Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

397
FXUS62 KMLB 211856
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- The typical Florida summertime pattern will persist locally
  through this weekend and into next week with daily afternoon
  showers and storms forecast across east central Florida.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive
  lightning, strong wind gusts of 45-55 mph, small hail, and heavy
  downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". There is a
  5% chance for thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph along the
  coast from the Cape northward.

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak
  heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria.
  Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to
  practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Current-Tonight... Satellite imagery shows a weak mid-level low along
the northeast FL/southeast GA boarder this afternoon. Associated mid-
level boundaries wrap the southern side of the low stretching across
portions of northeast and central Florida. Despite some intrusion of
dry air aloft, cloud cover and PWATs 1.9-2.0" suggest enough
moisture to support at least scattered coverage of afternoon and
evening storms. Environmental parameters remain similar to
yesterday with cold 500mb temperatures around -7.5C and DCAPE
values 800-1,200 J/Kg. Strong storms that develop again today will
be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 45-55
mph, and small hail. The strongest storms should occur along
boundary collisions, particularly collisions with the east coast
sea breeze, and SPC has highlighted a Marginal risk for severe
storms along the coast from the Cape northward. Here, there is a
5% chance for downburst wind gusts to 60 mph. Strong storms will
also be capable of heavy downpours, and quick rainfall
accumulations of 2-3 inches may result in minor or nuisance
flooding. Showers and storms may linger a little bit into the
evening across a few locations with dry conditions then forecast
overnight.

Saturday-Sunday... Pulses of shortwave energy continue to pass
overhead this weekend as a mid-level trough slowly slides across the
eastern U.S. A surface front remains stationary across the southeast
while a surface ridge axis holds near or across south Florida. This
will keep light offshore flow in place, predominantly out of the
southwest. A drier airmass will favor slightly below normal rain
chances for much of east central Florida on Saturday (~20-40%).
Major global models then become split on moisture and rain chances
on Sunday. Have shown a slight upward trend in Sunday`s rain chances
with this forecast package, suggesting more seasonal coverage of
scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%). However, slightly
lower forecast confidence exists due to wide model discrepancy.
Cold temperatures aloft (~ -8C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg),
and efficient surface heating should allow for a few strong storms
to develop each afternoon, and storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, gusty downburst winds of 40-55 mph, and small hail.
Heavy downpours within slow moving storms may result in localized
nuisance flooding. Outside of showers and storms, near to slightly
above seasonal temperatures are forecast. Highs mostly in the low
90s locally reach the mid 90s across portions of the interior.
Trends continue to hold below Heat Advisory criteria with peak
heat index values forecast to range 100-106F.

Monday-Thursday... Troughing across the eastern U.S. gradually
broadens as low pressure weakens and lifts northeast through
portions of Canada. Surface ridging becomes reestablished across
central Florida, and a loose pressure gradient will maintain light
southerly winds, often becoming variable early each day. Winds shift
onshore around 10 mph as the sea breeze develops each afternoon.
Below seasonal rain chances are forecast early in the week before a
more typical pattern of scattered afternoon and evening storms
returns generally from Wednesday onward (~40-60%). Temperatures show
little change, persisting in the low to mid 90s each afternoon with
peak heat index values between 102-107F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A surface ridge axis remains south of the local waters through the
weekend. This will maintain a period of light offshore flow,
shifting south to southeast in the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. The ridge axis lifts northward on Monday, settling across
the central Florida peninsula into late week. Light southerly flow
becomes established across the waters from Monday onward, still
turning onshore daily with the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2
ft, briefly building to 3 ft offshore this weekend. Isolated to
scattered offshore moving storms area forecast in the afternoons and
evenings, and stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts to 34
kts or greater, frequent cloud to water lightning, and locally
higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Enough confidence for TS impacts at KMCO/I-4 terminals to upgrade
PROB30s to TEMPOs. Kept PROB30s at KMLB-KTIX where majority of TS
are forecast to develop west of the terminals, though made some
timing adjustments based on latest trends and guidance. Overall
TS coverage forecast to be ISO-SCT, but could become NUM along the
sea breeze collision. +TSRA capable of gusts +35 kts possible,
and added gusts to all TEMPOs/PROB30s. Weak SWRLY steering flow
will gradually usher TS/SH NERLY and offshore, but some cells may
become slow/erratic due to chaotic boundary interactions. Surface
winds SWRLY 5-10 kts may become VRB at times, shifting SE-E behind
a delayed/slowed ECSB in the late afternoon and evening. TS/SH
push offshore dissipate after 00Z, but may linger as late as 03Z.
Quiet VFR overnight after convection clears. Near identical
forecast for Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  76  92 /  20  30  20  40
MCO  76  95  76  93 /  20  20  20  60
MLB  77  94  77  93 /  30  40  30  60
VRB  75  93  75  93 /  30  40  30  50
LEE  76  93  76  91 /  20  30  30  40
SFB  76  94  76  92 /  20  20  20  50
ORL  77  95  77  93 /  20  30  20  60
FPR  76  93  75  93 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion