Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

499
FXUS62 KMLB 310835
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
335 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Preparations for multiple nights of hard freezes should be
  completed this morning, before strong and gusty winds arrive
  this afternoon. Be sure tarps, blankets, or wrappings protecting
  plants and pipes from the cold are well secured.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 PM this afternoon through
  7 AM Sunday morning for winds frequently gusting 35 to 45 mph
  and occasionally over 50 mph. Winds gradually diminish Sunday,
  but breezy/gusty conditions will continue much of the day.

- A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning have been
  issued for all of east central Florida tonight into Sunday
  morning. Dangerous wind chill values 9 to 15 degrees and a hard
  freeze with low temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning.
  Additional watches/warnings for the following nights will be
  needed.

- A Gale Warning has been issued for rapidly deteriorating and
  dangerous boating conditions this afternoon and tonight as winds
  increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely.
  Mariners should remain in port. Poor to hazardous boating
  conditions will linger into early next week, and followup Small
  Craft Advisories and caution statements are likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today-Tonight...Strong winds today precede historic cold tonight.
A low pressure system currently centered over Georgia supported
by a substantial upper-level trough will rapidly deepen as it
pushes offshore the Southeast seaboard. The attendant cold front
will pass quickly through Florida early this morning, departing to
the southeast shortly after sunrise. Moisture recovery ahead of
this front is pretty dismal, with the highest PWATs only reaching
around 1.1" across the southern counties and values less than 1"
to the north, but substantial upper level forcing from the trough
aloft looks to capitalize what little moisture is available, and
support a broad bands of light elevated showers pushing across the
area through the morning and maybe into the early afternoon. A
few additional passing bands of light showers will also be
possible through the afternoon and evening. However, deep
convection is unlikely, and lightning storms are not forecast. In
fact, much of the expected shower activity will struggle to reach
the surface. Rainfall amounts forecast at generally 0.1" or less,
but a few areas down south could see up to 0.2", and there is a
very outside chance for up to 0.5" in a lucky spot or two.

The primary impact during the day will be strong and gusty winds
as the pressure gradient tightens across the area behind the
front, between the rapidly deepening low just off the southeastern
seaboard and arctic high pressure diving down the Central US.
West-northwesterly winds will quickly increase through the
morning, reaching 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph by the early
afternoon, and further increasing to 20-30 mph with frequent gusts
35-45 mph from mid-afternoon into the early overnight. There is a
30-50% chance for occasional gusts over 50 mph. Winds inland will
begin to diminish after midnight, decreasing to 15-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph, but occasional gusts to 40 mph will remain
possible, especially along the coast and across the Orlando Metro
Area. Winds over the Atlantic waters will continue to increase
through the first half of the night, with sustained winds reaching
over 30 mph and gusts 40-50 mph, but the offshore component will
keep the worst of these winds over the waters. A Wind Advisory has
been issued from 3 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Sunday morning.
Preparations for multiple nights of freezing temperatures should
be completed this morning.

Bitterly cold wind chills during the day will become dangerous
tonight. While the front will have cleared the area by morning,
the coldest air won`t arrive until later in the day when strong
cold air advection on the western side of the low brings a slug of
arctic air to Florida. Temperatures only top out in the M50s-M60s
between 2-3 PM, before plummeting to the L40-M50s by sunset, with
sub freezing temperatures overspreading most of the area by
midnight. A hard freeze is forecast for all of East Central
Florida for much of the night and Sunday morning as temperatures
bottom out at record setting lows in in the L-M20s for most of the
area. The southern coast will be spared some, with lows in the
M-U20s and hard freeze lasting for generally 2-4 hours compared to
the better part of the night and morning for the rest of the area.
Forecast lows are 5-10 degrees below daily records for most
locations, and threatening the coldest temperatures for the month
of February for all but Orlando. Combined with the strong and
gusty northwest winds, wind chills drop into the 20-30s shortly
after sunset, bottoming out in the teens and approaching single
digits late tonight and Sunday morning. A Freeze Warning and the
first Extreme Cold Warning issued for all of East Central Florida
since December 2010 remains in effect from 7 PM this evening
through 1 PM Sunday.

People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk
of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some
non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not
properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is
much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected.

Sunday-Monday...Two more nights of freezes are expected early next
week, including another hard freeze for most of the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. The now significant low pressure system
centered off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard will continue lifting
northeast as trailing Arctic high pressure drops into the Gulf
Sunday, then shifts towards Florida Monday. Winds gradually relax,
but Sunday will start off blustery with northwesterly winds 15-20
mph gusting to 35 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25
mph in the afternoon. Despite winds starting to relent, very cold
daytime temperatures only topping out in the M40-L50s (ranging
from a couple to nearly 10 degrees below daily record "cool
highs") will result in wind chills in the 20-30s in the morning,
and 30-40s in the afternoon. Temperatures drop back into the
M20s-L30s Sunday night into Monday morning, which combined with a
now gentle 5-10 mph overnight breeze, will push wind chills into
the teens-L20s for several hours.

Gradual warming starts Monday, but at least some parts of the area
are likely to see one more night of freezing temperatures, and the
other parts frost. Afternoon highs will finally make it into the
50s with a continued 5-10 mph northwesterly breeze. A complicated
arrangement of freezing temperatures and frost is currently
depicted for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Most interior
rural and even suburban areas are forecast for lows to drop to or
below freezing in the U20-L30s, while the coastal corridor,
Orlando urban core, and Martin county are forecast to fall short
in the M30s-40. However, winds are forecast to finally become
light, making most of these spots that will fall short of freezing
temperatures susceptible to frost. Thus, all residents of East
Central Florida should continue to take action to protect
sensitive plants this night.

Tuesday-Friday...The center of the high pressure moving from the
Gulf towards Florida makes it pretty much right overhead early
Tuesday, then continues shifting eastward and offshore ahead of
the next weather system developing over the Southeast. Gradual
warming and dry conditions continue through midweek, with highs
reaching the 60s Tuesday and U60s-L70s (near normal) Wednesday.
While lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are forecast to
finally be above freezing, generally in the M30s-L40s, frost will
continue to be a concern for locations where temperatures drop
below 40, which includes pretty much all of ECFL except the
southern coast and most of Martin County. There are still
considerable differences between the global models` evolution of
the next system late next week, but it won`t have the same potency
as the one arriving today. Some modest rain chances return ahead
of the front, then cooler than normal but far from record cold
late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today-Tonight...A low pressure system pushing offshore the GA-SC-
NC coast this morning will rapidly deepen, causing boating
conditions to quickly deteriorate and become dangerous later today
and especially tonight. The cold front associated this system will
pass quickly through Florida and the local Atlantic waters early
this morning, departing to the southeast shortly after sunrise.
West-northwesterly winds behind the front increase to 15-20 kts
this morning, further increase to 20-25 kts this afternoon, then
surge to 30-40 kts this evening and tonight. Frequent gusts to
gale-force (34 kts) are expected across most of the waters by the
evening, and frequent gusts to strong gale force (45 kts) are
expected late this evening. Occasional gusts to storm-force (over
50 kts) will be possible tonight. Seas 2-4 ft this morning build
to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream by the afternoon, 4-8 ft nearshore and
9-12 ft in the Gulf Stream by the late evening, and up to 7-10 ft
nearshore and 12-17 ft in the Gulf Stream late tonight into early
Sunday morning. The offshore winds will flatten seas along the
immediate coast (closest 1-2 nm) a bit, but only shaving 1-2 ft
off seas prevailing across the rest of the nearshore waters.

Bands of light showers will traverse Florida and the local
Atlantic waters through the day. There is a low potential for
flurries and even light snow showers well offshore tonight into
Sunday morning.

Due to the rapidly deteriorating conditions a Gale Warning starts
at 10 AM this morning, and mariners should remain in port. Any
small craft that choose to venture out this morning should
exercise caution for winds 15-20 kts across all Central Florida
Atlantic waters and seas 4-6 ft in the Gulf Stream before the
warning goes into effect.

Sunday-Tuesday...The low pressure system will have lifted
northeast, centered just offshore the Mid-Atlantic seaboard by
Sunday, and continue departing as high pressure moves into the
Gulf then towards Florida. Winds and seas gradually diminish, but
boating conditions will remain hazardous to dangerous Sunday, and
poor to hazardous conditions will linger through Monday into
Tuesday, especially in the Gulf Stream. The Gale Warning currently
remains in effect through 1 PM Sunday, with follow-on Small Craft
Advisories needed the rest of Sunday, and a combination of
Advisories and caution statements Monday and Tuesday.

Northwest winds 25-35 kts with frequent gusts to gale-force
Sunday morning decrease to 20-30 kts in the afternoon, and 15-25
kts in the evening, which are forecast to linger through the
night. Seas 10-17 ft in the Gulf Stream and 6-9 ft closer to shore
in the morning subside to 7-12 ft and 5-8 ft in the early
overnight. More improvement but still poor to hazardous conditions
Monday as northwest winds 15-25 kts in the morning finally
decrease to 10-20 kts in the evening, and seas 7-11 ft in the Gulf
Stream and 5-8 ft closer to shore in the morning gradually
subside to 5-9 ft and 4-7 ft in the early overnight. Northwest
winds finally subside to 5-15 kts by Tuesday, but 6-7 ft seas
persist in the Gulf Stream.

Dry conditions through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 107 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions mostly forecast for today into tonight. A cold
front crosses the area this morning, with a surge of arctic air
moving into the area behind this front into tonight. Isolated to
scattered showers, and perhaps some bands of light rain will be
possible early this morning and through the day before the
colder/drier airmass scours out any lingering moisture and cloud
cover by tonight. Cigs should mostly remain VFR, but some periods
of MVFR cigs can`t be ruled out, especially into the late morning
and afternoon.

West-northwest winds will start out around 5-10 knots early this
morning, but will increase through the day and become very windy
into the afternoon as low level wind fields increase rapidly
behind the front. W/NW winds of 20-25 knots will gust to 30-35
knots at all terminals across east central Florida, especially
from 20Z this afternoon continuing through 06Z tonight. Gusts to
45 knots at times can`t be ruled out during this window as well.
This will lead to crosswind concerns, especially at KMCO. Will
also have to closely monitor the need for Airport Weather
Warnings at both MCO and DAB for sustained winds of 25 knots and
greater.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph this
afternoon and evening will lead to containment issues of any
fires. Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible
Sunday as humidity drops to 20-30% while northwesterly winds
remain around 15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph
or less Monday, but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due
to humidity values less than 30%.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  24 02/18/1958   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/26/1967   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        25 02/18/1958   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      27 02/26/1967   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     28 02/24/1989   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  23  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  58  25  46  28 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  62  25  48  27 /  30  10   0   0
VRB  62  26  49  26 /  40  20   0   0
LEE  56  23  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  58  24  45  26 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  57  25  45  28 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  63  25  49  26 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion