Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

510
FXUS62 KMLB 040811
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
311 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

- A Frost Advisory remain in effect for North Lake and Inland
  Volusia counties through 8 AM.

- Increased southwest flow and low humidity will result another
  fire sensitive day, mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor.

- A good chance for showers tonight into Thursday. Below normal
  temperatures follow into late week, but not as cold as this past
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Finally some seasonable temperatures. Briefly.
Elongated high pressure extending from Florida into the Atlantic
departs eastward ahead of an approaching cold front associated
with a low pressure system developing over and tracking east
across the Deep South. Temperatures this afternoon recover into
the 60-70s, with highs topping out in the L-M70s, then cooling
off into the M40s-L50s tonight. Sensitive fire weather conditions
continue across along and north of I-4 as humidity drops below
40% and southwest winds increase to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Rain-wise, remaining mostly dry through the evening (could see an
isolated shower graze the Treasure Coast during the day), then
chances increase tonight to 50-70% as the front approaches. Only
moisture of note (PWATs 1.1-1.3") will be right along the frontal
boundary, but a trough digging well down to Florida will provide
sufficient upper level support for a band of light to maybe
moderate showers pushing through Central Florida, mainly between
midnight tonight and Thursday afternoon. A few embedded heavy
showers will be possible, but chances for lightning storms are
less than 10%. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts once again look
meager and likely won`t put a dent in the worsening drought
conditions. The NBM QPF is being incredibly optimistic, calling
for 0.25-0.5" across most of the area, and a band of 0.5-1.0"
extending into the Orlando metro. However, other guidance is much
less enthusiastic, with HREF probabilities for more than 0.5"
effectively zero, and ECM ensemble probabilities only 10-20% near
to north of the I-4 corridor. The latter are consistent with HRRR
and RRFS which call for a quarter inch or less of rainfall,
except one or two lucky spots that may get around half an inch.

At the beaches, a High Risk of life-threatening currents
continues due to lingering long period swell.

Thursday-Friday...A pair of cold fronts bring back chilly
weather, but not as cold or as long lasting as the outbreak we
just closed out. The first front, belonging to a low pressure
system pushing offshore the Southeast Seaboard early Thursday,
reaches our northern counties around daybreak and departs to the
southeast in the afternoon. A band of scattered to numerous
showers (PoPs 50-70%) ongoing in the morning ahead of the front
will continue to press southeast through the afternoon. As
mentioned in the previous section, most places will see a quarter
inch or less of rainfall, but one or two spots could receive
around half an inch. Breezy/gusty conditions develop Thursday
afternoon behind the front as winds shift to the northwest and
increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Winds could briefly
further increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph for a few
hours in the late afternoon and evening, before settling down in
the late evening to early overnight. Highs Thursday top out in the
U50-U60s.

Parts of East Central Florida could see the return of freezing
temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning, notably the far
northern counties and the rural interior south of Orlando.
Chances of these spots reaching freezing have dropped a bit since
the last package to generally 20-40%, up to 50% in far
northwestern Volusia. While there is pretty good confidence the
rest of the area won`t see freezing temperatures, with lows in
the M-U30s, overnight winds 5-10 mph will push wind chills into
the U20s-L30s across the area. Patchy frost will be possible even
if temperatures don`t reach freezing in wind sheltered locations,
or areas where winds go light. Even if frost and freezing
temperatures aren`t realized, wind chills will remain a concern.
Residents and visitors should again protect plants, people, pets,
and pipes from the cold.

Cool and dry Friday as high pressure builds into the Gulf and
towards Florida, with highs in the L-M60s. Winds could become
gusty at times in the afternoon. Lows Friday night into Saturday
morning recover into the L-M40s with wind chills in the U30s-L40s.

Saturday-Tuesday...Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to the
U60s-L70s, before the second front associated with a somewhat
disorganized low pressure system over the Northeast, hot on the
heels of the previous system lifting northeast off the Atlantic
seaboard, pushes a reinforcing backdoor front through late
Saturday. There is a higher than normal degree of uncertainty in
the forecast, particularly temperatures Sunday, due to complex
interactions between these two low pressure systems. Cooling from
this second front is looking less effective than previous
forecasts, only bring temperatures Sunday morning down to the
L40s-L50s, possibly the U30s well north of I-4, then lows recover
to the L40s-L50s Sunday night into Monday morning. Seasonable
temperatures return Monday afternoon, and daresay East Central
Florida could see some warmer weather by midweek. Dry conditions
persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions, however in
the Gulf Stream, seas remain a bit choppy and winds increase again
late tonight. Elongated high pressure over Florida and the local
Atlantic waters pushes offshore ahead of a cold front associated
with a low pressure system developing over and tracking east
across the Deep South. Winds largely variable at 5-10 kts through
the day, with seas 2-4 ft. Late tonight winds begin to increase as
the front approaches, becoming south 5-15 kts early tonight,
shifting to the west 10-20 kts early Thursday morning, highest
well offshore in the Gulf Stream.

Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions deteriorate again, becoming
poor to hazardous through the rest of the week from a pair of
weather systems, then improving by Sunday. The low pressure
system pushing offshore the Southeast seaboard will deepen while
dragging a cold front across the Florida peninsula and the local
Atlantic waters Thursday. Westerly winds 15-20 kts ahead of the
front shift northwesterly and increase to 20-25 kts, peaking
Thursday night. Seas 2-4 ft build to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream and
4-7 ft closer to shore in response. Winds and seas settle some on
Friday but remain poor to hazardous, then pick back up again late
Friday into Saturday as another front from a broad low pressure
system pushing offshore the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic seaboard
swings through the area. Could see better boating conditions in
the nearshore waters by Saturday morning, but conditions likely to
remain poor to hazardous in the Gulf Stream into Saturday evening
from lingering seas. Winds become favorable by Sunday as high
pressure builds over the Eastern US, but some choppy seas could
persist.

Scattered to numerous showers will accompany the first front late
Wednesday into Thursday, then dry conditions return, including the
second frontal passage late in the week. Lightning storms are not
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR continue thru most of the TAF. Light/variable wind thru 15z,
increasing to 10 knots thereafter. Winds mainly SW but veering SSE
along the coast (SUA northward to MLB) thru the afternoon. A cold
front approaches after 03z Thu., bringing VCSH and lower CIGs
from NW to SE at most terminals Thu. morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure over Florida departs seaward today ahead of the next
front. Light and largely variable winds this morning become
southwesterly 5-10 mph this afternoon, shifting southeasterly
along the coast from a weak sea breeze, then becoming light
southwesterly to southerly overnight. Min RHs remain near critical
values 35-40% along and north of I-4, increasing to 40-60% to the
southeast. Afternoon dispersion values Very Good to Excellent. A
band of scattered to numerous showers preceding the front will
push through the area late tonight through Thursday afternoon.
Rainfall amounts generally a quarter inch or less.

The frontal boundary arrives at the northern counties around
daybreak Thursday, and departs southeast of the area in the
afternoon. Winds shift northeast and increase to 10-15 mph with
gusts to 25 mph behind the front, peaking 15-20 mph with gusts to
30 mph in the late afternoon and evening, before settling down in
the late evening to overnight. The band of scattered to numerous
showers ongoing ahead of the will continue pressing southeast
through the afternoon. Min RHs recover to 50-70%. Afternoon
dispersion values Generally to Very Good.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  48  59  34 /   0  60  50   0
MCO  72  50  60  37 /   0  60  60   0
MLB  71  49  63  35 /  10  60  70   0
VRB  72  48  64  36 /  10  50  70   0
LEE  71  49  59  34 /  10  70  40   0
SFB  72  49  60  35 /   0  60  50   0
ORL  73  51  60  37 /   0  60  60   0
FPR  72  48  65  35 /  10  50  60   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion