Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

012
FXUS62 KMLB 140607
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
207 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances rise this weekend. The most
  widespread activity is expected Sunday and Monday. A few storms
  may become strong to severe. Main threats: gusty winds up to 60
  mph and coin-sized hail.

- There is a low chance for locally heavy rain and minor urban
  flooding where storms repeat, especially on Sunday.

- A strong late-winter cold front pushes across the state Monday
  night, bringing worsening boating conditions and much colder
  temperatures. Northern portions of Central Florida may struggle
  to reach 60 degrees on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow exists over Florida this
morning. The state resides well south of a strong, zonal polar jet
over the northern tier of states. A weak subtropical jet extending
across the southern Gulf is set to carry weak ripples of vorticity
maxima over the state through this weekend. In the boundary layer,
mesoanalysis finds a weak trough and cyclonic flow at H925 to H85
over the southern half of Florida. This is roughly where an old
cold front has dissipated, draping a moisture discontinuity. At
the coast, low-level onshore flow opposes offshore flow near 10
kft, which may favor banded precipitation should deeper convection
develop.

Over the next couple of days, expect northward advection of
the moisture sitting across South Florida as the flow turns
southeasterly to southerly. This will occur as an intense (160 kt)
jet streak at H3 dives from the Pacific Northwest, carving out a
sharp trough over the Plains. Combined with seasonably cool mid-
level temperatures, lapse rates will be sufficient for moderate
convective instability over the peninsula, particularly on Sunday.

By Monday morning, a full-latitude neutral-tilt trough will have
formed over the Ohio Valley, with its cold front likely extending
from W Virginia to the Florida Panhandle. This will be a powerful
storm, with a surface reflection potentially reaching sub-980 mb.
This feature may deliver 3+ ft snows over the portions of the Great
Lakes and a significant severe weather episode over portions of the
lower Midwest. Ahead of the front, meridional (south-to-north) 5 kft
winds over the Florida Peninsula are projected to reach the 90th
percentile of climatology, ensuring the continued presence of
warm/moist air and an introduction of some wind shear. ECMWF EFI
values for CAPE exceed 0.8 on Monday, suggesting unusually high
instability. Behind the boundary, cold advection will push below-
normal temperatures and drier air into Central Florida beginning
Tuesday. The 13/12Z grand ensemble remains in relatively strong
agreement with pattern evolution through early next week.

As the polar jet retreats northward and an incredible 594+ dam H5
ridge overtakes a sizzling Sonoran Desert, guidance strongly
suggests that a weak mid-level trough will get left behind
between Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle of next
week. A trough of low pressure may form over South Florida or the
Florida Straits by around Thursday as the lingering mid-level
feature interacts with a baroclinic zone. While a majority of
members currently place much of its unsettled weather just south
of the district, there is still low confidence in the forecast for
mid to late next week.

Bottom line: a highly anomalous and, at times, historic weather
pattern is forecast over parts of CONUS during the next week.
Increasing moisture and instability leads to an unsettled forecast
through Monday ahead of a strong early-week cold front, followed by
cooler conditions beginning Tuesday.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

Of immediate concern is a low threat for heavy rain right along the
Space & Treasure Coasts this morning. Hi-res guidance hints at this
potential, with a reasonable worst-case scenario of isolated 3"+
amounts should the convection get going. The most likely scenario
keeps much of the heavy rain offshore, but this will be worth
monitoring closely.

As moisture increases, the chances for showers and a few storms
will persist through the day (40-70%). Coverage should consolidate
over the interior and perhaps even west central Florida by this
evening before mostly dissipating tonight.

Expect partly sunny skies and temperatures a few degrees above
normal today.

Sunday - Monday...

This should be the most active stretch of the forecast. Nearly
all of the AI/ML convective outlooks suggest at least a 5-15%
chance of severe hazards on Sunday and Monday.

On Sunday, an impulse aloft should combine with moderate instability
and a diffuse sea breeze to spark 60-80% chances for showers and
storms in the afternoon and evening. This activity should be moving
generally north-northeastward, with the interior and I-4 corridor
having the highest potential for storms. There remains a marginal
(5-10%) risk for a few strong to severe storms on Sunday, with
moist, warm air beneath a dry and cool middle troposphere. Shear
looks relatively weak, but the setup seems favorable for strong
wind gusts, a few up to 60 mph, and coin-sized hail. Repeated
storms over urban and poorly drained locales may cause some minor
flooding. The 13/18Z REFS suggested a reasonable high end of 3-4"
rainfall totals (10% chance) with areal averages closer to
0.25-1".

The sharp cold front makes its final approach to the district on
Monday afternoon. Moderate instability and somewhat more favorable
shear are expected to blossom as the front moves over the area,
leading to another round of showers and storms. Model proximity
soundings suggest another low (but non-zero) risk of a few strong
to severe storms on Monday; primary hazards should again be gusty
winds to 50-60 mph and coin-sized hail. A tornado cannot be ruled
out, though this is a secondary threat at this time.

High temperatures remain warm, in the low to mid-80s, both
days. Monday looks quite breezy, with wind gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Remainder of Next Week...

Once the cold front exits the state Monday night, decidedly colder
air will be felt in its wake. Most likely wind chills on Tuesday
morning slip into the upper 30s from Daytona Beach to Leesburg,
and highs on Tuesday currently have a 40-70% chance of failing to
reach 60 degrees roughly near and northwest of I-4. Much of the
interior and Volusia County should fall into the 40s on Wednesday
morning, with low-mid 50s elsewhere. There is a 30-40% chance of
reaching the upper 30s north of Leesburg to Ormond Beach.

Much of east central Florida looks dry on Tuesday. Confidence trails
off thereafter as a mid-level trough lingers. While the highest
coverage of rain from Wednesday through next Friday looks to reside
over South Florida, statistical guidance still paints 20-40% rain
chances over the Treasure Coast on Wednesday, expanding to areas
southeast of I-4 on Thursday. The disturbance responsible for
this activity should exit on Friday, with only low shower chances
lingering at the coast.

High temps remain below normal on Wednesday/Thursday (upper 60s-low
70s) before moderating closer to normal on Friday (mid/upper
70s). There is a 60-80% chance of reaching 80 degrees once again
by next Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue in the Gulf Stream
this morning. A diffuse front will lift northward over the next
24 hours, with winds slowly shifting toward the southeast by
Sunday. Winds freshen out of the southwest on Monday ahead of a
strong cold front, becoming northwesterly once it passes on Monday
night. Unsettled weather is forecast at times through early next
week, and boating conditions will worsen yet again from Monday
into Tuesday.

Today, seas settling to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon with ENE
winds 10-15 KT. On Sunday, winds turn SE around 15 kt with sea
3-4 ft. Winds become southwesterly 15-25 kt on Monday, turning
northwesterly 20-25 kt on Monday night. Seas build to 4-6 ft on
Monday, then as high as 9 ft early Tuesday in the Gulf Stream
behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Mainly VFR CIGs but ocnl MVFR CIGs in scattered SHRA lifting north
across Treasure coast terminals overnight. Isold TSRA will be
possible SUA-FPR. The SHRA will spread toward MLB/MCO/SFB/LEE where
a VCSH is currently indicated in the respective TAFs. Some
redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA appears most likely invof SUA-FPR aft 19Z
this aftn. Winds ENE to E increasing 8-12 knots after sunrise, then
decreasing and veering SE tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  64  84  66 /  30  30  80  60
MCO  80  66  85  68 /  50  20  80  40
MLB  79  66  83  68 /  50  40  80  50
VRB  80  66  83  67 /  50  40  80  50
LEE  81  65  85  68 /  40  20  80  50
SFB  80  65  85  67 /  40  20  80  60
ORL  80  66  85  68 /  50  20  80  50
FPR  81  64  83  66 /  50  40  80  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion