Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

803
FXUS62 KMLB 111120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through Thursday, with values
  near record highs across the interior.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Thursday afternoon, with the
  approach of a cold front. Medium to high rain chances then persist
  into this weekend.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast late this
  week, as increasing winds cause seas to build.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the area today moves offshore
into the Atlantic through tonight, as a cold front approaches the
area. Dry air aloft will help to suppress any convection today,
with PoPs below 10% area-wide. Light southerly winds this morning
will back southeasterly this afternoon as the sea breeze develops
and moves inland. Winds will be strongest at the coast at around
10-15 mph. The main story will be hot temperatures this afternoon.
Near-record highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are forecast
generally west of I-95. See the Climate section for details on
records. Coastal areas south of the Cape will be aided by the sea
breeze and cooler ocean temperatures, remaining in the mid-80s.
Tonight, overnight lows remain in the 60s.

Thursday-Friday...Low pressure moving through southern Quebec will
drag a cold front through the local area Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night. Mostly dry conditions prevail through much
of the day, before scattered showers and storms begin to move
southward through the peninsula into the evening. PoPs 40-70%,
with the highest chances north of I-4. As the front moves south of
the area by Friday morning, additional shower and storm chances
will linger through the day, due to a passing shortwave aloft. The
highest coverage looks to be generally south of the Cape, where
PWATs remain above 1". CAPE through the period looks to remain
fairly modest (near of below 1000 J/kg). However, could see a few
strong storms develop due to building dry air in the mid-levels
and cool 500 mb temperatures (-10 to -12 C). Although, increasing
dry air aloft would also inhibit development. The main threats
with the strongest storms will be gusty winds, small hail,
lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours.

Breezy southwesterly winds 10-15 mph, with gusts near 20-25 mph,
and dry conditions into Thursday afternoon will maintain hot
temperatures. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to near 90 for
most areas, notably for southern portions of the forecast area.
Even coastal communities that avoided upper 80s (and records) earlier
in the week will feel the heat thanks to a pinned sea breeze. By
Friday, northerly winds behind the front veer quickly onshore,
with increased cloud cover and rain chances keeping highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s, with the
exception of northern Lake and Volusia Counties, which could see
upper 50s Friday morning.

Saturday-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis builds briefly back
towards the Florida peninsula this weekend. However, unsettled
weather aloft, with additional short waves, and increasing PWATs
creeping above 1.5" will maintain medium to high rain chances.
PoPs 50-70% Saturday increase further into Sunday, as winds veer
form onshore to southerly and advect in the highest moisture of
the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible, as the
mid-levels moisten and CAPE increases. Rain chances continue
through early next the week, with yet another cold front passage
Monday night. Temperatures in the lower 80s through Monday fall
below normal into mid-week behind the front and remain in the 60s
and lower 70s. Will see lows drop, as well, from the 60s to the
40s and 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through much of Thursday,
as high pressure moves over the area today and weakens ahead of an
approaching front. South to southeast winds this afternoon
increase to 10-15 kts, especially at the coast, as the sea breeze
develops. Winds then veer south to southwesterly Thursday. Seas
2-4 ft, with PoPs below 10% through early Thursday afternoon.

A cold front then moves through the local waters Thursday night,
veering winds northerly and increasing coverage of showers and
storms. A brief wind surge up to 20-25 kts Thursday night will
require Small Craft Advisories for most, if not all, of the local
marine zones. Regardless, these winds are forecast to build seas
to up to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream by Friday morning. Onshore
winds then prevail through Saturday, before veering southerly on
Sunday, as high pressure develops over the western Atlantic. Winds
10-15 kts, though they could approach 15-20 kts offshore Sunday
afternoon. Seas subside through the period, becoming 3-5 ft
Saturday and 2-4 ft Sunday. Medium to high rain chances with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue late week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Despite little signals from the models, patchy to dense fog has
managed to develop across portions of east central Florida. VIS
and CIG reductions for TIX and MLB through 13Z, with bouncy
conditions at VRB and FPR. Light winds become south to southeast
into mid morning. Winds then shift east-southeast as the sea
breeze passes this afternoon, increasing 10-14 kts along the
coast. Dry with no mentionable precip.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 11       Mar 12       Monthly March
DAB    89 1967      90 1935      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    88 2015      88 2001      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    88 1974      90 2001      94 3/20/2003
MCO    91 1918      89 2001      97 3/30/1907
MLB    89 1962      90 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    88 1986      88 2023      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    90 1997      89 1948      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  65  85  61 /   0   0  70  50
MCO  90  68  88  64 /   0   0  60  40
MLB  84  66  87  67 /   0   0  50  60
VRB  85  65  88  67 /   0   0  40  60
LEE  90  66  85  60 /   0   0  70  40
SFB  90  66  88  61 /   0   0  60  50
ORL  90  68  87  63 /   0   0  60  50
FPR  85  64  88  65 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion