Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

630
FXUS62 KMLB 132346
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

- A cold front is expected this evening which will bring the
  coldest temperatures yet this season, especially early Saturday
  and Sunday mornings over the interior with wind chills in the
  lower to mid-40s forecast

- The next chance for rainfall will be early to mid-week next
  week. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty
  in the forecast; at least minor coastal/marine impacts appear
  increasingly likely mid to late week

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over
  previous weeks. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy
  rainfall along the coast next week. The latest river forecasts
  are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across
east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local
observations indicate clear skies north of the Treasure Coast, as
well as Okeechobee county with partly sunny skies across the
aforementioned areas. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid
70s. Dew points are in the low 40s to low 50s north of Melbourne to
Lake Kissimmee and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south. Winds are
west to northwest at 5-12mph with gusts up to 15-22mph. Colder air
is expected into the weekend as the main cold front moves east-
southeast across east central Florida tonight. Lows in the mid 40s
to mid 50s are expected. Minimum apparent temperatures in low 40s to
mid 50s are forecast north and west of Martin county inland, as well
as near the coast along and north of Titusville. There is a 10-50%
chance of minimum apparent temperatures to 40F degrees or below
across portions of Lake county, 0-40% across portions of Orange
county, as well as Volusia county, in addition to 0-30% across
Seminole and 0-25% across Osceola county. The maximum time period
for apparent temperatures at or below 40F degrees will be 1-2
hours (if they occur).

The Weekend... The dry weather is expected to continue as
expansive high pressure (~1026mb-1032mb) builds to the north over
the central CONUS on Saturday and the Ohio Valley on Sunday. North
winds at 6-12mph with gusts up to 20mph on Saturday are forecast
to shift northeast on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast
with highs in the low 60s to around 70F (~1-4+ below normal
degrees) forecast to increase slightly on Sunday into the low to
upper 70s. Low temperatures in the low to upper 40s are forecast
north of I-4 with the upper 40s to mid 50s to the south. Expect
similar apparent temperatures and probabilities for apparent
temperatures to Friday night for Saturday night.

Monday-Thursday... There is a great deal of uncertainty in the
long term forecast with deterministic models, as well as the
LREF-ensemble clusters diverging with multiple potential
solutions that would result in a different forecast for east
central Florida. Guidance is in fairly good agreement until
Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless, high pressure is expected to
build to the north over the eastern CONUS with a gradual increase
in temperatures and precipitation chances expected into the
workweek as onshore flow develops. Winds are expected to become
breezy from the northeast on Monday before becoming breezy to
windy on Thursday. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty
in the forecast, there is also the potential for coastal impacts
with persistent onshore flow in place, especially mid to late
week. Moisture increases on Tuesday with isolated to scattered
(~20-50% chance) onshore moving showers with scattered to numerous
showers and a low chance for lightning storms mid to late week.
Seasonable to below normal temperatures are forecast on Monday
with likely seasonable to above normal temperatures into late
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... Boating conditions are forecast to become
poor to hazardous as a secondary cold front moves east-southeast
across the east central Florida Atlantic waters. Northwest winds
at 15-25kts with gusts to 25kts+ are forecast. Expect seas to
2-4ft nearshore and 4-6ft offshore (20-60nm).

Saturday-Tuesday... Boating continues will be poor to hazardous to
begin the forecast period before improving for a short period of
time into Sunday and then deteriorate on Monday. Dry weather is
expected before rain chances increase Monday into Tuesday. North
winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts are forecast to shift
northeast on Sunday with onshore flow expected into the workweek
with winds to 20-30kts. Seas to 2-4ft nearshore and 4-6ft offshore
(20-60nm) decrease to 2-4ft Sunday before increasing to 3-5ft
with up to 6-7ft offshore on Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions forecast tonight into Saturday. Clear to mostly
clear skies forecast as another reinforcing cold front moves
through the area into tonight, with no additional cloud cover or
rainfall expected with this boundary. W/NW winds around 7-10
knots tonight will become N/NW up to 8-12 knots into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva
(GENF1), Sanford (SNFF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The
river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage with a slow rise
forecast. The other points are within or forecast to reach Minor
to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued
twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in
collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next
week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the
forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any
implications for ongoing flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  64  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  65  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  52  67  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  52  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  46  64  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  48  64  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  51  68  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion