Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

495
FXUS62 KMLB 101121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at
  Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the
  ocean.

- The next chance (20-40%) of showers and storms arrives on
  Wednesday afternoon. There is a low, conditional threat for a
  couple of strong storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin-
  sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected.

- We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive
  in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind
  chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning
  from Greater Orlando northward.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last
  week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river
  forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The weather pattern near Florida has changed little over the last
24 hours. A weak subtropical jet extends from Texas to Georgia,
south of a quasi-zonal polar jet passing over the Northern U.S. The
air is still quite dry, especially from 850-700 mb. Slightly higher
moisture resides near and offshore of Southwest Florida.

A ripple of energy in the subtropical jet is still expected to eject
from Texas into the Southeast later today through Wednesday. The
jet stream configuration will become slightly more favorable for
synoptic-scale lift during this period. Some of the moisture just
southwest of the area is forecast to move northward over the next
48 hours, but guidance still disagrees on overall moisture return
and available instability on Wednesday.

The ingredients remain in place for the well-advertised pattern
change late this week. As blocking develops over the northern
latitudes of N America, significant amplification of the longwave
pattern will begin late on Wednesday. Eventually, a deep trough will
gather over the Eastern U.S. by Thursday. A vigorous shortwave
digging through the developing trough will promote surface
cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley. As the low moves toward the
Delmarva Peninsula, it is expected to force a strong cold front
toward Florida. The front should arrive late Thursday and pass
the entire district by Friday morning.

Ensembles are in excellent agreement with pattern evolution through
at least Saturday, when PWAT (moisture) values fall to 30-50% of
normal and 925 mb temperatures dip to +6 to +10 deg C. This will
represent the most significant continental air mass intrusion into
the Florida Peninsula so far this autumn.

Guidance slowly moves the large trough eastward this weekend,
with the lowest 500 mb heights moving off the Northeast U.S. coast
by late Sunday. Surface high pressure will follow in its wake,
its center remaining well north of Florida. Once the high moves
east of our longitude, onshore flow should redevelop on Sunday,
allowing temperature moderation to begin.

Guidance quickly breaks down the high-latitude block next week,
allowing the flow to become progressive across the U.S. Therefore,
the upcoming cooldown this weekend is not expected to last long, and
unsettled weather also may not wait too long to return. For example,
just yesterday the ECMWF-AIFS ensemble was nearly alone with its
indication of another shortwave within the subtropical jet reaching
the northern Gulf in about a week. Cluster analysis now reveals
that nearly half of physics-based members support this solution.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Status-quo weather is favored for most of us on this Tuesday. Aside
from some patchy morning fog, we expect partly sunny and warm
weather today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Beaches will still
be a concern, as the lingering swell continues to produce a high
risk of numerous rip currents. Please stay out of the ocean.

With subtle moisture return expected over South Florida today,
we have introduced a small (20%) chance of showers near Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon and evening. Most areas will stay dry
through tonight, however.

Wednesday - Thursday night...

We`ll be keeping an eye on a disturbance approaching from the Gulf
on Wednesday. Moisture will be increasing a bit, but the extent is
in question, with significant disagreement in the guidance. This
adds up to a 20-40% chance of afternoon and early evening showers
and storms, with the highest coverage along the coast south of Cape
Canaveral. A few models, led by the ECMWF, have ample instability
in place. Others, such as the HRRR, are more stable. With moderate
effective shear profiles, there is a conditional chance of a strong
storm Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds of 45-50 mph and coin-sized
hail would be the primary hazards.

On Thursday, breezy westerly winds are forecast to develop, with
drier air mixing to the surface in the afternoon. Only isolated
shower chances persist through Thursday night, and mostly over our
southern communities. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night look
rather light, with only a 1-in-10 chance of exceeding a half inch
along the coast from Melbourne southward.

The strong cold front will not arrive until Thursday night. Despite
more cloud cover, highs on Wednesday should reach the low to mid
80s with upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday.

Friday - Weekend...

With the cold front quickly marching off to our south, winds
turn northwesterly on Friday and Saturday and stay breezy from
time to time. This will usher cooler and drier air into the area,
with the coolest air arriving early Saturday.

Under clearing skies, highs on Friday should range from the upper
60s to low 70s, but dip on Saturday into the mid to upper 60s. Lows
Friday and Saturday nights will be chilly, in the mid/upper 40s
except low 50s along the coast from Cape Canaveral and points
southward. Our coldest wind chills, near and northwest of I-4,
should reach the 40-45 degree range. There is still a 15-20%
chance for wind chills to reach the upper 30s near and north of
Greater Orlando, especially on Saturday morning.

As winds turn onshore, Sunday looks a little milder by afternoon
(low/mid 70s).

Early Next Week...

As brisk onshore flow becomes established and deepens, moisture
should return. Combined with a potential disturbance approaching
from the west, 20-40% shower chances reenter the picture by Monday
or Tuesday. It`s too early to determine whether heavy rainfall
may occur. Near-normal temperatures are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

High pressure should drift across the local area over the
next couple of days, with lighter winds and improved boating
conditions. An upper-air disturbance should spark a few showers
and storms on Wednesday, with isolated strong and gusty storms
possible. Behind a strong cold front late Thursday, winds increase,
and seas build on Friday. Hazardous boating conditions return from
Friday through Saturday, especially offshore.

Light/variable winds today, becoming onshore up to 10 kt along
the coast by afternoon. Winds turn SSW up to 10 kt on Wednesday,
then W 10-15 kt on Thursday. Fresh northwest winds develop Thu
night into Friday, 15-25 kt early Friday morning. Another surge of
fresh NW winds may occur Friday night and early Saturday. Seas 3-5
ft today, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wed/Thu. Seas on Fri/Sat build
to 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 609 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Continued mainly VFR. Will continue to monitor for patchy fog
formation during the early morning, but confidence is low. A weak
pgrad remains in place, thus light/variable winds continue with
transition onshore (5-10 kts) at the coast in the afternoon with
sea breeze development. A few showers may be possible later today
surrounding Lake Okee, but confidence not there yet for any of
this activity surviving near the Treasure Coast terminals. Gradual
moistening late today and tonight with an increase in cloud-cover
later in the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fire weather thresholds should remain out of reach through
Friday. By Saturday, much drier air arrives over Central Florida. RH
minima are forecast to fall to 35-40% over the interior from Osceola
County northward, with northwest winds around 10 mph. Moisture
slowly returns beginning Sunday into next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over
the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1)
is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast
to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five
days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast
Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online
at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy
rain is not forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized rainfall
amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure Coasts. The next
significant rain chance should then hold off until early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  65  82  62 /   0   0  20   0
MCO  83  69  83  65 /   0  10  20  10
MLB  82  69  83  65 /   0  10  30  20
VRB  83  69  85  66 /  10  10  40  20
LEE  83  67  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  84  68  83  63 /   0   0  20   0
ORL  83  69  83  65 /   0  10  20  10
FPR  82  68  84  65 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion