Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

749
FXUS62 KMLB 310610
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106

- Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly
  winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from
  this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening
  rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding
  remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure
  Coast.

- There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4)
  for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through
  Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5
  inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a
  flooded road.

- Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open
  Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Mid-level ridging is parked atop the Sunshine State this morning. A
broad area of above-normal H5 heights extends over the eastern half
of the U.S. In the polar jet stream, a shortwave over New England
is responsible for reinforcing a continental high-pressure system
over the Great Lakes. In the West, a longwave trough axis sits
just offshore of California. Additional shortwave energy, on the
nose of the subtropical jet, is located over Texas.

By Sunday evening, the surface high should move into the
Mid-Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over Florida yet
again. Meanwhile, the mid-level shortwave currently over Texas is
expected to reach the northeastern Gulf and/or Florida. Guidance
has continued to trend slower with the arrival of this feature. A
surface reflection, most likely in the form of a weak trough, may
attempt to form over the eastern Gulf by Sunday evening. Enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is anticipated to coincide with a
broad area of upper-level jet diffluence, especially from Sunday
night into Monday morning. During this period, total moisture
(PWAT) is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology
over Florida.

This disturbance is forecast to weaken by Tuesday as it crawls
eastward. By Wednesday night, cluster analysis of the 30/12Z
ensemble suite shows another shortwave trough axis approaching the
Mississippi Valley. With additional jet stream energy on its heels,
guidance suggests this trough will begin to weaken as it reaches
the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. This portends a rather unimpressive
cold frontal passage for Florida sometime on Thursday. Somewhat
drier air is still likely to reach the state once it passes.

The subtropical jet is forecast to become quasi-zonal over the
Southern U.S. late next week and into the following weekend. Global
ensembles indicate a weak ridge developing near Florida, maintaining
above-normal H85 (5 kft) temperatures. The next signal appears
to be a southern stream trough entering the Desert Southwest next
weekend. It is not expected to reach Florida until at least Monday
the 9th.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Unfortunately, high-res guidance has struggled with the pesky band
of showers that has remained over portions of the Treasure Coast the
last 12 hours or so. We expect that periodic showers will continue
to stream off of the Atlantic, especially for areas south of Cape
Canaveral today. Rain chances range from 10-30% northwest of I-4
to 50-60% from Melbourne southward. Lightning chances remain low
(

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion