Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

936
FXUS62 KMLB 171809
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Much colder temperatures return! Expect lowest wind chills in
  the mid 30s to low 40s over the interior and Volusia coast on
  Wednesday morning. Highs will struggle to reach the upper 50s to
  low 60s this afternoon.

- There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at our
  beaches today. Poor to hazardous boating conditions also
  persist.

- Expect a slow warming trend later this week, with highs
  returning to the 80s by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Current-Tonight-Wed...Post frontal conditions today with the
former boundary across the Bahamas/FL Straits. Northerly winds
10-15 mph with some higher gusts and much cooler/drier air
filtering down the peninsula will make for a fire-sensitve day.
High pressure will build into the Deep South and along the eastern
Seaboard over the next 24 hours. Our afternoon max temps will
struggle into the U50s at the Volusia coast with generally near
60F to L60s most everywhere else. Generally drier conditions, but
may see a stray shower or two near Melbourne southward thru the
day. An ISOLD shower cannot be ruled out along the Treasure Coast
tonight into Wed. Greatest chance to see sunshine this afternoon
along/north of I-4, with generally a blanket of cloud-cover
southward for many. We should see more in the way of sunshine on
Wed over a larger portion of ECFL.

Overnight lows in the U30s to L40s (rural) near/north of I-4, with L-
M40s extending toward the Volusia coast and southward to Lake
Okee. Some M-U40s for interior Brevard/Treasure coasts and mainly
near 50 to L50s southward along the coast and perhaps M-U50s for
coastal Martin County. NW/N winds this evening/overnight will
average 5-10 mph. Lowest wind chills late overnight into early Wed
morning in the M-U30s N/W of I-4 and to the Volusia coast, with
L40s south through Okeechobee County and interior reaches of
Brevard. M40s to L50s for wind chills across coastal Brevard and
southward through the Treasure Coast. While there may be some
patchy frost across normally cooler wind-sheltered interior
locations overnight/early Wed morning, it is not included in the
grids/zones.

Max temps on Wed remain below seasonal, but we do warm back into the
U60s to around 70F for most areas, except M60s for coastal Volusia.
Gradual improvement into Wed night with U40s to L50s over much of
the interior/Volusia coast and M-U50s for the Brevard coast and
perhaps L60s for coastal Martin County.

Beach-goers should stay out of the Atlantic this afternoon due to
numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents and a southward-
flowing longshore current. The rip current risk will likely remain
high into Wednesday.

Thu-Fri...The pressure gradient remains a bit tight with the
former frontal boundary to the south and high pressure building
into the area. NNW-NNE winds will increase to 10-15 mph each day
(highest along the coast) with a few higher gusts. These northerly
winds will decrease to 5-10 mph during the evening. Enough
moisture may still linger allowing for an ISOLD shower along the
Space/Treasure coasts each day, but any amounts will be light and
conditions will be mainly dry overall. Temperatures continue to
rebound slowly upward with highs in the L70s on Thu (U60s coastal
Volusia) and L-M70s on Fri, though these values still remain just
below climo. Overnight mins still in the U40s to M50s across much
of the area - perhaps a little higher along the immediate south
Brevard/Treasure coasts.

Previous Forecast Discussion Modified...

Weekend-Early Next Week...Weak high pressure settles over Florida
through the weekend. Medium range models push a weak front across
the area Mon overnight into Tue. This may increase winds off of
the Atlc beginning on Tue. Otherwise, mostly pleasant conditions
with plentiful sunshine. U70s at the coast with L-M80s inland are
forecast through at least Mon. Temps may cool a bit on Tue with a
few rain showers accompanying the latest wind surge.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue into this evening as
northerly winds oppose the northward-flowing Gulf Stream creating
choppy, short period seas. High pressure builds into the region
behind the most recent cold front. Winds veer slightly onshore on
Wed (NNE/NE) with a general northerly component continuing into
early Sat. Wind speeds will hover near Cautionary criteria
periodically thru late week. The pressure gradient remains fairly
tight, but relaxes a bit this weekend with weak high pressure
settling across the local waters. Seas 4-5 ft near shore building
6-9 ft offshore gradually subside to 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream by
daybreak Wed morning. On Wed, seas still around 4 ft nears shore,
up to 6 ft (perhaps 7 ft south of the Cape) in the Gulf Stream.
Fresh onshore breezes may cause 7 ft seas to return to the Gulf
Stream on Thu/early Fri. Seas finally fall back to 3-5 ft into
Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Satellite imagery shows skies clearing near and north of the
greater Orlando terminals while cloud cover currently persists
from TIX southward. Despite cloudiness across southern portions
of the area, CIGs remain mostly VFR, only keeping MVFR at SUA.
Gusty north winds will continue to ease into late afternoon and
the evening, with speeds around 5-8 kts overnight. Mostly dry with
low confidence for a few sprinkles along the Treasure Coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Brisk, drier air punches southward into Central Florida this
afternoon and tonight behind the most recent cold front. With
north winds around 10-15 mph, min RH values fall to 30-35% along
and northwest of I-4 this afternoon. Fire-sensitive conditions are
expected over this area. This general vicinity will also have the
lowest RH values on Wednesday afternoon, 35-40%. Winds on
Wednesday turn northeasterly, 8-12 mph. Some RH recovery is
forecast on Thursday.

As temperatures turn warmer, RH minima will trend lower from Friday
through the weekend, ranging from 30-40% over much of the interior.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Cool high records below for Tuesday (today), March 17th:

             RECORD
     DATE    COOL MAX
DAB  17-Mar  59 1962
LEE  17-Mar  59 1959
SFB  17-Mar  61 1954
MCO  17-Mar  61 1901
MLB  17-Mar  61 1988
VRB  17-Mar  63 1962
FPR  17-Mar  60 1916

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  66  52  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  44  68  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  48  70  56  72 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  51  71  57  73 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  40  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  43  69  51  71 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  44  69  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  71  55  74 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion