Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

690
FXUS62 KMLB 031906
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
206 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Fog that could become locally dense possible tonight, highest
  chances along and north of the I-4 corridor.

- Breezy onshore flow will produce rough surf and choppy seas.
  There is a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches today
  and will likely continue through this week.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop over the
  Atlantic and push inland most afternoons through early next
  week. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms
  Thursday onward.

- Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer with well above normal
  afternoon highs reaching 85F-87F over the interior mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft building over the eastern
Gulf and Florida shifts eastward, with surface high pressure over
the southeast seaboard trailing behind. Onshore flow enhanced by
the east coast sea breeze could produce wind gusts up to 20 mph
this afternoon, particularly along the coast. A slug of higher
low-level moisture (PWATS 1.0-1.2") embedded in the onshore flow
is supporting isolated to scattered showers across a good chunk of
East Central Florida this afternoon, from parts of the Orlando
Metro south to Lake Okeechobee. A few lucky areas where heavier
showers (despite the very dry air aloft) or training bands
developed have received around 0.25" of rain, and a couple spots
over 0.5", but for most 0.1" or less is what can be expected. Have
a 20% chance of showers for pretty much all of ECFL except
Volusia and adjacent Lake/Seminole counties through the rest of
the afternoon, then rain chances shift back offshore/along the
coast overnight. Can`t completely rule out a rogue lightning
strike in the afternoon, but chances are very low (10% or less).
Temperatures topping out on the warm side in the U70s-L80s, warmer
inland, then cooling into the U50s-U60s, coolest to the north
tonight.

Conditions are somewhat favorable for fog late tonight into early
Wednesday morning as the center of the ridge aloft moves overhead
and dew points creep up, but whether overnight winds become light
enough for development is up in the air. Generally good signal
for at least patchy fog along and north of the I-4 corridor, which
could become dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile.

Wednesday-Monday...Rinse and repeat. Ridging aloft shifts from
over the eastern Gulf and Florida into the nearby west Atlantic
waters late Thursday into early Friday, then gradually weakens
going into the weekend and early next week as a long wave trough
swings across the CONUS. Surface high pressure becomes nearly
stationary as it also builds from the southeast seaboard into the
nearby Atlantic waters over the Sargasso Sea through the weekend,
continuing onshore (easterly to southeasterly) flow as the ridge
axis remains north of the area. Enhancement from the east coast
sea breeze could again produce some breezy/gusty conditions in
the afternoons. Moisture and temperatures will continue to trend
upward. Rain chances more limited limited Wednesday, 20% or less,
but then pick up to 20-50% Thursday through Saturday with the
highest chances well inland as PWATs gradually increase to
1.1-1.4", before settling back to 20% Sunday and Monday. Could see
some lightning storms (20% or less chance) in the afternoons
Thursday onward. Ensemble mean rainfall amounts through Monday
night range from 0.2-0.5", higher to the north, but lucky spots
that get deeper convection/repeated rounds could receive locally
higher amounts of an inch or more.

Warming trend continues through the weekend, with highs gradually
working their way from the U70s-L80s Wednesday to the L-U80s
(well above normal) early next week, warmest inland as onshore
flow moderates the coast some. A few low hanging inland daily high
temperature records could be threatened, but for the most part
the forecast falls short of records by 3-5 degrees. Overnight
lows in the 60s also well above normal, and flirting with a few
low hanging daily record warm lows.

While temperatures may be inviting for the beaches, the persistent
onshore flow will cause swell to build, and a high risk of life-
threatening rip currents is likely to continue through the weekend
and into early next week. Entering the surf is not advised.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

High pressure centered over the Sargasso Sea becomes nearly
stationary through the rest of the week, keeping the ridge axis
north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, and continuing
moderate to fresh onshore flow. Boating conditions in the Gulf
Stream remain generally poor from seas 4-6 ft and winds 10-20 kts.
Small craft should exercise caution. Closer to shore, boating
conditions more favorable albeit on the choppy side today with
winds 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and
isolated lightning storms will be embedded in the onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Onshore-moving showers continue across most terminals this
afternoon, excluding LEE and DAB. Brief VIS and CIG reductions
will be possible. Winds remain out of the east at 10 to 15 knots,
gusting to 20 knots along the coast. Winds become more
northeasterly tonight, easing to around 5 knots. Patchy fog
development will be possible across areas north of the I-4
corridor, with best chances for development within vicinity of LEE
and DAB after 06Z. Will monitor trends for the remaining interior
terminals and amend as needed. Onshore winds return after 15Z
around 10 knots. Lower chances for onshore-moving showers
tomorrow, but still cannot be fully ruled out for the coastal
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  79  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  65  82  65  84 /  10  10   0  40
MLB  65  79  66  80 /  10  10  10  30
VRB  65  80  66  81 /  10  10  10  30
LEE  62  83  64  85 /  10  10   0  30
SFB  62  82  64  84 /  10  10   0  30
ORL  64  82  65  84 /  10  10   0  30
FPR  65  80  66  81 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion