Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

281
FXUS62 KMLB 201745
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
145 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

- Continued High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf
  is strongly discouraged!

- Temperatures see little change into early next week, but
  increasing humidity into the weekend will produce heat index
  values near or above 100 degrees and a Moderate to Major
  HeatRisk.

- Isolated coastal showers continue. However, most convection will
  be focused over the interior, moving towards the west coast
  into the evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Today-Tonight...A rinse and repeat forecast today, as a ridge
remains placed northeast of the local area. The only difference
today looks to be a very minor reduction in east to southeast
flow. However, winds are still expected to increase to around
10-15 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts to near 20 mph,
especially along the coast. Winds then become light overnight, a
reduction from the previous few days. High temperatures continue
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s, but
near 80 along the coast.

With little change to the overall pattern, have maintained a low
chance (15%) for onshore- moving showers through tonight across
coastal areas, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve these
features. A slight reduction in the east coast sea breeze is
expected to allow for a more interior collision over the
peninsula, though it still favors areas well west of Orlando.
Outside of light coastal showers, the sea breeze will be the focus
of convection this afternoon, with PoPs 20-40%. Drier air in the
mid-levels leading to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures
near -10 C could once again support a strong storm or two, with
gusty winds near 50 mph and small hail, as well as lightning
strikes. Any showers and storms that develop will drift westerly,
inland from the coast.

Thursday-Wednesday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US
seaboard through the forecast period, though it is expected to
drift southward towards Florida into mid-week next week and
strengthen. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level low north of the
Bahamas drifts eastward late this week, with upper level ridging
subsequently developing over the peninsula. Locally, little change
remains expected to the weather pattern over the next seven days.
East to southeast flow prevails on the southern periphery of the
ridge. Winds increase each afternoon to 10-15 mph, with gusts
20-25 mph, behind the sea breeze as it moves inland. The strongest
gusts are expected along the coast.

The daily sea breeze collision will continue to favor the far
interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that`s
where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into
the evening hours (PoPs 20-50%). A slight increase in moisture
this weekend looks to have little effect on PoPs, as ridging
develops aloft. Regardless, isolated coastal showers embedded
within onshore flow are expected to persist through much of the
period, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.
However, most areas will likely remain dry overall. Lingering
drier air in the mid- levels could support a few strong wind gusts
in any more developed storms through Friday, before increasing
moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into
the weekend.

E/SE flow holds high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
each day. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices,
which rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and
little relief overnight due to temperatures remaining in the 70s
(and near 80 along the coast) will lead to increasing coverage of
Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for
several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution
during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying
hydrated and taking breaks in an air- conditioned space. A High
Risk or high- end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to
continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore
flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to
southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15
kts, with gusts near 20 kts along the coast behind the sea
breeze. Shallow, low-level moisture will support at least
isolated showers through the weekend. However, a majority of
convection will develop over land areas along the sea breeze and
drift farther westward. Seas 2-4 ft prevail into the weekend,
though occasionally reach up to 5 ft well offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR outside of convection. CAMs continue to show TSRA developing
INVOF KMCO and other Orlando terminals between 20Z-23Z before
pushing westward, but still not confident enough in direct
impacts for TEMPOs with the package. Sea breeze collision forecast
west of KLEE and ECFL terminals after 23Z. Along the coast,
onshore moving -SHRA have diminished, but could return in the
overnight hours. Winds ESE 7-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts,
especially along the Treasure Coast, become light/VRB overnight,
shifting to the SE at 5-10 kts Thursday. Lighter more SErly winds
will favor a Thursday afternoon sea breeze collision and TSRA
closer to the inland terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  88  75  90 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  72  91  73  91 /  10  30  10  30
MLB  77  87  78  88 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  75  87  78  89 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  73  91  75  92 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  72  92  74  92 /   0  30  10  30
ORL  72  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  30
FPR  75  87  77  88 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion