Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

057
FXUS62 KMLB 291046
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Hot temperatures mid-week into the first half of the weekend
  (near record), especially over the interior.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work-week, with
  just isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms
  mainly north of Orlando Thursday/Friday afternoons.

- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at area
  beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Early This Morning... Monitoring for patchy fog this morning as a
surface ridge axis begins to settle southward. Deterministic
solutions and ensemble probabilities from the 00Z cycle have mostly
hinted at the potential for patchy fog to develop west of I-95.
However, more recent trends of hourly High-Res outputs are starting
to trim back fog coverage, losing run-to-run consistency and
decreasing forecast confidence if fog will develop. Should locally
dense fog develop, visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be
possible.

Today-Friday... A surface ridge axis slides southward across the
area today becoming surpressed over the Straits of Florida Thursday
as a cold front drops into north Florida. The front struggles to
near portions of central Florida before lifting back northward
Friday as low pressure gradually organizes across portions of the
northern Gulf. Mostly dry through the period with only low rain
chances for areas north of Orlando Thursday (20-30%) and Friday
(20%). The main headline through mid to late week will be a
period of increasingly hot temperatures. Offshore flow and broad
ridging at 850mb will contribute to above normal temperatures
reaching the low 90s across much of the interior each afternoon,
spreading the upper 80s and low 90s along the coast. A Minor to
Moderate HeatRisk will gradually build each day, affecting those
who are sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling and
hydration. At area beaches, a high risk of rip currents exists
today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and
signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Saturday-Tuesday... Above normal temperatures continue Saturday as
west-southwest flow strengthens 15-20 mph ahead of the next cold
front. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through much of Saturday
before isolated to scattered rain chances (20-40%) build southward
through the Orlando Metro late in the afternoon. Rain chances become
more areawide (70-80%) into Sunday as the front drops south. Will
watch for how any storm threat may evolve with the best signal for
instability in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee after sunrise Sunday.
However, cannot rule out a mention of any storms during the
nighttime period Saturday into early Sunday as low level shear
profiles modestly increase. May also need to watch for heavy
rainfall across parts of the area into Sunday as some ensemble
solutions may suggest an area of low pressure developing along the
front in the Gulf before moving across parts of Florida. However,
spread in this solution is too large to discuss confidence or
specifics at this time. Low rain chances may persist Monday or
Tuesday as the front continues to push through south Florida.

Highs widely in the low to mid 90s Saturday become widely variable
north to south on Sunday as cloud cover and rain chances increase
and the front moves across the area. Current forecast trends keep
highs in the low to mid 70s from Cape Canaveral and Orlando
northward on Sunday spreading the low 80s to mid 80s further south
through the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee. Below normal
temperatures more widely spread east central Florida Monday, mostly
ranging the low 80s, before models suggest another warming trend
Tuesday onward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High pressure slides southward across the local waters today,
stalling near the Straits of Florida Thursday into Friday. This will
lead to favorable boating conditions through Friday with seas
subsiding 3-4 ft. Light southerly flow develops over the waters
today, veering offshore into tonight. Offshore flow should then
generally prevail into the weekend, although onshore shifts can be
expected as the sea breeze develops through Friday.

Poor boating conditions develop Saturday as southwest winds increase
15-20 kts ahead of the next cold front. Seas build 5-6 ft in the
Gulf Stream early Sunday as winds veer north-northeast behind the
front. Scattered showers in storms spread southward across the
waters Saturday afternoon and evening with high coverage forecast
throughout the day Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Patchy fog and stratus around sunrise not affecting many terminals
and this will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Otherwise VFR with
S/SW winds picking up 6-8 knots areawide as high pressure ridge
axis slips south across the area. The sea breeze will develop at
coastal terminals, first along the Treasure coast (SUA-VRB) around
16Z and later at DAB (18-19Z). Winds behind the sea breeze will
be E to SE around 10 knots this afternoon. Winds become light
westerly tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Hot temperatures and drought conditions will lead to fire
sensitivities through late week. West-southwest winds should pin the
east coast sea breeze near the coast each afternoon, and minRH
values are forecast to remain sensitive across much of the interior.
Efficient surface heating and increasing mixing heights will promote
Good to Very good afternoon smoke dispersion through late week,
becoming Excellent across portions of the northwest interior. West-
southwest winds increase to 15-20 mph on Saturday ahead of the next
cold front, resulting in control concerns. The front will bring the
next chance for wetting rain across much of east central Florida
late Saturday into Sunday, but lightning strikes will be an
additional concern for new fire starts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site   Apr 29     Apr 30     May 1      May 2
DAB    94 (1968)  92 (1953)  94 (2002)  95 (1953)
LEE    94 (2017)  95 (1991)  94 (2017)  95 (1990)
SFB    93 (2017)  93 (1971)  95 (2017)  94 (2010)
MCO    96 (1906)  95 (1971)  96 (1917)  97 (1906)
MLB    91 (1986)  93 (1964)  94 (2002)  95 (2002)
VRB    94 (1986)  91 (1975)  96 (1971)  94 (2002)
FPR    92 (1923)  97 (1971)  93 (2002)  95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  67  87  67 /  10   0  30  10
MCO  91  68  92  69 /  10   0  20   0
MLB  86  68  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  87  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  91  68  90  68 /  10   0  20  10
SFB  92  67  91  68 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  91  69  91  69 /  10   0  20   0
FPR  88  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion