








National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
510 FXUS62 KMLB 040811 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 311 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 - A Frost Advisory remain in effect for North Lake and Inland Volusia counties through 8 AM. - Increased southwest flow and low humidity will result another fire sensitive day, mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor. - A good chance for showers tonight into Thursday. Below normal temperatures follow into late week, but not as cold as this past weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 Today-Tonight...Finally some seasonable temperatures. Briefly. Elongated high pressure extending from Florida into the Atlantic departs eastward ahead of an approaching cold front associated with a low pressure system developing over and tracking east across the Deep South. Temperatures this afternoon recover into the 60-70s, with highs topping out in the L-M70s, then cooling off into the M40s-L50s tonight. Sensitive fire weather conditions continue across along and north of I-4 as humidity drops below 40% and southwest winds increase to 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Rain-wise, remaining mostly dry through the evening (could see an isolated shower graze the Treasure Coast during the day), then chances increase tonight to 50-70% as the front approaches. Only moisture of note (PWATs 1.1-1.3") will be right along the frontal boundary, but a trough digging well down to Florida will provide sufficient upper level support for a band of light to maybe moderate showers pushing through Central Florida, mainly between midnight tonight and Thursday afternoon. A few embedded heavy showers will be possible, but chances for lightning storms are less than 10%. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts once again look meager and likely won`t put a dent in the worsening drought conditions. The NBM QPF is being incredibly optimistic, calling for 0.25-0.5" across most of the area, and a band of 0.5-1.0" extending into the Orlando metro. However, other guidance is much less enthusiastic, with HREF probabilities for more than 0.5" effectively zero, and ECM ensemble probabilities only 10-20% near to north of the I-4 corridor. The latter are consistent with HRRR and RRFS which call for a quarter inch or less of rainfall, except one or two lucky spots that may get around half an inch. At the beaches, a High Risk of life-threatening currents continues due to lingering long period swell. Thursday-Friday...A pair of cold fronts bring back chilly weather, but not as cold or as long lasting as the outbreak we just closed out. The first front, belonging to a low pressure system pushing offshore the Southeast Seaboard early Thursday, reaches our northern counties around daybreak and departs to the southeast in the afternoon. A band of scattered to numerous showers (PoPs 50-70%) ongoing in the morning ahead of the front will continue to press southeast through the afternoon. As mentioned in the previous section, most places will see a quarter inch or less of rainfall, but one or two spots could receive around half an inch. Breezy/gusty conditions develop Thursday afternoon behind the front as winds shift to the northwest and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Winds could briefly further increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon and evening, before settling down in the late evening to early overnight. Highs Thursday top out in the U50-U60s. Parts of East Central Florida could see the return of freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning, notably the far northern counties and the rural interior south of Orlando. Chances of these spots reaching freezing have dropped a bit since the last package to generally 20-40%, up to 50% in far northwestern Volusia. While there is pretty good confidence the rest of the area won`t see freezing temperatures, with lows in the M-U30s, overnight winds 5-10 mph will push wind chills into the U20s-L30s across the area. Patchy frost will be possible even if temperatures don`t reach freezing in wind sheltered locations, or areas where winds go light. Even if frost and freezing temperatures aren`t realized, wind chills will remain a concern. Residents and visitors should again protect plants, people, pets, and pipes from the cold. Cool and dry Friday as high pressure builds into the Gulf and towards Florida, with highs in the L-M60s. Winds could become gusty at times in the afternoon. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning recover into the L-M40s with wind chills in the U30s-L40s. Saturday-Tuesday...Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to the U60s-L70s, before the second front associated with a somewhat disorganized low pressure system over the Northeast, hot on the heels of the previous system lifting northeast off the Atlantic seaboard, pushes a reinforcing backdoor front through late Saturday. There is a higher than normal degree of uncertainty in the forecast, particularly temperatures Sunday, due to complex interactions between these two low pressure systems. Cooling from this second front is looking less effective than previous forecasts, only bring temperatures Sunday morning down to the L40s-L50s, possibly the U30s well north of I-4, then lows recover to the L40s-L50s Sunday night into Monday morning. Seasonable temperatures return Monday afternoon, and daresay East Central Florida could see some warmer weather by midweek. Dry conditions persist. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions, however in the Gulf Stream, seas remain a bit choppy and winds increase again late tonight. Elongated high pressure over Florida and the local Atlantic waters pushes offshore ahead of a cold front associated with a low pressure system developing over and tracking east across the Deep South. Winds largely variable at 5-10 kts through the day, with seas 2-4 ft. Late tonight winds begin to increase as the front approaches, becoming south 5-15 kts early tonight, shifting to the west 10-20 kts early Thursday morning, highest well offshore in the Gulf Stream. Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions deteriorate again, becoming poor to hazardous through the rest of the week from a pair of weather systems, then improving by Sunday. The low pressure system pushing offshore the Southeast seaboard will deepen while dragging a cold front across the Florida peninsula and the local Atlantic waters Thursday. Westerly winds 15-20 kts ahead of the front shift northwesterly and increase to 20-25 kts, peaking Thursday night. Seas 2-4 ft build to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream and 4-7 ft closer to shore in response. Winds and seas settle some on Friday but remain poor to hazardous, then pick back up again late Friday into Saturday as another front from a broad low pressure system pushing offshore the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic seaboard swings through the area. Could see better boating conditions in the nearshore waters by Saturday morning, but conditions likely to remain poor to hazardous in the Gulf Stream into Saturday evening from lingering seas. Winds become favorable by Sunday as high pressure builds over the Eastern US, but some choppy seas could persist. Scattered to numerous showers will accompany the first front late Wednesday into Thursday, then dry conditions return, including the second frontal passage late in the week. Lightning storms are not forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 VFR continue thru most of the TAF. Light/variable wind thru 15z, increasing to 10 knots thereafter. Winds mainly SW but veering SSE along the coast (SUA northward to MLB) thru the afternoon. A cold front approaches after 03z Thu., bringing VCSH and lower CIGs from NW to SE at most terminals Thu. morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 High pressure over Florida departs seaward today ahead of the next front. Light and largely variable winds this morning become southwesterly 5-10 mph this afternoon, shifting southeasterly along the coast from a weak sea breeze, then becoming light southwesterly to southerly overnight. Min RHs remain near critical values 35-40% along and north of I-4, increasing to 40-60% to the southeast. Afternoon dispersion values Very Good to Excellent. A band of scattered to numerous showers preceding the front will push through the area late tonight through Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts generally a quarter inch or less. The frontal boundary arrives at the northern counties around daybreak Thursday, and departs southeast of the area in the afternoon. Winds shift northeast and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph behind the front, peaking 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the late afternoon and evening, before settling down in the late evening to overnight. The band of scattered to numerous showers ongoing ahead of the will continue pressing southeast through the afternoon. Min RHs recover to 50-70%. Afternoon dispersion values Generally to Very Good.&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 48 59 34 / 0 60 50 0 MCO 72 50 60 37 / 0 60 60 0 MLB 71 49 63 35 / 10 60 70 0 VRB 72 48 64 36 / 10 50 70 0 LEE 71 49 59 34 / 10 70 40 0 SFB 72 49 60 35 / 0 60 50 0 ORL 73 51 60 37 / 0 60 60 0 FPR 72 48 65 35 / 10 50 60 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Schaper
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Today![]() Mostly Sunny |
Tonight![]() Partly Cloudy |
Thursday![]() Chance Showers and Breezy |
Thursday Night ![]() Mostly Clear and Breezy |
Friday![]() Sunny |
| Hi 71 °F | Lo 61 °F | Hi 72 °F | Lo 47 °F | Hi 65 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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