Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

734
FXUS62 KMLB 220658
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for numerous, strong, life-
  threatening rip currents continue at area beaches. Residents and
  visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the
  water.

- Shower chances confined to along the Treasure Coast through
  tonight, with locally heavy rainfall from repeated rounds across
  coastal St. Lucie/Martin counties possible. Rain chances ramp
  up again this weekend.

- Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend and early
  next week; very windy with dangerous surf and boating
  conditions, a risk for more beach erosion and minor coastal
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Current-Fri...Strengthening high pressure encompassing much of the
eastern CONUS extending across the Deep South will help create a
tight pressure gradient allowing for a continuation of NERLY winds.
This will support 10-15 mph winds with gusts to 20-25 mph today with
winds a little stronger into Fri. Speeds drop to 5-10 mph tonight
and perhaps a little higher at the coast. For Fri night, winds stay
elevated further along the coast (15 mph with higher gusts). A slug
of moisture southward will keep rain chances confined to mostly
St. Lucie/Martin counties through tonight, spreading further north
along the coast on Fri. PoPs 20-40% along the St. Lucie/Martin
coasts may have to be bumped up depending on trends. Precip totals
could add up from repeated rounds. Highest PoPs will be located
over the adjacent coastal waters.

Max temps slightly below climo in the U70s to L80s each day. Min
temps mostly in the 60s with U50s well into the interior overnight
and 60s almost everywhere Fri overnight, save for near 70F to L70s
along the Space/Treasure coasts.

Sat-Wed...Highly unsettled weather pattern as we venture into the
weekend and early next week. Mid-upper level ridging amplifies over
the central CONUS as troughing engulfs the FL Straits and Bahamas. A
surface low pressure will develop along an old frontal boundary near
to northeast of the Bahamas. Moisture deepens and rain chances
increase into the weekend-early next week. May have to be mindful
of some heavy rainfall potential. Greatest threat along the coast
and/or southward where moisture is deepest. The pressure gradient
tightens further, once again, and NE/ENE winds strengthen. Expect
windy/gusty conditions Sat/Sun/Mon with speeds increasing 20-30
mph sustained this weekend and frequent higher gusts. Wind
Advisories may be necessary, at least for the coast. Breezy
conditions persist into Tue, then the pgrad relaxes a bit into
mid-week.

These strong winds will coincide with high astronomical tides and
help produce another hazardous coastal event. Confidence increasing
that we will see beach erosion, rough surf, minor coastal flooding,
and dangerous rip currents this weekend into early next week. Max
temps remain consistent near/just below seasonal norms. Above normal
overnight lows in the M60s across the interior and U60s-L70s at the
coast due to the strong onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Thru Mon...Poor to Hazardous boating conditions continue thru early
Fri, then winds/seas will deteriorate further Fri afternoon thru the
weekend and early next week as marine conditions become dangerous.
This as high pressure to the north quickly strengthens and tightens
the surface pressure gradient, as low pressure develops along an old
frontal boundary near to just northeast of the Bahamas. Strong to
near Gale force NE/ENE winds are forecast to develop as rain chances
increase from south to north. Seas build 12-15 ft by late Sat/Sat
night. On top of Small Craft Advisories, Gale Watches/Warnings will
likely become necessary sometime on Sat into early next week.

SCT-NMRS shower & ISOLD lightning storm activity confined to the
Treasure Coast waters thru tonight, then precip chances increasing
northward during the day on Fri thru the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mostly dry, with some
VCSH continuing near SUA this morning, though there is some
indication that it could continue beyond 17Z though chances remain
low. NNE winds continue through this morning and into the
afternoon hours, with wind speeds increasing to 10-12 knots. Gusts
up to 20 knots cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Winds diminish
beyond 00Z, falling to around 5 knots while remaining out of the
NNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  65  78  68 /   0   0  20  20
MCO  80  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  68  81  70 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  82  68  83  69 /  10  10  30  20
LEE  78  59  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  80  65 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  80  61  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  67  82  69 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion