Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

871
FXUS62 KMLB 130624
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
224 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Summer-like sea breeze pattern, with scattered afternoon
  showers and storms, will persist into next week. Main threats
  will be lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally
  heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a
  Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should
  remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during
  the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat
  safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Always swim near a
  lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Today-Tonight...The Florida peninsula will be sandwiched between
ridging over the western Atlantic, stretching its axis across the
Bahamas, and high pressure over the Gulf today. Light offshore
flow prevails, becoming variable at times. However, will see winds
back southeasterly this afternoon, with the development of the
sea breeze, and increase to near 10 mph. Available moisture near
2" will support the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon (PoPs 40-60%). Convection is forecast
to begin along the sea breeze, near the coast, after around 2 PM.
Then, transition inland through the afternoon, with a sea breeze
collision over the interior, near the Orlando metro, by this
evening. 500 mb temperatures remain warm at -5 to -6 C. But,
steep low level lapse rates and precip loading could produce a few
strong wind gusts this afternoon to near 50 mph. Slow storm
motions 10 mph or less will also lead to a continued heavy
rainfall threat.

Convection sustains itself along outflow boundaries through the
evening hours, with some slow drift back towards the coast
possible. Drier conditions develop by around midnight, then
continue through the remainder of the overnight hours.
Temperatures in the lower to mid-90s will feel noticeably warmer
today, as heat indices reach 100-107 area-wide. This, combined
with little overnight relief from lows in the mid to upper 70s,
will produce at least a Moderate HeatRisk for much of the forecast
area. Locations north and west of I-4, including the Orlando
metro, are expected to see Major HeatRisk conditions. Include heat
safety in your weekend plans and use caution during the heat of
the day.

Sunday-Friday...The Atlantic ridge axis remains south of central
Florida through most of next week, though models suggest a
northward shift by late in the week. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging
continues over the Gulf. Overall, the local pattern remains
unchanged through the period. Moist PWATs continue to hover around
1.8-2.2", providing ample moisture for daily scattered showers
and storms. Prevailing offshore flow will keep the highest PoPs
(40-70%) over the eastern half of the peninsula. Most convection
is forecast along the daily sea breeze, which will back winds near
the coast southerly to southeasterly each afternoon. Therefore,
expect peak convection in the afternoons, lingering into the
evenings as cells drift offshore. Storm motions early in the week
will remain slow, before an approaching front stalling across
north Florida enhances the gradient (and offshore flow) mid-week.
Main threats will continue to be gusty winds to 50 mph, lightning
strikes, and locally heavy rainfall, as 500 mb temperatures remain
warm. With offshore flow increasing, could also see a few weak
spin ups along the sea breeze.

Hot and humid conditions will linger through next week. Near to
slightly above normal high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s
are forecast. Moderate to Major HeatRisk will expand to much of
the area by late in the week. Overnight low temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s for many areas will continue muggy conditions
through the early morning hours. For more info about HeatRisk and
heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through the period,
as high pressure maintains influence over the local Atlantic
waters. Offshore winds back S/SE each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops, with winds remaining 15 kts or less. The exception is
forecast to be Monday night, when a tightening pressure gradient
due to an approaching front increases winds offshore to 15-20 kts.
Seas 1-3 ft.

Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected each day, as
they develop along the sea breeze. As offshore flow strengthens,
chances for offshore-moving showers and storms during the late
afternoons and evenings will increase. Boaters should use caution
later in the day and watch the western sky for approaching
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Light and variable winds through this morning. The east coast sea
breeze will develop later this afternoon, turning winds easterly
at the coastal terminals after 17Z and more southeasterly across
the interior terminals after 20Z. VCSH and VCTS chances increase
along the sea breeze, with highest coverage of showers and storms
focused near the interior terminals late afternoon. Depending on
trends, TEMPOs may be needed for the interior terminals, but
confidence in timing and placement of highest coverage is too low
right now. Will continue to monitor. Activity diminishes into the
overnight hours, with light southwest winds forecast at all
terminals beyond 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  92  76 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  93  76  92  75 /  60  60  60  20
MLB  91  77  90  76 /  40  20  60  30
VRB  91  75  91  75 /  30  10  60  30
LEE  94  77  92  77 /  40  30  20  10
SFB  95  77  94  76 /  60  50  60  20
ORL  94  77  92  77 /  60  60  60  20
FPR  90  75  90  74 /  40  10  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion