Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

882
FXUS62 KMLB 122322
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
622 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Strong, gusty north winds producing windy conditions and
  hazardous boating conditions along the Volusia and north Brevard
  coasts will decrease this evening

- Rain chances increase areawide Wednesday into Thursday ahead of
  the next cold front but amounts look limited

- Sharply colder air Thursday night with a wind chill; Freezing
  temperatures possible north of Orlando Friday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Thru tonight...Inverted coastal trough developed just offshore the
Volusia coast with strong and gusty north winds along the coast
and a large area of low-based stratocu clouds that spread SW into
Lake/Seminole counties. After sunset, the NE winds along the Space
and Treasure coasts will back and all areas will become uniformly
north with speeds decreasing even along the Volusia coast.
Isolated showers over the Atlc may reach the Treasure coast but
most areas will remain dry. Quite a range of overnight lows, from
the lower 50s across Lake/interior Volusia to the mid 60s along
the immediate Treasure coast.

Tue-Wed (modified)...The old front now stationary to our south
will begin to lift back to the north along with an increase in
moisture overspreading southern sections with PWATs rising up to
1.50". This should produce isolated showers over the southern and
coastal sections. Elsewhere over the north interior, conditions
will remain mostly dry on Tuesday. Max temperatures recover a bit
more, reaching the low to mid 70s. Attention turns to a mid level
shortwave rounding the base of a deepening trough by midweek, as
the features both progress toward the southeast U.S. That sfc
front lifts a little further north on Wednesday, preceding a
series of cold fronts advancing toward FL. This old boundary,
along with additional forcing arriving from the north, will
combine with 1.4-1.5" PW to raise rain chances to 25-40% Wednesday
afternoon. The highest coverage of rain and timing remains a bit
uncertain, but following the consensus of guidance, rain chances
climb to 40-55% Wed night into Thu morning. Mostly cloudy
conditions Wed are likely to keep temperatures a bit cooler (mid
to upper 60s north, mid 70s south).

Thu-Mon (modified)...A strong cold front is forecast to sweep
across the area Thu, accompanied by breezy to gusty northwest
winds (20-30 mph gusts) which will advect much drier air with
clearing skies Thu afternoon and night. The combination of NW
wind, clear sky conditions, and cold continental airmass will send
temperatures plummeting into the 30s for most by Friday morning.
Wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s are forecast Friday
morning as well, solidly reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria
for most of ECFL with the possible exception of coastal Martin
county. Sub-freezing temperatures (29F-32F) are possible Fri
morning across north Lake and Volusia counties. Despite full
sunshine Friday, max temps will range from the mid 50s Orlando
north to the low 60s Martin county, 10-15 degrees below normal.
Saturday promises another cold start with temperatures in the 30s
and 40s, but a lighter wind makes for less of a wind chill
factor but increases the risk of frost esp interior sections.
Afternoon highs Sat rebound into the mid and upper 60s with lower
70s south.

High pressure that built over Florida and the southeastern U.S.
Friday/early Saturday will break down again Saturday afternoon as
another cold front brings reinforcing cold air Sunday into Monday.
There are discrepancies in models at this range regarding timing
and any chance of precip, but for now, this forecast calls for a
dry frontal passage. Temperatures trend colder Sunday into early
next week behind this front, perhaps flirting with wind chills
near the 30-degree mark again Monday morning. On the whole, expect
a cooler-than-normal pattern to persist through the extended
range with limited opportunities for measurable rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Inverted coastal trough developed earlier today extending from
near the Cape northward offshore NE FL. Tight north pressure
gradient on the west side of this trough is producing sustained 20
knots with higher gusts over the nearshore Volusia waters so
reissued the Small Craft Advisory there thru this eve. The NE
pressure gradient on the east side of the trough axis supports NE
winds 10-15 knots across the remainder of the Atlc coastal waters.
With 7 FT seas subsiding, canceled the SCA for the Gulf Stream
early and replaced with a Caution headline.

Favorable boating conditions return Tuesday as NE winds decrease
to 8-12 kt and seas reach 3-5 ft. Seas fall further to 2-4 ft
Wednesday before offshore winds pick back up Wednesday afternoon
and night (15- 20 kt). A strong cold front swings through
Thursday, freshening northwest winds and building seas. Thus, poor
to hazardous conditions quickly return Thursday morning to the
offshore zones, expanding to the remainder of the local Atlantic
waters Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Seas reach a peak of
at least 7-9 ft Thursday night/early Friday, though this could be
a conservative forecast (some guidance brings wave heights up to
10+ ft offshore). Rain chances increase ahead of and along the
approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday, and a lightning
storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream.

High pressure builds over the waters Friday and winds respond by
decreasing and turning onshore. Seas, though, will take a bit
longer to subside Friday afternoon esp over the Gulf Stream.
Boating conditions look quite favorable Sat within a weak pressure
gradient/light wind regime and seas 2 FT nearshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 618 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Continued mainly VFR for most, though watching lower cloud
ceilings north of MCO presently. Beginning TAF issuance for LEE,
DAB, SFB with MVFR CIGs for a first few hours and will monitor
from there. N/NNE grids continuing into Tue, becoming more NE/ENE
along the south Brevard/Treasure coasts. Gust winds along the
Volusia/Brevard coasts diminishing this evening. Weaker pressure
gradient in place for Tue with speeds increasing to 5-8 kts. VCSH
(light) showers tonight VRB southward extending north to MLB on
Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  70  54  68 /  10  10  40  50
MCO  56  71  59  68 /  10  10  40  40
MLB  59  73  58  72 /  10  20  50  50
VRB  61  75  59  74 /  20  20  50  40
LEE  51  69  54  67 /   0  10  40  40
SFB  54  71  56  69 /  10  10  40  40
ORL  55  71  58  68 /  10  10  40  40
FPR  61  75  59  75 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion