Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

281
FXUS62 KMLB 112109
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
409 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 408 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated lightning storms are
  forecast through 6PM as a cold front continues to move southeast
  over east central Florida. There is a 5 percent chance for
  isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, mainly north and west
  of St. Lucie county.

- Temperatures fall into the 40s Thursday morning behind the
  front. A few normally colder locations with temperatures in the
  mid to upper 30s are forecast across the far north, in addition
  to patchy to areas of frost.

- Numerous marine and coastal hazards are forecast late week and
  into the weekend including a High Risk of rip currents, High
  Surf with large breaking waves, and Minor Coastal Erosion
  during periods of high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Currently-Thursday... Local radar imagery shows scattered to
numerous showers over east central Florida from southern Brevard
county and to the south. Analysis charts show a cold front over
the eastern CONUS and east central Florida which extends from low
pressure (~998mb) over the northeastern CONUS. Temperatures are
currently in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees north of I-4 with
the low 70s to mid 80s to the south. Dew points are in the low to
mid 60s north of I-4 with the mid 60s to mid 70s to the south.
Winds are breezy to windy from the west- southwest at 15-20mph
with gusts to 30-35mph.


Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs ~ 50-67%) and isolated lightning
storms are forecast through this afternoon and evening as the cold
front continues to move southeast over east central Florida.
Showers and lightning storms are forecast to the south of I-4 this
afternoon and into this evening before rain and lightning chances
end over the Treasure Coast into this evening (mainly now until
5PM). A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists over east central
Florida to the north and west of St. Lucie county. Isolated
stronger storms that develop will have the potential to produce
occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 40-50mph. Breezy
to windy west-southwest winds at 15-20mph with gusts to 30-35mph
are forecast to veer north behind the front this evening.

Cold temperatures (~ 10-15 degrees below normal) are expected
behind the cold front Thursday morning with lows in the mid 30s to
low 40s along and north of I-4 with the low 40s to near 50
degrees to the south. North winds will combine with cold
temperatures and result in minimum Wind Chill values in the 30s
north of the Treasure Coast and as low as the low to mid 40s over
the Treasure Coast. Mostly dry weather is forecast Thursday as
high pressure (~ 1032mb) builds over the Deep South. Breezy north
winds at 10-20mph and gusts to 25-30mph are forecast. Below normal
(~ 5-10 degrees) afternoon high temperatures in the low 60s to
low 70s are forecast


Friday-Saturday... Expansive high pressure (~ 1040mb) is expected
to build to the north of east central Florida over the eastern
CONUS on Friday and over northeastern CONUS on Saturday. Onshore
flow will develop on Friday with breezy east-northeast winds at
10-20mph with gusts up to 25-30mph forecast Friday and Saturday.
Isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers (PoPs ~
20-30%) are forecast Friday afternoon and into Saturday with
PWATs between 0.80-1.00" on Friday, as well as PWATs between
1.00-1.40" on Saturday. Partly cloudy to partly sunny skies are
forecast with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s Friday and the
mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
upper 60s are forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday-Tuesday... East to northeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts
to 20-25mph are forecast into each afternoon. High pressure is
forecast to gradually shift east over northeastern CONUS on
Sunday and over the western Atlantic on Monday before a shortwave
trough is forecast to move east-southeast over the eastern CONUS
on Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers (PoPs ~
20-30%) are forecast into each afternoon Sunday and Monday with
mostly dry weather forecast on Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the mid
70s to low 80s are forecast with low temperatures in the mid 50s
to upper 60s

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Currently-Thursday... Hazardous boating conditions are expected as
a cold front continues to move southeast over the local Atlantic
waters through this evening. Small Craft Advisories
will be in effect for all of the east central Florida Atlantic
waters this evening and into Thursday. West-southwest winds at
20-28kts are forecast to veer north into tonight before weakening
into the afternoon at around 15-20kts. Seas are forecast to build
to 5-7ft nearshore and to 8-10ft over the Gulf Stream into
Thursday morning.

Friday-Sunday...  Hazardous boating conditions are expected to
continue Friday and into the weekend. Isolated onshore moving showers
(PoPS ~ 20%) are forecast into Friday afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers (PoPs ~20-50%) on Saturday and Sunday.
East-northeast winds at around 20-25kts with gusts up to 34kts are
forecast to decrease into Sunday at around 15-20kts. Seas are
forecast to build to 5-8 ft on Friday with seas to 9-10 ft over
the Gulf Stream into Saturday and increase to 6-9ft nearshore and
to 10-12ft offshore (20-60nm), as well as over the Gulf Stream.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1149 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Developing MVFR CIGs across the terminals from west to east and
north to south. The approach of a strong cold front will bring  a
narrow line of SHRA/TSRA that is forecast to produce brief
MVFR/IFR conditions. Timing is on track for this activity to reach
LEE around 17z, followed by DAB/SFB/MCO/ISM around 18z,
continuing ESE to TIX and points south after 19z-21z. TEMPOs were
included for most sites, excluding SUA.

Gusty winds will precede the front and stay elevated at the coast
into Thu. morning. SSW winds 15-20 kt with gusts around 25-30 kt
develop after 14z, veering quickly WNW behind the SHRA/TSRA
activity. Conditions improve from NW to SE Wed. evening with a
return to VFR for most sites after 00z Thu. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty Thu with winds veering N/NE by 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Thursday... Sensitive RH values are forecast on Thursday over Lake
and inland Volusia counties with minimum RH values in the mid 30s
to low 40s forecast. Breezy north winds at around 10-20mph and
gusts to 25-30mph are forecast over east central Florida with dry
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  40  62  49  71 /   0   0   0  20
MCO  44  64  49  73 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  44  67  57  74 /   0   0   0  20
VRB  47  69  58  75 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  39  62  45  73 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  42  62  48  72 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  43  64  48  73 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  47  69  58  74 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ550-552-570-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ555.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion