Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

089
FXUS62 KMLB 111827
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
227 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions, including life-
  threatening rip currents, continue through the weekend even as
  surf appears to improve.

- Isolated onshore moving showers remain possible this afternoon,
  mainly south of Melbourne. Otherwise dry conditions.

- Warm and dry next week as high pressure builds over East Central
  Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today-tonight... Upper level high pressure across the Gulf will
slowly shift eastward towards the Florida peninsula today. Surface
high pressure centered over the Deep south with the axis extending
over the Florida peninsula will steadily shift eastward towards the
eastern seaboard and the western Atlantic as it gets reinforced by
an additional surface high from the northern US. Locally, east to
northeast winds will prevail with breezy conditions developing in
the afternoon (gusts of 20-25 mph) as the east coast sea breeze
forms and pushes inland. Moisture will continue to decrease slightly
over the local area from previous days, with forecast PW values of
0.6-0.8" this afternoon. This will support isolated onshore-moving
showers today (rain chances 20 percent or less), mainly from just
south of Cape Canaveral southward (in the relatively higher
moisture), as well as across the far north (from around Daytona to
Leesburg). Due to the significant dry layer in the mid levels, any
showers that do form will be shallow topped. Thus, lightning storms
are not forecast. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast.
Slightly warmer today, with afternoon highs in upper 70s to low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Poor to hazardous marine/boating conditions continue today. Along
with that, the surf will appear more inviting than previous days,
but numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents will continue
to be present at all area beaches today. Thus, entering the surf is
not advised.

Sunday-Monday... Upper level high pressure across the Gulf will
slowly shift eastward over the Florida peninsula on Sunday and
remain in place on Monday. The aforementioned surface high pressure
over the eastern seaboard will push off the coast and into the
western Atlantic on Sunday and continue to shift seaward on Monday
as a low pressure system moves across the northern US and southern
Canada. The ridge axis will remain in place across the Florida
peninsula as well as the Deep South/western Atlantic through the
period. This will result in easterly flow with breezy conditions
each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland,
although Monday will be slightly less breezy than Sunday. Winds
overnight will become lighter as the ridge moves overhead, resulting
in late night/early morning fog potential rising, especially if the
wind becomes calm.

Forecast PWATs show moisture is decreasing over the area, with
values of 0.5-0.7" through Monday. This decrease in moisture
combined with subsidence from the high pressure above will result in
mostly dry conditions (rain chances 10 percent or less) across ECFL.
The gradual warming trend continues with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday, and upper 70s to mid 80s on
Monday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. A High
risk of rip currents will continue through at least Sunday.

Tuesday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure will continue to build
over the Gulf and over the Florida peninsula through the period as a
trough across the western US/Great Plains region begins to flatten
once again as it shifts eastward towards the Midwest and then
offshore the eastern US into mid week. Another trough will develop
and deepen over the western US into late week as it shifts eastward
towards the Midwest into the weekend. Surface high pressure offshore
the Carolina coast on Monday will gradually shift southward through
the period with the ridge axis remaining over the Florida peninsula.
A surface front across the Midwest extending towards TX that is
associated with the second trough (late week) will shift east and
southward towards the Florida peninsula into the weekend. However,
the trough and the front will likely remain north of the area due to
insufficient forcing. Will continue to monitor trends with that
system. The drier air, forecast PW values remaining less than 1.0",
coupled with light onshore flow and subsidence, will yield very low
(10% or less) rain chances through the period. However, the southern
portion of the CWA could see some low rain chances return on
Saturday if the winds shift southeasterly and moisture increases
across the area. But for now, rain chances are 10% or less. The
warming trend continues, with afternoon highs ranging from low to
mid 80s on Tuesday, to mid 80s to low 90s on Saturday. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today-Monday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist
across the central Florida Atlantic into early next week. High
pressure continuing to build over the eastern seaboard and western
Atlantic will slacken the pressure gradient and maintains east to
northeast winds at 10-20 KT through Sunday, with the highest winds
from Cape Canaveral southward. Winds then diminish further on Monday,
with speeds at 10-15 KT. Seas 5-7ft today will subside to 4-6ft on
Monday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all the offshore
waters as well as the nearshore Treasure Coast waters this afternoon
for 7ft seas. Have continued to be able to pair back parts of the
Small Craft Advisory, with the Brevard nearshore waters ending at 10
AM this morning, and the Volusia offshore waters will be dropping
off at 4 PM this afternoon. Small craft should continue to exercise
caution in those waters for seas up to 6 ft. The remaining waters in
the SCA will continue through at least 8 AM Monday. Isolated onshore
moving showers possible today, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward.
Otherwise, mostly dry.

Tuesday-Thursday... Improving boating conditions High pressure
shifts into the subtropical Atlantic while the ridge axis remains
pinned over the Florida peninsula. This will allow the pressure
gradient to further loosen, resulting in easterly winds becoming
mostly 5-15 KT with occasional pushes towards 15-20 KT south of
the Cape. Seas 3-5 ft Tuesday, and 2-4 ft on Wednesday and
Thursday. Mostly dry conditions forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. High pressure over the area will
maintain winds 10-15 kts generally from 14-0Z today and again
Sunday, with gusts 20-25 kts, especially along the coast. Winds
slacken overnight, but remain breezy along the coast from MLB
southward. Mostly dry, with just a few light showers through this
evening drifting onshore along the Treasure Coast. Coverage is
expected to remain low enough to be handled with VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  79  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  62  81  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  78  67  79 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  64  79  65  79 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  82  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  61  82  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  79  64  80 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion