Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

379
FXUS62 KMLB 171058
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
658 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue this week with Moderate to
  Major Heat Risk for all of East Central Florida. Residents and
  visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the
  shade or A/C during the heat of the day.

- Lower storm coverage is forecast Wednesday then storm coverage
  will increase into late week. Scattered to numerous storms from
  Thursday onward will move toward the Atlantic coast each
  afternoon and evening, with the potential for a few strong
  storms. An increase in strong storm potential exists on Friday
  and into the weekend.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches into late week. Always swim
  near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today-Thursday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry weather across
east central Florida except for a few isolated showers over the
offshore waters from Brevard county southward. GOES-16 satellite
imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. Analysis charts shows the western Atlantic ridge
extended over southern Florida. Temperatures are currently in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees with dew points generally in the mid
70s. Drier conditions are forecast today compared to the past few
days, however, guidance indicates PWATs as high as 1.8"-2.5" with
forcing being the limiting factor today. Scattered showers and
lightning are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as
the east coast sea breeze converges with west-southwest flow, as well
as outflow from previous storms near the coast this afternoon and
evening. The east coast sea breeze will strengthen slightly and push
further inland on Thursday as a shortwave trough tracks east over
the southeastern US and the western Atlantic ridge shifts southeast.
The result is an increase in rain shower (40-70%) and lighting storm
chances on Thursday areawide across east central Florida, especially
for areas along and east of the Orlando Metro. West-southwest winds
at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph are forecast to back south-southeast
with the east coast sea breeze, mainly near the coast on
Wednesday before pushing further inland on Thursday.

The main hazards with strong storms will be frequent lightning, wind
gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" with a 2-5% chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3").  Afternoon highs will be
in the mid to upper 90s today and the mid 90s on Thursday with
maximum heat index values between 102-107F degrees. Above normal (2-
5 F+) to near record  low temperatures are forecast. There is a
Moderate to Major HeatRisk each day. There is an Extreme HeatRisk
for portions of the Orlando Metro and Brevard county on Thursday. A
Major and Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling
and hydration! Remember to stay hydrated, wear light colored
clothing, shift outdoor work away from 10am to 4pm, and take
frequent breaks from the heat.

Friday-Sunday...  The western Atlantic ridge will shift further east
over the western Atlantic as a shortwave trough tracks over the
southeastern US and the southwest Atlantic into Friday afternoon and
evening. Guidance shows upper level perturbations pivoting along
the base of the trough over northern east central Florida on Friday,
especially into the afternoon and evening hours which will provide
additional lift for strong storms to develop. Meanwhile, a "cool"
front is forecast to sag south over northern Florida and northern
east central Florida Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Isolated
to scattered strong storms are forecast Friday afternoon and evening
with guidance indicating MUCAPE between 2,000 J/kg-3,800 J/kg, bulk
shear between 15-30kts, and PWATs between 1.9"-2.3", coupled with
PVA lobes over northern east central Florida. Scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the
afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland,
mainly to the east of the Orlando Metro and converges with west-
southwest flow, as well as outflow from previous storms. Rain shower
(60-90%) and lightning storm chances increase on Saturday before
decreasing slightly on Sunday (40-70%).

The main hazards with strong storms will be frequent to excessive
lightning, wind gusts up to 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall (1-2" with
a 2-5% chance of rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 4").
Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with lows in the
mid to upper 70s. Heat index values between 102-107F degrees and a
Major HeatRisk is forecast with an Extreme HeatRisk for portions of
the Orlando Metro and Brevard county on Friday.

Monday-Tuesday... Drier conditions are forecast into next week as
high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf of America.
Scattered showers (30-40/50%) and lightning storms are forecast
into each afternoon as a weak east coast sea breeze moves inland
and converges with weak west-southwest flow. Above normal (2-5F+)
temperatures are expected to continue into next week with a Major
HeatRisk.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today-Thursday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with
the western Atlantic ridge extended over southern
Florida. Scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning
storms (some of which will have the potential to become
strong) are forecast today with isolated to scattered coverage,
mainly north of Brevard county on Thursday. West-southwest winds
are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon at
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas of 1-2ft with up to 3ft
offshore are expected.

Friday-Sunday... Favorable boating conditions are expected.
Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast into Friday and Saturday afternoon
and evening. The potential for a few strong storms exists.
Southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are expected to
generally back south on Friday and Saturday before veering west-
northwest and then east-southeast into Sunday as a "cool" front
sags across the waters. Seas to 1-2ft with up to 3 ft offshore are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

SW winds around 5 knots pick up to around 10 knots after 14Z
areawide. The ECSB will develop, causing winds to become more SSE
along the coast. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible at VRB, FPR,
and SUA. Shower and storm chances increase through the afternoon
hours, with VCTS starting around 18Z near LEE and expanding
eastward through 20Z. No TEMPOs at this time due to isolated to
scattered nature of coverage today and lower confidence on where
storm coverage will be greatest. Activity will move offshore after
00Z, with light and variable winds anticipated overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  77  93  77 /  40  20  70  30
MCO  98  77  96  77 /  40  20  60  30
MLB  94  78  92  79 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  94  77  94  78 /  30  30  50  20
LEE  94  78  94  78 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  96  78  96  77 /  40  20  70  40
ORL  96  78  96  78 /  40  10  60  30
FPR  94  76  94  77 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion