Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

299
FXUS62 KMLB 150700
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Scattered to locally numerous afternoon and evening showers, as
  well as lightning storms will persist through midweek with
  scattered coverage into late week. There is the potential for a
  few strong storms each day, which will have the capability of
  producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 40-50
  mph, and heavy rainfall with slow-moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices generally
  between 100-107 with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents
  and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the
  shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about
  HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at
  all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a
  lifeguard and never enter the water alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today-Tuesday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry weather over
east central Florida with a few light isolated showers over the
Brevard and Treasure Coast waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in
the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. A similar
forecast is expected today with high pressure over the western
Atlantic, as well as the eastern Gulf of America and south Florida
(~1018mb).

Dry weather is forecast in the morning hours before scattered to
numerous showers (20-50% west of the Orlando Metro and 50-70% to
the east) and lightning storms are expected to develop into the
afternoon as west-southwest flow converges with the east coast sea
breeze. Guidance shows PWAT values in the 1.9-2.3" range this
afternoon, MUCAPE as high as 2,500-4,000 J/kg, and bulk shear
between 15-35kts where sea breeze collisions occur. The main
hazards will be frequent lightning, heavy rainfall (1-3" in 60-90
minutes with a 1-in-10 chance in excess of 2" up to 4" total), and
wind gusts up to 40-50mph. West-southwest winds at 5-10mph with
gusts up to 15-20mph are forecast before winds back onshore with
the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon, mainly to the east of
the Orlando Metro through midweek. Expect a similar forecast on
Tuesday with a slight eastward movement of the high over south
Florida and the western Atlantic. Above normal (~3-6+ degrees)
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast each afternoon
with heat index values as high as 102-107F. Warm low temperatures
in the mid 70s are forecast. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists
today and Tuesday. A Major HeatRisk affects anyone without
adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to stay hydrated and
take frequent breaks from the heat!

Wednesday-Friday... The western Atlantic ridge is expected to
weaken as a major shortwave trough deepens over the western
Atlantic. The result for east central Florida is slightly drier
conditions as west-southwest flow converges with the east coast
sea breeze, mainly from Brevard county northward on Wednesday.
Scattered showers (30-60%) and lightning storms are forecast into
the afternoon. On Thursday, the east coast sea breeze will push
further inland with a slightly stronger east coast sea breeze
which will increase the probability of precipitation (20-40%)
inland. Rain chances (30-50%) increase areawide on Friday as weak
perturbations pivot along the base of an upper level trough over
northern Florida. The main hazards each afternoon will be frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall (1-3" in 60-90 minutes), and wind gusts
up to 40-50mph with the best potential for stronger storms on
Friday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with
lows in the mid to upper 70s and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

The Weekend... Scattered to numerous showers (50-70%) and
lightning storms are forecast each afternoon with a frontal
boundary over the Southeastern US and northern Florida. There is
the potential for strong storms each afternoon. Afternoon highs
in the low to mid 90s are forecast with lows in the mid to upper
70s and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.possible

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected.
Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers (20-70%) and
lightning storms are forecast, especially from the Brevard county
waters northwards (some of which will have the potential to
become strong). West- southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to
20kts are expected to back south- southeast into the afternoon.
Seas to 2-3ft are forecast.

Wednesday-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected.
Isolated to scattered generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast on Wednesday (some of which will
have the potential to become strong). Drier conditions are
forecast Thursday and Friday with isolated showers (20-40%) and
lightning storms forecast. West-southwest winds at 10-15kts with
gusts to 20kts are expected to back south-southeast into each
afternoon. Seas to 2-3ft are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Continued mainly VFR outside of afternoon/evening convection. Light
& variable winds will become SW/W up to 10 kts on Mon, but will
eventually "back" (onshore 10-12 kts) at the coast with sea breeze
formation and minimal/slow movement inland. Suspect ISOLD-SCT
convection, generally aft 18Z but could see a few showers as early
as 16Z, with the ECSB Mon afternoon and some additional showers
with the quicker-moving WCSB as it sweeps across the peninsula and
into east central late day. Boundary collisions will increase
coverage across the eastern peninsula late afternoon-early
evening to SCT-NMRS. MVFR (local IFR) with storms. Activity will
diminish and/or push off the coast thru mid-late evening.
Stronger collisions will promote erratic movement of cells at
times. "Vicinity" wording now but TEMPO groups to gradually be
added as confidence in timing/location increases with highest
late day/evening coverage confined to coastal terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  92  75 /  60  30  60  20
MCO  94  76  93  75 /  50  20  50  20
MLB  94  77  92  76 /  70  60  60  50
VRB  94  75  93  75 /  60  60  60  50
LEE  93  77  93  76 /  20  10  30  20
SFB  95  77  94  76 /  50  20  50  20
ORL  94  77  93  76 /  50  10  50  20
FPR  92  74  92  74 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion