Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

922
FXUS62 KMLB 212012
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Continued very warm today with one more day of near-record
  highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- A strong cold front will bring a band of showers Sunday followed
  by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical fire weather
  conditions are forecast. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
  for all of east central Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday
  evening.

- Hazardous to dangerous seas and winds are forecast to develop
  behind the front on Sunday going through Monday. Occasional
  gusts to Gale force and seas building to 13 feet in the Gulf
  Stream Sunday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with
  frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon
  night/Tue morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure axis will remain in place across the
Florida peninsula today. At the surface, low pressure will develop
along a stationary front across the deep South, deepening tonight
along the Carolina coast, which will push the trailing cold front
into north Florida later tonight. Locally, southwest wind flow will
persist with speeds around 10 mph or less each day. The east coast
sea breeze is once again forecast to form later this afternoon and
push inland. Mostly dry conditions today, with no mentionable rain
chances through this evening. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of
the aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia
counties around sunrise. Otherwise, dry through the overnight hours.

Temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of
year, with temperatures near record highs once again. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with plenty of sunshine.
There is a good chance for more sites to tie or even break record
highs this afternoon (see below). Overnight lows both nights will be
in the upper 50s to low 60s, possibly reaching mid 60s in the
Orlando Metro area. Patchy fog will once again be possible across
all of east central Florida late tonight into Saturday morning.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level low pressure across the eastern edge of
the Midwest on Sunday will shift eastward towards the Atlantic coast
before moving northward along the NE US coast on Monday. At the
surface, a closed low along the coast of NC/VA will drag a trailing
strong cold front across east central Florida on Sunday as it moves
northward along the NE coast. Surface high pressure will then move
from TX/LA into the Gulf on Tuesday, with the axis building over the
Florida peninsula. Locally, drier air will move in behind the front,
with forecast PW values ranging from 0.8-1.5" ahead of the front to
0.1-0.2" behind the front. The front will also bring back rain
chances to east central Florida, although rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than 0.25" across most areas. There is a medium
to high (60-70 percent) chance of showers across the whole area on
Sunday. Forecast soundings show limited instability (CAPE around 750
J/kg), so lightning storm chances remain low at this time, and
mainly confined to the I-4 corridor south of Daytona and extending
to around Cape Canaveral.

West to southwest winds around daybreak on Sunday will veer
northwest and become breezy to gusty behind the front, increasing to
around 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Northwest winds will remain
around 10-15 mph Sunday night and through Monday. Due to these
stronger winds and very low min RH values, critical fire weather
conditions are forecast through Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for all of east central Florida Sunday afternoon through
Monday evening.

Temperatures ahead of the front will be well above  normal,
especially across the south. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be mid
to upper 70 across the north and low to mid 80s across the south.
Monday will be noticeably cooler, with afternoon highs ranging from
mid 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to
mid 40s Sunday night, and low to mid 30s on Monday night. Lows have
trended slightly cooler on Monday night, with many locations across
the interior reaching at or just below freezing. Due to the
persistent NW breeze, lowest wind chills on Sunday night into Monday
will fall into the low to mid 30s, and mid to upper 20s on Monday
night into Tuesday. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed
for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure across the Gulf will
slowly shift eastward and over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday
night. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward and out
into the Atlantic Wednesday with the axis remaining over the Florida
peninsula through late week and into the weekend. Locally, north to
northwest winds on Tuesday will shift southerly on Wednesday and
remain in place through late week. Wind speeds will generally be
light, at 10 mph or less through the period. Temperatures will be on
a warming trend through the week, with temperatures reaching low to
mid 80s by late week. Overnight lows will also be on a warming
trend, with lows in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s to low 40s
around the Orlando metro and along the coast on Tuesday night,
warming to the 50s by mid/late week. Radiational cooling will be
excellent on Tuesday night due to the clear skies, and coupled with
the high pressure over head and light winds, the potential for frost
is increasing where temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today- Tonight... Generally good boating conditions as the high
pressure ridge axis will remain across Florida today. This will
result in south to southwest flow persisting across the local waters
with speeds around 10 KT KT. However, winds will veer onshore (SE)
later this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes
onshore. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Seas 2-4 FT. No mentionable rain chances this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the
northern Volusia waters near sunrise.

Sunday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous discussion) Deteriorating
boating conditions Sunday into early next week. A strong cold front
will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and
possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds
will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread
all the local Atlc waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the VOlusia waters and offshore Brevard waters starting Sunday
morning. The SCA expands to all the waters Sunday afternoon, with
the offshore Volusia/Brevard waters transition to a Gale Watch going
through at least Monday morning. The Gale Watch may need to be
upgraded to a Warning on the next package. The SCA and Gale will
likely need to be extended in time. Seas will rapidly build to 13 FT
in the Gulf Stream Sun night and early Mon. Occasional gusts to Gale
force are forecast Sun evening offshore Volusia and Brevard.
Conditions will remain hazardous for boating through Mon night.
Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind
component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5
FT nearshore. High pressure will become centered over the FL
peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge
axis across south FL. Winds quickly veer to an offshore component
and seas fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

SW winds persist at the interior terminals through this afternoon,
with the ECSB moving inland and causing the coastal terminals to
become more onshore. Winds then become light and variable
overnight. Patchy fog development from MLB southward along the
coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains too low at
this time to make a mention of within the forecast. Will continue
to monitor and amend as needed. Early Sunday, a cold front
approaches from the north, with increasing chances for VCSH and
VCTS at the terminals. Winds veer NW at 15 to 20 knots with gusts
to 30 knots possible. Anticipate any showers and storms to
diminish between 20-23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through the weekend and
into early next week. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% this
afternoon across the whole area. Southwest winds will remain around
10 mph or less today. A strong cold front will then push through the
local area on Sunday. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% across the
northern interior on Sunday with min RH values recovering slightly
to 45-55% across the south. Southwest winds will become northwest
and breezy to gusty (15 mph gusting 25-30 mph) behind the front. As
the drier air settles over the Florida peninsula Monday, min RH
values will drop to 20-30% areawide and northwest winds will be near
15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph once again. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued starting Sunday afternoon going through Monday evening.
Parts if not all of the CWA will likely be put into a Red Flag
Warning Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Record Highs for today, Feb 21st:


            RECORD  NORMAL
      DATE   HIGH    HI
DAB  21-Feb 87 1989  72
LEE  21-Feb 87 2018  74
SFB  21-Feb 87 2003  75
MCO  21-Feb 88 1989  76
MLB  21-Feb 88 1989  75
VRB  21-Feb 87 2014  76
FPR  21-Feb 89 1989  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  76  37  56 /  10  70   0   0
MCO  63  78  41  57 /   0  70   0   0
MLB  59  80  39  59 /   0  70   0   0
VRB  58  82  39  60 /   0  70  10   0
LEE  62  74  37  56 /  20  60   0   0
SFB  63  77  39  58 /  10  70   0   0
ORL  64  77  40  57 /  10  70   0   0
FPR  57  83  38  60 /   0  70  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ552-555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ570-
     572.

     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion