Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

854
FXUS62 KMLB 082320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Boundary interactions and deep moisture will produce the best
  chance for storms across northern sections into early this
  evening. Strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and
  locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" (isolated to 5") possible.

- Rain chances decrease Sunday (30-50%) and then a drier airmass
  leads to below normal coverage of showers and storms each day
  next week.

- Hot and humid with peak heat index values of 102-107F and may
  reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Thru Tonight...Storms focused near the coast this morning and
early afternoon but should now focus more on the interior and
Volusia county through early evening. HREF (ARW and NSSL) is not
bullish with development as the HRRR and RRFS are. But given the
deep moisture present across the north, sfc heating and eventual
boundary interactions (not to mention active storms in NE FL),
think additional storm development looks likely with the highest
coverage focusing through the I-4 corridor and Lake county. Have
not seen much wind with the earlier storms near the coast but
cannot rule out a wet downburst of 40-50 mph. Of greater concern
are the frequent lightning strikes (including a few "bolts from
the blue") seen earlier and should redevelop with additional
storms.

A risk of heavy to excessive rainfall will exist due to the very
moist airmass in place as 15Z XMR sounding shows PWAT of 2.27".
Storm motion is slower and the deep southerly flow is encouraging
cell segments to train over the same area at times. Quick
rainfall totals of 2-3" with isolated spots to around 5" are
possible, leading to temporary flooding issues. Convection will
gradually wind down after sunset across the interior, with mostly
dry conditions overnight.

Sun...Atlantic ridge axis will begin to shift southward tomorrow,
with onshore winds out of the east-southeast forecast. Aloft, a
mid-level ridge will begin to nudge its way in from the east and
combine with the advection of drier air aloft (PW values falling
to 1.8-2.0"). So this should lead to a decrease in showers and
storms. However, still expecting scattered coverage (PoPs 30-50%)
into the afternoon/evening, especially across the interior. Storm
threats of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall will continue with any stronger convection. Hot and
humid conditions persist, with highs in the low 90s, and
potentially reaching the mid 90s northwest of I-4. Peak heat index
values still forecast around 102-107F in the afternoon.

Mon-Sat...Ridge aloft continues to build west and across Florida,
remaining in place across the region through all of next week.
This will lead to continued hot and humid conditions and also
combine with drier air moving in aloft to produce below normal
storm coverage each day. Afternoon/evening shower and storm
chances drop to 20-30% Monday and Tuesday and 20% or less
Wednesday-Friday. Atlantic ridge axis shifting southward and
eventually south of central FL into mid/late week will also
eventually switch the prevailing flow offshore, which will put an
end to any potential for isolated onshore moving showers during
the overnight/early morning hours.

With limited relief from afternoon convection, heat impacts will
rise into next week, with highs near to above normal in the low to
mid 90s leading to a widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Peak
heat index values will continue to solidly reach 102-107F, but for
portions of the area could see these values nudge toward Heat
Advisory criteria of 108-110F, especially Tuesday onward. Will
continue to monitor the need for any Heat Advisories next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Boating conditions forecast to remain overall favorable this weekend
through at least the middle of next week as Atlantic ridge axis
north of the area today gradually shifts southward, becoming
stationary over south central FL. Winds will remain onshore,
generally out of the SE through Sunday, veering to the S/SE early
next week then becoming W/SW Wed/Thu as ridge axis shifts south.
A 10-12 knot east coast sea breeze will develop each afternoon
next week. Seas will continue to subside slowly, from 3-4 feet
this afternoon to 2-3 feet Sunday and 1-2 feet by Wed-Thu.

Drier air moving into the region will then lead to mostly dry
conditions across the waters next week. However, should still see
periods of isolated showers and storms still developing at times
(rain chances mostly 20% or less).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VCTS continues near MCO and ISM through 01Z, winding down to VCSH
at SFB and LEE. PROB30s still in play at MCO and ISM for VIS and
CIG reductions due to TSRA. Dry conditions along the coast, with
the interior terminals joining after 01Z. VFR overnight with light
ESE winds. Winds pick up to around 10 knots after 16Z, with the
ECSB pushing inland. Increasing chances for VCSH along the coast
with the ECSB development, with VCTS possible across the interior
after 19Z. Too early to determine the need for PROB30s or TEMPOs,
but the interior terminals have the best chance of needed one.
Will monitor and amend as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  76  91 /  20  30  10  20
MCO  76  93  76  93 /  30  40  10  20
MLB  77  89  77  90 /  10  30   0  10
VRB  77  90  77  91 /  20  30   0  10
LEE  76  92  77  92 /  40  40  20  10
SFB  76  92  76  93 /  30  40  10  30
ORL  76  92  76  93 /  30  40  10  20
FPR  76  90  76  90 /  20  30   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion