Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

785
FXUS62 KMLB 121122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
722 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Higher coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms will
  persist into next week. Main threats will be lightning strikes,
  gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow
  moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a
  Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk over Central Florida,
  residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more
  info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please swim near a lifeguard.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today-Tonight...A weak surface ridge axis stretches across south
Florida today from the western Atlantic. This will lead to the
beginning of a pattern change, with light offshore flow developing
over the area. However, will still see a SE sea breeze develop at
the coast in the afternoon, which drifts towards Orlando into the
evening, increasing winds to around 10 mph. The east coast breeze
is forecast to collide with the west coast breeze over the
interior after around 5 PM, spurring PoPs 60-70%. Higher PoPs
(40-70%) are forecast area- wide, though, as convection begins
along the sea breeze in the morning near the coast, before moving
inland. Warm 500 mb temperatures near -6 C are not supportive of
stronger storms. But, steep low level lapse rates and precip
loaded downdrafts could lead to a few stronger wind gusts 40-50
mph. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with
slow storm motions causing cells to linger over an area.

Convection will linger along the sea breeze collision into the
evening hours, with slow drift back towards the coast possible,
though steering flow is light. Drier conditions are expected by
around midnight, which then continue into Saturday morning. Hot
temperatures in the lower to mid-90s, combined with humid
conditions, will produce heat indices near 100 this afternoon. A
Moderate HeatRisk will be present across much of the forecast
area. Residents and visitors should use caution during the heat of
the day and know the signs of heat stress and heat illness.
Overnight lows in the 70s will provide little relief.

Saturday-Friday...Low and mid-level high pressure linger over the
Florida peninsula through mid-week next week, fending off any
approaching troughs. With the ridge axis remaining south of the
warning area, offshore flow will continue, strengthening next week
as the pressure gradient tightens.

This flow regime, combined with PWATs near 2", will support
higher, summertime PoPs through the period over the local area.
PoPs up to 60-70% each afternoon will be highest along the sea
breeze collision, with the morning hours remaining mostly dry. As
southwesterly flow strengthens, the east coast sea breeze will
still develop, but become increasingly opposed and pinned to the
coastal counties. Slow moving storms and outflow driven
propagation will allow showers and storms to linger into the
evening hours each day, drifting offshore at times. A few strong
storms will remain possible and multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
due to thunderstorms could increase flooding concerns, should it
occur over the same areas multiple days in a row.

Southwesterly flow will also lead to near to slightly above normal
high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s. Hot and humid
conditions will linger over the area, leading to increasing heat
concerns. Moderate to Major HeatRisk will expand through the area,
especially north of Brevard County, including the Orlando Metro.
Overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for many areas
will continue muggy conditions through the early morning hours.
For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast through the
period, as high pressure lingers over the local waters.
Increasingly offshore flow will back S/SE in the afternoons at the
coast as the sea breeze develops. Winds remain around 15 kts or
less, though could see 15-20 kts develop well offshore Tuesday, as
the pressure gradient tightens. Seas 1-3 ft. Higher coverage of
showers and storms is forecast near the coast this weekend and
into next week. Convection will increasingly drift offshore in the
late afternoons and evenings, as SW flow strengthens. Boaters
should use caution later in the day and watch the western sky for
approaching storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Light and variable winds persist until the development of the
east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Winds become more
southeasterly after 17Z along the coast and after 20Z across the
interior as the sea breeze moves inland. Increasing coverage of
VCSH and VCTS is forecast along the sea breeze and later, along
the sea breeze collision. Continued to leave out TEMPOs for now
with the highest coverage potentially favored south of the
interior terminals. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed.
Winds are forecast to become light and variable once again beyond
00Z, with showers and storms diminishing between 00-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
MCO  92  75  93  76 /  70  40  50  40
MLB  89  76  91  77 /  60  20  40  20
VRB  90  74  91  75 /  50  20  40  20
LEE  92  76  94  77 /  40  30  40  30
SFB  93  76  95  76 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  92  76  94  77 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  89  74  90  74 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion