Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

138
FXUS62 KMLB 122304
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
604 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Mostly dry conditions continue through Saturday, with rain and
  lightning storm chances returning Sunday mainly across the
  Treasure Coast as a warm front lifts northward across the area.

- Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures into this weekend
  before turning noticeably cooler on Monday behind the next cold
  front that will push through Sunday evening/night.

- Breezy to windy conditions developing Sunday night through Monday
  as north to northeast winds increase across the area. These
  winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions
  early next week, with beach erosion possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday... Upper level low pressure system across
Maine and New Brunswick area today will continue to shift northeast
Saturday as a new low pressure system develops by the Great Plains
and moves into the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Surface high
pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will build
southeast across the Deep South through the period as high pressure
across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula.
Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain
chances through the period. Dry air will continue to filter across
the area through Saturday, with forecast PW values around 0.5"
today, increasing to 0.7-1.0" on Saturday. Light and variable winds
today will become northeast to east by Saturday morning before
veering east to southeast Saturday afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph
once again.

Guidance is hinting at patchy fog developing late tonight into early
Saturday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly
from Orlando south to Lake Okeechobee (staying west of I-95).
Confidence is not high this will occur. However, given the light
winds and the high pressure building overhead as well as the HREF
continuing to show it, have maintained patchy fog in those area in
the forecast. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down
and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly
above normal for this time of year tonight and Saturday. Afternoon
highs will be in the low to mid 70s across the area today before
warming to the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will
range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across
the far south tonight, warming low to mid 50s across the far north
to mid 60s across the far south on Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great
Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before
deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the
surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will
shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis
building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across
South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday.
This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return
of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30
percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on
Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly
across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county.

The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday
evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage,
with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday.
However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of
the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula,
tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of
windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into
Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will
increase to 10- 15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday
night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will
likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds
will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion
during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A
High Surf advisory may be needed.

Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming
noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will
be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to
mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south
on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far
north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range
from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far
south on Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South
will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting
eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The
trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the
time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning
easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep
South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening
and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly
dry conditions are forecast through the period, with no mentionable
rain chances over land areas. However, there remains a low (20-30
percent) chance of showers across the Atlantic waters each day.
Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going
from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s
on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on
Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Today-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across
the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today
and Saturday. Light and variable winds will turn more easterly this
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland.
Winds then shift east to southeast on Saturday with speeds around 10
KT, becoming northwest and increasing to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas
will be 2-4ft today, decreasing to 1-3ft on Saturday before
increasing to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through
Saturday, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms on Sunday.

Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as
strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The
tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20-
30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build
6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds
decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and veer E/NE Tuesday at 10-15 KT.
Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday
with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Light/VRB winds tonight with VFR conditions forecast. There is
some (low) potential for patchy fog development, but with very
dry air just above the surface (lessening confidence) we decided
to leave mention out of the TAFs and will AMD as needed. Light
winds turn easterly on Saturday afternoon, up to around 10 KT at
the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  75  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  54  77  59  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  57  76  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  56  78  61  78 /   0   0  30  30
LEE  50  76  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  51  77  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  76  59  77 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  56  78  61  78 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion