Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

527
FXUS62 KMLB 202023
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
323 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Unseasonably warm today and Saturday with near record highs in
  the mid to upper 80s.

- A HIGH risk of life threatening rip currents continues today.
  Always swim near a life-guarded beach and never enter the water
  alone.

- A strong cold front will bring medium (40-50pct) rain chances
  Sunday followed by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical
  fire weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon for
  northern sections and will develop areawide Monday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with
  frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon
  night/Tue morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today-Saturday... Upper level high pressure near the Bahamas and
expanding over the Florida peninsula will stay in place through
Saturday. Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to build the axis over Florida through the period. Locally,
southwest wind flow will persist with speeds around 10 mph or less
each day. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each
afternoon and push inland. Temperatures will continue to be well
above normal for this time of year through Saturday, with
temperatures near record highs both days. Afternoon highs will be
in the mid 80s both days, with plenty of sunshine. Daily record
highs have already been reached or broken today at Daytona,
Leesburg, Melbourne, Orlando, and Sanford (see below). Overnight
lows both nights will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, possibly
reaching mid 60s in the Orlando Metro area. Patchy fog will once
again be possible across all of east central Florida late tonight
into Saturday morning.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level low pressure across the eastern edge of
the Midwest on Sunday will shift eastward towards the Atlantic coast
before moving northward along the NE US coast on Monday. At the
surface, a closed low along the coast of NC/VA will drag a trailing
strong cold front across east central Florida on Sunday as it moves
northward along the NE coast. Surface high pressure will then move
from TX/LA into the Gulf on Tuesday, with the axis building over the
Florida peninsula. Locally, drier air will move in behind the front,
with forecast PW values ranging from 0.8-1.5" ahead of the front to
0.1-0.2" behind the front. The front will also bring back rain
chances to east central Florida, although rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than 0.25". There is a medium (50-60 percent)
chance of showers across the whole area on Sunday. Forecast
soundings show limited instability, so lightning storm chances
remain low at this time. However, the greatest potential for
lightning storms will be along the coast from Melbourne southward.

West to southwest winds around daybreak on Sunday will veer
northwest and become breezy to gusty behind the front. Northwest
winds will remain around 10-15 mph Sunday night and through Monday.
Due to these stronger winds and very low min RH values, critical
fire weather conditions are forecast Monday. Temperatures ahead of
the front will be well above normal, especially across the south.
Afternoon highs on Sunday will be mid to upper 70 across the north
and low to mid 80s across the south. Monday will be noticeably
cooler, with afternoon highs ranging from mid 50s to low 60s.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night,
and low to mid 30s on Monday night. Due to the persistent NW breeze,
lowest wind chills on Sunday night into Monday will fall into the
low to mid 30s, and mid to upper 20s on Monday night into Tuesday. A
Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed for most of the area
Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure across the Gulf will slowly
shift eastward and over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday night. The
high pressure will continue to shift eastward and out into the
Atlantic Wednesday with the axis remaining over the Florida
peninsula through late week. Locally, north to northwest winds on
Tuesday will shift southerly on Wednesday and remain in place
through late week. Wind speeds will generally be light, at 10 mph or
less through the period. Temperatures will be on a warming trend
through the week, with temperatures reaching upper 70s to low 80s by
mid/late week. Overnight lows will also be on a warming trend, with
lows in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s to low 40s around the
Orlando metro and along the coast on Tuesday night, warming to the
50s by mid/late week. Radiational cooling will be excellent on
Tuesday night due to the clear skies, and coupled with the high
pressure over head and light winds, the potential for frost is
increasing where temperatures fall into the mid 30s.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today- Saturday... Generally good boating conditions as the high
pressure ridge axis will remain across Florida through Saturday.
This will result in south to southwest flow persisting across the
local waters both days. However, winds will veer onshore (SE) each
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes onshore.
Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts around 20
mph. Seas 2-4 FT today and 2-3 FT Sat. No mentionable rain chances.

Sunday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous discussion) Deteriorating
boating conditions Sunday into early next week. A strong cold front
will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and
possibly a few lightning storms mainly over the Gulf Stream. Strong
and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and
quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions will develop with seas building to 12 FT in the
Gulf Stream early Mon. Gusts to Gale force are possible Sun night
into Mon esp offshore. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating
through early next week. Winds will decrease 12-15 knots on Tue but
the north wind component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream
with a choppy 4-5 FT nearshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

SW winds persist at the east central Florida terminals as high
pressure remains overhead. The development of the east coast sea
breeze through this afternoon will cause winds at the coastal
terminals to become southeasterly and gusty, with gusts to 20
knots possible at times. Overnight, winds become light and
variable to calm. VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period, however, model guidance does indicate the potential for
fog development in proximity of the interior terminals. Maintained
a mention of BCFG for the interior terminals, but would not be
surprised if there is a need for MVFR/IFR TEMPOs within a future
package or amendments. Will closely monitor. Any VIS and/or CIG
reductions will improve by 15Z as SW winds pick up around 10
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions continue into the weekend. Min RH
values will drop to 35-45% this afternoon and Saturday afternoon
across the whole area. Southwest winds will remain around 10 mph or
less through Saturday. A strong cold front will then push through
the local area on Sunday. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% across
the northern interior on Sunday with min RH values recovering
slightly to 45-55% across the south. Southwest winds will become
northwest and breezy to gusty (15 mph gusting 25-30 mph) behind the
front. As the drier air settles over the Florida peninsula Monday,
min RH values will drop to 20-30% areawide and northwest winds will
be near 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph once again. This will result in
critical conditions for fire weather and a Red Flag Warning looks
likely both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 413 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Record Highs for today and Saturday:


            RECORD          RECORD   NORMAL
     DATE   HIGH     DATE   HIGH     HI
DAB  20-Feb 85 1988  21-Feb 87 1989  72
LEE  20-Feb 86 2018  21-Feb 87 2018  74
SFB  20-Feb 86 2019  21-Feb 87 2003  75
MCO  20-Feb 89 1988  21-Feb 88 1989  76
MLB  20-Feb 86 1988  21-Feb 88 1989  75
VRB  20-Feb 88 2023  21-Feb 87 2014  76
FPR  20-Feb 88 1932  21-Feb 89 1989  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  86  61  75 /   0   0  20  60
MCO  63  87  63  78 /   0   0  10  60
MLB  60  85  59  80 /   0   0   0  60
VRB  60  85  59  82 /   0   0   0  60
LEE  61  86  62  74 /   0   0  30  60
SFB  62  88  63  77 /   0   0  10  60
ORL  63  87  64  77 /   0   0  10  60
FPR  59  85  58  82 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion