Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

809
FXUS62 KMLB 051840
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- The typical afternoon convective pattern continues through
  Thursday before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday
  into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas,
  and a greater risk of rip currents.

- Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is
  reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves
  towards east central Florida.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central
  Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Tonight-Thursday...Broad high pressure remains extended towards
the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Persistent cloud coverage
across the area through this morning and early afternoon has
helped limit daytime heating locally, which has in turn led to a
decrease in rain chances across the area. Brought PoPs down to
30-50% through the remainder of today, with both the HRRR and RRFS
trending towards less coverage across east central Florida.
Surface flow remains out of the southeast to east, resulting in
the highest chances being focused across the interior and portions
of the Treasure Coast where onshore-moving activity remains
possible. Storm development is also forecast, with RAP guidance
forecasting MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, DCAPE ranging between
500-700 J/kg, and 500 mb temperatures staying around -8C. Based on
these parameters, storm hazards through this afternoon will
include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and
heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding in some locations and
small hail will also be possible, but confidence remains low at
this time. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the late
evening and overnight hours, with continued isolated to scattered
shower and storm development possible across the Gulf Stream
waters.

Thursday, the surface high is forecast to lift northward, with
the ridge axis well north of Florida. Winds areawide become more
easterly, which will support some light, isolated early morning
onshore-moving showers along the coast. Coverage of showers will
increase through the late morning and afternoon hours as a diffuse
east coast sea breeze moves inland and supports shower and storm
development. PWATs of 1.9-2.2" overspread the area, with PoPs a
touch higher on Thursday at 40-70% compared to today. Guidance
indicates that MLCAPE will exceed 1500 J/kg and DCAPE will range
between 500-800 J/kg, with 500 mb temperatures remaining on the
cooler side between -9C to -8C. Based on these parameters, the
typical summertime storm hazards remain on the table, including
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, heavy
downpours, and small hail. Minor, localized flooding will also
continue to be possible, especially in areas that receive multiple
rounds of showers and storms. Activity will move westward as
supported by persistent east to southeast flow aloft, with
coverage anticipated to diminish into the late evening and
overnight hours. Continued isolated to scattered development
across the Atlantic waters through the overnight hours will be
possible, with a low chance of some activity moving onshore along
the coast.

Temperatures remain on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s
this afternoon, with a similar outlook for Thursday afternoon.
Moisture present across the area will keep conditions muggy, with
peak heat indices of 100-105F possible. Overnight, temperatures
generally in the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough at the surface is
anticipated to lift northward from the Bahamas across the Florida
peninsula late this week into the early weekend. This will bring a
surge of moisture towards the east central Florida area, with
PWATs forecast to exceed 2.1-2.2" areawide. The result will be
above- normal rain chances, with PoPs of 70-80% on Friday and
50-70% on Saturday. Early morning showers across the local waters
and along the coast will spread inland through the late morning
and afternoon hours, aided by persistent southeast to east flow at
the surface and aloft. Guidance indicates that flow aloft will be
sufficient in keeping activity moving, but multiple rounds of
showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding
in some spots. In addition to the rain, scattered storms will also
be possible Friday and Saturday. MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg,
dewpoints exceeding 70F, and 500 mb temperatures of -8C to -7C
will support storm development and frequent lightning strikes with
activity. Additionally, modest DCAPE ranging from 500-900 J/kg
will support some gusty showers and storms, with gusts up to 50
mph possible at times. Showers and storms are anticipated to
diminish into the overnight hours on Friday and again on Saturday,
with the trough lifting northward and away from the area Saturday
evening.

With the greater moisture present across the peninsula, cloud
coverage is anticipated to be higher that normal. This will limit
daytime heating across the area, resulting in afternoon
temperatures remaining near-normal values in the upper 80s to low
90s areawide. Peak heat indices are forecast to still exceed 100F,
ranging from 100-105F. Muggy conditions will continue through the
overnight hours, with lows generally in the mid 70s.

It is important to also note that the passing trough will lead to
an increase of seas across the local Atlantic waters, which will
in turn result in choppier surf. Current indications are that this
will lead to an increasing risk of life-threatening rip currents
at the local beaches, so plan accordingly.

Sunday-Tuesday...Mid-level ridging builds across the Florida
peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters late this weekend into next
week, with the surface Atlantic high gradually shifting southward
once again. The ridge axis will extend across the Florida
peninsula, resulting in lighter winds locally which will allow for
the return of a more diurnal pattern each day through the
extended period. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return
closer to normal values on Sunday and Monday (30-60%), with
chances falling Tuesday onward as drier air aloft moves across the
peninsula and helps limit some convective potential. The return
of the high pressure overhead will allow for some warming across
east central Florida through the extended period, with afternoon
highs near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak
heat indices are overall anticipated to remain between 102-107F,
though there is a low chance of exceeding 108F in some spots, but
confidence remains low at this time. Will closely monitor. Muggy
conditions will continue into the overnight hours each day, with
lows remaining near normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Broad high pressure through Thursday will keep boating conditions
generally favorable, with onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and
seas of 1 to 3 feet forecast locally. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will be possible through the daytime and
nighttime hours. By Friday, the high shifts north as an inverted
trough lifts across the local Atlantic waters from the Bahamas.
The quick pressure change will lead to increasing seas locally,
with seas building to 3 to 5 feet. The highest seas will be
focused across the Gulf Stream, with onshore winds ranging from 10
to 20 knots areawide. A surge of moisture is also anticipated in
conjunction with the lifting inverted trough, resulting in above-
normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to
normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). As the inverted trough exits
the area late Saturday, high pressure is anticipated to
reestablish across the local Atlantic waters from Sunday onward.
Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10
knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into
next week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible through
the extended, though recent trends continue to favor drier
conditions across the local Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Continued mainly VFR outside of storms. Flow turns light onshore
areawide, with initial convective activity across the Treasure
Coast spreading inland this afternoon and early evening affecting
mostly interior TAF sites as the ECSB ventures well into the
interior. TEMPO IFR/MVFR with convection. Light debris rainfall
may persist into late evening. Very moist airmass in place and
with the deep, but light onshore flow we may see occasional
onshore-moving convection overnight into Thu morning. For Thu,
activity could begin early along the coast pushing into the
interior ahead of noon continuing thru the afternoon/early evening
as onshore flow persists (a bit stronger than previous day).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  40  70
MCO  75  89  76  89 /  20  60  30  80
MLB  77  88  78  88 /  20  40  50  70
VRB  76  89  77  89 /  20  50  50  70
LEE  76  89  76  90 /  20  60  20  80
SFB  76  91  77  90 /  20  50  40  70
ORL  76  90  77  90 /  20  60  30  80
FPR  76  88  77  88 /  20  50  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion