Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

864
FXUS62 KMLB 011907
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
307 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through
  the weekend and into early next week. Storms may form earlier in
  the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50
  mph will be the primary hazards.

- A Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall leading
  to flooding continues across all of East Central Florida through
  Monday. A few spots may see rainfall amounts over 3", leading
  to flooding.

- High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However,
  continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep
  storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake
  Okeechobee region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Currently...Scattered to numerous showers and storms once again
got going on the earlier side, and the many have already pushed
south of the Orlando Metro and offshore Volusia coast, transiting
the southern counties and approaching the coast from the Cape
south. Between the early start and subsequent higher cloud cover,
daytime heating hasn`t been able to provide much instability and
most convection has been rather mushy so far. A few gusts 25-35
mph have been observed, as have pockets of 2" rainfall.

Rest of Today-Tonight...A low pressure system moving towards the
Ohio Valley will deepen as a sharp trough cuts down south over the
Eastern US. While the low will finally lift the stalled front to
our north away, moisture will begin surging across Florida in the
wake of this system. In the few places that aren`t clouded over,
GOES imagery shows PWATs from 1.9-2.2" (75th to 95th
climatological percentiles), backed by this morning`s soundings.
Values could push as high as 2.4" (near to exceeding
climatological max), leading to a favorable environment for heavy
rainfall leading to minor flooding, and the Weather Prediction
Center has again outlined all of East Central Florida in a
Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. While most
locations will see rainfall amounts 0.5" or less, a few spots will
get up to 2" , and one or two spots could see amounts over 3".
The greatest potential for these higher amounts will be along the
coast from the Cape south as activity collides with the sea
breeze, which has barely managed to develop before being overrun.
The highly saturated atmosphere isn`t generally conducive to
downdrafts, but water loading could produce gusty winds to around
45 mph. Frequent lightning will also accompany the strongest
storms. Forecast calls for high temperatures in the L90s, but
those temperatures may be in the rear view mirror for places that
already got heavy rainfall, if reached at all.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-upper level trough continues digging
south over the Eastern US towards the Gulf and Florida Sunday,
then the mid-level low becomes cut-off over the Tennessee Valley.
The associated surface low elongates and weakens in response, but
will help pull anomalously high moisture over the Florida
peninsula in southwesterly flow between the low and high pressure
east of Bermuda. Rain chances remain well above normal, especially
on Sunday which is shaping up to be pretty dreary, with multiple
rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms possible
(chances up to 60-80%) and overcast skies. Highest chances will
continue to be in the afternoons and evenings as the sea breezes
attempt to form and daytime heating provides what little
destabilization it can, but bands of vorticity transiting the base
of the trough aloft could support showers and storms in the
overnights and mornings (chances 30% or less). More locations
could see rainfall amounts up to 2" Sunday with the high coverage
and repeated rounds, then more limited potential Monday as rain
chances back off a bit. The Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall will continue for all of East Central Florida
through Monday. Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly
below normal (if you can believe that) in the U80s-L90s thanks to
the rain and cloud cover. Peak afternoon heat indices even dip
into the 90s across most of the area Sunday, then up to the
L-M100s Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...Return to more typical mid-Summer conditions. The
cut-off mid-level low lingers over the Appalachians before getting
swept up by a broad trough swinging across Canada and the northern
US mid-week, returning more seasonal broad ridging overhead. At
the surface, the ridge axis of the Atlantic high lifts back
towards Florida and eventually north of the area, shifting winds
southerly Tuesday into Wednesday, then onshore again late in the
week. The plume of anomalously high moisture is expected to linger
across Florida through mid-week, before more easterly flow ushers
it westward towards the Gulf, but will continue to see near to
above normal moisture advected across the peninsula in the onshore
flow. Rain chances remain above normal for most of the area,
generally 40-70% each afternoon-evening, with the highest chances
shifting towards the interior as the east coast sea breeze is able
to push farther inland each day. Can`t rule out some minor
flooding concerns, but the threat looks to be closer to that
typically from our afternoon thunderstorms. While technically
warmer conditions are forecast as rain chances decrease some,
temperatures will be very near normal with afternoon highs mostly
in the U80s-L90s, pushing towards the M90s inland in some spots.
Peak heat indices generally 101-105, but a few locations could
perk towards 107. HeatRisk impacts Minor to Moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Today-Wednesday...While winds and seas are generally favorable
for boating, scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
will continue to impact the local Atlantic waters through at least
mid-week, and some higher winds are possible offshore Sunday into
Monday. The Atlantic high remains shunted south and offshore by a
pair of low pressure systems, one over the eastern US (the
stronger of the two) and another ejecting into the Canadian
Maritimes. Southwesterly to south flow will continue across the
area between these features into Monday, then become southerly and
eventually onshore into mid-week as the low over the eastern US
weakens and departs, allowing the Atlantic high to build back to
Florida, with the ridge axis eventually settling north of the
area. The sea breeze circulation will attempt to shift winds more
southeasterly from the afternoon into the early overnight, until
the onshore winds become established, then shifting winds ERLY.
Speeds generally 5-15 kts, but will occasionally push over 15 kts
at times. Small craft may need to exercise caution for winds 15-20
kts offshore north of the Cape Sunday into Monday. Seas 1-2 feet
this afternoon build a bit to 1-3 ft tonight through the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Another early initiation of convection as anticipated north of I-4.
This trend will continue to expand toward the coast and southward
thru the afternoon. SCT-NMRS coverage expected. The ECSB should
develop, but inland movement will be stymied by the westerly flow.
This feature will collide with convection moving in from the west
which should create a few strong pulse storms at the coast.
"Vicinity" & "TEMPO" wording in most TAFs for this aftn/early eve.
Should see gusty winds again with many storms. Activity winds down
this evening, but may need to monitor for convection north/west of I-
4 later tonight. For Sun, rinse/repeat once again with early
initiation and high coverage of showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  74  90 /  30  60  20  60
MCO  75  88  75  90 /  20  60  20  60
MLB  75  88  75  89 /  30  60  20  60
VRB  74  89  75  90 /  30  60  20  60
LEE  75  86  75  89 /  40  60  30  60
SFB  76  88  75  90 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  76  88  75  90 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  74  89  74  90 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion