Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

453
FXUS62 KMLB 221850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across
  east central Florida through this weekend and into next week.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning,
  strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy
  downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak
  heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria.
  Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to
  practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered convection has been able to
overcome dry air across west central Florida late this morning and
through early this afternoon with some activity already moving
into interior portions of east central Florida. Based on these
trends, healthy development of scattered cu, and more recent
aggressive runs of the high-res guidance, have nudged up rain
chances across the local area through this evening (~40-50%). The
highest coverage is generally forecast along collisions with the
east coast sea breeze across portions of Okeechobee, Osceola,
eastern Orange, Brevard, and eastern Volusia. Up to this point,
drier air seems to have suppressed updraft height and intensity.
However, continued surface heating and future boundary collisions
may allow a few updrafts to punch further through the dry layer,
and stronger storms that can develop will be capable of frequent
to excessive lightning, wind gusts of 40-55 mph, small hail, and
heavy downpours. Expect coverage to diminish from west to east
through late afternoon and into the evening with dry conditions
forecast overnight. Low temperatures mostly fall into the mid 70s.

Sunday-Monday... A mid to upper level trough persists over the
eastern U.S. on Sunday before gradually lifting northeastward on
Monday. Light offshore flow continues through late this weekend,
turning out of the south on Monday as the western Atlantic high
transitions northward and settles over the central Florida
peninsula. Some uncertainty still exists in rain chances on Sunday
as drier air is modeled within the layer from 850-500mb. However, a
passing shortwave aloft looks to provide enough localized moisture
and energy to support a mention of isolated to scattered rain
chances (20-40%) across portions of east central Florida Sunday
afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy broadens and mostly
dissipates by Monday with the drier air then limiting rain chances
mostly below 20-30% for much of the area. Cold temperatures aloft
(~ -7C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface
heating will continue support for a few strong storms, particularly
on Sunday. Strong storms which develop will be capable of frequent
to excessive lightning, wind gusts 40-55mph, heavy downpours, and
small hail. Outside of showers and storms, hot temperatures persist
in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values ranging 102-107F.

Tuesday-Friday... A broadening trough pattern will support a series
of mid-level shortwaves over the eastern U.S. next week. High
pressure will persist at the surface with a ridge axis draped over
central Florida. Light southerly flow may often become variable
early each day before the sea breeze shifts winds onshore each
afternoon. Drier air persists on Tuesday, with PWATs increasing
closer to seasonal values mid to late week. This should result in
slightly below normal rain chances (20-40%) Tuesday, shifting closer
to normal (40-60%) from Wednesday onward. Coverage should follow
diurnal trends initiated by surface heating and boundary collisions.
Temperatures are forecast to hold near to slightly above normal
reaching the low to mid 90s each day, and humidity will allow peak
heat index values to exceed 100F through the extended forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue outside of storms. High
pressure across the south Florida waters through late this weekend
lifts northward and settles across the central Florida waters on
Monday. Prevailing light offshore flow (southwest) continues through
Sunday, turning south to southeast as the sea breeze develops.
Prevailing flow then shifts out of the south Monday and through
much of the upcoming week, still turning onshore with the sea
breeze each afternoon. Seas hold mostly 1-2 ft, briefly increasing
to 3 ft offshore early Sunday. Isolated to scattered offshore
moving storms in the afternoon and evenings will be capable of
frequent to excessive lighting, wind gusts to 34 kts or greater,
and locally higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Made a few timing adjustments to VCTS and PROB30s, but otherwise
no significant changes from the previous TAF package for this
afternoon/evening. Offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts has kept the
ECSB pinned, and is only now begging an inland push, shifting
winds onshore (S-SE) around 10 kts behind the boundary.
Confidence is TS evolution has decreased a bit. HREF guidance
continues to call for mainly ISO TS, but recent HRRR runs have
been more aggressive, especially along the sea breeze collision
near/between the coastal/inland terminals after 21Z, and neither
models have initialized well. Quick AMDs to upgrade PROB30s to
TEMPOs may be needed. +TSRA capable of locally high gusts +35 kts
and small hail are possible. TS/SH dissipate or move offshore
after 01Z, with some activity lingering to 03Z. Mostly quiet
conditions overnight, but an ISO SH or even TS can`t be ruled out.
High uncertainty in Sunday`s TS/SH chance, which guidance varying
between ISO to SCT coverage, and possibly an early start.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  93 /  40  40  10  20
MCO  76  95  76  96 /  30  30  20  20
MLB  77  94  77  93 /  40  20  20  20
VRB  75  93  75  92 /  30  20  10  20
LEE  75  92  75  94 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  76  94  75  95 /  40  40  20  30
ORL  77  94  76  95 /  30  30  20  30
FPR  76  93  75  92 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion