Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

682
FXUS62 KMLB 201925
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is
  strongly discouraged!

- Isolated coastal showers with scattered rain and storms
  developing each afternoon/evening across inland locations, as
  the sea breeze pushes west. Overall, many locations will remain
  dry.

- High temperatures remain consistent in the upper 80s to low 90s,
  but heat index values climb to near or above 100 degrees this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Now-Tonight...Compared to this time yesterday, some drier air has
moved over east-central Florida. Thus, radar has been less active
with isolated showers and storms until just recently. As the east
coast breeze shifts inland over the next several hours, CAM guidance
suggests a gradual increase in convective development near/west of
the Orlando metro. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds 30-40 mph, and
occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with the most
organized activity. Many locations will otherwise stay dry with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through the rest of the
afternoon. Tonight, conditions remain mild (70s), particularly at
the coast as easterly flow persists.

A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at area
beaches. Keep this in mind if heading to the beach over the next
several days, as this risk will likely continue into the
holiday weekend. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Thursday-Wednesday (modified)...High pressure remains off of the
eastern US seaboard through the forecast period. Meanwhile, a mid to
upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts eastward late this week,
with upper level ridging subsequently developing over the peninsula.
Locally, little change remains expected to the weather pattern over
the next seven days. East to southeast flow prevails on the southern
periphery of the pressure ridge, with winds gusting as high as 20-25
mph each afternoon.

Rain chances have not changed much from the previous forecast,
generally staying in the 30-40% range inland and closer to 15-25% at
the coast. While isolated activity cannot be ruled out at the coast
as moisture increases this weekend into next week, onshore flow will
carry higher rain chances inland as the sea breeze moves west in the
afternoon and evening hours. Still, there will be a number of
locations that receive little to no measurable rainfall through the
extended forecast. Any storm could produce gusty winds (water-loaded
downdrafts), lightning strikes, and locally heavy rain. However,
there is currently no apparent organized risk for severe storms
through the middle of next week.

High temperatures look to hover between the mid 80s and low 90s, but
with added moisture, heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to
low 100s as early as Friday (and continue into next week). A
widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with some locations
developing a Major HeatRisk over the weekend. Be sure to stay cool
and hydrated, especially if spending extended time outdoors. In
addition, a moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue, so
heed the advice of lifeguards at area beaches!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

ESE winds 10-15 kt continue late week into the weekend, increasing
to 12-17 kt early next week as the pressure gradient around Atlantic
high pressure strengthens slightly. Shallow moisture will support
isolated showers through the period with an occasional lightning
storm possible (especially in the Gulf Stream and south of the
Cape). The primary focus for rain and storms, however, will be
carried west over the FL Peninsula with the daily east coast sea
breeze. Seas generally 2-4 ft, climbing to 5 ft offshore at times
from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR outside of convection. CAMs continue to show TSRA developing
INVOF KMCO and other Orlando terminals between 20Z-23Z before
pushing westward, but still not confident enough in direct
impacts for TEMPOs with the package. Sea breeze collision forecast
west of KLEE and ECFL terminals after 23Z. Along the coast,
onshore moving -SHRA have diminished, but could return in the
overnight hours. Winds ESE 7-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts,
especially along the Treasure Coast, become light/VRB overnight,
shifting to the SE at 5-10 kts Thursday. Lighter more SErly winds
will favor a Thursday afternoon sea breeze collision and TSRA
closer to the inland terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  88  75  90 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  72  91  73  91 /  10  30  10  30
MLB  77  87  78  88 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  75  87  78  89 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  73  91  75  92 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  72  92  74  92 /   0  30  10  30
ORL  72  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  30
FPR  75  87  77  88 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion