Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

645
FXUS62 KMLB 071515
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1115 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Key Messages...

- Hurricane Watches have been issued for Lake, Seminole, Orange,
  Osceola and Okeechobee counties

- Hurricane Milton has strengthened into a Major Category 4
  Hurricane this morning

- Preparations in advance of Milton should be ongoing and
  completed by the end of day Tuesday

Milton has rapidly intensified this morning into a Major Cat 4
Hurricane across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with sustained winds
of 155 mph and is forecast to reach Cat 5 strength later today. Main
forecast update this morning is the issuance of Hurricane Watches
for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola and Okeechobee counties.
Additional expansions in watches eastward will then be possible
later today, as long as forecast timing of Milton doesn`t change
significantly. Preparations should be ongoing today and completed by
end of day Tuesday in advance of Milton as conditions will only
deteriorate as Milton nears into Wednesday. More information on
the impacts expected from Milton across east central Florida can
be found in our Hurricane Local Statement.

For today, a frontal boundary will linger across the area, and is
forecast to settle near the Lake Okeechobee region later today. A
weak area of low pressure will develop off the southeast coast of FL
along this boundary and shifts eastward into tonight. Deep moisture,
breezy low level onshore flow and the presence of the weak front
will keep waves of light to moderate rainfall across the area, with
localized banding of heavier showers and isolated storms possible,
mainly along the coastal counties. It will be with this activity
that concerns for heavy rainfall and localized flooding will occur
today, as a quick 2-4 inches, with spots of higher amounts up to 5-6
inches will be possible. A Flood Watch continues across the area
today. This threat for locally heavy to excessive rainfall should
concentrate across the southern half of the coast later today into
tonight, especially along the southern Treasure Coast as the weak
low takes shape offshore the southeast FL coast. In fact, WPC has
upgraded to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall along portions of
the Treasure Coast for this increased potential for localized flash
flooding.

Persistent rainfall and any flooding of roadways, urban, low-
lying and poor drainage areas from heavier downpours will only
hamper ongoing preparations ahead of the approach of Milton. Cloudy
and rainy conditions will keep highs below normal in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...Hurricane Milton in the southern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
move eastward and threaten the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.
Residents and visitors should be preparing for hurricane
conditions across East Central Florida...

...A Flood Watch remains in effect through early Thursday. Bands of
heavy rain both ahead of and with Milton will be capable of causing
flooding through midweek...

...As Milton moves across the state, the risk for strong to damaging
winds and a few tornadoes increases on Wednesday. Battering surf and
some coastal flooding may begin along portions of our coast by late
Wednesday night...

Current-Tuesday...KMLB 88D continues to show light to moderate
rainfall across ECFL early this morning, with some heavier activity
across the adjacent coastal waters. Temperatures and dewpoints were
generally in the L-M70s with conditions humid. Skies were cloudy
with a light onshore flow. A weak quasi-stationary surface trough
was across south-central FL and extended further west into the
eastern Gulf. Weak east-west oriented mid-level troughing lies
across the Deep South and north FL with shortwave impulses embedded
within the mostly zonal flow. Hurricane Milton continues to gain
strength and is forecast to become a major hurricane later today.
This cyclone will also continue an eastward movement as it gains
both strength and speed. This system will move just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern GoMex today.

ENE/NE surface winds will approach 10 mph today, except 10-15 mph
along the Space and Treasure coasts. PWAT values remain juicy and
will hover between 2.25-2.50 inches. The aforementioned surface
boundary, deep moisture, and energy aloft will keep high PoPs (70-
90pct) across the coverage warning area. A Flood Watch remains in
effect and locally heavy rainfall due to slow/erratic cell
movement and repeated rounds is forecast. This may be best
realized southward across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County
in closer proximity to the surface front, as well as for
additional weak waves of low pressure forecast to ride along this
boundary. Generally bands of locally heavy rainfall (showery
precip) but cannot rule out an ISOLD lightning storm as well today.

If you are in a flood-prone area or are traveling, keep up to date
with the forecast and listen for any Flood Advisories or Warnings
that may be issued. We may see a bit of a lull in the heavy rain on
Tuesday, but scattered to numerous showers are still in the forecast.

Clouds and precip expected to again moderate max temps with U70s to
around 80F forecast for most and perhaps a few L80s along the coast
or where the sun can briefly peak through the clouds. Perhaps a few
M80s for highs on Tue. Overnight mins mainly in the L70s, except
M70s along the Space and Treasure coasts.

Hazardous beach/surf conditions will persist due to an easterly long
period swell from distant hurricane Kirk. Expect numerous, strong,
life-threatening rip currents and rough surf to continue! Entering
the water is strongly discouraged!

Wed-Thu...Regardless of track/timing of Milton, hurricane
preparations should already be complete by this time. Impacts will
spread well beyond Milton`s center. Landfall is expected late in the
day or evening on Wed along the west-central FL coast. It remains
forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Periods of heavy rainfall within tropical rainbands are expected
in advance and associated with Milton`s passage. The Flood Watch
remains in effect thru Wed night to account for this. Soil
saturation is of concern and will enhance flooding potential,
especially for prone areas or locations that receive continual
heavy bands of precip over multiple days.

Through the event, 5 to 10 inches of rainfall is forecast near and
north of Orlando to Melbourne, with 3 to 6 inches to the south.
Locally higher amounts are possible, especially just north of the
track of Milton. Rain intensity will quickly diminish through the
day on Thu as Milton moves off of the east FL coast and departs the
area. Most likely arrival time for Tropical Storm Force winds are
Wed morning (interior) or early afternoon (east coast). Residents
and visitors across east central FL are urged to prepare for
strong tropical storm and hurricane-force wind gusts. Should
Milton`s center cross our coverage warning area, a narrow corridor
near the storm`s center may experience sustained hurricane-force
winds. Strong tropical storm-force winds may persist for a longer
period, esp along the coast - possibly most notable north of Cape
Canaveral as Milton moves offshore. An isolated tornado threat
will exist on Wed as associated rainbands push across the area.

With latest trends in track/timing of Milton, we expect this system
to push off of the coast and into the local Atlc late Wed overnight
or early Thu morning. As Milton departs, NERLY winds are projected
to increase along the coast. There is a strong risk of coastal
flooding and erosion of beaches/dunes especially north of the track
of Milton. At this time, this concern is focused mainly north of
Cape Canaveral including Volusia County. However, battering surf is
likely up and down our coast as Milton moves offshore!

Fri-Sun...Milton will become extratropical in the Atlc as it
pushes further north/east away from the peninsula. Some cooler
and drier air is forecast to push down the peninsula during this
period. Diminishing winds after a breezy day on Fri and lower rain
chances will result. We may still see isolated shower activity
and perhaps an isolated lightning storm as well. Surface high
pressure will build into the Deep South and southeast U.S. on a
weakening trend. Highs for Fri, U70s to around 80F across the I-4
corridor and L80s southward. On Sat/Sun temps begin to creep back
toward the L80s (perhaps a few M80s). L-M80s for maxes on Sun.
Lows Sat-Sun morning`s will be cooler and in the M-U60s across
the interior and L70s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Variable MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast thru much of the TAF as
SHRA move onshore from VRB northward. Additional SHRA development
is expected thru the day with ENE winds 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt,
especially at coastal terminals. A slackening of shower activity
is modeled after 00z-03z tonight, though overall trends will need
to be monitored this afternoon. Tapered TAFs to VCSH or even dry
conditions Tue. morning before additional activity arrives beyond
this TAF period. ENE winds will decrease tonight, 5-10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Have run current Small Craft Advisory out through early Tuesday
evening, though realize tropical products will likely be issued
later today which will wipe these out. Onshore winds 12-18 kts
thru Tue night with seas building 5-7 ft and occasionally up to 8
ft (Gulf Stream) thru this time as well. Small craft should also
continue to Exercise Caution near inlets during the outgoing tide
early this morning and again later this afternoon and early
evening. This is due to persistent easterly long period swells.
Numerous to widespread showers and isolated lightning storms will
remain forecast into mid-week.

Conditions will ramp up from hazardous to very hazardous during
the day on Wed with the approach of TC Milton. Tropical storm
conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible by
Wed night as Milton moves across the central peninsula and
eventually into the Atlantic. Strong northerly-component winds
are forecast to maintain dangerously high seas through at least
Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  74  84  75 /  80  40  60  60
MCO  78  73  83  74 /  80  40  60  60
MLB  81  74  84  75 /  90  60  60  70
VRB  81  74  85  75 /  90  70  60  60
LEE  79  73  84  74 /  70  30  40  50
SFB  79  73  83  74 /  80  30  60  60
ORL  79  74  84  75 /  80  40  60  60
FPR  81  74  84  75 /  90  70  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Hurricane Watch for FLZ044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion