Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

061
FXUS62 KMLB 121144
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
644 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Patchy to areas of (dense) fog and low stratus clouds may
  promote traveling concerns early this morning and again Friday
  morning. This may produce localized visibilities of a half-mile
  or less. When encountering fog, slow down, increase following
  distance, and use low-beam headlights.

- Small precip chances enter the picture today, though any amounts
  will be light. Higher chances and a few lightning storms
  return to the forecast Sunday-Sunday night with the approach of
  a stronger low pressure system.

- Generally above normal temperatures continue this week and into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Current-Tonight...Will monitor patchy to areas of (dense) fog
potential and low stratus cloud development early in the period.
Won`t rule out a Dense Fog Advisory (DF.A) later this morning.
Anything that develops should gradually burn- off/dissipate
through mid to late morning, though we will retain considerably to
mostly cloudy skies for much of ECFL through the day; only
exception possibly for Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast
that may have the best opportunities for any decent breaks in
cloud-cover. A weak frontal boundary will sag into ECFL during the
day, with PWATs only increasing to around 1.10-1.15". Latest
model guidance continues to suggest a low PoP across the area
mainly in the afternoon/early evening with 20-30pct chances. Any
precip amounts likely small. A low to medium (20-30pct) threat
continues mainly along the Space/Treasure coasts thru late
evening.

Light morning westerly winds will veer to northwest 8-12 mph by
afternoon and possibly even to N/NNE across Volusia County ahead of
sunset. There may even be a short-lived sea breeze (onshore
component of winds) along the Space/Treasure coasts late in the day.
Winds tonight decrease back to light NWRLY for most.

Chilliest today along the Volusia and north Brevard coasts where
highs will struggle into the U60s to L70s. Expect M70s for maxes
along the immediate coast and further into the interior, except
south of Orlando/W of I-95 where U70s are likely and a few 80 degree
readings near Lake Okee. Lows mainly in the L-M50s, perhaps a few
U50s around major metropolitan areas and for barrier islands. We may
see a return to overnight/early morning patchy (dense) fog potential.

Fri-Sat...The aforementioned front becomes more diffuse into late
Fri/Sat across south-central FL and the adjacent coastal waters.
Moisture (PWATs 0.90-1.10") continues to be meager at best. Models
have cut back on mentionable precip potential (~10%) for Fri,
though cannot rule out an ISOLD sprinkle/brief shower along the
Treasure Coast. A slim light precip threat continues on Sat (aftn)
along the Space/Treasure coasts with a small onshore-moving
potential. Again, if any measurable rain falls, it will be light.
Light morning northerly winds on Fri gradually transitioning
onshore (NE) 7-12 mph into the afternoon. Light onshore flow
continues into Sat, with directional component continuing to veer
to E/SE.

Highs on Fri/Sat in the L-M70s along the coast, with interior
locales realizing M-U70s. Lows continue mainly in the 50s, but
perhaps some U40s around Lake George on Sat morning. Perhaps a few
L60s across ECFL for Sat overnight/Sun morning.

Sun-Wed...Medium range models are very slowly trying to come into
better agreement, though the ECMWF continues to offer a faster
solution compared to the GFS. In the mid-levels, a vigorous trough
east of the Ark/La/Tex region, early in the period will continue
to track eastward thru early Mon morning. The ECMWF has this
trough along the southeast U.S. coast by 12Z Mon; whereas the GFS
has it across the FL Panhandle/north FL - lagging behind. This is
still creating issues with timing of the next surface cold front
into/through ECFL. The ECMWF brings the boundary thru ECFL late
Sun overnight into early Mon morning and the GFS still during the
day on Mon. We continue with a broad-brush of PoP chances Sun
(30-60pct), Sun night (60-80pct), and Mon (30-40pct). We still
should be able to better align timing with consistency in future
model runs and as time draws near. We continue to carry a low-
medium (20-30pct) chance for lightning storms Sun afternoon-Mon.

In spite of timing of clouds/precip on Sun ahead of the next
approaching cold front, temperatures still expected to spike in the
U70s along the coast and L80s inland, thanks in part to southerly
flow. Highs generally in the 70s areawide on Mon/Tue; perhaps some
80 degree readings towards Lake Okee. A quick return to U70s along
the coast and L80s interior by Wed. Lows in the U50s to L60s Mon
morning, and 50s for Tue/Wed/Thu mornings.

Breezy and gusty southerly winds ahead of the front on Sun will
decrease and turn northwest/north behind the front on Mon/Tue and
possibly light onshore again by Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary will settle south across the
local waters. This feature will turn winds NW/N. Initial wind speeds
15-20 kts well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet early in the period
will gradually decrease to 10-15 kts during the day. Northerly winds
generally 6-12 kts tonight. Seas initially 2-4 ft, except up to 5 ft
well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet will continue to subside to 2-
4 ft areawide during the day and through tonight. Long period swells
continue to slowly back down. ISOLD-SCT shower chances developing -
highest potential over the Gulf Stream.

Fri-Mon...The aforementioned weak frontal boundary settles across
the south-central peninsula becoming quasi-stationary and gradually
decaying through Fri/Sat. The ISOLD-SCT shower chances continue
through Sat night, nearly areawide. A stronger low pressure system
(still model differences in timing) moves across the local waters
late Sun into Mon of next week. Shower chances increase to SCT/NMRS
thru the day on Sun, increasing to NMRS-WDSP Sun night, and back to
SCT on Mon (post-frontal). There will be an ISOLD-SCT (20-30pct)
lightning storm threat also present Sun aftn-Mon.

Winds Fri-Fri night transition onshore (NE/E) 7-14 kts, continuing
E/SE into Sat. Sat overnight winds continue to veer to SE/SSE
increasing a bit to 12-19 kts. On Sun, southerly winds continue to
strengthen 15-25 kts, SWRLY Sun night, depending on timing/strength
of the next system. Winds could approach 25-30 kts well offshore
with at least occasional gusts to Gale Force. Winds turn W/NW, post-
frontal, and diminish.

Seas continue mainly 2-4 ft into early Sun, then begin to build 4-6
ft (perhaps 7 ft well offshore) in response to the increasing winds
on Sun, and maybe a little higher into Sun night. Seas will slowly
subside in response to the decreasing winds behind the front on
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 644 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low stratus and fog continues to spread east central Florida this
morning, bringing impacts to most terminals. Models continue to
hint that IFR/LIFR impacts should recede around 15Z with
conditions then quickly improving through MVFR. Although clouds
should generally stick around into the afternoon, current forecast
trends show CIGs lifting above VFR by 17Z. West winds around 5
kts shift northwest around 8-10 kts as a cold front sinks into
east central Florida. Winds then briefly shift north-northeast
late in the day. Low coverage of isolated showers (20-30%) is
forecast across northern portions of central Florida this
afternoon with VCSH mentioned from MCO/ISM northward. Conditions
remain favorable for another round of fog late tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low cloud ceilings are anticipated this morning. Improvement in
ceilings may take through the morning or early afternoon to
recover. A weak frontal boundary will drop south across north-
central FL today, before stalling and becoming diffuse over south-
central FL into late week. Winds will turn northwest to north at
7-12 mph during the day, before veering northeast on Friday, and
east to southeast on Saturday. Light rain chances (20-30%) return
to the forecast today and perhaps along the Brevard/Treasure
coasts on Saturday. Chances will increase steadily during the
day/evening on Sunday into at least early Mon. Any precip amounts
through Saturday are expected to be light.

Min RH values are forecast to remain above critical through the
extended. Smoke dispersion will become Fair to Generally Good today
and Friday, and Generally Good to Very Good on Saturday. Excellent
dispersion is likely on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and
southerly winds become breezy/gusty.

A stronger storm system with deeper moisture moves toward east
central FL on Sunday thru early Monday. Timing issues still exist,
but medium to high shower chances (40-80%) and a low to medium
chance for lightning storms (20-30%) accompany its passing late this
weekend into early next week.

Fog Potential...Patchy to areas of fog are forecast early this
morning and possibly, once again, late tonight into Friday morning.
This may produce localized visibilities of a half-mile or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  52  71  54 /  20  10  10   0
MCO  76  56  76  56 /  30  10  10   0
MLB  74  54  73  57 /  20  30  10  10
VRB  76  55  74  58 /  20  30  10  10
LEE  75  53  75  53 /  30   0  10   0
SFB  75  54  76  54 /  30  10  10   0
ORL  75  56  76  56 /  30  10  10   0
FPR  77  53  74  57 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-144.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion