National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
271 FXUS62 KMLB 181120 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 720 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - A high risk of rip currents exists at St. Lucie and Martin county beaches today, with a moderate risk at Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River county beaches. - Coverage of rain and lightning storms will gradually increase from south to north through late week; locally heavy rainfall possible across the Treasure Coast today. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall exists over portions of the Treasure Coast, Okeechobee, and Brevard Counties today. - Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal this week and into early next week, especially across the south, where higher coverage of clouds and rain are forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Today-Tonight... The mid to upper level trough across the eastern US will slowly shift eastward and out into the Atlantic into tonight. The surface low pressure over NC/VA will gradually move northeast off of the New England coast and open into a trough. Locally, deep moisture will continue to build northward across the Florida peninsula through the day, with forecast PW values increasing to 1.8- 2.0" from around Melbourne southward, with comparably drier air ( PW values of 1.5"-1.7") farther inland and northwest. This will result in greater rain chances across the area today. There is a medium (50- 70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms from Brevard to Orange Counties southward this afternoon and early evening, with 30- 40 percent north and west of there. The main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy downpours. There is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the Treasure Coast, Okeechobee, and Brevard Counties today. Weak steering flow aloft combined with the higher moisture may support training activity and/or multiple rounds of slow-moving showers, which in turn, may lead to minor flooding. Much like this last night, scattered onshore moving showers will continue to be possible overnight. The greatest potential for these onshore moving showers will be along the coast from around Melbourne southward. Lightning storm activity overnight looks to remain limited, however, an isolated storm or two can not be ruled out. Outside of convection, northeast winds of 5-10 mph will prevail today before turning easterly and increasing to 10-15 mph (with gusts to around 20 mph along the coast) in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Onshore flow and high cloud cover will help keep temperatures norm to slightly below normal today. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with some locations around the Greater Orlando area forecast to reach 90 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s. Friday-Sunday... The mid to upper level trough will continue to shift eastward across the Atlantic through the period, with quasi- zonal flow developing aloft through early weekend. Flow is forecast to then become more meridional into late weekend as another trough aloft begins to build towards the area. At the same time, a mid to upper level trough will shift eastward across Canada and towards the Great Lakes. At the surface, a boundary will reestablish itself across South Florida to just offshore of South Florida this weekend and will begin to slowly shift northward late weekend. Locally, deeper moisture will continue to build northward across the local area through early weekend. This will result in greater rain chances across east central Florida through the time period, with a low to medium (30 to 70 percent) chance for rain and lightning storms each day, with Sunday having the lowest rain chances (PoPs 30-50 percent). The greatest rain chances are focused across southern portions of the forecast area each day, where PWATs are anticipated to be highest (1.8 to 2.0"). The main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy downpours. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern as weak steering flow aloft combined with the higher moisture may support training activity and/or multiple rounds of slow-moving showers which could lead to minor flooding. Any lingering activity is forecast to diminish late each evening across the peninsula, with scattered showers and storms remaining possible across the Atlantic waters overnight. Northeast winds will continue to prevail with speeds generally 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, veering the winds more easterly and increasing the winds to 10-15 mph. Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up to 20 mph, will continue to be possible in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. The onshore flow coupled with some high cloud cover will help keep temperatures near normal to slightly below normal. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s on Friday, and then upper 80s to low 90s Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Monday-Thursday... The aforementioned mid-upper level trough near the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward as a mid to upper level cutoff low develops across the Central US into mid week. This cutoff low will slowly drift eastward towards the Great Lakes into mid to late week. This will result in mid level ridging developing over the Florida peninsula mid week. At the surface, the boundary across South Florida will continue to shift northward to near to just south of the local area by early week and will remain through mid to late week while slowly drifting eastward and diminishing. Locally, northeast to east winds at 10-15 mph will persist through the period with the east coast sea breeze forecast to form each afternoon. Global models continue to slightly disagree on moisture for next week. So have decided to continue to go with NBM for rain chances (30-50 percent). Scattered daily storms are also forecast, with with lightning strikes and gusty winds the main concerns aside from heavy rainfall and flooding. Any lingering activity is forecast to diminish late each evening across the peninsula, with scattered showers and storms remaining possible across the Atlantic waters overnight. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year as onshore flow persist. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows wil continue to be low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Today-Monday... Favorable boating conditions forecast into the next week. Northeast winds will become more easterly into late week with speeds around 12 KT today. Wind speeds will increase to 10-15 KT late week and into the weekend, and remain into early next week, as a surface boundary reestablishes itself near to just south of the local waters. Seas 3-5 ft prevailing through the time period. Isolated showers and storms will largely be confined to the Gulf Stream and southern Treasure Coast waters through today, until deeper moisture brings higher rain and lightning storm chances late week and into the weekend before rain and storm chances decrease slightly into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 VFR with occasional MVFR due to SHRA/TSRA thru the TAF period. Onshore flow 10-15 kt (gusts to 20 kt at coastal sites) will continue today. Higher moisture will be focused MLB southward and where higher SHRA/TSRA chances are forecast. Introduced TEMPOs at FPR/SUA after 14z-15z for at least SHRA activity. VC wording was carried elsewhere (except DAB). Rain may linger along the coast from TIX southward after 00z, but confidence is low at this time. Overall, drier conditions into Fri. for most with onshore flow persisting. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 86 74 / 40 20 30 20 MCO 89 73 89 74 / 50 20 40 10 MLB 86 75 86 76 / 60 40 50 30 VRB 86 74 87 75 / 70 50 60 40 LEE 90 71 89 72 / 30 10 20 10 SFB 88 73 88 73 / 40 20 30 20 ORL 89 73 88 74 / 50 20 30 10 FPR 86 73 87 74 / 70 50 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Schaper
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Today![]() Heavy Rain |
Tonight![]() T-storms Likely |
Friday![]() Showers Likely then T-storms Likely |
Friday Night ![]() Chance T-storms |
Saturday![]() Chance T-storms |
Hi 84 °F | Lo 78 °F | Hi 86 °F | Lo 80 °F | Hi 87 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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