Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

044
FXUS62 KMLB 261131
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
631 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- High Fire Danger this afternoon across northern portions of
  east central Florida due to low RH values and gusty southwest
  winds.

- Warming trend will continue through late week, with highs in
  the upper 70s to low 80s today and low to mid 80s on Friday.

- Mostly dry today through Friday morning, with rain chances and
  potential for storms increasing from Friday afternoon through
  Saturday with an approaching front.

- A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure across the Atlantic will
remain extended near to just south of the area, with south-southwest
flow continuing. Low level 925mb winds around 10-20 knots (highest
near to north of the I-4 corridor) will lead to sfc wind speeds
increasing to around 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible.
This should hold off development of the east coast sea breeze north
of the Cape, but this boundary should still develop near to south of
the Cape later in the day, with winds switching to the southeast.
After a slightly chilly start to the morning with morning lows in
the 40s, afternoon temps will warm to above normal values in the
upper 70s to low 80s. It will remain mostly dry again today into
tonight, but may see isolated showers develop or move northeast into
the southern Treasure Coast late afternoon/early evening before this
activity shifts offshore.

An Elevated to High Fire Danger will exist across the area today due
to a lingering drier airmass, warming temps and increasing south-
southwest winds. Marginal Red Flag conditions (wind speeds of 15 mph
and RH values at or just below 35%) will be possible near the I-4
corridor northward this afternoon, and have therefore issued a
Red Flag Warning for northern portions of east central Florida
that runs from 1-6 PM today.

Friday-Sunday...A weakening cold front approaches FL late Friday
and slowly pushes southward, eventually stalling briefly across
central FL Saturday before it shifts southward into late weekend.
S/SW flow ahead of the front will continue to increase moisture
and rain chances across the area later into Friday afternoon
through Friday night and into Saturday. PoPs are forecast to reach
30% across the area Friday afternoon, and then increase to 40-50%
for much of the area Friday night and around 50-60% Saturday with
frontal boundary across the region.

Isolated storms may be possible Friday afternoon into Friday
night, but better potential for storm development will be into
Saturday afternoon as MUCAPE values increase to 500-1500 J/kg.
Shear values don`t look overly impressive, but cold temps aloft
(around -12 to -14C at 500mb) may lead to small hail with any
isolated stronger storms that can develop. Probabilities for
rainfall totals at or above 0.5 inches are increasing across the
area for the Friday-Saturday period (up to 30-40%), but then fall
to 10% or less for totals at or above 1 inch. However, any storms
could easily lead to localized totals of 1-2 inches. Rain chances
decrease Saturday night into Sunday as passing S/W trough finally
shifts front south of the area. However, a slight chance for
showers/storms will persist into Sunday with some lingering
moisture and instability persisting across the area.

Highs continue to increase into Friday, with values above normal in
the low to mid 80s. Increasing rain chances/cloud cover and the
passing front will then lower max temps to the mid 70s to low 80s
into the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Strong area of high pressure centered across the
Great Lakes region will shift eastward into the northeast U.S. from
the early to middle portion of next week. This will lead to a
developing onshore flow that will maintain the potential for
isolated to scattered onshore moving showers into next week.
However, rain chances remain on the lower end (around 20-30%)
through this period. Temperatures are forecast to remain near
to slightly above normal across the area from early to midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Overall favorable boating conditions forecast to continue through
late this week and into the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure
across the Atlantic will remain near to just south of the area today
and Friday, with S/SW winds becoming S/SE each evening. A front will
approach the waters into Friday night and eventually move into
central FL as it stalls briefly into Saturday. This boundary will
then shift south into late weekend, with W/SW winds on Saturday
gradually becoming onshore behind this boundary Sunday into early
next week. Wind speeds forecast to reach up to 10-15 knots, with
seas no more than 2-4 feet through the next several days. Dry
conditions will largely continue through today across the coastal
waters, but chance for showers and even a few storms will return to
the forecast into tonight, with rain/storm chances increasing
through Friday into Saturday with the approaching front. As the
front passes, lingering isolated to scattered showers will be
possible into late weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
early this morning will become south to southwest and increase to
around 10 KT by mid-morning. SW flow will increase to 11-13KT
with gusts 18-20KT (gusts mainly for MCO-SFB-LEE-ISM-DAB-TIX-MLB)
in the afternoon (around 17Z). Continued to be slightly above LAV
guidance for MCO- SFB-ISM-LEE-DAB this afternoon because the 925
mb winds over that area are around 15 KT and it wont take much for
those winds to mix down. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form late this afternoon (21/22Z), mainly from MLB southward,
which will turn the winds onshore (SE). Winds will then become
light once again this evening/overnight before increasing to
around 10 KT by Friday mid-morning. There is a 20 percent chance
of showers for SUA this afternoon when the sea breeze is pushing
onshore. However, confidence remains low, so have kept any
mention of showers out of the TAF for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Elevated to High Fire Danger exists across the area this afternoon
as south-southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with Min RH
values dropping as low as 30-40 percent. Greatest potential for
winds to reach around 15 mph and RH values to fall to critical
values (30-35%) will be near to northwest of the I-4 corridor. A Red
Flag Warning has therefore been issued for these northern portions
of east central Florida and will be in effect from 1-6 PM today.
South to southwest winds up to 10-15 mph will continue into Friday,
which will continue to increase moisture across the area and is
forecast to keep RH values above critical values. Rain chances will
increase ahead of an approaching front from late Friday through
Saturday as this boundary moves into the region. PoPs increase from
30 percent Friday afternoon to 40-50 percent for much of the area
Friday night and up to 50-60 percent on Saturday. Some lightning
storms will also be possible, with greatest potential for storms
into Saturday afternoon. Dispersion values will become Very Good to
Excellent today and Friday, with control issues possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  57  81  59 /   0  10  30  60
MCO  79  60  83  63 /   0  10  30  50
MLB  79  59  82  61 /   0  10  30  50
VRB  80  58  83  61 /  10  10  30  50
LEE  79  58  82  61 /   0  10  30  50
SFB  79  58  83  62 /   0  10  30  50
ORL  79  60  83  63 /   0  10  30  50
FPR  80  58  84  59 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
     evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion