Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

519
FXUS62 KMLB 071059
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
659 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Scattered showers and storms continue today, becoming locally
  numerous in coverage along the sea breeze collision. A few
  strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes,
  localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall.

- Drier air begins to build mid week, reducing rain chances
  Wednesday and especially on Thursday.

- A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with
  temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the
  interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety,
  please visit heat.gov.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today-Wednesday... A weak surface boundary slowly sinks through the
eastern U.S. as low pressure moves moves offshore the mid Atlantic
coast. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic and over
the south-central Florida peninsula holds in place keeping the
surface boundary well north of the area. A persistent pattern of
light south to southwest flow continues to favor an earlier west
coast sea breeze and a collision across the eastern side of the
peninsula. One more day of scattered to locally numerous showers and
storms (PoP ~40-60%) is forecast today before drier air begins to
cut back PoPs (20-40%) into Wednesday. Overall the storm environment
remains similar to early this week with modeled 500 mb temperatures
around -7C to -8C, high surface instability, and weak shear.
Isolated stronger storms along boundary collisions will be capable
of frequent lighting strikes and wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Minor
flooding of urban and low lying areas remains a hazard in slow
moving or stationary storms. Slightly above normal temperatures are
forecast outside of storms today, mostly spreading the low to mid
90s. With lower storm coverage on Wednesday, temperatures increase a
few degrees, more widely ranging the mid 90s across the interior and
low to mid 90s along the coast. Current ensemble probabilities may
even suggest a medium chance (40-50%) for inland areas north of
Leesburg and Sanford to reach the upper 90s on Wednesday. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before
you lock!

Thursday-Monday... Waves of drier air are forecast Thursday and into
early this weekend as the next plume of Saharan Dust passes over
the region. Conditions remain mostly dry on Thursday with only a
thin ribbon of deeper moisture supporting low rain chances north
of I-4. The next localized band of higher moisture could bring
rain chances in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee on Friday before
widely scattered showers and storms return areawide Saturday and
into early next week. As we transition to a generally drier period
than what has been seen recently, a building mid level ridge and
increasing subsidence over the region will shift the greatest
forecast emphasis towards a period of above normal temperatures.
By Thursday and through the weekend, inland locations near and
north of I-4 are forecast to widely spread the upper 90s. Further
south, hot temperatures in the mid 90s are forecast while the
coast may range the low to mid 90s each day. A building widespread
Major HeatRisk becomes locally Extreme through portions of the
I-4 corridor, impacting those without adequate cooling and
hydration. As ridging amplifies over the central U.S. late this
weekend and into early next week, a mid to upper level trough digs
into the southeast U.S., and temperatures gradually fall a few
degrees by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure continues to maintain favorable boating conditions
across the local Atlantic waters this week. Light southerly flow
persists, shifting onshore (southeast) as the sea breeze develops
each afternoon. Southwest winds increase 10-15 kts across the
open Atlantic each evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-2 ft build
to become more widely 2-3 ft by Thursday. Scattered coverage of
offshore moving lightning storms is forecast this afternoon and
evening, before drier air reduces rain chances mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 658 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/storms. Light and
variable winds are forecast to increase from the SW at 5-10kts
before backing SE at the coastal TAFs into the afternoon. VCTS is
forecast after 17Z/18Z with PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA into the
aftn/even before rain chances diminish into the late evening
hours. The potential exists for a few strong storms across ECFL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  77  94  77 /  50  10  20  10
MCO  94  77  95  78 /  50  30  40  10
MLB  91  77  91  78 /  50  20  30   0
VRB  91  76  92  77 /  40  20  10   0
LEE  93  78  95  79 /  40  10  30  10
SFB  95  77  96  78 /  50  20  30  10
ORL  93  78  94  79 /  50  30  40  10
FPR  91  75  91  77 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Fehling

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion