Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

204
FXUS62 KMLB 230555
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Thunderstorm chances peak at 40-60% over the interior each
  afternoon and evening through Memorial Day Weekend. Storms will
  be capable of producing 40-50 mph wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-
  ground lightning strikes, and localized 3"+ rainfall tallies.

- The risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high today at
  all Atlantic beaches of east central Florida. Swimming in the
  ocean is not advised.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues through early next week
  as temperatures remain somewhat warmer than normal. Remain well
  hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C if you begin to
  feel unwell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Persistence is key to the broader pattern over the Southeast
U.S. this morning. Deep-layer ridging is anchored over the W
Atlantic, its reservoir of above-normal H5 heights extending from
the Caribbean Sea to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the Bermuda
High projects its axis westward toward the I-10 corridor. Moderate
southeast flow continues in the boundary layer over the Florida
Peninsula. PW values are slightly above normal.

Strong agreement within the 22/12Z ensemble suite supports a
high-confidence forecast for a few more days. No significant changes
to this setup are expected through at least Monday or Tuesday. The
active storm track, driven by a branch of the subtropical jet,
will emanate from Texas into the Appalachians. Mid-level ridging
near the Turks and Caicos is expected to strengthen, with its
influence maximized over the district on Monday and/or Tuesday.
Locally, deep convection will be focused on the advancing, yet
diffuse, Atlantic sea breeze and its eventual interaction with the
Gulf breeze in the evenings.

By the middle of next week, cluster analysis reveals considerable
agreement that an omega block will form over the mid-latitudes
of N America. A trough over the Northeast U.S. and additional
subtropical jet stream energy entering the lower Mississippi Valley
should work in tandem to weaken the ridge over the state and push
its surface axis toward South Florida. Ahead of the subtropical
feature, moisture anomalies turn sharply positive over the state.
Finally, the signal of high-altitude divergence and upward motion
currently over the S Plains is likely to shift over Florida by
late next week or weekend. Confidence is growing that multiple
rounds of unsettled weather will occur in the last few days of
May.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Sunday...

Continued warm and muggy for the weekend, with ample moisture to
get a few showers and storms to flare up on the diffuse east coast
sea breeze by afternoon and evening. This activity will slowly
focus farther into the interior before a collision favoring the
Mid-Florida Ridge (Lake/Polk) and points westward in the early
evening hours. Rain coverage from 20-30% on the coast increases to
50-60% west of Orlando both days. With the atmosphere uncapped,
there will be moderate instability but weak/negligible shear to
work with. Garden-variety storm hazards are expected, with a few
wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and prolific rainfall
rates for a short period of time. At the immediate coast, a few
showers are possible during the overnight and morning hours.

Aside from the storm chances, our eyes will be on the thermometer as
day and nighttime temps hold just above normal. Widespread Moderate
HeatRisk will exist, with those warmer overnight locations along
the coast and lakes having a 50-70% chance of Major HeatRisk. Seek
shade or A/C if you begin to feel unwell.

A High Risk of numerous life-threatening rip currents persists at
our Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the surf.

Memorial Day - Tuesday...

As the nearby ridge flexes its muscles one last time, somewhat drier
air and subsidence should squelch rain and storm chances early in
the week. Coastal locations look nearly rain-free, with interior
rain/storm chances lessened to 20-40%. Temperatures should continue
to run just above normal, especially at night on the coast due to
the onshore breezes.

Wednesday - next Saturday...

As mentioned in the overview, a transition to more active weather is
expected for the latter half of next week. The increasing moisture
alone is enough to enhance rain and storm chances, but when
you combine that with potential offshore flow and at least broad
ascent due to nearby disturbances, confidence only grows. In fact,
daily rain chances have trended up to 60-70% on Wed/Thu and 70-80%
by next Fri/Sat. Statistical guidance shows a 20-40% chance of 2"
rainfall between Thursday and Saturday, with a 10-20% chance of
exceeding 3 inches. The convective nature will support locally
higher amounts, which should be good for the ongoing drought as
long as it doesn`t come all at once. It`ll take a couple more days
before the full picture becomes clear, but the bottom line is
that you should expect to dodge more rain and storms late next
week than what we`ve been used to lately.

Increasing cloud cover and rainfall potential should cut into high
temperatures, with those lower 90s traded in for mid-upper 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

High pressure remains situated over the Western Atlantic, its
axis extending toward the Florida Panhandle today. This ensures
continued moderate southeasterly flow over the local waters through
the Memorial Day Weekend. Occasionally, fresh breezes are expected
in the Gulf Stream, with some daily enhancement near the coast
behind the daily sea breeze. No significant changes are expected
to prevailing conditions through at least Tuesday. A few showers
and lightning storms will remain possible, though coverage should
be relatively low.

SE breezes 10-15 kt today, and then 12-18 kt from Sunday through
early next week. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore, up to 5 ft well offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

A few Atlc showers may brush coastal terminals through 14Z but most
will remain dry. A little higher moisture today should spark ISOLD-
SCT SHRA along the sea breeze as it develops and pushes inland later
this morning into this afternoon. Sea breeze collision is forecast
to be near or over Lake county late in the day, a little farther
east than previous days. With impacts most likely at LEE, have added
a TEMPO there from 23Z-03Z. Will be a closer call at KMCO/KISM/SFB
where a PROB30 has been inserted into those respective TAFs.
Included DAB in a PROB30 as well as interior convection may get
pushed back toward the coast or outflow igniting additional
SHRA/TSRA back toward the east coast, with lingering instability. SE
winds increase 7-13 kts after sunrise with occasional gusts 20-24
kts along the coast behind the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  76  88  77 /  30  30  50  10
MCO  92  75  90  75 /  40  30  60  10
MLB  88  79  88  80 /  20  20  30  10
VRB  89  78  88  79 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  92  75  90  75 /  60  60  60  30
SFB  93  75  91  76 /  40  30  60  10
ORL  92  75  90  76 /  40  30  60  10
FPR  88  78  88  78 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion