Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

181
FXUS62 KMLB 250710
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Late night/early morning fog will continue to be possible over
  the next several days, with locally dense fog possible.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures forecast to
  continue into the weekend.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move through the area Monday
  night, ushering in colder than normal conditions through New
  Year`s Eve/New Year`s Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Early this morning... Continuing to monitor for patchy fog early
this morning. Most guidance suggests the potential for sea fog to
develop along the Nature Coast, slowly spreading inland where it may
reach western portions of Lake county before sunrise. Outside of
advective sea fog, a deck of mid level clouds could work to limit
additional fog development across the north. Further south where
skies are clear, there could be a better chance for radiational fog,
but confidence is decreasing at this time.

Today-Sunday... High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions in place
with no mentionable precip through the weekend. The surface ridge
axis is forecast to hold in vicinity of central Florida with light
winds through the period, and the primary weather hazard remains
patchy/areas of fog early each morning. Afternoon highs will be
above normal, mostly in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees. Morning
lows generally range the low to mid 50s, warming some on Sunday.

Monday-Thursday... The local pattern begins to change next week as a
cold front approaches the area Monday, passing central Florida late
Monday night and into Tuesday. Winds increase to 10-15 mph out of
the west Monday, shifting northwest into Tuesday. Current global
model runs are relatively dry along the front, keeping rain chances
20 percent or less. More notably, the front will bring a period of
colder temperatures. Morning lows in the low to mid 50s on Tuesday
fall into the low to mid 40s for most locations Wednesday and
Thursday. The coldest areas are forecast north and west of I-4 where
temperatures are currently modeled in the mid to upper 30s.
Afternoon highs hold above average on Monday ahead of the front
ranging the upper 70s and low 80s. By Tuesday high temperatures fall
into the low to mid 60s near and north of Orlando while spreading
the mid 60s to low 70s further south. Slightly cooler on Wednesday,
with most locations holding in the 60s before beginning a gradual
warming trend Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

High pressure will maintain generally favorable boating conditions
through late week. North/northwest winds mostly hold 10 kts or less
through Friday before shifting offshore Friday night and increasing
to 10-15 kts on Saturday. Winds become light Sunday, gradually
veering throughout the day. Seas mostly 2-4 ft, briefly
increasing up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Saturday.

A cold front approaches the region on Monday, passing the waters
late Monday night into Tuesday. West winds increase ahead of the
front with poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast into Monday
night and Tuesday as winds to shift northwest, building seas 5-7 ft
in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1216 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Blanket of clouds BKN-OVC050-060 across I-4 appearing to be
breaking up, but additional cloud-cover northward that may filter
south into these areas. Models have not handled this well. Keeping
with inherited forecast with TEMPO groups 09-12Z for patchy fog
(MVFR) potential, but confidence remains low as with last night.
Will continue to monitor if amendments necessary. With high
pressure over the area the pressure gradient remains weak.
Generally light NWRLY drainage flow to calm winds thru sunrise.
Winds continue light into Christmas Day with some kind of offshore
to variable component, generally below 10 kts. Expect winds to
veer onshore (NNE) along the coast later in the afternoon with
weak sea breeze appearance. Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions
prevail. Models hinting at higher chances for FG Christmas night
into Fri morning (after 06Z on the 26th).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  55  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  58  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  77  57  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  56  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  79  55  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  56  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  79  57  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  55  78  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion