Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

396
FXUS62 KMLB 042356
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
756 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- A High Risk for rip currents at area beaches, with poor to
  hazardous boating conditions through this evening.

- Warming trend this week, becoming hot by midweek, with highs
  back in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday, nearing
  record values.

- Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a storm or two
  will continue into tonight, mainly across southern portions of
  east central Florida (rain chances 20-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A stalled boundary persists across the
Straits of Florida this afternoon, maintaining just enough
moisture and lift for some isolated to scattered showers along the
Treasure Coast. Very dry air exists above 800 mb, with a ridge
axis building into the area, so deep convection is not forecast.
However, a stray lightning strike cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere,
it`s quite dry, with RHs between 35-45%. Breezy winds, with gusts
20-25 mph, will persist this afternoon, before slackening this
evening.

Tonight, winds continue to subside, as the pressure gradient
between the high and stalled boundary relaxes. Onshore flow
persists, maintaining PoPs 20-40% over the Treasure coast, as
showers and a storm or two may drift onshore. The best chance for
this looks to be late tonight into early Tuesday morning, during
the convective maxima over the Gulf Stream. Morning lows are
forecast in the 60s, warmest along the coast.

Tuesday-Thursday...A ridge axis stretches from a high pressure off
of the Mid-Atlantic coast to the eastern Gulf through mid-week.
Onshore flow slackens on Tuesday, though winds still increase to 10-
15 mph behind the sea breeze. Winds veer SE, then SW, Wednesday and
Thursday, as the ridge axis shifts southward. Mainly dry conditions
prevail, though can`t rule out a few showers along the Treasure
Coast/Okeechobee Tuesday. In addition, CAMs suggest a few showers
developing along the sea breeze over the interior Tuesday afternoon,
though any convection would face very dry air above 700mb.
Temperatures increase a few degrees each day, peaking on Thursday
due to SW flow. Highs in the lower 80s along the coast and mid to
upper 80s inland Tuesday afternoon increase to the lower to mid-90s
area-wide Thursday. Several records will be threatened (see Climate
section).

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...Model differences begin to take
shape into late week and weekend. Front moving into the Southeast
U.S. is generally forecast to push southward into the area and then
lift back northward, before stalling near to north of Florida
through the weekend. Discrepancies include how far south the initial
front makes it and timing. Regardless, the front will increase
moisture and generally lead to increasing shower and storm chances,
with PoPs currently ranging from 20-30% Friday and up to 30-50% into
early next week. The arrival of the front as well as increasing
cloud cover and return of rain chances should lower max temps
slightly. However, highs are forecast to remain near to above normal
(mid 80s to low 90s) through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue through this
evening, as high pressure builds over the area. East winds up to
20-25 kts offshore south of Cape Canaveral will subside after
midnight, becoming 10-15 kts across all of the local Atlantic
waters by daybreak. Seas also subside, with 6-8 ft in the Gulf
Stream south of the Cape diminishing to 3-5 ft to begin Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisories continue through 8 PM.

Generally favorable boating conditions then continue into the
weekend. However, will need to monitor the progress of an
approaching front late week. Scattered showers and a few storms
persist into tonight and into Tuesday offshore from the Treasure
Coast. Then, mostly dry conditions prevail through the period.
Increasing rain chances are expected with the front into the
weekend. Onshore winds veer offshore by mid to late week, though
they will back SE in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Winds 15
kts or less through the period. Seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry this evening,
with a couple isolated light showers/virga, mainly across the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. Due to the light nature of
these returns, have kept any mention of rain out of the TAF for
now. ENE winds 10-15 KT with gusts to around 20KT this evening
will decrease to around 5 KT after 02z, staying closer to 10 KT
MLB- SUA. Winds will then pick back up to around 7-12 KT
everywhere after 15z Tue. Models are showing isolated showers
being possible from MLB-SUA, but low confidence in timing and
coverage, so have kept mention of rain out of TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Very sensitive fire weather conditions this week, with breezy
easterly winds and gusts 20-25 mph this afternoon. Lingering
moisture maintains scattered showers along the Treasure Coast today.
However, drier air to the north has led to min RH 35-45%. High
pressure builds over the peninsula through mid-week. A few showers
and a storm or two will be possible over southern portions of the
forecast area Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail.
Onshore winds slacken through Wednesday, increasing to 10-15 mph in
the afternoons behind the sea breeze. No min RH concerns for coastal
areas due to onshore winds. Although, increasingly hot and dry
conditions will lead to min RH 40-50% west of I-95 on Tuesday and 35-
45% on Wednesday. High temperatures reach the lower 90s inland by
Wednesday afternoon. Very good dispersion through mid-week.

High pressure will maintain hot and dry conditions through
Thursday, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s Thursday
afternoon. Very sensitive fire weather conditions, with SW flow
10-15 mph in the afternoon and min RH 35-40%. High mixing heights
will allow for excellent dispersion Thursday afternoon across much
of the area, which could lead to control problems.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Wednesday, May 6th
and Thursday, May 7th:

Site           May 6        May 7
Daytona      95 (1955)    93 (1952)
Leesburg     93 (2007)    94 (1984)
Sanford      95 (1952)    94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1922)    98 (1915)
Melbourne    94 (2022)    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   95 (2022)    93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (2022)    95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  82  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  65  86  68  93 /   0  20   0   0
MLB  69  82  71  87 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  68  83  69  87 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  64  87  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  64  86  68  94 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  66  87  69  93 /   0  20   0   0
FPR  68  83  68  87 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion