Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

601
FXUS62 KMLB 141809
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
209 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances rise this weekend. The most
  widespread activity is expected Sunday and Monday. A few storms
  may become strong to severe. Main threats: gusty winds up to 60
  mph and coin-sized hail.

- There is a low chance for locally heavy rain and minor urban
  flooding where storms repeat, especially on Sunday.

- A strong late-winter cold front pushes across the state Monday
  night, bringing worsening boating conditions and much colder
  temperatures. Northern portions of Central Florida may struggle
  to reach 60 degrees on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current-Tonight...Some light rain around earlier today in response
to weak isentropic lift across the area. Otherwise a pleasant day
with temperatures in the U70s to L80s. Weak high pressure influence
across the region with onshore (ENE/NE) winds increasing to 10-15
mph with some higher gusts. The former frontal boundary across south
FL will begin to lift back northward late today/tonight as winds
begin to respond by veering ESE/SE in advance/passage into Sun
morning. Flow "backs" slightly SW aloft with embedded weak impulses
in the flow, as 500 mb temps cool to around -12C.

Surface heating and modest moisture, with some late day boundary
collisions should promote scattered shower and lightning storm
chances this afternoon and evening. Storm steering is out of the SSW
at 10-15 mph. In general, storm threats include lightning strikes,
gusty winds locally 35-45 mph, heavy downpours, and small hail.
However, the Storms Prediction Center has recently placed southern
Brevard County, southern Osceola County, Okeechobee County, and the
Treasure Coast under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. So, cannot
rule out a storm or two with winds to 60 mph and hail to quarter-
size. Activity over land mostly dissipates thru mid-late evening,
though cannot rule out an isolated shower overnight. Highest rain
chances over/near the coast, but the majority of convection will be
across the local coastal waters later tonight. Coverage generally 40
to near 60% this aftn/early evening - highest southward. PoPs
tonight 20-50pct - highest for coastal Martin County.

Lows tonight in the 60s areawide and conditions humid. Some models
suggest patchy fog across the interior overnight into early Sun
morning. Have recently added PFog mention in the grids/zones to
account for this potential. Should fog develop, visibilities less
than one mile are possible.

Sun-Mon...An unsettled weather pattern will exist across the area
into early next week. A large upper trough across the central CONUS
will push a strong cold front through central FL Mon night into
early Tue. Strong to marginally severe lightning storms will be
possible each afternoon/evening. 500 mb temps will approach -12C to
-13C. Subtle impulses embedded in the SWRLY flow aloft will aid
convection both days. PWATs will surge northward Sun aftn 1.55-1.80"
areawide. Precip chances increase during the day on Sun to 70-80%
areawide, 40-60% Sun night, and 70-80% again on Mon (pre-frontal).
Shower and storm chances diminish Mon night (north to south) with
the front`s passage. Storm steering will be toward the NE on Sun 20-
25 mph and continuing NE on Mon racing at 35 to 45 mph.

SSE/S winds on Sun will approach 10-15 mph with higher gusts. These
winds continue 5-10 mph into Sun night, while just off of the
surface 925 mb winds increase to 25-30 kts by daybreak Mon morning.
Surface winds on Mon become SWRLY and increase to nearly 20 mph
sustained with frequent higher gusts likely to 25 to 35 mph. W/NW
winds remain elevated into Mon night as the front sweeps through.
Storm threats on Sun entail frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
40-55 mph locally - perhaps one or two storms to 60 mph, torrential
downpours, and coin-size hail. Shear looks more favorable for Mon
with moderate instability and the potential severe threat could be
more organized. A tornado cannot be ruled out on Mon, though this
remains a secondary threat presently.

From previous discussion...Repeated storms over urban and poorly
drained locales may cause some minor flooding. The REFS suggests a
reasonable high-end of 3-4" rainfall totals (10% chance) with areal
averages closer to 0.25-1".

High temperatures remain quite warm and above climo, in the L-M80s
both days with a few U80s possibly sprinkled in (interior north of
Sun & south of a Kenansville-Melbourne line on Mon). Lows well into
the 60s Mon morning and continued muggy.

Remainder of Next Week...Previous Modified Discussion...Winter makes
a comeback, as much colder air pours down the peninsula thru at
least mid-week. Most likely wind chills on Tue morning slip into the
U30s from Daytona Beach to Leesburg, and highs on Tue may struggle
into the U50s to around 60F along/north of I-4, with L-M60s
southward. Much of the interior and Volusia County should fall into
the 40s on Wed morning, with L-M50s elsewhere. There is a 30-40%
chance of reaching the U30s north of Leesburg to Ormond Beach.

Much of ECFL looks dry on Tue, outside of showery precip across
local waters adjacent to the Treasure Coast. Confidence trails off
thereafter as a mid-level trough lingers. While the highest coverage
of rain from Wed through next Fri looks to reside over South
Florida, statistical guidance still paints 20-40% rain chances over
the Treasure Coast on Wed, expanding to areas southeast of I-4 on
Thu. The disturbance responsible for this activity should exit on
Fri, with only low shower chances lingering at the coast.

High temps remain a few to several degrees below normal on Wed/Thu
(U60s to L70s) before moderating closer to normal on Fri (M-U70s).
There is a 60-80% chance of reaching 80 degrees once again nearly
areawide by next Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Slowly improving boating conditions as seas subside to 4-5 ft
areawide becoming 3-4 ft by daybreak Sun morning. NE/ENE winds 10-
15 kts continue to veer to SE/SSE also by early morning Sun as a
weak boundary lifts northward across the waters. The pressure
gradient tightens thru the day on Sun with southerly winds
increasing to 14-18 kts in the afternoon. Winds continue to veer
(SSW/SW) and strengthen during the day on Mon 15-25 kts, highest
across the offshore waters. A strong cold front will push across
the waters Mon night veering winds (18-25 kts) further to NW. Some
gusts could approach Gale Force. Northerly winds Tue veer NE Tue
night- Thu. Very little improvement in wind speeds early-mid week.
Seas begin to respond Mon aftn thru Tue. Expect headlines for
poor to hazardous boating conditions for early to mid week.

Increasing shower and lightning storm threat this weekend thru Mon.
Some storms may be strong to severe Sun afternoon-evening, and again
on Mon. Storm threats include frequent cloud-to-water lightning
strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, small to coin-size hail,
heavy downpours, and cannot rule out a few waterspouts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

ISO-SCT SHRA has developed near and south of KTIX-KMCO, and near
MVFR CIGs continue to harass a few terminals. Lower than normal
confidence in the evolution of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon/evening
due to weak forcing in abundant moisture/instability. Highest
chances for TSRA south and west of the ECFL TAF sites, but close
enough to the Treasure Coast terminals to warrant VCTS through
22Z. Will need to keep a close eye on KMCO/KISM/KLEE after 22Z
for TSRA developing on the sea breeze collision wandering back
east. Easterly winds 8-13 kts gusting to around 20 kts at times
this afternoon settle to 5 kts after 00Z and gradually veer
southerly through the night. SHRA chances come and go through
the night, then begin increase first along the coast after 08Z.
There is still a low to moderate chance (20-40%) for IFR- LIFR
CIGs to develop at KMCO/KISM/KLEE/KSFB 09Z-14Z. Southerly winds
pick back up to 8-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts Sunday
afternoon. TSRA expected Sunday afternoon/evening across much of
ECFL, and +TSRA possible in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  84  65  84 /  20  70  50  80
MCO  67  85  68  83 /  20  80  40  80
MLB  67  83  67  84 /  30  70  50  80
VRB  66  83  67  86 /  40  70  60  80
LEE  65  85  67  81 /  10  80  50  80
SFB  65  86  67  84 /  20  70  50  80
ORL  66  85  67  84 /  20  80  50  80
FPR  65  83  66  86 /  40  70  60  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion