Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

615
FXUS62 KMLB 082347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
747 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms, with one or two strong
  storms this evening along the sea breeze collision

- High risk of rip currents continues at area beaches, entering
  the surf is strongly discouraged

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible through
  Wednesday, especially across the interior

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Now-Tonight...Sunshine and scattered cumulus are in abundance this
afternoon across east central Florida. After some morning fog,
temperatures have quickly climbed into the low to mid 80s as
breezy to gusty onshore flow continues. We have seen a few showers
on radar since late morning, mainly staying close to the coast
where the east coast breeze is trying to get its start. It remains
a bit diffuse for now but should organize a bit better by mid
afternoon, moving slowly inland and colliding with the west coast
breeze. As convective temperatures are reached, the sea breezes
collide over ECFL, and a weakening mid level impulse moves over
north FL, shower/storm development is expected to increase.

RAP analysis shows mid level temps around -11C with soundings
revealing a lot of dry air in the column. This is leading to DCAPE
values around 1000+ J/kg and would be a concern for stronger wind
gusts with organized convection. Some small to marginally severe
hail cannot be ruled out either if storms grow and maintain
organized updrafts. The prime time for storms looks to be from 5
PM to 10 PM, particularly from the I-4 corridor south to the
Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee. Steering flow will slowly
push rain and lightning storms toward the east coast, though it is
less certain how much activity actually makes it to coastal
communities before dissipating prior to midnight.

As conditions dry out, temperatures will fall into the 60s
overnight. At least some patchy fog is possible over portions of
ECFL early Monday, with locally dense fog not out of the
question...especially where rain occurs this evening.

Monday-Saturday (modified)...Surface high pressure remains near
or across the central FL peninsula into Wed, then gets shunted
south/east in favor of an advancing cold front that will push
across ECFL on Thu. Weak high pressure builds behind the front as
winds veer onshore (NE/E) Thu night/Fri, continuing onshore into
the weekend. Leading up to this into mid-week with a weaker
pressure gradient in place, variable morning winds will transition
gradually to onshore with daily sea breeze formation. Lighter
winds in the low levels will likely promote a better chance for
patchy (dense) fog development across the area Tue/Wed mornings. A
15-20% chance for showers exists on Mon (lightning chances too
low to mention). Mostly dry conditions Tue/Wed. SCT-NMRS showers
and ISOLD storms (40-60%) forecast with aforementioned boundary on
Thu. Residual moisture behind the front remains with a 15-30%
chance for showers on Fri, mainly south of Orlando, with sea
breeze activity promoting a 15-30% chance areawide on Sat.

Well above normal temperatures continue thru Thu. with some spots
flirting with records (in the U80s to around 90F) each day across
the interior. On Thursday prior to the front and increased
rain/storm chances, we expect L80s across the I-4 corridor with
M-U80s southward. Fri will be closer to seasonal values with
mainly 70s, except L80s across our far western areas. Temps
rebound Saturday, reaching the U70s/M80s. Overnight lows will
remain mild in the 60s areawide thru Thu morning. Briefly cooler
air returns Fri morning. Lows in the U50s to L60s generally for
Sat/Sun mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

High pressure is forecast to remain in place over the local Atlantic
through the middle of the week, promoting light southerly (variable
at times) winds turning onshore each afternoon. Winds freshen
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of an approaching
front, then increase quickly behind the front Thursday afternoon and
evening from north to south. Poor to hazardous boating conditions
are expected as early as Wednesday night and continuing through
late week.

For tonight, isolated showers over the waters this afternoon will
give way to offshore-moving (and decaying) showers/storms this
evening. Gusty winds, lightning strikes, hail, and brief heavy
rainfall are possible with the strongest storms. A very low chance
for showers exists Monday with mostly dry conditions forecast
Tuesday and Wednesday.

3-5 ft waves continue through Wednesday before increasing along and
behind Thursday`s cold front, reaching 5-8 ft late Thursday night.
Seas then subside Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Boundary collision occurring early this evening is supporting SCT
TSRA from near or just east of DAB-SFB-MCO-ISM. Activity will
push toward the ENE and reach TIX and possibly MLB thru 02Z-03Z.
Areas that see rain will have a relatively higher threat for fog
late tonight/early Monday. Have inserted prevailing IFR conds at
LEE starting at 09Z and a TEMPO for MVFR conds at MCO/SFB where
NBM probabilities have increased 50-60% for IFR CIGs. On Mon, LEE
should be slow to return to VFR conds (by 16Z-17Z); otherwise,
mainly VFR with light and variable winds turning ESE at coastal
terminals behind the sea breeze early in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  84  64  84 /  40  10   0  10
MCO  66  87  67  88 /  50  20  10  10
MLB  65  83  66  83 /  30  20  10  10
VRB  65  84  65  84 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  65  86  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  65  88  66  88 /  50  20   0  10
ORL  66  88  68  88 /  50  20  10  10
FPR  64  85  63  84 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion