National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
156 FXUS62 KMLB 101900 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Afternoon and evening storms are forecast, especially over across the southern counties; frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 45-55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall are possible. - Heat and humidity continue with peak heat index values 100-107F into the weekend; visitors and residents are encouraged to stay cool and well-hydrated. - Scattered rain and storms are forecast each afternoon and evening with coverage increasing late weekend into next week; strong storms and localized flooding possible && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Currently...The latest surface analysis finally has a closed isobar extending from the Atlantic high over Florida, placing the ridge axis across Central Florida. This has enhanced southerly to southwesterly flow enough to pin the east coast sea breeze near the coast south of the Cape until outflow finally pushed it inland, and holding it offshore to the north until just moments ago. Banding of moisture across central Florida has been complicating the prospect for showers and storms. In the plumes of higher moisture, notably extending from Osceola to Brevard counties, storms were able to kick off just after noon, while the areas of lower moisture have been slow to develop even just the cu-field. The XMR 15Z sounding continues to show some dry air in the mid- upper levels (despite a PWAT of 2.09") which has been the convection killer the last several days, but also copious instability from steep lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft, enabling even the early developing storms to produce frequent cloud to ground lightning and lofted small hail. Rest of Today-Tonight...There is some uncertainty in convective evolution the rest of the afternoon and evening given the varying moisture/favorable environment across the area, and chaotic boundary interactions once storms get going. Highest chances for showers and storms (up to around 50%) will be in the plumes of higher moisture, generally south of I-4, but boundaries that find pockets of low-level moisture in the drier areas will still be able to kick up deep convection (chances 20-40%). Stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts to 55 mph, frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and torrential downpours that could deliver a quick 1-3" of rainfall. While widespread severe storms are not forecast, one or two storms could become locally severe (60+ mph winds) where multiple boundaries come together. In addition, though most storms and heavy showers should be short lived due to non- existent shear, have seen some training of heavy rain on boundaries that line up with the higher moisture plumes and the light southwesterly steering flow, which could produce locally high rainfall amounts. Friday-Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface high pressure in the vicinity and ridging aloft will allow for a continuation of the current weather pattern. Heat and high humidity will combine each day to produce heat indices in the low to mid 100s, perhaps approaching 107 degrees in a few spots by Saturday and especially Sunday. Those with outdoor weekend plans should keep this in mind and stay protected from prolonged heat exposure by taking frequent cooling and hydration breaks. While the prospects of a Heat Advisory for Sunday are not likely at this time, these mid-100 degrees heat indices can be dangerous to heat-sensitive individuals. The rhythm of daytime surface heating and coastal sea breeze development will lead to growing shower and storm chances from midday into the afternoon hours, with interactions between the sea breeze and outflow boundaries maximizing rain chances (55-65 pct) over interior locations in the late afternoon and early evening, especially Friday and Saturday. As mid level ridging starts to break down Sunday, more supportive energy swings southward across the state. As a result, slightly higher storm chances and greater coverage is reflected in the forecast for Sunday. Most activity will come to an end after 9-10 PM each evening as temperatures settle into the mid 70s overnight. Monday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Increasingly unsettled weather is forecast into next week as a weakly stacked trough (sfc-500mb) becomes established over the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. Waves of energy and deep moisture convergence (anomalously high PW of 2.1"+) will likely support rounds of showers and lightning storms each day. While the highest coverage is likely to be focused during the daylight hours, showers could linger deeper into the night, and possibly develop early in the morning, in this pattern. GFS continues to call for much higher rainfall amounts by mid-week than all other long term guidance at 1-4" through the 7-day period, close to double the ECMWF- AIFS at 0.5-2". Ensemble guidance across the board is remains closer to a 7-day total QPF of 1.5-2.5" for most east- central Florida locations. Locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall through the period are likely to see locally higher accumulations, which may lead to brief flooding, especially in urban, low- lying, and poor drainage areas. WPC maintains a Day 4 and 5 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across the Florida peninsula. On the plus side, daytime temps will drop back into the upper 80s to low 90s, especially by Tuesday- Wednesday, thanks to the higher cloud cover and rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions outside of lightning storms through the weekend, as the Atlantic high remains in control of local conditions. Southerly winds shift more southeasterly in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze, then more southwesterly late in the night and morning with the land breeze, as a weak high pressure ridge axis drifts from Central Florida today to South Florida by the weekend. Forecast confidence decreases going into early next week, due to uncertainty in development of weak disturbances, but increasingly unsettled weather and higher chances for showers and storms are expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The sea breeze has formed and is pushing inland. Scattered lightning storms have formed along the sea breeze, mainly north of MLB, with an outflow boundary pushing into central Florida. Have maintained VCTS starting at 18Z for coastal sites. Sea breeze collision looks to occur in the interior once again today. Have added TEMPOs for MCO, SFB, ISM from 21-23Z for MVFR/IFR conditions. There is some uncertainty with timing and overall coverage of storms this afternoon, so will monitor and amend as necessary. Mostly dry overnight with winds becoming light and variable before shifting SSW by mid morning on Friday and increasing to 5-10 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 75 92 / 20 40 30 40 MCO 76 94 76 94 / 30 60 40 60 MLB 76 90 76 90 / 20 40 30 50 VRB 75 91 74 91 / 20 50 20 40 LEE 76 94 76 93 / 10 40 30 50 SFB 76 94 77 94 / 20 50 30 50 ORL 77 94 77 94 / 20 50 40 60 FPR 75 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Watson
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Tonight![]() T-storms Likely then Chance T-storms |
Friday![]() T-storms Likely |
Friday Night ![]() Chance T-storms |
Saturday![]() Chance T-storms |
Saturday Night ![]() Slight Chance T-storms |
Lo 81 °F | Hi 87 °F | Lo 83 °F | Hi 87 °F | Lo 81 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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