Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

248
FXUS62 KMLB 131820
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Cooler but pleasant this afternoon with lower rain chances
  mainly focused along the Treasure Coast. Breezy onshore winds
  will cause poor to hazardous boating conditions and a high risk
  of life-threatening rip currents at our beaches.

- Deeper moisture returns this weekend through at least Monday,
  leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms. There is a
  low chance for a few strong, gusty storms with locally heavy
  rain and coin-sized hail.

- A strong cold front is slated to push across the state late
  Monday, leading to much cooler weather for the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Current-Tonight...Clouds and light precip (south) across the area,
have kept afternoon temperatures down a bit, but we may still
realize U70s (coast) to L80s inland. The former cold frontal
boundary lies across the southern FL peninsula early this
afternoon where it continues to diminish in identity. Zonal flow
aloft will continue across the region thru this period with 500 mb
temps near -11C. Deepest moisture remains over south FL, with
highest PWATs near 1.50 inches across Okeechobee and the Treasure
Coast. Generally dry conditions across the I-4 corridor, with
highest PoP chances toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure
Coast (20-50%) this afternoon and early evening. Isolated
lightning storm chances will also be possible southward. Will
continue to monitor for any locally heavy bands of precip (low
risk), should they develop across the far south. Otherwise expect
northeast winds 10-15 mph, occasionally breezy 15 mph with higher
gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts.

Will need to watch later tonight, esp across the Treasure Coast, as
models suggest northward-moving convection extending inland toward
the Kissimmee Basin as some locally heavy downpours will be
possible. Some of this (low-topped) activity along the coast may esp
be efficient at producing precip. Onshore flow becomes light this
evening with mins forecast in the 60s areawide.

Weekend...An unsettled weather pattern emerges as moisture surges
back northward across the area. The flow aloft "backs" SWRLY with
occasional embedded shortwave impulses (esp Sun) traversing the
area. 500 mb temps fall slightly to between -12C and -13C. A diffuse
sea breeze will develop on Sat within the ERLY flow and perhaps a
more defined sea breeze on Sun along the Space/Treasure coasts with
a stronger late day collision across the eastern FL peninsula. SCT-
NMRS shower and lightning storm potential for Sat with highest PoPs
(40-70%) across the southern two-thirds, and again may have to watch
for nocturnal convection along the Space/Treasure coasts Sat
overnight. On Sun, deepest moisture late in the day (PWATs 1.80")
just inland from the Space/Treasure coasts, with areawide PoPs set
at 65-80%. While showers will be possible each morning, highest
coverage is expected in the afternoon/early evening each day.

Previous...Some of our early-arriving hi-res guidance for this
weekend supports a max rainfall potential of 2-4" in isolated spots,
with areal averages in the 0.5-1.25" range. While chances appear low
and isolated, the environment may support a few strong storms with
coin-sized hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph this weekend,
particularly on Sun.

Temperatures continue above normal in the U70s to L80s areawide on
Sat, then L-M80s for Sun. Min temps still well into the 60s at
night.

Previous extended forecast discussion slightly modified...

Mon-Tue...A strong cold front remains poised to approach the state
during the early portion of the work-week, leading to another round
of showers and lightning storms (75-90%) on Mon. If the timing of
the front coincides with peak heating and instability, a few strong
and gusty storms may become a threat. Expect breezy and unusually
warm conditions ahead of the front.

The front is most likely to pass through ECFL late Mon into very
early Tue, with colder air quickly filtering in behind it.
Statistical guidance suggests that highs in the L-M80s on Mon will
give way to highs in the U50s to U60s on Tue (north to south), as
guidance has come in even cooler with the 12Z model guidance. Breezy
northerly winds on Tue will make it feel even cooler. Lows are
forecast to dip as cold as the L-M40s northwest of Orlando, with the
chilliest conditions Tue night. Lowest wind chills each night
(Tue/Wed mornings) could approach U30s in rural parts of north
Lake/north Volusia.

Wed-Fri...The big question mark remains if rain chances will linger
through mid-week. Around 30-40% of members retain additional energy
at the base of a slow-moving trough over the Eastern U.S., which
would support lingering shower chances. A small majority of the
members suggest a cleaner frontal passage with drier conditions from
late Tue onward.

Many ensemble members, but not all, are dry by Thu and especially
next Fri. Slow temperature moderation is forecast. Below-normal
highs in the M-U60s to L70s (south) on Wed should rise closer to
normal (M-U70s) by next Fri. There is downside potential for
temperatures mid-week if clouds and showers are more prevalent.
Still expect some fine-tuning to this part of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue into this evening,
as winds/seas (slower) gradually diminish. High pressure builds
across the southeast U.S. and into the western Atlc the next day
or so. This will keep winds NERLY thru Sat. Onshore veering flow
continues into Sat night-Sun, southerly into Sun night-Mon, with
the next (strong) cold front arriving Mon night into early Tue.
Seas 4-6 ft near shore subsiding to 4-5 ft thru the afternoon.
Gulf stream 5-8 ft continuing to diminish to 5-6 ft late overnight.
Wind speeds AOB 15 kts into early Sun, but then build later on
Sun thru early next week as the pgrad strengthens with the
approach of the next low pressure system. This will signal a
likely return to poor to hazardous boating conditions late Sun
into mid next week.

Scattered-numerous rain and isolated lightning storm chances
developing thru Sat night, then increasing further into Sun-Mon
night. Storm threats include lightning strikes, gusty winds in
excess of 34 kts, heavy downpours, and small to coin-size hail
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

SCT-BKN 020-035 CIGs struggling to lift this afternoon, and look
to persist through much of the TAF period. This afternoon,
prevailing BKN035 or so with occasional drops to high-MVFR, and
may need to AMD some TEMPOs if impacts become more persistent.
Onshore moving SHRA has backed off for a bit and sea breeze
collision driven SHRA/TSRA later this evening expect to remain
well south/west of the ECFL terminals. Tonight, keeping TAFs VFR
for now but there is potential for CIGs to drop to MVFR, and low
(20% or less) chances for IFR impacts. Onshore moving SHRA returns
after 01Z or so, and could reach the inland terminals after 08Z.
SHRA chances further increase after 12Z. Any MVFR-IFR CIGs that
develop over night could linger to around 15Z, and another near-
MVFR deck likely Saturday afternoon. Easterly winds 8-13 kts could
become gusty at times this afternoon, before settling down to 5-10
kts overnight, then returning to 8-13 kts Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  78  65  83 /  20  40  50  70
MCO  66  80  67  85 /  20  60  40  80
MLB  66  79  67  83 /  30  60  50  80
VRB  66  80  66  83 /  40  70  60  70
LEE  64  81  65  85 /  10  50  30  80
SFB  64  80  65  86 /  20  50  40  80
ORL  66  81  66  85 /  20  50  40  80
FPR  65  81  65  83 /  40  70  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion