Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

744
FXUS62 KMLB 171949
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
349 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

- Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions this
  afternoon and evening over the interior of East Central Florida.
  Fire sensitive conditions continue late this week and this weekend

- No rain is forecast through the weekend. Next week, there is at
  least a low chance of a few showers

- A slow warming trend is forecast through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Currently-Friday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over
east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows clear
skies. Broad high pressure (1024mb) is centered over the
northeastern US and extends over the state of Florida.
Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s over coastal
locations and in the upper 70s to mid 80s inland to the west of
I-95. Dew points are generally in the mid 50s to low 60s over
coastal locations and in the mid 40s to upper 50s over the
interior west of I-95. Winds are from the east to the east of the
Orlando metro at around 8-12mph and from south-southwest at around
5-8mph. Very low humidity and east- northeast winds around
10-15mph this afternoon and evening will result in fire sensitive
to near critical conditions, mainly over the interior of east
central Florida into this evening as winds increase along the east
coast sea breeze.

Dry weather is expected through the overnight and on Friday as
high pressure (~1030mb) gradually builds east over the western
Atlantic into Friday with the mid/upper level ridge axis expected
to build over the Gulf of America and the southeastern US. Winds
are expected to increase into the afternoon from the east at
12-18mph with gusts to 20-28mph with onshore flow in place. Low
temperatures in the 60s are expected along the coast with the mid
50s to low 60s forecast over the interior of east central Florida
to the west of I-95. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are
expected along the coast on Friday with the 80s forecast over the
interior west of I-95.

The Weekend... High pressure (~1028mb) is expected to build over
the western Atlantic. Dry weather is forecast to continue with the
associated mid/upper level ridge axis over the eastern Gulf of
America and the southeastern US coupled with PWATs in the
0.60-0.90" range. Winds are expected to increase into the
afternoon and evening from the east at 12-20mph with gusts to
20-28mph with onshore flow in place on Saturday and Sunday.
Afternoon highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected
over coastal locations with the low to upper 80s (near 90 degrees
over the western interior of east central Florida on Sunday). Low
temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees are forecast over
coastal locations with the upper 50s to mid 60s forecast over the
interior west of I-95.

Monday-Wednesday... Moisture is expected to slowly increase early
to mid week next week as the mid/upper level ridge axis shifts
east over the western Atlantic. The mid/upper level ridge is then
expected to weaken and shift south into Tuesday as a major
shortwave trough deepens over the northeastern CONUS. Global
models are in good agreement that PWATs will rise into the
0.90-1.20" range Tuesday and Wednesday with onshore flow in place.
Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast into the
afternoon Tuesday over coastal locations and Wednesday afternoon
over all of east central Florida. East winds are expected to
increase to around 8-15mph each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the
low to upper 80s are forecast with temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s forecast over the western interior of east central
Florida on Monday. Highs are expected to warm into the low to
upper 80s near the coast and the upper 80s to low 90s west of I-95
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees are
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Currently-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to
become poor into Friday as high pressure (~1030mb) builds over
the western Atlantic. East winds at 10-15kts are expected to
increase into Friday at 15-20kts. 2-4ft seas are forecast with up
to 5ft over the Gulf Stream.

Saturday-Monday... Poor boating conditions are expected to improve
Sunday and into Monday as a mid/upper level ridge shifts east-
southeast over the western Atlantic. East winds at 15-20kts are
forecast to decrease and veer southeast into Saturday afternoon
at 10-15kts. 3-5ft seas are forecast to decrease to 2-4ft into
Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Onshore winds
become a bit gusty this evening, then light and variable
overnight. Some VIS reductions due to settled smoke near wildfires
and prescribed burns will be possible where winds become light in
the overnight and early morning. Rinse and repeat for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  81  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  61  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Warm and dry conditions will continue to promote fire
sensitivities late this week. Min RHs are expected to fall below
critical values across the interior this afternoon between 20-35%.
East to northeast winds around 5-10 mph are expected this
afternoon and are forecast to locally increase to 15 mph along
the sea breeze boundary this afternoon. Wind speeds will be
monitored into this early evening and if confidence increases in
wind speeds to 15mph, a Red Flag Warning will likely be issued
mainly over inland Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and
Okeechobee counties. Fire sensitive conditions are expected over
Brevard, inland, St. Lucie, and inland Martin counties with RH
values in the low 30s to mid 40s and east-northeast winds at
10-15mph. High pressure strengthens over the Atlantic Friday which
will increase onshore winds to 15-20 mph through the weekend.
However, min RH values increase to 35-50% Friday and into the
weekend. Minimum RH values between 35-40% are forecast over the
interior into early next week. No precip is forecast through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion