Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

866
FXUS62 KMLB 201939
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Dry conditions this weekend and into the start of next week.

- A High risk of rip currents will likely persist this weekend.
  Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

- Low humidity values will create fire-sensitive conditions this
  weekend.

- A gradual warming trend is forecast through the period, with
  temperatures reaching above normal values this weekend and
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Thru Tonight...Sharp mid level trough will continue to push east
away from the area with increased subsidence across the area.
Breezy/gusty north to northeast winds will decrease with sunset,
diminishing to 5-10 mph or less overnight. With mostly clear skies
and light winds, favorable radiational cooling conditions will
develop. Overnight lows will reach the low to mid 50s most areas
with upper 40s across north Lake and intr Volusia. HRRR continues
to show patchy fog developing along and north of the I-4 corridor
and LAV guidance is now starting to pick up on reduced vsbys at
LEE and DAB.

Sat-Mon...High pressure ridge axis settles southward and will be
centered over central FL Saturday, then across south FL Sun and
Mon. Light winds and very dry (low dewpoint) air will produce a
Chamber of Commerce day Sat. A little more of an offshore (west)
flow will develop Sun and Mon resulting in a delayed sea breeze
development and warmer temps into the mid 80s. Overnight lows
will still drop to near to slightly below normal values, mostly in
the 50s, due to the dry airmass in place.

While the dry and warmer than normal conditions will attract more
beachgoers, a lingering swell will likely maintain a High Risk of
rip currents along the east central Florida coast through the
weekend. Entering the surf will still be strongly discouraged.

Tue-Fri (modified)...WPC shows a front is forecast to push
southward into the area Tuesday, gradually slowing and weakening
as it drifts down the FL peninsula and washes out Thu. Current
forecast shows increasing rain and thunderstorm chances through
midweek. Current NBM/WPC PoPs are modest around 20-30 percent,
with just a slight chance of storms. However, these may trend
higher once there is more confidence in the model guidance. Not
much if any cooling is forecast behind this front as onshore flow
quickly develops behind the boundary. This will keep temperatures
above normal through the period, with highs still forecast in the
low to mid 80s and lows creeping up into the low-mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Tonight-Sat...Improving boating conditions as high pressure ridge
axis settles over the area. Wind speeds will decrease to 5-10 knots
tonight across northern waters then back out of the N/NW tomorrow
all areas. A 10 KT NE-E sea breeze will develop near the coast in
the afternoon. Seas will be slower to subside but should finally
fall below 7 ft in the Gulf stream Sat morning. No changes to the
Small Craft Advisories which are set to expire at 10AM for the
Gulf Stream and will be replaced by Caution headline.

Sun-Wed...Ridge axis settles across south FL Sun-Mon with offshore
winds in the morning become S/SE each afternoon and evening as sea
breeze develops, with wind speeds generally less than 15 knots. Seas
continue to subside 3-5 feet Sunday and 2-4 feet Monday. A cold
front is forecast to reach the local Atlc waters Tue resulting in
increased onshore winds and building seas. So deteriorating
boating conds are forecast at least across the northern
waters during Tue, spreading across all the waters by Wed. There
will also be an increase in showers and isolated storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Diminishing shower chances along the Treasure Coast and adjacent
coastal waters into this afternoon. N/NNE morning winds
increasing to 10-15 kts inland and 15-20 kts along the coast;
frequent higher gusts during the afternoon, with northerly wind
speeds diminishing this evening to light. Mainly VFR conditions
thru this evening, then an increasing patchy fog potential
overnight into early Sat morning as low-level winds finally
decrease and skies become MClear. Greatest fog risk lies across
the I-4 corridor. Weaker pressure gradient in place on Sat with
generally a light "offshore" wind component becoming onshore in
the afternoon along the coast with sea breeze formation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

High pressure ridge slips southward and will be overhead Saturday
allowing winds and especially wind gusts to decrease/subside. The
ridge will become stationary across south Florida Sunday with an
offshore wind component, turning onshore near the coast Sunday
afternoon behind the sea breeze. While wind speeds will be 10 mph or
less on Saturday, a very dry airmass will allow afternoon Min RH
values to fall to critical values, between 25 to 35 percent for much
of the area. A little stronger westerly transport wind across
northern sections Sunday combined with continued critical min RH
values will produce a more fire sensitive day. Dispersion values
will range from Generally Good to Very Good Saturday. On Sunday,
only Fair dispersion is forecast across far southern sections
(Martin county) but improving to Excellent to the north across
portions of Lake, Volusia and Seminole counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  53  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  55  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  55  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  50  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  50  82  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  53  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  54  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion