Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

109
FXUS62 KMLB 160750
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect
  across most of east central Florida through 9 AM.

- Another cold front is forecast to move across the Florida
  peninsula on Sunday, with a low chance for showers out ahead of
  the front.

- Cold conditions return to east central Florida behind the cold
  front on Sunday, resulting in cold mornings through at least
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Today-Tonight...A chilly start to this Friday morning, with
morning lows still forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s across
much of east central Florida. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory remain in effect across most of east central Florida
through 9 AM. If traveling outside, be sure to dress
appropriately. Keep plants protected and pets inside until it
warms through the day.

An area of high pressure will remain in place across the Gulf
today, extending eastward towards the Florida peninsula. Dry and
cool conditions are forecast locally, with afternoon temperatures
forecast to remain below-normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s. With
the high pressure overhead, sunny skies will be present and winds
will be light and variable. These conditions are forecast to
persist into the overnight hours, and there is a low chance for
some patchy frost development around areas of Lake George late
tonight into early Saturday morning. Temperatures tonight will
also remain below- normal in the mid 30s to mid 40s across most of
east central Florida. With winds being light, wind chill values
will remain close to forecasted temperatures.

Saturday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow aloft on Saturday begins to
erode as a mid-level trough digs southward across the central US,
causing the surface high pressure overhead to slowly weaken
through the day. Mostly dry conditions are forecast locally on
Saturday, though developing onshore flow could lead to some
isolated shower activity across the local Atlantic waters that
pushes onshore along the Treasure Coast (20% chance). Temperatures
warm to near-normal on Saturday, with highs in the low 70s and
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

By Sunday, the mid-level trough will continue to swing eastward
across the US, with its associated surface cold front moving
towards Florida and sinking south of east central Florida by
Sunday evening. Rain chances are forecast to increase into Sunday
out ahead of the front. There continues to be some discrepancy
between how much moisture will be available ahead of the front and
the GFS remains the drier solution. Maintained a 20-40% chance of
showers across the area. The environment continues to look
unfavorable for storm development with this activity, so have also
left out any mention of storms within the forecast. Behind the
front, northwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph possible. This will help advect a colder, drier air mass
towards east central Florida, leading to a return of below-normal
temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday-Thursday...Behind the cold front on Sunday, an area of
high pressure is forecast to build across the southeastern US,
with a reinforcing cold front moving across Florida on Tuesday.
Dry conditions persist locally into the start of next week as a
result, with the next best chance for rain looking to be on
Thursday driven by onshore flow and increasing moisture locally.

The main concern in the extended period will be a return of
below- normal temperatures across east central Florida starting
Monday morning and continuing through at least Wednesday morning.
Winds around 10 mph will also lead to wind chill values falling
below 35 degrees across much of east central Florida on Monday and
Tuesday mornings, and considerations for another Cold Weather
Advisory may be needed. Conditions look to be a bit more
borderline on Wednesday morning, but it will still be a chilly
start to the morning. There also continues to be a signal for
patchy frost development across rural portions of east central
Florida Monday and Tuesday mornings, but this will continue to be
monitored. Afternoon highs will gradually warm through the
extended period, and low temperatures also warm closer to normal
values by Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions are anticipated to gradually
improve today as high pressure settles across the area. Winds are
forecast to fall to around 10 knots out of the north this
morning, with seas responding by slowly subsiding to below 6 feet.
Generally favorable conditions return on Saturday with seas of 1
to 3 feet. Another cold front is forecast to push southward across
the local waters on Sunday, with increasing rain chances out
ahead of the front and increasing winds and seas forecast behind
the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will return to the
Gulf Stream waters Sunday night into Monday as seas reach 7 feet
and northwest winds reach 15 to 23 knots, and a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed once again. High pressure then builds once
more across the waters behind the front, with winds falling to 10
to 15 knots and seas remaining around 3 to 6 feet through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1206 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR. Gusty NWRLY winds continue to diminish thru the night. Winds
light/variable on Fri, but will transition onshore at the coast
in the afternoon. Skies generally unlimited, though may see some
SCT stratocu at the southern coastal sites in the afternoon on
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of
east central Florida today. A cool, dry air mass remains in place
today, resulting in minimum RH values falling into the 25 to 35
percent range near and northwest of the I-4 corridor. Values range
from 35 to 50 percent elsewhere. High pressure located across the
Gulf and Florida will cause winds to be light and variable at
times today, helping to keep the area away from critical fire
weather thresholds.

Looking ahead, fire weather conditions continue to improve
through this weekend as moisture increases. However, another
passing cold front on Sunday and dry air settling behind the front
will lead to sensitive conditions once again on Monday as minimum
RH values fall once again below 35 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  42  70  51 /   0   0   0  20
MCO  60  44  72  53 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  61  48  72  54 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  63  48  72  54 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  58  41  71  51 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  59  43  72  53 /   0   0   0  20
ORL  59  45  72  54 /   0   0   0  20
FPR  64  48  73  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion