Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

769
FXUS62 KMLB 051702
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1202 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

- A cold front exits Central Florida this afternoon. Showers will
  diminish through the rest of the day as northwest winds
  increase.

- Cold air settles behind the front, with lows in the 30s and
  wind chill values in the mid 20s to low 30s. A Cold Weather
  Advisory is in effect across most of east central Florida from 1
  AM to 9 AM on Friday.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
  local Atlantic waters as winds and seas increase behind the cold
  front, with conditions not anticipated to improve until early
  next week.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast to persist over
  the next few days behind the cold front due to the dry air and
  breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Today-Tonight...A cold front will continue moving towards the
Florida peninsula through today, aided in its progression by the
eastward sweep of a mid-level trough. CAM guidance maintains a
band of stratiform rain out ahead of the front as it moves across
the peninsula, bringing some welcome rain to the east central
Florida area though totals are anticipated to remain around a
quarter of an inch or less areawide. Maintained a 70% chance of
showers areawide through today, with a gradual tapering off of
rain chances through this afternoon. Behind the front, northwest
winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph
possible. These winds will help advect a colder, drier airmass
southward across east central Florida, with PWATs forecast to tank
below 0.3" areawide. High pressure then slowly builds behind the
front into tonight, with clear skies anticipated across east
central Florida. Winds remain around 5 to 10 mph overnight and
patchy frost development cannot be ruled out across much of east
central Florida, though confidence remains low at this time given
the forecasted winds. Regardless, the protection of sensitive
plants will be a good idea through the overnight hours.

High cloud coverage associated with the cold front will assist in
keeping high temperatures across east central Florida below
normal in the low to mid 60s, with temperatures peaking just
before the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will then cool
through the late afternoon and evening hours, falling into the 30s
areawide tonight. With winds also remaining around 10 mph into
the overnight hours, wind chills will also be a concern areawide,
with HREF guidance indicating there is a 40-70% chance of wind
chill values falling below 30 degrees across a majority of east
central Florida. Deterministic guidance shows wind chill values
falling into the mid 20s to low 30s across east central Florida,
and thus, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all areas
except coastal Martin County late tonight into early Friday
morning (1 AM through 9 AM). Residents and visitors should plan on
dressing warm, following proper space heater safety, and keeping
pets indoors.

Friday-Sunday...A weak lobe of energy associated with another
strengthening mid-level trough across the northeastern US will
move towards the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night, which
will support the passage of a reinforcing front across east
central Florida. Across the northeastern US, the area of low
pressure associated with the mid-level trough is anticipated to
shift eastward from the Great Lakes region towards New England on
Friday and will then move offshore into Saturday. The cold front
associated with this system will slowly drift southwards across
the eastern US, passing many locations with little fanfare as it
weakens. By Saturday night into Sunday, it is forecast to approach
east central Florida, with the orientation of the front causing
it to act more like a backdoor front as it moves from the
northeast towards the southwest. By Sunday, ridging begins to
build as high pressure strengthens across east central Florida.

Despite the passage of a reinforcing front on Friday and the weak
backdoor front Saturday night into Sunday morning, conditions
across east central Florida are forecast to remain dry through the
weekend. Rain chances remain near zero this weekend, with PWATs
remaining below 0.3" areawide. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph on
Friday become northerly on Saturday, veering to out of the east
and becoming lighter at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday. Cooler air remains
in place through this weekend, with highs in the low to mid 60s on
Friday increasing to the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday and Sunday.
Lows in the 40s on Friday night cool into the upper 30s 40 mid 40s
Saturday night before returning to the 40s on Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday...In the mid-levels, a broad ridge is forecast
to move towards the area, stretching from the Gulf towards the
Florida peninsula and gradually shifting eastward through the
middle of next week. At the surface, this will translate to an
area of high pressure remaining in place across Florida, with dry
conditions anticipated to persist through the start of next week.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the extended period thanks
to the high remaining anchored across the area, with a return to
near-normal temperatures by Monday and near to slightly above-
normal temperatures towards the middle of the week. Aside from
some sensitive fire weather conditions potentially persisting,
there are minimal weather concerns through the extended forecast
period at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Poor boating conditions today will deteriorate as a cold front
moves across the local Atlantic waters, with increasing rain
chances out ahead of the front and increasing northwest winds
forecast behind the front. Winds reach 20 to 25 knots through the
overnight hours, with seas rapidly building in response to 6 to 9
feet, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. A Small Craft
Advisory currently goes into effect starting at 10 AM today for
all legs of the local waters, continuing across the offshore
waters through at least Friday. Extensions will likely be needed,
as it will take some time for the poor to hazardous boating
conditions to diminish due to the passage of a reinforcing front
on Friday and a backdoor front Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Winds gradually veer from the northwest to out of the north on
Saturday then out of the east on Sunday, subsiding to 5 to 10
knots. Seas are not forecast to subside below 6 feet until Monday
at this time. By Monday, high pressure builds across east central
Florida and the local waters, with offshore winds persisting at 5
to 10 knots. Aside from today, rain is not forecast across the
local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

MCO IMPACTS:
- IFR conds improving this afternoon, beyond 19-20Z.
- Westerly WNW crosswinds late today and again tomorrow, gusting
  15-25 KT.

Messy conditions out there with a mix of low CIGs and VIS along
and behind a band of showers associated with a cold front. Jet
stream energy will begin to `kick` this feature offshore this
afternoon, allowing conds to improve at most terminals between
19-21Z. Skies clear tonight as winds turn WNW. Gusts to 25 KT
through midnight, and again 15-25 KT on Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front will move across east central Florida today, with
showers forecast out ahead of the front as it moves southward.
Rain chances will diminish into the afternoon hours areawide.
Behind the front, breezy northwest winds are forecast to develop,
with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible. In
addition to the winds, dry air will also move towards east central
Florida from the north, resulting in decreasing RH values. This
will be particularly apparent starting on Friday, with minimum RH
values falling below 35% nearly areawide. These low RH values are
anticipated to persist into Friday and at least through the
weekend. Additionally, the breezy winds are also forecast to
persist on Friday and Saturday, with winds becoming lighter by
Sunday. In summary, sensitive to near- critical fire weather
conditions are forecast across much of east central Florida
through at least this weekend. There is some potential for
sensitive conditions to persist into early next week, though there
is greater uncertainty with that at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  34  62  45  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  38  62  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  36  63  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  35  64  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  35  62  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  63  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  38  62  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  35  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion