Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

395
FXUS62 KMLB 161625
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1225 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- High pressure remaining in place will support dry and warming
  conditions across east central Florida through this weekend,
  with some portions of the interior nearing record highs.

- A cold front passage late Sunday through Monday will be followed
  by increasing winds and seas behind the front, with hazardous
  boating conditions likely returning early next week.

- A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida beaches today; entering the ocean is not advised! A
  return of poor to hazardous beach conditions is likely early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure at the surface combined with strong
ridging aloft will maintain dry conditions across east central
Florida once again today. This setup at the surface and aloft will
support continued heating across east central Florida, with
afternoon highs forecast to reach the low 80s along the coast and
the mid to upper 80s across the interior. The ridge axis itself is
anticipated to remain draped just north of east central Florida,
causing winds to take on more of an east-southeast orientation.
Winds will be enhanced this afternoon with the development of the
east coast sea breeze and its push inland, with wind speeds
reaching 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds and the greatest
potential for wind gusts will remain focused along the coast.
Winds wane into the overnight hours and become light and variable,
with overnight temperatures falling into the upper 50s to low
60s. There is a chance for patchy fog development late tonight,
but confidence in this remains low.

At the beaches, lingering swells and onshore winds will create a
high risk of rip currents along the east central Florida coast
today. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

Friday-Sunday...The current weather set-up with high pressure
both at the surface and aloft will remain in place through the
remainder of this week and through the weekend. The warming trend
is anticipated to continue, with highs climbing into the mid 80s
and low 90s nearly areawide across east central Florida. Afternoon
high records could also be broken this weekend, especially at
some of the interior climate sites (Leesburg and Orlando).
Overnight lows will also trend warmer than normal, reaching the
mid to upper 60s. Outside of the warming temperatures across east
central Florida, the weather will remain dry with winds becoming
easterly each afternoon through Saturday as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland. By Sunday, winds are anticipated
to become more westerly out ahead of a cold front that will move
southward across the peninsula Sunday night into Monday.

Monday-Wednesday...A cold front drifts southward across the
Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning, with a low
chance (20-30%) of showers and storms forecast primarily from the
Cape to Orlando and southward on Monday afternoon. High pressure
then reestablishes itself across the western Atlantic and across
the Florida peninsula by Tuesday, persisting into the middle of
next week. A return of diurnally-driven showers looks possible
starting on Wednesday, though confidence in this remains low at
this time and there is only a 20% mention of showers at this time.

Behind the front, a strong pressure gradient is anticipated to
occur due to the placement of the high pressure relative to the
location of the frontal boundary. This will result in increasing
northeast winds behind the front that will spread southward across
the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters Monday into
Tuesday. The pressure gradient is anticipated to weaken by
Wednesday, with predominantly easterly flow areawide. This rapid
increase in winds will result in building seas, which will also
likely translate into deteriorating beach conditions once again
along the east central Florida coast.

Temperatures are forecast to cool behind the front as the dry air
settles southward across the peninsula, with afternoon highs and
overnight lows falling slightly below normal values. It will be
short-lived, however, as the return of high pressure will support
a gradual warming trend across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend as high
pressure remains in place. Onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots will
continue across the waters along with seas of 2 to 4 feet. There
are no rain chances forecast through Sunday afternoon. By Sunday
evening, a cold front is anticipated to move towards the local
waters, drifting southward across the area into Monday. There is a
low chance for showers and storms out ahead of and along the cold
front. Behind the cold front, a rapidly tightening pressure
gradient will result in increasing winds, with northeast winds
anticipated to reach 20 to 30 knots Sunday night and continuing
into Tuesday. Seas respond by building to 6 to 10 feet, with the
highest waves focused across the offshore waters. Hazardous
boating conditions will likely warrant the issuance of a Small
Craft Advisory at some point late this weekend into early next
week. Winds subside into the middle of next week along with a
return of generally favorable boating conditions as seas subside.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Favorable flying conditions continue. VFR prevails with lt/vrb
winds becoming E/SE in the afternoon with the seabreeze, up to 12
kt. Low potential for fog at interior terminals tonight, will
monitor and AMD if signal gets stronger in subsequent TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure will remain in place across the Florida peninsula,
keeping conditions dry through the end of this week and into the
weekend with a warming trend also anticipated to continue. The dry
air mass will lead to minimum RH values falling below critical
thresholds across the interior west of I-95 each afternoon, with
minimum RH values forecast to remain above thresholds along the
coast. Onshore winds will develop each afternoon as the east coast
sea breeze forms and moves inland, enhancing winds to 10 to 15
mph with the strongest winds focused along the coast. Sensitive
fire weather conditions are forecast across east central Florida
through at least Sunday. By Sunday night and into Monday, a weak
front is forecast to move southward across the peninsula,
resulting in increasing moisture and a return of low rain chances
(20-30%). Winds are anticipated to increase out of the northeast
behind the front, which could lead to control concerns into early
next week. Practice fire safety to avoid starting wildfires, such
as properly discarding cigarettes and avoiding outdoor burning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  83  66  84 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  62  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  61  89  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  89  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  83  65  85 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion