This
will continue dry conditions and overall light winds across the
area. A gradual warming trend begins, with highs closer to even just
slightly above normal in the 70s. However, lows tonight and Monday
night will still be below normal in the 40s.

The influence of high pressure will favor fog development each
night. Some of the hi-res guidance such as the HRRR is a little more
bullish on dense fog formation tonight. However, MOS guidance is a
little less enthused. For now have added patchy fog wording to the
forecast for late tonight through early Monday morning, with
localized visibilities of a half mile or less possible.

At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will
likely continue into early this week due to an incoming long-period
swell. Do not let the warmer conditions catch you off guard.
Entering the water is discouraged!

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure across the west Atlantic shifts
farther offshore midweek, as a weak frontal boundary approaches
Florida. Model guidance shows this boundary at least moving into the
coastal waters from the northeast, before stalling and fading into
late week. High stay near to slightly above normal in the 70s for
most locations and low 80s possible across the interior south of
Orlando, with overnight lows near normal in the 50s. Dry conditions
forecast to mostly continue across land areas through late week, but
frontal boundary may lead to the development of isolated to
scattered showers across the coastal waters.

Saturday-Sunday...12Z model guidance coming into better agreement
with forecast details into the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF
show a mid level S/W trough shifting eastward from the Southern
Plains eastward through Florida. This leads to surface low
pressure development that tracks through the Southeast U.S. and
eventually drags a cold front through central Florida into late
weekend, increasing rain chances (currently up to 30-40% for
Sunday). Temperatures look to remain near to slightly above normal
into the weekend ahead of the frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight-Monday...High pressure toward the Mid-Atlantic coast will
shift southeast and offshore into Monday. Winds will remain
generally light (less than 10 knots) and somewhat variable into
tonight before becoming more predominately out of the north into
Monday. A lingering swell will continue to produce seas up to 6 feet
over the Gulf Stream waters. There may be some occasional seas still
up to 7 feet offshore, but given the lighter winds and increasing
swell periods (up to 11-12sec), will end the Small Craft
Advisory. However, small craft will still need to exercise
caution across the Gulf Stream through tonight into Monday as
seas up to 6 feet persist through at least the early afternoon,
diminishing to 3-5 feet by late afternoon into Monday night.

Tuesday-Friday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
will extend across Florida into Tuesday, with high pressure then
shifting farther offshore into midweek as another weak front
approaches the area. This boundary will push through the waters
Thursday as it gradually fades into late week. Winds remain
somewhat light and variable into Tuesday, with speeds less than 10
knots, and then pick up out of the S/SW up to 10-15 knots Tuesday
night, veering to the west on Wednesday. Poor boating conditions
will exist again across the Gulf Stream on Tuesday as swells
increase seas back to 6 feet offshore. Small craft will also need
to exercise caution near inlets as swell periods increase up to
12-13 seconds.

Boating conditions then become a little more favorable into
Wednesday as seas fall to 3-5 feet, and look to remain favorable for
much of late week as frontal passage currently doesn`t look to
create much of a surge in northerly winds. However, isolated to
scattered showers will be possible along and behind this boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 618 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Simple TAFs continue with light/VRB winds. Only concern is a
period of fog potential late tonight and into early Monday
morning. For MCO, prob of IFR is around 10-20% by sunrise.
Inserted TEMPO MVFR, will monitor trends through the night. Winds
turn NE to E up to 10 KT at coastal terminals Monday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Influence of high pressure extending across the area will keep winds
relatively light, generally under 10 mph, through early this week.
Winds will be out of the north-northeast Monday, with a more
variable direction on Tuesday. Airmass will remain dry, with near to
below critical Min RH values forecast, particularly over interior
east central Florida. Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as
30-35% inland tomorrow afternoon and 25-35% across the interior on
Tuesday afternoon. Smoke dispersion will be poor to fair Monday,
becoming fair to generally good on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  73  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  47  71  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  72  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion