Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

627
FXUS62 KMLB 010808
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
408 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- Unseasonably hot again today while remaining mostly dry. A
  HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at the beaches.

- Hot and windy on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
  Near record highs in the low to mid 90s, including the coast.
  Frequent wind gusts 30-35 mph will produce very sensitive fire
  weather conditions and widespread Moderate HeatRisk.

- A chance for strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and
  evening with potential for damaging winds, hail and a tornado or
  two.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today...Stationary front draped across north FL and low level
ridge axis to our south will continue to produce an offshore
(W/SW) flow. Not as tight of a pressure gradient will allow the
sea breeze to form earlier and push farther inland than yesterday.
Still, unseasonably warm with max temps in the lower 90s inland
and upper 80s coast. Mainly dry with only isolated showers
possible as the sea breeze pushes inland across the north. A
Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will exist affecting those who are
sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and hydration.

At area beaches, a HIGH risk of rip currents exists, again,
today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and
signs.

Sat...Pressure gradient tightens Sat as sfc pressures fall along
the frontal boundary ahead of a sharpening long wave eastern CONUS
trough. Strong and gusty WSW winds will develop by late morning
and into the afternoon. Sustained 20 mph with frequent gusts of
30-35 mph will be close to wind advisory criteria. With no chance
of a sea breeze, max temps will soar into the mid 90s esp along
the Space and Treasure coasts resulting in near record highs
there. An increase in clouds and rain chances in the aftn may
hold maxes to the lower 90s in Lake/Volusia. A more widespread
Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with a chance for Major HeatRisk for
the Space and Treasure coasts.

With the already very dry conditions across EC FL, hot
temperatures, low RH and strong/gusty winds will create very
sensitive fire weather conditions prior to any rain/storms.
Lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a day or
two before flaring up.

CAM guidance are in agreement showing a faster convective
evolution with a potential linear convective line reaching
northern counties in the mid afternoon, coincident with near peak
heating, reaching Orlando metro/Cape in the early evening.
Increased moisture (PWAT 1.70-2.00") will combine with cool mid
levels (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE
~1000 J/kg) and most notably strong upper level shear 50-70 knots
to produce a risk of strong to severe storms Sat aftn and eve
mainly Brevard/Osceola northward. The best chance for damaging
winds and large hail (5-14%) will be across north Lake/Volusia
counties where SPC has a Slight risk (level 2/5) with a Marginal
risk (level 1/5) to the south. Areas from Osceola/Brevard counties
northward will have a 2-4% chance for a tornado. Convection is
forecast to weaken after sunset as it pushes southward into
Okeechobee/Treasure coast.

Sun...The cold front will slow as it reaches south FL. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms ongoing from the overnight will
shift southward. A heavy rain threat may evolve Sun across
southern sections (Okeechobee/ Treasure coast) where PWATs pool
around 2.0". But it is possible this threat will focus more across
SE FL. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the threat
for strong/severe storms. North winds behind the front will
produce noticeably cooler temps in the mid to upper 70s with
partial clearing spreading southward as drier air advects in.
Despite the high rain chances this weekend, rainfall is forecast
to only bring limited drought relief.

Mon-Thu...Elongated surface high pressure extends from the Gulf
Coast States across the Southeast U.S., while wedged between the
former quasi-stationary front over south FL/FL Straits, and
another frontal boundary strewn across the ERN CONUS. High
pressure gradually weakens into mid-week getting pulled seaward
into the WRN Atlc. Residual moisture from the nearly stalled front
over south FL keeps low afternoon rain/lightning storm chances
(20%) in the forecast, generally Martin county Mon. The next front
approaches Thu with a chance for showers/storms in the aftn. Temps
near seasonal Mon with afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s, then
quickly warming back up to the mid to upper 80s Tue and Upper
80s/low 90s Wed/Thu. Onshore (E/SE) winds become gusty in the
afternoons behind the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions. A stationary front
remains draped across north Florida, with the low level ridge axis
across south FL. Offshore winds 5-15 kts initially this morning
should decrease and allow an earlier onset of the sea breeze near
the coast compared to yesterday. SE winds assocd with the sea breeze
will be 10-15 knots with some higher gusts. Seas 2-3 FT with
offshore seas subsiding below 4 FT by afternoon. A nocturnal surge
of S/SW winds 15-20 kts south of the Cape tonight may prompt a
Caution headline offshore.

Sat-Tue...Boating conditions deteriorate as a cold front approaches
Saturday then slowly pushes through Florida and the local Atlantic
waters Saturday night through Sunday. Southwest winds 10-15 kts
Saturday morning increase 15-20 kts, with a period of near 20 kts
offshore in the afternoon ahead of the front. Wind shift out of the
north Saturday night and Sunday behind the front, then out of the
northeast Sunday night/Monday as elongated high pressure to the
north builds over the area. Wind speeds 15-20 knots behind the front
decreasing 10-15 knots Monday. Winds veer East on Tue around 10
knots Tue as ridge axis approaches the area. Seas build 4-5 FT
offshore Sat then expand nearshore Sunday with 6 FT in the Gulf
Stream. Seas begin to subside Mon at 3-4 FT but holding 5-6 FT in
the Gulf Stream south of the Cape. Then 3-4 FT Tue.  Scattered to
numerous showers and lightning storms (chances up to 70%) will
accompany the frontal passage late Saturday into Sunday, decreasing
Sunday night, with isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances
20-30%) remaining possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at ECFL terminals through the TAF period.
Some models continue to hint at TEMPO MVFR-IFR conditions from
patchy fog/stratus at inland terminals 09Z-13Z, but still not
enough agreement or high enough chances (20% or less) to include
in the TAFs. Dry conditions continue through early Saturday
morning, with only low SHRA chances (20% or less) INVOF KDAB this
afternoon/evening. Light W-SW winds tonight shift SW at 5-10 kts
tomorrow afternoon. The east coast sea breeze develops after 17Z,
switching winds at coastal terminals to E-SE at 8-13 kts, with
occasionally higher gusts at KVRB-KSUA. Winds diminish after 00Z.
Once again have a subset of models indicating fog/stratus at
northern terminals late Friday night into Saturday morning. Windy
and gusty conditions Saturday ahead of a front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Hot and mostly dry conditions again today. Isolated showers will be
limited to areas north and east of Orlando. A little weaker west-
southwest flow should allow the east coast sea breeze to develop
and push farther inland than yesterday. MinRH values will fall
35-45% this afternoon especially over the interior. Very Good to
Excellent afternoon dispersion is forecast over the interior
today, generally Good along the coast.

On Saturday, west-southwest winds increase 15-20 mph with gusts 30-
35 mph which will produce rapid spread of any new or existing
fires. Hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s even at the coast will
combine to produce min RH values near 35% south of Orlando,
producing a very sensitive fire weather day. A Red Flag Warning may
be needed for portions of the area Saturday. An approaching cold
front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much of
the area beginning late Saturday across the north, spreading
southward Saturday night and Sunday. Lightning strikes this
weekend will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today and Saturday:

Site     May 1       May 2
DAB    94 (2002)   95 (1953)
LEE    94 (2017)   95 (1990)
SFB    95 (2017)   94 (2010)
MCO    96 (1917)   97 (1906)
MLB    94 (2002)   95 (2002)
VRB    96 (1971)   94 (2002)
FPR    93 (2002)   95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  68  91  61 /  10   0  40  70
MCO  93  68  94  64 /  10   0  30  70
MLB  88  69  93  66 /   0   0  20  70
VRB  90  68  94  68 /   0   0  10  60
LEE  91  68  90  61 /  10   0  50  70
SFB  93  68  93  63 /  10   0  40  70
ORL  93  70  92  64 /  10   0  30  70
FPR  90  67  94  67 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion