Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

433
FXUS62 KMLB 161138
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
638 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the waters
  today, becoming more favorable into midweek. A High Risk for
  rip currents persists at area beaches today.

- Mostly dry conditions should prevail today through tomorrow, but
  isolated onshore moving showers and sprinkles along the coast
  will be possible.

- A gradual warm-up forecast through the rest of the week, with
  temperatures becoming above normal into late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Today-Wednesday...High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will shift
eastward and offshore today, with ridge axis remaining north of the
area and continuing an onshore flow across the region. A weak
inverted trough will also exist near the coast today, but will
gradually diminish. Sufficient low level moisture combined with the
E/NE flow may still lead to isolated showers or sprinkles across the
waters that are able to push onshore along the coast today through
tomorrow. However, rain chances remain low, around 10-20%, with
mostly dry conditions forecast otherwise. Should see a little more
sunshine today under partly cloudy skies, but cloud cover looks to
increase again into Wednesday from building mid to high level
clouds. Despite the increase in cloud cover into midweek, a gradual
warm-up should continue, with highs today in the low to mid 70s and
in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range from
the low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s/low 60s along the coast, and
then will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the entire area
Wednesday night.

Thursday-Friday...A cold front will move from the central to eastern
U.S. Thursday, with the boundary weakening as it approaches and
moves through central Florida late Friday. Moisture increases
slightly as winds veer S/SE into Thursday, with PW values rising
to 1.3-1.4 inches. This may allow for isolated to scattered
showers to develop, mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. However, PoPs only increase to around 20-30 percent
during this timeframe. Instability looks to remain quite low over
land, with MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg, so lightning storms
look unlikely. However, there may be a little more instability
over the waters for a few storms, mainly over the gulf stream
waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Frontal passage then
looks to remain mostly dry late Friday.

Highs will be above normal into late week, reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s. Lows Thursday night will be mild in the low 60s and drop to
the 50s to low 60s most locations (except upper 40s NW of I-4)
behind the front into Friday night.

Saturday-Monday...Front will shift south of the area and fade into
the weekend, with high pressure building in behind this boundary and
pushing off the southeast U.S. coast. This will quickly veer winds
onshore, with highs remaining mostly above normal (in the upper 70s
to low 80s most locations) through early next week. May see isolated
showers over the waters that can push onshore through the weekend,
but otherwise it looks to remain mostly dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure pushes off the Southeast U.S. coast
today, with a weak inverted trough near the east coast of Florida
fading through today. Winds are forecast to be out of the E/NE
around 10-15 knots across much of the waters today, increasing up to
15-20 knots offshore of the Brevard County and Treasure Coast waters
into tonight. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous due
to lingering seas up to 6-8 feet. A Small Craft Advisory continues
across the Gulf Stream waters through early afternoon, and then
gradually is scaled back to just the Treasure Coast waters for late
afternoon/early evening. Small craft will need to exercise caution
across the nearshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties through
at least this morning, for seas up to 6 feet.

Isolated showers and sprinkles will continue to be possible across
the waters in the continued onshore flow today into tonight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic
remains north of the waters midweek, continuing an onshore flow and
leading to more favorable boating conditions as seas fall to 3-5
feet and wind speeds remain 10-15 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE
Thursday and SW Thursday night as a weakening cold front moves
through the Southeast U.S. and toward FL. The front then moves
across the waters late Friday becoming N/NW and then quickly
veering onshore into Saturday as high pressure builds in behind
the front. Wind speeds look to be no greater than 10-15 knots
through late week and into the weekend, with seas potentially
building up to 6 feet well offshore Friday afternoon into Friday
night behind the front.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible across
the waters mid to late week, with greatest rain chances (up to 30-
50%) Thursday/Thursday night ahead of the approaching front.
Lightning storm potential looks low for the time being, but some of
the guidance is indicating a few storms may be possible, mainly
across the Gulf Stream waters late Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently VFR at coastal terminals. Inland, stratus that developed
early this morning has socked in KLEE and is encroaching on KMCO
and the other I-4 terminals. Based on current trends expecting
IFR-LIFR CIGs to overrun the Orlando area terminals by around 12Z.
Models are playing catchup, decreasing confidence some, but call
for gradual clearing after 13Z and VFR conditions around 14Z,
which is supported by the current environment. Mainly VFR
conditions the rest of the day. ISO onshore moving showers could
periodically impact coastal terminals, briefly dropping VIS to
less than 3SM. Marine strato- cu expected to remain at or above
BKN035, but could drop to MVFR in bands of showers. NNW-NE winds
5-10 kts this morning veer through the day, becoming NE-ENE at
around 10 kts by the afternoon, then becoming light NNE-NE
tonight, except along the southern coast remaining Erly 5-10 kts.
Environment becomes more favorable for fog across the north
tonight, but chances are currently very low (10% or less).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  56  74  61 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  71  57  75  62 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  72  61  75  63 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  73  60  76  63 /  10  10  20  20
LEE  71  53  75  59 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  71  55  75  60 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  71  56  74  61 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  60  76  62 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion