Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

656
FXUS62 KMLB 100731
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
331 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and
  evening, mainly from Vero Beach northward with diurnal shower
  and storm chances increasing each day through mid-week.

- Some storms and may be strong to severe today and Monday.
  Primary storm hazards are frequent lightning, strong to damaging
  winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A tornado can not be
  ruled out.

- Highs remain above normal through Monday with peak heat indices
  forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 105F. Temperatures
  become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday before slowly
  increasing once again into mid/late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure over the western Atlantic
will slowly shift southward through the day, with the axis remaining
across south Florida. Several rounds of shortwave energy will
traverse across north-central Florida. Locally, southwest winds
around 10 mph will veer onshore and increase to 10-15 mph in the
afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Ample moisture will remain
present across the local area (PW values 1.8-2.0"), which will
support a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain. The highest
rain and storm chances will be from Vero Beach northward.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put portions of east central
Florida into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday, mainly from
northern Indian River/Okeechobee counties northward. Because of
this, some storms may be strong to marginally severe. The storm
environment supports this with forecast soundings showing ample
instability (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km of 30-
40 KT), and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE of 900-1100 J/kg).
Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, with isolated severe storms
producing 60+mph wind gusts, small hail ( with a 5-14% chance of
hail 1.0"), and locally heavy down pours. A tornado can not be ruled
out where storm and sea breeze boundaries collide.

Hot and humid conditions will continue today, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s
across the south. These temperatures coupled with humidity will
produce peak heat indices of 98-103 degrees. Overnight lows will be
warm, providing little relief, with lows in the 70s. These
conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across much of
the area. Fire sensitive conditions will continue today as min RH
values drop to around 45 percent across the southern interior.

Monday... A weak front will approach the area on Monday, pushing
through east central Florida Monday night. Locally, westerly winds
around 10 mph will veer onshore in the afternoon with the east coast
sea breeze, which will be pinned closer to the coast than the past
couple days. Winds will then veer northwest on Monday night ahead of
the front. Moisture remain high across the local area, with PW
values of 1.9-2.0", which will continue to support a medium to high
(50-80 percent) chance of rain. Highest rain and storm chances will
generally be Orlando eastward.

Some storms may be strong to marginally severe once again. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has put all of east central Florida into a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Forecast soundings support this by
showing ample instability (MUCAPE 1800-2400 J/kg), sufficient shear
(SFC-6km of 20-30 KT), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE of
500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, with a 5-14% chance of
wind gusts of 60+mph, hail, with a 5-14% chance of hail 1.0", and
locally heavy down pours. A tornado can not be ruled out.

Hot and humid once again, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s across the south, with
peak heat indices of 98-105. Not much relief overnight, with lows
in the 70s. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate
to Major HeatRisk.

Tuesday-Saturday... A series of upper level troughs across the Great
Lakes region will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic through
late week. The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to push
into South Florida by early Tuesday morning, becoming quasi-
stationary across south Florida. Surface high pressure will then
build over the local area from the Deep South behind the front.
Locally, winds will veer onshore behind the front continuing into
late week. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon,
enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph. Lingering moisture and instability
will be slow to dissipate, resulting in increasing rain chances
through mid-week, with shortwave energy aloft aiding convection.
There is a medium to high (30-60 percent) chance of rain, especially
in the afternoon. The highest potential for showers and storms on
Tuesday will be from Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee eastward.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue Wednesday and
Thursday, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward.  Mostly dry
conditions are forecast Friday, with isolated showers (20 percent)
around Lake Okeechobee on Saturday. Temperatures return closer to
seasonal values on Tuesday (in the 80s) behind the front, but then
steadily increase into the low 90s by mid-late week.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Today-Thursday... Increased moisture will remain in place, resulting
in an increased shower and lightning storm threat today through
Tuesday, aided by boundary collisions across the eastern peninsula
each day/evening, with activity being pushed back towards the coast.
A few storms may be strong to marginally severe. Primary storm
threats will be frequent lightning strikes and strong to damaging
wind gusts.

Another weak front will then approach on Monday, passing through the
local waters on Monday night and shifting into South Florida on
Tuesday, becoming quasi-stationary through mid-week. S/SE winds at
10-15 KT today will veer offshore in the evening/overnight (and may
increase briefly late each day/evening to 15-20 KT promoting
temporary poor boating). SW winds ahead of the boundary at 10-15 KT
will become N/NW post-frontal on Monday overnight/early Tuesday,
then shift NE/E during the day Tuesday increasing to 15-20 KT. Seas
2-4ft will increase to 3-5ft on Tuesday and up to 7ft in the
offshore waters by Tuesday night before subsiding to 4-6ft on
Wednesday night, and 3-5ft on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR anticipated thru at least 17z before sct TSRA develops in the
aft/eve hours. Most sites (except LEE) carry VCTS after 19z with
the focus for development along the east and west coast breezes,
which models suggest will collide just east of MCO. A few strong
TSRA with 35+ kt gusts are possible, along with CIG/VIS
reductions. TEMPOs are likely in future updates as confidence
increases in select terminal impacts (esp. coastal sites).

Light/variable winds turn SW around 7-12 kt after 15z, veering
onshore as the ECSB forms after 16-18z, then becoming
light/variable again after 02-03z Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

While Min RH values will recover slightly today, fire sensitive
conditions remain as min RH values drop to around 45 percent this
afternoon. South to southwest winds will be around 10 mph, with the
east coast sea breeze backing the winds onshore (E-SE) and
increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon, mainly east of Orlando.
Isolated to scattered (numerous at times) showers and lightning
storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Lightning
strikes could cause new fires. Temperatures will be hot and humid
this weekend with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak
heat indices of 95-103 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  88  71 /  60  20  70  60
MCO  91  75  89  73 /  60  20  70  50
MLB  90  78  88  75 /  60  30  70  60
VRB  91  77  91  74 /  50  40  70  60
LEE  90  74  90  72 /  40  10  60  40
SFB  91  73  90  71 /  60  10  70  60
ORL  91  75  89  73 /  60  20  70  60
FPR  91  77  91  74 /  40  40  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion