Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

826
FXUS62 KMLB 111125
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
725 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of east central Florida
  today from 11 AM to 7 PM for peak heat indices up to 110F.

- Hot conditions will persist into next week, with highs in the
  low to mid 90s and peak heat indices 105 to 109 forecast.
  Additional Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out.

- Rain and storm chances increase through this weekend and into
  early next week as moisture increases across east central
  Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Today...High pressure at the surface and aloft remains in place,
with continued moisture advection northward the result of
persistent southerly flow. Rain and storm chances increase across
east central Florida, reaching 30-60% areawide. A quiet morning is
forecast (after outflow-driven convection lifted north from south
FL overnight). A sea breeze collision across the interior late in
the day will focus a majority of convection. Sufficient surface-
based instability and modest low-level lapse rates will support
the development of a few strong storms late in the afternoon and
evening, with lingering dry air aloft supporting gusty winds at
times. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and
brief heavy downpours will be possible. Activity should linger
well past sunset, diminishing overnight.

Combination of above normal temperatures in the mid 90s and an
increase in dewpoints/humidity will produce peak heat indices up
to 110. So a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of east central
Florida from late morning through the early evening. Practicing
heat safety is key to prevent heat-related illness. Adequate
hydration, frequent breaks in the shade or air-conditioned
buildings, and wearing lightweight, lightly colored clothing is
strongly encouraged for those spending extended periods of time
outdoors. Little overnight relief is anticipated, with conditions
remaining muggy in the 70s.

Sun-Fri...Broad mid-level ridging and the surface Atlantic high
will remain in place across the Florida peninsula through Sunday.
By Monday and into early next week, a mid-level trough slowly
moves across the southeastern US, with its associated surface cold
front drifting southward. The surface Atlantic high will weaken
and shift slightly south as the boundary approaches, with the mid-
level trough and surface boundary forecast to stall just north of
east central Florida. While persistent southwest to west flow
will drive increasing moisture across east central Florida through
the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, the
approaching boundary will also further boost moisture across the
area. This in turn will lead to continued near-normal rain and
storm chances of 30-60% across east central Florida, with the
highest chances primarily focused across northern portions of the
forecast area. Activity looks to follow the typical summertime
diurnal pattern, with sea breeze driven convection anticipated
each afternoon into the evening hours. Predominant west-southwest
flow will keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the east coast,
hence the greatest rain/storm chances through the extended period
favoring eastern portions of the Florida peninsula with
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Activity will
diminish into the late evening hours, pushing offshore across the
local Atlantic waters overnight.

Temperatures on Sunday will remain hot in the mid 90s areawide,
with peak heat indices 105-109. Major to Extreme HeatRisk is
forecast to continue on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate ever
so slightly into next week, but are still forecast to remain above
normal values. A close eye will be kept on peak heat indices
through the extended, but overall trends suggest values generally
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria into early next week. Muggy
conditions will persist every night across east central Florida,
with lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters this weekend and into mid next week. Broad
high pressure across the Atlantic will remain in place through at
least Monday, shifting southward into mid week as a frontal
boundary approaches and stalls just north of the local waters.
Increased moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and
storms through this weekend and early next week. Southwest to
southeast winds 10 to 15 knots persist through the forecast period
along with seas of 1-2 feet except up to 3 feet offshore Volusia.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR outside of convection. Very low confidence in convective
evolution this afternoon and evening. SH/TS could develop on the
east coast sea breeze as early as 16Z, with light southerly flow
slowing inland progression of the boundary, which could keep
activity INVOF of the coastal terminals through the afternoon.
Some recent guidance even pins the boundary near the coast.
Inland ISO SH could develop as early as 18Z, but highest chances
for TS impacts after 20Z. Enough of a consistent signal for TS
impacts at KMCO and inland terminals late in the evening for
TEMPOs, but confidence in timing is very low. For this package
opted to go on the earlier side at 20Z-01Z, but some guidance
suggests as late as 23Z-03Z for main TS impacts. Guidance has not
been consistent enough for TEMPOs at the coastal terminals, but a
few runs have shown the potential for TS pushing back to the coast
through 04Z. Outside of TS light southerly winds could go VRB at
times, shifting SSE-SE at around 10 kts behind the sea breeze,
however far inland it gets, before going light southerly again
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  10
MCO  97  76  96  77 /  50  30  40  10
MLB  92  77  93  77 /  40  10  40  10
VRB  93  75  93  76 /  40  10  30  10
LEE  96  77  95  78 /  50  30  40  10
SFB  97  77  96  77 /  50  40  50  10
ORL  96  77  95  78 /  50  40  40  10
FPR  92  75  93  75 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion