For the latest information on tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and the weather conditions in Orlando and Miami Florida.

Weather Conditions in Orlando

 

National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida  

Updated: 7:29 pm EDT Jul 18, 2025

Tonight

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Lo 77 °F
Saturday

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 105. East southeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Hi 96 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Lo 77 °F
Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 102. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Hi 96 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind around 5 mph.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Lo 77 °F
Monday

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. West northwest wind around 5 mph.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Hi 96 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight.
Chance
T-storms

Lo 78 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 94. West wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Chance
T-storms then
T-storms
Likely
Hi 94 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. South southwest wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
T-storms
Likely

Lo 77 °F

National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details

 

Day 1 rainfall

Day 2 rainfall

Day 3 rainfall

417
FXUS62 KMLB 181919
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
319 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Very warm and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices
  up to 110 and Major HeatRisk impacts continue across portions
  of East Central Florida through early next week.

- Rain and lightning storm chances remain below normal through the
  weekend, then chances increase once again next week as a
  weakening front and high moisture approach from the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Currently...Quite the stark contrast to only a couple days ago,
with just a few weak showers developing on lake breeze boundaries
across the northern counties where where the environment remains
more favorable for deep convection. The main headline is now the
heat, as mid-level high pressure moves overhead and subsidence
increases temperatures, which combined with the lingering surface
moisture and low rain chances, is making for some gross conditions
this afternoon.

Rest of Today...A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of East
Central Florida through 6 PM for heat indices up to around 108
and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts, due to the combination of
humidity and temperatures pushing into the L-M90s this afternoon.
While PWATs are much higher to the north (still up to around 2") than
down south (around 1.6" and dropping to near 1.4" along the coast),
most of the drier air contribution in the the mid-levels and the
surface remains pretty humid. Dewpoint temperatures are fairly
consistent across the area as is the cu-field, expect along the
coast behind the sea breeze, with the higher heat indices and
greater HeatRisk impacts across the north due to more southerly
flow and little to no onshore relief. The drier mid- levels,
especially to the south, have been very hostile to deep
convection. Continuing 20-40 pct chances for showers and storms
this afternoon and evening, highest (such as the are) across the
interior in the late evening with the sea breeze collision, but
these chances may turn out to be on the optimistic as entrainment
kills updrafts. That said, any storms that manage to develop will
be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to
45 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Activity diminishes late this
evening, with drier air beginning to slowly move across the area
during the overnight hours.

Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The mid-level
ridge remains situated overhead of Florida through this weekend,
with the Atlantic high and its ridge axis centered across the
peninsula. Light southerly winds are forecast to become more
southeasterly along the coast each afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland, with a low chance for shower
and storm development along the sea breeze. The greatest chances
for any shower and storm activity is focused near and north of the
I-4 corridor on Saturday and across the interior west of I-95 on
Sunday. Confidence in storm development also remains low (40
percent), but if any were to develop, they may be capable of
producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief heavy
downpours. Any activity that manages to develop is anticipated to
diminish into the late evening hours, with dry conditions
prevailing overnight.

Hot and humid conditions persist across the area into the
weekend, especially with limited cloud coverage allowing for
greater daytime heating. While temperatures increase a bit more
this weekend, slightly drier air filtering in especially Saturday
will provide a small offset, complicating the prospect of reaching
Heat Advisory conditions. Afternoon highs climb into the low 90s
along the coast and into the mid 90s across the interior, and
could push towards the upper 90s on Sunday. Peak heat indices are
again forecast to near and/or exceed advisory criteria each day,
so will continue to monitor the need for any Heat Advisories over
the next few days. Additionally, Moderate to Major HeatRisk is
forecast across east central Florida, meaning residents and
visitors alike should take proper precautions to prevent heat
stress. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade and air
conditioning, wearing light colored clothing, and shifting outdoor
activities away from the hours of peak heat will be key to
preventing heat-related illnesses through this weekend. Lows
remain seasonable in the low to mid 70s each night.

Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The mid-level
ridge shifts westward out across the Gulf into the work week,
allowing a weakening frontal boundary to push southward towards
Florida and the local Atlantic waters through mid to late week.
This will lead to a return of PWATs exceeding 2 inches and greater
locally, allowing for greater shower and storm coverage across
east central Florida. Stuck closer to climatology with a 50 to 70
percent chance of rain and a 50 percent chance of storms each
afternoon. It is still too early to determine exact storm threats
with any activity that does develop, but lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours leading to minor, localized flooding
will all be possible.

Heat concerns persist into Monday, with highs reaching the mid 90s
and peak heat indices still forecast near advisory criteria. By
Tuesday and beyond, the greater moisture and increased cloud
coverage will help limit daytime heating, with highs reaching the
low 90s. Peak heat indices remain just below advisory criteria at
100 to 107 in the extended, but will continue to monitor.
Overnight lows remain seasonable in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Generally favorable albeit hot boating conditions expected through
the weekend as the ridge axis of the Atlantic high slides slowly
south across Florida and the local Atlantic waters. Winds veer
from SE-S south of the ridge axis to S-SW to the north, backing to
the SE-E each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and
moves inland, at 5-15 kts. The Atlantic high weakens and slides
further south early next week as a weakening front pushes south
through the western Atlantic towards the Southeast Seaboard and
Florida. Winds become more westerly Monday and Tuesday between
these two features. Increasing moisture will once again return
very high storms chances and cloud cover, which could disrupt
formation of the sea breezes in the afternoons. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Mostly VFR. Shower and storm coverage forecast to be lower today,
ranging from isolated to scattered, and mainly focused across the
interior late afternoon through early evening. Have kept VCTS at
KMCO/KSFB/KISM due to lower rain chances today (up to 30-40%), and
have continued a tempo group for MVFR TSRA impacts at KLEE from
22-24Z. Will continue to monitor in case additional tempo groups
are needed for any shra/tsra later today. Winds S/SE around 5-8
knots, becoming E/SE behind the sea breeze up to 10-15 knots, with
some gusts up to 20-25 knots possible along the coast. Winds then
diminish into tonight to 5 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  94 /  10  20   0  20
MCO  76  96  76  97 /  20  20   0  30
MLB  77  91  76  93 /  10  10   0  20
VRB  75  91  74  92 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  77  94  77  94 /  30  30   0  30
SFB  76  95  76  96 /  20  20   0  30
ORL  77  96  77  96 /  20  20   0  30
FPR  75  91  73  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion

Weather Conditions in Miami

 

National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida

Updated: 3:21 pm EDT Jul 18, 2025

 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 84. East wind 11 to 13 mph.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 102. East wind around 11 mph.
Mostly Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 81. East wind 8 to 11 mph.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind 7 to 10 mph.
Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 81. East wind 6 to 9 mph.
Mostly Clear

Lo 84 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 81 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 81 °F
 

National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details

 

Day 1 rainfall

Day 2 rainfall

Day 3 rainfall

Saharan Air Layer

Wind Shear Tendency

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies

200hPa Velocity Potential Forecast