Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

274
FXUS62 KMLB 231120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Breezy northwest winds and critically low RH values will lead
  to a High Fire Danger across the area today, with fire sensitive
  conditions persisting through midweek.

- Colder than normal temperatures will persist through early this
  week. Freezing temperatures and low wind chills forecast for
  much of the area tonight, with an increased potential for frost
  into Tuesday night.

- Hazardous boating conditions will continue across the coastal
  waters today into tonight, becoming poor to hazardous Tuesday.

- A High Risk for rip currents exists at area beaches today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today-Tuesday...Colder and much drier air continues to filter into
the area behind a cold front now south of Florida. Temperatures
early this morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, with wind
chill values in the upper 20s to low 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory
continues through 9 AM this morning for much of the region, not
including the immediate coast from southern Brevard southward or
inland Martin County. Breezy NW winds will continue today, with
sustained speeds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts between 25 to 35 mph.
Highs will be around 15 degrees below normal in the mid to upper
50s, with near record cool highs forecast for some spots (see
climate section below). The breezy NW winds, very dry airmass and
ongoing drought conditions will lead to a High Fire Danger today.

Lowest temperatures associated with this cold spell forecast into
tonight/early Tuesday morning, with a freeze expected for much of
the area. The Freeze Watch that covered much of the region, except
along much of the coast from Brevard County southward and all of
Martin County has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Lows across
this region are forecast to fall to or just below the freezing mark
(upper 20s/low 30s), except Orlando metro area that may remain just
above freezing. Near freezing temps will be possible for mainland
coastal portions of southern Brevard, Indian River and St. Lucie
counties, but not enough confidence to include in the Freeze
Warning. Winds decrease to 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the
coast into tonight, but will still produce low wind chill values
in the 20s through early Tuesday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory
has been issued as well for all of east central Florida for 2 AM
to 9 AM Tuesday. Residents and visitors are advised to dress
appropriately, practice space heater safety, bring pets indoors,
and protect sensitive plants.

High pressure begins to build across the area Tuesday, with north-
northwest winds around 5-10 mph. Highs will be a little higher than
Monday, but still below normal in the 60s. Light winds and mostly
clear skies will lead to favorable radiational cooling conditions
Tuesday night, with temperatures falling quickly after sunset. Lows
will again be much colder than normal, in the mid 30s to low 40s for
much of east central FL. However, may see freezing temperatures
occur once again across normally colder spots of northern Lake and
inland Volusia counties and more rural inland areas south of
Orlando. Regardless, these colder min temps and light winds will
favor areas of frost development across much of the region, so
residents will want to continue to protect sensitive vegetation.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure shifts eastward into the
Atlantic, with ridge axis remaining across FL. It will remain dry
through midweek, with temperatures rising rather quickly as winds
become S/SW. Highs return to near normal values (in the 70s) on
Wednesday and then will be above normal (in the upper 70s to low
80s) for much of the area on Thursday. Lows will still be below
normal Wednesday night with values in the 40s, but will then be mild
in the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday night.

Friday-Sunday...Temperatures continue to warm through late week (as
high as the low to mid 80s) and remain above normal into the weekend
as a weak front approaches and eventually moves in near to north of
the area and stalls. Moisture increases ahead of this approaching
front, with rain chances returning to the forecast Friday and
lingering through the weekend, providing some beneficial rainfall.
PoPs will range around 40-50 percent both Friday and Saturday,
decreasing to 20-30 percent on Sunday. There will be a modest
increase in instability as well, which may allow for isolated storms
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today-Tuesday...Boating conditions will remain hazardous through
today into tonight, and then will be poor to hazardous into Tuesday.
Northwest winds around 25-30 knots will continue through early this
morning. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the offshore waters of
Volusia and Brevard Counties for frequent gust to 35 knots, with a
Small Craft Advisory in effect for the rest of the waters. A Small
Craft Advisory will then continue for all of the waters from late
this morning through tonight, as NW winds of 15-25 knots continue to
build seas up to 7-12 feet today, falling to 6-10 feet into tonight.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish into Tuesday, but the Small
Craft Advisory will continue for the Gulf Stream waters through
early Tuesday afternoon for lingering seas up to 7-8 feet.

Wednesday-Friday...Boating conditions become more favorable into
much of mid to late week. High pressure building across the area
through midweek will push offshore, with ridge axis remaining across
the FL peninsula through Friday. Winds become S/SW around 5-15 knots
for much of this timeframe, but are forecast to increase to 15-20
knots offshore into Thursday night, producing a brief period of poor
boating conditions. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.

Dry conditions are forecast to continue through Thursday, but an
increase in moisture and instability will lead to isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms into Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 606 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all ECFL
terminals. Becoming breezy/gusty again today as NW winds increase
to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 14Z, with low chances to
push higher at times. Winds may back off some after 18Z, but don`t
really diminish until after 22Z, dropping to 12 kts or less
between 00Z and 04Z. Winds remain 5-10 kts from the NW through
late Tuesday morning, then becoming light/VRB as the center of
high pressure moves over Florida.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions forecast across the area today,
with a Red Flag Warning in effect for all of east central Florida
from 9 AM this morning through 7 PM this evening. Breezy northwest
winds, with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts between
25 to 35 mph will combine with Min RH values in the 20s to produce
an heightened risk for wildfire development and spread today. High
pressure will then build into the area through midweek, which will
allow winds to decrease to around 5-10 mph both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Wind direction will be out of the north-northwest Tuesday
and then become south-southwest on Wednesday. However sensitive fire
weather conditions continue as a very dry airmass will continue to
produce Min RH values in the 20s to mid 30s across much of the area
both days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Highs will be around 15 degrees colder than normal today, and
there is a chance for max temps to tie or break record cool highs
at a few spots. Greatest potential will be at Leesburg, Orlando
and Fort Pierce.

Record Cool Highs for Today, February 23rd:

Site:      Record Cool Highs
Daytona         52 1989
Leesburg        57 1964
Sanford         50 1978
Orlando         54 1989
Melbourne       53 1939
Vero Beach      53 1978
Fort Pierce     60 1989

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  32  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  55  34  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  58  33  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  59  33  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  32  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  56  35  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  59  32  62  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
     547-647-747.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion