Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

289
FXUS62 KMLB 191745
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1245 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Dry conditions are forecast over the next couple of days, with
  a return of low (20-30%) rain chances late this week.

- Temperatures are anticipated to trend warmer through the
  forecast period, returning to near and even above normal values
  by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

This Morning...Temperatures continue to fall across east central
Florida as a cold, dry air mass sinks southward across the area.
Morning low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 30s across
most of the area, with below-freezing temperatures forecast across
northern portions of the forecast area. A Freeze Warning remains
in effect until 9 AM for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and
Volusia counties. Breezy northwest winds have also persisted this
morning, resulting in it feeling even colder than it is. Wind
chill values remain on track to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s
areawide, and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all
east central Florida zones excluding coastal Martin County until 9
AM. If heading out early this morning, be sure to wear a warm
jacket and safely utilize space heaters if needed.

Today-Tonight...Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast to develop
across the Florida region today behind strong troughing lifting
northeastward across the Atlantic. This will allow surface high
pressure to build across the southeastern US and Gulf today, with
the ridge axis extending eastward across central Florida. With the
center of the high stationed to the west, north to northwest
winds are forecast locally, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph
anticipated areawide. This northerly flow will continue to advect
drier air towards the peninsula through today, keeping rain
chances near-zero across east central Florida. After a cold start
to this morning, temperatures gradually warm into the mid 50s to
mid 60s, with the warmer temperatures focused across the Treasure
Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Tonight, dry conditions persist
and winds become lighter around 5 to 10 mph, increasing the
potential for some patchy frost development across rural areas of
east central Florida (northern Lake/Volusia and central Osceola).
Overnight temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s across a
majority of the interior west of I-95, with lows in the 40s
forecast along the coast. With winds becoming a bit lighter, wind
chill values are forecast to fall into the low 30s across interior
portions of east central Florida, especially the rural regions.
Values based on the current forecast are borderline for hitting
Cold Weather Advisory criteria, though ensemble guidance is
hinting at a 50% chance of hitting criteria across areas near and
north of the I-4 corridor. Given there remains some uncertainty,
have opted to hold off on issuance for now but will continue to
closely monitor trends through today.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The surface high will slowly shift
northeastward early this week, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by
Wednesday and shifting offshore across the Atlantic. With the high
in proximity of Florida through the middle of this week, rain
chances are forecast to remain near-zero through at least
Wednesday. As the high lifts north of the area, winds will slowly
shift to out of the east, resulting in advection of moisture from
the Atlantic. PWATs recover to right around 1" on Wednesday, with
a return of partly to mostly cloudy skies across east central
Florida. Some isolated to scattered shower development across the
local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out late Wednesday into
Wednesday night as moisture increases. As far as temperatures go,
a warming trend is anticipated into the middle of the week, with
values return to near and even above normal values for this time
of year. Highs Tuesday reach the low 60s to low 70s and by
Wednesday are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s areawide.
Cooler temperatures will persist Tuesday night near and north of
the I-4 corridor as lows fall into the 40s, but near-normal lows
are forecast across the remainder of the area, warming into the
50s to low 60s areawide on Wednesday night.

Thursday-Sunday...As the surface high weakens across the Atlantic
mid-week, the local pattern becomes a bit more convoluted,
especially given inconsistencies between long-range guidance.
There does remain a good deal of uncertainty with the extended
forecast, especially timing, so would advise to continue checking
the forecast over the next few days as guidance comes into better
agreement.

A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop near the
Bahamas late this week, eventually washing out into a weak, nearly
stationary boundary across the Atlantic that will extend towards
the Florida peninsula. Locally, northeast flow is anticipated to
continue advecting moisture towards the area and when coupled with
some energy aloft traversing the peninsula on Thursday, will lead
to a low chance (20-30%) for shower development across the area.
By Friday, lingering moisture along the boundary and onshore flow
will favor another day with low chances for showers, especially
along the coast. Heading into the weekend, conditions trend drier
into Saturday before rain looks to reenter the forecast on Sunday
across northern portions of east central Florida as another cold
front begins its approach towards the area. Temperatures are
anticipated to continue warming through the extended forecast,
reaching above normal values areawide late this week into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to gradually improve
throughout today as winds subside below 20 knots and seas fall
below 7 feet. However, persistent northeast to east winds of 10 to
15 knots, occasionally 15 to 20 knots at times, will help seas
maintain a 4 to 6 foot wave height through most of this week. In
summary, poor boating conditions are anticipated to persist across
the local Atlantic waters, and small craft will likely need to
exercise caution all week, especially across the offshore waters.
Dry conditions are forecast through at least Wednesday morning,
with a return of 30-50% rain chances across the waters Wednesday
afternoon through at least Friday. Storms are not anticipated with
this activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR through the period. North winds have been occasionally gusty
this afternoon, but settle into the evening. A gradual wind
increase is forecast after midnight becoming 6-9 kts at most
terminals by sunrise. North-northeast winds become breezy Tuesday
with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts along the coast. Dry conditions
persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are
anticipated today across east central Florida, especially across
the interior west of I-95. Dry air will cause minimum RH values to
fall below 35% across a majority of the interior, with values
forecast to fall as low as 25% in some spots. Additionally,
northeast winds will remain breezy at times throughout today, with
sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph forecast. Tuesday, minimum RH
values are forecast to improve, though there is a low chance of
values falling below 35% north of the I-4 corridor. Overall,
conditions will be borderline critical thresholds in some spots
the next couple of days. Conditions are anticipated to improve by
the middle of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  38  61  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  39  63  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  42  67  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  43  69  57  74 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  35  61  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  37  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  38  63  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  42  69  56  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion