Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

124
FXUS62 KMLB 140908
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
408 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening and
  bring windy conditions tonight along the coast where a Wind
  Advisory has been posted. Breezy/gusty north winds over the
  interior during the night.

- Boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate late today across
  the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning will go into effect.
  These strong north winds will then quickly overspread all the
  waters this evening.

- Breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet will develop tonight and early
  Monday, briefly up to 10 ft along the Volusia coast. Rough,
  pounding surf with numerous rip currents and minor beach erosion
  especially around high tide early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today-Mon...Isolated to scattered showers across southern
sections where deeper moisture resides as well as some upper
support. The higher coverage will occur over the adjacent Atlc
(south of the Cape) and this is where the best chance for
lightning strikes will occur. Meanwhile, strong high pressure
(1043mb) over the central US this morning will build SE and sweep
a cold front across the area this afternoon and this evening. The
resulting tightening of the NW-N pressure gradient will produce
windy conditions tonight along the coast. A Wind Advisory has
been posted for the FL east coast for 20-30 mph with gusts up to
40 mph possible. The strongest winds will occur along the
immediate coast (barrier islands). Winds will remain unusually
breezy/gusty (15-25mph) for nighttime over the interior.

These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and
minor beach erosion tonight into Mon. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are
forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. So a High
Surf Advisory has been issued. Fortunately the duration of these
winds/seas will be very short. The high tide of most concern will
be early Mon between 4am-5am.

The high pressure steadily weakens Mon as it reaches the deep
South and this will loosen the pressure gradient somewhat and
allow winds to begin to decrease Mon aftn. But it will remain
breezy/gusty esp along the coast with considerable cloudiness and
a passing coastal shower cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will be above normal today in the mid to upper
70s then noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday with max
temps holding in the 60s.

Tue-Sat...The high pressure will push seaward Tue while continuing
to weaken with a trailing axis across north Florida through mid
week. This will result in veering wind flow becoming SE Wed-Thu
with speeds 15 mph or less. The next cold front is forecast to
approach Friday and push through Fri night or Sat. Currently have
a mostly dry forecast with this frontal passage but rain chances
may need to be introduced late week.

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend into late week.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid
70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid
to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on
Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Favorable boating conditions will start out this Sunday morning
with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 FT. But conditions will
deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight
as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front.
North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern
(Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal
waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the
Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlc
waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid
Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with
occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly
to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT
nearshore.

The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Mon so
wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be
slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push
seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast
in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It
will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the
Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we
lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tue
night and below 5 FT Wed. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wed-Thu as
winds develop a SE component.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1238 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Confidence in fog impacts at northern ECFL terminals, including
KMCO, has decreased considerably since the last TAF package.
Chances have dropped from 50-70% for MVFR, 30-50% for IFR, and
20-40% to LIFR in the 00Z guidance to 20-40% for MVFR, and 10-20%
for IFR-LIFR in the latest 05Z guidance. GFS LAMP is now calling
for prevailing VFR. Since the previous TAF package was already
pretty conservative given the guidance at the time, and to avoid
over correction, no significant changes were made and continue to
call for prevailing MVFR from around 08Z-14Z at all northern
terminals, and TEMPO IFR at KSFB, KLEE, and KTIX where the 20-30%
chances continue.

To the south, starting to see a few heavy showers creep closer to
KSUA, which could cause convective impacts between 07Z-11Z.
There`s potential for this activity to reach KFPR-KVRB but not
confident enough for TEMPOs at this time. This activity expected
to shift offshore by 14Z.

Winds will turn northerly and increase to 13-18 kts with gusts
20-30 kts after Sunday evening after 23Z as a cold front pushes
through Central Florida. Winds diminish a little by late Monday
morning to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts as they shift to the
northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  50  61  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  78  52  64  49 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  78  56  67  55 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  79  58  69  55 /  30  10  10  10
LEE  77  45  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  50  64  47 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  77  50  64  48 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  80  58  69  54 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion