Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

570
FXUS62 KMLB 100657
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
257 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible through this
  weekend, as wet pattern continues, with slow-moving showers and
  storms. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts to near 50
  mph.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce peak afternoon heat
  indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate Risk for rip currents today at east central
  Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and
  never swim alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Strong mid/upper level ridging over the Carolinas
moves eastward today. Meanwhile the Atlantic ridge axis begins to
organize off of the Florida east coast. Prior to sunrise, a few
showers are present over the local Atlantic waters, moving NE
towards the coast. Most of this activity is weakening as it
approaches the more stable land mass of the peninsula. However, a
few showers will remain possible along the coast into the early
morning hours.

Light onshore flow this morning becomes SE this afternoon as the
sea breeze develops, but remains under 10 mph. Deep moisture, with
PWATs 2.2-2.3"+, lingers over the peninsula today, with 50-60%
coverage of showers and storms forecast once again. Convection is
forecast to begin just inland from the coast by around 2 PM, then
push into the interior through the afternoon, with a collision
near the Orlando metro near to just after rush hour. Slightly
lower PoPs for the coast (40-50%), with slow and erratic
propagation persisting over the interior into the evening hours. A
few strong storms cannot be ruled out, mainly along the
collision, with DCAPE near 800 J/kg. However, the main threat
looks to be locally heavy rainfall due to slow moving storms,
which could lead to minor flooding concerns. Showers and storms
look to slowly diminish through the evening, with drier conditions
inland by midnight. A few showers or a storm will remain possible
along the Treasure Coast overnight.

High temperatures in the lower to mid-90s and high humidity will
lead to heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria at 102-107
degrees. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if
spending time outside in the heat of the day. Overnight lows are
forecast to remain in the 70s.

Friday-Sunday...The Atlantic ridge strengthens Friday and into
the weekend, as mid to upper level ridging moves off of the
eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the surface ridge axis establishes
itself over the central Florida peninsula. Prevailing light
southerly flow becomes SSE in the afternoons as the sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Despite a slightly stronger east coast
breeze, expect a collision over the interior each afternoon, with
deep PWATs 2-2.3" supporting PoPs 60-70%. The mid- level ridge
axis is forecast to be slightly farther south, producing light
offshore steering flow. While a majority of storm propagation will
be erratic and slow, a drift towards the east coast through the
evening hours will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be
ruled out, with gusts near 50 mph, due to 500mb temperatures -7C
and perhaps a small intrusion of Saharan Air Layer in the mid-
levels. However, the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms and deep moisture. Any slow moving storm will
be capable of a quick 1-3" and could lead to minor flooding
concerns, especially in areas that see multiple rounds.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to linger into the
evening hours over the interior along the sea breeze collision.
Then, drier conditions develop for the overnight. But, onshore
flow will maintain the chance for a few showers or a storm
(20-30%) along the Treasure Coast overnight and into the morning.
Highs in the lower 90s and muggy conditions will continue to
produce heat indices 102-107 degrees, just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria, while lows remain in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Strong ridging develops through the column next
week near the Carolinas, weakening the Atlantic ridge. This will
lead to strengthening onshore flow, perhaps even ENE at times,
around 10-15 mph. This wind regime would favor a dominant east
coast sea breeze and, in theory, lower coverage for the local CWA.
However, models differ on the amount of available moisture present
and how that will affect coverage of any onshore-moving showers
and storms. Thus, the current forecast maintains near to slightly
above normal PoPs 40-70%. Onshore flow, breezy at times in the
afternoons, looks to keep high temperatures near normal in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. But, coastal areas are forecast to linger
in the upper 70s to near 80 overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions outside of convection will
persist through the weekend. The strengthening Atlantic ridge will
develop its axis over the local waters through the period,
supporting a dominant east coast sea breeze. Light S winds become
SE at 10 kts or less near the coast as the sea breeze develops in
the afternoons. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
remain a threat, even overnight. Late day, offshore-moving
convection will be an increasing threat into the weekend, as
steering flow aloft becomes offshore. A few storms will be capable
of wind gusts to near 40 kts. Seas 2-4 ft today become
1-2 ft by this weekend.

Strengthening high pressure near the Carolinas next week will
develop increasing onshore (E/NE) flow. Boating conditions may
deteriorate slightly at times, as winds increase to 10-15 kts.
Otherwise, showers and storms will remain a threat, with seas 2-3
ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VCSH mentioned at VRB/FPR/SUA this morning as occasional showers
brush the Treasure Coast. Light and variable winds early in the
day become established out of the southeast 4-8 kts mid to late
morning, further shifting east-southeast 7-10 kts with the sea
breeze. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast in
the afternoon and evening with VCTS at all terminals. TEMPO
MVFR/IFR reductions are included from ISM/MCO/TIX northward,
generally after 20Z, and PROB30s have been introduced from MLB
southward after 19Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  75 /  60  30  60  20
MCO  93  76  92  76 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  91  77  91  77 /  40  20  60  10
VRB  90  75  90  75 /  40  20  60  10
LEE  92  76  91  76 /  60  30  70  30
SFB  92  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20
ORL  92  77  91  77 /  60  30  60  20
FPR  90  75  90  75 /  50  20  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion