Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

369
FXUS62 KMLB 031900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Unsettled to begin the work week, with a 50 to 70% chance of
  showers and storms today and Tuesday. The strongest storms will
  be capable of producing a few wind gusts up to around 50 mph.
  There is a 5 to 10% chance of 3 to 4 inches of rain, which may
  cause flooding in poor drainage areas.

- Onshore flow returns to the area by midweek, pushing the highest
  coverage of showers and storms over the interior by Wednesday
  and Thursday.

- Another disturbance may arrive from the east late in the work
  week. If this occurs, rain chances and the risk of life-
  threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches would both increase
  beginning Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Currently-Tonight...Early convection on the west coast has once
again blanketed much of the peninsula in mid to upper level
clouds, limiting potential for destabilization from daytime
heating. The only areas that managed to see decent sunlight were
south of I-4, and outflow from the earlier convection offset that
destabilization some. While scattered to numerous showers with
embedded isolated lightning storms remain possible thanks to the
high moisture and broad upper level support from the nearby
trough, the prospect for stronger storms seems to now be limited
to the coast from the Cape south, and even that is being upset by
the outflow overrunning the sea breeze before the boundary can
develop much. Storms here will be capable of gusty winds to 55
mph, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. While
convection elsewhere is expected to be weaker, the enhanced 20-25
kt steering flow means even moderate convection could produce
gusts to 45 mph. The potential for rainfall amounts over 2" has
decreased due to how convection evolved, but there still remains a
threat for locally high rainfall amounts that could lead to minor
flooding of low-lying areas, especially along the coast south of
the Cape. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal in the
U80s-L90s thanks to the high cloud cover. Rain chances drop in the
evening but once again don`t go away in the overnight, and a
20-30% is maintained.

Tuesday...A lobe of upper-level energy becomes cut-off over the
Deep South at the parent trough that has been resident over the
eastern US that last few days lifts away. The elongated surface
low centered over the Northeast ejects with the trough, but the
abandoned mid-level disturbance to the south will help keep the
trailing front draped across the the North Gulf states in place.
Offshore flow will continue a bit longer between the front and
high pressure over the western Atlantic, but will weaken and
become more southerly. High moisture in the weakening offshore
flow remains over the area, but not as anomalously high as
previous days, supporting 40-60% rain chances in the afternoon and
evening, and should finally see an end to the overnight rain
chances. Could even see rain chances drop across the northern
counties if the mid-level low manages to develop a weak surface
low and advect drier air towards North Florida. There is again
potential for early convection near the west coast to upset how
things evolve the rest of the day, so confidence in exact timing
and strength is very low. Scattered to numerous showers with
isolated embedded storms are expected in areas clouded over, while
locations that get sunlight could see higher coverage heavier
showers and stronger lightning storms.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure over the western Atlantic and
its surface projection shift closer to the Eastern Seaboard as the
cut-off low is lifted into a broad trough swinging down to the to
the northern Plains and Ohio valley. Winds start light and
variable Wednesday morning, then become onshore (easterly) in the
afternoon, where they`ll remain through the rest of the week. The
onshore flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to push well
inland, shifting the highest rain chances over the interior. The
plume of high moisture will linger over the area Wednesday, before
being ushered west, with closer to normal moisture advecting
across the peninsula Thursday. Better daytime heating looks to
offset the lost moisture, and rain chances remain 40-60%. Could
see an early start to showers and storms near and along the east
coast, then moving inland with a collision over the interior
Wednesday, and closer to the west coast Thursday.

Friday-Sunday...The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged.
High pressure over the western Atlantic is flattened and shunted
some as the trough to our north pushes towards the Mid-Atlantic
seaboard and offshore, but the surface high will stay nearly
stationary off the southeast seaboard, keeping the ridge axis to
the north and us in onshore flow. Models continue to bring a weak
disturbance and higher moisture towards Florida along the southern
edge of the Bermuda high. Latest trends have generally been
weaker, most bringing an open wave that half of which recurve
offshore causing little to no local impact, and the other half
recurve over/near Florida but vary how far north/south. A few
solutions develop more of a trough, which further complicates the
forecast by introducing advection of drier air on the
western/southern side of the feature. Therefore, it is too early
to tell what if any impacts this wave could bring, but the return
of high rain chances and minor flooding impacts are on the table.
Otherwise, near typical Florida summer conditions with afternoon
thunderstorms and highs in the U80s-L90s, possibly creeping
towards the M90s inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Today-Friday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating in
the local Atlantic waters through mid-week. A weak cut-off low
pressure system over the Deep South and the attendant weak cold
front draped across the North Gulf coast will keep the Atlantic
high offshore through Tuesday. Offshore (southwesterly) flow will
continue between these two systems the next couple days, becoming
weaker on Tuesday. The high will then shift closer to the eastern
seaboard Wednesday, shifting winds onshore (easterly), and remain
in control of local conditions through late week. During the
offshore flow period the sea breeze circulation will shift winds
S-SE, and enhance flow during the onshore period. Wind speeds 5-15
kts and seas 1-3 ft through Wednesday. A weak disturbance is
forecast to approach Florida Thursday into Friday, which could
increase winds to 15-20 kts and seas to 4-6 ft at times. Mariners
should monitor the forecast and be prepared to exercise caution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A bit of a tricky forecast for the remainder of the day, as
earlier showers and cloud cover seem to have limited the threat
for TSRA from ISM/MCO northward. Nevertheless, a few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out this afternoon, so have included
prevailing VCSH with TEMPOs for embedded TSRA affecting the
terminals, before tapering off this evening. Cannot rule out a few
stray showers overnight, but confidence is low. Instead, the
greatest chance for convection appears to be along the coast from
MLB southward, generally from 19-23Z, when TEMPOs have been
included. VCSH looks to continue there through around 2Z, before
tapering off. SW flow 9-12 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts, backs
S/SSE along the coast with the sea breeze.

An unsettled pattern looks to persist into Tuesday, with a few
rounds of showers possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  89 /  20  60  20  50
MCO  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  20  60
MLB  75  90  76  89 /  30  60  20  40
VRB  73  90  74  89 /  40  60  30  50
LEE  75  90  75  91 /  30  60  10  60
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  50  20  60
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  50  20  60
FPR  73  90  74  88 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Wishard

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion