Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

513
FXUS62 KMLB 250700
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating
  conditions are forecast across east central Florida through at
  least the middle of this week. Heading to the beach and
  entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents,
  and Gale conditions are forecast over the next several days.

- Scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast over the next
  several days, with the highest rain chances focused along the
  coast. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated
  rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of
  showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Today-Tonight...Onshore-moving showers that developed during the
early morning hours will continue through much of today, with
strong northeasterly winds helping to push activity far inland.
Rain chances range between 30-70%, highest along the Treasure
Coast and across the local Atlantic waters. The entire coast
remains outlooked in at least a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive
rainfall today, with portions of the Treasure Coast included in a
Slight Risk (2/4). This is due to the potential for repeated
rounds of showers throughout the day along with the possibility
for some training bands to develop due to the persistent
northeasterly flow. Rainfall totals reaching 2-3" will be
possible, with locally higher amounts not able to be ruled out,
especially along the coast. Isolated storm development will also
be possible with activity, though confidence remains low (20-30%).
Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing
occasional lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45 mph, and heavy
downpours. Activity is anticipated to continue into the overnight
hours, though coverage will likely decrease some beyond 8 PM.

Strong high pressure remains situated north of Florida while to
the south, a stalled boundary stays draped across the Bahamas,
with both features helping to maintain a tight pressure gradient
across Florida. The resulting northeasterly winds will be breezy
to windy today, with wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30
to 35 mph possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect along all
coastal zones of east central Florida through 8 PM, where the
windiest conditions are forecast today. Beyond 8 PM, it remains to
be seen whether east central Florida will continue to hit
advisory criteria, with guidance diverging a bit on how strong
wind gusts will be into the overnight hours. This will continue to
be closely monitored and extensions in time cannot be ruled out.

At the beaches, coastal conditions will remain hazardous due to
the persistent northeast flow and resulting building seas. Large,
breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet are forecast today along with a
high risk of rip currents. The rough surf combined with long
period swells will increase the risk for moderate to major beach
erosion along the coast, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect for
all of the east central Florida coast. Additionally, high
astronomical tides continue today, with guidance suggesting that
coastal flooding will be more significant today compared to
yesterday. This has resulted in an upgrade to a Coastal Flood
Warning starting today for the entire coast, with the greatest
risk of flooding anticipated during times of high tide (5-7
AM/PM). Overall, conditions along the east central Florida coast
will be hazardous and heading to the beaches and out into the
ocean is strongly discouraged.

Monday-Tuesday...Little change is anticipated relative to the
overall synoptic pattern driving the prolonged dangerous beach and
marine conditions across east central Florida. The pressure
gradient will remain tight across the peninsula as the area stays
wedged between strong surface high pressure north of the state and
a stalled boundary draped across the Bahamas. Northeast winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph are forecast, with the
strongest values forecast along the coast. These breezy and gusty
northeast winds will maintain high wave heights, which will result
in a number of beach hazards along the east central Florida
coast. The rough, pounding surf with breaking waves of 7 to 12
feet combined with long period swells will support moderate to
major beach erosion and a high risk of rip currents. The High Surf
Advisory and the Rip Current Statement have been extended through
Tuesday. Additionally, these hazardous, wind-driven surf
conditions coincide with a period of high astronomical tides,
which will further exacerbate coastal conditions and increase the
potential of coastal flooding. Minor to moderate coastal flooding
along the east central Florida coast is forecast, and the Coastal
Flood Warning now continues through Tuesday. The greatest threat
will be during times of high tide, which are approximately between
5-7 AM/PM. Heading to the beach will be hazardous over the next
several days, and entering the ocean is not advised.

The persistent northeast flow will advect moisture towards the
Florida peninsula through early this week, supporting continued
development of onshore-moving showers. The highest rain chances
are forecast along the coast primarily east of I-95 on Monday and
then primarily from the Cape southward along the coast on Tuesday.
Due to the repeated rounds of showers and the potential for
training band development with activity, WPC maintains portions of
the Treasure Coast in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall
on Monday and Tuesday. Storm chances remain low on Monday (10%),
but increase slightly into Tuesday (20-30%). Any storms that do
manage to develop are anticipated to remain isolated, with
lightning strikes and gusty winds potential hazards. Temperatures
are forecast to remain seasonable in the afternoon with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the
upper 60s across the interior north of the I-4 corridor and range
in the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Wednesday-Saturday...The broad low pressure along the stalled
boundary draped across the Bahamas is forecast to meander across
the western Atlantic, though there continues to be some
disagreement on the placement and evolution of the low through the
extended period. Trends have shifted more towards a solution that
has the boundary eventually washing out as the low weakens,
leaving behind a plume of moisture across the Florida peninsula.
The high to the north of Florida looks to gradually shift eastward
and eventually offshore, with another surface high from the Great
Lakes region shifting eastward to replace it. Overall, little
change is anticipated relative to the broad pattern across east
central Florida, with persistent breezy northeast flow maintaining
hazardous beach and boating conditions. Onshore-moving showers
are forecast to persist mid to late week, with the highest rain
chances remaining focused along the coast. A low chance for storm
development will also continue across the local waters and
primarily along the coast. Temperatures are forecast to remain
seasonable and near-normal values for this time of year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dangerous boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic
waters as the area remains wedged between strengthening high
pressure to the north and a stalled boundary to the south.
Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots and gusts up to 35 knots are
anticipated to continue through early this week, with Gale
Warnings expanding to include all legs of the local waters
beginning at 8 AM today. These will continue through at least
Monday across all legs and will then focus across the Gulf Stream
waters into Tuesday. Additional extensions in time may be needed.
With these windy and gusty conditions across the waters, seas are
forecast to continue building locally, ranging between 7 to 15
feet through early this week. Conditions across the local waters
will be slow to improve, with hazardous to dangerous conditions
anticipated to persist through much of the week.

Rain chances are forecast to remain medium to high (40-70%)
through the forecast period across the local waters due to the
persistent northeast winds and some moist air present. Isolated
storm development cannot be ruled out with activity at times,
though chances remain low (20-40%).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

NNE/NE winds across the interior 10-12 kts with gusts up to 18-20
kts thru early morning. Along the coast it will remain breezy to
windy, with wind speeds either remaining or increasing to around 15-
20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts (potentially up to 35 kts at times,
esp in onshore-moving squalls). Winds increase areawide out of the
NE to 18-22 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts; up to 35 kts at times along
the coast and possibly higher with onshore-moving showers on Sun.
Gusty SCT-NMRS onshore-moving showers are forecast through Sun, with
a slight chance for lightning storms. Have kept VCSH for much of the
forecast period, with some tempo MVFR conditions at times as
activity pushes onto the coast and further inland as confidence
allows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  69  80  70 /  60  70  50  10
MCO  82  70  82  70 /  30  30  30   0
MLB  82  70  82  71 /  60  40  20  20
VRB  83  70  83  71 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  81  66  81  66 /  30  30  20   0
SFB  82  69  82  69 /  50  40  30   0
ORL  83  70  82  70 /  40  30  30   0
FPR  82  70  83  71 /  70  50  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion