Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

035
FXUS62 KMLB 101120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures through Thursday with near record
  highs, especially across the interior

- Low rain chances through mid-week, before a cold front brings
  scattered showers and storms late week and into the weekend

- Deteriorating boating conditions late week, as winds increase
  and seas build

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Today-Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the Florida peninsula
today shifts eastward into the Atlantic through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge also traverses the state, moving
across from the Gulf, ahead of an approaching front. Generally dry
conditions will prevail through mid-week, as ridging suppresses
most development. However, have added in a slight chance (~20%) for
a few showers generally north and west of a line from Kissimmee
to Lake George late this afternoon and into this evening, as the
sea breezes collide in that area. Dry air aloft should prevent
thunderstorm formation, with lightning chances below 10%. PoPs
overall for Wednesday remain below 10%, with even drier air at the
surface.

Some patchy to areas of fog possible early this morning will burn
off after sunrise, with additional patchy for possible generally
south of Orlando overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Light
and variable winds increase in the morning hours, becoming
southeast around 5-10 mph. Winds further increase into the
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, becoming 10-15 mph along the
coast. Hot temperatures continue, with highs up to 8-13 degrees
above average. Near record to record temperatures are forecast for
interior locations, as well as Daytona Beach (see Climate section
for more details). Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are
forecast west of I-95, while the sea breeze keeps coastal areas in
the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday-Tuesday...Low pressure moving across northern New England
drags a cold front through the Southeast on Thursday, before
moving through the local area Thursday night. Rain chances
increase from north to south Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night, with PoPs up to 40-60%. Scattered lightning storms will
also be possible, with the main threats of gusty winds, small
hail, and locally heavy downpours. Southwest flow near 10-15 mph
in the afternoon will once again produce well above normal
temperatures, with even coastal areas reaching the upper 80s due
to a pinned sea breeze.

High pressure redevelops over the western Atlantic into the
weekend and early next week, with the ridge axis near Florida.
However, a series of passing shortwaves aloft and ample moisture
will maintain rain chances near 40-60% Friday and Saturday. PoPs
increase Sunday into Monday (60-70%), as south and southwesterly
flow advects PWATs near 1.6" into the peninsula ahead of yet
another front Monday night. Scattered thunderstorms will remain
possible. High coverage of clouds and showers will support nearer
to normal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, as lows remain in
the 60s. Drier air, lower rain chances, and below normal
temperatures (highs upper 60s/lower 70s, lows 50s) are forecast
Tuesday behind the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week, as high
pressure lingers, then weakens over the local waters. Rain chances
remain below 10% for the coastal and offshore waters through
Wednesday. South to southeast winds increase to 10-15 kts in the
afternoons, as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Seas
2-4 ft.

A cold front then approaches the area Thursday and moves southward
through the local waters into Thursday night. South to southwest
winds increase to up to 15-20 kts by late Thursday afternoon.
Winds then veer north to northeasterly and increase to 20-25 kts
north of the Cape as the front moves through. While the wind surge
will be fairly brief, with flow then becoming onshore around 10-15
kts into Saturday, seas build rapidly from 2-4ft through Thursday
afternoon to 6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream Friday. Conditions look to
improve by late Saturday afternoon. However, scattered showers
Thursday will continue through the weekend, with embedded storms
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Observations have shown fog impacts along the Treasure Coast this
morning. Visibilities should improve at these sites after sunrise
with VFR conditions then forecast to prevail. Light and variable
winds become southeast at most terminals into mid morning,
shifting east as the sea breeze passes this afternoon. Mostly dry
with low rain chances in vicinity of the Orlando metro this
afternoon. However, probabilities remain too low to include
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 10       Mar 11       Mar 11       Monthly March
DAB    86 2023      89 1967      90 1935      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    87 1974      88 2015      88 2001      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    90 1974      88 1974      90 2001      94 3/20/2003
MCO    90 1918      91 1918      89 2001      97 3/30/1907
MLB    90 1964      89 1962      90 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    89 2022      88 1986      88 2023      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    90 2022      90 1997      89 1948      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  65  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  89  67  89  67 /  20  20   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  84  65  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  89  67  89  66 /  20  20   0   0
SFB  90  66  90  66 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  90  67  89  67 /  20  20   0   0
FPR  85  65  84  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion