Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

617
FXUS62 KMLB 281053
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
653 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work week, with
  just isolated to scattered showers north of Orlando Thursday
  afternoon.

- Hot temperatures mid-week into the first half of the weekend,
  especially over the interior.

- A long period swell building across the local Atlantic waters
  will promote High Risk of life-threatening rip currents this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Today-Tonight...An upper level shortwave moves off of the
Southeast US coast today, as high pressure builds southward across
the peninsula. A few showers are present on KJAX radar drifting into
the Volusia County coast, nearer to the shortwave, prior to sunrise
this morning. Have introduced PoPs ~20% for this area. However,
expect to see showers diminish as the sun begins to rise. CAMs are
on board with generally dry conditions today, so have maintained no
mentionable PoPs. Although, can`t rule out a light shower or two
drifting onshore this morning, embedded within a layer of moisture
between 900-850mb. Little vertical development is forecast, with
very dry air present above 850mb. Onshore flow prevails today,
increasing to around 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze this afternoon.
Easterly winds will help to keep coastal areas in the lower 80s, but
interior locations are expected to see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Light winds tonight could lead to some patchy fog west of I-95 late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Dry conditions continue to
prevail, with overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s.

Wednesday...Surface high pressure sags southward and flattens over
the Straits of Florida, as a trough digs through the Northeast US.
Dry conditions prevail, despite a slight uptick in available
moisture (PWATs 1.1-1.3"). Light southwesterly winds develop along
the northern periphery of the ridge, making for a very warm day
across east central Florida. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s will
flirt with a few records over the interior (see the Climate section
for more details). At the coast, a weak afternoon sea breeze will
help to keep temperatures a bit more modest, in the mid to upper
80s. Despite the above normal daytime temperatures, overnight lows
remain just a few degrees above normal in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday-Monday...The aforementioned ridge over the Straits will
help to fend off a weak cold front moving into north Florida. As the
front stalls into Thursday afternoon, rain chances increase
generally north of Orlando, becoming 20-30%. A few storms can`t be
ruled out, though instability overall is forecast to be low, with
low CAPE and warmer (-8C) temperatures aloft. The front will
linger across north Florida Friday, with quasi-zonal flow in the
mid and upper levels. Mostly dry conditions return, with just a
few showers (PoPs ~20%) forecast for Friday afternoon across far
northern Lake and Volusia Counties. Highs will remain well above
normal to near record in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

This weekend, the stalled boundary lifts northward into the
Southeast, as a stronger trough moves through the eastern US. At
the surface, the earlier ridge moves seaward, away from the
Florida peninsula. With no ridge to the south, the front
associated with the trough is forecast to move through central
Florida this weekend and into early next week. Shower and storm
chances begin to increase Saturday afternoon (20-40%) across
northern portions of the forecast area, before increasing to
70-80% area-wide on Sunday. Will need to monitor the threat for a
few strong storms Sunday, as temperatures cool aloft. However,
models suggest the support along the front may outrun the
associated precipitation. Regardless, scattered showers and storms
are forecast to linger into early next week across southern
portions of the area, as the front slows and stalls over the
Straits. A cooldown to nearer to normal highs follows the front,
but not before temperatures soar into the lower to mid-90s on
Saturday. Be sure to stay hydrated for any weekend events.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Hazardous boating conditions this morning behind a cold front will
improve into tonight, as high pressure builds over the area. Until
then, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect offshore. Seas up
to 5-7 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning will diminish to 4-6 ft
this afternoon and evening. Some lingering 5 ft seas offshore
continue to diminish through mid week. Otherwise, seas generally
3-4 ft through the end of the work week. Easterly winds today veer
offshore through Friday, though they will become E/SE each
afternoon at 10-15 kts along the coast as the sea breeze develops.
Mostly dry, with just a few to scattered showers and storms over
the northern Volusia County waters Thursday, as a front drops into
northern Florida.

Another cold front will approach the area this weekend. Increasing
S/SW winds and coverage of showers and storms is forecast. While
seas are expected to build slightly, the expected wind direction
is not quite favorable for hazardous seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A deck of low stratus has spread portions of east central Florida
from Brevard/Osceola counties northward. Models have not
initialized this well leading to lower confidence as to when
IFR/MVFR impacts may recede, but general forecast trends may
suggest ceilings lifting or breaking within a few hours after
sunrise. Scattered light showers have spread onshore the Volusia
and Brevard coast with VCSH mentioned at DAB/SFB/TIX/MLB into mid
morning. Coverage then looks to become widely isolated to mostly
dry through the afternoon. Winds become east-northeast into late
morning, increasing 10-15 kts at most sites. Will continue to
monitor for patchy fog early Wednesday morning, but current
confidence is too low to include in the 12Z TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast through Saturday.
High pressure develops over the local area through Wednesday, with
rain chances remaining below 15%. Easterly winds increase to
10-15 mph behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Onshore flow will
help keep min RH in coastal areas above 50% and highs in the lower
80s. However, interior locations are forecast to see min RH fall
to 40-50%, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. As high pressure
settles into the area Wednesday, winds become lighter (5-10 mph)
and generally southwesterly, with the exception of the east coast
sea breeze across coastal counties. However, drier air and highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s area-wide will lead to min RH
between 35-45% for all but the immediate coast. Very good
dispersion today becomes very good to excellent on Wednesday.

Generally dry conditions continue through Friday, despite a front
stalling across north Florida. While min RH is forecast to remain
just above critical thresholds and winds remain below 15 mph
through the work week, hot temperatures and drought conditions
will make for very sensitive fire weather conditions. Saturday,
breezy southwesterly winds ahead of a front will increase
concerns, as will any lightning strikes from convection Thursday
and Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site   Apr 29     Apr 30     May 1      May 2
DAB    94 (1968)  92 (1953)  94 (2002)  95 (1953)
LEE    94 (2017)  95 (1991)  94 (2017)  95 (1990)
SFB    93 (2017)  93 (1971)  95 (2017)  94 (2010)
MCO    96 (1906)  95 (1971)  96 (1917)  97 (1906)
MLB    91 (1986)  93 (1964)  94 (2002)  95 (2002)
VRB    94 (1986)  91 (1975)  96 (1971)  94 (2002)
FPR    92 (1923)  97 (1971)  93 (2002)  95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  65  89  66 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  86  66  92  68 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  83  69  86  68 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  83  67  87  67 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  88  66  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  86  65  92  67 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  87  66  92  69 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  83  66  87  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion