Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

034
FXUS62 KMLB 120006
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
806 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through Thursday, with values
  near record highs.

- Rain and storm chances increase into Thursday afternoon and
  evening, with the approach of a cold front. Medium to high rain
  chances then persist into this weekend.

- Deteriorating beach and boating conditions forecast late this
  week, as increasing winds cause seas to build.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently-Tonight...Very warm and dry conditions will continue
through the afternoon. Should still see record highs tied or broken
across some if not all inland sites (Orlando/Sanford/Leesburg) as
max temps reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Sea breeze
boundaries will push inland and collide near the I-4 corridor near
to just after sunset, but not forecasting any shower development to
occur as airmass remains quite dry (PW values 1.1-1.2"). Dry
conditions prevail overnight, with mild temps as lows only fall to
the mid to upper 60s. Hi-res guidance showing little to no support
for fog development tonight as low level S/SW winds increase
overnight, and HREF probabilities for visibilities less than a mile
are less than 10 percent. Can`t completely rule out patchy fog for
late tonight into early Thursday morning, but there is not enough
confidence to add it into the forecast at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Breezy southwest winds develop into Thursday as a
cold front approaches Florida in the morning and eventually moves
into central Florida late in the day and into the evening. It will
remain dry into much of the morning and early afternoon, with temps
remaining well above normal and nearing records (especially for the
Treasure Coast) as highs reach the mid to upper 80s. A band of
showers and isolated storms will move into the area ahead of the
front. This activity is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia counties
by mid afternoon Thursday and continue southward across the area
through late afternoon into the evening hours as it weakens. Rain
chances range from 60-70% north of Orlando and decrease to 30-50%
across the remainder of east central Florida through the
afternoon/evening time frame. Cape is modest around 500-1000 J/kg,
but still sufficient for some storm development to occur. Increasing
W/SW winds between 925-700mb (up to 20-35 knots) and drier air aloft
may lead to a few strong storms producing frequent lightning and
strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph. Cool 500mb temps around -10 to -12C
may also allow any stronger storms to produce small hail.

Frontal boundary will slow and eventually stall near to south of the
area through Thursday night into Friday. Winds quickly veer onshore,
with lingering moisture continuing scattered showers and isolated
storms across the area Friday. Greatest rain chances (up to 30-50
percent) are forecast near to south of Orlando. Highs will be
near to slightly above normal, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

Saturday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The Atlantic
ridge axis builds briefly back towards the Florida peninsula this
weekend. However, unsettled weather aloft, with additional short
waves, and increasing PWATs creeping above 1.5" will maintain medium
to high rain chances. PoPs 50-70% Saturday increase further into
Sunday, as winds veer from onshore to southerly and advect in the
highest moisture of the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms will remain
possible, as the mid-levels moisten and CAPE increases. Rain chances
continue through early next week, with a stronger cold frontal
passage Monday night. Temperatures in the 80s through Monday fall
below normal into mid-week behind the front and remain in the 60s
and lower 70s. Will see lows drop as well, from the 60s this weekend
to the 40s and 50s into Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Tonight-Friday...Atlantic high pressure extending across Florida
today will shift south and east as a cold front moves through the
Southeast U.S. and towards FL early Thursday. Poor boating
conditions develop offshore as south-southeast winds around 10-15
knots increase to 15-20 knots offshore into tonight through Thursday
morning. Winds then veer to the south-southwest tomorrow, before a
cold front pushes into the waters late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night, stalling south of the Cape. Hazardous boating
conditions develop late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as
front moves in, with winds becoming N/NE and increasing to 20-25
knots, building seas to 6-9 feet through Friday morning. Could also
see some occasional gusts to gale force north of the Cape into
Thursday evening as initial wind surge builds in. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued with this package starting for the Volusia
County waters at 5 PM Thursday and expanding across the rest of the
waters at 10 PM Thursday evening. Winds become onshore Friday and
decrease to 10-15 knots into the afternoon. However, hazardous seas
up to 7-8 feet will continue over the gulf stream waters through at
least Friday evening, with a Small Craft Advisory remaining in
place across these waters through that time frame.

It will remain dry through Thursday morning, and then a band of
showers and isolated storms will move into the waters ahead of the
front from mid afternoon Thursday into Thursday night (rain chances
increasing to 60-80%). Main threats from any storms will be
lightning strikes, small hail and strong gusty winds as they shift
offshore. Showers and isolated storms will then continue across the
waters into Friday (rain chances around 40-60%) as front lingers
across the area.

Saturday-Monday...Boating conditions improve briefly into Saturday
as onshore winds continue to decrease and seas fall to 3-5 feet.
However, high rain chances (up to 60-80%) continue into the weekend,
with isolated to scattered storms continuing to be possible. Boating
conditions then deteriorate once again into late weekend/early next
week, as winds veer to the south-southeast into Sunday and increase
up to 15-20 knots offshore, veering to the south-southwest into
Monday ahead of a stronger cold front. The cold front is currently
forecast to move through the waters into Monday night, with winds
increasing out of the north-northwest, producing hazardous boating
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 758 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions through at least tomorrow afternoon. Model guidance
is indicating that MVFR CIGs will develop tomorrow evening behind
the main band of convection and the cold front. Southeast winds
10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT this afternoon will become light and
variable overnight. Winds then become southwest and increase to
10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT by Thursday mid-morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers and storms are forecast out ahead
of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Have included VCTS starting
at 20/22Z for all terminals. Have not included any tempos at this
time, but some may be added when timing and confidence in creases.
Winds then northwest Thursday afternoon before becoming northerly
Thursday evening behind the front. Winds will decrease slightly
overnight to 08-13KT with gusts to around 20 KT at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 11       Mar 12       Monthly March
DAB    89 1967      90 1935      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    88 2015      88 2001      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    88 1974      90 2001      94 3/20/2003
MCO    91 1918      89 2001      97 3/30/1907
MLB    89 1962      90 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    88 1986      88 2023      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    90 1997      89 1948      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  85  60  77 /   0  70  40  20
MCO  67  87  63  80 /   0  50  30  30
MLB  67  86  65  79 /   0  40  50  30
VRB  66  87  66  80 /   0  40  50  40
LEE  67  84  59  80 /   0  60  30  20
SFB  67  87  61  80 /   0  60  30  20
ORL  68  86  62  80 /   0  50  30  30
FPR  64  87  64  80 /   0  40  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion