Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

182
FXUS62 KMLB 091850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

- A high risk of rip currents persists at area beaches through
  early this week, along with lingering poor boating conditions
  in the Gulf Stream and near inlets.

- Drought conditions and lower humidity values through midweek
  combine to produce fire sensitive conditions.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures return this week with
  any notable rain chances likely holding off towards next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will slide
southeast and offshore over the West Atlantic, with ridge axis
extending westward across Florida. This will continue overall light
winds, dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Lows tonight will
still be below normal in the 40s, but highs on Tuesday will be
near to slightly above normal in the mid to upper 70s for many
locations. While models aren`t as aggressive with fog development
tonight as they were for this morning, still can`t rule out
patchy fog development across much of the area overnight tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Localized visibilities of a mile or
less will be possible.

At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will
continue through midweek due to an incoming long-period swell. Do
not let the warmer conditions catch you off guard. Entering the
water is discouraged!

Wednesday-Friday...A weak front moving into the Southeast U.S. on
Wednesday will begin to move into Florida before stalling near or
just northeast of the area into Thursday. This boundary may then
linger just offshore or fade into late week, keeping any potential
for showers mostly over the coastal waters. However, a developing
weak onshore flow into late week may be able to transport a few
showers onshore along the coast. Otherwise, conditions are forecast
to remain mostly dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal, with highs mostly in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s.
May see max temps reach the low 80s across the interior, mainly
south of Orlando on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A fairly stout
shortwave trough will drive a cold front through the area either
late Sunday or into Sunday night. As moisture surges ahead of the
approaching front, models try to spit out some light precip chances
(20-30pct) on Sat night, then higher chances (40-60pct) ahead of the
front into Sun. Timing differences between models in the frontal
passage and overall available instability keep confidence in any
storm potential low for the time being. Temperatures continue
generally above climo this weekend ahead of the front, with
temperatures then forecast to only fall back to more normal values
early next week behind this boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure builds southeast and offshore the
Mid-Atlantic coast, settling just east of the area across the West
Atlantic. Winds will remain generally light (less than 10 knots)
become S/SW into tonight and W/SW Tuesday morning, with winds then
turning onshore near the coast with the developing east coast sea
breeze in the afternoon. Long period swells, with periods ~12-14sec
diminish to 3-5 feet late this afternoon, but seas up to 6 feet will
build back into the Gulf Stream waters, mainly south of the Cape
into Tuesday, continuing to produce poor boating conditions.
However, seas then diminish once again to 5 feet or less Tuesday
night. The long period swells will also make for poor to hazardous
boating conditions near inlets during the outgoing tide.

Wednesday-Saturday...Front moves into the Southeast U.S. and
eventually into the waters on Thursday. This boundary will then
either stall across the waters or fade through late week and into
early this weekend, maintaining the potential for isolated to
scattered showers over the waters. Offshore winds Wednesday will
eventually become onshore into late week and Saturday. Wind speeds
are forecast to remain below 15 knots through much of the forecast
period, but are forecast to increase briefly to 15-20 knots offshore
Wednesday night. Seas 3-5 feet Wednesday fall to 2-4 feet Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A weak sea breeze will shift winds onshore along the coast this
afternoon, remaining less than 10 kts. Otherwise, light and
variable winds become established out of the southwest late
tomorrow morning. Models show only a limited signal for patchy fog
overnight, and VIS/CIG impacts are not forecast at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

High pressure will influence the weather across east central FL
through midweek and will keep winds relatively light, generally
around 5-10 mph. A weak front will then move into Florida on
Thursday, eventually stalling near to northeast of the area.
Offshore winds will become onshore along the coast during the
afternoon Tuesday, and then are forecast to remain offshore through
the day Wednesday as offshore flow strengthens slightly. The airmass
remains mostly dry, with near to below critical Min RH values
forecast, especially on Tuesday. Min RH values are forecast to fall
as low as 25-35% across the interior and along the coast of Volusia
and northern Brevard County on Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday
lowest RH values around 35% are forecast inland and south of
Orlando. Smoke dispersion will be Fair to Generally Good on Tuesday,
and Very Good to Excellent for much of the area into Wednesday.

Patchy fog, producing localized visibilities of a mile or less
will be possible late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  50  79  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  74  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  49  76  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  46  77  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  78  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  78  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  48  76  50  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion