Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

033
FXUS62 KMLB 161858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
158 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Chilly again tonight with temperatures falling into the 40s.
  Mid to upper 30s forecast for portions of northern Lake and
  Volusia.

- Another cold front is forecast to move across the Florida
  peninsula on Sunday, with scattered showers forecast ahead of
  the front.

- Cold conditions return to east central Florida behind the cold
  front on Sunday, resulting in cold mornings through at least
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Current-Tonight... High pressure across the region continues to
promote calm and dry conditions. After a cold start to the day,
temperatures have reached the 50s across much of east central
Florida with areas of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast touching the
60s. Not as cold tonight, but remaining chilly with most areas
falling into the 40s. Mid to upper 30s are forecast across
portions of northern Lake and Volusia.

Sautrday-Monday... A mid/upper level trough builds east of the
Rockies on Saturday, swinging across the eastern U.S. and through
Florida on Sunday. Surface high pressure retreats into the western
Atlantic ahead of the trough while the western flank of the ridge
axis remains stretched across east central Florida on Saturday.
Still chilly on Saturday morning with lows mostly in the 40s. A few
areas of northern Lake and Volusia could dip into the 30s, and light
winds will support patchy frost development in vicinity of Lake
George. A brief warmup will allow temperatures to recover near
normal by the afternoon, mostly in the low to mid 70s. Morning lows
trend near normal Sunday morning before a the next front brings
another cold airmass to the region. Global ensembles continue to
disagree in rain chances ahead of the front Sunday. Most GFS
ensemble members hold a dry solution while Euro members support
measurable rainfall amounts across the north. The latest NBM
leans toward the Euro ensemble members and have capped rain
chances around 40-50% near and north of the Orlando metro. Lower
rain chances further south for now, but have noted a potential
uptick within a few of the extended CAMs. Highs on Sunday vary
widely north to south based on frontal timing. Areas north of I-4
could be limited to the upper 50s and low 60s while a longer
period of heating and westerly flow ahead of the front could allow
portions of the Treasure Coast to reach the mid to upper 70s.
Breezy north winds push a colder and drier airmass across east
central Florida Sunday night, and clearing skies across much of
the area should allow for efficient radiative cooling. By Monday
morning, lows fall into the 30s across much of the area with
minimum wind chill values in the 20s. There is increasing
confidence for Cold Weather Advisories needed for portions of the
area Monday morning. Additionally monitoring moderate to high
probabilities for freezing conditions across portions of northern
Lake and inland Volusia. High temperatures Monday hold in the mid
to upper 50s from Osceola/ central Brevard northward while
reaching the low to mid 60s across portions of Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure builds across the southeast U.S.
Tuesday, moving into the western Atlantic late Wednesday. Models
then diverge as a frontal boundary moves into the eastern U.S.
Although gradually warming each day, low temperatures hold below
normal Tuesday and Wednesday with some areas still holding onto 30s.
Monitoring low probabilities for wind chills near Cold Weather
Advisory thresholds Tuesday morning, particularly across the north
interior. Northerly winds shift onshore Wednesday, bringing
temperatures closer to seasonal by Thursday morning and widely
spreading the 70s by Thursday afternoon. Mostly dry with isolated
showers returning to the forecast by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Poor boating across southern legs of the Gulf Stream this evening as
seas up to 6 ft gradually subside. A surface ridge axis stretched
over the waters will promote a brief period of favorable boating
Saturday with light winds and seas 2-4 ft. Offshore winds then
increase to 15-20 kts Sunday morning ahead of the next cold
front. Shifting northwest winds further increase to 20-25 kts and
build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream behind the cold front Sunday
afternoon. Brief improvements in winds and seas are forecast late
Monday and into Tuesday with another surge of northerly winds
causing deteriorating boating conditions again mid week. Scattered
showers are forecast with the front on Sunday. Otherwise, dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1237 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions forecast through tonight into Saturday. High
pressure ridge axis extending across Florida will keep winds
overall light and variable, with just a weak E/NE onshore flow
(~6-7knots) forming along the coast this afternoon. SCT clouds
around 3-4kft may develop along the Treasure Coast this evening
and spread northward/inland through tomorrow, with increasing
cirrus clouds around 25kft late tonight into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Fire weather conditions improve through this weekend as moisture
increases. However, dry air settling behind a cold front on Sunday
will lead to sensitive conditions as minimum RH values fall below 35
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  38  71  50  62 /   0   0  10  50
MCO  44  71  54  63 /   0   0  10  40
MLB  43  72  55  71 /   0   0  10  30
VRB  45  74  55  74 /   0  10  10  20
LEE  41  72  50  60 /   0   0  20  50
SFB  42  72  52  63 /   0   0  10  50
ORL  45  72  54  64 /   0   0  10  40
FPR  43  74  54  75 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion