Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

836
FXUS62 KMLB 231830
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast
  this afternoon and evening, highest near and north of the I-4
  corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes,
  wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of
  1-3" locally.

- Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work-week as
  high pressure lifts northward across the Florida peninsula,
  with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from
  Wednesday onward as moisture increases.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures persist this week,
  but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and
  greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will
  be important for those spending extended periods of time
  outdoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Current-Tonight...Temperatures max out in the L90s (few M90s) this
afternoon with peak heat indices continuing above 100F, but
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are
strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat
illness. Mid-level troughing across central FL will aid SCT-NMRS (40-
60%) diurnal shower/lightning storm development this afternoon and
evening. Highest chances across the I-4 corridor where moisture is
deepest. WRLY flow will only permit ECSB development from near the
Cape southward and this feature may enhance pulse strong storms
across the Space & Treasure coasts later. Drier air aloft may
support local strong wind gusts in a few storms with other storm
impacts remaining frequent lightning strikes, and torrential
downpours leading to quick 1-3" rainfall totals for some.
Minor/nuisance flooding possible locally. Storm motion is light
westerly but could see occasional erratic storm movement from
stronger boundary collisions. Activity will wind down through the
mid-late evening across land with cloud-cover thinning overnight.
Min temperatures fall into the M70s.

Mon-Tue...Upper-level troughing across the eastern CONUS slowly
lifts north/east, though weak troughing in the mid-levels will
still provide daily enhancement to diurnal (albeit below normal)
shower and lightning storm chances across ECFL. At the surface,
weak surface ridging lifts north back into the central FL
peninsula as the pgrad remains fairly weak. This will result in
light southerly flow, allowing for earlier development and further
inland movement of the ECSB than recent days. Precip chances will
range b/n 20-40% on Mon and 30-50% Tue. Storm hazards continue to
be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph locally, and
heavy downpours. Weak storm steering flow will lead to slow and
erratic storm motion, which may increase the potential for minor,
localized flooding. Some storm activity may still push offshore
through the late evening hours with mostly dry conditions across
land overnight. Additional showers/storms possible overnight
across the local Atlantic waters.

Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above normal each
afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching
the M90s and L90s most everywhere else. Peak heat indices are
forecast to range between 102F to 107F, generally just below Heat
Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors
will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade
or A/C to prevent heat-related illness. Low temps continue in the
M70s.

Wed-Sun...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...Broad mid-
level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards and gradually
across the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the
weekend. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across
the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing
through Fri, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge
axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east
coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist
air mass in place, will support a near normal/slightly above
normal (40-70%) diurnal pattern of shower and storm development
each day. Primary storm impacts remain lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours leading to occasional minor/nuisance
flooding. General model trends favor activity diminishing into
the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will remain
near normal in the L90s during the afternoon hours, falling into
the M70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are
anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still
exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Previous Marine Discussion Modified...Generally favorable boating
conditions persist across the local waters through this week. The
Atlantic surface high lifts north across the waters starting Mon,
causing the southwesterly winds to become more southerly. Light
offshore winds 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning
hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast
during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each
day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 ft, with the highest
seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered
shower and lightning storm development will be forecast, with
activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each
afternoon into the evening hours. Continued shower/storm
development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be
possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water
lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, heavy
downpours, and locally higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

ISO-SCT TS have developed INVOF the northern ECFL terminals, and
SCT-NUM TS in WCFL are working eastward on the Gulf breeze. The
ECSB remain pinned off the coast by offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10
kts, and is forecast to make only a brief inland push from KMLB-
KSUA (if at all) before outflow and the WCSB overruns the coast
after around 20Z. Additional TS are expected on the collision
before moving offshore, though some TS may become slow/erratic/
stationary and produce longer periods of impacts. Adjusted TS and
TEMPO timing earlier in AMDs and the 18Z package across the board
at northern terminals. +TSRA capable of locally high gusts +35 kts
again possible. Most TS/SH forecast to dissipate or move offshore
after 23Z, but some activity may linger as late as 04Z. Quiet VFR
overnight once convection clears. Winds become light southerly/VRB
overnight and forecast to continue Monday, allowing the ECSB to
develop and move inland at a more typical rate, shifting winds
SSE-SE around 10 kts. Lower coverage of afternoon TS/SH forecast
Monday, but another early start remains possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  92 /  10  20  10  50
MCO  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  10  40
MLB  76  93  77  93 /  20  20  10  40
VRB  75  93  75  92 /  20  20  10  30
LEE  75  93  76  92 /   0  20  10  40
SFB  75  94  75  93 /  10  30  10  40
ORL  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  40
FPR  75  93  75  92 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion