








National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
500 FXUS62 KMLB 111136 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 736 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon with activity pushing back towards the coast into the evening. This diurnal coverage will continue through early to mid-week. - Some storms and may be strong to severe later this afternoon and evening. Primary storm hazards are frequent lightning, strong to damaging winds, hail, and torrential downpours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. - Highs remain above normal today, with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100`s. Temperatures become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday before slowly increasing once again into mid/late week. Low temperatures remain above normal and conditions humid. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Today-Tonight... A weak front will approach the area today, pushing into east central Florida tonight, reaching central portions of the CWA by sunrise on Tuesday. Locally, westerly winds around 5-10 mph will veer northwest by late afternoon/early evening. Winds along the coast will veer onshore (E-SE) in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze (which will be pinned closer to the coast than previous days), with speeds becoming enhanced to 10-15 mph. Moisture remain high across the local area, with PW values of 1.7-1.9", which will continue to support a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain. Highest rain and storm chances will generally be from Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee eastward. Scattered showers and lightning storms will form along the east coast sea breeze by mid afternoon, with additional convection forming along the west coast sea breeze as it pushes towards ECFL. The sea breeze collision is forecast to happen east of Orlando, closer to the coast than previous days. Showers and storms will then push back towards the coast into late afternoon/early evening in the dominate westerly flow. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe once again. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put all of east central Florida into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) today. Forecast soundings support this by showing ample instability (MUCAPE 1800-2400 J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km of 20-30 KT), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE of 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, with up to 15 percent chance of wind gusts of 60+mph, hail up to 1.0", and locally heavy down pours of 1-3" possible. A brief tornado will be possible in boundary collisions between the sea breeze and storms (less than 2 percent chance). Hot and humid once again. The NBM has been coming in slightly under what has actually occurred the past couple of days, and given that the sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland mid afternoon once again, have opted to increase temps by a degree or two across much of the area to come into better alignment with past observations. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s across the south, with peak heat indices of 98-105. Not much relief overnight, with lows remaining in the 70s. These hot and humid conditions will produce a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk for much of east Central Florida, with a Major HeatRisk for portions of the Treasure Coast. Tuesday... The aforementioned weak frontal boundary across central Florida in the morning will slowly shift southward through the day, settling across south Florida late in the day. Locally, northeast winds will dominate, with speeds becoming enhanced to 10-15 mph in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Deep moisture remains in place, with PW values around 1.6-1.9" in the afternoon. This will support high rain (70 percent) chances areawide in the afternoon. Some storms may be strong. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, hail, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" possible. Which is supported by forecast soundings showing cooler temperatures aloft (-9 to -10C at 500 mb), adequate instability (500-700 J/kg) and downdraft potential (DCAPE around 300-800 J/kg). Temperatures will become more seasonable on Tuesday behind the front. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... A series of upper level troughs across the Great Lakes region will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic through late week. Surface high pressure will build over the local area from the Deep South behind the front. Locally, winds will veer onshore behind the front continuing into late week. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph. Lingering moisture and instability will be slow to dissipate, resulting in increasing rain chances through mid-week, with shortwave energy aloft aiding convection. There is a medium to high (60-70 percent) chance of rain areawide on Tuesday, and low to medium (20-30 percent) chance on Thursday, mainly east of Orlando down to Lake Okeechobee eastward. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Friday, with isolated to scattered showers (20-30 percent) Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures remain closer to seasonal values on Wednesday (in the mid to upper 80s), but then steadily increase into the low 90s by late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Today-Friday... Increased moisture will remain in place, resulting in an increased shower and lightning storm threat today, aided by boundary collisions across the eastern peninsula this afternoon/evening, with activity being pushed back towards the coast. A few storms may be strong to marginally severe. Primary storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes and strong to damaging wind gusts. A weak front will then approach the local waters today, pushing into central Florida waters tonight. The front will continue to slowly push southward through the local waters Tuesday, settling across south Florida late Tuesday. SW winds ahead of the boundary today at 10-15 KT will become N/NW tonight before shifting NE/E Tuesday behind the front, with speeds increasing to 15-20 KT briefly. Seas 2- 4ft will increase to 3-5ft on Tuesday, briefly reaching 7ft in the offshore waters Tuesday night before subsiding to 4-6ft on Wednesday, and 3-4ft on Thursday and up to 7ft in the offshore waters by Tuesday night before subsiding to 4-6ft on Wednesday night, and 3-5ft on Thursday and Friday. Scattered to numerous onshore-moving showers and lightning storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday, decreasing to isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday, with mostly dry conditions forecast on Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 736 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Mostly VFR this morning, with intermittent MVFR CIGs at MLB, FPR, and SUA. Brief -RA cannot be ruled out at LEE thru 14z, but conditions should remain VFR. SW winds 7-12 kt and dry conds until SHRA/TSRA form along the sea breeze by 18-20z. Sea breeze collision near/east of MCO/SFB by 22-23z will spark sct TSRA, some strong, with 35+ kt winds and hail (focused from MCO/TIX southward). Activity will linger thru 02-03z, esp. VRB to SUA, before dissipating. CIG/VIS reductions are possible from MCO/TIX to SUA due to TSRA, and PROB30/TEMPOs are included. Winds veer N/NE by 12z Tue, increasing to 7-13 kt after 14z, as a front pushes south across the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 71 83 71 / 40 30 70 30 MCO 92 73 86 71 / 50 10 70 20 MLB 91 75 85 75 / 60 40 70 40 VRB 93 74 86 75 / 60 50 70 60 LEE 90 72 86 70 / 30 10 70 20 SFB 91 72 86 70 / 50 20 70 20 ORL 91 73 86 71 / 40 10 70 20 FPR 93 74 86 74 / 70 50 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Schaper
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Today![]() Slight Chance T-storms |
Tonight![]() Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy |
Tuesday![]() Mostly Sunny then Showers Likely |
Tuesday Night ![]() Showers Likely |
Wednesday![]() Chance T-storms then Showers Likely |
| Hi 86 °F | Lo 81 °F | Hi 85 °F | Lo 80 °F | Hi 83 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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