Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

402
FXUS62 KMLB 101954
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at
  Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the
  ocean.

- There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms
  Wednesday afternoon south of Melbourne, with wind gusts up to 50
  mph and coin-sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected.

- We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive
  in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind
  chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning
  from Greater Orlando northward.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last
  week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river
  forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...High pressure over the eastern US
weakens and moves offshore through Wednesday ahead of a low
pressure system dropping through the Great Lakes. Light winds
prevail this afternoon, with a low (20%) chance for a few showers
south of Orlando over the interior into this evening. A mid-level
shortwave is forecast to traverse the Florida peninsula on
Wednesday, supporting a slight increase in PoPs. PWATs >1.5" from
around Melbourne southward and energy aloft are expected to
generate scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon, while
areas to the north remain dry. A few strong storms will be
possible, with modest lapse rates and 500 mb temperatures near -10
to -11 C. The main threats will be gusty winds 45-50 mph and
hail. Temperatures remain above normal in the lower to mid-80s
during the daytime hours. However, will see lows tonight in the
upper 60s to lower 70s fall to the upper 50s to mid-60s Wednesday
night.

Thursday-Tuesday...The low pressure system moves through the
Northeast US late week and deepens. Locally, a pre-frontal trough
looks to pass through the Florida peninsula on Thursday, providing
a precursor reduction in available moisture, humidity, and
temperatures. PoPs decrease area-wide for Thursday, with just a
few lingering showers possible along the southern Treasure Coast
(20%) due to continued moisture across south Florida. High
temperatures cool to nearer to normal, in the upper 70s to near
80, with overnight lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s from
near Orlando northward. Westerly winds Thursday increase to around
10-15 mph.

However, the biggest change will follow the main, stronger cold
front on Friday. Much drier air behind the front will decrease
PWATs to 0.5" or less. Thus, PoPs below 10% continue through the
weekend. Northwesterly winds on Friday veer northerly on
Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s
north of I-4 and in the lower 70s elsewhere on Friday fall
further, into the mid to upper 60s on Saturday. Overnight lows
Friday night and Saturday night fall into the mid to upper 40s
across the normally cooler locations, while the coast remains in
the lower 50s. But, winds hovering around 5-10 mph overnight will
produce wind chills in the lower to mid-40s inland. Moisture and
temperatures rebound Sunday and into early next week, as ridging
builds into the eastern US. Temperatures slowly climb to near
normal through the period, with low to medium (20-40%) PoPs
returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist through Wednesday,
as high pressure lingers over the area. Winds become offshore
through the period, remaining around 10-12 kts or less. Seas
2-4ft, as seas to 5ft in the Gulf Stream diminish. A few to
scattered showers are possible offshore overnight tonight. Then,
are forecast along the southern Space and Treasure Coasts
Wednesday afternoon. A few storms may be strong, with gusty winds
to 40 kts and hail.

A series of cold fronts is forecast into the weekend, beginning
Thursday. W to NW winds Thursday night and Friday increase to
15-25 kts, especially offshore. Periods of poor to hazardous winds
then continue through at least Saturday, before conditions begin
to improve Sunday. Seas build to 4-6ft as winds increase,
especially in the Gulf Stream. Drier air behind the fronts will
reduce rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Light and variable winds across the interior with onshore winds
along the coast at 5-10 KT. Winds will become light and variable
across east central Florida overnight. Patchy fog may be possible
once again late tonight and into early Wednesday morning, mainly
along and north of the I-4 corridor. Have not included in TAFs at
this time though, due to low confidence. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Winds will become west to
southwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fire weather conditions remain above critical thresholds through
Thursday. Then, drier air filtering in behind a cold front is
forecast to reduce min RH values to 40-45% from Melbourne
northward on Friday and 35-45% on Saturday. NW winds 10-15 mph
Friday become N on Saturday. Moisture looks to return Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over
the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1)
is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast
to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five
days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast
Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online
at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy
rain is not forecast. There is a 10-20% chance of localized
rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Treasure Coast. The
next significant rain chance should then hold off through at least
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  60  80 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  69  83  64  79 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  70  83  65  80 /  20  30  10   0
VRB  69  85  65  80 /  20  40  20  10
LEE  67  82  62  79 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  67  83  62  80 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  68  83  63  79 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  69  84  65  79 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion