Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

484
FXUS62 KMLB 150603
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Numerous showers and storms will impact the area later today and
  Monday. A few storms could become strong or severe, with a 5-10%
  chance for damaging winds up to 60 mph and quarter-size hail.

- Beneficial rainfall is expected, but repeated storms may lead to
  minor flooding in urban areas.

- A strong cold front moves through Monday night, bringing gusty
  winds and hazardous boating conditions. Much cooler air arrives
  Tuesday morning, with lows falling into the 40s across the
  Orlando and Daytona Beach areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

A split flow regime continues this morning, with Florida sitting
just north of the subtropical jet. Across the northern Rockies,
a 170 kt H3 polar jet streak is beginning to carve out a longwave
trough that will drive a blizzard across the Upper Midwest and
severe weather across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The initial approach of this sharpening trough has turned mid-level
winds southwesterly over Florida. Within the subtropical jet, a weak
impulse of energy over the western Gulf is expected to move over
the state this afternoon and evening. As it does, it will encounter
moderate to strong instability, courtesy of cool H5 temps (~ -13
deg C) above a warm, moist boundary layer. Proximity soundings
reveal 2000+ J/kg of SFC CAPE, sufficient downdraft CAPE, and weak
but veering wind profiles yielding around 20 KT of effective shear.

As the unusually deep longwave trough over the Central U.S. migrates
eastward, a surface cold front is expected to reach the Florida
Peninsula on Monday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to
increase to 30-35 kt as southwesterly winds increase ahead of the
front. PW values from 150-175% of mid-March norms will persist
until the front passes, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of SFC CAPE
during peak heating.

Much drier and cooler air filters in behind the front on Monday
night. Ensemble-averaged H925 (~ 3 kft) temperatures fall to
between +3 and +9 deg C on Tuesday afternoon, which is near the
5th percentile for the time of year.

The 13/12Z grand ensemble is coming into somewhat better agreement
with the pattern from mid to late next week, but the details are
still a bit murky. The polar jet is expected to quickly retreat
northward, but Florida will sit downstream of a strong H5 ridge
and unprecedented March heatwave over the Desert Southwest for
much of the week. With the PNA turning positive, this is likely to
leave a weak mid-level trough somewhere near the state. This
feature should interact with a baroclinic zone to produce a
surface trough or an area of low pressure by around Thursday,
particularly near or just offshore of South Florida.

With Central Florida sandwiched between a potential surface trough
and continental high pressure to the north, onshore breezes are
expected to freshen from mid to late next week. This will yield
some temperature moderation but also allow for some moisture to
return. Expect a sharp gradient of moisture over the southern half
of the state through at least Thursday.

By next weekend, another trough will enter the Northeast U.S.,
likely kicking much of this moisture out to sea. Temperatures are
expected to continue moderating as west-northwest flow aloft
pulls eastward some of the unusually warm air over the Western U.S.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A bit of patchy fog may form early this morning over the
interior. Aside from a rogue shower or two, most of the area
should remain on the quiet side through midday. That will quickly
change by afternoon as the ingredients come into place for a
round of numerous showers and storms (70-90%). The 14/18Z REFS
suggests that storms are most likely between 2 PM and 9 PM today,
with north-northeastward storm motions.

You will need to stay aware of the weather today. The entire area
is in a 5-10% SPC Marginal Risk for gusty winds of 50-60 mph and
coin-size hail up to quarters, perhaps slightly larger. AI/ML
convective outlooks support these probabilities.

Convective-allowing ensembles indicate that locally heavy rain is
possible as well, with a 1 in 10 chance of 6-hour tallies reaching
3-4 inches. This is needed rain, but it may fall too quickly,
sparking minor flooding, especially over urban locations. Areal
averages will be lower, generally 1/2" to 1 1/2".

Highs today will be warm again, in the mid-80s, before the storms
get going. Quieter conditions resume overnight, but it will remain
quite balmy.

Monday...

One more day to watch the radar closely for strong storm
development. As the cold front moves into Central Florida
during the afternoon, the environment appears conducive for
more organized bands of showers and storms, some of which may be
strong to severe. AI/ML probabilities for severe hazards range
from 5-15%. Primary hazards remain gusty winds of 50-60 mph, coin-
size hail, and frequent lightning. More unidirectional wind
profiles should limit the overall tornado threat to low/very low,
but it is non-zero. This broken line of storms will likely reach
the Orlando area in the early to mid afternoon before drifting
toward the Treasure Coast by sunset.

Expect a breezy and warm day ahead of the front, with low to mid
80s. A few wind gusts to 30 mph can be anticipated even outside
of any storms.

Remainder of Next Week...

Once the front gets south of here Monday night, cooler air
rushes in. Quite a temperature gradient by daybreak on Tuesday,
with 50s along the Treasure and immediate Space Coasts and 40s
elsewhere. There is a 20-30% chance of reaching the upper 30s over
northern Lake and Volusia counties. Wind chills are likely to dip
into the mid-upper 30s northwest of I-4. High temps on Tuesday
will struggle to reach the low 60s from Orlando northward, with
mid-upper 60s farther south. Aside from a lingering shower along
the Treasure Coast, Tuesday should be dry.

Similarly, cold temperatures are forecast on Wednesday morning over
our northern communities. Winds turn onshore beginning Wednesday,
beginning some modest warming (upper 60s-low 70s). This begins a
timeframe of lower confidence, with the nearby trough potentially
sparking bands of rain over the southern peninsula. Just how
far north the rain gets is in question, but at the very least,
we should see quite a bit of cloudiness. We currently have 20-40%
rain chances on Wednesday from Melbourne southward, expanding to
areas south of I-4 on Thursday.

The area of unsettled weather to our south should begin to move
seaward beginning Friday, leaving only low shower chances along the
immediate coast. Seasonably mild high temps on Friday should warm
into the weekend, as probabilities for high temps of 80 deg F +
reach 60-80% by that time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong cold front will approach the waters, arriving late on
Monday. Ahead of it, winds turn southerly today, then freshen out of
the southwest on Monday. Offshore-moving showers and gusty storms
are forecast for the next two afternoons. Boating conditions will
become poor to hazardous early in the work week. Behind the front,
strong northwest breezes will affect the waters Monday night and
early Tuesday. High pressure then drifts over the Mid-Atlantic by
mid-week as the front stalls over the southern Bahamas.

Seas 3-5 ft through Monday, increasing to 3-6 ft nearshore and 7-9
ft in the Gulf Stream by Tuesday morning. Seas slowly subside by
late Wednesday to 3-6 ft. Depending on the position of a surface
trough near South Florida late next week, seas may become hazardous
again by next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Probs for IFR stratus have increased around 50% for MCO/SFB/LEE
overnight so have inserted these conds 09Z-13Z at those TAF sites.
High coverage of SHRA/TSRA on Sun developing late morning from south
to north. Convection may focus/initiate along sea breeze near the
coast so have added a TEMPO TSRA from SUA-MLB beginning 16Z-17Z but
this may need to be pushed back to later in the aftn. Add`l
convection should focus over MCO/SFB/DAB btwn 20Z-24Z then push off
the coast in the eve. Allowed for some VCSH, even prevailing -RA
VCTS past 00Z but all convection should diminish by midnight. Winds
will have a southeast to south component today, becoming breezy
behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals gusting up to 22 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

There are no fire weather concerns through Monday, but lightning
storms are forecast over the district which may cause new fire
starts. Over the next two days, wetting rains are expected over much
of Central Florida from these scattered storms.

A cold front settles south of the area on Tuesday, delivering drier
air to northern portions of Central Florida. Minimum RH values from
30-40% are forecast from near Orlando and points northward. North
winds from 8-12 mph will make for fire-sensitive conditions. RH
readings should increase modestly beginning Wednesday as winds turn
back onshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  65  83  45 /  80  50  80  30
MCO  85  67  83  48 /  80  50  80  30
MLB  82  66  84  51 /  80  60  80  50
VRB  83  66  85  54 /  80  60  80  50
LEE  85  66  81  45 /  80  50  80  20
SFB  86  66  83  47 /  80  50  80  30
ORL  85  67  83  48 /  90  50  80  30
FPR  83  65  86  53 /  70  60  80  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion