Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

936
FXUS62 KMLB 061109
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
709 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Deep moisture and light southwest flow will continue high
  afternoon and evening rain chances along the sea breeze
  collision through Tuesday. A few strong storms will be capable
  of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55
  mph, and heavy rainfall.

- Drier air builds mid to late week, noticeably reducing rain
  chances from Wednesday onward.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue today. A
  building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures
  increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Today-Tonight... Another persistence forecast is expected, driven
by light southwest flow and deep moisture. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms which develop on the east and west coast sea
breeze early in the afternoon become locally numerous in coverage
late in the day as a sea breeze collision occurs on the eastern
side of the peninsula. Overnight runs of high-res models have
struggled to resolve the areas of highest coverage recently.
However, consistency among global ensemble members may suggest
this afternoon`s greatest coverage (~60-70%) occurring near and
south of Orlando/ Cape Canaveral through Lake Okeechobee. A
summerlike environment of high surface instability and weak shear
will support isolated strong storms capable of frequent lightning
strikes and localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph in vicinity of
downbursts. Heavy downpours in slow moving or stationary storms
may result in minor/ nuisance flooding of urban or low lying
areas. Outside of storms, temperatures warm a degree or two from
yesterday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s are forecast late overnight into early
Tuesday.

Tuesday-Saturday... As model disagreements in the synoptic pattern
over the eastern U.S. slowly resolve, guidance continues to show
high pressure holding influence over the local weather pattern.
Scattered showers and storms (40-60%) are forecast Tuesday before
drier air associated with the next plume of Saharan dust works to
noticeably reduce rain chances mid to late week. Coverage of widely
isolated to scattered showers and storms on Wednesday (20-40%)
becomes mostly dry on Thursday. Considerable spread then exists as
to when mentionable rain chances may start to return. Global
ensemble members are split on rain chances returning in vicinity
of Lake Okeechobee on Friday before scattered rain chances are
reintroduced more areawide this weekend. Will have to watch for a
strong storm capable of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds
should any stronger updrafts be able to overcome and mix the
layer of dry air.

As rain chances taper back, the primary weather headline transitions
to a period of building heat. By Wednesday, global models suggest
that a portion of the mid level ridge extending from the western
Atlantic will become centered near or offshore northeast Florida.
While the strength and center point of the high may fluctuate
through the period, increased subsidence across the region should
lead to a period of above normal temperatures, especially near and
north of I-4. The current forecast keeps highs in the low to mid 90s
along the coast while temperatures warm through the mid to upper 90s
across portions of the interior mid to late week. A building
HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and
hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat
Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F
threshold across portions of the area by late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions outside of
storms. Light south to southwest winds continue through midweek,
increasing 10-15 kts each evening and overnight. A light south to
southeast wind shift is expected near the coast each afternoon as
the sea breeze develops. Seas of 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3
ft far offshore early this week, and by Thursday, seas build to more
widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters. Scattered to locally
numerous offshore moving storms are forecast this afternoon and
evening, and again on Tuesday.  Drier air builds across the region
into Wednesday, reducing rain chances mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High coverage of showers and storms is forecast this afternoon and
into this evening, with a dominant west coast sea breeze. A sea
breeze collision is forecast near or just west of the coast
between 21-0Z. However, lingering SHRA/TSRA is possible through
around 4Z in some locations. TEMPOs for VIS/CIG reductions begin
over the interior after 20Z, spreading eastward over the next few
hours. Gusty winds near 45 kts will be possible in the strongest
storms. Otherwise, winds remain 8-10 kts or less through the
period and light and variable overnight. VFR conditions prevailing
outside of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  93  77 /  60  20  40  30
MCO  93  76  94  77 /  60  20  60  40
MLB  91  76  91  78 /  70  30  40  20
VRB  92  75  91  77 /  70  30  40  10
LEE  93  77  93  78 /  50  10  30  20
SFB  94  77  95  78 /  70  20  50  30
ORL  93  77  93  78 /  60  20  60  40
FPR  91  74  91  76 /  70  30  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Wishard

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion