Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

174
FXUS62 KMLB 090636
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm
  hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise,
  the potential exists for frequent lightning strikes and strong
  wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is High risk for dangerous rip currents today along the
  Volusia and north Brevard coasts, while a Moderate risk of rip
  currents continues across south Brevard and the Treasure Coast.
  Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current-Thursday...With a frontal boundary in proximity, we will
see occasional onshore moving showers/ISOLD storms this morning.
The boundary will begin to lift back northward today as weak Atlc
high pressure ridging pushes back toward the east central FL coast
on Thu. The weak pressure pattern will permit early development
and advancement well inland of the ECSB this afternoon and perhaps
not quite as far into the interior for Thu. Nonetheless, an
eventual late day/evening sea breeze collision will occur across
the interior both days. PWATs remain very high, well in excess of
2". Storm steering will be light and toward the NE/N today
shifting more to light SW on Thu. Overall storm motion will be
weak and erratic at times with stronger boundary collisions. PoPs
today 40-60% with highest values favoring the interior this
afternoon and 50-70% areawide on Thu. Aloft, weak troughing
continues across the central peninsula enhancing convection.
Primary storm impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds locally 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 1-3"
in a relatively short period (esp interior for today) promoting
minor/nuisance flooding in repeated rounds or across locations
that may have recently seen abundant rainfall.

Max temps near climo in the U80s/L90s. Humid overnight with mins in
the 70s. Peak heat indices in the U90s to L-M100s ahead of daily
storms.

Fri-Tue...Aloft weak troughing will aid diurnal convection into Sat,
then mid-level high pressure begins to build/strengthen across the
Deep South into early next week. At the surface, initial high
pressure ridging near the central FL peninsula will move slowly
northward into this weekend, though we still retain a fairly weak
pressure gradient across the coverage warning area. A deeper
onshore flow pattern will develop late Sun into early next week.
Deep moisture will continue to surge across the area as we return
to a more typical sea breeze and diurnal convection pattern.
Fairly high PoP numbers (60-80%) for Fri-Sun, then perhaps a
slight drop-off into Mon/Tue (40-60%). Primary storm impacts
continue to revolve around locally heavy rainfall. Near seasonal
temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the 70s and conditions
remaining humid. Peak heat indices continue in the U90s to M100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Thru Sunday...A weak frontal boundary across the area will lift back
north with the Atlc ridge axis nosing back into the central FL
peninsula thru lake work-week, then northward into the weekend. A
fairly weak pressure gradient will continue in place with winds
generally AOB 15 kts. Winds will still transition onshore 10-12 kts
along the coast as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland each
day. Moisture remains high thru the period and expect SCT showers
and lightning storms to remain in the forecast becoming
occasionally NMRS in coverage.

Occasional diurnal offshore-moving storms affecting the intracoastal
and near shore waters will also continue. A few strong storms are
possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds in
excess of 40 kts, and heavy downpours. Overnight activity (outside
of early this morning again) mostly confined to the Gulf Stream,
where a few strong storms will remain possible with frequent
lightning/gusty winds. Seas locally higher invof storms. Seas 2-4 ft
today may build to 5 ft well offshore (Volusia coast) gradually
subsiding late tonight into the weekend slowly back toward 2-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Onshore-moving showers will continue through this morning, with
VCSH at all terminals except LEE. ESE winds pick up to around 10
knots, with VCTS chances increasing along the coast after 15Z and
across the interior by 19Z. Too early for definitive enough timing
of TEMPOs/PROB30s, but will likely need them at least across the
interior for some VIS and CIG impacts. Activity diminishes around
22Z along the coast and 00Z elsewhere, with light ESE winds
persisting through the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  90  75 /  40  10  50  20
MCO  91  76  92  76 /  60  10  60  20
MLB  90  78  91  76 /  40  10  60  20
VRB  89  76  89  75 /  40  20  60  20
LEE  91  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  91  76  92  76 /  60  10  70  20
ORL  91  76  91  76 /  60  10  60  20
FPR  89  76  89  75 /  40  20  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion