National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
645 FXUS62 KMLB 071515 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1115 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Key Messages... - Hurricane Watches have been issued for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola and Okeechobee counties - Hurricane Milton has strengthened into a Major Category 4 Hurricane this morning - Preparations in advance of Milton should be ongoing and completed by the end of day Tuesday Milton has rapidly intensified this morning into a Major Cat 4 Hurricane across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with sustained winds of 155 mph and is forecast to reach Cat 5 strength later today. Main forecast update this morning is the issuance of Hurricane Watches for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola and Okeechobee counties. Additional expansions in watches eastward will then be possible later today, as long as forecast timing of Milton doesn`t change significantly. Preparations should be ongoing today and completed by end of day Tuesday in advance of Milton as conditions will only deteriorate as Milton nears into Wednesday. More information on the impacts expected from Milton across east central Florida can be found in our Hurricane Local Statement. For today, a frontal boundary will linger across the area, and is forecast to settle near the Lake Okeechobee region later today. A weak area of low pressure will develop off the southeast coast of FL along this boundary and shifts eastward into tonight. Deep moisture, breezy low level onshore flow and the presence of the weak front will keep waves of light to moderate rainfall across the area, with localized banding of heavier showers and isolated storms possible, mainly along the coastal counties. It will be with this activity that concerns for heavy rainfall and localized flooding will occur today, as a quick 2-4 inches, with spots of higher amounts up to 5-6 inches will be possible. A Flood Watch continues across the area today. This threat for locally heavy to excessive rainfall should concentrate across the southern half of the coast later today into tonight, especially along the southern Treasure Coast as the weak low takes shape offshore the southeast FL coast. In fact, WPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall along portions of the Treasure Coast for this increased potential for localized flash flooding. Persistent rainfall and any flooding of roadways, urban, low- lying and poor drainage areas from heavier downpours will only hamper ongoing preparations ahead of the approach of Milton. Cloudy and rainy conditions will keep highs below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 ...Hurricane Milton in the southern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move eastward and threaten the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Residents and visitors should be preparing for hurricane conditions across East Central Florida... ...A Flood Watch remains in effect through early Thursday. Bands of heavy rain both ahead of and with Milton will be capable of causing flooding through midweek... ...As Milton moves across the state, the risk for strong to damaging winds and a few tornadoes increases on Wednesday. Battering surf and some coastal flooding may begin along portions of our coast by late Wednesday night... Current-Tuesday...KMLB 88D continues to show light to moderate rainfall across ECFL early this morning, with some heavier activity across the adjacent coastal waters. Temperatures and dewpoints were generally in the L-M70s with conditions humid. Skies were cloudy with a light onshore flow. A weak quasi-stationary surface trough was across south-central FL and extended further west into the eastern Gulf. Weak east-west oriented mid-level troughing lies across the Deep South and north FL with shortwave impulses embedded within the mostly zonal flow. Hurricane Milton continues to gain strength and is forecast to become a major hurricane later today. This cyclone will also continue an eastward movement as it gains both strength and speed. This system will move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern GoMex today. ENE/NE surface winds will approach 10 mph today, except 10-15 mph along the Space and Treasure coasts. PWAT values remain juicy and will hover between 2.25-2.50 inches. The aforementioned surface boundary, deep moisture, and energy aloft will keep high PoPs (70- 90pct) across the coverage warning area. A Flood Watch remains in effect and locally heavy rainfall due to slow/erratic cell movement and repeated rounds is forecast. This may be best realized southward across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County in closer proximity to the surface front, as well as for additional weak waves of low pressure forecast to ride along this boundary. Generally bands of locally heavy rainfall (showery precip) but cannot rule out an ISOLD lightning storm as well today. If you are in a flood-prone area or are traveling, keep up to date with the forecast and listen for any Flood Advisories or Warnings that may be issued. We may see a bit of a lull in the heavy rain on Tuesday, but scattered to numerous showers are still in the forecast. Clouds and precip expected to again moderate max temps with U70s to around 80F forecast for most and perhaps a few L80s along the coast or where the sun can briefly peak through the clouds. Perhaps a few M80s for highs on Tue. Overnight mins mainly in the L70s, except M70s along the Space and Treasure coasts. Hazardous beach/surf conditions will persist due to an easterly long period swell from distant hurricane Kirk. Expect numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents and rough surf to continue! Entering the water is strongly discouraged! Wed-Thu...Regardless of track/timing of Milton, hurricane preparations should already be complete by this time. Impacts will spread well beyond Milton`s center. Landfall is expected late in the day or evening on Wed along the west-central FL coast. It remains forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall. Periods of heavy rainfall within tropical rainbands are expected in advance and associated with Milton`s passage. The Flood Watch remains in effect thru Wed night to account for this. Soil saturation is of concern and will enhance flooding potential, especially for prone areas or locations that receive continual heavy bands of precip over multiple days. Through the event, 5 to 10 inches of rainfall is forecast near and north of Orlando to Melbourne, with 3 to 6 inches to the south. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially just north of the track of Milton. Rain intensity will quickly diminish through the day on Thu as Milton moves off of the east FL coast and departs the area. Most likely arrival time for Tropical Storm Force winds are Wed morning (interior) or early afternoon (east coast). Residents and visitors across east central FL are urged to prepare for strong tropical storm and hurricane-force wind gusts. Should Milton`s center cross our coverage warning area, a narrow corridor near the storm`s center may experience sustained hurricane-force winds. Strong tropical storm-force winds may persist for a longer period, esp along the coast - possibly most notable north of Cape Canaveral as Milton moves offshore. An isolated tornado threat will exist on Wed as associated rainbands push across the area. With latest trends in track/timing of Milton, we expect this system to push off of the coast and into the local Atlc late Wed overnight or early Thu morning. As Milton departs, NERLY winds are projected to increase along the coast. There is a strong risk of coastal flooding and erosion of beaches/dunes especially north of the track of Milton. At this time, this concern is focused mainly north of Cape Canaveral including Volusia County. However, battering surf is likely up and down our coast as Milton moves offshore! Fri-Sun...Milton will become extratropical in the Atlc as it pushes further north/east away from the peninsula. Some cooler and drier air is forecast to push down the peninsula during this period. Diminishing winds after a breezy day on Fri and lower rain chances will result. We may still see isolated shower activity and perhaps an isolated lightning storm as well. Surface high pressure will build into the Deep South and southeast U.S. on a weakening trend. Highs for Fri, U70s to around 80F across the I-4 corridor and L80s southward. On Sat/Sun temps begin to creep back toward the L80s (perhaps a few M80s). L-M80s for maxes on Sun. Lows Sat-Sun morning`s will be cooler and in the M-U60s across the interior and L70s at the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Variable MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast thru much of the TAF as SHRA move onshore from VRB northward. Additional SHRA development is expected thru the day with ENE winds 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt, especially at coastal terminals. A slackening of shower activity is modeled after 00z-03z tonight, though overall trends will need to be monitored this afternoon. Tapered TAFs to VCSH or even dry conditions Tue. morning before additional activity arrives beyond this TAF period. ENE winds will decrease tonight, 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Have run current Small Craft Advisory out through early Tuesday evening, though realize tropical products will likely be issued later today which will wipe these out. Onshore winds 12-18 kts thru Tue night with seas building 5-7 ft and occasionally up to 8 ft (Gulf Stream) thru this time as well. Small craft should also continue to Exercise Caution near inlets during the outgoing tide early this morning and again later this afternoon and early evening. This is due to persistent easterly long period swells. Numerous to widespread showers and isolated lightning storms will remain forecast into mid-week. Conditions will ramp up from hazardous to very hazardous during the day on Wed with the approach of TC Milton. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible by Wed night as Milton moves across the central peninsula and eventually into the Atlantic. Strong northerly-component winds are forecast to maintain dangerously high seas through at least Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 74 84 75 / 80 40 60 60 MCO 78 73 83 74 / 80 40 60 60 MLB 81 74 84 75 / 90 60 60 70 VRB 81 74 85 75 / 90 70 60 60 LEE 79 73 84 74 / 70 30 40 50 SFB 79 73 83 74 / 80 30 60 60 ORL 79 74 84 75 / 80 40 60 60 FPR 81 74 84 75 / 90 70 60 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058- 141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Hurricane Watch for FLZ044>046-053-058-144. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Schaper
National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida
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Hi ≈83°F | Lo ≈78°F | Hi ≈86°F | Lo ≈80°F | Hi ≈87°F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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