Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

041
FXUS62 KMLB 250731
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this
  afternoon and evening, with slightly greater coverage forecast
  on Sunday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some small hail
  are possible.

- Favorable boating conditions through the weekend, becoming poor
  over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warming up this weekend, slightly cooler along the coast early
  next week, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today-Sunday... A mid-level troughy pattern continues with pulses of
shortwave energy passing within northwest flow aloft. A surface
ridge axis loosely holds influence as high pressure weakens.
Moisture profiles start dry today with PWATs modeled around 1.1".
Moisture recovers (1.4-1.5") into the afternoon in vicinity of the
next passing shortwave. Best shower and storm chances (20-30%)
should increase as a sea breeze collision occurs near the Orlando
metro late in the day. Any activity which becomes aided by the
passing energy aloft will be capable of frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and even small hail. A daily sea breeze pattern
continues Sunday. However, offshore flow should favor a west coast
sea breeze regime, keeping the east coast breeze closer to the I-95
corridor. Coverage slightly increases Sunday, becoming more widely
scattered (30-50%). RAP analysis may suggest yet another shortwave
passing aloft Sunday which could again support a few stronger storms
capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and small hail.
New fire starts are a concern with lightning activity. Steering flow
may guide convection or lingering rainfall back toward the coast
each afternoon and evening, with some coastal activity forecast to
linger a few hours beyond sunset.

High temperatures should remain above normal through the weekend.
Highs in the mid to upper 80s today will slightly warm along the
coast Sunday as the east coast sea breeze is slower to develop. A
Minor HeatRisk will exist across portions of the area today,
expanding across much of east central Florida Sunday. Proper
hydration will be essential if participating in outdoor activities
this weekend.

Monday-Friday... A weak 500mb trough moves offshore the Carolina and
mid Atlantic Coast early Monday, followed quickly by a second trough
moving offshore the northeast coast. Developing surface low pressure
in the western Atlantic will guide a "back-door" cold front across
east central Florida Monday. Monday`s PoPs (20-30%) have shown only
a slight increase along the front before drier air spreads across
the region. Models are becoming in better agreement in a cold front
approaching the area into Thursday, but there remains uncertainty in
how cleanly the front may pass.

High temperatures trend near normal along the coast Monday and
Tuesday reaching above normal values across the interior (mid/upper
80s). A continued hotter trend builds from Wednesday onward with
highs climbing into the 90s across much of the interior each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue through the weekend. Light
winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each
afternoon, and seas hold 2-3 ft. Mostly dry across the local waters
today outside a few showers or storms that may push offshore late
this afternoon and early this evening. Another round of showers will
be possible Sunday night into early Monday morning, primarily over
the offshore waters. Coverage of isolated to scattered showers and
storms (20-40%) is forecast to more broadly spread the local
Atlantic waters Sunday afternoon and evening.

Winds shift northeast 10-15 kts into Monday as a weak cold front
pushes across the waters. Seas briefly build 4-6 ft Monday night,
subsiding 3-4 ft by late Wednesday. Drier conditions return from
Tuesday onward as high pressure returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. Dry overnight, with isolated to
scattered showers forecast along the sea breeze Saturday
afternoon. CAMs disagree on the timing and placement of
convection, but the highest coverage looks to occur over the
interior (MCO/ISM/SFB), where TEMPOs have been included for peak
timing. A few storms can`t be ruled out, though instability is
modest and confidence is low. There could be some drift back
towards the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours thanks
to westerly steering flow. Have included VCSH from MLB northward
along the coast to account for this. Otherwise, SE winds increase
to 8-12 kts along and behind the sea breeze, becoming light
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sensitive minRH values continue across portions of the interior
today before moisture gradually recovers Sunday and Monday. Light
winds shift east-southeast around 10-15 mph this afternoon as the
east coast sea breeze moves inland. The west coast sea breeze
becomes favored Sunday, and west winds increase 10-15 mph across
much of the interior in the afternoon. However, a weaker, slower
east coast breeze will still manage to shift wind east-southeast in
vicinity of the I-95 corridor Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms are forecast this afternoon. Increasing coverage of
scattered showers and storms is forecast Sunday, and new fire starts
are a concern with lightning activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  87  66 /  30  10  40  20
MCO  88  66  88  68 /  30  20  50  10
MLB  84  67  86  68 /  20  20  40  20
VRB  84  66  87  66 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  65  87  67 /  20   0  40  10
SFB  89  65  88  67 /  30  20  50  10
ORL  89  67  88  68 /  30  20  50  10
FPR  84  65  87  65 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion