Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

525
FXUS62 KMLB 170655
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Breezy onshore winds today will continue poor to hazardous
  boating conditions across the coastal waters and lead to rough
  surf and a high risk for rip currents at area beaches.

- Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast today
  into tonight, with shower and storm chances increasing Friday
  and into the weekend with a passing disturbance aloft.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Pressure gradient remains relatively tight across
the area between high pressure to the north and a weak frontal
boundary to the south. This will continue a breezy onshore flow
today as northeast winds increase from 10-15 mph this morning up to
15-20 mph this afternoon, with gusts around 25-30 mph. Some drier
air builds in, lowering rain chances today. However, the breezy
winds and sufficient low level moisture will still lead to isolated
to scattered showers that push onshore and inland through the day.
PoPs for much of the area will reside around 20-40 percent, with
greatest coverage of showers and potential for a few storms mainly
southeast of the I-4 corridor. Any storms and heavier showers will
have the potential to produce gusty winds up to 35-40 mph as well as
locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches. As a mid/upper level low
approaches from the east and onshore flow continues, isolated to
scattered onshore moving showers and storms will continue into
tonight, with greatest chance for rainfall along the coast.

Drier air may make it feel a little less humid, mainly near to NW of
I-4 where dewpoints are forecast to fall into the upper 60s this
afternoon. Highs will be near to just a tad below normal, in the mid
to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the 70s.

At the beaches, a high risk of life threatening rip currents will
persist today, along with rough surf. Heed the advice of lifeguards,
beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised!

Friday-Sunday...Surface high pressure to the north builds southward,
with pressure gradient weakening. This will allow low level winds to
continue and also decrease through late week and into the weekend.
Strong ridge to the northwest of Florida lingers through the period,
as a mid/upper level low moves in from the east across the state and
slowly progresses westward into the weekend. Moisture will increase
with PW values rising to 1.7" Friday and 1.9-2.0" into the weekend.
Passing low aloft will aid in lift and also lead to cooler temps at
500mb (as low as -8 to -10C Friday into Saturday). This will lead to
increasing shower and storm chances, with scattered to numerous
showers and storms developing each day (rain chances near to above
normal). A few stronger storms will be possible each day due to
lingering dry air aloft, and the cool temps in the mid levels. Main
storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to 40-
50 mph and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3", which may result in minor
flooding issues. Onshore flow will continue low end rain chances
along the coast each night as isolated to scattered showers and
storms across the waters may reach the coast. Temperatures remain
seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...Low aloft shifts west, with a weak sfc trough
near to north of the area. Winds remain relatively weak and mostly
onshore through early to middle portion of next week. Sufficient
moisture remains in place to continue scattered to numerous showers
and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze shifts inland.
Isolated strong storms will continue to be possible each day, with
temperatures remaining close to normal values for this time of
year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Today-Tonight...A fresh onshore breeze will continue poor to
hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters today
through tonight. E/NE winds up to 15-20 knots are forecast to
persist through this afternoon, decreasing to 10-15 knots into
tonight. Small craft advisories for seas up to 7 feet will
continue across the offshore waters through 8am this morning, and
then are scaled back to just the offshore Volusia/Brevard waters
through 11am as 7 foot seas continue to diminish. Elsewhere, small
craft should exercise caution today for seas up to 6 feet.
Exercise caution headlines will then likely continue this evening
across the offshore waters where seas up to 6 feet linger.

Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and isolated storms
will continue to develop across the waters, pushing westward and
onshore. Gusty winds around 30-40 knots will be possible with any
storms or heavier showers, which could pose a hazard to boaters.

Friday-Monday...More favorable boating conditions forecast to
return across the waters Friday and continue through the weekend
and into early next week. Onshore winds will generally prevail,
with speeds less than 15 knots. Seas fall to 3-4 feet Friday and
then 2-3 feet Saturday-Monday. The main hazard to boaters will be
an increase in showers and storms (becoming scattered to
numerous) as moisture increases and a disturbance aloft approaches
and passes across the state and out into the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Breezy/gusty NE to E winds will continue along the coast overnight
with lighter winds 5-10 knots over interior terminals (MCO). SHRA
will continue to push onshore portions of the coast and gradually
diminish as they push inland. Have VCSH at most terminals to
start the 06Z TAFs (except LEE) with TEMPOs at FPR/SUA given
radar trends. VFR conds expected outside of SHRA through Thu when
winds pick up again out of the NE at 12-15 knots gusting to 25
knots. Liberal use of VCSH along the coast Thu and inserted a
PROB30 for VRB-SUA late Thu for MVFR in coastal showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  87  75 /  20  20  30  20
MCO  89  73  89  73 /  20  20  30   0
MLB  88  77  87  76 /  30  30  50  30
VRB  87  75  87  73 /  40  40  50  40
LEE  89  73  89  73 /  10  10  30   0
SFB  87  74  88  73 /  20  20  30  10
ORL  88  74  88  74 /  20  20  30   0
FPR  87  74  87  73 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion