Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

086
FXUS62 KMLB 071127
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
627 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Behind a weak front, a seasonably warm and quiet stretch of
  weather is forecast through the middle of next week. A
  substantial pattern change is increasingly likely late next
  week, with our next appreciable chance for rain and cooler
  temperatures potentially following.

- A long-period swell is causing a high risk of life-threatening
  rip currents at Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin earlier
  this week. If affected by flooding, heed the advice of local
  officials. The latest river forecasts are available at
  water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low-pressure system over
the eastern Great Lakes. To its south, a weak shortwave trough is
pushing through the southern Appalachians. This feature is driving
a diffuse cold front toward the East Coast. The front is currently
over North Florida and is forecast to pass through the peninsula
over the next 12 to 18 hours. Continental high pressure follows
close behind and is set to hold across the Southern U.S. through
the middle of next week.

A series of shortwaves emanating from the Pacific Northwest is
forecast to energize the polar jet stream along the U.S.-Canadian
border beginning this weekend. With a weaker subtropical jet
to its south, the overall split-flow pattern remains generally
quasi-zonal and benign for Florida and surrounding areas through
around Wednesday. Moisture levels are forecast to remain near
seasonable norms as 850 mb (around 5,000 ft) temperatures stay
near or above normal through this period.

Significant pattern amplification appears likely late next week,
with meridional upper-level flow becoming more prevalent over
CONUS. As a trough over the northeast Pacific deepens, a ridge
should build across the Intermountain West. Downstream, a longwave
trough is expected to form over the Eastern U.S. The 06/12Z
ensemble suite is in fairly good agreement with this outcome. On
the troughs leading edge, a surface cold front may reach Florida
by late next Thursday or Friday. There is another wrinkle, as
nearly 40% of members send a ripple of subtropical energy over
Florida as the front passes.

Behind the front, below-normal temperatures are expected next
weekend. Given the uncertainty regarding the trough`s depth, the
extent of the cold advection will need to be fine-tuned. However,
with little to no blocking over the N Atlantic and substantial
Pacific jet stream energy upstream, this setup appears transient,
with temperature moderation favored beyond next weekend.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

This Weekend...

There may be a shower or two early this morning as the front passes
by, but rain amounts will be very light even if it occurs at your
location. We will watch for some patchy fog through daybreak as
winds are light and near-surface moisture is prevalent. If you
encounter fog, turn on your low-beam headlights and slow down.

Later today, most areas look to stay dry with rain chances under
15%. Beneath a mix of clouds and sunshine, pleasant autumn weather
is forecast. Highs should reach the low to mid 80s. Slightly drier
air will allow low temperatures early Sunday morning to dip into the
upper 50s northwest of Orlando. This will set up quite a gradient:
most areas should range through the 60s, except near and south of
Port St. Lucie, which may hold onto low 70s.

We will hang onto quiet conditions on Sunday as well, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies.

A long-period swell from a large area of low pressure south
of Bermuda is expected to cause numerous, life-threatening rip
currents at Atlantic beaches. In addition, astronomical tides will
increase this weekend as we approach a new moon. Minor to moderate
coastal flooding is possible, especially during the morning high
tides near and south of St. Lucie Inlet.

Monday - Wednesday...

Mostly tranquil weather is forecast to continue, with rain chances
at 20% or less. High pressure should remain in control of our
weather. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s are expected,
with lows mostly in the 60s. There are a few models that provide
enough moisture for slightly higher rain chances on Wednesday,
so this will be something to monitor. Most likely, any significant
rainfall potential will wait until late next week.

Thursday - next Saturday...

As the polar jet amplifies and a trough gathers over the Eastern
U.S., a stronger cold front should be dispatched toward the state
by late Thursday or Friday. As mentioned in the overview, a band
of rain and isolated lightning storms may accompany the front,
but guidance is nearly evenly split on whether this will occur.

The interaction of the polar and subtropical jets will help
determine the depth of the trough next weekend, and this has
major consequences for how much cooling will occur once the front
passes. Below-normal temperatures are expected, with high temps by
next Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast uncertainty
remains significant, with the middle 50% of ensemble solutions
spanning an 8 to 12 deg F temperature range across Central
Florida next Saturday. By next Sunday morning, statistical
guidance is forecasting low temps from the upper 40s over northern
Lake County to the mid-upper 50s along the coast. However, the
colder-end scenario (10th percentile) ranges from the low to mid
40s from Orlando northward to the low 50s at the immediate coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A weak cold front will pass through the local waters today. Behind
it, a sprawling area of high pressure is forecast to overtake the
Southern U.S. through early next week. Winds will turn northwesterly
today before veering out of the northeast on Sunday. Occasionally
poor boating conditions are expected in the Gulf Stream due to a
long-period easterly swell.

NW winds 10-15 kt today, turning NE 10 kt on Sunday and
Monday. Winds become light on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas 4-5 ft
nearshore, up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream, through Monday. Seas
will diminish to 2-4 ft by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 624 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Some spotty MVFR-IFR CIGs possible early this morning, but should
improve by mid-morning areawide. A weak "cool" front will push thru
the area without much fanfare. Drier air filters southward across
ECFL behind the boundary during the day. NW/N/NNE winds will develop
this morning/afternoon with speeds 5-10 kts. Winds become light this
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several days
through Minor and in some cases Moderate flood stage. The river
at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage this
weekend with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage towards
the middle of next week. River forecasts out five days are issued
twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in
collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  62  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  82  62  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  66  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  83  67  83  67 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  82  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  61  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  83  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  66  82  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion