Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

064
FXUS62 KMLB 301046
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Warm and mostly dry conditions close out the work week. A few
  showers and maybe a lightning storm could develop to the north
  in the afternoon and evening.

- Hot and windy Saturday ahead of an approaching front. High
  temperatures near records for the day in the low to mid 90s,
  including the coast. Frequent wind gusts 25 to 30 mph in the
  afternoon.

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase late Saturday into
  Sunday as a front slowly pushes through. There is potential for
  stronger storms and minor flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today-Friday...Warm and mostly dry. A stationary front remains
draped across the North Gulf Coast and North Florida through
Friday, before a low pressure system developing on the boundary
pushes the front south this weekend. Weak ridge axis of high
pressure over the Atlantic south of the front extending towards
South Florida today retreats farther offshore Friday. A few
showers and maybe a lightning storm in the higher moisture near
the front are possible in northern Lake and Volusia counties this
afternoon/evening, then chances dip south a bit towards the
Orlando Metro Friday afternoon/evening (chances 20-30%). Offshore
winds north of the ridge axis and subtle height rises aloft as an
upper level ridges slides across the Caribbean will continue the
warming trend, resulting in afternoon highs in the U80s-L90s,
lower along the coast as an east coast sea breeze fighting the
offshore flow makes it to around the I-95 corridor, providing a
little relief for the immediate coast. However, if the sea breeze
is slow to develop or can`t push inland, temperatures along the
coast could soar into the 90s. This heat will result in Minor to
Moderate HeatRisk impacts across East Central Florida, affecting
those who are sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling and
hydration. HREF continues to indicate 10-30% chance for morning
fog, but other guidance remains 10% or less, so mention remains
out of the official forecast for now. There is a Moderate risk of
dangerous rip currents at the Central Florida Atlantic beaches.
Always swim near a life-guard, and never swim alone.

Saturday-Sunday...Persistent mid-upper level troughing over the
eastern US amplifies as upper level energy rotates through the
pattern, digging the trough down into the Deep South, and
developing a surface low near the southeast seaboard along the
stalled front Saturday, which quickly ejects northeast while
deepening. The attendant cold front is dragged across the Florida
peninsula late Saturday into Sunday, but before that happens,
windy/gusty and hot conditions are expected Saturday. Southwest
winds ahead of the front increase in the afternoon to 15-20 mph
with frequent higher gusts to 25-30 mph, and a low chance (around
10%) for gusts over 35 mph. This strong offshore flow will prevent
the sea breeze from developing, pushing afternoon highs into the
L-M90s for the whole area, including the coast. These forecast
highs are 5-10 degrees above normal, near record for the Space and
Treasure Coasts, and result in Moderate HeatRisk impacts for most
of East Central Florida.

Rain and lightning storm chances increase late Saturday evening,
through the overnight, and into Sunday as the front slowly pushes
through central Florida. Moisture surges near the front (PWATs
1.8-2.0"), supporting scattered to numerous showers and embedded
lightning storms (chances 50-70%) Saturday night into Sunday. The
slow movement of the front, high moisture, and alignment with
southwesterly upper level flow (deep sheer 50-70 kt) presents a
risk of training/repeated bands of heavy rainfall which could lead
to minor flooding of low-lying and flood prone areas, and the
Weather Prediction Center has outlooked portions of East Central
Florida with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall
Sunday. There is potential for strong lightning storms given the
high moisture, modest instability (MUCAPE 500-1,000 J/kg), cool
mid- levels (T500 around -10C) and strong unidirectional shear,
capable of deadly cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and
small hail in addition to the heavy rainfall threat. Still some
uncertainty if the strong lightning storm threat materializes,
depending on timing of impulses of upper level energy, and the
shear not being too strong for the instability. Rain and storm
chances finally taper off Sunday evening/overnight.

Winds Sunday more moderate from the north, but could still be
gusty. Rain, cloud cover, and some cooler air brings Sunday
afternoon highs below normal to the M70s-L80s. Overnight lows dip
down to the U50s-L60s, except the southern coastal counties that
stay in the M60s-70.

Monday-Wednesday...Elongated high pressure extending from the
southeast into the western Atlantic, wedged between the stalled
front over South Florida to the Straits of Florida, and another
front working across the eastern CONUS, slides eastward in
response to the deepening low pressure system associated with the
front to the north. Residual moisture from the stalled front
lingering over the Florida peninsula keeps low afternoon rain and
lightning storm chances (10-30%) in the forecast, starting across
the southernmost counties Monday then expanding northward Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temperatures more seasonal Monday with afternoon
highs in the U70s-L80s, then quickly warming back up to the L-U80s
Tuesday and U80s-L90s Wednesday. Onshore (easterly to
southeasterly) winds become gusty in the afternoons behind the sea
breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today-Friday...Generally favorable boating conditions. A
stationary front to the north remains draped across the North Gulf
Coast and North Florida, with the ridge axis of high pressure
over the Atlantic south of the front extending to South Florida
today, then retreating farther offshore Friday. Offshore winds
5-15 kts shift to the southeast from the afternoon through the
early overnight with the sea breeze circulation. Winds could push
to 15-20 kts south of the Cape Friday night. Seas 2-4 ft. Isolated
showers and lightning storms (chances around 20%) in the
afternoons/evenings in the north Volusia waters, otherwise dry
conditions forecast.

Saturday-Monday...Boating conditions deteriorate as a front
approaches Saturday then slowly pushes through Florida and the
local Atlantic waters late Saturday through Sunday. Southwest to
south winds 5-15 kts Saturday morning increase to 15-20 kts,
possibly over 20 kts in the afternoon ahead of the front, veering
to the north Saturday night and Sunday as the front pushes
through, then to the north to northeast Sunday night as the front
drops south of the local area, stalling over South Florida by
Monday. Winds 10-20 kts continue to veer and slowly diminish
through Monday, becoming easterly 5-15 kts Monday night. Seas
remain generally 2-4 ft through Saturday, then build to 4-6 ft, up
to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday. Scattered to
numerous showers and lightning storms (chances up to 70%) will
accompany the frontal passage late Saturday into Sunday,
decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to scattered showers and
storms (chances 20-30%) remaining possible south of the Cape
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at terminals through the TAF period. Isold
SHRA/TSRA are forecast by several CAMs to brush DAB during the
mid afternoon to early evening (roughly 20Z-00Z). Importantly,
this convection is forecast to remain north of MCO. Maintained
VCSH for KDAB where rain chances are highest (20-30%). Dry
elsewhere.

Winds pick up out of the W/SW around 8-10 knots after sunrise.
East coast sea breeze will be delayed but develop SUA-MLB between
19Z-21Z with winds becoming SE 10-12 knots with some higher
gusts. DAB may see a combination of sea breeze and outflow from
convection offshore late in the day/early this evening. briefly
see a wind shift with the sea breeze late but this is not depicted
in their TAF at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today-Friday...Sensitive fire weather conditions due to low
humidity. Winds forecast to remain below 15 mph. Min RHs across
the interior today 35-45%, lowest in Osceola, Okeechobee, and Lake
counties, and 45-55% along the coastal corridor. RHs are
currently forecast to improve a bit Friday, especially along the
coast, but can`t rule out similar values as today`s. West-
southwest winds around 5 mph in the morning increase to around 10
mph in the afternoon. Winds a bit lighter Friday, increasing to
5-10 mph in the afternoon. The sea breeze will be pinned near the
coast due to the offshore winds, but could make a brief inland
push from Titusville south in the late afternoon/evening, shifting
winds along parts of the I-95 corridor southeast. A few showers
and maybe a lightning storm in the higher moisture near a stalled
front to the north are possible in northern Lake and Volusia
counties this afternoon/evening, then chances dip south a bit
towards the Orlando Metro Friday afternoon/evening (chances
20-30%). Afternoon dispersion values will be Very Good to
Excellent due to deep mixing heights and transport winds up to 20
mph. High temperatures in the U80-L90s with similar peak heat heat
indices.

Saturday-Sunday...A cold front will bring the next chance for
wetting rain across much of the area late Saturday through Sunday.
Ahead of the front on Saturday, west-southwest flow increases to
15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph), which will
increase control concerns. Lightning strikes late this weekend
will be an additional concern for new fire starts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site   Apr 29     Apr 30     May 1      May 2
DAB    94 (1968)  92 (1953)  94 (2002)  95 (1953)
LEE    94 (2017)  95 (1991)  94 (2017)  95 (1990)
SFB    93 (2017)  93 (1971)  95 (2017)  94 (2010)
MCO    96 (1906)  95 (1971)  96 (1917)  97 (1906)
MLB    91 (1986)  93 (1964)  94 (2002)  95 (2002)
VRB    94 (1986)  91 (1975)  96 (1971)  94 (2002)
FPR    92 (1923)  97 (1971)  93 (2002)  95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  67  86  68 /  20  10  20   0
MCO  91  69  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  89  68  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  90  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  89  69  90  68 /  10  10  20   0
SFB  91  68  90  69 /  10  10  20   0
ORL  90  70  91  70 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  90  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion