Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

377
FXUS62 KMLB 111041
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
641 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- A gradual increase in showers and storms is expected each day
  through the weekend. Excessive rainfall rates within slow-moving
  storms will be capable of causing flooding in urban and poorly-
  drained locations. Expect frequent lightning and spotty wind
  gusts from 40 to 50 mph from the strongest storms.

- Outside of the storms, seasonably high moisture and increasingly
  hot temperatures are forecast. With Moderate to locally Major
  HeatRisk over Central Florida, residents and visitors should
  remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C if
  feeling unwell.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please swim near a
  lifeguard.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Early this morning, flat mid-level ridging extends across the
southern United States. Above-normal H5 heights are in place
over Florida. Shortwave energy and a trough are located over the
Northern Plains. In the tropics, an inverted trough is situated
from the Yucatan Peninsula to near El Salvador, and deep-layer
ridging resides across the Caribbean Sea. Moisture has returned
to near-typical June values over the Florida peninsula, with PWATs
of 90 to 120% of normal.

There is high confidence in the pattern evolution over the next week
or so, and no major weather disturbances appear to be in sight for
Florida. Global ensembles place a mid-level ridge over the northern
Gulf by this weekend as the inverted trough pivots into the Bay
of Campeche. High-latitude blocking forming over the Labrador Sea
should cause the shortwave over the northern U.S. to stall once
it reaches the northern Great Lakes by Sunday. Ensembles deepen
this feature into a longwave trough over the Midwest by Monday or
Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Bermuda high is likely to expand over the
western subtropical Atlantic early next week, its axis extending
westward into the southeastern Gulf.

In response to the upper-air pattern, the surface high pressure
axis is expected to slowly sink southward, reaching Central Florida
over the next 24 hours. Falling heights over the mid-latitudes
will continue to slowly force the near-surface ridge axis to drift
toward the Florida Straits by late Sunday. Guidance suggests the
surface ridge may begin to lift northward in about a week.

In this regime, sea breeze collisions should begin to favor the
eastern half of the peninsula by Friday or Saturday. The corridor
of highest PWATs is forecast to stay along a quasi-stationary front
just to the north of Florida, but seasonable moisture should remain
in place. Throughout the period, 5 kft (H85) temperatures remain
near to above normal by 1-2 deg C. Consequently, local impacts
will be dictated by oppressive summerlike heat and humidity and
scattered convection.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today & Friday...

For this morning, there is a slight chance for a shower or storm
to clip the coast generally from Melbourne and points southward.

For the remainder of the work week, we will continue to track
sea breeze-driven showers and storms developing in the afternoon
and early evening hours. While a few storms should try to form on
the Atlantic breeze by early afternoon near or just west of I-95,
the collision with the Gulf breeze will need to be watched closely
for a few strong storms producing frequent lightning strikes and
localized excessive rainfall. Water-loaded downdrafts will have
a low chance of producing wind gusts to 40-50 mph.

The WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard shows a 10-20% chance of rainfall
totals reaching 5-year ARI thresholds, which is enough to cause
flooding in poorly drained or populated locations. The collision
zone with greatest rainfall potential should lie near or west of
Orlando late today, but slightly farther east with higher coverage
through Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties on Friday.

High temperatures should range up to 5 degrees above normal,
with peak heat indices in the upper 90s to around 104 deg F.

This Weekend - Early Next Week...

With the surface ridge axis heading to our south this weekend, ample
moisture and weak offshore flow should continue to promote at least
scattered afternoon and evening storms over east central Florida. In
a change from recent days, greater rainfall opportunities will also
extend to the coast. Beach-goers will need to watch for darkening
western skies and seek shelter well ahead of any arriving storms
off the mainland.

Weak steering flow, particularly through Sunday, should support
localized instances of flooding where storms sit and/or repeat.

A delayed sea breeze will allow temperatures to turn a bit hotter,
with widespread low/mid 90s in store. Peak heat indices from 100
to 107 deg F can be anticipated. This adds up to moderate HeatRisk
conditions at the very least, and local pockets of Major HeatRisk
along the urban I-4 and coastal corridors. This type of heat,
while not uncommon in Florida, is significant enough to cause
heat-related illness, especially for those with compromised health
or lack of access to hydration and/or cooling.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure persists over the Western Atlantic this morning, with
its axis extending from near Bermuda to the Florida Panhandle. It
is forecast to slowly settle southward, reaching South Florida
this weekend. Seas will remain favorable for boating, with some
daily enhancement to winds behind the sea breeze. A few showers
and storms remain possible, with offshore-moving storms becoming
more of a hazard by this weekend.

Prevailing seas 2-3 ft through the weekend. Southeasterly winds
up to 12 kt each afternoon, turning southwesterly up to around 8
kt at night and early in the morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevailing across east central Florida through the
period. Typical sea breeze pattern today, with convection focused
along the breeze and the collision late this afternoon and into
the evening hours. The highest coverage is expected generally west
of MCO/ISM, but have included TEMPOs for all interior sites after
20Z. Convection is then forecast to linger into the evening hours,
diminishing by around 2Z. Showers and storms will be slow moving
and could produce gusty winds, in addition to lightning strikes
and heavy rainfall. Coastal sites look to remain dry overall.
Onshore winds increase to near 10 kts behind the sea breeze,
beginning along the coast after 15Z. Then, light and variable
winds overnight and into Friday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  91  75 /  30  10  30  20
MCO  91  75  92  75 /  50  20  60  40
MLB  88  77  90  76 /  20  10  40  20
VRB  88  75  90  75 /  20  10  40  10
LEE  91  76  93  76 /  50  30  30  30
SFB  92  75  94  76 /  50  20  50  30
ORL  91  75  93  77 /  50  20  50  30
FPR  88  74  89  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Wishard

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion