Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

379
FXUS62 KMLB 221759
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Dry conditions persist through Monday then rain chances increase
  Tuesday/Wednesday as a weak front settles slowly southward across
  the Florida peninsula.

- At least a Moderate risk of rip currents will exist at area
  beaches Monday.

- Afternoon highs will remain above normal through the forecast
  period.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will continue Monday due to
  critically low RH values, above normal temperatures and some wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Thru Monday...High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the area
and keep warm and dry conditions in place during the day while
seasonably cool at night. Maintained patchy fog across northern
sections late tonight/early Mon but HRRR as well as NBM Probs are
not bullish. Coolest temps tonight will again be found over southern
sections closer to the ridge axis in the lower 50s with mid 50s
elsewhere. A little warmer Mon esp along the coast where a little
stronger offshore flow should delay onset of the sea breeze. Max
temps generally in the mid 80s, except lower 80s along the immediate
coast.

Tue-Wed...A weak front is forecast to reach central FL Tue then
stall/wash out on Wed across south central FL. Increasing moisture
will accompany this boundary, with PW values rising to 1.4-1.5
inches, leading to isolated to scattered shower development across
east central FL. On Tue, rain chances will largely be limited to
areas north of Okeechobee/Treasure Coast (up to 20-50%), and then
will range from 20-40% across all of east central Florida Wednesday.
There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms, mainly during each
afternoon/evening as model guidance still shows CAPE values
increasing to around 500-1000 J/kg each day. Overall shear profiles
look weak, but cold temps aloft (-12 to -14C at 500mb) may allow for
a small hail threat should any isolated stronger storms develop.
Rainfall amounts are forecast to remain rather meager, and therefore
not providing much relief from the ongoing drought. Rainfall totals
below a half inch are forecast but locally higher totals will be
possible, especially from any storms that develop.

A slight drop in max temps should occur with more clouds and
scattered showers as well as the development of onshore flow behind
the front. But there will be no significant cooling behind this
front with temps overall remaining above normal.

Thu-Sun (modified)...As front fades, ridge axis of high pressure
across the Atlantic builds back south across the area into late
week. This will lead to mostly dry and continued warmer than normal
conditions, with highs rising even further to the mid to upper 80s
across the interior on Friday. Another front looks to push southward
into the area this weekend with model guidance showing scattered
showers and also breezy/windy conditions developing out of the NE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Thru Mon...High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the local
Atlc waters which will produce an offshore flow, except turning
onshore near the coast in a 10-15 knot sea breeze both this
afternoon and again Mon aftn. Winds will return to an offshore
(West) component overnight once the sea breeze circulation
diminishes. The ENE swell will continue to decrease so the combined
seas (wind wave and swell) of 3-4 FT this afternoon will subside to
2-3 FT Monday.

Tue-Fri...Boating conditions deteriorate Tue-Wed as a front pushes
southward into the local Atlc waters Tuesday. W/NW winds around 10-
15 knots in the morning becoming onshore (NE-E) into the afternoon
and increasing up to 15-25 knots over the Volusia waters beginning
late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Seas will build across
all the waters from a long E/NE fetch from high pressure north of
the front, producing poor to hazardous boating conditions across
much of the waters through Tuesday night into Wednesday.  wave
heights increase up to 6-10 feet. As onshore winds weaken to 10-15
knots Wednesday and to around 10 knots Thursday-Friday, seas will
also gradually subside, falling to 4-6 FT Wednesday night, 3-5 FT
Thursday and around 3 FT Fri.

Shower and storm chances increase with the arrival of the front,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast from Tuesday
afternoon (mainly north of Sebastian Inlet) and continuing from
Tuesday night through Wednesday/Wednesday evening (across much of
the coastal waters).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Dry weather persists at the terminals through the forecast period
along with mainly VFR conditions. Westerly winds around 10 knots
continue at the interior terminals and DAB, with winds shifting to
out of the east along the coast as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Winds become light and variable to calm
overnight, with guidance hinting at a low to medium chance (30-60%)
of patchy fog development near the interior terminals and DAB. Have
switched from prevailing MVFR conditions after 08Z to a TEMPO from
08-12Z tonight given the uncertainty relative to fog development.
Any fog that does manage to develop will diminish after sunrise,
with west-northwest winds around 10 knots anticipated at all
terminals after 13Z tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

High pressure ridge axis across south Florida will maintain a warm
and very dry airmass across the area Monday. Offshore (west) winds
around 10 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph will become onshore along
the coast in the afternoon behind a delayed east coast sea breeze.
Min RH values will fall below critical values, between 25 and 35
percent for much of the area in the afternoon. The combination of
above normal temperatures, low RH and some wind will produce
sensitive fire weather conditions. Spotty red flag conditions may be
realized. Afternoon smoke dispersion values are forecast to be Very
Good, except generally Good over Martin county.

On Tue, a frontal boundary will push south into central Florida and
bring a northeast to east wind flow along with increased clouds and
rain chances across northern sections in the afternoon. The front
will stall, weaken and dissipate Wednesday nearby while keeping
scattered showers across the area. A few lightning storms will be
possible both afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  56  85  59  78 /   0   0   0  50
MCO  56  85  60  86 /   0   0   0  40
MLB  54  83  58  81 /   0   0   0  30
VRB  52  83  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  55  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  40
SFB  55  85  60  84 /   0   0   0  40
ORL  56  85  61  84 /   0   0   0  40
FPR  51  83  54  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion