Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

442
FXUS62 KMLB 071913
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- High risk of rip currents continues at area beaches this
  weekend, entering the surf is strongly discouraged

- Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible this evening
  across the interior, and again on Sunday afternoon and evening
  along the sea breeze collision

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible Sunday
  into next week, particularly across the interior

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Now-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers are moving west-
northwest this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze treks
inland. Southeast winds are a bit gusty, reaching 20-25 mph at
times, especially at the coast. Shower chances will slowly
transition inland through late afternoon, and a sea breeze
collision is anticipated just west of our area closer to sunset.
Isolated lightning storms that form west of Lake County this
evening will have slow and erratic storm motions, due to light
steering flow aloft. Thus, we are carrying a ~25% chance of rain
along the Lake/Sumter county line through about midnight, in the
event that a shower or storm drifts back east. With that said, a
bulk of the measurable rain should remain west of ECFL this
evening. A warm afternoon gives way to a mild evening as temps
retreat into the 60s overnight. A stray shower or two cannot be
ruled out along the coast after midnight but confidence in any one
location receiving rain is low (15% or less).

Sunday-Sunday Night...Another very warm day is in store to finish
out the weekend (highs in the 80s), and a few locations could
receive an afternoon/early evening cooldown in the form of a shower
or storm. While still light, mid-level steering winds increase to
around 10-15 knots on Sunday. At the surface, the west coast
breeze is forecast to be slightly stronger. As the FL sea breeze
circulation takes shape, CAMs and medium range guidance favor
shower and storm development (generally after 2-3 PM) from the
Volusia and north Brevard coast to the Orlando metro, south toward
Lake Okeechobee. This is farther east compared to today`s sea
breeze collision. 500mb temps around -11C and DCAPE of 850-1000
J/kg could support a marginally strong storm or two with gusty
winds, small hail, and frequent lightning being the main threats.
Low-level lapse rates will be steep as surface temps warm but 0-6
km rates appear marginal at best (5.5-6.0 C/km). Any storm that
manages to organize or strengthen briefly is not likely to last
for very long. Shower and isolated storm activity could linger
through late evening before dissipating before/around midnight.
Temps settle into the 60s again Sunday night, perhaps a degree or
two cooler where rain occurs.

Monday-Friday (modified)...Surface pressure ridging remains near
or across the central FL peninsula for much of this period. Both
the GFS/ECMWF are coming in better line with bringing a cold front
and higher precip chances thru the area on Thu/Thu night. High
pressure to the north will follow the front across the region on
Fri. Leading up to this, ESE surface winds may veer a bit more
SE/S at times and decrease in speed as the pressure gradient
relaxes. This will likely promote a better chance for patchy
(dense) fog development across the area Mon/Tue mornings. Periodic
onshore-moving showers along the coast and an ISOLD aftn/evening
lightning storm cannot be ruled out across the interior, though
PWATs will be modest through Wed. A 20pct or less chance of precip
exists Mon., followed by mostly dry conditions Tue/Wed. If models
remain consistent for Thu, SCT (40-50pct) showers and ISOLD
(aftn/early eve) lightning storms will be possible. A 15-30pct
chance for precip remains in the forecast for now on Fri, but it
will depend on model consistency and whether a clean frontal
passage (scouring out of moisture) occurs from the day before.

Well above normal temperatures continue thru this period. Highs each
day in the L80s at the immediate coast and M-U80s into the interior,
with a 90F reading or two within reach. These temperatures will
flirt with records which run in the U80s to around 90F each of these
days across the interior. Overnight lows will remain mild and
continue generally in the 60s areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions will continue Sunday into
next week as high pressure maintains an influence over the local
Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers and a lightning storm or two
are possible Sunday and Monday (particularly Sunday afternoon and
evening). Wind direction will vary from ESE to SSE with speeds 10-15
knots and occasionally higher gusts. A slight uptick in winds is
forecast Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 3-5 feet (up to 6
feet well offshore) through Monday, decreasing to around 3-4 feet
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Strato-cu producing high-MVFR CIGs have lifted/thinned inland, but
continue to impact coastal terminals from KTIX-KSUA. Gusts ESE
20-25 kts at the coastal terminals and to around 20 kts at inland
terminals continue through around 22Z behind a diffuse east coast
sea breeze. ISO-SCT SHRA and ISO TSRA have developed across
inland areas and over parts of the Atlantic waters, and many TAFs
had VCSH adjusted or added, but greatest impacts from TSRA later
this evening still forecast to remain well west of most ECFL
terminals. Through 04Z there is a low chance (around 20%) for an
ISO TSRA to push back towards KLEE. Can`t completely rule out a
cell or two reaching back towards KMCO/KISM, but direct impacts
are not expected. Tonight, environment is slightly more favorable
for fog/stratus development along and north of I-4 than previous
nights, but confidence remains lower than normal. Introduced a
non-committal SCT015 and BCFG to KMCO and other northern
terminals from around 09Z-15Z. Winds become more SE and a little
lighter Sunday, shifting the sea breeze collision over the the
central/eastern side of the peninsula, increasing chances for TSRA
impacts at KMCO/northern terminals after 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  84  63  83 /  10  30  30  20
MCO  66  86  66  88 /  20  30  30  20
MLB  66  83  65  83 /  20  20  30  20
VRB  66  83  64  83 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  65  86  65  86 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  65  87  65  87 /  10  30  30  20
ORL  66  86  67  87 /  20  30  30  20
FPR  64  83  63  83 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion