Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

497
FXUS62 KMLB 231828
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
228 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Thunderstorm chances peak at 40-60% over the interior each
  afternoon and evening through Sunday, with slightly lesser
  chances into Memorial Day. Storms will be capable of producing
  40-50 mph wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
  strikes, and localized 3"+ rainfall tallies.

- The risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high this
  weekend at all central FL Atlc beaches. Swimming in the ocean
  is strongly discouraged.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues through early next week
  as temperatures remain somewhat warmer than normal and
  conditions humid. Remain well hydrated and seek breaks in the
  shade or A/C if you begin to feel unwell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

This Weekend...Afternoon highs again in the U80s to around 90F at
the coast with 90F to L90s inland, with peak heat indices generally
in the U90s to L100s. Surface high pressure ridging remains situated
across the western Atlc north of ECFL allowing for a continued
ESE/SE flow. ESE winds, again, 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph
(esp behind local sea breeze) will become light during the evening
and overnight periods. ISOLD-WDLY SCT (20-30%) showers and ISOLD
lightning storms developing along the sea breeze across coastal
counties will continue to move inland each afternoon/evening with
coverage and intensity (40-60%) of storms increasing. Activity
over the interior will gradually decrease thru mid/late evening
with debris rainfall/cloud-cover also diminishing late evening
and overnight. Primary storm impacts include wind gusts 40-50 mph
locally, frequent lightning strikes, and prolific rainfall rates
for a short period of time.

Will still see additional SCT shower/ISOLD storm activity across the
adjacent coastal waters overnight, some of which may affect coastal
locales. Overnight lows remain above normal in the 70s with
conditions humid.

A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
continues thru the holiday weekend at ALL central FL Atlc beaches.
Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly discouraged.

Memorial Day-Tue...The aforementioned surface ridge axis does slide
further southward, but still remains north of ECFL. Aloft, mid-level
ridging keeps a tight grip over the immediate western Atlc and FL
peninsula. Drier air and subsidence will infiltrate the area early
Mon thru Tue, with decreasing diurnal shower and storm chances, 20-
30% Mon and possibly remaining dry altogether for coastal counties;
then 20-40% on Tue. Temperatures will continue just above climo,
especially at night on the coast due to the onshore breezes. SERLY
wind flow continues at the surface for winds.

Wed-Sat...Mid-level ridging weakens and slides further seaward thru
mid-week as an unsettled weather pattern develops. Troughing aloft
across the region will encompass much of this period with
shortwave troughs/impulses traversing central FL providing aid
to convection. Deeper moisture will again surge across the FL
peninsula. Surface high pressure ridging will weaken and slide
further south/east into the wrn Atlc. SE/S flow becomes offshore
by Fri and southerly on Sat. PoPs 60-70% on Wed/Thu increase
slightly again to 70-80% for Fri/Sat. Some locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with repeated rounds of precip for some. Storm
steering will direct storms toward the east coast and out across
the local Atlc waters late week.

Increasing cloud-cover from deepening moisture and rainfall
potential should cut into high temperatures, with widespread highs
in the M-U80s to around 90F. Lows continue warm in the 70s with
conditions remaining humid at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

High pressure ridging remains north of the local waters thru early
next week, though it does begin to slide slowly southward and weaken
into mid-week. Prevailing onshore winds during the period with
speeds at least 10-15 kts, but periods of 15-18 kts - perhaps up to
20 kts as the pgrad tightens later this weekend and early next
week, esp late day/night periods leading to short stints for poor
boating conditions. The ECSB develops with some enhancement near
the coast behind it daily as it pushes well inland with generally
no push- back of storms to the coast. Isolated to scattered
showers (ISOLD lightning storms) are forecast, with higher
coverage beginning on Wed and further into the extended. Seas 3-4
ft through early next week, except up to 5 ft well offshore during
times of wind surges and locally higher invof storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions outside of convection. East coast sea breeze
a little less active than expected and have adjusted VCTS/VCSH
timing based on current trends. However, confidence has increased
a bit for TSRA impacts at KMCO/KISM starting around 22Z, and have
replaced PROB30 with TEMPOs. No other significant changes to
TAFs. TSRA developing along/behind the sea breeze as it moves
inland looks to remain mainly ISO until around 20Z, the coverage
increases to ISO-SCT. Sea breeze collision INVOF of KLEE after 23Z
expected to produce SCT-WIDE TSRA/SHRA which could drift back
towards ECFL terminals, and impacts could linger as late as 06Z
before clearing. Chances for onshore moving SHRA and possibly a
couple TS return from the overnight into Sunday morning. Initial
cu-field Sunday 14Z-16Z could be MVFR at times. Higher than normal
chances/ coverage of afternoon SHRA/TSRA expected again Sunday.
SE-ESE winds increase to 7-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts, up
to around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts from KMLB-KSUA this
afternoon, then diminish to 5-10 kts becoming light/VRB inland at
time overnight. Winds pick back up to 7-13 kts with higher gusts
again Sunday morning, remaining out of the SE-ESE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  76  88 /  30  40  10  20
MCO  74  89  74  90 /  40  60  10  30
MLB  79  88  79  88 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  78  88  79  89 /  10  30  10  10
LEE  75  90  75  91 /  60  60  30  40
SFB  75  90  75  91 /  40  60  10  30
ORL  75  89  75  90 /  40  60  10  30
FPR  78  88  78  88 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion