Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

060
FXUS62 KMLB 262330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and
  evening through the rest of the work week across Central
  Florida, with 50-70% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be
  frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and locally
  heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in
  urban and low drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing the
  Atlantic sea breeze farther inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s,
  with peak heat indices of 100 to 105 each day. When planning to
  be outdoors, hydrate well and consider taking frequent breaks in
  the shade or air conditioning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across the Atlantic and
across the TX/SW US will remain in place today, with Florida
residing between the two high pressures. Shortwave energy will
traverse near and over Florida through the day. At the surface, high
pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift northward, with the
axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, south to
southwest flow will persist, with the east coast sea breeze forecast
to form in the afternoon and push inland, turning the winds onshore.
Moisture over the local area will be near to slightly above normal
for this time of year, with PW values ranging from 1.7-2.1". this
coupled with energy aloft will support convection this afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms have already formed around the I-95
corridor this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. Additional
showers and lightning storms are forecast to form across the
interior along boundary collisions between sea breezes and outflow
boundaries by late afternoon and into the early evening. Coverage
of showers and lightning storms today will be medium to high,
with 50-60 percent chance of rain along the coast, and 60-70
percent chance of rain across the interior.

The environment supports storms with  plenty of instability (MUCAPE
1800-2500 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -7),
sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 800-1050 J/kg).  Main storm
hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and
heavy rainfall of 1-3 " which may lead to minor localized flooding
in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will
diminish around midnight, with activity across the Atlantic waters
continuing through the overnight. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
with peak heat indices of 100-105F. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 70s.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to give a tropical
wave in the Atlantic a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over
the next couple of days. While it is far too early to know whether
this feature will affect the U.S., it`s a reminder to be prepared as
we head into peak hurricane season.

Thursday-Friday... Florida will remain situated between two upper
level high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW
US, as an upper level trough shift eastward towards the eastern US.
Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base of this trough
over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula. At the
surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift
northward, with the axis remaining over Florida. Locally, offshore (S-
SW) flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph each day. The east coast
sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds
onshore (E-SE) as the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will remain
near to slightly above normal, with PW values 1.8-2.3" each day.
This will support a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of showers
and storms through the period. Highest coverage will be across the
interior each afternoon and evening where the sea breeze and outflow
boundary collisions are forecast to occur. Main storm hazards will
be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be seasonably hot and humid into late
week, with overnight lows remaining warm and muggy.

Saturday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic
and the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the
southern US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high
pressure over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards
the Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide
southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before
stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally,
winds will shift onshore (east to southeast) this weekend and remain
through at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves
northward of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain
near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon
showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with
scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea
breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the
interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior,
where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening.
Storm hazards will be similar to what they are today through late
week. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with
overnight lows warm and muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today-Sunday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected.
Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the
local waters by Thursday and moving north of the area by the
weekend. Light south to southwest flow will persist through Friday,
with winds becoming onshore (east to southeast) and increasing to
around 12 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea
breeze. Winds will then shift onshore into the weekend as the high
pressure moves north of the area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-
3ft this weekend.  A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong
wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore showers
and storms will then be possible into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

High coverage of showers/storms late this past afternoon-early
evening will continue to rain out into mid-late evening, with mostly
dry conditions overnight, but may still need to monitor for the
Treasure Coast where CAMs are showing some convection along the
coast for later tonight. Will re-access any "VC" wording or TEMPO
groups for early in the 00Z TAF package. Light morning winds, again,
will transition onshore with sea breeze formation and push inland on
Thu. The late day sea breeze collision may be further east than this
past day putting it closer to coastal TAF sites. Expect high
coverage again Thu aftn/evening for convection. Primary concerns for
aviation with Thu storms include local wind gusts 35-45 kts,
frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  91 /  30  50  30  60
MCO  75  94  76  94 /  50  60  30  60
MLB  75  91  76  91 /  30  60  20  50
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  60  20  50
LEE  74  92  75  92 /  50  60  30  60
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  30  60  30  60
ORL  75  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  60
FPR  74  91  75  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion