Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

658
FXUS62 KMLB 211126
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
726 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms (chances 40-60%) this
  afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong and
  produce 40-50 mph wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and
  frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Drier air knocks afternoon rain and lightning storm chances
  back closer to normal through the work week.

- Temperatures creep back up going into the work week, especially
  Monday & Tuesday when highs reach the mid to upper 90s, bringing
  back widespread HeatRisk impacts and heat indices up to around
  105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today...Broad troughing begins to develop over the eastern US in
response to high pressure building over the desert Southwest. Weak
high pressure over Florida, the Gulf, and Caribbean is forecast
to hold the trough just north of the area. Model analysis puts the
ridge axis of the Atlantic high over to south of South Florida,
though with how weak the pressure gradient is the exact position
is a bit ambiguous. If not already there, the surface ridge axis
should eventual settle south of the area for much of the week,
continuing light to gentle offshore (WSW-SW) flow. Some drier air
has started to advect over the state, dropping PWATs to 1.6-1.9"
(higher to the north), closer to climatological normal. Showers
and storms could get another early start over the interior today on
the quick moving west coast sea breeze (chances 20-40%),
especially if the ribbon of upper level vorticity at the base of
the trough sags farther south than forecast. Probably not starting
as early as yesterday, closer to noon at the earliest. Should
also see more gradual increase in coverage as activity pushes east
through the afternoon, colliding the the east coast sea breeze
west of the I-95 corridor. Highest chances (40-60%) over the
coastal counties and adjacent portions of the inland counties from
Melbourne north, tapering off inland and south (30-50%). The
drier air aloft does offer more opportunity for downdraft
enhancement (DCAPE 700-1,000 J/kg), low-level lapse rates are a
bit steeper across the board (generally 7-8 C/km and in a couple
cases near 9 C/km), and instability is still plentiful (MUCAPE
2,000-3,500 J/lg), though mid-level temperatures have warmed a bit
(T500 around -6C). All in all the environment remains favorable
for quick forming, strong storms capable of wind gusts 40-50 mph,
locally heavy rainfall 2-3" (very low chance of around 4")
leading to minor flooding of low-lying/poor drainage areas, and
frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning. Small hail can`t
be ruled out, nor can brief funnel clouds or waterspouts. While
not as hot as late last week, temperatures remain above normal
with afternoon highs in the L-M90s, resulting in peak afternoon
heat indices 100-105, and widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts
with pockets of Major in the inland urban areas.

Monday-Tuesday...The upper level pattern becomes stagnant as
blocking high pressure builds over the desert Southwest, keeping a
broad trough over the eastern US. Weak high pressure over
Florida, the Gulf, and Caribbean should keep the trough north of
the area. Will need to keep an eye on the ribbon of vorticity at
the base of the trough, which could provide support for convective
enhancement before it lifts off late Monday into Tuesday. At the
surface, we remain under control of the Atlantic high, whose ridge
axis continues its residency over South Florida to the Straits of
Florida, keeping us in an offshore (WSW-SW) flow regime that
favors a sea breeze collision over the eastern side of the
peninsula. While overall PWATs remain near normal at 1.6-1.9"
Monday and 1.7-2.0" Tuesday, drier air between 850-700mb will be a
considerable hurdle to deep convection, and knocks rain chances
back to 20-30% in the afternoons and evenings, a bit higher to
the south where more moisture is available. Primary storm hazards
will continue to be gusty winds 40-50 mph, locally heavy rainfall
(especially as steering flow breaks down), and frequent cloud to
ground lightning. Dangerous heat returns as high temperatures
creep back to the M-U90s, resulting in widespread Major HeatRisk
impacts, and peak afternoon heat indices approaching 105 again.

Wednesday-Saturday...Extended forecast can be characterized as
typical Florida summer. Aloft, blocking high pressure over the
desert southwest maintaining a broad "troughy" pattern over the
eastern US breaks down late in the week, resulting in zonal mid-
upper level flow. Weak riding over Florida keeps the trough
generally north of the area, but a impulses of vorticity
transiting the pattern could swing overhead at times. At the
surface, the ridge axis of the Atlantic highs remains stationed
over South Florida to the Straits of Florida by low pressure
systems passing to the north through most of the period, possibly
lifting north towards CFL by next weekend. The position of the
ridge axis will continue light to gentle offshore (WSW-SW) flow,
slowing inland progression of the east coast sea breeze, or even
pinning it near the coast, and favoring a sea breeze collision on
the eastern side of the peninsula. Still some variability in
forecast moisture, but overall expect near normal (20-40%) rain
chances each afternoon-evening. Staying very warm with above
normal high temperatures in the L-M90s, and peak afternoon heat
indices over 100. Forecast HeatRisk impacts for this period have
increased a bit in the last 24 hours, now showing closer to an
even split of Major (northern counties to the coast) and Moderate
(southern inland areas), and even a smattering of Extreme through
the latter part of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of
offshore moving lightning storms, as high pressure over the
subtropical Atlantic extending to Florida remains in control. The
ridge axis of the high will keep station over South Florida to
the Straits of Florida, continuing offshore (WSW-SW) flow,
shifting SSE-E from the afternoons into the early over nights
behind the sea breeze. Wind speeds generally 5-10 kts, even
becoming light/variable at times, but occasionally peak to around
15 kts in the overnight periods. Seas 1-2 ft. High chances for
lightning storms continue this afternoon-evening, then chances
decease closer to normal Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Remaining dry with VFR conditions mainly forecast through this
morning. Scattered showers and storms then begin to develop into
the afternoon, with coverage increasing where boundary collisions
occur with the east coast sea breeze closer to the coast. This
activity will then shift offshore and diminish through this
evening. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible,
producing frequent lightning and strong and erratic wind gusts up
to 35-45 knots. Have kept 4-5 hour VCTS windows starting around
18-20Z. Have also added Tempo groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for TAF
sites from the I-4 corridor eastward toward the Volusia and
Brevard coasts where greatest chance for storms will exist into
this afternoon.

W/SW winds increase to 5-7 knots, with the east coast sea breeze
switching winds onshore at the coast, generally out of the E/NE up
to 7-10 knots. Sea breeze/outflow from storms then look to shift
inland through late afternoon/early evening, leading to additional
wind shifts to an onshore direction across the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  93  76 /  60  20  20  10
MCO  93  75  95  76 /  60  20  30  10
MLB  90  76  91  77 /  60  30  20  10
VRB  91  75  92  77 /  40  30  20  10
LEE  92  76  95  77 /  40  20  20   0
SFB  93  75  96  76 /  60  20  30  10
ORL  93  76  95  77 /  60  20  30  10
FPR  91  75  92  76 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion