Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

276
FXUS62 KMLB 291900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northern east central Florida
  today, with heat indices up to 110 degrees. Know the signs and
  symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke!

- The potential exists for a few strong storms over the next
  several days, as well as isolated severe storms Thursday and
  Friday

- Coverage of showers and storms increases Thursday and into the
  weekend; A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists Thursday
  through Saturday with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall forecast

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Currently-Thursday... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers
and lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast which have
produce some gusty winds to around 30-40mph. GOES-16 satellite
imagery and local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy
skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts show a
mid/upper low over the northeastern US with a shortwave trough
over northern Florida. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge axis is well
to the east- Southeast of east central Florida. There`s a wide
range of current temperatures currently across east central due to
rain cooled air over much of the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee
county; temperatures are in the low 80s to mid 90s. Dew points are
in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with heat index values
generally between 100F-108F degrees (hottest across the north).
Winds are breezy from the west- southwest at 10-20mph with gusts
to 20-25mph.

Isolated to scattered slow generally east moving showers (30-50%
chance) and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and
evening with the greatest chances to the south of the Orlando
Metro. The main hazards with this afternoon and evening lightning
storms are occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts to
40-60mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+ in 30-60 mins). A line
of scattered to numerous showers (30-70% chance) and storms are
forecast to move south-southeast across east central Florida
mainly after 4AM across areas north of I-4 before tracking
southwards and reaching the Treasure Coast by the afternoon hours.
Guidance is not in good agreement on the timing, as well as the
coverage of showers, especially the CAMs. However, they have come
into better agreement than yesterday with the FV3 and NAMNest
showing a solution closer to the HRRR.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms has been
outlooked over far northern Lake county, as well as Volusia
counties through 8AM Thursday. The potential exists for isolated
strong to severe storms capable of wind gusts up to 60mph,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (up to 2-4" with a 1 in 10
chance in excess of 4" up to 4-6") which has the potential to
result in flooding. For this reason, a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall (5-14% chance) exists on Thursday. Afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s are
forecast.

Friday-Saturday... A similar forecast is expected on Friday with a
stationary boundary over the Deep South and weak low pressure over
Georgia. However confidence in the timing of east- southeast
moving scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms is
rather low. The greatest chance (50-70%) for scattered to numerous
showers and storms is Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
However, global models and CAMs disagree again on the timing with
the CAMs mostly not showing much overnight into Friday morning and
the global models showing a scenario similar to tonight`s.
Guidance indicates MLCAPE up to 3,000 J/kg on Friday, 0-6km shear
up to 20-40kts, areas of PVA traversing ECFL, and a LLJ up to
25kts. The potential exists for strong to severe storms on Friday
(greatest potential across northern ECFL). Scattered to numerous
showers (60-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast on
Saturday. Winds will remain gusts from the west- southwest
generally at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Additionally, the
potential exists for strong storms on Saturday. Near normal highs
and above normal lows are expected.

Sunday-Wednesday... The active weather pattern is expected to
continue on Sunday with a mid/upper level trough over the
southern US. WSW flow weakens into next week which will allow the
east coast sea breeze to develop on Monday before flow becomes
easterly Tuesday and Wednesday. The NBM probability of
precipitation (PoPs) remains high through Sunday with near to
below normal rain chances Monday through Wednesday as drier air
filters in over east central Florida. Scattered to numerous
showers (60%-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast on
Sunday with rain chances gradually diminishing into next week.
Near to slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast with
near to above normal low temperatures through Monday with slightly
warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Currently-Tonight... Choppy to hazardous boating conditions are
expected with WSW winds at 10-15kts nearshore and 15-20kts
offshore (20-60nm) Seas to 2-3ft nearshore and to 3-4ft up to 5 ft
far offshore are the Volusia to Brevard county waters are
forecast. Strong offshore moving storms capable of wind gusts to
34kts or greater are forecast this afternoon and tonight,
especially north of Cape Canaveral tonight. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution offshore.

Thursday-Monday (modified previous discussion)... High coverage
of showers and storms persists through the weekend with activity
moving eastward and offshore, especially Thursday morning and
into the afternoon. Despite this, boating conditions improve as SW
flow slackens to 15 kts or less through Saturday. The ridge axis
moves northward into early next week, which will back winds S.
Wind speeds are forecast to reach 15-20 kts at times, mainly
offshore. Shower and storm coverage returns to near normal by
Monday. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will shift eastward and
offshore through this afternoon and early evening across east
central Florida. Greatest coverage looks to remain focused south of
Orlando, but still can`t rule out brief IFR/MVFR impacts from this
activity even across northern portions of east central Florida. Have
VCTS for all sites through 22-00Z, with TEMPO MVFR impacts mentioned
at KVRB-KSUA through 20-21Z. Gusty winds up to 35-45 knots will be
possible from some of the stronger storms. As this activity
diminishes into tonight, there is still the potential for another
band of showers/storms approaching KLEE/KDAB late tonight (near 09Z)
and spreading southward as it weakens, with scattered to numerous
showers and storms then initiating into the late morning and
afternoon tomorrow. This activity will continue tempo IFR/MVFR
impacts.

Southwest winds of 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots will
diminish to 5-10 knots tonight and increase again to 10-15 knots
into Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  91  75  91 /  50  70  50  70
MCO  78  91  77  92 /  40  70  50  70
MLB  77  91  76  90 /  20  70  30  70
VRB  75  92  74  91 /  10  60  30  70
LEE  78  90  77  91 /  70  70  60  70
SFB  78  91  77  91 /  50  70  50  70
ORL  78  91  77  91 /  50  70  50  70
FPR  75  91  74  90 /  10  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-
     144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion