Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

054
FXUS62 KMLB 200711
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
211 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for interior portions
  of east central Florida until 9 AM.

- High pressure across the southeastern US will keep conditions
  dry locally through at least Wednesday afternoon, with a return
  of rain chances late this week into the weekend.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist across the
  local Atlantic waters through at least the middle of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

This Morning...Clear skies and northwest winds this morning will
allow temperatures to continue falling, with lows anticipated to
reach the low 30s to low 40s areawide, with the warmest
temperatures focused along the Treasure Coast. Current light
northwest winds are forecast to increase over the next few hours,
producing wind chill values below 30 degrees across portions of
the interior, particularly rural locations. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM for Lake, Seminole, Orange,
Osceola, Okeechobee, and inland Volusia counties. If heading out
early this morning, be sure to bundle up with a warm jacket.
Patchy to areas of frost will also be possible in rural locations,
especially across northern Lake and Volusia counties.

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure is forecast to remain
situated across the Gulf and southeastern US as a reinforcing
front moves southward across the area today. Locally, dry
conditions are forecast to persist today into tonight, with clear
skies areawide. North to northeast winds will become breezy at 10
to 15 mph as the high strengthens and the pressure gradient
becomes a bit tighter locally. Temperatures will reach the 60s
areawide this afternoon, with some spots across the Treasure Coast
even reaching the low 70s. Overnight lows also overall trend
warmer, with temperatures falling into the 40s across the interior
and into the 50s along the coast. The coldest temperatures late
tonight will be focused near and north of the I-4 corridor.

Wednesday-Friday...The surface high will shift northeastward
towards the Mid Atlantic and offshore on Wednesday, gradually
weakening Wednesday night. Conditions are forecast to remain
mostly dry on Wednesday, but developing onshore flow will prompt
moisture advection from the Atlantic towards the peninsula. Rain
chances begin to increase Wednesday night, with onshore-moving
showers possible south of the Cape. Thursday, a weak area of low
pressure is forecast to develop near the Bahamas and drift
northeastward out across the Atlantic, lifting a stalled boundary
northward towards the Florida peninsula and leading to increased
moisture locally. The low washes out and the weak stalled boundary
remains in place into Friday, draped across the Florida
peninsula. Additionally, another slow-moving cold front will begin
to approach Florida from the north, so east central Florida
appears to be sandwiched between these two boundaries. There are
discrepancies between just how much moisture will be present
across the area Thursday and Friday, so have opted to stick with
the NBM which maintains a 20-40% chance of showers across most of
east central Florida each day.

Temperatures are forecast to follow a warming trend, with highs
in the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday reaching above normal values
on Friday in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures are
also forecast to follow a slow warming trend, with values
generally in the 50s and 60s.

Saturday-Monday...The approaching cold front will move slowly
towards east central Florida this weekend and into early next
week, with little movement caused by a lack of mid and upper level
support. Guidance continues to remain inconsistent on exact
timing of when the front will clear east central Florida, but the
latest guidance is trending later. As a result of this, Saturday
now looks to have lower rain chances, while rain chances remain
around 20-30% across northern portions on Sunday and broadly
around 20% on Monday. Temperatures will reach their warmest values
through the forecast period on Saturday, remaining well above
normal values for this time of year areawide. By Sunday and
Monday, temperatures begin to slowly decrease as cloud coverage
increases and the front approaches closer to east central Florida.
A return of colder temperatures will be possible into Monday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

North to northeast winds at 15 to 20 knots will cause seas to
slowly build through today, reaching 6 to 8 feet once again this
afternoon across the Gulf Stream waters. Small Craft Advisories
across the Gulf Stream will go into effect at 1 PM, continuing
into the overnight hours and through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere,
small craft will likely need to exercise caution. Winds veer to
out of the east into Wednesday, maintaining seas of at least 6
feet across the offshore zones through at least Thursday. Seas
gradually subside as winds weaken late this week, with a return of
generally favorable boating conditions Friday through Saturday
morning. This will be short-lived, however, as an approaching cold
front leads to increasing winds (15-20 knots) across the waters
and seas build up to 9 feet across offshore zones late Saturday
into Sunday.

High pressure located in proximity of the local Atlantic waters
will help maintain generally dry conditions through Wednesday. As
the high shifts northeastward, winds become onshore and begin
advecting moisture across the local waters. A stalled boundary
then lifts northward close to the area into Thursday and Friday,
with a cold front then approaching from the north into this
weekend. Overall, rain chances return to the forecast starting
Wednesday night, with a 20-50% chance of rain anticipated to
persist through much of the forecast period. Storms are not
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1209 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR continues as high pressure builds into the region. A tighter
pressure gradient will exist on Tue with N/NNE winds 10-15 kts and
gusty...up to 25 kts along the coast. Will also see an increase
in marine stratocu crossing the coast MLB-SUA with bases 035-040
AGL. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Another day of sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated
across east central Florida today, particularly north of the I-4
corridor. Minimum RH values in this area are forecast to fall to
30- 35%, particularly across Lake and northwestern Volusia
counties. North to northeast winds will reach 10 to 15 mph today,
though the strongest winds are not anticipated near the areas with
the lowest RH values. Fire weather conditions are forecast to
improve by Wednesday as minimum RH values recover to above 35% and
winds remain below 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  48  71  57 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  64  48  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  66  55  73  61 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  68  56  74  60 /   0   0  10  30
LEE  62  43  71  54 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  63  47  73  57 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  63  48  73  58 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  69  56  74  60 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion