








National Weather Service Forecast for: Orlando, Florida Forecast Details
397 FXUS62 KMLB 261143 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 643 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 - Some patchy fog that may become locally dense this morning, then a very warm afternoon for late November ahead of an approaching cold front. - A few showers and maybe a lightning storm are possible today and tonight ahead of the front, then a pleasantly cool and quiet Thanksgiving Day is expected. - Very chilly Thursday night into Friday morning as temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s combined with breezy overnight winds produce wind chills in 30s and 40s across parts of East Central Florida. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Today-Tonight...Very warm for late November. The ridge axis from surface high pressure over the western Atlantic reaching tenuously to Florida ahead of an approaching cold front will produce light southwesterly to westerly winds, while ridging aloft over the Caribbean extending over Florida shifts east. Conditions remain somewhat favorable for patchy fog that could become locally dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile early this morning, though most will just see ground fog. Any fog that develops will clear within an hour or two of sunrise. The offshore winds and ridge aloft will bring us a very warm afternoon, as high temperatures increase to the M80s for pretty much all but the barrier islands (L80s), 5-8 degrees above normal and within 2-3 degrees of today`s high temperature records in a few spot. A modest moisture surge through the day and night ahead of the front will be counteracted by very dry air above 800mb, keeping rain and thunderstorm chances limited to a low (20-30%) chance across the southern counties most of the day, and a very low (10% or less) chance across the rest the area this afternoon. Overnight rain chances as the front arrives are tricky, but despite the increased moisture (PWATs picking up to 1.3-1.7"), instability is lacking with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg everywhere but the southern coastal counties, and even there generally less than 1,000 J/kg with MLCAPE 500 J/kg or less. Overall the environment only looks to support a very low to low (10-20%) chance of showers overnight, highest across the southern coastal counties. Thanksgiving Day...Other than some low clouds, which could produce reduced visibility in the morning if they lower enough, a pleasant if maybe slightly cool holiday is expected. The front is forecast to have pushed through most of Central Florida by sunrise and departed to the south by the late morning, ushering any early morning showers and storms south or offshore. Starting the early morning with temperatures ranging from the U50s well north of I-4 to the M-U60s down south, only increasing to the U60-L70s along and north of I-4, but still making it to the U70s-L80s down south (at least cooler than Wednesday). Northerly winds behind the front will become gusty to breezy, increasing to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast, with gusts up to 20 mph. Very dry air beginning to filter in from the north and the gusty/breezy winds will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions across parts of the northern counties. Thursday Night-Friday...Very chilly. Northerly winds will gradually increase through the night to 10-15 mph inland and around 15 mph along the coast with gusts to 25 mph as high pressure builds into the Deep South, providing effective cold air convection (though mixing will offset radiative cooling). Temperatures will crash after peak daytime heating Thursday, reaching the L50s across most of the area by midnight, and bottoming out in the L-M40s north of I-4, the M-U40s across much of the rest of the interior, and somewhere in U40s-50s across the southern coastal counties. Winds will push apparent temperatures down into the M-U30s north of I-4, U30s-L40s across much of the rest of the interior, and somewhere in the L40-U50s across the southern coastal counties. Conditions will not be favorable for frost due to the overnight winds. Afternoon highs Friday only increase into the 60s, maybe low 70s for the Treasure Coast, as the pressure gradient remains tight between high pressure settling over the Southeast and the front stalling near to north of the Caribbean, continuing breezy/gusty conditions. Very dry, enough to finally confidently say zero rain chances again, though the low humidity and winds will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions expanding to most of the interior. Still chilly Friday night into Saturday morning, but a couple degrees "warmer" than the previous night, with lows ranging from the M40-L60s and min apparent temperatures the L40s-L60s. Saturday-Tuesday...Model agreement through the extended has improved with the 00Z guidance. A modest trough swinging through the northern CONUS will support a developing surface low as it tracks east-northeast from the Central Plains near to south of the Great Lakes, and across the southeast Canadian provinces, ushering high pressure over the eastern seaboard offshore. At this juncture the trough is not strong enough to push the cold front associated with the departing low pressure system into Florida, causing it to stall north of the area. A second, deeper trough swinging all the way down to the southern US early next week could develop another low pressure system over the southeast along the stalled frontal boundary, bringing us another cold front mid next week. Still some uncertainty in the details, but generally speaking easterly to southeasterly winds through much if not all the period will support gradual warming through the weekend and early next week, and some low to moderate rain chances the first half of next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions. The ridge from surface high pressure over the western Atlantic tenuously extends to Florida ahead of an approaching cold front, producing SW-S winds 5-10 kts, backing to the SSW-SE across most of the waters and the southern coast in the evening with a weak sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft. There is a low (20-30%) chance for showers and a lightning storm across the southern coast and Atlantic waters, and a very low (10% or less) chance across the rest the area this afternoon. Thursday-Friday...Boating conditions deteriorate Thursday as a strong but mostly dry cold front pushing through Florida and the local Atlantic waters, becoming poor in the afternoon as northerly winds behind the front increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to 4-6 ft (highest in the Gulf Stream), then worsening overnight as winds further increase to 20-25 kts and seas build to 5-7 ft early Friday morning. Later in the day Friday winds settle to 15-20 kts as they begin to veer easterly and seas begin to subside, down to 4-6 ft nearshore, but seas up to 8 ft at times will linger in the Gulf Stream through Friday night. There are low to moderate (20-40%) chances for showers and low (around 20%) chances for lighting storms across most of the Atlantic waters and the southern coast Thursday prior to and with the frontal passage, then dry conditions as high pressure builds into the Southeast behind the front. Saturday-Sunday...Boating conditions remain poor Saturday as a tight pressure gradient across Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters between high pressure over the Southeast and the front to the south produces easterly winds 15-20 kts and seas 4-6 ft. The pressure gradient loosens Sunday as the high slides offshore, easing E-SE winds to 10-15 kts. Seas settle to generally 3-5 ft, but up to 6ft could continue in the Gulf Stream. Dry conditions continue Saturday, then rain chances return Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Patchy ground fog is forecast to quickly diminish with sunrise. Cloud cover increases (remaining VFR) as a cold front approaches from the north-northwest. Southwest winds are forecast 10 kts or less today ahead of the front. Winds then shift out of the north into early Thursday as the front passes the area. Most terminals remain dry, although a few showers cannot be ruled out near SUA after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A strong but mostly dry cold front will push through Central Florida Thursday, followed high pressure and very dry air Friday, bringing sensitive fire weather conditions. Northerly winds behind the front Thursday increase to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to 20 mph, then further increase overnight reaching 10-15 mph inland and around 15 mph along the coast with gusts to 25 mph by Friday morning. Min RHs Thursday forecast to drop below 40% along and north of I-4, and possibly below 30% well north, further decreasing Friday to less than 40% across much of the interior, and less than 30% in Lake and portions of adjacent counties. Winds currently forecast to remain below 15 mph where RHs are lowest. Afternoon smoke dispersion Thursday is forecast to be mostly Poor to Fair due to generally low mixing heights and weak transport winds, becoming Generally Good Friday. There are low to moderate (20-40%) chances for showers and low (around 20%) chances for lighting storms across the southern counties Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds shift onshore by the weekend, increasing moisture and improving fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 61 70 45 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 84 64 73 47 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 83 65 75 50 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 83 65 77 54 / 10 20 20 0 LEE 83 61 70 42 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 84 62 71 44 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 84 64 72 46 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 84 65 78 54 / 20 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Law
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida
Today![]() Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms |
Tonight![]() Slight Chance T-storms then Chance Showers |
Thanksgiving Day ![]() Chance Showers |
Thursday Night ![]() Chance Showers and Breezy |
Friday![]() Partly Sunny and Breezy |
| Hi 82 °F | Lo 74 °F | Hi 82 °F | Lo 66 °F | Hi 75 °F |
National Weather Service Forecast for: Miami, Florida Forecast Details
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