Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

758
FXUS62 KMLB 050609
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

- There is a risk for patchy dense fog each morning through at
  least the middle of the week. Motorists should watch for sudden
  changes in visibility.

- Turning warmer than normal, with many spots reaching the lower
  80s late this week. Mainly dry conditions prevail.

- Confidence in the timing of the next cold front remains low for
  next weekend. Cooler weather may begin as early as Sunday, but
  rain chances are still limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

On the heels of a disturbance that has now exited east of the
Bahamas, mid-level height rises are underway across Florida
this morning. A ridge axis, currently from the Bay of Campeche to
Minnesota, is slowly progressing eastward. A low-amplitude shortwave
is rippling through the quasi-zonal flow over the Deep South this
morning, expected to reach the Western Atlantic by tonight. Total
moisture (PW) values have already dropped below one inch, but may
briefly surge slightly above normal along the coast later today.

The 04/12Z grand ensemble was in excellent agreement with the
large-scale pattern evolution through the work week. For the
Sunshine State, height rises will continue through Friday as the
H5 ridge slowly works across the Gulf. At the surface, an axis of
high pressure settles overhead through the work week, with a rather
loose pressure gradient through at least Thursday. The combination
of ridging and broad adiabatic, downsloping effects from the
zonal flow across the continental U.S. support a broad area of
positive PBL temperature anomalies east of the Rockies, extending
over the state from Tuesday through at least Saturday. H85 (5kft)
temperatures level off between +12 and +13 deg C during this
period.

By this weekend, a longwave trough pushes into the Central and
Eastern United States. Cluster analysis reveals a slight trend
toward a faster solution, with 2/3 of members supporting a cold
frontal passage in Florida by early Sunday. The key to the timing
here appears to be how the members handle the phasing of the polar
and subtropical jets, and whether some energy gets left behind
over the Southwest. A more consolidated trough, led by GEFS and
AI-GEFS members, would force an earlier (and stronger) frontal
passage. On the flip side, if some subtropical energy gets left
behind over the Chihuahuan and Sonoran Deserts, the front should
be a little weaker and slower.

Negative temperature anomalies are likely early next week, but
there is disagreement on the timing and strength of the associated
cold advection. IQRs via statistical guidance readily illustrate
these discrepancies, with 25th-75th percentile spread for high
temperatures jumping from 2-3 deg F on Saturday to 12-17 deg F on
Sunday! In either case, moisture advection looks limited.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today & Tonight...

Lingering from yesterday, very low stratus covers areas from
Greater Orlando northward this morning. To the south, skies are
mostly clear, but some patchy fog and low stratus is forming. Light
drainage winds are contributing to a sharp near-surface inversion,
saturating in the lowest 1000 ft or so. This will continue to
promote fog and/or stratus development through mid-morning. There
remains a low-medium chance for locally dense fog with visibilities
approaching 1/4 mile, especially over the interior. Trends will
be monitored, and a Dense Fog Advisory would be required if it
becomes more widespread.

Cloud cover should scour out over the northern half of the district,
allowing more sunshine than Sunday. The weak disturbance over N
Florida may trigger scattered showers over the Atlantic, with
a few possibly reaching the coast as winds turn onshore (

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion