Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

564
FXUS62 KMLB 220521
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
121 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents
  continue at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use
  caution at the beach and avoid entering the water.

- Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend; very
  windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions, a risk for
  more beach erosion and minor coastal flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Mostly sunny conditions across the Florida Peninsula as of early
this afternoon. The atmosphere is dry with this mornings 12z
sounding indicating 0.94 inches of PW. These PW values are down
around the 10th percentile of climatology for mid-October. There is
still a small chance for a few showers offshore and across far
southeastern portions of the forecast area where the moisture is a
little bit higher.

In the upper levels, there is a longwave trough that extends from
the Mid-Atlantic southward into the western Caribbean. At the
surface, high pressure over the northeastern U.S. is leading to
northeasterly winds across the region. There are some fluctuations to
the upper air and surface patterns but overall conditions remain
relatively similar into early next week.

The northeasterly winds will be the main impact throughout the
forecast period. Northeasterly winds are already elevated across the
area. These winds really look to increase over the weekend as the
surface high to the northeast drifts to the south. This will lead to
an increase in the pressure gradient across the region and
increasing winds. Wind Advisories may be necessary, at least for the
coast. These windy conditions will continue into early next week.

These strong winds will also occur with higher than normal tides and
produce additional hazard with beach erosion, rough surf, minor
coastal flooding, and dangerous rip current.

Highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s throughout the forecast
period with lows generally in the 60s. Dry conditions will feature
throughout much of the forecast period except for over the weekend.
PoPs increase to around 50-60% mainly along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A small craft advisory remains in effect with gusty northeasterly
winds continuing. Winds will increase over the weekend along with an
increase in the chances for showers as well. Northeasterly winds
will increase over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens.
These winds will approach Gale force. Wave heights increase to 12-15
ft by late Sat  leading to dangerous marine conditions. These
elevated seas continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mostly dry, with some
VCSH continuing near SUA this morning, though there is some
indication that it could continue beyond 17Z though chances remain
low. NNE winds continue through this morning and into the
afternoon hours, with wind speeds increasing to 10-12 knots. Gusts
up to 20 knots cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Winds diminish
beyond 00Z, falling to around 5 knots while remaining out of the
NNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  65  78  68 /   0   0  20  20
MCO  80  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  68  81  70 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  82  68  83  69 /  10  10  30  20
LEE  78  59  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  80  65 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  80  61  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  67  82  69 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion