Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

749
FXUS62 KMLB 241127
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
727 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms forecast
  across the East Central Florida interior this afternoon and
  evening. Storms could produce frequent lightning strikes,
  strong to locally damaging winds, small hail, and torrential
  downpours.

- Forecast continues to trend towards near to slightly above
  normal rain chances through the rest of the week. Forecast
  confidence decreases for early next week, but storms and above
  normal heat remain on tap.

- Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected
  through the forecast period, and Extreme impacts are possible
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Tonight...Troughing continues over the eastern US in
response to a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ribbons of
vorticity transiting the pattern have amplified the trough some,
pushing the base south over the Florida peninsula, but upper level
support for deep convection may dwindle as the day goes on
between the ridge axis already pushing offshore the east coast,
and the trough gradually weakening. Guidance continues to stick to
the latest trend, keeping the approaching weak front and drier
air near the boundary over North Florida, and near to slightly
below normal moisture over Central Florida. Notably, more moisture
is in the 850-700mb layer, which had been lacking the last couple
day and limiting rain chances. Weak offshore (WSW-SW) flow north
of the surface ridge axis will enhance the west coast sea breeze
and slow the east coast sea breeze, resulting in a collision and
scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms from near Lake
George to Orlando and to Lake Okeechobee in the late evening.

Prior to the collision, initially isolated showers and storms will
develop on the sea breezes in the early afternoon, gradually
increasing in coverage until the collision. Westerly steering flow
will push storms back towards the coast into the late evening and
early overnight before dissipating or moving offshore. Guidance
shows slight warming aloft as the trough departs and weakens (T500
around -7C), but still copious instability (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000
J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (7-9 C/km). Shear remains
weak at 20 kts or less, but low-level veering on boundaries could
provide some enhancement. Still some dry air present in the mid-
upper levels that could enhance downdrafts (DCAPE +800 J/kg).
Overall, primary storm hazards continue to be wind gusts 40-55
mph, with a very low chance (

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion