Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

576
FXUS62 KMLB 181136
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
736 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue this week and into the weekend
  with a Heat Advisory in Effect today, as well as a Major to
  Extreme HeatRisk for all of East Central Florida through Friday.
  Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day.

- A Marginal Risk for Severe Storms exists on Friday. A Marginal
  Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists each day through Saturday.

- Increasing storm coverage is expected this afternoon through
  late week as deeper moisture moves across central Florida from
  the north. Storms will move from inland areas toward the
  Atlantic coast each afternoon with the potential for a few
  strong storms today and a few severe storms on Friday.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches into late week. Always swim
  near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather over east
central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations
indicate generally mostly clear to party cloudy skies. Current
temperatures are in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with dew points
in the low to upper 70s.

Scattered to numerous generally east-southeast moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening as
the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west
coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The
greatest chance (40-70%) showers and lightning storms is from
Brevard/Osceola counties northwards (20-40% to the south) where the
greatest surface convergence is expected. Rain chances gradually
diminish towards sunset as showers and storms push offshore. There
is the potential for a few strong storms this afternoon with model
guidance showing MLCAPE between 2,000-3,200J/kg, 0-6km shear as high
as 20-40kts, and PWATs up to 1.7-2.4". A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall exists today with the potential (5-14%) for minor flooding
of roadways and low-lying areas. The main hazards with storms this
afternoon will be frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts up to
40-55mph, and heavy rainfall (2-4" with a 1-10 chance in excess of
4" up to 5"). Afternoon highs in the mid 90s are forecast this
afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM-7PM today for heat
index values up to 108F-110F degrees. Remember to stay hydrated,
wear light colored clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to
7pm, and take frequent breaks from the heat. Above normal to near
record low temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees are
forecast.

Friday-Sunday...  A shortwave trough is forecast to track east-
southeast over the southeastern US and northern Florida on Friday.
Guidance shows upper-level perturbations pivoting ahead of and
along the base of the trough from Brevard county northwards Friday
afternoon and evening which will provide additional lift for
strong to severe storms to develop. Scattered to numerous
generally east-southeast moving showers (30-70%) and storms are
forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as
surface coverage increases between the sea breezes and outflow
from previous storms. Hi-res guidance indicates MLCAPE between
2,000-4,000 J/kg, 0-6km shear between 20- 50kts, 0-3km helicity up
to 200-450 m^2/S^2, SHIP up to 1.0, SCP between 1-2, EHI as high
as 1-3, and absolutely unstable mid-level lapse rates, coupled
with PWATs between 1.7"-2.4" over east central Florida Friday
afternoon and evening. Thus, a Marginal Risk for severe storms
exists on Friday from northern Indian River county northwards. The
time period for severe storms is from 2PM-9PM on Friday.
Additionally, Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists Friday
from Brevard county southward with the potential (5-14%) for minor
flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. The main hazards with
storms Friday afternoon will be frequent to excessive lightning,
wind gusts up to 60 mph (5-14%), hail up to 1", and heavy
rainfall (2-3" with a 1-10 chance in excess of 3" up to 4-6").

Rain chances remain high Saturday (50-80%) and Sunday (40-60%) as a
"cool" front sags south just to the north or over far northern east
central Florida. Scattered to numerous generally east-southeast
showers and lightning storms are forecast into each afternoon and
evening. A Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall exists on Saturday
for all of east central Florida with the potential(5-14%) for minor
flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. There is the potential for
a few strong storms each day which will be capable of frequent to
excessive lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall
(2-3" with a 2-5% chance in excess of 3" up to 4-6"). Afternoon
highs in the mid 90s are forecast Friday with a Major HeatRisk, as
well as small portions of Brevard, Osceola, and St. Lucie counties
in an Extreme HeatRisk. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are
forecast with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. A Major and Extreme Heat
Risk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Low
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are forecast.

Monday-Wednesday... Drier conditions are forecast into next week as
high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf of America. Isolated to
scattered showers (20-30/40%) and lightning storms are forecast into
each afternoon as a weak east coast sea breeze moves inland and
converges with weak west-southwest flow. Above normal (2-5F+)
temperatures are expected to continue into next week with a Major
HeatRisk Monday and a Major to Extreme HeatRisk Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Today-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to
become choppy into this evening with the western Atlantic ridge
extended over southern Florida. Scattered to numerous generally
offshore moving showers and lightning storms with the greatest
potential from Brevard county northwards (some of which will have
the potential to become strong today and severe on Friday) are
forecast today. Southwest winds are forecast to back south-
southeast into this afternoon at 10-15kts (up to 20kts over the
offshore Volusia to Brevard county offshore waters this evening)
with gusts to 20kts. Generally, south-southwest winds at 10-15kts
with gusts to 20kts are forecast to back southeast into the
afternoon from Brevard county southwards on Friday. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution over the Volusia to Brevard county
offshore (20-60nm) waters this evening. Seas of 1-2ft with up to
3ft offshore are expected.

Saturday-Monday... Favorable boating conditions are expected.
Isolated to scattered generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast into Saturday and Sunday afternoons/
evenings. The potential for a few strong storms exists. Southwest
winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to generally
back south on Saturday before veering west and then east-
southeast into Sunday as a "cool" front sags across the far
northern waters or just to the north of the waters. Seas to 1-2ft
are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR at ECFL terminals outside of convection. SRLY flow increasing
to around 10 kts by late morning will allow the east coast sea
breeze to develop after 16z and gradually push inland, shifting
winds along the coast SSE-SE at 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20
kts from KTIX-KSUA, and remaining around 10 kts to the north. A
few SHRA/TSRA may develop on the east coast sea breeze, but pretty
good agreement from hi-res models most activity will initially
come from the west coast sea breeze (ISO-SCT) after 19Z, with
high (50-70%) chances for SCT/NUM TSRA INVOF most ECFL terminals
from KMLB-KMCO/KISM north after 21Z along the sea breeze
collision. SWRLY steering flow will push TSRA/SHRA back towards
the coast through the evening.

Added TEMPOs for TS impacts to KMCO and other inland terminals
(except LEE), and along the coast from KDAB-KMLB. Timing trends
on the earlier side of guidance. Kept KLEE and KVRB-KSUA at VC
due to lower chances. TSRA/SHRA could linger well past 00Z,
especially at KTIX-KMLB. Quiet overnight once convection
dissipates or moves offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  77  93  76 /  70  30  60  10
MCO  96  78  95  77 /  50  40  50  10
MLB  93  79  94  78 /  60  50  70  40
VRB  94  79  95  77 /  30  30  60  40
LEE  95  79  93  78 /  40  20  30  10
SFB  97  78  95  77 /  70  40  60  10
ORL  96  79  94  78 /  50  40  50  10
FPR  94  78  94  76 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion