Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

769
FXUS62 KMLB 221839
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
239 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Into the holiday weekend, there is a 30-50% chance of mainly
  afternoon and evening lightning storms over the interior. Wind
  gusts to 40-45 mph locally, brief torrential rain, and
  occasional lightning strikes will accompany the strongest
  storms.

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents persists through
  the weekend. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly
  discouraged!

- Continued above-normal temperatures, even at night. Widespread
  Moderate HeatRisk through Memorial Day Weekend. This affects
  those sensitive to heat or without cooling or hydration.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Current-Tonight...Afternoon temps again in the U80s at the coast
with 90F to L90s inland and peak heat indices generally in the M-
U90s. Surface high pressure ridging across the western Atlc north of
central FL continues to promote an onshore flow. ESE winds 10-15 mph
with gusts to 25 mph (esp behind local sea breeze) will become light
during the evening and overnight. Isolated Atlc showers that drifted
onshore this morning across the Volusia/Brevard coasts will continue
to push inland (20-30%) thru this afternoon with a few lightning
storms across the interior, though most locations will remain dry.
Activity will shift into WCFL ahead of sunset, with additional light
shower activity across the adjacent coastal waters overnight, some
of which may affect coastal locales. Overnight lows remain above
normal in the 70s with conditions humid.

A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
continues into the holiday weekend at ALL central FL Atlc beaches.
Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly discouraged.

Memorial Day Weekend...The rinse and repeat forecast continues into
at least early next week. The surface ridge off of the mid Atlc
coast edges a bit further southward late this weekend. Ridging aloft
gradually builds back over the Florida peninsula. Expect ESE/SE
winds to continue, increasing to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph,
each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes well inland.
Max temperatures in the U80s-L90s continue, with overnight mins in
the 70s and perhaps L80s at the immediate coast. Peak heat indices
creep into the U90s-L100s as moisture increases.

Highest chances for convection continue over the western half of the
peninsula. Will still see ISOLD-SCT showers/storms develop along the
sea breeze in late mornings and early afternoons, before pushing
westward into the afternoon/evening periods. PoPs 20-30% near the
coast and 30-50% over the interior each day, as moisture builds
(PWATs 1.60-1.85") thru Sun. Timing for precip at the coast
mainly overnight, morning hours and perhaps early afternoon, with
greatest chances across the interior in the afternoons and
possibly early evenings. However, many areas will still remain
dry through at least early next week. Main threats with any storms
will be gusty winds locally, occasional lightning strikes, and
brief heavy downpours. Storms will be slow-moving and capable of
putting down 1-3" of rain in a short time locally, resulting in
minor or nuisance flooding, esp over prone areas.

Tue-Fri...The ridge continues to slowly press southward towards the
Bahamas thru mid-week, with the onshore flow continuing at least
thru Tue/Wed. Some drier air passes across the area on Tue, then
deeper moisture pools back into the area Wed-Fri as the weather
pattern becomes a bit more "unsettled". This as the mid-level flow
becomes more SWRLY and a more "troughy" pattern aloft takes shape
across the FL peninsula with mid-level shortwave energy traversing
the region. Will still see a daily sea breeze with diurnal boundary
interactions and an increase in shower/storm activity across ECFL,
esp as the storm steering becomes more southerly thru mid week, then
westerly by Fri bringing more storms back toward the coast. PoPs
closer to 30-40% areawide on Tue, then 50-70% Wed-Fri. Highs
forecast in the U80s to L90s, but could be closer to 85-90F
areawide depending on clouds/precip. Lows consistently above
normal in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure ridging remains north of the local waters thru early
next week. Prevailing onshore winds during the period with speeds at
least 10-15 kts, but periods of 15-18 kts - perhaps up to 20 kts
as the pgrad tightens later this weekend and early next week,
leading to short periods of poor boating conditions. The ECSB
develops and pushes well inland each day with generally no push-
back of storms to the coast. Isolated to scattered showers (ISOLD
lightning storms) are forecast. Seas 3-4 ft through early next
week, except up to 5 ft well offshore and locally higher invof
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection. East coast sea breeze near
the coastal corridor has been fairly active this morning with
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA, especially from KMLB-KDAB necessitating TEMPOs.
This activity will push inland through the afternoon and evening,
although latest hi-res guidance casts some doubt whether coverage
will remain SCT or become more ISO. Based on current radar trends
continuing TEMPOS at KTIX-KDAB and added KSFB, but held off KMCO/
KISM where deep convection have struggled for now. Sea breeze
collision will be east of the ECFL terminals in the late evening.
SHRA/TSRA diminishes at KMCO and area terminals after 22Z (00Z at
KLEE). Chances for onshore moving -SHRA return overnight. Higher
coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected Saturday, though highest chances
at this time mainly west of the ECFL terminals.

Winds SE-ESE at 7-13 kts gusting to around 20 kts, possibly
pushing towards 15 kts gusting to 25 kts along the coast from
KMLB-KSUA, gradually diminish overnight, then pick back up again
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  75  88 /   0  30  30  50
MCO  74  91  74  90 /  10  40  30  50
MLB  78  88  79  88 /   0  20  20  30
VRB  78  89  79  88 /   0  20  20  30
LEE  76  92  75  90 /  10  50  50  50
SFB  75  93  75  91 /   0  50  30  50
ORL  75  92  75  90 /  10  40  30  50
FPR  77  88  78  88 /   0  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion