Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

445
FXUS62 KMLB 011404
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1004 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

- Showers continue across St. Lucie and Martin counties this
  morning, redeveloping showers and storms possible later this
  afternoon (mainly south of Melbourne)

- A weak front remains quasi-stationary across south-central
  Florida, keeping conditions drier from Orlando northward

- Seasonably warm to hot conditions persist into next week, with a
  brief drop in humidity across the I-4 corridor today and
  possibly into Monday, as drier air filters in briefly behind the
  front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Strong to severe storms have ended across southern counties,
following a couple of warnings earlier this morning. Rain
continues over portions of Okeechobee, St. Lucie, and Martin
counties; however, a majority of this activity will dissipate by
lunchtime. With a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the
Treasure Coast region and sufficient moisture in place, isolated
to scattered showers and storms are forecast to redevelop again
this afternoon. The strong storm threat will be conditional, as
morning convection may delay the rebuilding of instability over
the same areas. Areas north of Melbourne (and especially from
Orlando northward) should stay dry for the remainder of the day.

No significant changes were made to the temperature forecast, with
the exception of a slightly "cooler" afternoon around Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast, due in part to morning rain,
cloud cover, and delayed heating.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Current-Tonight...Former frontal boundary strewn across the south-
central FL peninsula early this morning. Rather tight moisture
gradient with PWATs near 0.80" across north Lake/north Volusia
counties and around 1.80" around Lake Okee. We are seeing occasional
shortwave impulses embedded in the WRLY flow aloft traverse the FL
peninsula. South of Orlando, where moisture is deepest, we will see
SCT showers/ISOLD storms into the morning hours. The weather pattern
remains unsettled with ISOLD-SCT convective chances near the I-4
corridor thru the day - highest (NMRS coverage) still southward
across our coverage warning area. It should be noted that Martin
County has been highlighted by the Storms Prediction Center in a
Marginal Risk for a severe storm or two. Light morning SW/W
surface winds will continue into this afternoon but may "back"
more southerly along the Volusia and Space coasts with speeds
generally 5-10 kts.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible today, generally Okeechobee
County and the Treasure Coast - where multiple rounds could increase
overall rain totals. Other primary storm threats include lightning
strikes, gusty winds 35-50 mph, and perhaps some small hail. Max
temps return to the U80s to potentially a few L90s north of I-4
where drier and sunnier conditions will exist. Lows continue near
seasonal with conditions muggy.

Mon-Mon Night...A vigorous mid-level trough across the Deep South is
forecast to slowly weaken and close-off across the central FL
peninsula by evening. Forecast 500mb temps are -10C to -12C.
Adequate PWAT values will exist with lowest - 1.50" across the I-4
corridor and near 1.80" along the Treasure Coast. The ECSB will
develop along the coast and storm steering flow will be WRLY at 15-
20 mph. With ample surface heating, moisture and afternoon-evening
sea/lake breeze and convective mesoscale interactions, we should see
greatest PoP chances (30-90pct - highest south twd Lake Okee)
across the eastern peninsula. Some storms may be strong/svr with
locally heavy rainfall also in play. One fly in the ointment could
be any ongoing convection over the E/SE Gulf early in the period
could stymie instability by sending "blow-off" from these storms
across the peninsula. Activity diminishes mid-late evening as it
dissipates and/or moves off of the coast. High temps, again, in
the U80s with a few L90s possible (N of I-4).

Tue-Sat...The weak, troughy, pattern in the mid-levels continues
into mid-week, then weakens over the eastern Gulf into late week
as it retrogrades slightly. If this plays out, expect elevated
shower/storm chances as deep moisture remains in place with
SCT/NMRS coverage each afternoon/evening. Surface high pressure
centered over the mid Atlc States early in the period will weaken
slightly into mid-week as it moves seaward with associated ridge
axis north of central FL. Surface flow becomes mainly E/SE
(perhaps even S) thru much of this period with speeds 5-10 mph and
a little higher along the coast, with the ECSB developing and
pushing inland each afternoon. Seasonably warm temperatures
prevail through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to
L90s. Mins remain within range of seasonal norms as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Today-Thu...The former front across south-central FL is forecast to
gradually dissipate as high pressure builds over the southeast
U.S. NW/W morning winds continue to slacken as the pgrad weakens,
becoming more SW into the afternoon, except "backing" (S/SE) at
the coast with sea breeze formation. Offshore winds prevail again
this evening and overnight. As we head further into next week Mon
evening, onward, winds will become generally E/SE (perhaps S) with
speeds remaining AOB 15 kts outside of convection. Initial seas
1-2 ft very near shore and 2-3 ft offshore will subside to 1-2 ft
areawide by this afternoon, then will build to 2-3 ft, once again,
Tue afternoon-early evening, with potential 4 ft seas offshore
and Volusia waters Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

TAF period will start with scattered showers/storms for SUA and
FPR, perhaps impinging on VRB. Elsewhere will be dry through much
of the day; will leave mention of redevelopment out of TAFs this
afternoon (for now) due to 

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion