Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

516
FXUS62 KMLB 131134
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
634 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- A little warmer today with dry conditions continuing. Sunshine
  will be filtered through high clouds at times.

- The next cold front will push through during Sunday but will
  come through mostly dry. Scattered showers and a storm or two
  will affect Treasure coast/Okeechobee.

- Breezy to windy conditions develop Sunday evening/overnight as
  strong high pressure builds in behind the front. These winds
  will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions Sun
  night/Mon, with high surf and beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Today/tonight...High pressure ridge axis draped across north
central FL will weaken and push seaward. Dry conditions persist
today with light winds turning onshore in a sea breeze around 10
mph south of the Cape. There will be some increase in high clouds
filtering the sun at times as well as some fair weather cumulus.
Max temps will warm into the mid and upper 70s, slightly above
normal for mid Dec. Tonight, moisture lifts northward from south
FL. Along with considerable cloudiness there will be scattered
showers and possibly a storm or two after midnight lifting
northward into Okeechobee and Treasure coast counties. Across
northern sections, there is a better chance for fog across Volusia
county, spreading southward toward metro Orlando.

Sun-Mon...Ongoing showers across southern sections Sun morning
will move NE and offshore onto the Atlc as a cold front pushes
steadily southward across the area during the day. A NW breeze
will develop initially behind the front. Then strong high pressure
(1040mb) over the central US builds SE into FL and tightens the
NW-N pressure gradient late Sun and esp Sun night. This will
result in a period of windy conditions along the coast with Wind
Advisories likely Sun night into early Monday. While it will
become noticeably cooler with max temps holding in the 60s on
Monday, because the winds turn onshore so quickly, the cold
continental airmass will rapidly modify over EC FL sparing us any
freeze concerns.

These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and
minor beach erosion Sun night into Mon. Fortunately the duration
will be very short as the high pressure weakens steadily as it
reaches the Carolina coast late Mon. The high tide of most concern
will be early Mon between 4am-5am. A High Surf Advisory may be
needed for breaking waves of 7-9 FT.

Tue-Fri...The high pressure will shift eastward over the Atlc. A
trailing ridge axis will remain near 30N lat so a general easterly
flow will dominate Tue-Wed at 10-15 mph veering SE Thu 10 mph. The
next cold front is forecast to approach Fri but lack of moisture
looks to limit rain chances. Temperatures will undergo a warming
trend each day reaching the upper 70s/near 80 Thu (mid 70s coastal
Volusia). Lows will generally be in the 50s, holding in the lower
60s along the coast by Thu morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

High pressure ridge across the northern (Volusia) waters will
produce favorable boating conditions again today. Light and
variable winds will turn northeast to east up to 10 knots this
afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and up to 3 FT offshore Treasure
coast. Scattered showers and a few storms will lift north into the
southern (Treasure coast) waters tonight and Sun ahead of a cold
front. This next front will sweep across the waters during Sunday
with a NW wind shift.

Winds will increase out of the north late Sunday and Sunday night
as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind the cold
front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support
wind speeds 20-30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas
will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore (up to 10 FT nearshore
Volusia) and up to 13 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease
15-20 KT by late Monday and 10-15 KT Tue as pressure gradient
eases. High pressure pushes out to sea Wed and winds veer Easterly
remaining 10-15 KT. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5
FT nearshore Tuesday with seas falling below 7 FT in the Gulf
Stream late in the day. Seas Wed 3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 615 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions forecast at all ECFL airports through around 08Z
tonight, then fog or showers (hopefully not both) expected to
impact most if not all terminals. Some mid-upper level cloud cover
starting to obscure satellite imagery, but based on satellite,
obs, and traffic cameras, little if any fog other than some MIFG
has developed so far this morning, and the window of opportunity
will close by 13Z. Light/VRB winds this morning shift ESE-SE 5-10
kts, highest along the southern coast where some gusts to 15-20
kts can`t be ruled out in the afternoon, then becoming light/VRB
again after 23Z. Pretty good agreement for at least MVFR VIS
impacts from fog at northern terminals including KMCO tonight
after 08Z, with currently low (10-20%) chances for IFR-LIFR
reductions. While chances for fog are lower at KSUA-KFPR, showers
and possibly lightning storms are forecast to lift INVOF those
terminals after 04Z. KMLB finds itself in between these two
impacts, with modest chances (around 20%) for MVFR VIS reductions
and low chances (around 10%) for showers to reach that far north.
Fog should clear by 14Z Sunday at the latest, but rain chances
will linger at KSUA-KVRB through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  56  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  77  60  78  52 /   0  10  10   0
MLB  77  61  78  57 /   0  10  20  10
VRB  77  61  79  59 /   0  20  30  10
LEE  76  57  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  77  58  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  77  59  78  50 /   0  10  10   0
FPR  78  61  79  59 /   0  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion