Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

207
FXUS62 KMLB 251048
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
648 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Storm chances decrease for this Memorial Day and Tuesday, with
  only 20-30% coverage in the afternoon and evening.

- The High Risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  Atlantic beaches today. Avoid swimming in the rough surf.
  Moderate HeatRisk continues as well, so please stay hydrated if
  you plan to spend time outdoors this afternoon.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Wednesday, lasting
  through at least next weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be
  beneficial for the drought, but those who see repeated rounds of
  storms will need to be monitored for flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The broad pattern remains unchanged this morning. Florida`s
weather remains under the control of a deep-layer high-pressure
system. The 591 dam upper high sits northeast of the Bahamas,
while a large surface high extends from the NW Atlantic to the
Deep South. Southeasterly onshore breezes maintain a mT air mass
across the state, with PWAT (total moisture) values near to just
above seasonal norms.

The 24/12Z ensemble suite is in excellent agreement through
midweek. As the upper high nudges slightly closer to the state,
somewhat lower moisture is slated to advect overhead through
tomorrow. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows that some of this drier air
is already encroaching. Then, as an omega block begins to form
over the mid-latitudes of N America, a trough near the Canadian
Maritimes should cause the ridge to weaken and settle southward
during the second half of the work week. As the surface ridge axis
follows suit, our prolonged stretch of onshore flow is expected
to end by Thursday or Friday.

Bouts of subtropical energy emanating from a disturbance over the
Southwest U.S. should undercut the developing omega block. One
such disturbance is expected to slowly transit the Gulf late this
week. Ahead of it, a plume of rich tropical moisture (PWATs >
1.75") should reach the state beginning Wednesday. By the weekend,
cluster analysis strongly implies that a shortwave trough will
sit either over or just north of Florida. The combination of this
energy, copious moisture, and offshore boundary-layer flow
provides multiple opportunities for unsettled weather, with
impacts peaking either this weekend or early next week. This is in
line with a region of favorable 200 hPa divergence and potential
upward motion across the eastern Gulf and Florida by the weekend.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tuesday...

This should be the quietest portion of the week from a weather
perspective. Those attending Memorial Day events should plan
on seasonably hot temperatures and low (but not zero) chances
for showers and storms. Somewhat drier air and less convergence
for storm development is noted among the hi-res models through
Tuesday. This leaves us with a few low-topped showers near the coast
in the morning, transitioning to 20-30% coverage of showers and
storms over the interior by afternoon and evening. Typical diurnally
driven summerlike storms are expected, with brief, gusty winds,
occasional lightning, and heavy rainfall as the primary threats.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues, as does the High Risk of
life-threatening rip currents through at least tonight.

Wednesday - Friday...

The latter half of the work week will be transitional. Moisture
will quickly increase beginning Wednesday and remain anomalous from
there. As ridging weakens, the surface high pressure axis slowly
slips southward, reaching our latitude by Thursday before sinking
toward the Florida Straits on Friday. With flow eventually turning
offshore, the eastern half of the peninsula should see progressively
higher coverage of showers and storms. An early look at proximity
soundings from model guidance reveals light winds through the
column but plentiful afternoon instability. Gusty wet microbursts
(40-50 mph) and torrential rainfall, leading to localized minor
flooding, appear to be the primary hazards.

High temperatures will remain seasonably warm before storms get
going, in the upper 80s to around 90 F. Lows remain balmy in the
low/mid 70s.

Next Weekend...

There are still plenty of details to iron out, as evidenced by the
spread of outcomes in the guidance. However, the overall setup
remains favorable for multiple rounds of showers and storms. A
direct moisture tap from the Caribbean Sea, combined with a weak
disturbance, should promote 70-80% rain chances each day. Repeated
rounds of storms could begin to cause some flooding issues if they
affect the same areas. Over the weekend, most likely rainfall
amounts are 1-2 inches. For much of east central Florida, there
is at least a 10% chance of receiving 3" or more.

High temperatures settle a couple of degrees below normal in the
mid 80s due to extra cloud cover, but it will be quite muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

High pressure remains in charge across the Western Atlantic, with
a surface ridge axis extending from near Bermuda to North Florida
today. Moderate to at times fresh southeast breezes will persist,
which may occasionally cause poor boating conditions. By later this
week, high pressure will weaken and settle south of the waters as a
weak disturbance gathers in the Gulf. Isolated showers and storms
are forecast early this week, with increasing coverage later in
the week.

SE winds 12-18 kt through Wednesday, becoming SSE around 10 kt on
Thursday. Seas 4-5 ft through Wednesday, then 2-4 ft on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Starting off with VCSH at coastal terminals to account for Atlc
SHRA lifting NW and crossing portions of the coast. Patchy MVFR
cu field this morning but some drier air advecting from the east
should limit afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA chances for inland
terminals. Have maintained VCSH for MCO/SFB aft 17Z/18Z. SE winds
increasing shortly after sunrise becoming enhanced behind a
diffuse sea breeze boundary reaching 17-20 knots gusting 25-28
knots especially along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  90  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
MLB  88  79  89  79 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  89  79  90  79 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  91  75  91  75 /  30  30  60  60
SFB  92  75  92  76 /  20  10  30  20
ORL  91  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20
FPR  88  78  89  78 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion