Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

177
FXUS62 KMLB 261748
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1248 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Remaining mild to warm today. A cold front brings a 30-50%
  chance of showers followed by breezy west-northwest winds this
  afternoon. Worsening boating conditions by tonight.

- Windy tonight as decidedly colder air arrives. A Cold Weather
  Advisory has been posted for all except the immediate Space and
  Treasure Coast. In the advisory area, wind chills of 30 degrees
  or less will make it feel even colder.

- Multiple nights of unusually cold weather yet to come. A Freeze
  Warning is in effect for areas north of Orlando tonight, and a
  Freeze Watch has been issued for Greater Orlando, Osceola
  County, and points northward for Tuesday night. Consider
  covering tender plants or bringing them inside, if possible.

- Confidence is high that below-normal temperatures will last for
  the next week to ten days, if not longer. There is a low to
  moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures late this
  weekend or early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

The upper-air pattern across N America is highly amplified
this morning. Phasing of the subtropical and polar jet stream
has resulted in a longwave trough over the eastern Plains and
Midwest. This spawned a dangerous winter storm stretching from
Texas to New England. To its south, anomalous mid-level ridging
extends from the W Caribbean into the tropical Western Atlantic.
Florida resides between these two features.

Low pressure has migrated into the Northeast U.S., with a sharp
trailing cold front extending to the Florida Panhandle. This
boundary divides an Arctic air mass to its northwest from a
spring-like warm sector over the Florida Peninsula. The grand
ensemble is in excellent agreement with the evolution of this
pattern over the next couple days. A shortwave at the base of the
trough is forecast to drive this cold front eastward and through
Florida today. 5,000 ft (H85) temperatures crash dramatically --
from the 95th to the 10th percentiles of climatology -- between
now and Tuesday morning. Cold surface high pressure, currently
over Kansas, drifts toward the Deep South over the next couple
days. This will provide the north to northwest winds necessary
to send temperatures and moisture values well below normal by
Monday night.

The door remains wide open for additional surges of Arctic
air into the eastern United States over the next week to
ten days. Teleconnection graphs show a `trifecta` of sorts for
unusually cold weather. First, the Arctic Oscillation is reaching
a nadir of -5 early this week and is forecast to remain negative
for the balance of the next two weeks. NAO has also gone negative,
and right on cue, the PNA is going positive. Hemispheric charts
tell the tale as H5 heights are forecast to remain above normal
over the Arctic. This displaces much colder air southward into the
mid-latitudes.

While below normal temperatures are favored for the foreseeable
future, timing out and assessing the risks for impactful cold
and freezing temperatures across Central Florida will require a
closer look at individual disturbances within this active weather
pattern. There are a pair of features worth keeping an eye on from
later this week through the weekend.

First, a piece of energy should pass from the Rockies into the
Southeast around Thursday, reinforcing the Arctic air mass over the
Eastern U.S. Trailing close behind appears to be another shortwave
approaching Florida by around Saturday. Cluster analysis from the
25/12Z suite, along with early-arriving 26/00Z guidance, leaned
toward some phasing of this feature with a lobe of the polar vortex
to the north of the state. However, confidence remains very low,
evidenced by a very large H5 height interquartile spread by next
Sunday. If this disturbance interacts with the northern stream, the
cold risks for Central Florida would become even more significant
by the weekend.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

As I type, all of east central Florida still sits in the low 70s,
which is very uncommon for late January. We will wake up to our
last balmy morning for quite some time to come. A cold front
enters from the northwest early this morning, exiting the Treasure
Coast by late afternoon. As it passes, a ribbon of moisture will
support scattered showers. Coverage today will range from 30-50%.
Very light totals are anticipated, and the chance of lightning is
20% or less.

We expect areas ahead of the front to warm quickly today, with
low and mid 80s south of Melbourne to Okeechobee. Farther north,
low to mid 70s are forecast. West-northwest winds turn breezy,
gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon. A disturbance passing well
north of the area will then force a surface trough through here
this evening. As it does, winds turn out of the northwest, tapping
into the much colder air just off to our north. After sunset,
gusts of 20-25 mph over land, and up to 30-35 mph on the barrier
islands, will continue as temps start to plummet.

By daybreak, temperatures should fall into the low to mid 30s over
most of the interior and all of Volusia County, with 40s in most
places south of Melbourne. There is a greater than 50% chance of
a freeze across parts of Lake and inland Volusia Counties where
a Freeze Warning has been issued. Wind chills nosedive into the
mid-upper 20s by daybreak from Daytona Beach to Okeechobee and
points westward, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for all but
areas along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward. Please take
precautions to protect you and your pets from the cold.

Tuesday - Friday...

For the remainder of the work week, cold mornings and crisp
afternoons will continue. Very modest moderation, at best,
is forecast due to a reinforcing surge of cool air clipping
the Southeast U.S. around Thursday. This is despite ample
sunshine. Early morning lows should range from 10-20 degrees
below normal, with highs also 10-20 degrees below normal Tuesday
and Wednesday, then 5-10 degrees below normal on Thursday and
Friday.

We have issued a Freeze Watch for Greater Orlando, Osceola Co
and points north over the interior for Wednesday morning. While
freeze probabilities are less than 30% within metro Orlando, they
quickly jump to 50-80% over exurban and rural locales surrounding
the city. Additional Cold Weather Advisories are likely to be
needed each morning through Thursday as wind chills dip into the
mid-upper 20s near and west of I-95.

Despite fairly dry air in place, RH recoveries at night look high
enough for areas of frost to form beginning Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with the greatest coverage in rural areas west of I-95. Over
these spots, folks with annual and tropical plants will need to
protect them for multiple days.

Weekend...

To start off, there is no question that the forecast for the coming
weekend will remain highly variable for at least two to three more
days. The primary challenge is resolving whether two distinct pieces
of energy, currently thousands of miles apart, will interact to form
a large nor`easter-type storm along the Eastern Seaboard. While the
trend has been moving in that direction over the last day or so,
several ensemble members keep the features separated as they make
their closest approach to Florida. This distinction is critical:
when compared to a disorganized system, a strengthening low off
the east coast could very effectively pull Arctic air much
farther southward through the peninsula.

What this means is a period of heightened uncertainty regarding
both moisture and temperatures. We will carry low rain chances
of 20-30% on Saturday as moisture tries to increase ahead of the
arriving energy. If the two features mentioned before do interact,
a blast of windy and much colder air would likely be felt here in
Central Florida beginning sometime late Saturday and continuing into
Sunday. Statistical guidance clearly illustrates the low-confidence
scenario we are dealing with, as interquartile spreads jump to 10
to 15 degrees for both high and low temperatures from Saturday
through Monday.

Whether temperatures remain manageably cooler than normal or become
significantly colder than normal is still in question. While this
is more of a reasonable worst-case scenario signal, the overall
pattern we are entering has historically supported major freezes
and significant cold air outbreaks in Florida. Those making plans
outdoors or whom have sensitive agricultural interests should
keep a close eye on the forecast as this hopefully becomes clearer
by mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

A period of hazardous boating conditions is getting underway early
this week. A cold front passes over the local Atlantic waters
today, causing winds to turn offshore then freshen quickly out of
the north-northwest tonight. Gale-force wind gusts are possible
this evening and early overnight, causing very rough seas. High
pressure drifts toward the Deep South by mid-week, allowing winds
and seas to slowly subside through Wednesday. Another, less intense,
surge of northwest winds may occur on Thursday as a weaker cold
front drifts through the waters.

Small Craft Advisories offshore will expand to include all zones
tonight through Thursday morning. Winds becoming WNW this afternoon,
10-20 KT, increasing out of the NW to 20-30 KT tonight. Seas 4-6
FT today will build to 8-10 FT, except up to 13 FT in the Gulf
Stream tonight. Winds diminish late on Tuesday to NW 10-15 KT,
allowing seas to subside to 3-6 FT by Tuesday night, except up to
8 FT in the Gulf Stream. Seas generally 4-5 FT Wednesday, up to 7
FT by Thursday in the Gulf Stream as the next surge of northwest
winds overtakes the local Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1237 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

The cold front has pushed south of KMCO, near KTIX. Ahead, a line
of deep convection has managed to develop impacting KVRB-KSUA with
gusts a bit over 30 kts and VIS reductions to less than a mile.
MVFR CIGs are also persisting, and outside of convection
southwesterly to westerly winds around 15 kts are gusting to
around 25 kts. Behind the front, mainly VFR conditions at ECFL
terminals, though some occasional MVFR CIGs from cloud fields
west and north of the area could filter in over the next few
hours. Mostly clear to clear skies expected by the evening.

Winds lull a bit to 10-15 kts immediately behind the front
as they shift from westerly to northwesterly, then later this
evening and tonight northwesterly winds are expected to surge to
15-20 kts with gusts over 25 kts, before settling to 10-15 kts
Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Behind a strong cold front, much drier air settles over the Florida
Peninsula beginning tomorrow. Sensitive to near-critical fire
weather conditions are forecast on Tuesday, with fire-sensitive
weather persisting through mid-week. Brisk northwest winds from 8-15
MPH are expected as RH values drop to 25-35% over the interior. RH
values drop to 20-30% across all but the immediate coast once again
on Wednesday and Thursday, but northwest winds decrease slightly
to around 5-10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  33  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  36  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  40  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  61  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  31  54  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  34  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  36  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  44  62  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-044-144.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-
     552.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-
     570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion