Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

825
FXUS62 KMLB 230700
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous beach and boating conditions are
  forecast across east central Florida through the remainder of
  this week and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents,
  and Gale conditions will be possible this weekend and early next
  week.

- Isolated shower chances along the coast today, with increasing
  rain and storm chances forecast through Monday. Minor flooding
  cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers and the
  potential for training bands of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough will dig southward across the
Florida peninsula today as surface high pressure continues to
strengthen across the eastern US while to the south, a stalled
front remains draped across the northern Caribbean. The result is
a continued tightening pressure gradient across the Florida
peninsula, translating to increasing winds locally through today.
Northeast winds around 10 mph this morning are forecast to
increase to 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible at
times, especially along the coast. These persistent northeasterly
winds may be capable of supporting some isolated onshore-moving
showers along the coast, though chances remain low (20-30%). The
best chances remain focused along the Treasure Coast where PWATs
are greatest (1-1.2"), though it is worth noting that drier air
aloft may work to suppress development. Towards the interior, rain
chances remain below 10% today. Seasonable temperatures are
forecast across east central Florida, with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s and lows falling into the 60s.

While weather conditions appear favorable overall today, the
breezy and gusty northeast winds will result in unfavorable beach
and boating conditions. A high risk of rip currents persists at
all east central Florida beaches, with rough surf and breaking
waves of 5 to 7 feet possible. This rough, pounding surf is
anticipated to result in continued beach erosion. Additionally,
the return of high astronomical tides begins at the southern
beaches, with a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for St. Lucie and
Martin county beaches today. Overall, entering the surf is
strongly discouraged and caution should be exercised if even
planning on going to the beaches, especially during times of high
tide (roughly 5-7 AM and PM).

Saturday-Thursday...The high pressure across the eastern US will
continue to strengthen through this weekend and into early next
week while an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along
the stalled boundary draped across the Bahamas. This will lead to
a continued tightening of the pressure gradient across east
central Florida and therefore, even breezier and gustier
conditions are forecast locally. Northeasterly winds increase to
20 to 25 mph this weekend, with gusts of 30 to 45 mph possible at
times, especially along the coast. Wind Advisories will likely be
needed for at least portions of east central Florida through the
weekend, and there is even the potential for these windy
conditions to persist into early next week as the low lingers out
across the western Atlantic. In addition to the windy conditions,
moisture is forecast to gradually increase through the weekend,
resulting in higher rain chances across east central Florida. The
northeast winds will support onshore-moving showers, and there is
a low chance (20-30%) for storm development with some activity.
Rain chances will remain highest along the coast (50-80%), with
lower rain chances (30-50%) across the interior through Monday.
There is a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall outlooked
along the coast through Monday, with minor flooding possible due
to repeated rounds of showers and training bands that could
develop. By Tuesday, guidance indicates the potential for some
drier conditions returning to the area and therefore, lower rain
chances. Temperatures are anticipated to remain seasonable in the
upper 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours and int he 60s
overnight.

High astronomical tides return to the east central Florida coast
this weekend and into next week, which unfortunately coincides
with this extended period of strong onshore flow. This will lead
to prolonged hazardous coastal conditions along the east central
Florida coast through this weekend and into next week. Rough,
pounding surf from breaking waves of 7 to 15 feet, moderate to
major beach erosion, minor to moderate coastal flooding, and a
high risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days.
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Saturday,
transitioning into a Coastal Flood Watch on Sunday that will
likely be extended through early next week. High Surf Advisories
will likely be needed beginning late Saturday, continuing into
early next week. Overall, conditions will be hazardous and
dangerous and entering the surf is STRONGLY discouraged. Even
visiting the beach could become hazardous, especially during
periods of high tide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to persist across the
local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into early next
week. A tightening pressure gradient will result in increasingly
breezy and windy northeast winds, with sustained winds of 15 to 25
knots today and tonight increasing to 20 to 30 knots Saturday
onward. Wind gusts also increase, reaching gale-force by Saturday
evening. These increasing winds will cause seas to surge, with 6
to 8 foot seas today reaching a peak of 12 to 15 feet late this
weekend into early next week. At this time, forecast winds and
seas are slow to subside through next week, resulting in a
prolonged period of hazardous boating conditions across the local
Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories are already in effect for
the local waters through Saturday, with Gale Watches expanding
from north to south late Saturday into Sunday. Aside from the
hazardous boating conditions, rain chances are forecast to
increase through this weekend as moisture increases. Low rain
chances today (20-40%) increase this weekend and Monday (40-80%).
There remains a low chance (20-30%) of storm development with
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Generally VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
NW/N flow early this morning veering NNE/NE during the day on Fri.
Wind speeds increase 12-15 kts with frequent higher gusts, esp along
the coast. Speeds remain elevated 5-10 kts over the interior Fri
night and 10-15 kts with higher gusts continuing along the coast.
Mostly dry weather is expected, however, ISOLD showers near the
coastal TAF sites later in the day and tonight cannot be ruled out.
Weekend becomes unsettled as the outlook calls for increasing
NNE/NE/ENE winds and frequently gusty. Onshore-moving shower chances
also increase with ISOLD lightning storms in play.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  66  79  69 /  10  20  70  70
MCO  80  64  81  69 /  10  10  20  30
MLB  81  68  81  70 /  20  20  30  70
VRB  82  69  83  70 /  10  10  30  70
LEE  79  60  79  65 /   0   0  30  10
SFB  80  63  80  68 /  10  10  40  50
ORL  80  63  81  68 /   0  10  20  30
FPR  82  67  83  69 /  20  10  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ141-154-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
     night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ550-552.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AMZ555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion