Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

144
FXUS62 KMLB 201818
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
218 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate
  scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next
  few days.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening,
  with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower
  rain chances and slight cooling late week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Rest of Today-Tuesday...A glance at a loop of GOES-East visible
satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low locked
over the Florida peninsula, evident in the cloud motions. Deep
moisture, with PWATs over 2" and upper level support have allowed
for isolated to scattered showers and a few storms to develop prior
to 2 PM. Expect coverage to increase over the next few hours along
the sea breeze, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Prevailing onshore
flow will progress this activity inland and to the west coast later
this afternoon and into this evening. PoPs decrease accordingly
towards sunset. Until then, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out,
capable of wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally
heavy rainfall of 1-3". A few showers and storms will be possible
again overnight along the coast, as a few cells drift inland along
continued onshore flow.

Similar conditions are forecast through early this week. The upper
level low persists over the Florida peninsula on Monday, before
moving NE and merging with an approaching upper level trough on
Tuesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to
numerous (50-70%) showers and storms in the afternoons. Activity
looks to develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift
inland along the dominant east coast sea breeze into the evening
hours. Isolated strong storms will remain possible, though 500 mb
temperatures look to warm from near -8 C today to -6 C Tuesday. Late
night/early morning showers and storms may continue to drift into
coastal areas, as scattered to numerous convection persists over the
Atlantic waters overnight. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper
90s to near 100 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great
Lakes region mid-week, moving offshore. Meanwhile, a surface low
pressure system off of the US east coast drifts NE over the western
Atlantic. These features are forecast to stack and deepen off of the
Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and Friday, then meander offshore of
New England into the weekend. Locally, a surface cool front attached
to this low looks to drop southward into the Florida peninsula
Wednesday. The front is forecast to weaken, slowing as it approaches
the local area, where it lingers through the end of the work week
and finally moves south of the forecast area by the weekend.

Little change to the sensible impacts Wednesday and Thursday
compared to earlier in the week. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3")
persists over the area, while the presence of the front maintains
enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in
the afternoons. Will also see chances for isolated to scattered
showers and storms (20-30%) persist along the coast during the
overnight hours, as NE flow continues. Winds remain around 10 mph or
less Wednesday, before a tightening pressure gradient behind the
front increases winds to 10-15 mph (gusts 20-25 mph) from Melbourne
northward through the day Thursday. Gusts near 30 mph are possible
along the Volusia County coastline by the evening hours Thursday,
with sustained winds 25-30 mph just offshore. High temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s continue.

As the front moves into south Florida Friday and into the weekend,
drier air (PWATs below 1.5") will begin to filter into northern
portions of the forecast area. Thus, PoPs diminish from north to
south, becoming isolated to scattered (20-50%). Breezy NE flow
continues, especially on Friday, with winds 10-15+ mph and gusts 20-
25 mph in the afternoons. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for
high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s.
However, the main difference will be the drier air leading to lower
max heat indices.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week this
week, as NE winds remain around 10 kts or less. However, will see
scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day,
especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible,
capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3
ft. A cool front is forecast to move through the local waters into
Thursday, increasing NE winds to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral
by the evening hours. Conditions look to deteriorate progressively
southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered showers and lightning storms are ongoing along the
coast, mainly from MLB southward, and across the interior, mainly
around the Orlando Metro. Additional showers and storms are
forecast to form this afternoon as activity shifts westward in the
onshore flow and the diffuse east coast sea breeze pushes inland.
Have maintained TEMPOs and PROB30 for everywhere, except DAB,
starting at 18Z for MVFR TSRA conditions. A few stronger storms
will be possible. Any lingering convection will diminish or move
out of the area by 00Z. While mostly dry conditions are forecast
overnight, isolated showers and storms may brush along the coast
at times. E/NE winds this afternoon generally below 10 KT will
become light and variable overnight before becoming E/NE and
increasing to 5-9 KT by mid-morning on Monday. Have included VCSH
starting along the coast at 15Z on Monday and at 17Z for MCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  88 /  10  40  20  60
MCO  73  90  73  91 /  10  60  20  70
MLB  74  87  74  88 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  73  88  73  88 /  20  60  40  70
LEE  73  90  73  90 /  20  60  20  70
SFB  73  89  73  90 /  10  60  10  70
ORL  74  89  74  90 /  10  70  10  70
FPR  72  88  72  88 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion