744 FXUS62 KMLB 171949 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 349 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 - Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening over the interior of East Central Florida. Fire sensitive conditions continue late this week and this weekend - No rain is forecast through the weekend. Next week, there is at least a low chance of a few showers - A slow warming trend is forecast through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Currently-Friday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows clear skies. Broad high pressure (1024mb) is centered over the northeastern US and extends over the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s over coastal locations and in the upper 70s to mid 80s inland to the west of I-95. Dew points are generally in the mid 50s to low 60s over coastal locations and in the mid 40s to upper 50s over the interior west of I-95. Winds are from the east to the east of the Orlando metro at around 8-12mph and from south-southwest at around 5-8mph. Very low humidity and east- northeast winds around 10-15mph this afternoon and evening will result in fire sensitive to near critical conditions, mainly over the interior of east central Florida into this evening as winds increase along the east coast sea breeze. Dry weather is expected through the overnight and on Friday as high pressure (~1030mb) gradually builds east over the western Atlantic into Friday with the mid/upper level ridge axis expected to build over the Gulf of America and the southeastern US. Winds are expected to increase into the afternoon from the east at 12-18mph with gusts to 20-28mph with onshore flow in place. Low temperatures in the 60s are expected along the coast with the mid 50s to low 60s forecast over the interior of east central Florida to the west of I-95. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected along the coast on Friday with the 80s forecast over the interior west of I-95. The Weekend... High pressure (~1028mb) is expected to build over the western Atlantic. Dry weather is forecast to continue with the associated mid/upper level ridge axis over the eastern Gulf of America and the southeastern US coupled with PWATs in the 0.60-0.90" range. Winds are expected to increase into the afternoon and evening from the east at 12-20mph with gusts to 20-28mph with onshore flow in place on Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected over coastal locations with the low to upper 80s (near 90 degrees over the western interior of east central Florida on Sunday). Low temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees are forecast over coastal locations with the upper 50s to mid 60s forecast over the interior west of I-95. Monday-Wednesday... Moisture is expected to slowly increase early to mid week next week as the mid/upper level ridge axis shifts east over the western Atlantic. The mid/upper level ridge is then expected to weaken and shift south into Tuesday as a major shortwave trough deepens over the northeastern CONUS. Global models are in good agreement that PWATs will rise into the 0.90-1.20" range Tuesday and Wednesday with onshore flow in place. Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast into the afternoon Tuesday over coastal locations and Wednesday afternoon over all of east central Florida. East winds are expected to increase to around 8-15mph each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s are forecast with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s forecast over the western interior of east central Florida on Monday. Highs are expected to warm into the low to upper 80s near the coast and the upper 80s to low 90s west of I-95 Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Currently-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to become poor into Friday as high pressure (~1030mb) builds over the western Atlantic. East winds at 10-15kts are expected to increase into Friday at 15-20kts. 2-4ft seas are forecast with up to 5ft over the Gulf Stream. Saturday-Monday... Poor boating conditions are expected to improve Sunday and into Monday as a mid/upper level ridge shifts east- southeast over the western Atlantic. East winds at 15-20kts are forecast to decrease and veer southeast into Saturday afternoon at 10-15kts. 3-5ft seas are forecast to decrease to 2-4ft into Sunday evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Onshore winds become a bit gusty this evening, then light and variable overnight. Some VIS reductions due to settled smoke near wildfires and prescribed burns will be possible where winds become light in the overnight and early morning. Rinse and repeat for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 66 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 61 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 63 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 63 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Warm and dry conditions will continue to promote fire sensitivities late this week. Min RHs are expected to fall below critical values across the interior this afternoon between 20-35%. East to northeast winds around 5-10 mph are expected this afternoon and are forecast to locally increase to 15 mph along the sea breeze boundary this afternoon. Wind speeds will be monitored into this early evening and if confidence increases in wind speeds to 15mph, a Red Flag Warning will likely be issued mainly over inland Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. Fire sensitive conditions are expected over Brevard, inland, St. Lucie, and inland Martin counties with RH values in the low 30s to mid 40s and east-northeast winds at 10-15mph. High pressure strengthens over the Atlantic Friday which will increase onshore winds to 15-20 mph through the weekend. However, min RH values increase to 35-50% Friday and into the weekend. Minimum RH values between 35-40% are forecast over the interior into early next week. No precip is forecast through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fehling AVIATION...Haley
National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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