Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

396
FXUS62 KMLB 120826
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions today; a high risk of rip
  currents exists at area beaches, so entering the water is
  discouraged

- Isolated coastal showers are forecast through at least Tuesday,
  mainly from Cape Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast

- Rain chances increase areawide Wednesday into Thursday along a
  strong cold front, followed by sharply colder and drier air
  late in the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Today-Tonight...RAP analysis early this morning indicates a tight
surface pressure gradient, which is helping to kick up north-
northeasterly winds along the coast (gusting 20-25 mph at times).
Broken mid-level clouds are in place along portions of the coast
with the greatest coverage south of Melbourne. Temperatures this
morning (as of 2 AM) are markedly cooler, ranging from the upper 40s
north to the mid/upper 60s south. Northeast flow is forecast to
decrease through the day as high pressure becomes elongated over the
southeast U.S. Model soundings for today indicate that there will
be an abundance of upper level clouds, accompanied by some
measure of low level clouds as well. Sandwiched in between is a
healthy layer of dry air, roughly between 800-500mb. Some breaks
in the clouds are possible, but sunshine will be limited in many
locations. Highs this afternoon will likely struggle to reach the
70-degree mark from Orlando/Titusville northward, ending up
slightly warmer (low 70s) to the south. Tonight, similar
temperatures are forecast, perhaps staying a degree or two warmer
with northerly winds 5-10 mph.

Rain chances are limited to none for much of the area today, but we
do introduce a 15-20% chance across the Treasure Coast by late
afternoon and overnight. Profiles become saturated enough in the
lowest 1-2 km to support sprinkles or light showers, particularly
over the Treasure Coast waters. Some of this activity could brush
the coast from time to time into early Tuesday.

Tuesday-Wednesday...For many locations, especially over interior
ECFL, conditions will remain dry on Tuesday. The forecast maintains
a low chance for showers along the coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral
southward, where models show 1.2"+ PW will reside. Light onshore
flow will continue Tuesday with daytime temperatures recovering a
bit more, reaching the upper 60s to middle 70s. Attention turns
to a mid level shortwave rounding the base of a deepening trough
by midweek, as the features both progress toward the southeast
U.S. At the surface, a residual front lifts north on Wednesday,
preceding a series of cold fronts advancing toward FL. This
boundary, along with additional forcing arriving from the north,
will combine with 1.4-1.5" PW to raise rain chances to 25-40%
Wednesday afternoon. The highest coverage of rain and timing
remains a bit uncertain, but following the consensus of guidance,
rain chances climb to 40-55% by early Thursday morning. Mostly
cloudy conditions Wednesday are likely to keep temperatures a bit
cooler (M/U 60s north, 70s south).

Thursday-Sunday...A strong cold front makes its way into the region
Thursday, accompanied by breezy to gusty northwest winds (20-30 mph
gusts). Northwest winds will help advect much drier air south across
the FL Peninsula, helping to clear skies out Thursday afternoon and
night. The combined northwest breeze, clear sky conditions, and cold
continental airmass will send temperatures plummeting into the 30s
for most by Friday morning. Wind chill values in the mid to upper
20s are forecast Friday morning as well, solidly reaching Cold
Weather Advisory criteria for 80% or more of ECFL. Portions of
northern Lake and Volusia counties may also reach the upper 20s/low
30s (below freezing). In summary, the end of the week looks
cold overall with Friday`s highs ranging from the mid 50s north
to the low 60s south. Saturday promises another cold start with
temperatures in the 30s and 40s, but a lighter wind makes for less
of a wind chill factor. Afternoon highs rebound into the 60s and
perhaps the lows 70s across the far south.

High pressure that built over Florida and the southeastern U.S.
Friday/early Saturday will break down again Saturday afternoon as
another cold front brings reinforcing cold air Sunday into Monday.
There are discrepancies in models at this range regarding timing
and any chance of precip, but for now, this forecast calls for a
dry frontal passage. Temperatures trend colder Sunday into early
next week behind this front, perhaps flirting with wind chills
near the 30-degree mark again Monday morning. On the whole, expect
a cooler-than-normal pattern to persist through the extended
range with limited opportunities for measurable rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Elevated north-northeasterly winds will take time to subside through
the day, leaving in place poor to hazardous boating conditions over
the local Atlantic. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this
morning for all legs of the nearshore and offshore waters, paring
back to primarily the Gulf Stream waters by mid morning. Seas remain
5-7 ft there, declining to 3-5 ft nearshore, generally north of
Sebastian Inlet. Small craft will likely need to exercise caution
over the Gulf Stream through tonight. Isolated showers are forecast
(20-30%), mainly south of Cape Canaveral.

Favorable boating conditions return Tuesday as NE winds decrease to
8-12 kt and seas reach 3-5 ft. Seas fall further to 2-4 ft Wednesday
before offshore winds pick back up Wednesday afternoon and night (15-
20 kt). A strong cold front swings through Thursday, freshening
northwest winds and building seas. Thus, poor to hazardous
conditions quickly return Thursday morning to the offshore zones,
expanding to the remainder of the local Atlantic waters Thursday
afternoon into early Friday. Seas reach a peak of at least 7-9 ft
Thursday night/early Friday, though this could be a conservative
forecast (some guidance brings wave heights up to 10+ ft
offshore). Rain chances increase ahead of and along the
approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday, and a lightning
storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream.

High pressure builds over the waters Friday and winds respond by
decreasing quickly, though seas may take a bit longer to decline
Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The MVFR conditions have since lifted, with generally VFR
conditions forecast through the TAF period. Some guidance is
indicating some MVFR conditions Monday, mainly at SUA. But
confidence is too low to include it. NW winds around 10K with
gusts around 20 KT at times will veer NE after 08Z, remaining
around 10 KT through the day on Monday. Winds then decrease to
generally below 10 KT after 00Z on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  54  68  53 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  69  55  71  58 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  70  59  73  58 /  10  20  20  30
VRB  72  59  75  59 /  20  20  20  30
LEE  67  50  69  53 /   0  10  10  20
SFB  68  53  70  55 /  10  10  10  20
ORL  68  54  71  57 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  73  59  75  59 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion