








National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
288 FXUS62 KMLB 272020 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Rain and storm chances increase through the remainder of today, continuing through Saturday as a front approaches the Florida peninsula. - A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather is forecast on Saturday southward of Kissimmee and Cape Canaveral; lightning strikes, wind gusts, and hail will all be possible with storm activity. - Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters behind the front. - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the extended period, though isolated onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out from Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Current-Saturday...Prevailing southwesterly flow has resulted in advection of warm, moist air across east central Florida this afternoon, with some mid and upper level energy supporting the development of showers across the Gulf. These showers are currently moving eastward across the Florida peninsula and have began creeping into Lake County, with coverage of showers anticipated to increase through the remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, interacting with the eastward-moving activity. Rain chances are forecast to remain high (60-80%) into the overnight hours and Saturday as a cold front draped across the southeastern US moves closer towards the peninsula. Shower development will then primarily be frontal-driven into Saturday, though the east coast sea breeze will also act to enhance activity tomorrow afternoon. While the rain is more than welcome across the drought-stricken Florida peninsula, widespread rainfall totals of 0.5-1" will not help much with drought concerns. Localized higher amounts exceeding 1" cannot be ruled out in some locations. In addition to increasing shower coverage, there is also support for isolated to scattered storms this evening and again on Saturday. Modest instability across east central Florida (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) combined with modest low-level lapse rates and 500 mb temperatures ranging from -12 to -11C will support the development of isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, especially given a weak wave of energy in the mid-levels and the intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. With the modest instability and various lifting mechanisms present, lightning will be possible with activity, and there have already been a couple of strikes across east central Florida this afternoon. Drier air in the mid- levels has led to an uptick in DCAPE values (700-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, which means gusts to 50 mph will be possible with the storms that are able to intrude into the dry layer and mix downward. This will become less of an issue late tonight as the column continues to moisten overnight and DCAPE decreases. In addition to the winds, the cold temperatures aloft support a low chance for some small hail with the strongest storms. Boundary interactions between outflow boundaries and the east coast sea breeze could also lead to brief spin-up or two, though confidence in this remains low. By Saturday, the approaching frontal boundary will provide the main source of forcing for storm development, with additional support coming from the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon, especially across the southern portions of east central Florida. MUCAPE values jump to 1000-1500 J/kg across most of east central Florida tomorrow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates will support the potential for deeper convection. DCAPE values remain around 600-800 J/kg, and there is also a noted increase in the mid-level winds with the closer arrival of the mid-level trough overhead. This will support the potential for stronger wind gusts with storm activity. 500 mb temperatures continue to cool, with modeled soundings indicating values falling to -14 to -13C. All of these factors combined with guidance hinting at a decent chance for frontal and east coast sea breeze interactions has prompted SPC to highlight areas southward of Kissimmee and Cape Canaveral in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storm development. The primary hazards with storm development tomorrow will include frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a low chance for hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Boundary interactions will also need to be monitored for brief, weak spin ups, especially down south where interactions with the sea breeze occur. Activity will generally move offshore into the overnight hours on Saturday, diminishing from north to south as the front slowly shifts southward Saturday night. Afternoon temperatures today continue to remain on track to reach the 80s areawide, falling into the 60s tonight. Saturday, the temperature gradient tightens with the approach of the front from north to south, with highs ranging from the low 70s across Volusia and northern Lake to the low 80s across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Lows Saturday night will be closer to normal behind the front, falling into the 50s nearly areawide. Sunday-Friday...Sunday acts as a transition period for the mid- levels, as a broad trough shifts offshore and allows for a gradual build of ridging through next week. At the surface, northeast winds on Sunday become more onshore into Monday as an area of surface high pressure strengthens to the north, with winds remaining onshore through most of the upcoming week. This onshore flow in combination with a weak stalled boundary to the north of east central Florida is forecast to favor the development of some isolated to scattered shower activity across the local Atlantic waters, with a low chance (20-30%) for some onshore-moving showers each afternoon from Monday onward. At this time, there is low confidence in any storm activity with these showers, but trends will continue to be closely monitored. Temperatures across east central Florida are anticipated to gradually warm through the extended period as the high sets up to the north, keeping afternoon highs and overnight near to above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Increasing moisture and the gradual approach of a cold front will lead to increasing rain and storm chances across the local Atlantic waters tonight through Saturday. Rain chances range from 60-80% with a 20-30% chance for storm development. Any storms that manage to develop may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots and even small hail. Additionally, brief spin-ups cannot be entirely ruled out, especially where storms interact with the east coast sea breeze, though confidence remains lower on this. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 4 feet through Saturday, with northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots. By Sunday, the front is anticipated to sink south of the area, resulting in slightly drier conditions. High pressure develops just to the north of the local waters, with onshore winds developing on Monday and persisting through much of next week. Light, isolated onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out across the waters, and a 20-40% chance of rain is forecast through much of the extended forecast. Wind speeds increase to 15 to 25 knots late Monday through at least Wednesday and seas respond by building to 5 to 9 feet, continuing through late next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed across all legs of the local Atlantic waters due to the poor to hazardous boating conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Scattered SHRA moving east from the Gulf will develop into TSRA across northern terminals, incl MCO/SFB/DAB, late this afternoon into early eve. The east coast sea breeze has formed along the Treasure coast and will produce a wind shift at MLB-SUA by 19-20Z. Add`l SHRA/TSRA should affect southern terminals as a result of sea breeze convergence and this activity should linger longer into the night. May need to add another TEMPO group for some of the southern terminals after 01Z. A north wind shift will reach DAB/LEE assocd with a cold front by 12Z and slowly settle southward during Sat. Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs will develop aft 05Z across northern terminals and persist through at least 15Z. Another round of TSRA is forecast Sat aftn along and south of the front with isolated strong to severe storms south of MCO. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Despite increasing moisture, sensitive fire weather conditions persist across east central Florida today into Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers are forecast across the area this afternoon through Saturday as the result of an approaching cold front. In addition to showers, there is a low chance (20-30%) of storm development across east central Florida this afternoon through Saturday. Any storms that manage to develop may be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, which could result in new fires across east central Florida. In addition to the lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out, which could lead to greater fire spread for new and even existing fires. Due to these factors, the Significant Fire Potential threat remains moderate for today and high into Saturday. The front moves south of the area by early Sunday, with minimal fire weather concerns aside from the ongoing drought conditions. Winds become more onshore by the start of the work week, with enhancements each afternoon due to the east coast sea breeze causing wind speeds to reach 10 to 15 mph. Isolated onshore-moving showers possible through the extended forecast most afternoons. Minimum RH values remain below critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 71 55 73 / 80 50 20 10 MCO 64 76 59 77 / 80 60 20 10 MLB 61 76 59 75 / 80 60 40 20 VRB 61 79 60 76 / 70 60 50 20 LEE 61 76 55 78 / 80 60 10 10 SFB 61 75 56 76 / 80 60 20 10 ORL 63 76 58 77 / 80 60 20 10 FPR 61 79 59 77 / 70 60 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Kelly
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Tonight![]() Slight Chance T-storms then Mostly Cloudy |
Saturday![]() Partly Sunny then Chance Showers |
Saturday Night ![]() Chance Showers |
Sunday![]() Chance Showers then Chance T-storms |
Sunday Night ![]() Chance Showers |
| Lo 71 °F | Hi 80 °F | Lo 70 °F | Hi 78 °F | Lo 71 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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