Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

411
FXUS62 KMLB 070718
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- An elevated fire danger exists across the area today. A Red
  Flag Warning is in effect from Brevard and Osceola counties
  northward from 12PM to 8PM.

- Record setting heat and dry conditions forecast today, with
  highs reaching the mid-90s across much of the area.

- Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend, with highs
  remaining above normal and peak heat indices reaching the mid to
  upper 90s for much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Today-Tonight...Record setting heat and dry conditions are forecast
across the area today, as mid level ridge across the Gulf continues
to expand across the FL peninsula. At the surface, the ridge axis of
high pressure across the Atlantic shifts south of the area, with low
level winds becoming west-southwest and increasing to 10-15 mph into
the afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 mph. This offshore flow should
prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming north of the Cape,
with a delayed and stalled out sea breeze to the south. Widespread
highs in the mid-90s are expected even along much of the coast, with
daily record highs forecast to be tied or broken at most of the
primary climate sites of east central Florida (Orlando and Fort
Pierce may fall just short by 1-2 degrees). Even overnight tonight,
temperatures remain above normal, with lows only falling to the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions for
these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave children
or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing heat, as well
as dry and gusty conditions today will also lead to an elevated fire
weather danger this afternoon and evening.

Friday-Sunday...A weak front will slide southward into north central
Florida by early Friday morning before it stalls out and eventually
lifts northward into the weekend. Moisture will increase with this
boundary, with PW values rising to 1.6-1.8 inches. May see a few
showers move in during the morning with the front. Otherwise, rain
chances are mainly limited into the afternoon/evening hours north
and inland of the Treasure Coast (up to 20-40%). Isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing near the front and with the
inland moving sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon will have
the potential to shift back toward the Brevard/Volusia coasts and
offshore into the evening. Sea breeze generated showers and storms
will continue each afternoon and evening into the weekend, with
greatest PoPs (up to 30-60%) north of Okeechobee County and the
Treasure Coast Saturday, and around 20-40% across the area on
Sunday. Lingering dry air aloft will continue the potential for
isolated strong storms each day, producing frequent lightning
strikes and gusty winds up to 40-45 mph. Some storms may also
produce locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches.

The arrival of the front and return of an onshore flow with the sea
breeze will help drop max temps slightly tomorrow. However, highs
will still be above normal for much of the region, ranging from the
mid to upper 80s at the coast to low 90s for much of the interior.
Widespread highs in the low to mid 90s are then forecast into the
weekend. The above normal temperatures and more humid conditions,
producing heat index values in the mid to upper 90s (and around 100
degrees for some spots) will continue heat impacts, particularly for
heat-sensitive individuals, through the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Mid/upper level trough moves through the eastern
U.S., pushing a cold front toward and eventually through the area
early next week. Current projections from the model guidance has
this boundary moving through Monday night, with scattered showers
and storms developing ahead of the front Monday and pushing
offshore, with rain chances increasing up to 40-60%. Increasing W/SW
winds aloft may lead to some stronger storm development into Monday
afternoon, with the main threats including frequent lightning
strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. High pressure
pushing off the Mid-Atlantic coast will switch winds quickly onshore
behind the front, and with some lingering moisture will still lead
to low end rain chances (20-30%) mostly along portions of the coast
into Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are then forecast
into the middle of next week.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances ahead of the front will
lower max temps slightly on Monday, but are still forecast to be
near to above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s. Highs are then
forecast to drop to more seasonable values in the 80s behind the
front into Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure across the West Atlantic
shifts south of the waters today, with a weak front approaching
central Florida late tonight. Southerly winds up to 10-15 knots will
become S/SE this afternoon as east coast sea breeze forms. Wind
speeds may briefly increase to between 15-20 knots offshore late
this afternoon into this evening, leading to temporary poor
boating conditions. Otherwise, wind speeds will largely remain
10-15 knots tonight as winds become W/NW. Dry conditions are
forecast to continue today into tonight, with seas 2-3 feet.

Friday-Monday...Weak front is now forecast to push into the northern
waters into Friday before it stalls and shifts back northward into
the weekend. This front will increase moisture and lead to a return
of isolated to scattered showers and storms that will initiate from
sea breeze development over land. However, a W/SW steering flow will
be capable of pushing some of this activity offshore into the
afternoon and evening, with isolated stronger storms possible.

Otherwise, boating conditions will be mostly favorable. Offshore
winds Friday morning become onshore into the afternoon as sea breeze
forms, and then winds will prevail out of the S/SE into the weekend.
Wind speeds will generally be 10-15 knots, but may increase to 15-20
knots offshore briefly during the late afternoon/evening hours on
Saturday and Sunday. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.

Another weak cold front is forecast to push southward through the
waters into early next week, with scattered showers and storms (some
strong) developing ahead of the front and pushing offshore. Winds
are forecast to become S/SW Monday around 10-15 knots ahead of the
front and then become N/NW as front moves through Monday night. Seas
will continue to range from 2-4 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR to continue thru at least 00z Fri. SW winds increase steadily
after 14z to 10-14 kt with gusts 20-25 kt after 18z, turning more
WSW. The sea breeze is likely to remain pinned near the east
coast as a result. The probability for MVFR CIGs increases 03z
Fri. onward as a front approaches from the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions will exist across east
central Florida today as record highs in the mid 90s and dry
conditions produce Min RH values as low as the upper 20s to mid 30s
for much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this
afternoon and evening from Osceola and Brevard counties northward
where critically low RH and gusty west to southwest winds around 15
mph are forecast to coincide. While near to critically low RH is
also forecast farther south, wind speeds are forecast to remain just
below 15 mph. However, this will still lead to sensitive fire
weather conditions across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast.
The east coast sea breeze will likely form near to south of the
Cape, but will be delayed, switching winds to the southeast this
afternoon. This is forecast to keep Min RH values just above
critical values along the immediate coast where the sea breeze is
able to form. Dispersion will be very good to excellent today, which
may lead to control issues.

A weak front pushes into the north central Florida tomorrow before
lifting northward into the weekend. This will increase moisture,
keeping RH values above critical values, but will also help generate
isolated to scattered lightning storms, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours from late week into this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, Thursday,
May 7th:

Site           May 7
Daytona      93 (1952)
Leesburg     94 (1984)
Sanford      94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1915)
Melbourne    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  97  74  86  73 /   0  10  20  20
MCO  96  74  92  74 /   0  10  40  30
MLB  94  75  88  77 /   0   0  20  20
VRB  95  72  89  77 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  94  74  91  73 /   0  10  40  10
SFB  97  73  92  73 /   0  10  40  30
ORL  96  74  92  74 /   0  10  40  30
FPR  94  71  90  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion