Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

818
FXUS62 KMLB 121725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
125 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A cold front will pass through the area today, beginning several
  days of medium to high rain chances with embedded lightning
  storms.

- Breezy southwesterly winds 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph,
  outside of convection late this morning and into this evening.

- Above normal temperatures persist through today, with values
  near record highs along the Treasure Coast.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast into this
  weekend, as increasing winds cause seas to build and a High Risk
  for rip currents develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Today-Tonight...Rain chances return to the forecast today, as a cold
front moves through the area into tonight. Mostly dry through the
morning hours, before showers and storms begin to move into areas
north and west of I-4 after 2 PM. Coverage will then increase from
north to south into the evening hours, with all of the area seeing
at least a 30% chance for showers by sunset. As the front moves
south of the area overnight, drier conditions will begin to develop
into late tonight. However, PoPs 30-60% will linger through the
evening. A few to scattered storms will be possible, with modest
CAPE, especially along the front itself. Any storms that develop
will be capable of gusty winds (with lingering dry air aloft),
lightning strikes, and heavy downpours.

Gusty southwesterly winds are expected late this morning through the
afternoon, outside of any convection. Winds 15-20 mph are forecast,
with gusts up to 30 mph. Model guidance suggests these winds will
linger through the evening along the frontal passage, before
diminishing to 10-15 mph by daybreak. Southwesterly flow will pin
the sea breeze to the coast, allowing for even coastal areas to
reach the upper 80s and threatening a few records along the Treasure
Coast. Areas north of I-4, which are expected to see showers begin
earlier in the day, look to remain in the mid-80s. Tonight, lows for
most areas remain in the 60s, with upper 50s possible across
northern portions of the forecast area.

Friday-Sunday...A weak Atlantic ridge axis moves over the Florida
peninsula late this week and into this weekend. Limited drying
occurs through Friday, with PWATs remaining up to 1.3" south of
Orlando in onshore flow. This translates to a few to scattered
showers (20-40%) remaining possible for southern portions of the
area late Friday morning and into Friday afternoon. Dry air in the
mid- levels will likely inhibit storm development. However, a few
strong storms will be possible, should they be able to take
advantage of DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures near -11
C. Temperatures moderate from previous days, with breezy onshore
winds 10-15 mph keeping highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.7") advects into the area this
weekend, as onshore flow Saturday veers southerly on Sunday. PoPs
increase through the period, with 30-60% Saturday becoming 70%
area-wide on Sunday, due to the passing shortwave aloft. The
highest coverage on Saturday looks to be generally south of
Melbourne, where the highest moisture will reside. Cold
temperatures aloft (500 mb near -12 to -13 C) will support the
development of a few strong storms this weekend. The main threats
will be gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours, with
storm motions around 10-15 mph. Total rainfall accumulations
through the weekend look to remain around 1-1.5", but isolated
totals near 2" cannot be ruled out. Highs warm into the lower 80s
area-wide by Sunday, under high cloud coverage.

Monday-Thursday...A stout low pressure system moves through the
Great Lakes early next week, dragging yet another cold front
through the Florida peninsula Monday into Monday night. Medium to
high rain chances persist through Monday, before drier air and
lower PoPs (20-40%) develop into mid-week. Breezy winds return,
with southwest flow veering onshore through the period. Highs in
the lower 80s Monday will see a significant cooldown to near to below
normal Tuesday through Thursday. Most areas will struggle to break
out of the 60s Tuesday afternoon. Noticeably chillier lows are
also expected, falling into the 50s, with mid to upper 40s north
of I-4.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Poor boating conditions offshore today, with south to southwest
winds 15-20 kts. Conditions will deteriorate across all of the
local Atlantic waters this evening and into tonight, as a cold
front veer winds northerly at 20-30 kts. Seas in the Gulf Stream
are forecast to build from 2-4 ft this afternoon to 6-9 ft by
daybreak, with Small Craft Advisories issued. Conditions will be
mostly dry through early afternoon, before coverage of showers and
storms increases through late afternoon along the front.

Boating conditions improve into the weekend, as a weak ridge axis
develops over the waters. While onshore flow diminishes through
the day on Friday, becoming 10-15 kts by late afternoon, seas up
to 6-8 ft linger in the Gulf Stream. Will see greater improvement
Saturday, as seas fall to 3-5 ft. Breezy southerly winds begin
Sunday, then veer southwesterly and increase to up to 20-25 kts
offshore Monday, ahead of another approaching front. Medium to
high coverage of showers and storms will continue through this
weekend and into early next week, especially Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Veering winds ahead of an approaching cold front and pre-frontal
convection. Models continue to indicate decaying (intensity) band
of showers and lightning storms pressing southward across the I-4
corridor this afternoon, continuing southward late day and
evening. While SW/W winds will be breezy/gusty already, winds
continue to veer NW/N behind the front this evening/overnight.
There will be a few-hour period immediately following the front
that may have the highest wind gusts (in excess of 25-30 kts),
with speeds gradually decreasing thru the night. A 1-3hr period of
convective activity at any TAF site this afternoon/evening. Storm
threats include lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 35
kts, and brief downpours. Individual storm steering flow is out
of the W at 25-30 kts as this activity drops south/east. Some
MVFR CIGs are anticipated behind the front, but may be slow to
lift during the day on Fri. Winds continue to veer NE/E thru the
day on Fri with speeds 10-15 kts and higher gusts likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 12       Monthly March
DAB    90 1935      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    88 2001      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    90 2001      94 3/20/2003
MCO    89 2001      97 3/30/1907
MLB    90 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    88 2023      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    89 1948      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  77  62  79 /  30  10  10  30
MCO  62  79  65  80 /  30  10  10  50
MLB  65  78  66  80 /  50  20  30  50
VRB  66  79  65  81 /  50  20  40  60
LEE  58  80  62  81 /  20  10  10  40
SFB  60  79  62  81 /  30  10  10  40
ORL  61  79  65  81 /  30  10  10  50
FPR  65  80  64  81 /  50  30  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion