Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

230
FXUS62 KMLB 122350
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
750 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Higher coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms will
  persist into next week. Main threats will be lightning strikes,
  gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow
  moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a
  Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk over Central Florida,
  residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more
  info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please swim near a lifeguard.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Current-Tonight... The 15Z XMR sounding has shown a deep column of
moisture through 15,000ft with light winds observed throughout
the profile. Isolated, slow moving storms have started to develop
along the sea breeze early this afternoon with additional
development getting underway across the interior where
temperatures are observed in the upper 80s and low 90s. Increasing
coverage (60-80%) of showers and storms will peak towards the
central peninsula, near and south of Orlando, late this afternoon
and evening along a sea breeze collision. A localized heavy
rainfall threat will exist again this afternoon and evening, and
slow moving or stationary storms will be capable of quick 2-4"
accumulations over a 60-90 minute period. Surface instability
greater than 2,500 J/kg will allow for quick updrafts and
lightning strikes, however, a slightly drier layer aloft and warm
500mb temperatures around -6C should generally limit stronger
storm development. Convection may linger a few hours beyond sunset
with dry conditions then forecast overnight. Low temperatures
will remain mild and muggy with most locations in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Friday... A persistent summertime pattern is forecast as
high pressure holds control at the surface and aloft. The surface
ridge axis sinks southward early this weekend, settling near south
Florida and the Florida Straits into next week. Light southwest
flow develops locally, modestly increasing Monday and Tuesday as a
cold front sags into the southeast U.S. Mid level ridging will
continue to dominate through the next week, keeping the front
north of the Melbourne CWA. An offshore flow regime combined with
near to above seasonal moisture will favor at least scattered
showers and storms across east central Florida each afternoon and
evening. Current trends suggest the greatest area-wide coverage
(50-70%) of diurnal showers and storms occurring Sunday,
coincident with the period of highest moisture (PWAT ~1.9-2.2"). A
better pinned sea breeze should occur Monday into mid week, and
this will begin to favor the best rain chances in vicinity of
I-95 each afternoon and evening. Slow moving or stationary storms
will continue to promote a locally heavy rainfall threat which may
lead to nuisance or minor flooding of urban or low lying areas.
Otherwise, isolated stronger storms will be capable of frequent
lightning strikes and gusty winds of 40-50 mph. Brief funnel
clouds or waterspouts may be possible along chaotic boundary
collisions, particularly from Monday onward as the southwest flow
slightly increases.

Outside of storms, the forecast`s focus is directed to a period of
hazardous heat. Above normal temperatures are forecast each day with
highs ranging the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s inland.
Deep moisture within the low levels will further promote peak heat
index values between 100-107F each afternoon, and a Moderate to
Major HeatRisk will expand across east central Florida, including
the Orlando Metro. Overnight lows mostly in the mid to upper 70s
will continue muggy conditions through the early morning hours. For
more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High pressure will maintain favorable boating conditions this
weekend and into next week. Light offshore flow each morning shifts
southeast near the coast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon.
Winds then veer south to southwest each evening, increasing 10-15
kts. Seas mostly 2-3 ft. Chances for showers and storms remain near
the coast on Saturday with increasing coverage of offshore moving
storms building into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals outside of convection.
Debris -SHRA INVOF of KMCO and other inland terminals not expected
to produce categorical impacts, and should dissipate in the next
couple hours. Outflow from Orlando area TSRA expected to reach
KMLB-KFPR between 00Z-01Z, producing wind shifts, gusts, and
possibly ISO SHRA/TSRA through around 02Z. Debris -SHRA INVOF
KSUA departing. Quiet conditions overnight into Saturday morning
once convection stops. Winds become light/VRB until the east coast
sea breeze develops Saturday after 17Z, shifting winds to the
SSE- SE 5-10 kts behind the boundary as it moves inland. Initially
ISO SHRA/TSRA could develop along/inland of the sea breeze as
early as 16Z, gradually increasing in coverage through the
afternoon. Light flow will again favor a sea breeze collision and
highest coverage of TSRA near the ECFL inland terminals in the
evening. Will likely need TEMPOs at inland terminals after 20Z in
coming TAF packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  10  40  20  60
MCO  75  93  76  93 /  30  60  50  70
MLB  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  70
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  10  40  10  70
LEE  76  94  77  93 /  30  40  30  30
SFB  76  95  77  94 /  20  50  30  70
ORL  76  94  77  93 /  30  50  40  70
FPR  74  90  75  90 /  10  50  10  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion