Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

128
FXUS62 KMLB 211846
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
246 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- An unsettled pattern will continue to produce scattered to
  numerous afternoon showers and storms across the area through
  Thursday.

- A cool front late week will bring lower rain chances and drier
  air into the weekend.

- Breezy northeast winds behind the front will lead to
  deteriorating beach and boating conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...A stalled upper level low lingers over
the Florida peninsula today. This feature is providing enough
enhancement to develop scattered to numerous showers and storms
along the sea breeze early this afternoon, mainly south of
Orlando. Expect this activity to continue westward through this
afternoon, clearing into the western half of the peninsula by
sunset. Mostly dry conditions then prevail overnight over land
areas. However, persistent showers and storms over the Atlantic
waters may occasionally drift onshore into coastal areas
overnight. The main threats with any storms through this afternoon
will be gusty winds to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally
heavy downpours of 1-3". Low temperatures dip into the lower to
mid-70s tonight. Patchy fog will be possible over the interior,
especially north of Orlando.

An upper level trough dropping through the central US will push
the low NE and merge with it through Wednesday. Deep moisture
(PWATs 2-2.3") and the continued unsettled pattern will maintain
higher coverage of showers and storms (40-70%) through mid-week. A
few strong storms will remain possible. But, 500 mb temperatures
warming from around -8 C today to -5 to -6 C by Wednesday will
limit the threat overall. Onshore flow becomes increasingly NNE
through the period, but remains around 10 mph or less. Winds
overnight become light and variable, so will need to monitor the
threat for patchy fog each night, especially over the interior.
Otherwise, warm highs continue to reach the upper 80s to lower
90s, which combine with high humidity to produce heat indices
98-102 degrees.

Thursday-Monday...A strong low pressure system develops into
Thursday morning offshore from the NE US. Meanwhile, the upper
level trough digs into Florida, dragging a cool front southward
through the peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms again
on Thursday (50-70%), mainly along the weakening front. However,
will see progressively lower rain chances from north to south into
the weekend, as drier air filters into the area. PWATs fall below
1.5" this weekend, leading to PoPs 20-40% or less, highest across
southern portions of the forecast area.

A tightening pressure gradient will produce breezy and gusty NNE
winds behind the front beginning on Thursday. Winds build to 10-15
mph Thursday afternoon and 15-20 mph Friday, with gusts 20-30 mph.
The highest winds are forecast along the coast, especially north
of the Cape. Breezy conditions linger Saturday, before winds fall
to around 10 mph again into early next week. Enhanced onshore flow
will lead to poor to hazardous beach conditions this weekend.
Slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are
forecast, though lower humidity will provide relief from heat
indices above 100. Inland locations could even see lows in the
60s by the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially overnight,
will remain a threat over the local Atlantic waters through
Wednesday. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating
conditions persist, with NE winds remaining around 10 kts or less.
Seas 1-3 ft.

A nor`easter off of the NE US coast will drag a cool front through
the local waters Thursday. NE winds increase to 20-25 kts,
progressing farther southward into Friday. Winds then remain
breezy around 10-15 kts into the first half of the weekend. Higher
coverage of showers and storms lingers Thursday, before drier air
reduces chances into the weekend. Hazardous seas up to 6-9 ft are
forecast to continue into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Ongoing showers and storms around the I-95 corridor and moving
inland with the sea breeze. Have maintained TEMPOs/PROB30 starting
at 18Z for all sites, except DAB, with VCTS ongoing for all
sites. Any lingering showers and storms will diminish or push out
of the local area around 00Z, with mostly dry conditions forecast
overnight. However, isolated showers and storms may brush along
the coast through the overnight hours. E/NE winds 5-9 KT this
afternoon will become light and variable overnight before
becoming more E/NE and increasing to around 5 KT by late morning
Tuesday. Have included VCSH staring along the coast at 15Z and
VCTS starting at 17Z for MCO Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  88 /  20  30  10  60
MCO  73  91  74  90 /  20  50  20  70
MLB  74  88  75  88 /  20  40  20  60
VRB  73  88  73  88 /  20  50  30  60
LEE  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  60
SFB  73  90  74  89 /  10  50  10  70
ORL  74  90  75  90 /  10  50  20  70
FPR  72  89  73  88 /  30  60  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion