Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

991
FXUS62 KMLB 111121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

- There is a 30-40% chance of rain and widely scattered storms
  today, with the greatest coverage south of Orlando to the
  Treasure Coast in the afternoon and evening. A low, conditional
  threat for a strong to severe storm exists, with gusty winds
  from 50-60 mph and up to quarter-size hail as the primary
  hazards.

- A strong cold front will pass through the area on Thursday
  night, with cooler temperatures from Friday into Saturday. Early
  morning wind chills have a 10-15% chance to briefly dip into the
  upper 30s from Orlando northward on Saturday morning.

- Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to
  exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last
  week. We are monitoring a low potential for heavy rainfall along
  the coast next week. The latest river forecasts are available at
  water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

A split flow regime persists over the Eastern U.S. Of immediate
concern for Central Florida is the subtropical jet extending along
the Northern Gulf Coast, and specifically an embedded shortwave
over the Ark-La-Tex region. This disturbance is forecast to move
eastward today. As it reaches N Fla by evening, the environment
will become more favorable for synoptic-scale ascent.

Moisture is slowly returning, evidenced by scattered returns
on KMLB radar. By this afternoon, PWAT values are forecast to
jump to 140% or more of normal from near Orlando and especially
southward. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected,
contributing to moderate instability over the southern half of
the peninsula later today. Finally, the nearby jet should provide
effective shear of 30-40 kt. By Thursday, thermodynamics will
become less favorable for deep convection as deep moisture is
slowly pushed southward.

Meanwhile, the polar jet is beginning to amplify. Transient but
stout high-latitude blocking has developed this morning, with
well-above-normal 500 mb heights from the Northwest Territories
to Greenland. High confidence persists that meridional upper
flow will overtake the nation late this week and through much of
the weekend. Deep troughs are expected to form over the Eastern
U.S. and just off the Pacific Coast as a ridge builds over the
Rockies. On the leading edge of the developing trough over the East,
low pressure will strengthen as it passes from the Ohio Valley to
the Mid-Atlantic through late Thursday. Its trailing cold front
should pass through Florida on Thursday night.

Cold, continental high pressure should build southward out of
Canada on Friday. Chilly northwesterly flow will develop over the
Southeast and Florida from Friday into Saturday, allowing 925 mb
temps to fall to between +6 and +11 deg C as PWATs tumble to 30%
of normal by early Saturday. The cold, East Coast trough should
slowly weaken and push toward the Canadian Maritimes by early
next week. High pressure follows close behind, with a deepening
layer of brisk onshore flow resuming from Sunday into early next
week. This will quickly reverse the cold advection and begin a
moderating trend over the peninsula.

The Pacific jet is expected to remain active with multiple
disturbances reaching the West Coast over the next several days.
As the high-latitude block breaks down, the pattern is likely to
become progressive next week. At least half of the physics-based
ensemble members, along with the ECMWF-AIFS mean, suggest one of
these features will undercut a ridge over the High Plains and
reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday or Tuesday. Modest moisture
advection is also anticipated, suggesting a return to unsettled
conditions by that time.

Ensemble agreement and forecast confidence are high through the
weekend but decrease into next week.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A weak disturbance sparked a few showers last evening and early
this morning, but this activity should be pushing off into the
Atlantic. Except for isolated showers, we expect generally quiet
conditions through early afternoon.

As mentioned in the overview, at least marginally favorable
parameters will exist for storm development this afternoon and
evening, especially south of Orlando to the Treasure Coast. The
question will be whether an area of forcing associated with the
subtropical jet will effectively overlap with the deeper moisture
and instability. Guidance handles this with 30-40% rain and storm
chances late in the day.

If storms can manage to form, there is still a low and conditional
strong to severe storm threat. With nearly unidirectional wind
profiles, gusty winds to 50-60 mph and hail to around quarter
size would be the primary hazards. Locally, heavy rain will occur
beneath the storms, but overall storm motions should mitigate a
flooding risk.

Highs today will be the warmest of the next week or so, generally
in the low to mid 80s. Most areas should return to dry conditions
later tonight with mild temps persisting.

Thursday - Friday...

Moisture gets squeezed southward on Thursday as westerly flow mixes
down some drier air across the northern half of the state. Shower
chances (20-40%) are relegated to the Treasure Coast. We expect
quite a bit of cloud cover as a cold front approaches. Highs should
reach 75-80 degrees.

The cold front makes its pass through Central Florida on Thursday
night. By Friday afternoon, it will be well south of here. Clearing
skies are forecast on Friday, with temps trending below normal
in the low to mid 70s. Breezy northwest winds will develop with
gusts 15-25 mph.

Weekend...

Temperatures more typical of January will be felt across Central
Florida by Saturday morning as northwest winds deliver cooler air
down the peninsula. Low temps should reach the mid to upper 40s
over much of the interior, with low to mid 50s at the immediate
coastline. Our coldest wind chills are forecast near and north of
Greater Orlando (low/mid 40s). There is still a 10-15% chance of
wind chills briefly touching the upper 30s over this same area.

Onshore flow may return slightly faster than previously expected,
so temperatures have actually trended slightly milder from Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. Highs Saturday are now forecast to reach the
mid 60s to low 70s, with lows Sunday morning mainly in the 50s,
except some upper 40s northwest of I-4. We should all return to
the 70s on Sunday.

Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are forecast this weekend.

Monday - next Wednesday...

Temperatures continue to trend milder, especially for overnight
lows, as we move into next week. Onshore flow is forecast to become
quite breezy off the Atlantic, which is likely to cause rough surf
and hazardous beach conditions.

Guidance has hastened the return of moisture, and with another
disturbance approaching, rain chances will increase through the
period. It remains too early to tell whether heavy rainfall will
occur, but trends should be monitored closely. Reasonable worst-case
rainfall tallies (roughly a 1-in-10 chance of occurrence) have
ticked up to 3-4" along the immediate coast between Monday and
next Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

High pressure settles southward today, with light offshore flow
developing. A disturbance is forecast to spark scattered storms,
some of which may be gusty and offshore-moving. A cold front reaches
the area by Thursday night. Behind it, winds freshen and turn
northwesterly from Friday into Saturday. Poor to hazardous boating
conditions are expected during this period. Strong high pressure
to the north of Florida will turn winds back onshore by Sunday.

SW winds 5-10 kt today, becoming W 10-15 kt on Thursday. Behind the
cold front, winds on Friday and Saturday turn NW to NNW 15-20 kt,
briefly up to 25 kt offshore of Volusia County, especially early
Friday. Seas 2-4 ft through Thursday, then 2-4 ft nearshore /
3-6 ft offshore on Friday and Saturday. Locally, 7 ft seas are
possible in the Gulf Stream behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Few light showers possible almost anywhere this morning. Continued
light/variable winds thru the morning hours with an offshore (SW/W)
wind component developing by afternoon 5-10 kts. An increase in
moisture combined with a disturbance aloft will promote ISOLD-SCT
convection this afternoon and early evening focused mainly south
of a KTIX-KISM line. A few strong storms will be possible toward
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast terminals later today where
moisture is deepest. Have inherited VCTS from MLB southward
beginning around 18-19Z and will consider TEMPOs as confidence
allows. Generally VFR conds, but could see MVFR invof convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Minimum RH values will remain above 45-55% through at least
Thursday. A cold front passes by on Thursday night, delivering
cooler and drier air from Friday into Saturday. RH minima as low
as 38-45% are forecast on Friday near and northwest of I-4, with
widespread RHs of 40-45% on Saturday. Northwest winds of 8-12 mph
are expected Friday, turning NNW around 10 mph on Saturday. Moisture
will begin to increase from Sunday into next week as winds become
onshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over
the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1)
is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast
to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five
days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast
Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB.

While a few storms may develop through this evening, widespread
heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized
rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure
Coasts. The next significant rain chance should then hold off until
early next week. While it is far too early to determine whether
the setup will be favorable for heavy rainfall, the upper-end of
guidance shows a low chance (10%) of 3-4" along the coast early to
mid next week as onshore flow pulls moisture back over the area and
a disturbance approaches from the west. We will continue to monitor
this setup and any potential implications for ongoing flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  60  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  82  63  79  61 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  83  64  79  63 /  30  10   0   0
VRB  85  63  80  63 /  50  30   0   0
LEE  82  60  79  57 /  30   0   0   0
SFB  83  61  80  58 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  82  62  79  59 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  64  79  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion