Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

621
FXUS62 KMLB 291721
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1221 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1040 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents at all central Florida
  Atlantic beaches continues today. Entering the surf is not advised!

- A strong cold front is forecast to move across the peninsula
  overnight into Tuesday morning, bringing below normal
  temperatures areawide into the New Year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Fog has dissipated this morning and thus, the Dense Fog Advisory
was cancelled early at 9 AM. The remainder of the forecast is on
track with increasing clouds expected this afternoon and evening
as a strong cold front approaches the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Current-Tonight...Have, again, initiated a "first-guess" Dense Fog
Advisory for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Brevard
counties - taking it until 15Z/10AM for now. Will see how fog
develops/advects and may have to add additional counties as
necessary. Any fog, locally dense, or low stratus that develops
early this morning should burn off/dissipate thru mid-late
morning as WRLY winds increase to 10-15 mph with higher gusts thru
the day as the pgrad tightens. Travelers should slow down, use
low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance
between vehicles when encountering dense fog.

A strong cold front will move into our northern coverage warning
area (Volusia/Lake) early this evening and traverse the remainder
of ECFL thru the night, continuing south of Okeechobee County and
the Treasure Coast ahead of sunrise Tue morning. Any mentionable
rain chances remain over the local coastal waters, but still
cannot rule out an ISOLD sprinkle or brief shower (~ 10%)
surrounding frontal passage.

At the beaches, a HIGH risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening
rip currents are forecast again today. ENE long period swells
persist across the local Atlc waters. Beachgoers are encouraged
to monitor the forecast closely and heed the advice of local beach
safety officials. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Temperatures starting off in the 50s this morning will rebound, pre-
frontal, into the U70s to L80s areawide, but could take a bit
longer where fog/stratus is slow to dissipate. For tonight into
early Tue morning, values keep trending cooler with latest model
guidance. Lowest readings may fall into the U30s in/around Lake
George in NW Volusia/extreme north Lake counties, with L-M40s
extending further south/east across coastal Volusia and north
Brevard, even including into central Osceola. U40s to L50s further
south/east, except for M-U50s for Martin County. West winds 10-15
mph will transition NW, post-frontal, overnight with some higher
gusts at times which will bring lowest wind chill readings toward
sunrise in the M-U30s north/west of I-4 and L-M40s south thru
north Okeechobee and Brevard. Further south and along the coast
lowest wind chills in the U40s to 50s.

Tue-Tue Night...Post-frontal, surface high pressure slowly begins to
nose into the region from the NW as we retain NW winds 10-15 mph
during the day with these winds becoming lighter during the
evening. Highs generally 58-60F north of I-4 with L-M60s
southward, except U60s for Martin County. Tue night`s lows, likely
the coldest of the week, largely in the 30s almost areawide.
Lowest values in the L30s (1-2hrs) north/west of I-4 and perhaps
some cooler rural locations across the interior - esp southern
Osceola and northern Okeechobee. M-U30s for much of the remainder
of the area, though immediate Space/Treasure coasts may realize
L-M40s. Lowest wind chill & apparent temps Tue overnight and into
Wed morning now in the U20s to L30s across most of the area, save
for 35-40F near the immediate south Brevard/Treasure coasts. A
Cold Weather Advisory may be necessary for overnight. May even
have to entertain a Freeze Watch for Tue overnight. The airmass is
very dry and with low recovery of RHs overnight. A Frost Advisory
seems not likely with elevated winds and poor RH recovery.

Wed-Mon...Persistent W/NW flow aloft will allow occasional mid-level
troughs to traverse the region, as well as keep "lower mid-level
heights" over the area. The much cooler/drier airmass will come with
PWATs well under an inch which will keep PoPs absent from the
forecast at least into early Sat. At the surface, weak high pressure
continues to transition across the Deep South/Gulf to across the
FL peninsula. The next forecast cold front may push through late
next weekend, but this far out it appears on a weakening trend by
the time it makes it into central FL. For now, we carry a small
PoP (~20%) on Sat, otherwise the extended is mostly dry. Skies
look to remain MClear to PCloudy for much of the extended.

High temps for Wed nearly mirror those on Tue - perhaps a couple
degrees cooler, generally in the 60s Thu, U60s to L70s on Fri, and
a return into the 70s as we continue the warming trend Sat-Mon.

Winds remain forecast around 5 mph for Wed/Thu/Fri night`s so wind
chills won`t be a greater concern as Tue overnight. However, mins
Wed/Thu night`s will still find their way down into the M-U30s to
around 40F across much of the interior and perhaps coastal Volusia
with L-M40s along the immediate coastline southward. Mins Fri night
into Sat morning generally in the 40s to L50s areawide. A slow
warming trend Sat/Sun overnight with generally 50s for lows areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Favorable boating conditions will wind down late today ahead of an
approaching strong cold front. WSW/W winds 10-15 kts develop during
the day, but begin to increase this evening/overnight to (NW) 15-25
kts areawide (ahead of daybreak Tue morning) as the front swings
thru the local waters. Seas 2-4 ft today will build tonight 4-6
ft near shore and 5-8 ft offshore by early Tue morning. NW winds
begin to decrease thru the day on Tue ever slowly with seas
subsiding to 3-5 ft near shore and 5-7 ft offshore by late day
Tue. Winds/seas will gradually continue to decrease thru mid/late
week.

A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this evening and
expand to all of the local waters by Tue morning. Poor to
hazardous conditions are likely to linger through Tuesday evening
before returning to a favorable state mid to late week.

ISOLD-SCT shower chances will accompany the front Mon night/Tue
morning, esp over offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Becoming gusty this afternoon as winds veer WSW from 10-20 mph
ahead of a cold front. VFR conds until front approaches tonight
from north to south. Along the front, a brief period of MVFR CIGs
is likely (60% +), according to hi-res guidance. Timing for MCO
is around 3-5Z, as late as 7-10Z at SUA. VFR returns with brisk NW
winds 8-15 KT on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

WRLY winds develop today ahead of the approaching strong cold
front 10-15 mph with some higher gusts. It will remain
breezy/gusty tonight as the pgrad remains rather tight as winds
veer NW behind the front (north to south) during the
evening/overnight. Much drier and colder air will filter down the
peninsula for this upcoming week (Tue-Fri) as fire sensitivity is
heightened. NW winds 10-15 mph on Tue, with wind speeds generally
AOB 10 mph the rest of the week. RHs crash 25-35% Tue- Thu, almost
areawide, then begin a slow rebound 35-48% on Fri. A slow warming
trend begins by Fri as well. The next forecast cold front may not
be until later next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  58  34  59 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  45  60  37  59 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  47  62  37  62 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  50  64  37  63 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  41  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  44  59  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  45  59  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  65  36  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion