Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

839
FXUS62 KMLB 211838
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is
  strongly discouraged!

- While most locations will remain dry, isolated coastal showers,
  with scattered inland showers and lightning storms in the
  afternoons and evenings, continue through the weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, but peak
  heat index values climb to near or above 100 degrees this
  weekend into next week, as moisture increases.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Current-Tonight...Max temps this afternoon in the U80s at the coast
with 90F to L90s inland and peak heat indices generally in the M-
U90s. Surface high pressure ridging across the western Atlc north of
central FL will continue to promote an onshore flow. ESE winds 10-15
mph with gusts to 25 mph (esp behind local sea breeze) will become
light during the evening and overnight. A weak mid/upper level low
continues to spin near the Bahamas. Isolated Atlc showers that
drifted onshore this morning will continue to push into the interior
this afternoon with a few lightning storms across the interior,
though most locations will remain dry. Activity will shift into WCFL
ahead of sunset, with additional light shower activity across the
adjacent coastal waters overnight. A few of these showers may breach
the coast. Overnight lows above normal in the 70s with conditions
muggy.

Fri-Thu...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified. The rinse
and repeat forecast continues into at least early next week. The
surface ridge off of the Carolina coast begins to push southward
towards the Bahamas late in the period. Meanwhile, the mid/upper
level low continues to weaken as it moves eastward Fri into this
weekend, with ridging aloft gradually building over the Florida
peninsula. Expect east to southeast flow to continue, increasing to
10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops and pushes well inland. Will need to monitor for a slight
increase in onshore flow Mon/Tue, as the pgrad tightens with the
approach of a weak front - though this will remain well north of the
area. High temperatures in the U80s-L90s continue, with overnight
lows in the 70s and perhaps L80s at the immediate coast. Peak heat
indices creep into the U90s-L100s as moisture increases this weekend
and early next week.

Onshore flow will lead to a dominant ECSB, with the highest chances
for convection over the western half of the peninsula. Will still
see ISOLD-SCT showers/storms develop along the sea breeze in late
mornings and early afternoons, before pushing westward into the
evenings. PoPs 20-30% through Fri increase slightly up to 40% on Sat
and 50% Sun (interior), as moisture builds (PWATs 1.60-1.85"). At
the coast, ISOLD, onshore-moving showers overnight and during the
mornings continue through much of the period. Chances overall remain
low and most areas will remain dry through at least early next week.
Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds, lightning strikes,
and brief heavy downpours, though warming 500 mb temperatures will
limit the strong storm threat this weekend into next week.

Models hint at a pattern change late next week, possibly leading to
wetter conditions and this may depend on position/strength of
ridging near the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Persistent pattern for the next several days with high pressure
ridging to the north providing for a mostly onshore flow with ISOLD
to WDLY SCT showers and perhaps an ISOLD lightning storm. Some of
this activity will be onshore-moving at night or during the morning
hours. The ECSB will develop and push well inland each day with
generally no push-back of storms to the coast. Boating conditions
mostly favorable, though onshore winds each afternoon will be 10-15
kts and occasional gusts to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the
local sea breeze. There could be occasional wind surges well
offshore late day into evening as the ridge drifts slowly southward
early next week where speeds over the Gulf Stream approach 14-18 kts
at times prompting short-fused poor boating. Seas 2-4 ft into the
weekend and early next week, up to 5 ft well offshore surrounding
wind surges.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection. SE flow is sufficient
enough to shift the evening sea breeze collision west of the ECFL
terminals after 23Z, but ISO TSRA/SHRA expected to develop along
and behind the east coast sea breeze as it moves inland between
19Z-00Z, mainly west of the coastal terminals. Can`t rule out SHRA
pushing back towards KDAB-KTIX through 22Z or so. Coverage/
confidence of TSRA still too low for TEMPOs at KMCO and other
inland terminals. ISO SHRA that have already developed have been
nearly stationary, and any TSRA/+SHRA that develop over terminals
could result in prolonged convective impacts. SHRA could linger as
late as 04Z, then mostly dry conditions inland. ISO onshore moving
-SHRA possible from KVRB-KSUA tonight. Near identical convective
evolution expected Friday.

SE- ESE winds 5-10 kts at inland terminals, around 10 kts at
KDAB- KTIX, and 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KMLB- KSUA this
afternoon settle to 5-10 kts after 02Z and 5 kts or less late.
Winds picks back up to 7-13 kts Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  76  89 /  10  20   0  20
MCO  73  91  74  91 /  10  30   0  40
MLB  78  88  79  88 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  78  88  79  89 /  10  10   0  20
LEE  75  92  75  92 /  30  30  10  40
SFB  74  92  75  92 /  10  30   0  40
ORL  74  91  75  91 /  10  30   0  40
FPR  76  87  78  88 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion