Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

558
FXUS62 KMLB 271817
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
217 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend with the rapid
  approach of a cold front that will stall across south Florida
  late this weekend.

- Windy and gusty conditions are anticipated this weekend, and a
  Wind Advisory will likely be needed across portions of east
  central Florida.

- Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions are forecast
  to develop this weekend as a result of increasing winds and seas
  due to the front. Entering the surf is not advised this weekend!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure will remain in place across the
western Atlantic through today, with the ridge axis remaining
draped across the Florida peninsula. Light and variable to calm
winds are anticipated this morning and when combined with the
drier air and mostly clear skies, there remains a chance for fog
development early this morning. Any fog that does manage to
develop is anticipated to diminish after sunrise as winds increase
and the boundary layer mixes out. Onshore winds pick up into this
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland,
enhancing wind speeds to around 10 mph. As the sea breeze pushes
inland through this afternoon and into the evening hours, there is
a low chance (20%) for some isolated shower activity, primarily
west of I-95 from the Orlando metro southward towards Lake
Okeechobee. At this time, confidence in storm development remains
too low to include mention of within the forecast due to a lack of
instability. Showers diminish into the overnight hours, with
winds becoming light and variable to calm once again tonight.
There is a chance for patchy fog development late tonight into
early Saturday across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee.

Above normal temperatures are forecast this afternoon across east
central Florida, with highs anticipated to reach the 80s
areawide. Along the coast, the onshore winds will help keep
temperatures in the low 80s, but west of I-95, highs are forecast
to reach the mid to upper 80s. Overnight temperatures will fall
into the low to mid 60s.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure situated across the northern
Plains region will slide southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic
and southeastern US Saturday and Sunday, causing a cold front to
quickly move towards the Florida peninsula on Saturday before
stalling across south Florida into Sunday. As a result, rain
chances are forecast to increase areawide between 20-50% on
Saturday, with the best chances focused along the coast. By
Sunday, the highest rain chances shift southward towards the
Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee as the front stalls
south of the area. There is a low chance (20-30%) for storm
development with this activity and any activity that does manage
to develop will likely be disorganized due to a lack of
instability.

Aside from the increasing rain and storm chances, winds are
anticipated to become windy and gusty areawide Saturday afternoon
as the front quickly approaches the area. Winds veer to out of the
north-northeast with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts
of 30 to 40 mph possible. The strongest winds are anticipated to
occur along the coast. These wind speeds are forecast to continue
across the area into Sunday, with winds becoming more easterly. A
Wind Advisory will likely be needed for portions of east central
Florida through this weekend. These winds will also lead to
rapidly increasing seas, which will result in hazardous to
dangerous beach and boating conditions. A high risk of rip
currents and rough surf are forecast. Residents and visitors
should avoid entering the ocean this week due to these hazardous
conditions.

A tight temperature gradient is anticipated across east central
Florida on Saturday as the front moves through and cooler air
begins to filter in behind the front. Afternoon highs reach the
upper 70s to low 80s from Orlando to the Cape and areas northward,
with southern portions of east central Florida still forecast to
reach the mid to upper 80s, especially across the interior. By
Sunday afternoon, the front will be south of the area and the
cooler air will settle across the peninsula, with highs generally
in the low to mid 70s areawide. Overnight lows are forecast to
remain near to slightly above normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Monday-Thursday...The surface high situated across the Mid-
Atlantic and southeastern US this weekend will move offshore
across the western Atlantic into next week, with the ridge axis
remaining well north of the Florida peninsula. The stalled frontal
boundary is anticipated to gradually diminish, though plentiful
moisture will remain in place across the Florida peninsula through
the extended period as onshore winds continue to advect moisture
towards the area. East-southeast winds when combined with the
lingering moisture will produce low to medium rain chances
(20-50%) across east central Florida on Monday and low rain
chances (20-30%) from Tuesday onward. The highest rain chances
occur primarily during the afternoon hours when the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland, supporting shower development
primarily across the interior portions of east central Florida.
Activity will likely diminish into the evening hours each day.

Afternoon temperatures will gradually warm through the extended
period as the area remains under an area of high pressure, with
values eventually reaching above normal values by the middle of
next week. Overnight temperatures will remain relatively
unchanged.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Today`s generally favorable boating conditions with winds below
15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will be short-lived. A rapidly
approaching cold front on Saturday will cause winds to shift to
out of the north-northeast, surging to 20 to 30 knots across the
local Atlantic waters. Frequent gale-force gusts will be
possible, especially Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Seas
respond to this wind surge by building to 8 to 15 feet across the
local waters. A Gale Watch is in effect across the local Atlantic
waters late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning. The
front will move south of the local waters into Sunday, with
onshore winds and seas slowly subsiding late Sunday into the
start of next week. Boating conditions are anticipated to remain
poor to hazardous through at least the middle of next week.

Mostly dry conditions are anticipated across the local Atlantic
waters today. Rain and storm chances then increase to 20-50% this
weekend through Monday due to the frontal boundary. High pressure
builds north of the waters into next week, bringing lower rain
chances through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will largely persist through tonight into tomorrow
morning. A few showers may develop with the sea breeze collision
across the interior, just west of KMCO toward sunset. However,
rain chances remain quite low (10-20%), so will keep any mention
out of the inland TAFs for now. Patchy fog may also develop late
tonight through early Saturday morning, producing brief IFR/MVFR
conditions between 08-13Z, but not much guidance support at this
time, so will also not include in the TAFs with this issuance.

Passing front into Saturday will lead to very windy and gusty
conditions developing behind this boundary into the afternoon,
with MVFR cigs building in behind the front as well. These
conditions will reach KDAB first (near to after 15Z), with N/NE
winds increasing to 20-25 knots and gusts increasing to 30-35
knots. These stronger winds and lower cigs will expand southward
across the area then through Saturday afternoon (near to after
18Z) and linger into at least the evening. Isolated to scattered
onshore moving showers and a few storms will also be possible
behind the front into Saturday afternoon and evening, with
greatest rain chances along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  77  62  74 /  10  30  30  20
MCO  66  84  65  75 /  20  30  30  30
MLB  65  81  66  75 /  10  40  60  40
VRB  63  82  67  76 /  10  30  60  50
LEE  63  80  61  76 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  64  81  63  75 /  10  20  30  20
ORL  66  82  64  75 /  20  30  30  20
FPR  62  83  65  76 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-144-247-547.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-
     347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ141-347-447-647-747.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ154-
     159-164.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ154-159-164.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ254-
     259-264.

AM...Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-
     570.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ552-
     572.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion