Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

353
FXUS62 KMLB 181947
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

- A strong cold front continues to move southward across the
  Treasure Coast this afternoon, and gusts up to 58 mph have been
  observed immediately along the front. Breezy conditions continue
  this evening as gusts gradually settle.

- Temperatures are quickly falling behind the front, with a return
  of well below-normal temperatures and bitter wind chills through
  early this week. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory
  will both be in effect for portions of east central Florida late
  tonight into early Monday.

- Dry through mid week with a return of scattered showers Thursday
  and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Current-Early Monday... A strong cold front has moved south of
Melbourne this afternoon continuing to pass south of the Treasure
Coast. Gusty winds have been observed along and behind the front
with earlier observations around 45-55 mph across the Orlando
Metro. Warmer temperatures and more sunshine across the south has
allowed more mixing of winds above the surface. A peak wind gust
of 58 mph (50 kts) was observed at the Melbourne International
Airport as the front passed and prompted the Wind Advisory to be
upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Brevard, Okeechobee, Indian
River, St. Lucie, and Martin county through 5pm. Elsewhere, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect through 4pm. Behind the initial wind
surge, gusts up to 40 mph remain possible for a few hours, then
remaining breezy into the evening. Beyond wind impacts,
temperatures are rapidly decreasing behind the front. Early this
afternoon, temperatures reached the 70s, including across the far
north at Leesburg where the high was 72 degrees. As of 2PM,
temperatures have already plummeted into the upper 40s and low 50s
north of Orlando. Tonight and into early Monday morning, low
temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s across much of east
central Florida. A Freeze Warning continues for Volusia, Lake,
Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties. Continued north winds
around 5-10 mph will drop wind chill values into the 20s, and a
Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9am for all east
central Florida (excluding coastal Martin county).

Monday-Wednesday... High pressure builds across the southeast U.S.
early this week, shifting into the western Atlantic on Wednesday.
Northerly winds are maintained Monday, gradually turning onshore
Tuesday and into Wednesday. The primary headline early this week
will be continued cold temperatures. Cold weather products including
the Freeze Warning and the Cold Weather Advisory continue through
9AM Monday morning. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will
remain below normal Monday afternoon, holding in the mid to upper
50s near and north of Orlando. Further south, highs peak in the low
to mid 60s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Another cold
start is forecast Tuesday morning with lows ranging the mid 30s to
mid 40s. Northerly winds around 5-10 mph will drop wind chill values
into the 30s across much of east central Florida again Tuesday
morning nearing Wind Chill Advisory criteria across portions of the
north interior. A warming trend begins Tuesday as winds shift
onshore and height anomalies build aloft. Highs ranging the low 60s
to low 70s Tuesday increase into the low to mid 70s areawide on
Wednesday. Dry through the period with no mentionable rain chances.

Thursday-Saturday... Uncertainty exists in the synoptic pattern
through the long term forecast period. A weak surface low attempts
to develop near the Bahamas with a weak boundary extending into the
Gulf. Global model solutions diverge as the next cold front moves
offshore the eastern U.S. into late week and the low near the
Bahamas retreats. There is currently low to moderate confidence
for scattered showers across central Florida Thursday and into
Friday due to a wide variety of global ensemble solutions.
Conditions then trend drier on Saturday. High temperatures are
forecast near to above normal ranging the 70s Thursday and Friday
increasing into the 80s for southern locations on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Marine conditions are quickly deteriorating across the local waters
this afternoon as a cold front moves southward. West winds are
shifting northwest as the front passes, increasing to 25-30 kts
with gusts to gale force along the initial wind surge. Increasing
winds will build seas 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream this afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all legs of the central
Florida Atlantic waters. Winds diminish to 15-20 kts after
midnight allowing the nearshore Volusia SCA to expire at 1AM and
the nearshore Brevard SCA to expire at 7AM Monday. However, Small
Craft Advisories will remain in effect through late Monday
afternoon as hazardous seas slowly subside. North winds shift
onshore into Wednesday as high pressure moves off the eastern U.S.
coast. Weak low pressure near the Bahamas and another approaching
cold front will keep poor marine conditions through mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Strong cold front is pushing through the area, with a strong NW
wind surge occurring behind the front. Peak gusts to 40-55 mph
have been recently observed across the I-4 corridor
(DAB/SFB/MCO/ISM). Front is forecast to reach KMLB-KSUA from
around 19-20Z, so expect similar peak gusts at these sites as the
front quickly blows through. These higher gusts will be brief,
but breezy to windy conditions with gusts up to 35-40 mph will
continue for at least a couple hours behind the frontal passage.
Cigs will also drop to MVFR behind the front, with any showers
producing IFR/MVFR visibilities. Conditions will gradually
improve to VFR into the evening and overnight, as drier air moving
in behind the front will lead to decreasing clouds. Clear skies
forecast on Monday, with northerly winds around 10-15 knots and
gust up to 20 knots along the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast over
the next couple of days. Monday, minimum RH values will tank as dry
air settles across the area, with RH values falling below 35% across
the interior west of I-95. Periods of 10 to 15 mph winds will be
possible on Monday, leading to near-critical conditions at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  34  57  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  36  58  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  37  60  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  38  62  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  32  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  34  58  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  36  58  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  38  63  45  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ058-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion