Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

073
FXUS62 KMLB 290615
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Another cycle of minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected
  this morning. Do not drive your vehicle into salt water. Follow
  local officials` advice to avoid flooded areas.

- Dangerous conditions will persist at our beaches through the
  weekend. Rough surf and numerous rip currents exist along our
  entire shoreline, and significant erosion has occurred. Stay out
  of the ocean. Mariners should reconsider Atlantic boating due to
  gusty winds and 5 to 10 ft seas.

- Onshore flow continues through the weekend. Scattered showers
  and gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph are forecast. The threat of
  locally excessive rain may increase from late Saturday into
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026


             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Flat mid-level ridging continues to extend from the Gulf into the
Southeast U.S. this morning. A quasi-zonal polar jet extends over
the northern U.S. A weak area of low pressure sits over the Bahamas,
to the south of a sprawling surface high over the Appalachians. A
persistent pressure gradient, responsible for the long duration
of fresh northeasterly flow over the Florida Peninsula, remains
in place. PWAT (moisture) values are still slightly above normal
for late October.

A weak mid-level ridge axis is forecast to move over Florida
late this week, nudging the low farther east and away from
the Bahamas. Behind a jet streak passing over the Great Lakes,
another impressive continental high should be summoned from the
Northern Plains, reaching the Mid-Atlantic states by Saturday
night. This will keep a pressure gradient over Florida through at
least early Monday.

Associated with the subtropical jet, a disorganized pocket of
vorticity currently sits over northern Mexico. Ensemble guidance
suggests this energy will move toward the east, reaching Florida by
Sunday. Expect some interaction with the persistent onshore flow
and moisture; nearly half of the 28/12Z grand ensemble suggests
this outcome.

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the middle
of next week, with onshore surface flow continuing but slowly
relaxing. Attention then turns to another disturbance within the
subtropical jet late next week. The latest ensemble clusters show
a trough reaching the Southeast by around next Thursday. Its cold
front may reach the state just beyond the 7-day forecast period,
with unsettled conditions potentially returning at that time.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Saturday...

Persistence has been the key to the forecast, and we don`t see
any wholesale changes as we end the week. We will continue to have
coastal and marine hazards, along with breezy to windy conditions
and periodic showers coming off of the Atlantic.

The highest water levels of this prolonged event appear to be behind
us. This month`s king tides begin to diminish as we move past the
full moon. While still gusty, the wind-driven surge lessens a bit
as well. However, minor to moderate coastal flooding remains likely
today, with gradual improvement expected over the next several
high-tide cycles. Peak water levels are anticipated from mid to
late morning before decreasing through the afternoon. Our Coastal
Flood Warning is set to be replaced by a Coastal Flood Advisory
at 2 PM today.

We will keep the High Surf Advisory through this evening as
breakers up to 7 feet remain possible. With numerous rip currents,
interrupted sand bars, erosion, and rough surf, we strongly
recommend that residents and visitors stay out of the ocean and be
very careful if venturing to our beaches!

Scattered showers remain in the forecast, with a low chance (

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion