Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

440
FXUS62 KMLB 191101
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
701 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend and next
  week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 7 PM today.
  Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and stay cool
  in the shade or air conditioning each day.

- Rain and Storm chances remain high today and tomorrow with a
  Marginal Risk (5-14%) for Severe Storms today, as well as a
  Marginal Risk (5-14%) for Excessive Rainfall today and tomorrow;
  the potential for flooding of urban and low lying areas exists
  today and tomorrow.

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.
  Remember to swim near a lifeguard and to never enter the water
  alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather over east
central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations
indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies. Analysis charts show the
western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida with a
mid/upper level shortwave trough over the southeastern US. Current
temperatures are in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the
mid to upper 70s.

Scattered to numerous east-southeast moving showers (40-70%) and
storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours
as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the
west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous
showers/storms. Southwest winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15-20mph
are expected to back east-southeast, mainly to the south of Volusia
county and to the east-southeast of the Orlando Metro into this
afternoon and evening with the development of the east coast sea
breeze. Hi-res and deterministic guidance shows PVA lobes pivoting
along and ahead of the base of a mid/upper level shortwave that is
expected to track east over the southeastern US and northern Florida
this afternoon and evening. Guidance shows MLCAPE between 2,000-
3,500 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 20-50kts, 3km EHI up to 1-4 today,
SHIP up to 1.0, isolated spots of 3km helicity up to 200-350
m^2/S^2, SCP up to 1-6, STP up to 1, absolutely unstable mid-level
lapse rates, SHIP up to 1.0, and PWATs up to 2.0-2.3" this
afternoon. Thus, a Marginal Risk (5-14%) for severe storms exists,
as well as a Marginal Risk (5-14%) for Excessive Rainfall (from
Brevard county southward) with the potential for flooding of
roadways and low-lying areas. The potential exist for a few strong
to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Severe storms will have
the potential (5-14%) to produce wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to
1" in diameter, frequent to excessive lightning, heavy rainfall (1-
2" with a 1-10 chance in excess of 2" up to 3-5"). Additionally,
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along sea breeze and outflow
boundary collisions (less than 2% risk).

Afternoon highs in the mid 90s are forecast today with heat index
values up to 108-111F degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect from
11AM-7PM. Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored clothing,
shift outdoor work away from 10am to 7pm, and take frequent breaks
from the heat. Above normal (2-5F+) to record low temperatures are
forecast.

The Weekend...  A similar forecast is expected on Saturday as PVA
(vort max up to 75 1/S) over areas of east central Florida enhances
lift for strong storms to develop into the afternoon and evening
hours. Scattered to numerous east-southeast moving showers
(50-80%) and lightning storms become choppy into this evening with
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as
the east coast sea breeze pushes inland (mainly along and east-
southeast of the Orlando Metro) and converges with westerly flow
and outflow from previous showers/storms. There is the potential
for a few strong storms which will be capable of frequent to
excessive lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph, heavy rainfall
(1-2" with a 1- 10 chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up
to 3-5"), and small hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out on
Saturday (less than 2% risk). A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall (5-14%) exists on Saturday with the potential for
flooding of roadways and low- lying areas to the east of Lake and
northwest Osceola counties. On Sunday, the mid/upper level support
will have moved out of the east central Florida area and
therefore rain chances (40-60%) are forecast to decrease slightly
to end the weekend. However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled
out which will be capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-50mph, and . Temperatures will remain above normal (1-4F+)
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid to
upper 70s. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists this weekend. A
Major HeatRisk can affect anyone without adequate cooling or
hydration.

Monday-Thursday... Drier conditions are forecast into next week as
high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf of America with the
western Atlantic ridge to the east-southeast of east central
Florida. Isolated to scattered showers (20-30/40% Monday-Wednesday
and 30-50% on Thursday) and lightning storms are forecast into each
afternoon as a weak east coast sea breeze moves inland and converges
with weak west-southwest flow. Above normal (2-5F+) temperatures are
expected to continue into next week with at least a Major HeatRisk
through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to
today the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern Florida.
Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast today and Saturday (a few of which
will have the potential to become strong to severe). South-southwest
winds are forecast to back south-southeast into this afternoon at
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Winds are expected to generally veer
west on Saturday before backing onshore near the coast into the
afternoon. Seas of 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore are expected.

Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected.
Isolated to scattered generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast into Saturday and Sunday afternoons/
evenings. The potential for a few strong storms exists. Southwest
winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to generally
veer south-southeast into Sunday as a "cool" front sags across
the far northern waters or just to the north of the waters. Seas
to 1-2ft are forecast with up to 3ft on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR outside of convection at ECFL terminals. Light SW-SSW winds
early this morning increase to around 10 kts from the SW after
13Z, slowing/delaying development of the east coast sea breeze.
The boundary is forecast to make an inland push after 19Z from
KSUA-KTIX, and stay pinned near/offshore the coast to the north.
Low confidence in convective evolution this afternoon. About half
hi-res guidance develops ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA on the quick moving
west coast sea breeze as early as 17Z, while the other half are
CLR-ISO until the sea breeze collision along and near the coast
after 21Z. Hedged TS impacts at KMCO and other I-4 terminals with
PROB30, and enough confidence at KTIX-KSUA for TEMPOs. TSRA/SHRA
impacts are forecast to continue at KMLB-KSUA through 02Z, and may
linger as late as 06Z. Storm motion will be to the E-ESE. Strong
to marginally severe TS capable of 50kt gusts are possible between
19Z-02Z. Quiet after convection dissipates or pushes offshore.
Winds become light/VRB overnight. Early start and high coverage of
SHRA/TSRA forecast Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  90  74 /  50  20  70  30
MCO  97  77  94  76 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  94  78  91  76 /  70  40  70  40
VRB  94  77  92  75 /  70  40  60  30
LEE  95  78  92  76 /  40  20  50  20
SFB  96  77  94  75 /  50  30  70  20
ORL  96  78  94  76 /  50  30  60  20
FPR  94  76  91  75 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion