Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

385
FXUS62 KMLB 220600
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
100 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 745 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Windy, drier air presents an elevated to critical fire danger on
  Sunday afternoon through Monday. Any showers or isolated storms on
  Sunday`s cold front will not be nearly enough to dent the
  worsening drought.

- Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas develop behind the front
  from Sunday through Monday. Occasional gale-force gusts and
  seas building to 13 feet in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

- A blast of dangerously cold wind chills arrives on Monday night.
  Wind chills in the 20s are anticipated for much of the area. The
  risk for freezing temperatures and frost have increased early
  this week, especially over northern areas and the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure axis will remain in place across the
Florida peninsula today. At the surface, low pressure will develop
along a stationary front across the deep South, deepening tonight
along the Carolina coast, which will push the trailing cold front
into north Florida later tonight. Locally, southwest wind flow will
persist with speeds around 10 mph or less each day. The east coast
sea breeze is once again forecast to form later this afternoon and
push inland. Mostly dry conditions today, with no mentionable rain
chances through this evening. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of
the aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia
counties around sunrise. Otherwise, dry through the overnight hours.

Temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of
year, with temperatures near record highs once again. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with plenty of sunshine.
There is a good chance for more sites to tie or even break record
highs this afternoon (see below). Overnight lows both nights will be
in the upper 50s to low 60s, possibly reaching mid 60s in the
Orlando Metro area. Patchy fog will once again be possible across
all of east central Florida late tonight into Saturday morning.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level low pressure across the eastern edge of
the Midwest on Sunday will shift eastward towards the Atlantic coast
before moving northward along the NE US coast on Monday. At the
surface, a closed low along the coast of NC/VA will drag a trailing
strong cold front across east central Florida on Sunday as it moves
northward along the NE coast. Surface high pressure will then move
from TX/LA into the Gulf on Tuesday, with the axis building over the
Florida peninsula. Locally, drier air will move in behind the front,
with forecast PW values ranging from 0.8-1.5" ahead of the front to
0.1-0.2" behind the front. The front will also bring back rain
chances to east central Florida, although rainfall amounts are
forecast to be less than 0.25" across most areas. There is a medium
to high (60-70 percent) chance of showers across the whole area on
Sunday. Forecast soundings show limited instability (CAPE around 750
J/kg), so lightning storm chances remain low at this time, and
mainly confined to the I-4 corridor south of Daytona and extending
to around Cape Canaveral.

West to southwest winds around daybreak on Sunday will veer
northwest and become breezy to gusty behind the front, increasing to
around 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Northwest winds will remain
around 10-15 mph Sunday night and through Monday. Due to these
stronger winds and very low min RH values, critical fire weather
conditions are forecast through Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for all of east central Florida Sunday afternoon through
Monday evening.

Temperatures ahead of the front will be well above  normal,
especially across the south. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be mid
to upper 70 across the north and low to mid 80s across the south.
Monday will be noticeably cooler, with afternoon highs ranging from
mid 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to
mid 40s Sunday night, and low to mid 30s on Monday night. Lows have
trended slightly cooler on Monday night, with many locations across
the interior reaching at or just below freezing. Due to the
persistent NW breeze, lowest wind chills on Sunday night into Monday
will fall into the low to mid 30s, and mid to upper 20s on Monday
night into Tuesday. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed
for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure across the Gulf will
slowly shift eastward and over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday
night. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward and out
into the Atlantic Wednesday with the axis remaining over the Florida
peninsula through late week and into the weekend. Locally, north to
northwest winds on Tuesday will shift southerly on Wednesday and
remain in place through late week. Wind speeds will generally be
light, at 10 mph or less through the period. Temperatures will be on
a warming trend through the week, with temperatures reaching low to
mid 80s by late week. Overnight lows will also be on a warming
trend, with lows in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s to low 40s
around the Orlando metro and along the coast on Tuesday night,
warming to the 50s by mid/late week. Radiational cooling will be
excellent on Tuesday night due to the clear skies, and coupled with
the high pressure over head and light winds, the potential for frost
is increasing where temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today- Tonight... Generally good boating conditions as the high
pressure ridge axis will remain across Florida today. This will
result in south to southwest flow persisting across the local waters
with speeds around 10 KT KT. However, winds will veer onshore (SE)
later this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes
onshore. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Seas 2-4 FT. No mentionable rain chances this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the
northern Volusia waters near sunrise.

Sunday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous discussion) Deteriorating
boating conditions Sunday into early next week. A strong cold front
will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and
possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds
will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread
all the local Atlc waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the VOlusia waters and offshore Brevard waters starting Sunday
morning. The SCA expands to all the waters Sunday afternoon, with
the offshore Volusia/Brevard waters transition to a Gale Watch going
through at least Monday morning. The Gale Watch may need to be
upgraded to a Warning on the next package. The SCA and Gale will
likely need to be extended in time. Seas will rapidly build to 13 FT
in the Gulf Stream Sun night and early Mon. Occasional gusts to Gale
force are forecast Sun evening offshore Volusia and Brevard.
Conditions will remain hazardous for boating through Mon night.
Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind
component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5
FT nearshore. High pressure will become centered over the FL
peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge
axis across south FL. Winds quickly veer to an offshore component
and seas fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Messy and complicated aviation forecast as a strong cold front
approaches ECFL early this morning and pushes through later today.
Sent the 06Z TAF package with generally VFR conditions (some MVFR
reductions INVOF of the squall line ahead of the front) based on
current low probs for IFR-LIFR CIGs early this morning, but
satellite imagery shows stratus has started to develop along the
WCFL Gulf coast, at least partially supporting HREF guidance which
has been the most aggressive with impacts. Will monitor trends
the next hour or two but confidence is increasing IFR-LIFR CIGs
will reach the inland terminals between 07Z (KLEE) and 10Z (KMCO).
HREF suggests some improvement to IFR- MVFR after 14Z, but
indicating VFR conditions won`t return until after the squall
line pushes through. Mainly SHRA until the line reaches KMCO-KTIX,
then some embedded TSRA are possible.

Becoming windy/gusty ahead of and especially behind the front. SW
winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this morning then
further increase to 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts while
veering northwest behind the front in the late morning and
afternoon. Winds settle to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts,
occasionally higher in the late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 745 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Evening Update...
Guidance trends continue to build confidence in an episode of
elevated to critical fire weather conditions over east central
Florida beginning Sunday afternoon and evening. A rather complex
scenario unfolds as drier/less humid air rushes southward behind a
cold front. Confidence in Red Flag conditions is greatest roughly
near and north of I-4 and into Osceola Co, necessitating an
upgrade from the Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Sunday afternoon
and evening. Have left the Fire Weather Watch for the remaining
chunk of the district where question marks remain, such as how low
RHs can fall after sunset on Sunday evening. The Fire Weather
Watch is still in effect for Monday.

Regardless of the watches and warnings posted for any given area,
officials and residents should know that the combination of an
ongoing drought, dry/dead fuels from the early February freeze,
and the impending weather conditions present the potential for
quick/uncontrolled wildfire growth.

Previous Discussion...
Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through the weekend
and into early next week. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% this
afternoon across the whole area. Southwest winds will remain
around 10 mph or less today. A strong cold front will then push
through the local area on Sunday. Min RH values will drop to
35-45% across the northern interior on Sunday with min RH values
recovering slightly to 45-55% across the south. Southwest winds
will become northwest and breezy to gusty (15 mph gusting 25-30
mph) behind the front. As the drier air settles over the Florida
peninsula Monday, min RH values will drop to 20-30% areawide and
northwest winds will be near 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph once
again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 636 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Record highs were set today at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Sanford,
and Leesburg.

Daytona Beach also tied their all-time warmest February
temperature, 89 deg F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  36  55  32 /  60   0   0   0
MCO  77  39  55  34 /  60   0   0   0
MLB  80  40  57  34 /  60   0   0   0
VRB  81  41  59  33 /  60   0   0   0
LEE  74  37  55  31 /  50   0   0   0
SFB  77  37  56  33 /  60   0   0   0
ORL  76  39  56  35 /  60   0   0   0
FPR  83  39  59  31 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST
     tonight for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     FLZ447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ552-555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for AMZ570-572.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion