Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

518
FXUS62 KMLB 210715
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- High pressure lifts northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic and
  offshore today, resulting in a gradual increase in low-level
  moisture and rain chances, particularly along the coast and
  across the local Atlantic waters.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast locally due
  to increasing seas and swells coupled with onshore flow.

- After a warming trend through this week and into the weekend,
  the next cold front looks to move across east central Florida on
  Monday, with a return of below-normal temperatures anticipated
  behind it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure north of the Florida peninsula
shifts northeastward and offshore through today, causing winds to
become more easterly locally at 10 to 15 mph. The onshore flow
will advect a warm, moist air mass towards the peninsula within
the lower levels of the atmosphere, and while rain chances remain
low through this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers enter
the forecast tonight, especially across the local Atlantic waters.
Some of these low- topped showers have the potential to move
onshore, particularly along the Treasure Coast, though chances
remain low (20%). Temperatures will be a bit warmer today that the
last few days, with highs reaching near-normal values in the low
to mid 70s areawide. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s to
mid 60s, with the coolest temperatures focused north of the I-4
corridor.

At the beaches, increasing swells coupled with onshore flow will
lead to a high risk of rip currents at all local beaches. Entering
the surf is not advised.

Thursday-Friday...A weak area of low pressure is forecast to
develop near the Bahamas, causing winds to veer more northeasterly
into Thursday. Onshore-moving showers will be possible (20-40%
chance) as moisture continues to increase across east central
Florida, though the best chances remain primarily along the coast
from the Cape southward. By Friday, the low moves eastward out
across the Atlantic and away from the Bahamas, with winds locally
returning to a more onshore component. A low chance (20-30%) for
onshore moving showers will remain in the forecast into Friday
from the Cape southward, with the remainder of east central
Florida forecast to remain mostly dry. Temperatures continue to
warm through late this week, with highs anticipated to reach the
low 80s by Friday. Lows will also remain near to slightly above
normal.

Poor to hazardous beach conditions are also forecast to persist
as swells remain elevated through late this week. A moderate to
high risk of rip currents will be possible, and residents and
visitors are strongly encouraged to monitor the forecast if
heading to the beaches. Always heed the advice of local beach
safety officials and do not enter the ocean if there is a high
risk of rip current development.

Saturday-Tuesday...By this weekend, a complex winter system
impacting a majority of the central and eastern portions of the US
will shift eastward, with the cold front associated with that
activity remaining generally north of the Florida peninsula. This
will keep conditions warm and mostly dry locally, with
temperatures forecast to reach well above normal values, with
highs peaking into the mid and even upper 80s in some spots on
Sunday afternoon. Rain cannot be ruled out entirely, with low
chances along the coast on Saturday due to persistent onshore flow
and again on Sunday across the north as the front inches closer
to the area. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the front
moving southward across the area on Monday, with rain chances of
20-40% forecast areawide. Mostly dry conditions are forecast into
Tuesday as high pressure builds behind the front, though some
lingering activity across the local waters cannot be ruled out.
Cooler temperatures will arrive along and behind the front, and
another period of below normal temperatures, especially Monday and
Tuesday nights, will be possible for the start of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue across the Gulf Stream
waters today, with easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas up to
7 feet. Winds and seas will both gradually subside through today,
with the Small Craft Advisory gradually dropping through today.
Poor boating conditions are anticipated to continue across the
offshore waters through at least Thursday as 6 foot seas linger,
caused by prevailing east to northeast flow of 10 to 15 knots. Due
to the onshore flow, moisture increases in the low-levels, and
rain chances return across the local waters tonight through
Friday, generally ranging from 20 to 50%.

By this weekend, a cold front begins a slow approach, with winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots into Sunday. Seas begin to build
across the offshore waters as a result, reaching up to 8 feet late
Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.
Rain will continue to be possible through this weekend. The front
will likely move southward across the waters on Monday, with poor
to hazardous boating conditions anticipated to continue into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1244 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions prevailing. Winds become increasingly ENE through
around 18Z, before then backing NNE again into the evening and
overnight hours. Winds around 10-12 kts through much of the
period, with gusts near 20 kts, especially along the coast south
of Cape Canaveral.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  56  74  58 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  73  58  77  59 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  73  60  76  62 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  74  60  77  62 /   0  20  30  20
LEE  72  54  76  56 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  73  55  77  58 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  73  57  77  59 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  74  60  77  61 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion