Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

605
FXUS62 KMLB 091120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Aside from patchy morning fog, tranquil weather continues
  through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. A High Risk of
  life-threatening rip currents continues at Atlantic beaches of
  Central Florida.

- Scattered showers and a few storms return on Wednesday. Along a
  cold front, a few additional showers are forecast from late
  Thursday into early Friday. Widespread heavy rain is not
  expected, with a 10-20% chance of amounts exceeding a half inch.

- The coolest air so far this autumn season is expected to arrive
  next weekend. From Greater Orlando and north, there is a 30-40%
  chance of wind chills reaching the upper 30s Saturday and
  Sunday morning.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last
  week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river
  forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Modified continental air has settled over the Southeast and Florida,
with a sprawling high-pressure area extending from Georgia to
northern Texas. Near- to below-normal total moisture exists across
much of the Southeast this morning. The surface high should move
little over the next 48 hours, ensuring continued subsidence early
this week.

Right now, a split-flow jet stream configuration exists over CONUS,
with a well-defined subtropical jet extending from an upper low
over the Chihuahuan Desert to North Florida. Guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement regarding upper-air pattern evolution
over the next few days, resulting in a few forecast adjustments. A
ripple of energy from this disturbance is now expected to eject
slightly earlier, arriving over Florida by late Wednesday. Moisture
is expected to increase slightly above normal as it passes.

The polar jet dominates the upper-level pattern across North
America, with relatively weak troughs over the Northeast U.S. and
Eastern Pacific. Ensemble guidance favors a largely stationary
Rossby wave pattern over the next week or so. However, substantial
amplification is anticipated as high-latitude blocking develops,
turning both the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) negative. As a 200+ kt Pacific jet streak deepens
a trough over the E Pacific, downstream ridging is expected to
amplify across the West, with a deep trough subsequently developing
over the Eastern U.S. beginning late Wednesday.

Surface cyclogenesis is forecast by Wednesday night over the Ohio
Valley, en route to becoming a nor`easter off of the Jersey Shore
by early Friday. Its accompanying cold front will be quickly sent
southward, passing through Florida by Thursday night. Behind it,
much drier and cooler air will be advected over the state, with
PWAT values falling to 30% of normal and 925 mb temperatures
dipping to +7 deg C by Saturday.

From Sunday into Monday, the large trough over the East Coast is
expected to move slowly into the Atlantic. Upper-level convergence
behind the trough should allow high pressure to drift toward the
Appalachians by next Monday, with boundary-layer flow gradually
turning onshore and moderation commencing.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tuesday...

With high soil moisture and light winds, patchy dense fog may
develop this morning. Above the surface, RH values decrease,
so the fog may be shallow. We will monitor this through the
early morning hours. If you encounter fog, slow down and use your
low-beam headlights. We may see a bit of fog again early Tuesday,
but the chances look a little lower than today.

Otherwise, a mix of clouds and sunshine continues with predominantly
dry weather as we begin the work week. Pleasant temperatures
continue with coolish mornings (upper 50s-upper 60s) and warm
afternoons (low 80s).

A lingering easterly swell will produce numerous, life-threatening
rip currents at our beaches through at least today. Please stay
out of the ocean!

Wednesday - Friday...

As mentioned in the overview, a pocket of subtropical jet
stream energy is now expected to arrive a little sooner. One
consequence is an increase in shower and storm chances on Wednesday
(30-40%), mainly in the afternoon and evening. There is still
some disagreement, particularly regarding moisture return and
instability. We will need to keep an eye on this: if adequate
instability is present, moderate effective shear associated with
the subtropical jet may yield a couple of strong storms. The
more likely scenario is scattered rain and isolated general lightning
storms. Highs should reach the low 80s once more.

Expect more cloudiness on Thursday with a continued low chance of
showers. Then, a strong cold front should pass through the area
on Thursday night. Some additional showers may accompany this
front through early Friday, particularly south of Orlando. Expect
slightly cooler temps reaching the upper 70s on Thursday
afternoon. Through early Friday, widespread heavy rainfall is not
forecast, but there is a low chance for tallies of 1/2" to 1".

Dry conditions are forecast by Friday afternoon with slowly thinning
clouds from north to south. West-northwest winds are expected to
gust from 15 to 25 mph, with cooler high temps in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Saturday - next Monday...

A pressure gradient between the nor`easter and high pressure over
the Missouri Valley is expected to cause chilly northwesterly flow
over the peninsula from Friday night through early Sunday. This will
send the coolest air so far this fall into Central Florida. Saturday
and Sunday mornings look to be the coldest, with lows in the
mid/upper 40s over all but the immediate Space/Treasure Coasts
(low/mid 50s). Due to a lingering breeze, wind chills should
fall into the low/mid 40s over areas near and north of Greater
Orlando. The colder end of guidance has continued to trend downward,
with a 30-40% chance of wind chills reaching the upper 30s generally
near and northwest of Interstate 4 both mornings.

Despite mostly sunny skies, breezy and cool afternoons are in
store. Highs on Saturday should range from the low to mid 60s,
except maybe some upper 60s south of Vero Beach. We should be
able to tack on about 5 degrees by late Sunday, with some 70s
reappearing down south. Most areas should return to the low/mid
70s by next Monday.

While most of the guidance is dry early next week, there are a few
solutions that show a stronger disturbance in the subtropical jet
stream which would bring rain chances back sooner. Something to
keep an eye on for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

High pressure will drift closer to Central Florida through
Wednesday. A long-period easterly swell will linger, but seas will
generally subside through midweek. A strong cold front is forecast
to reach the waters by Thursday night, with fresh northwesterly
flow behind the front beginning Friday. Poor to hazardous boating
conditions are expected from Friday into at least Saturday.

N to NNW winds today 5-12 kt, turning NE at the coast with
the afternoon sea breeze. Light and variable winds tonight and
Tuesday, except easterly up to 10 kt on Tuesday afternoon along
the coast. Winds turn southerly to southwesterly on Wednesday,
then increase to 15-20 kt out of the southwest late Thursday ahead
of the front. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore through Tuesday, up to 6 ft
well offshore. Seas subside to 2-4 ft on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 605 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VSBY (MVFR/IFR) reductions possible early this morning surrounding
terminals across the I-4 corridor. LIFR VSBY reductions at LEE.
VFR and dry conds otherwise. Light/variable winds across the
interior, transitioning onshore in the afternoon along the coast
up to 10 kts. Could be a rinse/repeat for VSBY reductions late
tonight/Tuesday morning N/W of I-4 again.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise over the next several
days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) appears to be
reaching Major flood stage early this morning, with Geneva (GENF1)
approaching Major flood stage by the weekend. River forecasts out
five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast
Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online
at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  63  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  68  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  84  68  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  82  62  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  62  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  83  63  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion