Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

099
FXUS62 KMLB 130556
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Cooler but pleasant today with lower rain chances mainly focused
  along the Treasure Coast. Breezy onshore winds will cause poor
  to hazardous boating conditions and a high risk of life-
  threatening rip currents at our beaches.

- Deeper moisture returns this weekend through at least Monday,
  leading to scattered showers and storms. There is a low chance
  for a few strong, gusty storms with locally heavy rain and coin-
  sized hail.

- A strong cold front is slated to push across the state late
  Monday, leading to much cooler weather for the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Generally quasi-zonal flow extends across CONUS this morning. A
shortwave, currently over New England, is responsible for
a cold front that passed through Central Florida on Thursday
evening. This front is expected to undergo frontolysis over South
Florida today. Unseasonably rich moisture will be shunted over the
southern third of the state today as drier air briefly tries to
filter into Central Florida.

A split flow regime sets up over the weekend as a weak branch
of the subtropical jet becomes somewhat more defined over the
southern Gulf. Within this jet segment, a shortwave passing from
Texas into the Gulf will help to back mid-level flow southwesterly.
Anomalously high moisture (PWs of 125-150% of normal for mid-March)
will quickly be advected back over the northern two-thirds of the
peninsula in advance of this feature. This moisture transport will
also be supported by east to southeasterly flow off the Atlantic.

12/12Z cluster analysis of the grand ensemble reveals relatively
strong agreement in the overall pattern over the United States
from late this weekend and into next week, leading to moderate to
high confidence in the timing and strength of weather features
affecting Florida through at least Tuesday. By Sunday night, the
polar jet over the Midwest is expected to buckle in response to a
powerful PV anomaly diving from the Northern Rockies into the
Mississippi Valley. This pattern amplification and eventual
meridional flow will be supported by the PNA flipping positive. This
is typically characterized by a trough over the East and ridging
across the West.

A cold front, associated with the gathering trough and embedded
shortwave to our northwest, should be arriving in Florida by late
Monday or early Tuesday. Above-normal moisture should remain in
place until the front passes, leading to periods of unsettled
weather. Behind the front, a modified batch of unseasonably cold
air should reach the state on Tuesday. From mid to late next week,
guidance supports a record-shattering early season heat ridge over
the Desert Southwest and a lingering but weakening trough along
the Eastern Seaboard. The strength and positioning of this trough
will dictate when significant moisture clears the area. As high
pressure moves off the Carolinas by around Wednesday, surface
parcels should begin to originate off the Atlantic, leading to slow
temperature moderation thereafter.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A sharp mid-level moisture gradient will reside somewhere between
Melbourne and West Palm Beach today, delineating the northern edge
of rain and storm chances on our Friday. Dry conditions are expected
along the I-4 corridor, with rain chances increasing to 30-40% along
the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee regions. We will need to keep
an eye out for any bands of heavy rain that try to form over our far
southern communities today. While a few hi-res models support this,
the threat appears low with the higher chance over South Florida.

We should see quite a bit of sun over the northern two-thirds
of the area, leading to pleasantly warm temps (upper 70s to low
80s). Breezy east to northeast winds are forecast, especially at
the coast where a few gusts up to 25 mph can be expected.

Late tonight, a few showers and storms are forecast to drift
northward over mainly the western half of the peninsula. These
have a low chance of clipping portions of the Kissimmee Basin
late tonight.

Weekend...

Increasingly unsettled weather appears to be on the way to Central
Florida. Moisture increases from the south as subtropical energy
impinges on the state from the Gulf. Temperatures remain above
normal.

Ample moisture in the lower troposphere, combined with the daily
sea breeze circulation, should spark scattered showers and storms
on Saturday. Timing is still somewhat uncertain, but moisture
advection may support showers in the morning hours before coverage
drifts toward the west in the afternoon.

Rain and storm chances become more enhanced on Sunday as a weak
disturbance arrives over the state. Antecedent drought conditions
limit the threat of excessive rainfall, save for any storms that
sit over urban corridors for an extended period of time. Some of
our early-arriving hi-res guidance for this weekend supports a max
rainfall potential of 2-4" in isolated spots, with areal averages
in the 0.5-1.25" range.

While chances appear low and isolated, the environment may support
a few strong storms with coin-sized hail and wind gusts of 40-50
mph this weekend, particularly on Sunday.

Monday - Tuesday night...

A strong cold front will approach the state during the early portion
of the work week, leading to another round of showers and storms on
Monday. If the timing of the front coincides with peak heating and
instability, a few strong and gusty storms may become a threat.
Expect breezy and unusually warm conditions ahead of the front.

The front is most likely to pass through here sometime late Monday
or very early Tuesday, with colder air quickly filtering in behind
it. Statistical guidance suggests that highs in the mid 80s on
Monday will give way to highs in the low 60s to low 70s on Tuesday
(north to south). Lows are forecast to dip as cold as the low/mid
40s northwest of Orlando, with the chilliest conditions Tuesday
night.

Wednesday - next Friday...

The big question mark will be whether rain chances will linger
through mid-week. Around 30-40% of members retain additional energy
at the base of a slow-moving trough over the Eastern U.S., which
would support lingering shower chances. A small majority of the
members suggest a cleaner frontal passage with drier conditions from
late Tuesday onward.

Most (but not all) ensemble members are dry by Thursday
and especially next Friday. Slow temperature moderation is
forecast. Below-normal highs in the upper 60s-low 70s on Wednesday
should rise closer to normal (mid-upper 70s) by next Friday.
There is downside potential for temperatures mid-week if clouds
and showers are more prevalent. Expect some fine-tuning to this
part of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue, with seas worsening
this morning especially in the Gulf Stream. The cold front that
passed over the area will stalls over South Florida before
dissipating late today. High pressure quickly moves from the
mid-Atlantic offshore into the western Atlantic, allowing onshore
flow to resume over the Central Florida waters. Winds slowly veer
from the southeast to south later this weekend and into Monday
ahead of a cold front arriving around Monday night.

Nearshore seas 4-6 FT today, up to 8-9 FT in the Gulf Stream where
Small Craft Advisories will exist all day. Winds relax slowly to
around 8-12 KT from the ENE by late tonight. On Saturday, ESE winds
10-15 KT, becoming SE on Sunday 12-17 KT. Seas 3-5 FT this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Sfc analysis shows frontal boundary has pushed south of all
terminals with a wind shift out of the North-Northeast. Initial
gustiness of 20-24 knots over the interior terminals will subside
with sustained around 10 knots overnight. Along the coast, ocnl
gusts of 20-25 knots will persist and VCSH will be present from VRB-
SUA. May need to add VCSH/VCTS to southern terminals Fri aftn,
spreading northward Fri eve. On Fri, winds will veer more ENE-E with
gusty conds persisting along the coast. Mainly VFR CIGs around
035 AGL but ocnl MVFR CIGs through sunrise Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  62  78  65 /  10  20  30  40
MCO  80  66  80  67 /  10  30  50  40
MLB  78  67  80  67 /  10  40  50  50
VRB  80  65  81  65 /  30  40  50  50
LEE  82  64  81  65 /  10  20  40  30
SFB  80  64  80  65 /  10  30  40  40
ORL  81  65  80  66 /  10  30  40  40
FPR  80  64  81  65 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion