Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

359
FXUS62 KMLB 020602
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through early this evening.
  Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast through
  tonight, with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Combined with
  saturated soils, this may cause sporadic instances of flash
  flooding. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded
  roadways.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to rough seas
  and brisk easterly winds. 5-7 ft breakers and numerous, life-
  threatening rip currents are expected today at our beaches. Do
  not enter the ocean! Minor to moderate tidal flooding remains
  possible, mainly south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Rain chances gradually decrease from mid to late week, with high
  temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s each day. A more
  significant cold front may arrive in about a week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough axis near
Florida this morning, with clear upper divergence ahead of the
feature. Fresh onshore flow persists in the boundary layer, with
Florida residing in a tight pressure gradient to the south of a
surface high over the Mid-Atlantic. PWAT (total moisture) values
are around 2 inches, which is well above early November norms. A
well-defined MCV sits south of Orlando; it has enhanced the
upward motion and deep moisture convergence over Central and South
Florida during the last 12 to 18 hours. The overall setup will
change little through today.

Later tonight and into Tuesday, the shortwave trough is expected
to weaken as it nearly stalls over Florida. Gradually, the
pressure gradient will start to relax on Tuesday and especially
Wednesday. Still, above-normal moisture is forecast to remain
situated over Florida through the middle of the week.

The global ensembles continue to track a pair of shortwaves in the
subtropical jet over the Central U.S. later this week. The first one
is forecast to reach the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday before
quickly weakening as it runs into a ridge along the East Coast. The
second feature, fast on its heels, passes north of Florida on
Friday. A diffuse cold front may reach the state on Friday as it
moves by. Little cold air advection is expected behind this front,
and moisture levels only drop closer to seasonal averages.

Guidance favors a more significant pattern change beginning
late this weekend into early next week. As ridging shifts to the
Western U.S., ensemble means support a developing trough over the
southern Mississippi Valley by Sunday. Cluster analysis of the
01/12Z guidance shows considerable spread in trough timing and
amplitude. However, more than half of members support a cold front
reaching the state around next Monday. Briefly, deeper moisture
looks to be advected ahead of the front. H85 (5kft) temperatures are
expected to fall below normal behind the boundary by next Tuesday
(Nov 10th).

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

Bands of heavy rain and isolated lightning continue to develop
early this morning along the coast from Brevard County northward,
extending into Greater Orlando. As mentioned in the overview,
the setup remains favorable for heavy rain and localized flooding
through at least this morning, but hi-res guidance continues
to disagree on how quickly the flooding threat will end later
today. For this reason, we have opted to continue the Flood Watch
for all of east central Florida through 7 pm.

This disturbance has already proven its ability to drop copious
rainfall amounts, evidenced by the flash flooding that took place
near Okeechobee and West Palm Beach on Sunday. Through tonight,
an additional 1-3" of rain is forecast, with a 5-10% chance of
additional amounts exceeding 5 inches. Exact placement of these
heavy rain bands is difficult, and our available guidance has
continued to struggle with the evolution of this event. Our soil
saturation model shows greater than 80% saturation from Brevard
County southward before exceeding 90-95% along the Treasure
Coast to Okeechobee. These areas remain particularly vulnerable
to flash flooding, as saturated soils have limited capacity to
absorb additional rainfall, increasing the potential for rapid
runoff and localized inundation.

Later this afternoon and into tonight, we expect rain coverage
to drop somewhat, though moisture remains sufficient for locally
heavy downpours through the night.

Finally, beach conditions remain hazardous. The High Surf Advisory
will continue until early this evening for 5-7 ft breakers,
and numerous life-threatening rip currents are likely. Minor
to moderate coastal flooding remains possible, especially this
afternoon during high tide south of St Lucie Inlet.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

As the disturbance responsible for all of this rain stalls over
us and weakens, ample moisture will remain in place for a few
showers and/or isolated storms. Coverage should range from 40-60%
on Tuesday to 30-50% on Wednesday. Generally speaking, lighter
amounts are forecast, which should limit excessive rainfall and
flooding concerns. Easterly breezes will continue, though speeds
and gusts will begin to relax a bit.

Some additional sunshine will allow high temps to bounce back into
the low to mid 80s.

Thursday and beyond...

Deep-layer moisture continues to lessen later this week and into the
weekend, limiting rain chances to 20% or less each day. Tranquil
conditions will finally allow some drying to take place over all
of Central Florida. High temps should remain warm in the low to
mid 80s, but the slightly less humid air will mean cooler nights
with 60s for most spots.

The next cold front may arrive around next Monday, bringing our
next opportunity for showers and a few storms. Statistical guidance
is keeping rain chances rather low, but these may increase once
the guidance gets a better handle on timing and strength of the
front. Depending on its strength, many models deliver some of
the coolest air so far this autumn by next Tuesday and Wednesday,
just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue. Fresh easterly flow in
a tight pressure gradient over Florida continues to cause rough
seas over the local Atlantic. Strong high pressure to the north
will remain north of the waters early this week before gradually
weakening by midweek. An upper-level disturbance will continue
to spark scattered to numerous showers and a few storms through
Tuesday. More tranquil conditions by mid to late week will improve
boating conditions. A diffuse cold front is expected to reach the
area late Friday into Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories continue through Tuesday morning for all
of the Atlantic and extend into Tuesday night for the offshore
waters. East winds 15-25 kts today, 15-20 kts on Tuesday, then
10-15 kts on Wednesday. Seas 6-9 ft today, 5-8 ft on Tuesday,
and 5-6 feet by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 102 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

East winds 10-15 knots occasionally gusty along the coast with
rounds of +SHRA and very isold TSRA overnight. An increase in E
winds on Mon gusting 20-24 knots, including MCO which would produce
some crosswind issues. MVFR-IFR impacts (with ocnl LIFR possible)
will continue with this convection. Less coverage overnight across
the southern terminals so handling that with PROB30 but
redevelopment is forecast on Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  71  81  72 /  70  60  40  20
MCO  80  71  83  71 /  70  40  50  10
MLB  81  72  82  73 /  70  60  60  40
VRB  82  72  84  72 /  70  60  60  40
LEE  81  69  84  69 /  50  30  50  10
SFB  81  71  83  71 /  60  40  50  20
ORL  80  71  83  71 /  60  40  50  10
FPR  81  72  83  72 /  70  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-
     144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion