Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

748
FXUS62 KMLB 210912
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
412 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Continued very warm today with one more day of near-record
  highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- A strong cold front will bring a band of showers Sunday followed
  by sharply colder and much drier air. Critical fire weather
  conditions may develop Sunday afternoon into the evening for
  northern sections and will likely develop areawide Monday.

- Unseasonably cold low temperatures Mon-Wed mornings with
  frost/freeze concerns. Coldest wind chills will occur Mon
  night/Tue morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today/Tonight...High pressure ridge axis will remain across south
FL and produce a SW wind flow. The offshore (SW) flow will not be
strong enough to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming
but it will be delayed. This will allow even coastal sections to
warm into the mid 80s with upper 80s over the interior. There is a
good chance for more sites to tie or even break record highs (see
below). Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along a stationary
front across the deep South. This low will begin to deepen tonight
along the Carolina coast and a trailing cold front will push into
north FL peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of this
front will reach Lake and Volusia counties round or a little
before sunrise.

Sun-Tue...Winter makes a comeback. The cold front will sweep
across EC FL Sunday preceded by a band of showers. While chance
for measurable rain is high (60-70%), rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than 0.25" most areas. A few storms are
possible over southern sections (south of Melbourne) during the
afternoon as daytime temps reach the low to mid 80s and a narrow
band of instability with CAPE values around 750 J/kg. Behind the
front, gusty northwest winds will usher in sharply colder and much
drier air Sunday afternoon from north to south behind the front.
Collaborated with JAX/TBW about Fire Weather Watch for late Sunday
as trend is for lower dewpoints and RH values reaching our
northern counties late in the day. Advection of lower dewpoint air
often outruns the onset of significant cold air advection. This
is an unusual situation in that critical fire weather conditions
could extend into the evening, post-sunset. Would not be surprised
if a Red Flag Warning is needed for northern counties late
Sun/Sun eve.

Temperatures will fall quickly Sun eve reaching the mid to upper
30s Mon morning which indicates a colder trend in model guidance.
A persistent NW breeze of 10-15 mph will produce lowest wind
chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Despite full sunshine Monday,
max temps will be about 15 degrees below normal, only reaching the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon
combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather
conditions.

The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory
is likely to be needed for most of the area with lows in the 30s
and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a
northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Probability for freezing
temperatures near 30/lower 30s is rising (up to 70%) for interior
sections (outside of urbanized Orlando corridor) on Monday
night/Tue AM so Freeze Warnings will be on the table too.

Tue night-Fri...High pressure will settle over the area Tue night
and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will
produce excellent radiational cooling and another chance for
freezing temperatures over the interior in the lower 30s.
Elsewhere, these conditions will produce the best chance for
frost during this cold outbreak where temps fall into the mid 30s
which should encompass much of EC FL.

High pressure will push east of the area Wed and return southerly
flow will allow temps to warm back up quickly with max temps in
the low to mid 70s Wed and reaching low to mid 80s Fri. Dry
conditions persist with the next meager chance for showers
arriving around Friday associated with the next cold front which
is currently forecast to stall over north/central Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

High pressure ridge axis will remain across south Florida today
which will continue to produce a SW wind flow up to 10 knots,
turning onshore (SE) in a sea breeze near the coast this afternoon.
Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts around
20 mph. Seas 2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore.

A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered
to numerous showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape.
Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front Sun
afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Solid
Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop with seas rapidly
building to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream Sun night and early Mon.
Occasional gusts to Gale force are forecast Sun eve offshore
Volusia and Brevard. NBM probs show a 20-40% chance for wind gusts
40 mph or greater and only for a 6 hr period. So have held off on
a Gale Watch. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating
through Mon night. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but
the north wind component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream
with a choppy 4-5 FT nearshore. High pressure will become
centered over the FL peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed
with a trailing ridge axis across south FL. Winds quickly veer to
an offshore component and seas fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Environment once again marginally favorable for fog/stratus early
this morning. Mainly on the lookout for stratus (which could
bring some VIS reductions as well) developing over the
Gulf/WCFL/NOFL, and fog developing over SOFL, spreading into
ECFL through 13Z-14Z. Highest chances remain at KLEE and KVRB/KFPR
(continued IFR TEMPOs), with very low confidence elsewhere and all
other ECFL terminals including KMCO forecast to remain VFR. Winds
tonight light SW/VRB, increasing to 5-10 kts after 15Z. East coast
sea breeze develops from KTIX-KSUA after 18Z shifting winds SSE
and increasing up to 12 kts with occasional higher gusts. Fast
moving and diffuse west coast sea breeze forecast to reach inland
terminals between 19Z-23Z, briefly shifting winds WNW at around
10 kts. Winds become light SW/VRB again after 00Z.

A cold front will approach ECFL early Sunday morning, but there is
still some uncertainty in timing and impacts. Latest HREF has IFR
CIGs ahead of the front reaching the I-4 terminals as early as
10Z (07Z for KLEE) and knocking on the Space and Treasure Coast
terminals doors around 12Z, while LAMP generally remains VFR until
SHRA/TSRA ahead of the front arrive after 12Z, then some MVFR
reductions through the day as the line pushes south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Warm and dry conditions continue for one more day today. Deep mixing
will transport lower dewpoints to the surface allowing min RH values
to fall 30-35% this afternoon over the interior. Southwest winds
will remain below 15 mph. A southeast sea breeze will develop along
the coast this afternoon which will be occasionally gusty but also
boost the RH values. Dispersion values will be Very Good to
Excellent, except generally Good over Okeechobee county to the
Treasure coast.

A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday and bring a chance
for showers but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast.
Isolated lightning storms will be possible in the afternoon south of
Orlando. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph
gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. RH
values will fall during the afternoon with potential for critical RH
spreading south to Orlando late in the day and into the evening. Red
flag conditions are likely Monday with min RHs 20-30% areawide and
NW winds near 15 mph with gusts near 25 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Record Highs for today, Feb 21st:


            RECORD  NORMAL
      DATE   HIGH    HI
DAB  21-Feb 87 1989  72
LEE  21-Feb 87 2018  74
SFB  21-Feb 87 2003  75
MCO  21-Feb 88 1989  76
MLB  21-Feb 88 1989  75
VRB  21-Feb 87 2014  76
FPR  21-Feb 89 1989  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  60  76  36 /   0  20  70   0
MCO  88  63  77  41 /   0  10  70   0
MLB  84  59  80  39 /   0   0  70   0
VRB  85  58  82  39 /   0   0  70  10
LEE  86  62  74  37 /   0  30  70   0
SFB  88  62  77  38 /   0  10  70   0
ORL  88  63  77  40 /   0  10  70   0
FPR  85  57  83  39 /   0   0  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion