Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

407
FXUS62 KMLB 051122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
722 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Deep moisture and southwest flow will continue high afternoon
  and evening rain chances along the sea breeze collision early
  this week. Drier air will noticeably reduce rain chances mid to
  late week.

- Seasonably hot today with a warming trend building through the
  upcoming week.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents exists at all local beaches
  today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today-Tonight... Weak high pressure is modeled aloft (250mb) while a
broad surface ridge axis loosely extends from the western Atlantic
and over south Florida. Light southwest flow will continue to favor
the west coast sea breeze with a sea breeze collision over the
eastern half of the peninsula late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Modeled moisture remains high with PWATs near to above
2.0". With little change to the synoptic pattern, a generally
persistent forecast is expected. Mostly dry to start the day with
isolated showers and storms developing along the east coast sea
breeze by late morning and into the early afternoon. Widely
scattered showers and storms should approach from the west by the
afternoon with peak coverage (50-70%) of showers and storms
forecast between 4pm-8pm as a sea breeze collision occurs near or
west of I-95 and east of Orlando. Light showers and storms may
persist through the evening with dry conditions then forecast
overnight. High surface instability (~4,000 J/kg), modest DCAPE
(~700-800 J/kg), and slightly cooler temperatures aloft compared
to yesterday (~ -7C to -8C @ 500mb) may allow for isolated strong
storms along the sea breeze collision late in the day. Strong
storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty
winds 45-55 mph. Steering flow may only show a slight increase to
what was seen yesterday, and periods of heavy rainfall remain a
concern in slow moving storms. Outside of storms, seasonably hot
temperatures continue with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak
heat index values ranging 100-105F. Overnight lows remain mild,
mostly in the mid 70s.

Monday-Saturday... A mid to upper level trough across the midwest
U.S. digs south and east into Monday. Global models then diverge in
how this feature may evolve over the next several days. The GFS
slowly pulls the feature north and eastward, moving offshore the
Atlantic coast mid week. The European model stalls the feature as a
brief cutoff low mid week, before it weakens and lifts east-
northeast Thursday and Friday. In either solution, models suggest
high pressure will work to maintain control of the local weather
pattern. South to southwest flow is forecast to persist through
the period, keeping the focus of diurnally driven convection
across the eastern side of the Florida peninsula. Deep moisture
looks to hold through at least Tuesday before drier air advects
through the mid levels through the remainder of the week.
Scattered to locally numerous rain chances continue Monday and
Tuesday before daily rain chances begin to noticeably taper off
Wednesday onward. Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s
early in the week follow a warming trend with highs forecast in
the mid to upper 90s across the interior from Wednesday onward.
Will have to monitor heat index values nearing Heat Advisory
criteria across portions of the area mid to late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions outside of
showers and storms. Light southwest flow continues each day,
shifting south to southeast near the coast as the sea breeze
develops. Southerly winds increase to 10-15 kts each evening and
early overnight. Seas of 1-2 ft occasionally build to 3 ft far
offshore early this week, and by Wednesday night, seas more widely
build to range 2-3 ft. Scattered to locally numerous offshore moving
showers and storms are forecast each evening through Tuesday with
drier air noticeably reducing rain chances from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Summertime sea breeze pattern will produce high coverage of slow
moving showers and storms once again today. A dominant west coast
sea breeze will lead to a collision over the eastern half of the
peninsula. VCTS begins across the interior first (18-19Z), then
spreads eastward through 20Z. Have included TEMPOs/PROB30 for all
TAF sites; however, the greatest chances look to be generally over
the interior south of MCO. Activity is forecast to peak from
21-23Z, but showers may linger from MLB southward through around
2-3Z. Elsewhere, convective activity diminishes near 0Z. Winds 10
kts or less through the period, veering S/SE this afternoon. Light
and variable winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  76  92  76 /  60  30  60  20
MCO  92  76  93  76 /  60  30  60  30
MLB  90  77  91  77 /  70  40  60  20
VRB  91  75  91  75 /  70  50  60  20
LEE  92  77  93  77 /  50  20  60  10
SFB  93  77  94  77 /  60  20  70  30
ORL  92  77  93  77 /  60  30  70  20
FPR  90  75  91  75 /  70  50  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Wishard

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion