Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

785
FXUS62 KMLB 190603
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
203 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers continue across the local waters
  and along the coast through Friday, with drier conditions
  anticipated over the weekend.

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast to
  persist over the next few days.

- A warming trend is forecast through the period, with
  temperatures reaching above normal values once again this
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Current-Thursday...Mid-level troughing persists across the
eastern US, with a series of shortwaves forecast to round the base
of the trough and move overhead the Florida peninsula tonight
into Thursday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped
across Cuba and the Bahamas is forecast to generally remain in
place, slowly drifting southward tonight and into Thursday as high
pressure remains centered across the Carolinas and up towards the
Mid Atlantic region. The shortwaves will act as weak upper level
enhancement, allowing for just enough energy to produce some
isolated to scattered shower activity across the local Atlantic
waters and from the Cape southward. Rain chances remain 20-30%
along the coast and 30-50% across the local Atlantic waters
through the remainder of today through Thursday.. Rainfall totals
are anticipated to remain below a quarter of an inch. At this
time, confidence in storm development remains too low to mention,
so have kept it out of the forecast.

The plume of moisture associated with the stalled boundary has
led to cloud coverage remaining high across east central Florida,
which has limited daytime heating across the area. Temperatures
remain on track to reach the upper 60s across most spots, with
some low 70s not able to be fully ruled out. Another night of
cooler than normal temperatures is forecast, with lows falling
into the mid 40s to mid 50s, with some spots along the immediate
Treasure Coast only falling into the upper 50s. Cloud coverage is
forecast to decrease slightly into Thursday, allowing for better
daytime heating. Forecast highs reach the upper 60s along the
coast north of the Cape with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Northerly winds are forecast to prevail across east central
Florida through the remainder of today and into Thursday. Wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph are forecast, with gusts to 30 mph possible
at times. These winds will lead to building seas and poor to
hazardous beach conditions. A high risk of rip currents is
forecast to continue into Thursday and with the northerly winds, a
southward-flowing longshore current is likely also present.
Entering the ocean is not advised with these conditions!

Friday-Monday...The stalled boundary gets kicked farther
southeastward as one final shortwaves moves across the Florida
peninsula on Friday. Low rain chances (20-30%) continue into
Friday afternoon across the Atlantic waters and along the Treasure
Coast, with conditions trending drier into this weekend and the
start of next week as high pressure stretches from the Gulf
towards east central Florida. Skies become clearer and winds
lighten to 5 to 10 mph, with winds becoming variable at times as
the high sits overhead. The presence of the surface high will
support a warming trend locally, with afternoon temperatures
anticipated to reach the 80s once more by this weekend. By Monday,
there is indication that some areas, especially across the
interior, could reach 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The pattern begins to transition across east
central Florida towards the middle of next week as a frontal
boundary approaches Florida and stalls just north of the
peninsula. Guidance indicates increasing moisture out ahead of the
boundary, which would result in a return of low rain chances
(20%) nearly areawide across east central Florida on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to slightly trend downward,
reaching near normal temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions are anticipated to persist
across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. North
to northeast winds between 15 to 25 knots will cause seas to
build to 6 to 9 feet, with the highest seas focused across the
offshore waters. By this weekend, a return of generally favorable
boating conditions is anticipated. High pressure settles across
the waters, resulting in winds diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas
respond by subsiding to 2 to 5 feet. Generally favorable boating
conditions are anticipated to persist into early next week.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the
local Atlantic waters through Friday as a stalled boundary draped
across Cuba and the Bahamas produces a plume of moisture across
the area. Rain chances fall over the weekend as high pressure
moves into the area and drier air settles across east central
Florida and the local Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions should mostly hold through the rest of the night.
Then a surge in N/NE winds today will increase low level moisture
and also lead to the development of isolated to scattered showers
over the waters that will push onshore along the coast, mainly
near to south of KTIX. This shower activity and lower cloud cover
may lead to MVFR conditions, mainly along the coast into late
morning and through the afternoon to early evening. For now, have
mostly kept VFR conditions in the TAFs with mention of rainfall
limited to VCSH. The exception is at KSUA where predominant MVFR
cigs are more likely from 18-03Z, and are included in the forecast.
Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will continue into
Thursday night, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

Northerly winds around 8-11 knots will continue through early this
morning, and then conditions will become breezy to windy into the
late morning and afternoon. N/NE winds will increase to 15-20
knots after 14Z, with gusts up to 25-30 knots. Strongest winds
and gusts are currently forecast along the coast. After 00Z winds
will gradually decrease, but speeds will still remain elevated
around 10-15 knots this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to persist
across east central Florida over the next few days due to near-
critical minimum RH values and breezy north winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Winds are anticipated to subside to 5 to 10 mph by Saturday, but
near-critical RH values are forecast to persist into the weekend.
These sensitive conditions will only be further exacerbated by
warming temperatures through the forecast period. An improvement
in RH values does not look to occur until early next week as
moisture increases as a frontal boundary approaches the peninsula.
Steps to prevent wildfire creation or spread should be taken,
including not parking on dried out grass, discarding cigarettes
properly, and avoiding any outdoor burning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  54  73  52 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  71  54  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  72  59  75  56 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  74  59  76  56 /  30  30  30  10
LEE  72  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  72  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  72  55  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  75  58  76  55 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion