Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

168
FXUS62 KMLB 101100
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
700 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Trending drier today, but isolated to widely scattered showers
  possible. Lightning storms and additional flooding are not
  expected.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions to last through the
  upcoming weekend, including life-threatening rip currents, even
  as surf appears to improve.

- A warm and dry work week is on tap as high pressure builds over
  East Central Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Center of high pressure and much drier air over
the eastern seaboard sinks south closer to Florida, loosening the
pressure gradient some and reducing rain chances. While onshore
(northeast) winds will be more relaxed compared to previous days,
will still see some gusts to around 30 mph along the coast and 25
mph inland in the afternoon from sea breeze enhancement. PWATs
ranging from around 0.75" (below the 25th percentile) up north to
1.25" (near the 75th percentile) down south gradually decrease
through the day. Isolated showers remain possible (PoPs 20%) from
the Cape south throughout the day and night in the higher
moisture, and the marine layer will be deep enough to support
isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs also 20%) further north but
mainly limited to the afternoon and evening that could push as
far inland as the Orlando Metro. Very dry air in the mid-levels
will limit deep convection. Lightning storms are not expected, and
while some heavier downpours will be possible, quick motion to
the southwest will limit flooding potential. Warmer today thanks
to the lower rain chances and reduced cloud cover, with afternoon
highs picking up to the U70s-L80s. Lows tonight in the U50s-U60s.

The Weekend...While overall the weather will have become much more
pleasant, poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions will
continue. Surf will appear less rough and more inviting, but life-
threatening rip currents will remain present and entering the
water at the beaches is not advised. High pressure over the
eastern seaboard and western Atlantic is reinforced by additional
surface high pressure from the northern US, and ridging aloft
building over the Gulf. The ridge axis gradually sinks closer to
ECFL, but remains north of the area continuing gentle to moderate
onshore (northeast to east) flow, again becoming gusty in the
afternoons once the sea breeze develops. Forecast currently calls
for rain chances to decrease to 10% or less across the area as
PWATs drop to less than 1" (generally below the 25th percentile),
but can`t completely rule out a few showers forming over the
Atlantic waters moving onshore. Afternoon highs ticking up a
degree or two each day, but still in the U70s-L80s. Same with
overnight lows, warming a bit but remaining in U50s-L60s.

Next Week...Surface high pressure moves offshore into the
subtropical Atlantic, but remains in control of local conditions
through most of the week as the ridge axis stays anchored over
North Florida. A dome of ridging aloft continues to build over the
Gulf and Florida through mid-week in response to a deepening
trough over the western US, before flattening late in the week as
the trough shifts eastward. The surface ridge axis drops south a
bit towards Central Florida late in the week and next weekend in
response to the trough and an associated surface front, both
likely falling short and remaining north of the area unless
better forcing than currently forecast can be found. Between the
very dry air (PWATs remaining below 1"), lighter onshore flow, and
subsidence, very low (10% or less) rain chances and gradual
warming will continue through most of next week. Afternoon highs
tick up from the U70s-M80s Monday to the L-U80s (near to slightly
above normal), possibly flirting with the L90s well inland (well
above normal) by Friday. Overnight lows above normal in the 60s.
Could see some low rain chances return late in the week if the
ridge axis drops far enough south to turn flow southeasterly and
deliver higher moisture.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions, particularly seas in
the Gulf Stream, will persist across the Central Florida Atlantic
waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient loosens some as
the ridge axis of high pressure over the eastern seaboard and
western Atlantic shift south towards Florida, allowing winds from
the northeast to east to diminish some to 10-20 kts with higher
gusts. Seas slowly subside from 7-11 ft early this morning to 5-8
ft early Saturday morning, and 4-7 ft early Sunday morning, then
rebound to 5-8 ft Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic waters through 6 AM
Saturday morning, and continues for all Gulf Stream segments
including nearshore Brevard and the Treasure Coast through 8 AM
Monday. Small craft should continue to exercise caution in the
Volusia nearshore waters after the Advisory expires. Rain chances
decrease as drier air moves in, but the marine layer will remain
sufficiently deep to support isolated to widely scattered showers
through at least Saturday. However, lightning storms are not
expected.

Monday-Tuesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions linger into
Monday. High pressure shifts into the subtropical Atlantic while
the ridge axis remains anchored over North Florida, allowing the
pressure gradient to further loosen and ease easterly winds a bit
more to mostly 5-15 kts, but occasionally pushing towards 15-20
kts south of the Cape. Seas up to 7 in portions of the Gulf Stream
and up to 6 ft closer to shore south of the Cape could linger into
part of the day Monday before finally subsiding to 3-5 ft Tuesday
morning. Mostly dry conditions forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An area of stratus has developed near KLEE early this morning and
may continue to produce IFR/LIFR cigs through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are generally favored to continue through today and into
tonight. Isolated onshore moving showers may lead to brief cig/vis
reductions, but coverage too low (rain chances ~20%) to include any
TEMPO groups for this activity. Have continued to limit any mention
to VCSH in the TAFs for now. E/NE winds become breezy/gusty (12-15
knots, gusts to 20-25 knots) again today before diminishing after
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  63  78  63 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  79  62  80  63 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  77  65  78  67 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  78  65  78  65 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  80  60  82  60 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  79  60  81  61 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  79  62  81  62 /  20  10   0   0
FPR  78  64  78  64 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion