Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

205
FXUS62 KMLB 091101
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
701 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida
  from 11 AM through 8 PM for peak afternoon heat indices up to
  110F.

- Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high
  temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices in
  the mid to upper 100s, with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
  impacts.

- Below normal rain chances 30% or less continue through Friday,
  then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30% to 60% from
  the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Today-Tonight...The weak surface pressure ridge axis from the
Atlantic High slowing lifts from South Florida towards North
Florida, under a high pressure ridge in roughly the same spot.
Weak southerly low level flow becomes more variable, allowing the
sea breezes to march inland at roughly the same rate, slightly
favoring the west coast breeze and the east coast breeze from the
Cape south, and colliding across the interior late in the evening.
Dry air continues to filter in, knocking rain chances back to
just 20% from the Orlando Metro to the Cape north (with the sea
breeze collision being the primary focus), and less than 20% to
the south. The environment will support rapid updraft growth for
deep convection that manages to develop, and the dry air could
enhance downdrafts. Primary storm hazards will be frequent to
excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance
for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours.
Generally expected a late start for storms after 6 PM, but a few
could pop around 4 PM.

While drier as has lowered dew points a few degrees, temperatures
are forecast to creep up a few more degrees, with afternoon highs
in the M-U90s across most of East Central Florida, within a couple
degrees of daily high temperatures records for a few locations
(see Climate section below). Resulting peak afternoon Heat Indices
will be near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in
Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties.
Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are
anticipated. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central
Florida from 11 AM to 8 PM. Never leave children or pets
unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent
hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you
feel unwell.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at the beaches. Always
swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

Friday-Saturday...The weak surface ridge axis stays more or less
over Central Florida, continuing light southerly to southeasterly
flow. Very dry air Friday plus a weak onshore component shifts the
meager 20% rain chances well inland for most of the area, except
to the south where the arrival of higher moisture increases rain
chances to 20-30%. High temperatures remain in the M-U90s for most
of the area, but the drier air shaves a few degrees off peak
afternoon heat indices Friday, bringing them more into the
L-M100s. A bit more moisture filters up into Central Florida
Saturday, increasing rain chances closer to normal (30-60%), but
also nudging peak afternoon heat indices back up towards Heat
Advisory criteria near or above 107F. Widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Typical afternoon
thunderstorm risks continue, though Friday will again be
conditional on storms developing.

Sunday-Wednesday...Some relief from the above normal heat is
expected next week (not that normal Florida heat isn`t still
gross) as a trough building into the western Atlantic suppresses
the ridge at the surface and aloft, and drier than normal air
continues to advect from the south. Despite the drier air, upper
level support from the trough and a front with its associated
moisture sagging into the Deep South will support near to
slightly above normal rain chances and higher cloud cover,
knocking afternoon highs closer to normal in the L-M90s (for what
that`s worth). Widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk
impacts are forecast, along with peak afternoon heat indices in
the L-M100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas. Weak pressure
ridge extending to Florida from the Atlantic High will meander
north and south across the peninsula through the period, shifting
flow from offshore (S-SW) today to more longshore (SW-SE) Friday
and Saturday, then back more offshore early next week. The sea
breeze circulation will back winds to the S-SE from the afternoon
into the early overnight. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally
pushing over 15 kts from the Cape north in the late evenings. Seas
1-3 feet. Low (20% or less) chances for showers and lightning
storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal
(30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near
the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore
waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms.
Light and variable winds are expected to increase from SW at
6-12kts before backing SE into the aftn/eve except at KLEE. Winds
are expected to become light and variable into the overnight. VCTS
is forecast at the TAF sites N of KMLB after 20Z/21Z and before
01Z/02Z. The potential exists for an isolated strong storm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week:

Site         July 9       July 10     July 11
Daytona     97  (2202)   97 (2010)   98 (1980)
Leesburg    97  (2016)   97 (2016)   97 (2016)
Sanford     100 (2016)   97 (2007)   99 (1969)
Orlando     98  (1932)   99 (1980)   98 (1989)
Melbourne   96  (2203)   98 (1964)   97 (2010)
Vero Beach  96  (2204)   97 (2202)   96 (2200)
Fort Pierce 100 (1932)   96 (1981)   99 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  76  95  76 /  20  20   0   0
MCO  97  76  97  77 /  20  20  10  10
MLB  93  77  92  78 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  94  77  92  77 /   0   0  20   0
LEE  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  20  20
SFB  97  76  97  77 /  20  20  10  10
ORL  97  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10
FPR  93  76  91  77 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion