Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

442
FXUS62 KMLB 131254
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
854 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 854 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

- Can`t rule out some isolated showers today, mainly in the
  afternoon, but for most no rain chances.

- Dry and increasingly warm through the week, with areawide highs
  in the 90s by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Surface visibility has shown significant improvements since
sunrise as spots of lingering fog and stratus continue to lift.
GOES-19 PWAT analysis indicates a narrow strip of dry air across
the area (PWAT ~ 0.7-0.8") this morning. A subtle recovery of
moisture (PWAT ~ 1-1.2") is expected through the day, advecting
from the north and west. CAMs suggest this could be enough to
kickstart a few diurnal showers across portions of the north this
afternoon. The shallow moisture layer and the presence of an
inversion above 850-700 mb should generally limit any lightning
potential. A warming trend starts today with highs reaching the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Today-Tonight...Very low clouds and patchy dense fog associated
with the residual frontal boundary are causing visibility
reductions to less than 1 mile at times early this morning, which
is expected to continue into the early morning commute. If
encountering dense fog on the roads, slow down, increase following
distance, and don`t use high-beam headlights. Fog and low clouds
expected to push offshore with the boundary or mix out shortly
after sunrise. Fairly quiet weather-wise the rest of the day as
drier air filters in and weak high pressure builds over Central
Florida behind the front. A gentle westerly breeze will pin the
east coast sea breeze near the coast while pushing a diffuse west
coast sea breeze across the state, either of which could spark a
shower here or there in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
near to slightly below normal.

Wednesday-Thursday...Ridging aloft builds into the Gulf from
Texas-Mexico, while weak surface high pressure meanders over
Florida a bit. Generally westerly flow and increasing subsidence
sets the stage for dry conditions and gradually increasing daytime
temperatures for East Central Florida. Highs Wednesday near
normal in the M-U80s increase to above normal in the U80s-L90s
Thursday. Westerly flow keeps the sea breeze pinned near the
coast, meaning the coastal corridor will also partake in the warm
conditions. Some inland areas could see Moderate HeatRisk impacts
by Thursday.

Friday-Monday...Hot. Ridging aloft builds across the Gulf and over
Florida, with very good model agreement the ridge will remain in
place through the first half of next week, continuing dry
conditions and well above normal temperatures. Whether we reach
record heat is still uncertain. One factor against is pretty high
confidence the center of the mid-level high, and greatest
subsidence, will remain over the Gulf. A question mark is how
the surface high will evolve, and whether a weak center can be
maintained (lighter winds and higher chances for near record), or
it is overshadowed by the ridge axis of the Atlantic high (more
mixing and lower chances for near record). Current forecast
generally tops out in the M90s, a few degrees short of records.
Moderate HeatRisk impacts expected across most of the area by the
weekend. No mentionable rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Today-Saturday...Generally favorable boating conditions. Starting
to look like the doldrums as weak high pressure builds over
Florida and the local Atlantic waters behind a cold front
departing the area this morning, with high pressure remaining in
control of conditions through the weekend. Background winds from
the W-SW at 5-10 kts shift to the SSE-SE and increase to 10-15 kts
in the afternoons and evenings with the sea breeze circulation.
Seas 2-4 ft today subside to 2-3 ft Wednesday, and 1-3 ft Thursday
through at least the weekend. A few showers and lightning storms
remain possible today and tonight, mainly in the Treasure Coast
waters and Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Current IFR/LIFR conditions around east central Florida are
forecast to return to VFR by 13-14Z. Then, VFR prevailing through
the TAF period, with VCSH possible (low confidence) near and
north of ISM/MCO/TIX this afternoon. Isolated TS cannot be ruled
out in stronger storms, but dry air aloft should hinder most
development of even RA. SW winds 8-12kts will back S along the
coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  66  87  67 /  20   0  10   0
MCO  85  67  87  69 /  20   0  10   0
MLB  86  68  85  70 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  87  66  86  68 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  84  68  88  68 /  20   0  10   0
SFB  87  67  89  68 /  20   0  10   0
ORL  86  68  88  70 /  20   0  10   0
FPR  87  66  86  68 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion