Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

832
FXUS62 KMLB 041806
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
206 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  the weekend. Residents and visitors to Central Florida`s
  Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean.

- Breezy conditions persist today, with mostly dry conditions.

- Higher rain coverage and increasingly strong onshore winds are
  forecast next week, as a front moves through the state. Beach
  and boating conditions will become increasingly hazardous.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Onshore flow and wave of higher moisture (PW values 1.2-1.3") is
leading to isolated shower development across the coastal waters
and across the Treasure Coast. Have added a slight (20%) chance
for showers for much of east central FL as this wave of moisture
may still allow for isolated showers to push onshore through this
morning and develop along and ahead of a diffuse east coast sea
breeze through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the western Atlantic maintains a
ridge axis well north of the local area today. Drier air lingers
over eastern half of the peninsula, though could see a few waves of
moisture, with PWATs near 1.2" traverse the area through the
afternoon. Mostly dry conditions prevail, though can`t rule out a
shower in one of the bands of moisture, should a cloud become a
little thicker, especially along the southern Treasure Coast this
afternoon. Models suggest a shower or two near Palm Beach County
today, so have maintained 20% PoPs for Martin County, with a
lightning strike or two possible. Generally dry conditions then
prevail into tonight.

Onshore flow persists, with breezy conditions, especially along the
coast. East-southeast winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, are
once again forecast this afternoon. Cooler ocean temperatures will
help to keep coastal counties in the lower 80s this afternoon, while
inland locations reach the mid to near upper 80s. Winds become light
after sunset, as overnight lows dip into the 60s.

Sunday-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge weakens through the weekend,
drifting farther offshore ahead of an approaching front, though the
ridge axis will drift southward towards the local area as it
flattens. Deeper moisture begins to advect into the peninsula, with
PWATs near 1.3-1.4". Rain chances increase accordingly, up to 30-
50%. However, lingering drier air aloft will be a hindrance to deep
convection. The best chance for storms looks to be over the
interior, where lighter winds allow for a sea breeze collision in
the afternoon. Should cells be able to overcome the dry air, it
could contribute to a few stronger storms, with wind gusts near 50
mph and small hail. East-southeast winds remain around 10-15 mph
along the coast, where highs will remain in the lower 80s. Inland
will see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A weakening cold front sags southward through the area into mid-week
next week, as strong high pressure develops over the eastern US and
tightens the pressure gradient. Deep moisture, with PWATs 1.5-1.7",
support along the front, and a strengthening subtropical jet aloft
will lead to widespread PoPs 60-70% and up to 80% on Tuesday. Models
have had trouble agreeing on the timing/placement of the front and
have also differed from run to run, so confidence leaves something
to be desired in the exact timing of the highest rain chances or
rainfall totals. However, what is more confident is that the
southwesterly jet aloft will oppose lower level breezy to windy
onshore flow. This makes for a good setup for convergence showers
and storms along the coast, some of which may linger over areas for
an extended period of time. The bottom line is that coastal
conditions will be unfavorable through at least mid-week, due to
breezy to windy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday and we will need to
monitor the threat for locally heavy rainfall over the next few
days. Fortunately, ongoing drought conditions mean that any rainfall
will be largely beneficial, as long as it doesn`t become excessive.
Current 90th percentile rainfall accumulations peak around 3-4".
Higher cloud cover, rainfall, and breezy winds will keep high
temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, in the lower to mid-
70s.

Thursday-Saturday...Uncertainty lingers late next week into the
weekend in terms of precipitation chances, timing, and
accumulations, as models diverge. However, strong high pressure
lingers over the eastern US, maintaining at least breezy conditions
and coastal concerns. For now, NBM PoPs show rain chances 40-60%
lingering Thursday, before high pressure aloft keeps PoPs to 20-30%
or less into the weekend. With diminishing rain chances, high
temperatures creep back into the upper 70s to lower 80s through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Periods of poor boating conditions due to ESE winds 15-20 kts and
seas up to 6 ft linger today across the offshore waters. More
favorable boating conditions return Sunday into Monday, as high
pressure weakens and a cold front approaches the area. Winds
diminish to 10-15 kts Sunday, before weakening further and veering
offshore for a good portion of the day on Monday. Seas become 3-5
ft. However, increasing moisture will lead to higher rain and
storm chances late weekend and into early next week.

As the aforementioned front sags southward through the local
waters into mid-week, strong high pressure develops over the
eastern US. A tight pressure gradient will produce rapidly
increasing winds Tuesday into Tuesday night, reaching gale-force
gusts prior to sunrise Wednesday. Near-gale onshore winds then
look to persist through at least mid-week. Needless to say,
conditions will be hazardous to dangerous much of next week, as
seas build to 12-16 ft. High coverage of onshore-moving showers
and embedded storms will enhance the unfavorable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A few showers have pushed onshore, generally from TIX to New
Smyrna Beach. Models are not enthusiastic about convection this
afternoon, but indicate the southern Treasure Coast having the
greatest potential. Have maintained VCSH at SUA, but will amend
as necessary. E/SE winds at 10-15KT, gusting 15-25 KT this
afternoon will decrease to 5-10 KT overnight, with the Treasure
coastal terminals remaining breezy through around 07Z. Guidance
shows the potential for some patchy fog to develop over the
interior late tonight into early Sunday. Have kept it out of the
TAF for the time being since confidence is so low. Winds will then
pick back up to 8-13KT with gusts 18-23KT around 14Z. Sea breeze
and boundary collisions will be the primary mechanism for
convection Sunday afternoon. Have included VCTS starting at MCO at
18Z to show this trend. TEMPOs may be added during later TAF
packages if confidence in timing and placement increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  84  65  79 /  10  30  30  70
MCO  67  86  67  83 /  10  50  30  70
MLB  69  82  67  81 /  20  30  30  70
VRB  68  82  66  82 /  20  30  30  60
LEE  66  87  67  83 /  10  40  20  60
SFB  66  87  66  83 /  10  40  30  70
ORL  67  87  67  83 /  10  50  30  70
FPR  67  82  65  83 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion