Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

347
FXUS62 KMLB 101850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through Thursday with values
  approaching record highs across the interior.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Thursday with the approach
  of a cold front with medium to high rain chances persisting
  through late week and into this weekend.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast late this
  week as increasing winds cause seas to gradually build.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Current-Wednesday...Broad high pressure will shift eastward
across the western Atlantic through tonight and into Wednesday,
with the ridge axis remaining draped across the Florida peninsula.
As a result of the axis placement, southeasterly winds are
forecast across east central Florida, becoming more easterly each
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Wind speeds around 10 mph are anticipated, though enhancements
from the sea breeze could lead to winds increasing to 15 mph with
gusts to 20 mph possible at times, especially along the coast.
Mostly dry conditions are forecast to persist through mid-week,
though there remains a low (20%) chance of rain and storms across
the interior late this afternoon into the evening hours where the
sea breeze collision is anticipated to occur. While drier air
aloft will likely suppress storm development, added in a low
chance for thunder based on short range guidance indicating some
support for lightning. Any activity that manages to develop is
anticipated to dissipate late this evening, with dry conditions
prevailing through the overnight hours. Tonight, winds become
lighter with skies remaining mostly clear, leading to a chance for
some patchy fog development, especially from the greater Orlando
region and areas southward. Any fog that forms will dissipate near
to shortly after sunrise. Wednesday, conditions are forecast to
remain mostly dry but there is some CAM support for isolated
showers along the sea breeze collision late in the afternoon.
Confidence was too low to include within the forecast at this
time, so will continue to monitor.

Warm, above-normal temperatures will persist across east central
Florida as a result of the prevailing high pressure. Afternoon
highs today remain on track to reach the mid 80s along the coast
and the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. A repeat is
anticipated for Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s areawide. Some locations may approach their record high
temperatures, particularly across the interior. Lows are forecast
to remain in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday-Tuesday (previous)...Low pressure moving across northern
New England drags a cold front through the Southeast on Thursday,
before moving through the local area Thursday night. Rain chances
increase from north to south Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night, with PoPs up to 40-70%. Scattered lightning storms will
also be possible, with the main threats of gusty winds, small
hail, and locally heavy downpours. Southwest flow near 10-15 mph
in the afternoon will once again produce well above normal
temperatures, with even coastal areas reaching the upper 80s due
to a pinned sea breeze.

High pressure redevelops over the western Atlantic into the
weekend and early next week, however, a series of passing
shortwaves aloft and ample moisture from the weakening frontal
boundary will maintain rain chances near 40-70% Friday and
Saturday. PoPs increase Sunday into Monday (70-80%), as south and
southwesterly flow advects PWATs near 1.6" into the peninsula
ahead of yet another front Monday night. Scattered thunderstorms
will remain possible. High coverage of clouds and showers will
support nearer to normal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with
some spots across the interior reaching the mid 80s. Lows remain
in the 60s. Drier air, lower rain chances, and below normal
temperatures (highs upper 60s/lower 70s, lows 50s) are forecast
Tuesday behind the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

High pressure will remain situated across the western Atlantic
waters through mid-week, shifting farther offshore as a cold front
approaches the area on Thursday. The front will move across the
waters Thursday night, weakening late this week with the next
frontal passage forecast to occur on Monday. Rain and storm
chances steadily increase towards late week, generally ranging
from 40-70% Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period.
Scattered to numerous storms will be possible, with gusty winds,
small hail, and lightning strikes remaining the primary concerns.

South to southeasterly winds around 10 knots are forecast to
persist across the local waters through at least Wednesday,
becoming more south-southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the front.
Behind the front, winds veer to out of the north-northeast,
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Seas respond by rapidly building
starting Thursday night, reaching 6 to 9 feet, especially across
the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.
By Friday night, conditions subside below advisory thresholds,
with onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 3 to 6 feet.
Boating conditions continue to improve through the weekend, with
winds remaining around 10 to 15 knots and seas staying between 3
to 5 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions mostly forecast through tonight into Wednesday. A
few showers may develop (rain chances ~20%) with the inland
moving east coast sea breeze across the interior late today/early
evening between 22-02Z. Have added VCSH for KMCO/KISM/KSFB, but
not enough confidence for any tempo groups at this time. Patchy
fog will also be possible late tonight through early morning
Wednesday. Put in tempo MVFR visibility for KVRB/KFPR (our more
fog-prone sites) between 9-13Z.

Sea breeze has already switched winds to the E/SE along the coast
up to 8-12 knots and will continue inland reaching I-4 corridor
toward 22Z. Winds then diminish overnight and then pick up again
out of the S/SE 6-10 knots by late morning. The east coast sea
breeze will again form and move inland, switching winds to the
E/SE around 8-12 knots into the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 10       Mar 11       Mar 12       Monthly March
DAB    86 2023      89 1967      90 1935      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    87 1974      88 2015      88 2001      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    90 1974      88 1974      90 2001      94 3/20/2003
MCO    90 1918      91 1918      89 2001      97 3/30/1907
MLB    90 1964      89 1962      90 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    89 2022      88 1986      88 2023      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    90 2022      90 1997      89 1948      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  87  65  86 /  10   0   0  60
MCO  67  90  67  88 /  20   0   0  50
MLB  66  84  66  86 /  10   0   0  40
VRB  65  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  30
LEE  67  90  66  85 /  20   0  10  60
SFB  67  90  67  88 /  20   0   0  50
ORL  67  90  68  87 /  20   0   0  50
FPR  64  84  64  87 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion