Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

371
FXUS62 KMLB 231927
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
327 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers through this evening; isolated to
  scattered sea breeze storms this weekend.

- Favorable boating conditions forecast this weekend.

- Warming trend into the weekend, then turning hot next week
  especially over the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Thru tonight...The persistent mid level ridging is breaking down
as moisture gradually increases in the low levels and upper
levels, eroding the mid level dry air. Isolated showers will
bubble up over the interior into early evening as well as pushing
onshore portions of the coast. Then mostly dry overnight with
winds becoming light and variable and temperatures falling back
into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Fri-Thu...Weak mid level trough over the FL peninsula Fri will
slide eastward of the area Fri night. NW flow on the backside of
this trough will allow embedded shortwaves to pass across the area
through the weekend and early next week. Then mid level ridge of
high pressure slowly builds over the SW Gulf and tries to expand
north/east. Modest moisture exists across the region thru early
Sat, then an increase in PWATs from late Sat into mid next week.
In the low levels, pressure gradient will remain weak in vicinity
of the Atlc ridge axis allowing the sea breeze to develop each
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms this weekend will
be mainly assocd with sea breeze collisions, especially Sunday
when rain chances (25-35%) are highest. Any lightning strikes that
occur will have potential to spark brush fires given the dry
antecedent conditions. Reinforcing high pressure is forecast to
build over the area Monday then move out over the SW Atlc with a
trailing ridge axis slipping down the FL peninsula mid week.

A warming trend this weekend with max temps in the upper 80s
interior and mid 80s coast. Max temps Mon hold steady then
additional warming follows with lower 90s Tue and low to mid 90s
Wed/Thu over the interior. Daily sea breezes will keep the coast a
little cooler, but increasingly delayed sea breezes will allow
the coast to warm into the upper 80s by Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Conditions gradually improve through Fri as the pressure gradient
continues to relax as a weak low-level ridge axis settles across
central FL. A more offshore W/SW flow will develop by Sun as the
ridge axis pushes south of the local waters. An E/SE sea breeze
10-15 knots will develop each afternoon near the coast. Seas
subside 2-3 FT Fri, 2 FT Sat and 1-2 FT Sun. Scattered showers
into this evening near the coast. Isold-scattered aftn/evening
lightning storms over land this weekend may affect some inland
lakes as well as push offshore onto the Atlc, esp Sunday
aftn/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR to continue. -SHRA are brushing the coast from VRB to MLB this
afternoon, where VCSH is in place. ESE winds around 10 kt (10-15
kt MLB-SUA) are gusting at times around 20 kt. -SHRA cannot be
ruled out after 23z near ISM/MCO, but probabilities remain too low
to include in the TAF. Otherwise, FEW/SCT at FL035-050 with some
additional SCT/BKN near FL070-100. Winds weaken after 02z, then
pick up again after 15z Fri.

For MCO, will have to monitor the potential for VCSH again after
22-23z Fri. along the sea breeze collision.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

High pressure ridge axis will settle southward across central FL
Friday then reach south Florida by Sunday. Light south to southwest
wind will turn onshore (E/SE) behind the sea breeze each afternoon
with speeds near 15 mph. Min RH values of 35-40% are forecast over
portions of the interior Friday and Saturday, rising to 40-45%
Sunday while RH values hold around 50% near the coast. Dispersions
will be Fair to Generally Good Friday and Good to Very Good
Saturday and Sunday.

Isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast Friday into the
weekend, highest values inland from the coast and greatest overall
chance on Sunday, associated with late day/evening boundary
collisions. New fire starts will be a concern from any lightning
strikes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  82  63  85 /   0  10   0  20
MCO  62  85  64  88 /   0  10   0  30
MLB  65  81  66  84 /   0  10   0  20
VRB  64  81  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  62  86  63  88 /   0  10   0  20
SFB  61  86  63  89 /   0  10   0  20
ORL  63  86  65  88 /   0  10   0  30
FPR  63  81  63  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion