Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

203
FXUS62 KMLB 201919
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
319 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Hazardous surf and a high risk for rip currents continuing at
  area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the
  beach and avoid entering the water.

- Shower chances modestly increase Wednesday along the coast, then
  drier again Thursday. Rain chances ramp up again this weekend.

- Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend; very
  windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions and a risk for
  more beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Thru Thu...High pressure over the eastern US will maintain a north
to northeast wind flow across our area. The pressure gradient
will support 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph with occasional gusts
up to 30 mph possible Wed. Less gustiness on Thu. A slug of
slightly higher PWAT (~1.25") is forecast Wed which will produce
more stratocumulus clouds and an uptick in Atlc showers pushing
onshore. Drier air makes another push south Thursday, limiting
rain chances so most of the area will stay dry Thursday. Max temps
will be very seasonable Wed in the low to mid 80s, and slightly
cooler on Thu. Min temps will be generally in the 60s with upper
50s north of I 4. There is a chance Sanford and/or Orlando may dip
below 60F for the first time this season one of these mornings.

Fri-Mon...Northeast pressure gradient re-tightens as high pressure
builds south across the mid Atlc and low pressure develops near or
NE of the Bahamas along an old frontal boundary. 12z ECM/GFS
guidance continues to show a 8-10mb delta between JAX/MIA which
would produce very windy conditions Sat-Sun. Sustained winds
Friday afternoon of 15-20 mph increase 20-30 mph Saturday and
Sunday with higher gusts. This would support Wind Advisories at
least for the coast. Pressure gradient starts to relax Mon and Tue
as high pressure weakens allowing winds and gusts to gradually
settle down.

These winds will produce another hazardous coastal event with
beach erosion, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents, beginning
as soon Friday. This event will also coincide with high
astronomical tides. Rain chances are less certain with the
greatest confidence in measurable precip south of Cape Canaveral
through Monday. The best chance for onshore- moving showers
arrives Saturday as a surge of higher PWAT pushes onshore from
the Atlantic. Max temps in the upper 70s/low 80s but overnight
lows warm, holding in the mid 60s interior and low 70s (even mid
70s) coast due to stronger onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Despite winds and seas starting to decrease/subside, Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect. Winds have largely dropped below the
20 kt threshold for SCA but seas will be very slow to drop below 7
FT due to the N/NE trajectory. Fast, onshore- moving showers are
possible again Wednesday, focused mainly south on Thursday, and
then increasing in coverage by the weekend. By Friday afternoon
and continuing into the weekend, high pressure to the north
quickly strengthens and tightens the surface pressure gradient
once again. Strong to near Gale force ENE winds are forecast to
develop as rain chances increase from south to north. Seas build
12-15 ft by late Saturday, creating dangerous marine conditions.
Numerous showers with an isolated storm or two will focus this
weekend south of Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with north-
northeasterly flow in place. Expect north-northeast winds at
12kts-15kts with gusts up to 18kts-22kts before weakening tonight.
Winds will increase after 15Z WED from the north-northeast at
12kts-14kts with gusts up to 18kts-20kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  80  62  77 /   0  20   0   0
MCO  61  82  61  80 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  67  82  69  80 /  10  20  10   0
VRB  66  84  68  82 /  10  20  10   0
LEE  60  80  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  81  60  79 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  60  82  61  80 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  65  83  69  82 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Fehling

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion