Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

855
FXUS62 KMLB 221749
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1249 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Scattered, fast-moving showers and isolated storms with today`s
  cold front will not be nearly enough to dent the worsening
  drought.

- Windy and much drier air will produce critical fire weather
  conditions this afternoon through Monday.

- Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas develop behind the front
  today and continue through Monday night. Gale-force gusts and
  seas building to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream.

- A blast of dangerously cold wind chills arrives on Monday night.
  Wind chills in the 20s are anticipated for much of the area. The
  risk for freezing temperatures and frost have increased early
  this week, especially over northern areas and the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today-Tonight...Winter makes a comeback. A strong cold front will
sweep across the area today preceded by a band of showers and
isolated storms. While chance for measurable rain is high (~60%),
rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25" most areas due
to fast moving showers. A few storms are possible south of
Orlando as better sfc heating allows daytime temps to reach the
low to mid 80s. A narrow band of instability with CAPE values
around 750 J/kg will support a small chance for deep convection
(thunder). Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher in
sharply colder and much drier air this afternoon from north to
south behind the front. The combination of low RH with wind will
produce critical fire weather conditions across north/central
sections, hence the Red Flag Warning. This is an unusual
situation in that critical fire weather conditions will extend
well past sunset. Less confident of Red flag conditions in
southern Brevard so have kept them in the Fire Weather Watch in
case they need to be upgraded later.

Temperatures will fall quickly this eve reaching the mid 30s to
lower 40s Mon morning. A persistent NW wind of 10-15 mph and gusty
will produce lowest wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for most of EC FL except
Treasure coast and south Brevard barrier islands.

Mon-Tue...Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be 15-20
degrees below normal, only reaching the mid to upper 50s with near
60 in Martin county. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon
combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather
conditions. Confidence was high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning Monday.

The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory
is likely to be needed again, this time for most if not all the
FA with lows in the 30s and lowest wind chill values in the mid
to upper 20s due to a northwest breeze holding near 10 mph.
Probability for freezing temperatures near 30/lower 30s is rising
(up to 70%) for interior sections (outside of urbanized Orlando
corridor) on Monday night/Tue AM so a Freeze Watch has been
issued. Less wind Tue as high pressure center approaches over the
northern Gulf. Still very chilly but most areas will at least
"warm" into the low to mid 60s under full sun.

Tue night-Sat...High pressure center will settle over the area
Tue night and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies,
this will produce excellent radiational cooling and another chance
for freezing temperatures over the interior in the lower 30s.
Elsewhere, these conditions will produce the best chance for frost
during this cold outbreak where temps fall into the mid 30s which
should encompass much of EC FL.

High pressure will push east of the area Wed and developing
southerly flow will allow temps to warm back up quickly with max
temps in the low to mid 70s Wed and reaching low to mid 80s Fri-
Sat. Dry conditions persist with the next chance for showers and
storms arriving Friday associated with the next cold front which
is currently forecast to stall over north/central Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Deteriorating boating conditions today with hazardous to dangerous
conditions through Mon night. A strong cold front will surge
across the local Atlc waters today bringing scattered to numerous
showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and
gusty NW winds will develop behind the front this afternoon and
quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Small Craft
Advisories overspread all the waters through the day with a Gale
Warning offshore Volusia and Brevard late this afternoon thru
tonight for frequent gusts to Gale force (34 knots). The Gale
should not need to be extended in time but the SCA will be. Seas
will rapidly build to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight and early
Mon. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north
wind component will keep a choppy 6-7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream.
High pressure will become centered over the FL peninsula Tue
night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge axis across
south FL. Winds quickly develop a S/SW component Wed and into Thu
allowing seas to fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream Wed and 2-3 FT
all waters Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Low stratus clouds associated with a cold front that is passing
through ECFL this afternoon will linger through late
afternoon, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGs lingering this afternoon.
Have included TEMPOs for MVFR CIGs for KISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB
through 20Z. Scattered lightning storms are ongoing. Have included
TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA with MVFR CIGs for TIX- MLB through 19Z and
from VRB-SUA through 20Z. Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon
with west to southwest winds around 15-20 KT gusting 25-30KT.
Skies will become clear with VFR conditions behind the front
later this afternoon/evening and will remain VFR/SKC through the
rest of the TAF package. Winds will continue to be breezy and
gusty overnight, with wind speeds at 12-15KT gusting 18-22KT
before increasing once again to 15-20 KT and gusting 20-25 KT by
mid Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A strong cold front will cross the area today and bring a chance for
showers but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast. Isolated
lightning storms will be possible mainly south of Orlando. Northwest
winds behind the front will increase 15 mph gusting 25-30 mph and
advect much drier air into central Florida. As a result, critically
low RH values of 30-35% will develop across northern and central
sections late in the day and through this evening. More widespread
Red flag conditions will occur Monday with long duration of critical
RH values 20-30% and NW winds near 15 mph gusting near 25 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  36  56  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  40  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  38  58  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  39  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  38  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  38  56  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  40  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  39  60  31  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144-247-347.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647.

     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547.

     Fire Weather Watch until midnight EST tonight for FLZ447-547-647-
     747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ570-572.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion