Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

331
FXUS62 KMLB 122325
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
625 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

- A strong, dry cold front will pass through the area tonight,
  with the coldest temperatures yet this season Friday into
  Saturday. Early morning wind chills are forecast in the lower to
  mid-40s, especially over the interior.

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next
  week. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty
  in the forecast.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last
  week. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along
  the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at
  water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Earlier showers along southern portions of
the Treasure Coast continue to drift south of the area this
afternoon, as the earlier, weaker front settles over the southern
peninsula. Deepening low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will drift
NE through tonight, dragging a reinforcing, stronger cold front
through the local area. Once the existing showers clear the
forecast area later this afternoon, mostly dry conditions are
expected overnight. Can`t rule out a stray shower along the front
towards morning, mainly over the interior, but PoPs remain 15% or
less. Will start to see cooler air advect from the north along NNW
flow behind the front, with lows falling into the mid to upper
50s from Orlando northward by daybreak.

Friday-Saturday...The low slowly drifts off of the Northeast US
coast, as ridging drifts eastward over the central states.
Locally, this will maintain NNW/NNE flow through Saturday. Winds
10-15 mph in the afternoon could gust up to 20 mph at times. PoPs
less than 10% through the period, under clearing skies. Much
cooler, drier air will be the main story. Highs will remain in the
lower to mid-70s on Friday, beginning the below normal trend.
However, they will struggle to hit 70 on Saturday, with forecast
temperatures peaking in the 60s (10-15 degrees below normal). The
coolest night will be Friday night, as lows dip into the mid to
upper 40s. Coastal areas south of Cape Canaveral look to remain in
the lower 50s. Winds remaining near 5-10 mph overnight will
produce wind chills in the lower to mid-40s. By Saturday night,
winds begin to veer NE over the Atlantic waters, keeping
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind chills in the
lower 40s will remain possible north and west of I-4.

Sunday-Thursday...Strong ridging builds eastward across the US,
north of the local area, from Sunday into early next week. Beyond
that, the forecast remains highly uncertain, with little
persistence from run to run nor consensus within the models on
timing or development of features. Overall, higher confidence in
onshore flow redeveloping over the Florida peninsula, perhaps
becoming breezy to windy. This will help to warm temperatures to
nearer to normal, in the mid to upper 70s for highs and 60s for
lows. Moisture also looks to increase, with PoPs returning to the
forecast. Will need to monitor the threat for minor coastal
impacts and locally heavy rainfall; However, it is too early for
specifics like timing and placement.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Boating conditions deteriorate into tonight, as a reinforcing cold
front moves through the area into Friday. Westerly winds freshen
and veer NNW by daybreak. Wind speeds will be near 20 kts at
times, specifically across the Volusia County and offshore Brevard
waters. Small craft should exercise caution. Winds remain around
15-20 kts at times through Saturday, veering onshore by Sunday.
High pressure building north of the local waters will maintain
poor to hazardous onshore winds through much of early next week,
with increasing rain chances. Seas 3-5ft, with up to 6ft in the
Gulf Stream into Saturday. After a brief reduction on Sunday,
increasing swell will build seas up to 5-7 ft early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 625 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Mainly VFR tonight through Friday. Some brief MVFR cigs may be
possible along and ahead of a passing cold front into tonight,
but confidence in these lower cigs not high enough to include in
the TAFs at this time. Drier air moving in behind the front will
lead to decreasing mid to high level cloud cover through tomorrow,
with mostly sunny skies forecast for areas near to north of KMCO
by late Friday morning.

W/SW winds are diminishing this evening, and will become
NW overnight as front moves through, increasing to 5-9 knots.
W/NW winds then forecast into Friday, with speeds increasing to
8-12 knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Drier air filtering behind a reinforcing cold front tonight is
forecast to reduce min RH values Friday to 35-45% from Brevard and
Osceola northward, and 35-45% for most of the area Saturday, at
or below 35% along and north of I-4. Forecast NW/NNW winds Friday
and Saturday are generally to around 10-15 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph. Moisture is forecast to increase again Sunday into
early next week, as winds become onshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over
the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1)
is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast
to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five
days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast
Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid
next week, but here is currently a high degree of uncertainty in
the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any
implications for ongoing flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  72  46  64 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  61  72  48  64 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  64  74  52  67 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  64  76  52  69 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  57  72  46  64 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  59  72  46  64 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  60  72  47  64 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  64  75  52  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion