Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

234
FXUS62 KMLB 111720
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1220 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Boating conditions will rapidly become hazardous behind a
  passing cold front this afternoon. Don`t be fooled by favorable
  morning conditions.

- Turning noticeably cooler tonight and Monday; Windy along the
  coast tonight.

- Rain chances increase midweek followed by sharply colder
  temperatures late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Patchy dense fog will continue to be possible
through early this morning. However, higher clouds streaming across
the area, and increasing boundary layer winds across northern
portions of east central Florida should help limit coverage. Any fog
should lift by mid-morning. A cold front will approach central
Florida and move through the region this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered light showers are forecast to develop along and ahead of
this boundary, with a 20-30% chance for showers into the late
morning and afternoon, mainly north of Okeechobee County and the
Treasure Coast. Model guidance has this activity diminishing as it
pushes farther south of Orlando.

While winds will start off out of the west around 5-10 mph this
morning, winds will quickly pick up behind the front out of the
N/NW this afternoon increasing to 15-20 mph along the coast and
10-15 mph across the interior. Gusts are forecast to reach up to
25-30 mph. Then into tonight, winds increase further along the
coast, becoming breezy to windy, especially along the barrier
islands. Northerly winds between 20-25 mph and gusts to around 30
mph are forecast. Some occasional gusts to 35 mph may occur along
the coast, but are not expected to be frequent enough for a Wind
Advisory. Across the interior, wind speeds will remain up to 10-15
mph with gusts at times to 20-25 mph. These rapidly increasing
northerly winds will also lead to a developing strong southward-
flowing longshore current at area beaches this afternoon into
tonight, and have issued a Beach Hazard Statement along the coast
for these conditions.

With the front pushing into northern central Florida earlier in the
afternoon and increasing cloud cover, highs near to north of Orlando
are only forecast to reach into the 70s. However, to the south, max
temps should again rise into the low 80s. Vero Beach and Fort Pierce
are forecast to be within a couple degrees of their record highs
today, so can`t rule out another tied or broken record at these
sites. Temperatures turn much cooler into tonight behind the front,
falling into the 40s near to northwest of I-4 and in the 50s across
much of the rest of the region.

Monday-Tuesday...Winds will veer onshore and gradually decrease into
early this week. After the much cooler start to Monday morning,
highs are forecast to be near to slightly below normal in the
afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 60s near to north of
Orlando and in the low to mid 70s to the south. Lows Tuesday morning
will be similar to the night prior, but with weaker winds. Afternoon
highs will then be slightly warmer and closer to normal values, in
the low to mid 70s for most locations, except upper 60s across much
of Lake and Volusia counties. It will be mostly dry early this week,
but the developing onshore flow should eventually lead to some
isolated showers developing over the coastal waters, and a few of
these may be able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Moisture and rain chances increase into midweek
well ahead of a strong cold front moving into the Southeast U.S. on
Wednesday and as it pushes through the area Thursday. PoPs increase
to 40-50% Wednesday, 50-60% Wednesday night and continue around 30-
50% on Thursday. While rainfall is welcome due to the much drier
than normal conditions of late, rainfall totals don`t look to be
enough to alleviate any of the ongoing abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions across east central FL. Current ECMWF ensemble
guidance only gives around around a 40-50% chance for totals greater
than 0.50 inches from Wednesday-Thursday. Dry conditions then
forecast behind the front Friday and Saturday.

Highs will be near to cooler than normal through midweek from
increasing cloud cover/rain chances and as strong cold front moves
through Thursday, ranging from mid 60s to low 70s for much of the
area on Wednesday and in the 60s Thursday. It will then turn much
colder than normal behind the front Thursday night, with lows in the
30s and freezing temperatures possible, mainly northwest of I-4.
Wind chill values early Friday morning are currently forecast to
drop as low as the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs on Friday then
forecast in the low to mid 60s for most locations. Turning chilly,
but likely not as cold into Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s and highs on Saturday rise into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Boating conditions will start off favorable this
morning, but boaters should be prepared for conditions rapidly
deteoriating and becoming hazardous this afternoon behind a
passing cold front. Winds will become northerly and quickly
increase to 20-25 knots behind the passing front through this
afternoon, with these speeds persisting into tonight. This will
build seas up to 6-9 feet into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory
goes into effect at 1 PM this afternoon across the nearshore
waters of Volusia and Brevard counties expanding southward to the
Treasure Coast waters late this afternoon.

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the passing
front across the waters today.

Monday-Thursday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist as
winds veer north-northeast and gradually decrease from 15-20
knots to 10-15 knots in the afternoon. Seas will linger up to 7-9
feet across the gulf stream waters Monday. Boating conditions then
gradually improve into Tuesday, with N/NE winds decreasing to
5-10 knots and seas falling to 3-5 feet. Boating conditions will
remain generally favorable through Wednesday and then a strong
cold front will move through the area Thursday, with W/NW winds
increasing and boating conditions deteriorating.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible into early this week
across the waters, with coverage of showers and the potential for
a few storms increasing into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

A cold front will move southward across the Florida peninsula this
afternoon, bringing reduced MVFR to IFR CIGs to the interior
terminals and DAB. Added TEMPOs in at TIX and MLB for MVFR CIGs
after 19Z. Isolated showers possible along and just ahead of the
front, so maintained VCSH at the interior sites and from DAB to
MLB, with activity anticipated to clear by 00Z. Lower confidence
in shower activity from VRB southward, so left VCSH out of the
forecast. Westerly winds veer to out of the north-northwest behind
the front, with wind speeds increasing to 10 to 15 knots and
gusts to 25 knots possible this afternoon into the overnight
hours at all terminals. Winds remain out of the north-northeast
late tonight into early Monday morning, with winds subsiding to
around 10 knots areawide. Dry conditions anticipated on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  65  53  68 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  52  69  54  71 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  56  70  58  73 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  59  71  58  74 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  45  65  49  68 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  49  67  52  70 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  51  67  53  71 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  72  58  74 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion