Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

433
FXUS62 KMLB 040559
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Scattered showers and a few storms across the south tonight into
  Monday morning.

- Hot temperatures expected by the middle of the week. Widespread
  low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday over the interior,
  expanding to all areas by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...The earlier front as moved into far
southern Florida as of early this afternoon. High coverage of mid
low and mid-level clouds persists from around Melbourne southward,
helping to keep temperatures in this area in the lower 70s.
Elsewhere, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed temperatures to
climb into the mid to upper 70s. Scattered showers continue across
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast and are forecast to
linger through tonight. Overall instability is low. However,
cannot rule out a stray lightning strike or two, should cloud
cover diminish enough to warm the surface. Otherwise, the best
chance for a storm or two will likely be late tonight from any
convection over the waters, which could drift into the coast along
breezy onshore flow. Quite the gradient for PoPs into tonight,
with 40-60% Vero Beach southward and no mentionable PoPs north of
a line from Kissimmee to Titusville. Most areas remain in the 60s
late tonight, though drier air will allow for the normally cooler
locations in northern Lake and Volusia Counties to dip into the
upper 50s.

Monday-Thursday...The front lingers in the vicinity of south Florida
and the Straits through mid-week. Aloft, a series of upper level
shortwaves traverse the Florida peninsula through Tuesday, before
increasingly zonal flow develops into late week. At the surface, a
ridge developing off of the Mid-Atlantic coast stretches a ridge
axis towards the local area through Thursday. The presence of the
front will maintain slightly higher moisture (PWATs 1.15-1.3")
across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County Monday and Tuesday.
This, combined with modest support from the passing shortwaves, may
be enough to generate isolated to scattered showers and storms in
the afternoons, generally south of Orlando. PoPs 20-30%. By
Wednesday and Thursday, the loss of upper level support and the
ridge axis keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast.

Breezy onshore flow continues on Monday, with wind gusts 20-25 mph,
especially along the coast, in the afternoon. Onshore winds weaken
Tuesday and veer southwesterly by Thursday, as the ridge begins to
move farther into the Atlantic. Thus, a more typical sea breeze
pattern is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, before it is pinned to
the coast Thursday. Diminishing onshore flow and increasing
southwesterly flow will cause temperatures to rise through the
period. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday afternoon reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday. Thursday is expected to be
the hottest day, with near-record highs in the lower to mid-90s.

Friday-Sunday...A weak front is forecast to push the aforementioned
ridge into the Atlantic late week, reaching north Florida on Friday.
Models are struggling to get a handle on where the front will likely
stall and how much moisture will be present along it. So, will
continue to watch, but the bottom line is that low to medium rain
chances look to return for the weekend. Since the front will be
weak, little relief is expected from hot temperatures, as highs
remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A weak front continues through southern Florida and into the
Straits through mid-week, as a high pressure ridge axis develops
over the waters. Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
through Monday, as high pressure builds over the area. Seas up to
4-7 ft in the Gulf Stream linger, with a surge of NE winds 20-25
kts forecast for Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Thus, small
craft should exercise caution over the Gulf Stream into tonight,
with a Small Craft Advisory issued for the Gulf Stream south of
Cape Canaveral Monday.

Conditions then improve Tuesday into late week, as onshore winds
slacken and veer southwesterly through the period. A sea breeze
will continue to develop near the coast each afternoon, increasing
winds to 10-15 kts. Seas diminish 3-4 ft Tuesday and 2-3 ft by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

MVFR CIGs continue at KVRB-KSUA through the early afternoon, then
finally lift/clear between 17Z-20Z. Low to moderate (20-40%)
chances of SHRA from KMLB-KSUA tonight gradually decrease
southward through the morning and afternoon, with mostly dry
conditions forecast by around 20Z. Otherwise dry/VFR conditions
forecast at ECFL terminals. Light NNE/NE winds tonight increase to
8-13 kts in the morning, then further increase in the afternoon
to 12-17 kts with gusts 20-25 from NE-ENE, before subsiding to 10
kts or less in the late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A stalled front and onshore flow will keep min RH well above
critical levels along the coast and across Okeechobee County. To
the north, building high pressure will usher in drier air, leading
to min RH between 40-50%, lowest across Lake County. Breezy
onshore flow into Monday, with gusts up to 20-25 mph, will slacken
through the remainder of the work week. Scattered showers and
storms remain possible, mainly in the afternoons south of Orlando,
through Tuesday.

Looking ahead, increasingly hot temperatures will lead to more
sensitive min RH conditions through mid-week. Min RH is forecast
to fall to 40-50% area-wide, with a few interior locations nearing
35%. Highs reach the lower to mid-90s during this time. Winds
favor a sea breeze pattern through the period, with southwesterly
flow keeping the breeze pinned to the coast Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  82  67 /   0  10  10   0
MCO  82  65  86  69 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  79  68  83  70 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  79  67  83  69 /  30  20  20   0
LEE  84  63  87  68 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  83  63  87  67 /   0  10  10   0
ORL  83  65  87  69 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  79  67  83  68 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ555-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion