Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

958
FXUS62 KMLB 111900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
  Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Swim near a lifeguard,
  and never swim alone!

- Another round of showers and storms is forecast this
  afternoon/evening, with 50-80% coverage expected. Near and
  especially south of Orlando, there is a 5-10% chance of
  excessive rain amounts of 3" or greater. This will have the
  potential to result in localized flooding

- Remaining warm and muggy this afternoon with peak heat indices
  from 100 to 105 degrees along the Treasure Coast. A cold front
  will deliver less humid conditions beginning Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered generally
northeast morning showers and lightning storms mainly from Cape
Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local
observations indicate cloudy skies across east central Florida
(mainly north of the Treasure Coast). Analysis charts show a cold
front over the southeastern US, as well as northern Florida which
extends from the remnants of Hurricane Isiais near the
Kentucky/Virginia border. Temperatures are currently in the mid
70s to low 80s north of Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee and in the
mid 80s to low 90s to the south. Dew points are currently in the
mid 70s to low 80s.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to move southeast
across east central Florida tonight before reaching the Treasure
Coast into Monday morning. Scattered to numerous showers (50-80%
chance) and lightning storms are expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon/evening before rain chances diminish by
around 9PM. Guidance shows MLCAPE up to 1,000-3,000 J/kg, 0-6km
shear up to 20-30kts, PWATs at 2.3-2.5" (at the maximum percentile
for the date), a 500mb temperature of -4.6C, and a LLJ at 25kts
across northern east central Florida. The aforementioned weather
parameters are sufficient for isolated storms capable of
occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and
heavy rainfall (1-2+" in 60 minutes). There is a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for excessive rainfall with the potential for minor
flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. Expect cooler low
temperatures behind the front with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s
forecast (coolest north of I-4).

Monday-Tuesday... Drier air is expected to filter in behind the
cold front into next week with PWAT values below 1" north of the
Treasure Coast and between 1.0-2.3" across the Treasure Coast.
Modest northerly flow is forecast through Tuesday with mostly dry
weather expected as a longwave ridge builds over the eastern US.
However, isolated showers with embedded lightning cannot be ruled
over over southern St. Lucie and Martin counties on Monday. Expect
seasonable high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday... Deterministic models and LREF-clusters are
in fairly good agreement on the weather pattern through mid week
with the extent of the apex of the mid/upper ridge expected to
reach the Ohio Valley. However, deterministic models and LREF-
clusters continue to diverge in solutions towards the end of the
forecast period Friday into Saturday which is where uncertainty
in the forecast increases. Either way, a mid/upper level trough
is likely to deepen over the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday
with uncertainty in whether it deepens as far south as the
southeastern US. Moisture is expected to increase mid to late week
as onshore flow develops. Coverage of showers and lightning
storms gradually increases through the forecast period with flow
becoming northerly on Saturday. Seasonable to slightly above
normal highs are forecast with seasonable to above normal low
temperatures.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently-Tonight... Mostly favorable boating conditions are
expected through tonight. Scattered to widespread generally
offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast as a
cold front moves southeast across the waters. The potential
exists for isolated strong storms capable of winds to 34kts or
greater. South- southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts.
Seas to 2-3ft with up to 4ft offshore Volusia and Brevard county
waters are expected.

Monday-Thursday... Boating conditions are expected to improve
through the forecast period. Drier conditions are expected into
next week. Isolated to scattered showers with embedded lightning
are forecast at times through the forecast period. Expect offshore
storm motions through Monday before storm motions become onshore
into mid week with the development of onshore flow. The cold front
will turn winds northwesterly on Monday at 10-15kts with seas
remaining 3 to 4 feet with up to 5 ft over the offshore Volusia
and Brevard county waters. Seas generally at 2 to 4 feet are
expected through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A weak front will slide into central FL later this afternoon. Winds
will gradually veer to SW/W with its approach/passage becoming
WNW/NW areawide this evening/overnight. Speeds 6-12 kts becoming
around 5 kts or less this evening/overnight. The early initiation of
showers/ISOLD lightning storms across I-4 will continue to progress
south/east this afternoon/evening. TEMPO groups in place to handle
this. Multiple rounds could be observed generally south of KMCO
where greater instability/deeper moisture is present. Greatest
coverage and intensity past 18Z near KTIX/KMLB southward as activity
propagates northeastward ahead of the approaching boundary.
Lingering SHRA and ISOLD TSRA past 00Z across the southern
terminals. Drier air filters north to south across the area
overnight into Monday. NW/N winds 6-12 kts on Monday with VFR
conds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  85  66  84 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  69  86  67  87 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  71  85  69  85 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  72  86  67  86 /  30  10   0   0
LEE  66  85  66  87 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  67  86  67  86 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  68  86  68  86 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  72  85  66  86 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion