Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

901
FXUS62 KMLB 221044
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
644 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- From today through the weekend, there is a 30-50% chance of
  mainly afternoon and evening storms over the interior. Wind
  gusts to 40-45 mph, brief torrential rain, and occasional
  lightning will accompany the strongest storms.

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists through
  the weekend. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly
  discouraged!

- Continued above-normal temperatures, even at night. Widespread
  Moderate HeatRisk through Memorial Day Weekend. This affects
  those sensitive to heat or without cooling or hydration.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains beneath slightly above-normal H5 heights this
morning. Subtle ridging extends along the Eastern Seaboard
to the Gulf, with a weak mid-level low centered east of the
Bahamas. Upstream, the subtropical jet is active from Baja
California to the Rio Grande Valley. Individual disturbances
embedded in this jet segment are expected to bring copious rainfall
from Texas to the Tennessee Valley over the next few days. However,
the active weather associated with this energy should stay well
northwest of Florida.

The overall pattern looks quite stagnant through at least Tuesday. A
nearby mid-level ridge should remain the main player in our weather
as it situates over the W Atlantic. The near-surface high pressure
axis should remain north of the local area, ensuring continued
E to SE flow off the Atlantic. Ensemble-averaged PW values are
forecast to be near to at times slightly above normal through the
middle of next week.

By late next week and into the following weekend, a preponderance
of the guidance hints at a pattern change. Cluster analysis shows
that the grand ensemble wants to flatten the ridge over Florida
beginning on Wednesday or Thursday. Upper-tropospheric charts then
reveal an area of divergent 200 hPa flow and potential upward
motion expanding over the Gulf and W Caribbean, and total moisture
anomalies turn strongly positive. While it`s too early to tell
whether a distinct area of low pressure could form, this setup
would result in periods of unsettled weather over the state.
Accordingly, the CPC 6-10 day outlook indicates a 50-60% chance of
above-normal rainfall between May 27-31.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

This looks like a rinse-and-repeat weather setup to end the work
week. A ribbon of drier air at 10 kft, right along the Atlantic
coast, should limit the I-95 corridor to only passing showers
primarily in the morning hours. By afternoon, a few showers and
storms should develop over the interior. Overall, shower and storm
coverage should be limited to 20-30%. High temps in the upper 80s
to low 90s will be running a couple degrees above normal. Quiet
conditions tonight with muggy low/mid 70s.

The high risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at our
Atlantic beaches. Swimming in the ocean is discouraged today.

Memorial Day Weekend...

Very similar weather continues each day. The E to SE wind flow
should limit coastal rain chances primarily to a few morning
showers. By afternoon, isolated to widely scattered (30-50%) storms
should develop over the interior before exiting toward the Gulf
coast in the evening. While a few wind gusts to 40-45 mph cannot
be ruled out from the strongest storms, this looks to be a low
threat. These slow-moving storms will be capable of dropping 2-3"
of rain in a short time over localized spots, perhaps resulting in
some nuisance ponding of water or minor flooding over urban areas.

No significant change in temperatures which remain near to a few
degrees above normal. Those partaking in outdoor activities should
stay hydrated and wear sunscreen.

Next (Short) Work Week, Tue-Fri...

We continue to like a persistence forecast through at least Tuesday,
as guidance suggests one more batch of drier mid-level air will
pass over the peninsula. As the mid-tropospheric ridge flattens
and flow aloft starts to turn more southwesterly, deeper moisture
should begin to arrive by Wednesday or Thursday. Higher rain and
storm coverage should creep back into the picture at that time,
though the specifics will need to be ironed out in later forecasts.
As mentioned in the overview, this could mark a stretch of more
unsettled weather to end the month of May.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure will remain anchored near or just south of Bermuda
through early next week, with its axis extending back into the
Deep South. Moderate prevailing east to southeast winds continue
over the waters this weekend before freshening somewhat early next
week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast.

Seas 3-4 ft through early next week, except up to 5 ft well
offshore. E to SE winds 10-15 kt through Saturday, then up to
12-18 kt Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Isold SHRA lifting northward just offshore will brush the coastal
terminals this morning so will start them at VCSH. Also patches
of MVFR CIGs will be possible as far inland as MCO through 14Z. ESE-
SE winds will pick back up 7-12 knots, enhanced by the sea breeze
along the coast gusting 20-24 knots there. Isold-SCT SHRA will
develop inland during the day with the sea breeze, some developing
into TSRA. Handling MCO with a VCTS from 19Z-23Z as probs are no
higher than 20% at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  75  90  77 /  20   0  20  20
MCO  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  50  20
MLB  88  79  88  80 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  88  78  89  79 /  10   0  30  10
LEE  92  76  92  76 /  20  10  50  50
SFB  92  75  93  76 /  20   0  40  20
ORL  91  75  92  76 /  20  10  50  20
FPR  88  77  88  78 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion