Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

875
FXUS62 KMLB 151814
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
214 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Very warm this weekend with temperatures in the 80s to near 90
  degrees, breezy/gusty conditions this afternoon becoming windy
  on Sunday

- A strong, northward-flowing longshore current and moderate risk
  of rip currents exists at the beaches

- Strong cold front arrives late Sunday, preceded by showers and
  lightning storms; a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms
  exists from Palm Bay - Kissimmee Prairie northward

- Temperatures range from slightly below normal to slightly above
  normal next week as drier air keeps rain chances away

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Current-Tonight...A warm afternoon with highs near 80F to L80s along
the coast and M-U80s into the interior with gusty SERLY winds
sustained 15-20 mph, except 20-25 mph along the coast - gusts to 30-
35 mph along the coast. Aloft, previous shortwave ridging overhead
continues to drift seaward with the approach of a large mid-level
trough across the central CONUS. At the surface, weak surface
ridging is drifting further south/east away from the area as a
strong cold front pushes across the Deep South and into the western
FL Panhandle by around sunrise Sun morning. Winds remain elevated
into tonight, 10-15 mph, a little higher along the coast and
continued gusty at times. Conditions remain mostly dry, save for an
ISOLD shower across the local coastal waters. Overnight lows mild
and in the U60s with a few L70s possible along the coast. See
Climate section below for potential records into Sun.

Sun-Mon...Modified Previous Discussion...A potent weather system
will be on the move Sun morning, reaching the Florida Panhandle and
western Carolinas near sunrise. A line (or broken line) of showers
and lightning storms is forecast to precede a strong cold front,
with some of this activity potentially being strong to severe. Prior
to rain and storms arriving to east central Florida later on Sun, a
very warm and windy day is anticipated. Modeled 925mb (S-SW) winds
are strongest along and north of the I-4 corridor. It is in these
locations, and at the immediate coast, that frequent gusts of 30-35
mph are forecast. Farther south across the interior, gusts 20-25 mph
will be common. Lesser cloud cover from Orlando/Melbourne southward
will boost temperatures into the U80s to around 90 degrees (near
record highs). Farther north, clouds will be on the increase, so
temps will likely hit a ceiling in the M-U80s. Still, these values
are about 10 degrees above normal for mid March.

By Sun mid to late afternoon, CAMs suggest a broken of line of
showers and lightning storms will stretch from near Jacksonville to
the Nature Coast. The environment south and east of this line will
be moistening (PW 1.5-1.7"+) and characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor (6C/km), accompanied by
30-40 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. A Marginal Risk of severe storms
encompasses the northern two-thirds of east central Florida,
extending as far south as Palm Bay and the Kissimmee Prairie
Preserve. The primary impacts from lightning storms late Sun
afternoon and evening will be strong wind gusts and marginally
severe hail. The probability for tornadoes is less than 2% right
now, owing to a lack in directional shear. Storm strength and
persistence is a bigger question heading into Sun night, as showers
and storms push south. Additional CAM guidance over the next 24
hours will hopefully help add to confidence of storm timing and
potential through early Mon morning.

Drier air works in behind the cold front, spreading across the area
from north to south on Mon. Breezy/gusty northwest winds will remain
in play, ushering in cooler temperatures (L-M70s) Mon afternoon.
Temperatures drop quickly after sunset Mon evening, falling into the
M40s to L50s by daybreak Tue.

Tue-Sat...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...A period of mostly
dry weather is forecast for the remainder of the week, as
temperatures seesaw from slightly below normal to slightly above
normal. The warmest days of the week look to be on Wednesday and
Thursday, prior to another cold front moving through Thursday night.
Ensembles are mostly dry with this frontal passage, though the
potential for a light shower Thursday afternoon/evening will be
monitored in future forecasts. Temps fall below normal on Friday
before rebounding next weekend, returning to near or slightly above
normal values. Mainly zonal flow aloft across the region with
mid to upper trough activity remaining well north of ECFL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Poor boating conditions into early this afternoon will become
hazardous areawide late this afternoon into tonight. Poor to
hazardous boating is anticipated into the extended, most notably
offshore into next week. A Small Craft Advisory begins late this
afternoon 20Z/4PM for all of the local waters, lasting through at
least Sunday evening, before hazardous conditions retreat to the
offshore waters.

Increasingly gusty SE winds freshen to 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.
Higher gusts around 25-30 kt build over the waters Sun as the
pressure gradient continues to tighten ahead of an approaching
strong cold front. Showers and lightning storms will increase from
north to south late Sun afternoon and night, pushing south of the
waters Mon morning. Winds veer NW behind the front on Mon and
gradually turn N/NE into Tue, before veering onshore briefly with
speeds decreasing Wed.

Seas gradually build this afternoon 3-5 ft, reaching 4-7 ft by Sun
morning. Wave heights briefly decrease behind the front early on Mon
but build back late Mon aftn/night into Tue, 5-9 ft. Swell remains 5-
7 ft in the Gulf Stream through Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Breezy SE
winds 15 KT with G25 KT this afternoon. The sea breeze will
enhance the winds at coastal terminals 18-20 KT with G26-28 KT
later this afternoon. Gusts will diminish after sunset, especially
over interior terminals (MCO), but some gusts may linger along
the coast at times overnight. Winds will become more southerly
tonight and increase to 20 KT with G26 KT by 14Z on Sunday.
Showers and storms out ahead of an approaching cold front will
start to push into our northern areas late Sunday afternoon. Have
introduced VCSH starting at 17Z at LEE, and at 18Z at MCO, with
VCTS starting at 21Z at MCO. TEMPOS will likely be added in later
TAF packages.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

This Afternoon...Relative humidity values this afternoon in the
upper 30s to lower 40s, combined with breezy/gusty southeast
winds, will produce sensitive fire conditions (especially across
the interior).

Next Week...Drier air returns to central Florida next week with
near critical to critical humidity values forecast Monday,
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. As a result, sensitive fire
weather conditions may develop, especially west of the I-95
corridor. Breezy/gusty conditions on Monday will enhance fire
sensitivities and Red Flag criteria is looking increasingly likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Record high, warm low, and normal information for east central Florida
climate sites:

             RECORD           RECORD     RECORD   NORMAL
     DATE    HIGH     DATE    WARM LOW   HIGH     HI LO
DAB  15-Mar  89 2016  16-Mar  69 1990    90 2009  77 55
LEE  15-Mar  88 2020  16-Mar  68 2016    87 2016  78 54
SFB  15-Mar  90 1971  16-Mar  68 2024    90 2016  78 54
MCO  15-Mar  91 1971  16-Mar  70 1902    94 1921  79 56
MLB  15-Mar  90 2008  16-Mar  69 2008    90 1975  78 57
VRB  15-Mar  92 1962  16-Mar  73 1990    89 2005  79 58
FPR  15-Mar  90 1962  16-Mar  71 2008    90 1918  80 57

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  84  56  71 /   0  70  50   0
MCO  69  87  60  70 /   0  60  60   0
MLB  68  85  60  74 /   0  40  70  10
VRB  68  86  61  76 /   0  30  70  10
LEE  68  85  56  70 /   0  70  40   0
SFB  68  87  58  72 /   0  70  60   0
ORL  69  87  59  72 /   0  60  60   0
FPR  68  86  62  76 /   0  20  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion