Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

698
FXUS62 KMLB 181846
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
146 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will exist across portions
  of the coastal waters into tonight and Friday morning.

- Rain chances increase slightly into tonight (up to 20-40 percent),
  with isolated lightning storms also possible, mainly over the
  coastal waters.

- Highs will be above normal through Friday, in the upper 70s to
  low 80s for much of the region, then turning cooler behind a
  cold front Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Current-Tonight...Scattered (gusty) showers moving northward
early this afternoon, with steering flow expected to veer thru the
afternoon and evening (SW --> NE). An increase in moisture ahead
of an approaching weak cold front will promote a 20-40pct chance
of offshore-moving showers thru tonight. PWAT values will surge to
1.45-1.65" across ECFL late today into tonight. Isolated
lightning storms are possible, though instability remains marginal
at best and expect greatest chances to remain over the coastal
waters. Primary storm impacts include lightning strikes, gusty
winds locally, and brief downpours. Cell movement should be SW to
NE at 25-35 mph. Showery precip diminishes thru late evening and
overnight. A weakening mid-level trough will push a weak cold
front into the FL Panhandle tonight nudging high pressure across
the western Atlc further seaward. The pressure gradient will be a
little tighter this afternoon with SERLY winds increasing to 10-15
mph over the interior and 15-20 mph (at times) along the coast
with higher gusts. Winds decrease this evening while continuing
to veer S/SW.

After highs in the U70s to L80s this afternoon, expect a mild night
out ahead of the approaching front with mins generally in the 60s
areawide and conditions humid. Forecast models are suggesting
some low stratus and fog towards morning, but with 925 mb winds at
20-25 kts, tend to be more comfortable with low clouds vs fog,
though will not be surprised by some patchy fog in spots.

Fri-Sun...The front will approach the area Fri morning, moving thru
ECFL during the day and evening (north --> south). Suspect there
will be some low stratus clouds around during the morning in
association with the front before improvement in skies during the
afternoon. Passage of the front will be mainly dry, except some
lingering showers - perhaps an ISOLD storm over the local coastal
waters. Winds continue to veer WRLY/NWRLY with approach/passage of
the boundary as speeds average 10-15 mph. Speeds decrease to 5-10
mph Fri night. High pressure builds into the region behind the
front while on a weakening trend into the weekend, but ridging
will be reinforced across the Appalachians/mid Atlc states by
late Sun/Sun night. Light northerly early morning winds on Sat
veer onshore during the day continuing NNE/NE thru the weekend.

Highs Fri remaining above normal in the U70s with some L80s south
from Orlando. Only slightly cooler into Sat/Sun and still above
climo with M70s coastal Volusia and U70s and a few L80s southward.
The coldest night will be Fri overnight with U40s to around 50F
north/west of I-4 and L-M50s for much of the rest of the interior,
except U50s to L60s along the coast - M-U60s possible for coastal
St. Lucie/Martin counties. Generally 50s and L60s for Sat/Sun
overnight periods. Conditions mainly dry - though could see some
light (ISOLD) shower activity develop over the coastal waters for
Sun/Sun night.

Mon-Wed...Previous Modified...A strong area of high pressure builds
toward the Mid-Atlantic region and further into the southeast U.S.
into mid-week, with a weak "backdoor" front moving in from the north-
northeast and pushing south-southwest across the area. This will
lead to a breezy E/NE flow developing, transporting isolated to
scattered showers over the waters onshore. For now continue PoPs
around 20 percent along the coast for Mon. Pressure gradient looks
to then gradually relax through mid-week, with high pressure just
north of the area, maintaining onshore winds and mostly dry
conditions Tue/Wed. Temperatures remain near to above normal, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the M50s to L60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Afternoon-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions present
across the local waters - mainly offshore/Gulf Stream. SERLY winds
15-20 kts with seas building to 4-6 ft and a little higher over
the Gulf Stream. Winds continue to veer S/SW tonight with speeds
increasing to 20 kts offshore Volusia/Brevard and seas building
to 5-7 ft here where a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect now
at 21Z/4PM thru the overnight and into Fri morning. Cautionary
Statements will continue for Treasure Coast offshore waters and
may have to drag back to near shore Treasure Coast waters for a
while this evening as seas/winds here remain elevated. Scattered,
gusty showers, continue with ISOLD lightning storms possible late
today and tonight well out ahead of an approaching weak cold
front. Cell movement will veer to become offshore-moving later
this afternoon and tonight.

Fri-Fri night...A cold front approaches the northern waters by late
morning continuing to press southward during the day/early evening
(south). ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers/ISOLD lightning storms will continue
during the morning and early afternoon - primarily offshore. Poor
to hazardous boating conditions continue during the period for
offshore marine zones. WRLY winds will slowly decrease into the
afternoon and Fri night as the front passes and winds continue to
veer to NW. Seas 5-6 ft may linger (well) offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet thru Fri aftn-night. Seas 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Sat-Mon...Previous Modified...Boating conditions improve into the
weekend, as winds veer onshore Sat and then become N/NE into Sun.
Wind speeds drop to 5-10 kts, with seas falling to 3-5 ft Sat and 2-
4 ft through the daytime Sun. It will be mostly dry through the
weekend, but isolated showers will be possible at times Sun into Mon.

Another front is forecast to push through the waters from the
northeast to southwest into early next week, with a strong area of
high pressure moving in toward the Mid-Atlantic states. This will
increase winds out of the E/NE by early Mon, with seas quickly
building, leading to another round of poor to hazardous boating
conditions. Trends from latest model run are for stronger winds
Sun overnight and Mon with seas building higher as well!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Scattered SHRA lifting N/NW across the area in breezy/gusty SE
flow with a few cloud layers. Conds have become mostly VFR but
SHRA will produce brief MVFR conds as well as gust up to 30 knots
possible in the more robust shallow convection. Flow veers S to SW
overnight and model guidance is pinging on stratus across the
northern terminals. Have inserted TEMPO for IFR stratus at
LEE/SFB/DAB late tonight/early Fri where NBM probs are near 40%
for IFR conds. At MCO, NBM probabilities are 40-50% for MVFR and
around 30% for IFR. So inserted a TEMPO MVFR conds there around
sunrise. May eventually need to lower the CIGs at MCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  78  52  73 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  68  80  54  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  66  81  59  76 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  66  82  61  78 /  20  10   0   0
LEE  65  78  48  74 /  30   0   0   0
SFB  66  80  51  75 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  67  79  53  75 /  20  10   0   0
FPR  66  83  60  78 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion