Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

748
FXUS62 KMLB 151942
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Warming trend will bring near record highs in the low 90s across
  the interior Friday and into the weekend.

- Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of
  showers returns early next week as a weak front pushes through
  late Sunday into early Monday.

- A period of windy onshore flow Monday into Tuesday behind the
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Thu-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through
Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward
across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will
gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis.
Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting
in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions.
Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep
warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will
remain closer to normal near 80/low 80s at the coast Thursday,
and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As
temperatures continue to climb late week and into the weekend,
max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the mid
80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the
interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record
values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily
records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see
record highs below).

Mon-Wed...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early
Monday, bringing a small chance of showers and a noticeable cool
down. Equally as noticeable will be the strong/gusty onshore (NE)
winds that develop behind the front. Sustained 20-25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are forecast to overspread the area from north to
south late Sun night and Mon, gradually decreasing Tue. Moisture
return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty
meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both
depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for
showers at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and
southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating
destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary.
Temperatures drop back to more seasonal norms behind the front
with even slightly below normal high temps on Tue. Then warming
back up fairly quickly beginning Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge
axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic currently north
of the area gradually drops south into Central Florida and the
local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high retreats south and east
over the weekend ahead of an approaching cool front which is
forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Wind flow
gradually veers more southeast and weakens the next couple days
as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light synoptic/
background SSW-WSW flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift
onshore (SE-ESE) each afternoon/eve associated with the diurnal
sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds behind the sea breeze will be
8-12 knots. Seas 3-4 FT tonight/Thursday and 2-3 FT Friday through
the weekend.

Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night behind the front with
Small Craft Advisories likely for NE winds 20-25 knots spreading
across the waters and seas rapidly building 7-9 FT early Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

High pressure continues over the Florida peninsula through the TAF
period. Earlier BKN035-040 continue to lift through the afternoon.
VFR conditions prevailing, though will be watching the possibility
of patchy fog at terminals along and north of I-4
(MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE/DAB). At this time, confidence in timing or
location of any fog is too low to include in the TAF.

Otherwise, onshore flow continues. Breezy E winds along the coast
early this afternoon diminish into this evening. Wind gusts up
to 20 kts possible along the Treasure Coast over the next few
hours. Then, lighter winds overnight, becoming more SE. E winds
return around 8-12 kts Thursday morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Deep layer high pressure - at the surface and aloft - will maintain
dry conditions along with a warming trend into the weekend.
Prevailing daytime winds will be east to southeast as the low level
ridge axis settles across Central Florida by Friday. Wind speeds
will be 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph coast. Nighttime winds will
become light and variable. No min RH concerns along the coast but
inland min RHs will fall to 30-35% Thu from Orlando north and west,
expanding to include more of the interior on Friday. Given the
relatively light winds, Red Flag conditions are not forecast.
Afternoon dispersion values Fair to Generally Good Thursday and
Friday, but pockets of Poor dispersion may exist over portions of
Lake county.  Warming trend will bring above normal highs into the
lower 90s interior Friday through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th):

                April 17th     April 18th    April 19th
Daytona Beach    89 2022        92 1967       92 1968
Leesburg         92 1991        90 1990       92 2020
Sanford          92 1967        94 1967       94 2020
Orlando          95 1922        93 1922       94 1922
Melbourne        90 2006        91 2015       93 2015
Vero Beach       91 2021        92 2015       93 1969
Fort Pierce      93 1919        94 2015       92 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  82  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  80  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  60  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  59  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  61  86  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  81  63  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion