Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

204
FXUS62 KMLB 021843
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms through
  roughly 11 PM today, especially near and north of I-4. The
  primary hazard is a 5-15% chance for damaging wind gusts. There
  is also a small chance for large hail and a tornado or two.
  There is a Tornado Watch in effect from Brevard to Osceola
  northward through 6 PM tonight.

- Hot ahead of the storms today with widespread low/mid 90s in
  the afternoon. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which
  affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to
  adequate hydration or cooling. Temps turn cooler on Sunday.

- Peak wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected ahead of any storms
  this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Brevard to
  Osceola counties northward through 6PM. These gusty winds
  combined with low relative humidity and drought conditions have
  produced sensitive to critical fire weather conditions this
  afternoon. Outdoor burning is discouraged today! A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect this afternoon south of Orlando and the
  Cape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure across Ontario with axis
extending across the Midwest and into TX will steadily shift
eastward, deepening as it shifts towards the eastern seaboard. At
the surface, a cold front draped across the Deep South and the
Florida panhandle will slowly drop southward across central Florida
through the day and overnight hours. Current guidance shows the
front reaching Lake/Volusia counties by mid afternoon and
continuing to shift southward across ECFL through the day and
overnight hours, pushing into South Florida before daybreak on
Sunday. Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the
front as the Florida peninsula is situated between the approaching
cold front to the north and the high pressure across the western
Atlantic to the south. Strong and gusty SW winds of 15-20 mph with
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph will develop by late morning and
continue into the afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
Brevard/Osceola northward for frequent gusts near 35 mph through 6
PM.

Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today with
near record highs at MLB/VRB/FPR. Afternoon highs will reach the
upper 80s to low 90s across Lake/Volusia counties (due to the high
cloud cover and rain chances), and low to mid 90s everywhere else,
with mid 90s especially across the Space and Treasure Coasts.
Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which affects those
sensitive to heat and/or without access to adequate hydration or
cooling. In addition, deep mixing will produce lowest RH values
across the south. Low RH combined with the gusty SW winds and
already dry conditions has prompted a Red Flag Warning from
Osceola/south Brevard to Okeechobee and Treasure coast through 7
PM this evening. Important to note that today will be a very fire
sensitive day across all of EC FL but Red Flag criteria are most
likely to be met across the south. Any new or existing fires will
be capable of spreading rapidly. Any lightning strikes may spark
brush fires that smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

Rain and storm chances return this afternoon along and ahead of the
front. While CAM guidance is in agreement with a faster convective
evolution, there remains some disagreement with exact timing of the
convection. However, current guidance shows the convective band
reaching the northern counties of the CWA by early to mid-afternoon.
Convection is forecast to weaken as it moves southward across ECFL
into this evening and overnight. There is a medium to high (40-70
percent) chance of showers and storms from Orlando metro area
northward, and a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and
storms southward towards Okeechobee/St. Lucie counties in the
afternoon and evening. Rain chances then increase to 40-70 percent
area wide in the evening and overnight hours as the front continues
to push southward across the local area.

The storm environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms
this afternoon and evening, mainly focused along and north of I 4
but extends across Orlando metro and Brevard/Osceola counties. This
is supported by forecast soundings showing an increase in moisture
(PW values of 1.5-1.9"), cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at
500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE 900-1300 J/kg), ample upper
level shear (50-65 knots), as well as an adequate downdraft
potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-60 mph,
hail and even a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The primary
threat continues to be strong to damaging wind gusts with large hail
and a Tornado or two being a secondary threat. If hail does occur,
it will most likely occur in discrete individual supercells, but the
shear may be too strong too allow for this. A Tornado Watch has been
issued for Brevard, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia
counties until 6 PM. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Lake and
Volusia Counties into a Slight risk (level 2/5), with a Marginal
risk (level 1/5) to the south.

Sunday... The aforementioned upper level trough across the eastern
US will continue to push eastward and offshore into the Atlantic
through the day, eventually forming a closed low near Maine/New
Brunswick/Nova Scotia. The cold front located near the southern
Treasure Coast/Southern Florida line near day break will continue to
shift southward through the day. Locally, the pressure gradient will
slacken slightly, causing the NE winds to settle to 10-15 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. Scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms are forecast on Sunday, mainly across the southern
sections, with highest rain chances (70 percent) focused on Martin
county. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the threat
for strong/severe storms. Because of this, the main storm threats
will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally
heavy rainfall. This is supported by the GFS forecast PW values
being around 2.0" across the southern CWA with drier air forecast to
filter in across the north behind the front (PW values 1.2-1.5").
Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the mid to upper
70s, except low 80s across Lake county. Overnight lows will be near
to slightly below normal, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across
the north, and low to mid 60s across the south.

Monday-Saturday... Ridging aloft will stay in place through the
period, sliding southward into late week as an upper level low
across the Midwest swings into the NE by Friday, and up into Canada
by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure extending from the Gulf
Coast States across the Southeast U.S will weaken into mid-week,
shifting seaward into the western Atlantic. The next frontal
boundary will then drop southward into the Deep South by mid/late
week, pushing southward across the Florida peninsula on Friday. High
pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the
front on Saturday. Locally, onshore flow (E/SE) will prevail through
Wednesday, becoming gusty each afternoon behind the east coast sea
breeze. Winds will then turn westerly on Thursday ahead of the
front, north/northeast on Friday behind the front, and easterly on
Saturday.

Lingering moisture from the stalled front over South Florida/
Straits of Florida will keep a low (20 percent) chance of showers
across Martin and St. Lucie Counties on Monday. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions forecast through mid week. Rain and storm chances
return Thursday as the next frontal boundary approaches the local
area. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and
storms Thursday and Friday as the front moves southward across the
area. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the period,
with afternoon highs soaring into the low to mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today-Wednesday... Deteriorating boating conditions today as a cold
front approaches and pushes southward across the area through the
day into Sunday. Southwest winds will generally be at 15-20 KT today
over the offshore waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet , with
a period of near 20 KT offshore in the afternoon ahead of the front.
Winds then shift out of the north tonight into Sunday behind the
front, then out of the northeast Sunday night/Monday as an elongated
high pressure to the north builds over the area. Wind speeds will be
15-20 KT behind the front, decreasing to 10-15 KT Monday. Winds veer
east to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday around 10 KT as the ridge
axis approaches the area. Seas build 3-5 ft today before building to
4-6 ft Sunday. Seas begin to subside slightly on Monday, with seas 3-
5 ft before decreasing further to 3-4 ft area wide Tuesday and
Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
(chances up to 70 percent) will accompany the frontal passage this
afternoon into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30 percent) remaining
possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions
forecast Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A TORNADO WATCH remains in effect thru 6PM this evening for
terminals across I-4 and down thru MLB. SW/WSW winds
breezy/gusty (15-20 kts, G30 kts, possibly higher outside of
convection). SCT, quick- moving, TSRA along/ahead of the front
arrive at KLEE/KDAB around 18Z, gradually pushing south over the
next several hours, reaching the KSUA around 02Z, then dissipating
after 05Z. Forecast is for decreasing intensity thru late
aftn/early eve. Will need to watch for ISOLD-SCT discrete cells
developing ahead of the line as well. ISOLD +TSRA could produce
wind gusts exceeding 35-40 kts, esp from KMLB north between
18Z-00Z. High moisture near the front will continue to produce
-SHRA and drop CIGs to MVFR behind the main convective line
through most of the night with gradual improvement during the day
on Sun at least north of MLB; much slower CIG improvement south of
here. NW winds tonight, post-frontal, gradually diminish to near
10 kts. Winds continue to veer N/NE thru the day on Sun, with
speeds 10-15 kts as the pgrad remains a bit tight. ISOLD to SCT
convection on Sun - generally from near MLB southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong and gusty southwest to west winds today will increase 15-25
mph with gusts 30-35 mph by early afternoon and produce a fire
weather sensitive day across all of east central FL. Hottest temps
and lowest RH values will occur south of Orlando where mid 90s and
critical RH values are forecast. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Osceola, Okeechobee, Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River
and south Brevard counties this afternoon. Dispersion values will be
Excellent all areas. Such conditions will support rapid spread of
any new or existing fires.

An cold front will push into Lake and Volusia counties late today
and reach south Florida early Sunday. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will accompany the front beginning late this
afternoon across the north, spreading southward tonight. Cooler on
Sunday behind the front with lingering showers and storms across
southern sections. Any lightning strikes will be a concern for new
fire starts. Unfortunately, the rainfall this weekend is forecast to
bring only limited drought relief.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Record high temperatures today:

Site     May 2
DAB    95 (1953)
LEE    95 (1990)
SFB    94 (2010)
MCO    97 (1906)
MLB    95 (2002)
VRB    94 (2002)
FPR    95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  77  61  80 /  50   0   0   0
MCO  65  80  64  83 /  50  10  10  10
MLB  68  78  67  80 /  70  20  20  10
VRB  68  78  66  80 /  70  40  30  10
LEE  61  81  60  85 /  40   0   0   0
SFB  63  80  61  83 /  50   0   0   0
ORL  65  80  63  83 /  50   0  10   0
FPR  68  78  66  80 /  70  50  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tornado Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-
     159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...Tornado Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ552.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion