Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

753
FXUS62 KMLB 061141
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
641 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

-  Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern
   Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and
   do not walk or wade through floodwater!

-  Isolated showers today over the Treasure coast counties late
   this morning into the afternoon with additional showers across
   the north late in the day. High temperatures will remain very
   warm today reaching the mid 80s. A cool front will push
   through Saturday and bring somewhat cooler temperatures.

-  Excessive rainfall over the upper St Johns River basin earlier
   this week is sending a considerable volume of water north
   through the basin. A prolonged river flood event is ongoing
   along the Saint Johns River with conditions likely worsening
   before improvement occurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Today...A stationary front across the FL panhandle will begin to
push SE today. Ahead of the front moisture increases slightly with
HRRR and RRFS models showing isolated showers developing first
across the Treasure coast counties late this morning into the
afternoon. Then additional showers develop across northern
sections later in the day. Brief downpours will be possible in a
few areas but accumulations will be less than 0.25". Warm again
with above normal temperatures reaching the mid 80s with light
winds, turning onshore up to 10 mph behind the sea breeze.

Non-tropical low pressure east of the Bahamas is sending
additional swells toward the FL east coast. Buoy 009 is showing an
uptick in swell height and period which will produce a High risk
of rip currents at all central FL Atlc beaches today. This High
risk will extend into the weekend and probably early next week.

Sat-Thu...The cool front is forecast to cross central Florida
Saturday. Limited moisture along the boundary itself means it will
likely be a dry frontal passage. A wind shift out of the N/NW
will announce its passage. Winds gradually veer N/NE Sun and Mon
as high pressure builds in behind this boundary. GFS and ECMWF are
in better agreement showing a weaker mid-level S/W trough moving
across the deep South, but timing differences remain on when it
crosses Florida into next week. The GFS is the faster of the two,
increasing rainfall across the area Wednesday with the ECMWF
holding off better rainfall potential until Wednesday night/
Thursday. Rain chances for the time being remain out of the
forecast Sunday with only low rain chances (10-20%) for much of
the region Mon-Wed with scattered (30%) showers Thu. Given the
weakening upper support, severe weather looks unlikely with this
mid week system. Temperatures trend cooler this weekend behind the
front though Sat still looks warm in the low to mid 80s. Near
normal highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s Sun-Wed; a little cooler
Thu with more clouds and showers. Min temps forecast in the upper
50s NW of I-4 next week with 60s elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Light and variable winds this morning in vicinity of the Atlc
ridge axis nosing SW across the area. A weak front will push SE
across north FL today and across central FL and adjacent waters
Saturday. Winds will switch to the N/NW and increase to 10-15
knots behind the front Sat then veer to the NNE on Sunday and Mon
as high pressure builds in behind the boundary, with speeds
remaining around 10-15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet today primarily due to
swell then the combination of wind wave and swell will produce
poor boating conditions, especially offshore as seas are forecast
to build to 4-6 feet this weekend into early next week. While it
should remain mostly dry over the next several days, isolated
showers are forecast today and tonight ahead of the cool front.
Mainly dry this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions with light/variable to calm winds early in
the period. Will monitor for VSBY (MVFR/IFR) reductions at the
interior terminals and DAB/TIX early this morning due to patchy fog.
Conditions improve after 14Z, with light winds prevailing throughout
the day, but gradually transitioning to onshore along the coast in
the afternoon. ISOLD showers possible this morning and early aftn
across Treasure Coast terminals. Later this afternoon and early
evening ISOLD shower chances across interior TAF sites and towards
KDAB/KTIX/KMLB. Winds becoming/remaining light during the evening &
overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

River flood warnings are in effect for all St Johns River forecast
points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are
forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days through
Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa
(COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage later today or
tonight with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage mid next
week. River forecasts are issued twice per day by the NWS
Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS
Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  66  79  63 /  20  20   0   0
MCO  86  69  82  62 /  20  20   0   0
MLB  83  68  81  66 /  10  20   0   0
VRB  84  68  83  67 /  20  10   0   0
LEE  86  68  82  60 /  20  10   0   0
SFB  87  68  83  61 /  20  20   0   0
ORL  86  69  82  61 /  20  20   0   0
FPR  84  68  83  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion