Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

556
FXUS62 KMLB 121120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and maybe a storm or two possible
  from the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee near a weak front settling
  into South Florida, and a very low chance for passing elevated
  showers to the north. Otherwise, drier conditions behind the
  front.

- A strong, dry cold front will pass through the area tonight,
  with the coldest temperatures yet Friday into Saturday. Early
  morning wind chills are forecast in the lower to mid-40s.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last
  week. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along
  the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at
  water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Today-Tonight...A substantial mid-upper level trough digs down
the Central and Eastern US, developing a surface low centered over
the Ohio Valley that will slide east towards the Mid-Atlantic. An
initial weak front associated with this system has already moved
into East Central Florida, bringing slightly lower temperatures
while starting to usher moisture away, but we`ll have to wait for
a reinforcing front tomorrow before the colder and drier weather
arrives. Lows this morning dip to the U50s-U60s. Afternoon highs
will be a few degrees lower than yesterday in the U70s-L80s
between the slightly cooler air and cloud cover. Westerly winds
around 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. Isolated to widely
scattered showers (chances 20-30%) and isolated lightning storms
(chances 20% or less) will be possible from late morning into the
afternoon from the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee where the higher
moisture lingers in proximity to the front. Middling instability
and fairly moist mid-levels aren`t particularly favorable for
strong storms, but mid-level temperatures are still cool, and
can`t rule out gusts to 40 mph and occasional lightning. To the
north, there is a very low (less than 20%) chance for transient
elevated showers.

Friday-Saturday...The upper-level trough strengthens over the
eastern half of the CONUS, developing a broad mid-level low
extending from the Great Lakes east to New England and down into
the Deep South. While the mid-upper level system is forecast to
stall for a few days, the deepening attendant surface low off the
New England coast is expected to pivot northeast as a second
stronger cold front bringing drier and cooler continental air
pushes into Florida early Friday, finally delivering actually cool
temperatures. Lows Friday morning only dip a little to the
M50s-U60s, but highs will be held to the 70s. Saturday morning
will be properly chilly, though there is a little uncertainty just
how cold it will get inland/north. Clearing skies and radiational
cooling is likely to be offset by mixing from 5-10 mph winds
continuing into the overnight, but those NW-NNW winds will also
keep advecting cooler air to Central Florida. In addition, if the
boundary layer decouples and winds go light, radiational cooling
will be enhanced and could cause temperatures to quickly drop. NBM
has a 6 or so degree spread between the 75th-25th percentiles,
and MOS guidance is close the 10th percentile. The official
forecast generally falls a degree or two below NBM mean, calling
for low temperatures in the M40s-L50s, lowest north of I-4, and
mildest along the Space and Treasure Coasts. Those 5-10 mph winds
will result in chills in the L-M40s for all but the Treasure
Coast, and there is a very low chance to briefly dip to the U30s
north of I-4. Daytime temperatures held to the 60s Saturday. Can`t
rule out a few light showers down south on Friday, but otherwise
dry conditions.

Sunday-Wednesday...The upper level pattern starts sliding east
again, pushing the mid-level low offshore and bringing a sharp
ridge from the Intermountain west over the eastern US, ushering
the surface high to the Atlantic seaboard. Locally, winds shift
back onshore (northeasterly to easterly), putting and end to the
briefly chilly weather, gradually warming temperatures back to
normal, and bringing back rain chances. Beyond that, confidence in
the forecast and potential impacts decreases considerably. There
is good agreement a lobe or two of vorticity from the western US
will undercut the ridge, sliding towards the Southeast and Gulf,
but models remain inconsistent with timing and location. Agreement
on what happens at the surface is even worse. The GFS had been
aggressively developing a surface low in the Gulf on the residual
frontal boundary, then tracking the feature toward Florida. This
scenario causes moisture to again surge across the area, bringing
back the threat for locally heavy rainfall, and potentially
dangerous beach and marine conditions. However, the ECM barely
develops a surface wave while keeping the highest moisture
generally south of the area, and the CMC falls in between these
two solutions, developing a weaker low but still delivering above
normal moisture a day or two later than the GFS timeline. The
respective ensemble suites all reflect the deterministic guidance,
so no help there, and the 00Z GFS came in with significantly
weaker mid-level energy and subsequently less development of the
surface low, only adding to the forecast uncertainty. Will need to
monitor the threat for locally heavy rainfall Monday into mid-
week, due to lingering effects of last week`s extreme rainfall,
but it is too early to determine if, when, or where heavy rainfall
may occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Generally favorable boating weather today, then conditions
deteriorate some, becoming periodically poor to hazardous through
the weekend. Westerly winds 5-15 kts shift northwest and increase
to 10-20 kts tonight behind another cold front pushing through the
waters, highest in the Volusia waters where winds may briefly tip
over 20 kts at times. This is very close to Small Craft Advisory
criteria, but the duration is brief enough seas are forecast to
remain at or below 6 ft, and only build above 5 ft in the Gulf
Stream (2-4 ft elsewhere). Therefore have opted to go with caution
statements for this forecast package and will monitor trends.
Northwest winds ease a bit Friday before picking up to 15-20
kts, possibly over 20 kts in the Volusia waters again Friday night
into Saturday morning, with seas building to 6ft in the Gulf
Stream. Winds ease to 5-15 kts from the northwest the rest of
Saturday into Sunday as high pressure behind the front slides
towards the eastern seaboard, and seas 3-6 ft persist into
Saturday before settling to 2-4 ft Sunday. A low pressure system
may develop in the Gulf and shift towards Florida early next
week, but there is a high amount of forecast uncertainty. There is
potential for hazardous boating conditions to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Light and variable winds early this morning pick up out of the
west around 10 knots this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast, though there does remain a low chance (20%) of showers
near SUA today through 00Z. Winds become light once more tonight
areawide before picking up out of the NNW tomorrow behind a
passing cold front. No VIS or CIG reductions anticipated through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Fire weather conditions remain above critical thresholds today,
then drier air filtering behind a second cold front is forecast
to reduce min RH values Friday to 35-45% from Brevard and Osceola
north, and 30-45% for most of the area Saturday, at or below 35%
along and north of I-4. Forecast wind speeds for Friday and
Saturday have come down slightly, generally to around 10 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph from the NNW-WNW Friday, and NNW-NNE
Saturday. Moisture is forecast to increase again Sunday into early
next week as winds become onshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 156 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over
the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1)
is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast
to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five
days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast
Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid
next week, but here is currently a high degree of uncertainty in
the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any
implications for ongoing flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  57  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  79  59  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  79  62  73  51 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  79  63  75  51 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  79  57  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  80  58  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  79  59  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  79  64  74  51 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion