Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

443
FXUS62 KMLB 081055
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
655 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with
  temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the
  interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety,
  please visit heat.gov.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River,
  St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today where peak
  heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F.

- Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of
  the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today-Thursday... Noticeably lower rain chances are forecast mid week
as waves of drier air pass through the mid levels. Isolated to
scattered coverage of showers and storms today (10-30%) trend
mostly dry on Thursday. However, there is low confidence in an
isolated shower (~20%) near and north of the Orlando metro
Thursday where a thin ribbon of deeper moisture may be present. As
rain chances are reduced, the greatest forecast emphasis shifts
towards a period of increasing heat as high pressure builds over
the region. Above normal temperatures will be greatest across
interior areas near and north of I-4 each day ranging the mid to
upper 90s today, and more widely spreading the upper 90s by
Thursday. Across the southern interior, highs mostly range the mid
90s with low to mid 90s spreading the coast. Peak heat index
values are forecast to top out around 105-107F across the north
today, but higher peak heat index values up to 109F are forecast
across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Therefore, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie,
and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today. Cannot rule out
additional Heat Advisories across portions of east central Florida
on Thursday. Warm conditions will persist after sunset and into
the evenings with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s
through midnight. Overnight lows mostly range the mid to upper
70s.

Friday-Tuesday... High pressure continues to control the local
weather pattern, keeping a period of above normal temperatures
through the weekend. Expect only small variations in afternoon highs
each day with the hottest conditions persisting across interior
regions near and north of I-4 (upper 90s) through at least Saturday.
Elsewhere, mid 90s continue with a few areas of low 90s along
portions of the immediate coast. The abnormally hot pattern begins
to slowly breakdown early next week as a mid to upper level trough
digs into the eastern U.S., and highs are nudged closer to normal
values by Tuesday. Heat index values exceeding 108F will continue to
be monitored with the potential for Heat Advisories across portions
of the area into the back half of the week. Never leave children or
pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock!

Despite surges of locally higher PWATs, model soundings suggest a
layer of drier air continuing through the mid levels. This should
generally help to suppress rain chances again on Friday, and NBM
PoPs have trended down over the last few forecast packages, now
showing only a 20-30% PoP in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. By
Saturday a weak mid level disturbance lifts across south Florida,
weakening as it approaches portions of central Florida. Currently
keeping NBM PoPs (30-60%) Saturday with the highest coverage
south, but will note high uncertainty as global ensemble members
show high spread. A better chance to see scattered showers and
storms could be by early next week as the influence of high
pressure begins to break down aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

An axis of high pressure over the local Atlantic waters will
maintain southerly winds and favorable boating conditions. Light
south to southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze
develops each afternoon. Late afternoon and evening winds may
increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlantic (generally north of the
Cape). Seas hold mostly 2-3 ft through late week, occasionally
building to 4 ft well offshore north of the Cape. Drier air will
keep lower rain chances across the local waters the next few days
with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms.
TAFs begin with light and variable winds. Winds will increase
from the SW at 5-10kts before backing SE at the coastal TAF sites
into the afternoon and evening at 6-12kts. VCTS is forecast at
KDAB after 18Z and at the Orlando Metro TAF sites after 20Z before
showers and lightning storms diminish by around 01Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week:

Site          July 8        July 9     July 10     July 11
Daytona     98  (1981)   97  (2022)   97 (2010)   98 (1980)
Leesburg    98  (2016)   97  (2016)   97 (2016)   97 (2016)
Sanford     100 (1969)   100 (2016)   97 (2007)   99 (1969)
Orlando     100 (1908)   98  (1932)   99 (1980)   98 (1989)
Melbourne   97  (1998)   96  (2023)   98 (1964)   97 (2010)
Vero Beach  98  (2024)   96  (2024)   97 (2022)   96 (2020)
Fort Pierce 97  (2024)   100 (1932)   96 (1981)   99 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  77  95  77 /  30  20  20   0
MCO  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  10   0
MLB  92  78  93  78 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  92  77  93  77 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  95  79  96  80 /  20  10  10   0
SFB  96  78  97  78 /  30  30  20   0
ORL  95  79  96  79 /  30  30  20   0
FPR  92  76  92  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Fehling

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion