Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

699
FXUS62 KMLB 271804
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
104 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Rain chances and the potential for a few storms increase this
  afternoon, continuing through Saturday as a front approaches and
  slowly sinks southward across central FL; a strong storm
  producing gusty winds or hail cannot be ruled out especially
  Saturday.

- Near to above normal temperatures through next week, coastal
  showers possible each day next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Today-Saturday...We are monitoring the potential for fog
development early this morning, particularly across interior and
southern portions of east central Florida. Night fog satellite
imagery and traffic cameras are indicating the beginning of some
patchy fog in Martin and southern St. Lucie counties. Model
guidance suggests the most likely areas for fog are situated near
Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee River. Motorists should slow
down, use low-beam headlights, and create plenty of following
distance when encountering lower visibility.

Temperatures will warm quickly today, reaching the 80s (7-10
degrees above normal) early in the afternoon. Southwest winds of
10 to 15 mph should help spread PW of 1.6-1.8"+ across central
Florida during peak heating. Temperatures aloft between -10C
(south) and -12C (north) will be present, along with moderately
steep low-level lapse rates. Hi-res guidance hints at a few
unorganized showers by midday, but those are likely to struggle in
overcoming a stout 700-500mb dry layer. Scattered showers and a
few storms are more likely to develop after convective
temperatures are reached by mid to late afternoon. Additionally,
the east coast sea breeze and a mid-level shortwave will provide
additional forcing for ascent. Rain chances increase to 60-70
percent, especially from Vero Beach northward. A strong storm or
two cannot be ruled out due to the cold temps aloft and efficient
sfc-800mb parcel cooling, particularly where these conditions
overlap with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (Orlando southward). That said,
mid-level lapse rates are more limiting. Gusty winds and hail
would be the primary concerns, though any storm-scale collision
with the sea breeze will be monitored for brief rotation.

Rain chances remain medium to high (40-70 percent) overnight as a
front slowly moves south across the Florida Peninsula. Showers
may become more isolated to scattered in nature Saturday morning,
before additional development along the front occurs Saturday
afternoon. The highest rain chances will shift south in time,
focusing from Melbourne to points south. Again, a couple of
lightning storms cannot be ruled out. Cloud cover will keep
temperatures closer to normal Saturday, warming the most along
the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee.

In total, from today through Saturday evening, most likely rain
totals range from 0.5" in Martin County to 0.75-1.5" over much of
east central Florida. There is a 60-80 percent chance of 1" or
greater from the Orlando Metro to Brevard, Osceola, and northern
portions of Indian River County. Locally higher amounts of 2"+ are
possible along the coast and also where repeated rounds of
moderate to heavy rain occur.

Sunday-Thursday...Broad 500mb troughing lingers over the area
Sunday before moving seaward early in the week, allowing ridging
to build Tuesday-Thursday. Surface high pressure builds east from
the Upper Midwest to the Northeast Sunday and Monday, led by a
weakening front that stalls over north FL Tuesday and Wednesday. A
breezy northeast wind Sunday veers easterly from Monday onward.
Gusts at times could reach 20 mph in the afternoon hours (up to 25
mph at the coast). The east coast breeze will likely form each
day, moving inland fairly quick. Near normal temperatures warm to
above normal again Monday through Thursday with the warmest
locations across interior ECFL. On Sunday, model soundings look
drier overall, but a few onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled
out. Slightly better chances for coastal showers return during the
work week (still only around 15-30 percent).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Light southerly winds and generally favorable boating conditions
persist today through Saturday morning. A front is forecast to
approach and push across the local waters during the day on
Saturday. Onshore flow returns later this weekend into early next
week, introducing poor to hazardous boating conditions (seas up to
8 feet) by Tuesday.

Isolated showers this morning gradually shift offshore before
scattered rain and a few storms develop later this afternoon and
evening. High rain chances continue overnight into Saturday
morning, especially north of Sebastian Inlet. As the front moves
south across the waters Saturday afternoon and evening, higher
rain chances gradually shift south and increasingly offshore. A
strong storm capable of wind gusts greater than 30 knots,
lightning strikes, and hail cannot be ruled out each afternoon and
evening. Seas generally 1-3 feet, except where locally higher
near lightning storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Scattered SHRA moving east from the Gulf will develop into TSRA
across northern terminals, incl MCO/SFB/DAB, late this afternoon
into early eve. The east coast sea breeze has formed along the
Treasure coast and will produce a wind shift at MLB-SUA by 19-20Z.
Add`l SHRA/TSRA should affect southern terminals as a result of
sea breeze convergence and this activity should linger longer into
the night. May need to add another TEMPO group for some of the
southern terminals after 01Z. A north wind shift will reach
DAB/LEE assocd with a cold front by 12Z and slowly settle
southward during Sat. Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs will develop aft
05Z across northern terminals and persist through at least 15Z.
Another round of TSRA is forecast Sat aftn along and south of the
front with isolated strong to severe storms south of MCO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Southwest winds are forecast to reach 10-15 mph this afternoon,
turning onshore at the immediate coast as the east coast breeze
forms. Rain chances increase through the day, particularly this
afternoon and evening. Isolated lightning storms are possible,
bringing the risk for additional fire starts. A strong storm
capable of gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. High
rain chances (60-70 percent) continue overnight into Saturday as a
front slowly moves across the area. Showers and a few storms are
forecast Saturday afternoon (mainly south of Cape Canaveral).

Patchy fog is possible across much of east central Florida this
morning. Areas of locally dense fog may develop around Lake
Okeechobee and near the Kissimmee River. Smoke from new or
existing fires may also lead to localized visibility reductions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  71  55  73 /  80  50  20  10
MCO  64  76  59  77 /  80  60  20  10
MLB  61  76  59  75 /  80  60  40  20
VRB  61  79  60  76 /  70  60  50  20
LEE  61  76  55  78 /  80  60  10  10
SFB  61  75  56  76 /  80  60  20  10
ORL  63  76  58  77 /  80  60  20  10
FPR  61  79  59  77 /  70  60  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion