Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

979
FXUS62 KMLB 161047
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
647 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers, as well as
  lightning storms will persist through the workweek. There is the
  potential for a few strong storms each day, which will have the
  capability of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts
  up to 40-50 mph, and heavy rainfall with slow-moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices generally
  between 100-107 with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk and an Extreme
  HeatRisk for a small portion of east central Florida. Residents
  and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the
  shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about
  HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at
  all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a
  lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today-Wednesday... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions over east
central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations
indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are
currently in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with dew points
generally in the mid 70s. Analysis charts show the western Atlantic
ridge extended over southern Florida. Dry conditions are expected
to continue this morning before scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms are expected to develop into the afternoon. Coverage
of showers and lightning storms are forecast to increase as the east
coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with west-southwest
flow, as well as outflow from previous storms. A weak east coast
sea breeze will keep the highest rain shower (40-70%) and
lightning storms chances along the coast (much like yesterday).
The potential exists for isolated strong storms to develop which
will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, heavy
rainfall (1- 2" with a 2-5% chance of rainfall amounts in excess
of 2" up to 3"), and wind gusts up to 40-50mph.

Drier conditions are expected on Wednesday with the east coast sea
breeze pinned near the coast, however, the sea breeze will move
further inland from northern Brevard county northward where the
probability of precipitation will be highest (30-50%). Isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast into the
afternoon and evening. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists each
afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s and maximum
heat index values up 102-107F. Above normal (2-5F+) to near record
low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast. There is an
Extreme HeatRisk for portions of Brevard county on Tuesday, as well
as portions of Brevard, SW Orange, and NW Osceola counties. A Major
and Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and
hydration! Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing,
shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take frequent breaks
from the heat.

Thursday-Friday... Rain shower and lightning storm chances increase
to end the workweek on Thursday and Friday. Guidance shows PWATs as
high as 1.7-2.7" over east central Florida as a shortwave trough
deepens over the southeastern US and the east coast sea breeze
strengthens slightly and increases surface convergence with the west
coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The
shortwave trough is forecast to then track to the north of Florida
and over the southwestern Atlantic which will result in upper level
perturbations pivoting along the base of the trough over northern
east central Florida Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers
(40-70% THU and 30-50% FRI) and lightning storms are forecast to
develop each afternoon. The potential exists for isolated strong
storms each day which will be capable of frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall (1-2" with a 2-5% chance in excess of 2" up to 3-4"). The
greatest potential for strong storms exists on on Friday with
increased upper level support. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s with
maximum heat index values as high as 102-107F. Above normal (2-5F+)
to record low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are forecast. A
widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected. An Extreme
HeatRisk is forecast for portions of Brevard, SW Orange, NW Osceola,
and southern Lake counties on Thursday.

Saturday-Monday... The western Atlantic ridge is forecast to weaken
and shift southeast into the weekend as a major shortwave trough
deepens over the eastern US and the western Atlantic. Guidance
indicates that rain shower and lightning storm chances will increase
over the weekend with PWATs as high as 2.0"-2.4". The potential
exists for strong storms with a frontal boundary over northern
Florida, however, the forecast for east central Florida will
largely be dependent on the position of the frontal boundary as it
sags southward over the southern US and northern Florida.
Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with lows in
the low to upper 70s. There is a 30-70% chance of a Major HeatRisk
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with
the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern
Florida. Scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning
storms (some of which will have the potential to become
strong) are forecast today with isolated to scattered coverage,
mainly north of Brevard county on Wednesday. West-southwest winds
are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon at
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas of 1-3ft are expected.

Thursday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected.
Drier conditions are forecast Thursday (20-60%) and Friday
(20-40%) with isolated showers and lightning storms forecast. Rain
chances increase slightly on Saturday. Southwest winds at
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to back south-southeast
into each afternoon. Seas to 1-3ft are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

SW winds around 5 knots pick up around 10 knots after 14Z at all
local terminals. Increasing chances for VCSH and VCTS through
today, primarily after 16Z. Greatest chances for TSRA along the
coast due to the sea breeze collision, with TEMPOs added between
19-23Z. Activity moves offshore and diminishes beyond 00Z with
persistent SW winds subsiding to around 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  77 /  60  20  40   0
MCO  95  76  96  77 /  40  20  30  10
MLB  94  77  94  79 /  60  30  30  10
VRB  95  75  95  78 /  50  30  20  10
LEE  93  77  95  78 /  40  20  20   0
SFB  95  77  96  78 /  50  20  40  10
ORL  95  77  95  78 /  40  20  30  10
FPR  94  75  95  77 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion