Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

795
FXUS62 KMLB 142335 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
635 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A Wind ADVISORY is in effect tonight along the coast where wind
  gusts of 25-35 mph are expected behind a cold front. Remaining
  windy at times into at least early Monday afternoon.

- High surf and numerous rip currents rapidly developing from
  north to south at all Atlantic beaches tonight. Nearshore seas
  and surf from 7 to 10 feet. Boating conditions quickly worsen,
  becoming hazardous to dangerous through Monday.

- Wind chills briefly reach the upper 30s over northwestern Lake
  and Volusia Counties late tonight. Elsewhere, turning cooler...
  but impactful cold is not expected with this front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Rest of Today-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the
Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today before
deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the
surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will
shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis
building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across
South Florida will lift northward as a warm front today,
increasing the moisture across the southern portions of the CWA.
Forecast PW values will range from 1.0-1.1" across the north to
1.2-1.5" across the south. This will result in an increase in
cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local
area. There is a low to medium (20- 60 percent) chance of rain
from southern Brevard/Osceola southward today, with the greatest
potential for rain occurring across the Treasure Coast and around
Lake Okeechobee into early afternoon. There remains a low (20
percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure
Coast and southern Okeechobee county today. Rain chances push
offshore late afternoon and overnight, remaining mostly dry over
land areas on Monday.

The next cold front will push across east central Florida this
evening into tonight. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no
mentionable rain chances through Monday. However, winds will
increase across the local area tonight into Monday as the axis of
the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula,
tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy
conditions (especially along the coast). North to northwest winds at
5-10 mph today will increase to 15-25 mph across the interior and 20-
30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the coast tonight into
Monday with winds shifting north to northeast on Monday. A Wind
Advisory has been issued along the coast starting at 7pm tonight.
The high pressure will steadily weaken on Monday, which will allow
the pressure gradient to loosen somewhat over the local area. This
will result in the north to northeast winds decreasing, however,
they will remain breezy/gusty especially along the coast.

These strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and
minor beach erosion tonight into Monday. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT
are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. Thus, a
High Surf Advisory has also been issued. The high tide of most
concern will be early Monday between 4am-5am. A High risk of rip
currents goes into effect later this afternoon from Cape Canaveral
northward, spreading to all the coast Monday.

Temperatures will be above normal today before becoming
noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will
be in the upper 70s to low 80s today before dropping to low to
mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south
on Monday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across
the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, and range
from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees
across the far south on Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South
will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting
eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The
trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the
time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning
easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep
South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening
and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly
dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable
rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to
scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic
waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday, with
isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure
Coast.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going
from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s
on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on
Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

Friday-Saturday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern
US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday.  The next cold
front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north
Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday
night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the
CWA throughout the day on Saturday. North to northwest winds at 5-10
mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday behind the
front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be
mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas.
Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday, with
a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring along the immediate
coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will not change much
behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper
70s to low 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from
upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the
south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Conditions will
begin to deteriorate this afternoon and especially this
evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area
behind a cold front, tightening the pressure gradient over the local
area. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern
(Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters
this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf
Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlantic
waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small
Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts
to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf
Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore.

The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Monday so
wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be
slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push
seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in
response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will
take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf
Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the
north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tuesday night
and below 5 FT Wednesday. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wednesday-
Thursday as winds develop a SE component.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Only minor adjustments to ongoing TAFs. First was the timing of
the cold front / wind surge, which is coming in slightly later
this evening from north to south. Second, and of lesser
confidence, is CIGs late tonight and into Monday as marine
stratocumulus develops and moves ashore. Model soundings suggest
bases should be AOA FL030, so flirting with MVFR at a few sites in
the morning before lifting into VFR as the boundary layer deepens
by afternoon.

Peak north to north-northeast wind gusts 22-28 KT for
inland/Orlando area terminals tonight, including at MCO. Coastal
terminals have a 10-20% chance of peak wind gusts of 30+ KT,
particularly at DAB before midnight and along the Treasure Coast
after midnight through sunrise. Winds veer solidly NE with gusts
slowly subsiding Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  62  50  69 /   0  10  10   0
MCO  53  64  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  56  67  55  71 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  59  69  55  73 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  45  62  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  50  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  63  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  59  69  55  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-347-447.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ154-159-164-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion