Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

992
FXUS62 KMLB 241059
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
659 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- A high risk of rip currents exists at Volusia and northern
  Brevard County beaches today, with a moderate risk farther
  south. Entering the surf north of Cape Canaveral is strongly
  discouraged.

- Showers and lightning storms return today from north to south,
  continuing tonight into Wednesday. A strong storm or two and
  locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Drier late week before another cold front arrives Saturday,
  bringing more showers, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Today-Tonight...We are off to a quiet start this morning with
temperatures settling in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A weakening cold
front is approaching north Florida and will be the focus for changes
to our weather pattern today and tomorrow. Modeled PW values
increase from north to south, reaching 1.5-1.6" over the northern
half of the area this afternoon. Low-level moisture advection will
be enhanced north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral due to coupled sfc-800mb
northeast winds, which could become breezy to gusty at times. Most
models suggest 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE by this afternoon in this
area, pooled along and ahead of the southward-moving front. We
should begin to see some shower and isolated lightning storm
development as early as 12 PM or 1 PM along the Volusia coast,
gradually spreading southward through the afternoon hours. CAMs are
not overly impressive with convective coverage, likely due to the
meager 25-30 knots of 0-6km shear. That said, a storm that develops
a semi-sustained updraft could produce lightning strikes, locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail (freezing level ~12.5
kft / -13C at 500mb).

Cloud cover expands southward into tonight as the surface front
settles and effectively stalls across the southern third of the
area. Model guidance has lacked run-to-run consistency on where to
place locally higher amounts of rainfall, but there is still enough
of a signal in HREF/REFS guidance to suggest a low potential for
higher amounts of 2-4" (20-30% chance) closer to the coast. Opposing
low and mid level wind directions, albeit weak, could briefly
enhance moisture convergence along the stalled front tonight. More
recent CAM and GFS/ECM runs suggest some higher totals from near the
Cape southward to Palm Bay and northern portions of the Treasure
Coast. However, confidence is low in any one solution at this time.

Temperatures today will range from the mid/upper 70s north (where
rain and clouds move in) to the mid/upper 80s south near Lake
Okeechobee. Overnight lows stay relatively mild as onshore flow
becomes anchored overhead (low/mid 60s).

Thinking of heading to the beach? A high risk of rip currents now
exists from Cape Canaveral northward to Daytona Beach and points
north. Entering the water at those local beaches is highly
discouraged. Farther south, a moderate risk of rip currents remains,
and residents/visitors should heed the advice of lifeguards. Never
enter the ocean alone!

Wednesday-Thursday...With the front stalled over the southern
portion of the area Wednesday and sufficient moisture present, the
chance for isolated to scattered showers and a couple of storms
persists. The developing east coast breeze may slightly increase low-
level convergence along the front, aiding in convective initiation.
Rain amounts of generally 0.25" or less are most likely, though
locally higher amounts around 1" around a storm cannot be ruled out.
Sun may shine through some clouds on Wednesday, but post-frontal
temperatures (nearly areawide) will be in the 70s to low 80s. Rain
chances decrease into Thursday as the front dissipates. However, low
chances (15-25%) remain in the forecast, especially at the coast and
around Lake Okeechobee by Thursday afternoon. Daytime highs warm
back into the upper 70s and low 80s Thursday as high pressure
builds and light onshore flow persists.

The high risk for rip currents will likely expand to all east
central Florida beaches on Wednesday.

Friday-Monday...Mid-level ridging expands eastward from the desert
southwest and Gulf Coast late in the week with surface ridging
briefly settling over Florida. Dry conditions are forecast Friday as
temperatures climb into the 80s areawide. Ridging weakens Saturday
as another cold front, slightly stronger this time, approaches
central Florida. This frontal passage marks our next chance for rain
(perhaps an isolated storm) with the higher chances focused closer
to the coast and moreso across southern locations by Sunday. As the
front pushes south Saturday into Sunday, northeast winds become
breezy to gusty. Sunday appears particularly gusty (30+ mph at
times). Overall, rain chances decrease into early next week, though
some solutions maintain enough moisture within the onshore flow that
coastal showers are still possible. Saturday is warm ahead of the
front and then temperatures slide back into the 70s Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Boating conditions deteriorate from north to south today as a
frontal boundary approaches. East-northeast winds along and behind
the front increase to around 20-25 knots, particularly north of
Cape Canaveral. Speeds decrease on Wednesday and then remain 10-
14 knots or less through late week. Winds veer offshore briefly
Saturday morning before another cold front quickly approaches from
the north, producing another round of poor to hazardous boating
conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Waves increase in response to freshening northeast winds this
afternoon, reaching 7-13 ft this evening north of Sebastian Inlet.
Heights of 6-10 ft spread southward tonight into Wednesday
morning with seas slowly subsiding late Wednesday into early
Thursday. Small Craft Advisories begin over the Volusia and
offshore Brevard waters early this afternoon and quickly expand
southward this evening into Wednesday. Small craft should exercise
caution prior to the onset of these advisories. High pressure
builds overhead Thursday and Friday before seas build again this
weekend (Saturday afternoon) in response to increasing onshore
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, mainly across
Lake, Okeechobee and Osceola counties. Confidence remains too low
to include any fog mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise,
VFR through this morning. Light W/NW winds will veer NNE/NE by
mid morning/early afternoon as a weak front pushes southward
across ECFL. Speeds will increase to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT
by the afternoon, perhaps a little higher along the Volusia/north
Brevard coasts. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase
gradually through the day, esp KTIX northward. Latest model
guidance shows activity starting by late morning or early
afternoon, perhaps earlier at KDAB. Otherwise, showers and storms
will start around 18Z. Have included VC wording 15/18Z for TIX
northward, and 21Z for MLB, as well as TEMPO groups for interior
sites and DAB. As confidence grows, may need to include further
TEMPOs as necessary. Have maintained VCSH for the overnight hours
tonight from MLB northward for lingering shower activity. Guidance
is indicating MVFR (maybe brief IFR) CIGs starting this
afternoon/evening and continuing through the overnight hours
across much of the interior and DAB. So have included MVFR for
this afternoon for those terminals. Models are showing a brief
break in showers mid morning Wednesday, but will returning by the
afternoon. N/NE winds will decrease to around 10 KT after 00Z
Wednesday, except DAB which will be around 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  63  76  62 /  60  60  50  10
MCO  83  66  77  64 /  30  40  50  10
MLB  80  64  78  65 /  30  50  60  20
VRB  81  63  80  63 /  20  40  50  30
LEE  79  63  78  62 /  30  30  40  10
SFB  81  64  78  62 /  40  50  50  10
ORL  82  65  78  64 /  30  40  50  10
FPR  82  61  80  62 /  10  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion