Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

306
FXUS62 KMLB 312330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
630 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Preparations for multiple nights of hard freezes should already
  be completed as strong and gusty winds have arrived.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Sunday morning for
  winds frequently gusting 35 to 45 mph and occasionally over 50
  mph. Winds gradually diminish Sunday, but breezy/gusty
  conditions will continue much of the day.

- A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning are in effect
  for all of east central Florida tonight into Sunday morning and
  Sunday night into Monday morning. Dangerous wind chill values of
  9 to 15 degrees and a hard freeze with low temperatures in the
  20s are forecast Sunday morning, and wind chill values of 17 to
  20 degrees and a hard freeze with low temperatures in the 20s
  are forecast Monday morning. Additional watches/warnings for the
  following nights may be needed.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for rapidly deteriorating and
  dangerous boating conditions through Sunday afternoon as winds
  increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely.
  Mariners should remain in port. Poor to hazardous boating
  conditions will linger into early next week. Have issued a Small
  Craft Advisory for all the central Florida Atlantic waters
  starting Sunday afternoon. This will likely need to be extended
  in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today-Monday... An upper level low pressure will continue to swing
across the Deep South today and offshore the eastern US on Sunday as
it lifts northward. At the surface, a strong cold front (currently
stretched approximately from Cape Canaveral to Lake Kissimmee) will
continue to shift southward across east central Florida this
afternoon as the low pressure system off the GA/Carolina coast
slowly shifts northward through tonight. High pressure centered off
the TX/LA coasts will then shift eastward through early week, with
the axis of high pressure building over the Florida peninsula Sunday
and Monday. This cold front will result in significant winds and
historic cold temperatures across the local areas this weekend.
Forecast PW values are around 0.8-1.1" ahead of the front today
before dropping to 0.3-0.5" behind the front, and 0.1-0.2" on Sunday
and Monday. The band of showers ahead of the front are currently
across the southern Treasure Coast and into South Florida as of 1 PM
this afternoon. Have maintained a low (20-30 percent) chance of
showers across the south through this afternoon. Lightning storms
are not forecast at this time. Otherwise, dry conditions with no
mentionable rain chances tonight through Monday over land areas.

The pressure gradient across the local area has tightened this
afternoon as the low rapidly deepens offshore. This has resulted in
the west-northwesterly winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts to
25 mph this afternoon, and is forecast to continue to increase to 20-
30 mph with frequent gusts to 35-45 mph, with occasional gusts to 50
mph, later this afternoon and continue into this evening. A Wind
Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through this evening.
Winds are then forecast to decrease to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30
mph inland during the overnight hours. Will continue to monitor
forecast trends as there is a potential for higher gusts to linger
longer in the overnight hours. North-northwest winds at 15-20 mph
(gusts up to 25 mph possible) Sunday morning will decrease to 10-15
mph in the afternoon, and 5-10 mph Sunday night through Monday.

Historic cold temperatures are forecast this weekend and into Monday
as strong cold air advection on the western side of the low brings
down arctic air across Florida. Temperatures today will only reach
the mid 50s to mid 60s around 2 PM before plummeting to Low 40s to
mid 50s by sunset, with sub-freezing temperatures arriving in the
northern counties prior to midnight. A hard freeze is forecast for
all of East Central Florida for most of tonight and into Sunday
morning, as well as Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures
continue to crash into the low to mid 20s across the interior,
including all of the Orlando Metro Area, and mid to upper 20 along
the coastal corridor. These forecast lows are about 5-10 degrees
below daily records for most locations (Orlando is forecast to be 3
degrees below their record low temperature), and threatening the
coldest temperatures for the month of February for all but Orlando.
These cold temperatures combined with the strong and gusty northwest
winds, will produce wind chills that are bitterly cold during the
day, and dangerous in the evening and overnight, as values drop into
the 20s shortly after sunset, before decreasing to the single digits
and teens late Saturday night into Sunday morning, and into the
teens and 20s Sunday night into Monday morning. Freezing
temperatures will once again be possible Monday night into Tuesday
morning for at least portions of east central Florida with wind
chills dropping into the 20s remaining possible. Sunday temperatures
will remain about 2-10 degrees below daily record "cool highs" with
afternoon highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will
continue the warming trend into early next week, with afternoon
highs reaching mid to upper 50s on Monday.

An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning are in effect for all
east central Florida for tonight into Sunday mid-morning. The last
time this product (called a Wind Chill Warning at that time) was
issued by NWS Melbourne was January 2014 (just for Lake and Volusia
Counties), and the last time it was issued for ALL of east central
Florida was December 2010. An additional Extreme Cold Warning and a
Freeze Warning have been issued for all of east central Florida for
Sunday night through Monday mid-morning. People and pets with
inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and
hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants
and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected.
The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to
the wind-driven cold that is expected. Additional Extreme Cold and
Freeze Watch/Warnings may be needed for Monday night into Sunday
morning for at least portions of the CWA.

Tuesday-Friday... High pressure will be over the Florida peninsula
on Tuesday before shifting offshore into the Atlantic midweek ahead
of the next cold front on Thursday. Locally, northeast winds on
Tuesday will turn west to southwest on Wednesday and northwest on
Thursday and Friday behind the next cold front. There remains
uncertainty with this next frontal passage, as global models
continue to have considerable differences with the evolution.
However, this frontal passage is not forecast to have the same
potency as the one that is going through this afternoon. Dry
conditions are forecast through early week, before rain chances
return midweek with isolated showers starting Wednesday night
through Thursday, becoming dry once again on Friday.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the forecast
period, despite the warming trend through mid week.  Wednesday is
forecast to be the closest day to near normal temperatures before
decreasing once again on Thursday with the frontal passage (but will
remain above record cold)and Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the
low 70s on Wednesday before cooling to low to mid 60s on Thursday
and Friday. Lows should remain above freezing through the period,
with temperatures slowly increasing into midweek before dropping
slightly on Thursday with the front. Frost will become a concern
Tuesday night into Wednesday however.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today-Sunday... Dangerous to hazardous boating conditions through
much of the weekend. Mariners should remain in port! A low pressure
system offshore GA/Carolina Coast today will continue to deepen as
it shifts northward through Sunday. The associated cold front,
currently located across the Brevard waters, will continue to shift
southward into South Florida through this evening. Northwesterly
winds have increased to 20-30 KT this afternoon, and are forecast to
surge to 30-40 KT tonight. Gusts will frequently reach high-end Gale
strength, and occasional gusts to Storm-force cannot be ruled out
tonight. Seas 3-5 ft in the nearshore and 5-8 ft in the offshore
waters this afternoon will build to 8-12 ft in the nearshore waters
and 12-17 ft in the offshore waters tonight. As the low lifts
northeast Sunday, winds will slacken to 25-35 KT with higher gusts
through much of the day. This will result in seas beginning to
subside, with seas up to 10 ft in the nearshore waters and up to 13
ft in the offshore waters by Sunday evening. Isolated to scattered
showers will remain possible this afternoon. There is potential for
flurries well offshore tonight. No lightning storms are forecast at
this time.

A Gale Warning is in effect for all central Florida Atlantic waters
starting through 1 PM Sunday. Have issued a Small Craft Advisories
for all of the east central Florida Atlantic waters starting at 1PM
Sunday and continuing through Monday mid-morning. Additional Small
Craft Advisory and small craft exercise caution headlines will
likely be needed.

Monday-Wednesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
through early next week as high pressure builds over Florida behind
the departing low. Lingering seas of 5-10 ft on Monday will subside
to 3-6 ft by Tuesday afternoon, and 2-4 ft by Wednesday afternoon.
Northwest winds through Tuesday will shift south to southwest on
Wednesday ahead of the next frontal boundary. Wind speeds of 20-25
KT on Monday will diminish to 10-15 KT by Tuesday morning. Winds
briefly decrease to around 10 KT Tuesday afternoon before increasing
to 10-15 KT Wednesday. Additional Small Craft Advisory and small
craft exercise caution headlines will likely be needed through early
week. Dry conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong west-northwest winds persist at all east central Florida
terminals through the overnight hours, with sustained winds of 20
to 25 knots and gusts up to 40 knots possible. Skies and ceilings
gradually clear overnight as dry air moves southward across the
peninsula. Winds begin to lighten to around 10 to 15 knots after
20Z on Sunday, though gusts to 20 knots will still be possible. By
tomorrow night, anticipate winds falling below 10 knots.

Airport Weather Warnings remain in effect at MCO, ORL, and DAB
through 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph this
afternoon and evening will lead to containment issues of any
fires. Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible
Sunday as humidity drops to 20-30% while northwesterly winds
remain around 15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph
or less Monday, but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due
to humidity values less than 30%.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  24 02/18/1958   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/26/1967   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        25 02/18/1958   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      27 02/26/1967   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     28 02/24/1989   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  23  45  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  26  46  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  25  48  26  56 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  26  49  27  57 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  24  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  24  45  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  26  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  25  50  26  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning until 11 AM EST Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
     547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion