Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

716
FXUS62 KMLB 252321
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Lightning storm chances increase to 50-70% near and north of I-4
  later this afternoon/evening, including Greater Orlando, with
  lesser coverage toward Lake Okeechobee. Rain and storm chances
  will then increase across nearly all of east-central Florida for
  the remainder of the work week.

- Storms that form will be capable of producing locally strong
  wind gusts over 45 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential
  rainfall. Minor flooding may result, especially in urban areas.

- Seasonable heat and humidity prevail for the next week. Highs in
  the low to mid 90s will feel more like the low 100s from late
  morning through the afternoon. Take frequent breaks in the shade
  or A/C and stay hydrated.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Current-Tonight...Another warm & humid day with max temps in the L-
M90s this afternoon and peak heat indices above 100F, still
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are
strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat
illness. Weak mid-level troughing continues across north FL and will
enhance diurnal shower/lightning storms this afternoon and evening.
Highest chances (50-70%) from Osceola-Brevard County northward where
moisture is deepest, and generally 20-40% PoPs southward. The ECSB
will develop and push inland this afternoon with strongest boundary
collisions across the interior to include Volusia County. Storm
motion is weak/erratic and some storms may push back to the
Volusia/Brevard coast this evening. Primary storm impacts remain
local strong wind gusts (45-55 mph) in a few storms, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours leading to quick 1-3"
rainfall totals. Localized amounts of 4-5" may be possible and the
Weather Prediction Center has outlined central Brevard - central
Osceola County northward for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
this afternoon/evening. Activity will wind down through mid/late
evening and cloud-cover will thin thru the overnight. Min
temperatures fall into the M70s with conditions humid.

Wed-Wed Night...Surface ridge axis will advance northward across
central FL. Light morning southerly winds will "back" onshore in the
afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. ISOLD-SCT
showers storms with the ECSB near the coast - earlier development
and quicker movement inland south; the WCSB will promote similar
initial coverage across our western coverage warning area in the
afternoon. A late day/evening sea breeze collision likely from
near Lake George thru Seminole County, Greater Orlando Metro and
south across the Kissimmee River. PoPs 60-70% nearly areawide.

High temps continue in the L-M90s with peak heat indices north of
100F. Overnight lows consistent in the M70s with conditions muggy.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified.

Thu-Fri...Sea-breeze-driven showers and storms are likely each day
as moisture values (PWATs 2"+) return to normal to slightly above. A
few storms will likely develop near the coast in the early afternoon
before a collision over the interior sparks the greatest coverage
and intensity late in the afternoon or by early evening. Weak
offshore flow in the mid-levels may drive some lingering storms back
toward the east coast in the evening. Each day, rain and storm
chances range from 50-70%. Our general summertime thunderstorm
hazards are expected, with frequent lightning, wind gusts from 40 to
45 mph, and localized flooding the main threats.

Seasonably hot temperatures and humidity levels will continue.

Weekend-Early Next Week...Rather typical late summer weather is
expected to persist as August wraps up across east central Florida.
Light onshore flow tries to become established this weekend as high
pressure becomes situated just to our northeast. With no
interruption to the moist airmass overhead, expect scattered to
numerous afternoon and evening storms, with the focus likely
becoming more over the interior with slightly less coverage near the
coast. Hot and muggy each afternoon before storms begin to form.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Current-Tonight...Another warm & humid day with max temps in the L-
M90s this afternoon and peak heat indices above 100F, still
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are
strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat
illness. Weak mid-level troughing continues across north FL and will
enhance diurnal shower/lightning storms this afternoon and evening.
Highest chances (50-70%) from Osceola-Brevard County northward where
moisture is deepest, and generally 20-40% PoPs southward. The ECSB
will develop and push inland this afternoon with strongest boundary
collisions across the interior to include Volusia County. Storm
motion is weak/erratic and some storms may push back to the
Volusia/Brevard coast this evening. Primary storm impacts remain
local strong wind gusts (45-55 mph) in a few storms, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours leading to quick 1-3"
rainfall totals. Localized amounts of 4-5" may be possible and the
Weather Prediction Center has outlined central Brevard - central
Osceola County northward for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
this afternoon/evening. Activity will wind down through mid/late
evening and cloud-cover will thin thru the overnight. Min
temperatures fall into the M70s with conditions humid.

Wed-Wed Night...Surface ridge axis will advance northward across
central FL. Light morning southerly winds will "back" onshore in the
afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. ISOLD-SCT
showers storms with the ECSB near the coast - earlier development
and quicker movement inland south; the WCSB will promote similar
initial coverage across our western coverage warning area in the
afternoon. A late day/evening sea breeze collision likely from
near Lake George thru Seminole County, Greater Orlando Metro and
south across the Kissimmee River. PoPs 60-70% nearly areawide.

High temps continue in the L-M90s with peak heat indices north of
100F. Overnight lows consistent in the M70s with conditions muggy.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified.

Thu-Fri...Sea-breeze-driven showers and storms are likely each day
as moisture values (PWATs 2"+) return to normal to slightly above. A
few storms will likely develop near the coast in the early afternoon
before a collision over the interior sparks the greatest coverage
and intensity late in the afternoon or by early evening. Weak
offshore flow in the mid-levels may drive some lingering storms back
toward the east coast in the evening. Each day, rain and storm
chances range from 50-70%. Our general summertime thunderstorm
hazards are expected, with frequent lightning, wind gusts from 40 to
45 mph, and localized flooding the main threats.

Seasonably hot temperatures and humidity levels will continue.

Weekend-Early Next Week...Rather typical late summer weather is
expected to persist as August wraps up across east central Florida.
Light onshore flow tries to become established this weekend as high
pressure becomes situated just to our northeast. With no
interruption to the moist airmass overhead, expect scattered to
numerous afternoon and evening storms, with the focus likely
becoming more over the interior with slightly less coverage near the
coast. Hot and muggy each afternoon before storms begin to form.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions continue across the local
waters outside of shower/lightning storm activity through this week.
The Atlantic surface high slowly lifts north across the waters this
week. Light offshore winds 5 to 10 kts during the overnight and
morning hours increase to 10 to 15 kts and shift to out of the
southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
develops each day and moves well inland. Seas remain generally
between 1 to 2 ft (occasionally 3 ft - esp this weekend), with
the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to
scattered shower and lightning storm development will be forecast,
with activity affecting the intracoastal/near shore Atlc waters
each afternoon/evening. Additional shower/storm development
overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm
hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes,
wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, heavy downpours, and locally
higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Showers and storms near TIX and MLB will continue to move offshore
through 01Z. Maintain TEMPOs through 01Z at both sites for VIS
and CIG reductions due to TSRA and wind gusts. Elsewhere and
beyond 01Z at TIX and MLB, VFR conditions prevail with light
southerly flow becoming variable at times. Winds pick up out of
the SE along the coast after 15Z as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland, becoming SE at the interior terminals
after 18Z. Shower and storm chances also increase with the
development of the sea breeze, so have added mention of VCTS at
all terminals as the winds become SE. Will likely need
TEMPOs/PROB30s, but too early to include with this package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  70
MCO  75  95  75  95 /  20  70  40  70
MLB  76  91  76  91 /  50  50  10  70
VRB  75  91  75  91 /  50  50  20  70
LEE  75  93  75  93 /  10  60  40  70
SFB  75  94  75  94 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  76  94  76  94 /  20  70  40  70
FPR  75  91  75  91 /  40  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion