Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

891
FXUS62 KMLB 072322
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
622 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

- Conditions will be favorable for patchy fog development late
  tonight and into early Saturday morning.

- A few strong storms are possible Sunday ahead of a cold front.
  Strong wind gusts will be the primary threat.

- Below normal temperatures with wind chill values in the 30s are
  forecast across east central Florida early next week behind a
  strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Current-Tonight... A few light showers have been observed along
the Treasure Coast, and a low chance (~20%) of showers exists
south and east of the Orlando metro through the remainder of the
afternoon. Mostly quiet into the evening and overnight. Light
winds and dew point depressions nearing zero will be favorable for
patchy fog development into early Saturday morning. Have
introduced a mention of patchy fog north and west of I-4 and along
the Treasure Coast, and further expansions may be needed as
confidence increases in time. Low temperatures mostly fall into
the low to mid 60s, remaining slightly warmer along the coast.

Saturday-Sunday... A surface ridge axis settles south of central
Florida prompting light offshore flow locally. Warm temperatures
hold through the weekend with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s.
A weak sea breeze should remain pinned close to the coast on
Saturday with a slight chance of showers possible, mainly south of
Cape Canaveral. A slight chance (~20%) for thunderstorms is
introduced across the area on Sunday as a cold front approaches
from the northwest, and coverage could increase in future forecast
packages as confidence in CAMs increases. Surface instability
combined with dry air aloft (DCAPE ~ 800-1,000J/kg) and modest
linear shear profiles could allow for a few strong or marginally
severe storms with gusty winds as the primary threat. Low
temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s Saturday morning
increase into the mid to upper 60s Sunday morning.

Sunday Night-Thursday... The pattern shifts much colder into next
week as a cold front passes central Florida Sunday night into
Monday. Increasing northerly winds (10-15 mph) on Monday will
cool temperatures into the 60s for portions of northern Brevard
and Osceola counties northward while areas further south hold in
the 70s Monday afternoon. Tuesday will be the coldest morning of
the period with low temperatures spreading the upper 30s and low
40s across much of the interior and low to mid 40s along the
coast. A few areas of northern Lake and northwest Volusia
counties may even fall into the mid 30s. Continued northerly winds
into Tuesday morning will push wind chill values into the low to
mid 30s for much of east central Florida. Highs top out in the 60s
on Tuesday. High pressure then builds mid to late week, gradually
increasing afternoon temperatures through the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

High pressure south of the local waters will keep offshore winds in
place this weekend, although southerly shifts are forecast as the
afternoon sea breeze develops. Winds and seas deteriorate Monday
behind a strong cold front passage. Northeast winds increase to 20-
25 kts Monday, further increasing to 25-30 kts early Tuesday
morning. In response, sea build, peaking 6-8 ft nearshore and 8-11
ft offshore Tuesday. Favorable boating returns mid to late week as
high pressure builds across the local waters. Scattered showers are
forecast with the front Sunday night into Monday. Otherwise, mostly
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 622 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Couple challenges with the TAF forecast which incur lower
confidence. First is the potential for fog development overnight
at a few of the terminals. Guidance generally shows low spatial
probabilities of fog, but this is also being hindered by the lack
of agreement of where it may form. For now, added a few MVFR
TEMPOs where signal was slightly stronger. Categorical
restrictions will not be included in this MCO TAF, but trends
will be monitored. Second, there is some potential for showers on
Saturday afternoon, but again, there is little agreement among
forecast models at this time. Will withhold VCSH. Light/VRB winds
becoming SW up to 10 KT on Saturday, shifting onshore MLB
southward by mid/late afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

While soils may still be saturated from recent October rainfall,
fire sensitivities are forecast to increase next week behind a
strong cold front. Northerly winds increase to 10-15 mph Monday
and Tuesday, advecting a much drier airmass into east central
Florida. Sensitive minRH values build across portions of the
interior Monday (35-45%) and especially on Tuesday (30-40%). Winds
lighten Wednesday while RH remains sensitive into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  83  66  83 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  66  86  67  86 /  10  10   0  20
MLB  66  84  68  85 /  10  20   0  10
VRB  66  86  68  86 /  10  20   0  10
LEE  64  85  66  83 /   0  10   0  20
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10   0  20
ORL  66  86  68  84 /  10  10   0  20
FPR  66  86  67  86 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion