Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

587
FXUS62 KMLB 131859
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening with the potential for one or two storms
  capable of frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy
  rainfall; a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (< 2% chance)

- A similar forecast is expected Tuesday before the arrival of
  more Saharan dust which will limit rain and storm chances mid to
  late week

- Hot and humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat
  indices between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat
  safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows a line of
scattered showers and lightning storms developing to the west of
Lake and Volusia counties moving east towards east central
Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations shows
mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts
show high pressure extended over southern Florida with a major
shortwave trough over the Midsouth/Southeastern US. Temperatures
are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values are generally
between 98-107F degrees.

Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. This morning`s 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,091
J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,630 J/kg, a PWAT of 1.98", 0-6km shear at 10kts,
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and a 500mb
temperature of -8C. Thus, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists
for all of east central Florida. The main hazards are frequent
lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), and
heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4-5" with the potential of
minor flooding of roadways and low lying areas. Additionally, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out (

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion