








National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
196 FXUS62 KMLB 101827 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 227 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 - Coverage of showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening will become scattered to numerous. This diurnal coverage will continue through early to mid-week. - Some storms and may be strong to severe later today and Monday. Primary storm hazards are frequent lightning, strong to damaging winds, hail, and torrential downpours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. - Highs remain above normal through Monday with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100`s. Temperatures become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday before slowly increasing once again into mid/late week. Low temperatures remain above normal and conditions humid. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Current-Tonight...Another very warm afternoon across ECFL with max temps in the U80s to L90s and perhaps a few M90s. Peak heat indices will, again, top out in the M-U90s to low 100`s (locally). These hot and humid conditions will continue to produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. The sea breeze is delayed again Brevard County northward, but is expected to push a little further inland than the previous day. With existing deep moisture across the area, ISOLD-SCT showers/storms will develop first along/north of I-4 thru mid afternoon with coverage increasing up to numerous (55-65%) late afternoon into early/mid-evening and extending further south across our coverage warning area. The Storm Prediction Center keeps a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms across ECFL. Storm steering flow will shift activity back towards the coast. Primary storm threats remain frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty winds of 40-55 mph, hail to coin-size, and torrential downpours. A few storms may produce wind gusts to 60 mph locally. There is a less than 2% chance for a brief tornado. Convection will gradually diminish and move off the coast thru mid-late (south) evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Overnight lows will remain warm, providing little relief, with values generally in the 70s with conditions muggy. Winds becoming light/variable to calm. Mon-Mon Night...Plentiful moisture remains across the area and will promote a higher than normal (30-70%) diurnal shower/storm threat - highest southward and along the coast. The late day sea breeze collision will be across the eastern FL peninsula again. Periodic shortwave impulses embedded in the near zonal flow aloft will also aid the convective threat. The Storm Prediction Center has, again, outlined ALL of east central FL in a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms. Primary storm threats continue to be frequent lightning strikes, strong to damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), hail to coin-size, and torrential downpours. While a less than 2% chance of a brief tornado exists for most of ECFL, a 2-4% chance exists for a portion of Volusia County; near Daytona Beach northward. Heat impacts continue with max temps in the U80s to L90s (south) with peak heat indices still in the M90s to potentially L100s. Warm and humid conditions continue overnight, with lows in the 70s. These hot/humid conditions will continue to produce a Moderate to (isolated) Major HeatRisk (mostly inland from St. Lucie/Martin coasts). A weak front approaches and moves into the area Mon night. Shower and storm chances do gradually diminish thru late evening Mon, but we could see some shower activity and an isolated storm persist overnight in association with the boundary (& upper energy) as conditions remain unsettled. Tue-Sat...A weak front will lie across central FL around sunrise Tue morning, continuing to track slowly southward during the day ending up across south FL late. Fairly deep moisture remains behind the front and with cooler air aloft/plentiful energy in the mid-levels; we will see a high chance (65-70%) for showers and storms on Tue with convection in play during the morning as well as afternoon and evening. Winds turn NERLY pretty quickly behind the boundary and remain mostly onshore through the rest of the week and into next weekend. Chances for showers/storms Wed (40-70%, highest south of Orlando). An overall drying trend is forecast Thu-Sat as drier air filters southward down the peninsula, but we may still see a small 10-20% PoP threat at least on Thu. Temps return closer to seasonal values on Tue (in the 80s) behind the front, then continue to rise back above normal through mid/late week. The next weak front approaches late work-week, but it is unclear if it can penetrate as far south as central FL and if it does, will not have much fan-fare with it. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Current-Tonight...Light offshore flow (occasionally variable) will "back" onshore at the coast this afternoon with delayed sea breeze formation. A light S/SW flow will develop again tonight, post-convection. A few storms may develop near the coast early- mid afternoon in association with the sea breeze, with greater coverage and intensity late aftn/early evening. Some storms could be strong to marginally severe. The storm steering remains offshore so mariners will need to keep an eye to the sky & westward for developing/approaching inclimate weather. Storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty winds, hail to coin-size, and torrential downpours. An ISOLD waterspout cannot be ruled out. Seas generally 1-3 ft and both winds/seas locally higher invof storms. Mon-Thu...An increased shower/storm threat continues Mon-Wed of next week as moisture remains ample and boundary collisions across the eastern peninsula each day/evening allow for storms to push back to the coast. A weak front pushes into the local waters Mon night, slowly exiting southward during the day on Tue, but residual moisture remains. A few storms Mon will be locally strong to potentially severe with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Hail to coin-size and torrential downpours also possible. There will be variability in the wind component, but speeds generally AOB 15 kts. Light offshore winds Mon evening, quickly turn to NERLY behind the boundary late Mon overnight into Tue continuing mainly onshore thru the rest of the period, but may veer to offshore at night thru mid-week. Seas initially 1-3 ft build to 3-5 ft Tue, further to 6-7 ft offshore Tue night into Wed, slowly subsiding again later Wed into late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 SW to W winds around 10 knots, not as strong as yesterday so east coast sea breeze will develop a little earlier at coastal terminals this afternoon, ESE to SE at 12-15 knots with some higher gusts. SHRA/TSRA will track east across the FL peninsula as well as get sparked by inland moving east coast breeze. Boundary collisions should provide the best chance for strong storms including wind gusts 35+ knots and brief but significant CIG/VIS reductions. Convection will push back toward the east coast thru 01-02z in westerly steering flow and eventually dissipate. Amended DAB to bring the TEMPO forward based on radar trends and will add a VCTS for LEE. Will add TEMPOs to MCO/SFB roughly 21Z-23Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Deep moisture will remain across the area through early next week. A weak front will press southward across the area Monday overnight settling across south Florida by late Tuesday. Diurnal coverage of showers and lightning storms will be scattered to numerous through at least Tuesday, possibly Wednesday, and may provide some decent "wetting" rains for much of east central Florida. Some storms could be strong to marginally severe through at least Monday as this activity pushes back towards the coast and offshore. Storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty (erratic) winds, hail to coin-size, and torrential downpours. Daily sea breeze collisions will favor the eastern peninsula late today and again on Monday as coverage gradually becomes more uniformly consistent across east central Florida into next week. There remains a threat for potential new "fire-starts" from lightning strikes. Generally a light (5-10 mph) southwest to west wind component will "back" onshore along the coast this afternoon with sea breeze development. Winds may increase to 10-15 mph with sea breeze passage and some higher gusts. Warm and humid conditions continue into early next week, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and peak heat indices of 95-103 degrees. Dispersion values will be Generally Good this afternoon, perhaps Very Good toward the Kissimmee River, and Fair to Generally Good on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 88 71 83 / 20 60 30 60 MCO 74 90 73 86 / 20 50 20 70 MLB 77 89 75 85 / 40 60 40 70 VRB 77 90 74 86 / 50 60 50 70 LEE 73 90 72 86 / 10 20 30 70 SFB 73 90 71 86 / 10 50 20 70 ORL 74 90 73 86 / 20 50 20 70 FPR 77 90 74 86 / 40 60 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Kelly
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
| This Afternoon ![]() Partly Sunny |
Tonight![]() Mostly Cloudy |
Monday![]() Slight Chance Showers then Mostly Sunny |
Monday Night ![]() Chance Showers then Slight Chance T-storms |
Tuesday![]() Slight Chance T-storms then Showers |
| Hi 86 °F | Lo 83 °F | Hi 86 °F | Lo 81 °F | Hi 85 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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