Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

180
FXUS62 KMLB 211820
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Dry conditions persist through Monday before rain chances
  increase as a frontal boundary approaches the Florida peninsula
  Tuesday and Wednesday, with conditions drying out once again
  late next week.

- Poor to hazardous beach conditions are forecast this weekend
  due to a high risk of rip currents. Residents and those visiting
  on spring break are strongly encouraged to avoid entering the
  water!

- Afternoon highs will generally remain above normal values
  through the forecast period.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will be present across east
  central Florida through Monday due to critical RH values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Current-Monday...An area of high pressure will remain situated
across east central Florida this weekend and into Monday, with the
center of the high gradually extending eastward across Florida
and the local Atlantic waters. Dry air associated with the high
has settled across the area, with current GOES Total PWAT imagery
estimating values between 0.4" and 0.6". These lower PWAT values
are anticipated to persist, resulting in near-zero rain chances
through Monday. The lack of moisture will also result in minimal
cloud coverage, allowing for sufficient daytime heating and a
gradual warming trend over the next few days. Temperatures remain
on track this afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, with
highs Sunday and Monday forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s
areawide. While values will likely remain below record
temperatures, it is worth noting that we will be approximately 5
to 7 degrees above normal. Overnight temperatures are forecast to
remain in the 50s the next few nights, which remains right around
normal for this time of year. Looking into the overnight forecast,
some models continue to suggest a chance for fog development late
tonight into early Sunday, particularly across the interior.
While there are several models suggesting minimal to no fog, still
decided to keep a mention of at least patchy fog in the forecast.
Visibility reductions of one mile or less may be possible, and
those out on the roads are encouraged to remain vigilant and
practice road safety if reduced visibilities are encountered. Slow
down, leave plenty of following distance between vehicles, and
use only low beam headlights. Any fog that does develop will
diminish after sunrise.

Spring break is in full swing and visitors (and residents, too!)
to the east central Florida beaches should be aware that even
though the weather will be perfect for the beach, lingering swells
will lead to a high risk of rip currents through at least Sunday.
Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Tuesday-Saturday...The high gets pushed southward on Tuesday as a
weak frontal boundary approaches Florida, stalling across the
area into Wednesday. A plume of moisture along and ahead of the
front will make its way towards the peninsula, resulting in an
increase in rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday, the rain
chances are highest from Osceola to Brevard and areas northward
(20-50%), and there is a low chance (20%) for some storm
development with this activity. Confidence in storm development
remains low, but increasing instability ahead of the boundary and
cold temperatures aloft may be just enough to foster a favorable
environment. Wednesday, rain chances areawide are forecast to
remain between 20- 30%, with onshore flow aiding in shower and
storm development. While rain chances do reenter the forecast,
unfortunately rainfall totals will do little to help relative to
the drought across east central Florida. Totals are forecast to
remain less than 0.5", with most areas likely seeing 0.1" to 0.25"
of rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s,
though some spots along the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts
may only reach the upper 70s on Wednesday. Lows warm into the low
60s.

The stalled boundary washes out late next week, with another area
of high pressure anticipated to gradually build across the
peninsula once again. Dry conditions return to the forecast with a
less than 10% chance of rain from Thursday onward. Mostly clear
skies are also anticipated to return to east central Florida, with
temperatures creeping back up into the mid to upper 80s areawide.
The warmest temperatures appear to occur on Friday, with a number
of places across the interior just a degree or two away from 90.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Poor boating conditions will continue across the Gulf Stream
waters tonight due to lingering 6 foot seas. Boating conditions
are then anticipated to improve by tomorrow morning, with seas of
2 to 5 feet continuing through Monday. High pressure overhead will
help keep conditions dry and winds light out of the southwest at
5 to 15 knots. By Tuesday, boating conditions begin to deteriorate
as a frontal boundary approaches the waters from the north,
causing winds to become more northeasterly at 15 to 25 knots. Seas
respond by rapidly building to 5 to 10 feet, with the highest
wave heights forecast across the offshore waters. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Rain chances also return to the
forecast across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday (20-50%),
continuing into Wednesday (30-50%). There is also a low chance
(20-30%) of storm development with this activity. The front
diminishes across the area late Wednesday into Thursday, with
boating conditions anticipated to improve on Wednesday night. Dry
weather and generally favorable boating conditions prevail late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

There are low probabilities (20-30%) for fog north and west of
I-4 early Sunday morning, and have included a TEMPO (09Z/13Z) at
LEE for MVFR VIS. Otherwise, have maintained VFR conditions at
the local terminals. Light west-northwest flow becomes variable
at times. A weak sea breeze is developing from MLB southward,
shifting winds out of the northeast at southern coastal terminals
this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

High pressure has settled across the Florida peninsula and
brought a dry air mass with it. This set-up will persist through
at least Monday, resulting in sensitive fire weather conditions
across the area. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall below 35%
nearly areawide each afternoon and even below 30% across some
portions of the interior. While winds are anticipated to remain
below critical thresholds, there will still be a slight breeze
around 10 mph at times, especially in the afternoons. Wildfire
prevention steps should be taken seriously over the next several
days, including properly discarding cigarettes, avoiding outdoor
burning, and avoiding parking vehicles on dry grass. Moisture is
forecast to increase Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of a
weak frontal boundary, with a return of dry conditions anticipated
late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  54  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  53  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  54  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  55  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  56  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  51  82  53  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion