Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

624
FXUS62 KMLB 211946
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
246 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Isolated shower chances continue tonight into tomorrow,
  primarily south of Cape Canaveral and over the local Atlantic
  waters

- Continued warming trend late this week into the weekend with
  near record highs in a few locations by Sunday

- Below-normal temperatures return early next week behind a strong
  cold front, which looks to push through on Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Now-Tonight...Fair weather continues this afternoon with a mix of
sun and onshore-moving clouds. The leading edge of these clouds
outlines the westward advance of the east coast sea breeze.
Temperatures are climbing into the upper 60s and mid 70s, a full
5-10+ degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Breezy conditions
(gusty along the coast) will gradually subside inland after
sunset, while remaining breezy at the coast, south of Cape
Canaveral. As moisture increases tonight, isolated to scattered
showers return to the Treasure Coast. The shallow nature of these
showers makes them susceptible to low-level steering flow, which
gradually turns from southeasterly to south-southwesterly
overnight. Therefore, any showers brushing the Treasure Coast
after sunset are more likely to trend offshore after midnight.
Inland areas will remain mostly dry as overnight lows settle into
the 50s (low to mid 60s along the coast, south of the Cape).

Thursday-Friday...High pressure gradually weakens through late
week but maintains some influence on our local conditions. Onshore
flow is forecast to continue, turning more northeasterly Thursday
afternoon as a stationary boundary meanders between the Bahamas
and southeast FL coast. PW around 1.4-1.5" linger near the
Treasure Coast through Friday, helping to support isolated to
scattered showers. These showers will be most prominent over the
Atlantic waters but brush the coast or push onshore at times,
mainly to the south of Cape Canaveral. Winds slacken on Friday,
turning more easterly again, as a weak WSW 500mb pattern holds
over the Gulf and FL Peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to climb
above normal Thursday (mid to upper 70s) and into the 80s by
Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will stay several degrees warmer
along the coast due to onshore flow.

For those looking to enjoy some time outdoors with the warmer
weather, keep in mind that the risk for rip currents will remain
moderate to high. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged
to monitor the forecast if heading to the beaches. Always heed the
advice of local beach safety officials and do not enter the ocean
if there is a high risk of rip current development.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...By this weekend, a complex winter
system impacting a majority of the central and eastern portions of
the US will shift eastward, with an associated cold front remaining
generally north of the Florida Peninsula. This will keep
conditions warm and mostly dry locally, with temperatures forecast
to reach well above normal values. Highs peak in the mid and upper
80s in some spots on Sunday afternoon. Rain cannot be ruled out
entirely, with low chances along the coast on Saturday due to
persistent onshore flow and again on Sunday across the north as
the front inches closer to the area. Guidance continues to trend
toward the front moving southward across the area on Monday, with
rain chances of 20-40% forecast areawide. Mostly dry conditions
are forecast into Tuesday as high pressure builds behind the
front, though some lingering activity across the local waters
cannot be ruled out. Colder temperatures will arrive along and
behind the front, and another period of below normal temperatures,
especially Monday and Tuesday nights, will be possible to begin
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Poor boating conditions will linger over the offshore waters
through Friday morning as 6 ft seas and an onshore breeze
continue. Low-level moisture is forecast to increase from south
north, raising rain chances to 20-45% (highest over the Gulf
Stream).

Weak high pressure influences local marine conditions through the
weekend with seas 3-5 ft through Saturday. Timing of a strong cold
front continues to trend toward Monday, though in advance of the
front, winds increase out of the south-southwest on Sunday. Seas
build in response, particularly offshore, up to 6 to 8 ft. As the
strong front pushes south across the waters early next week, north
winds strengthen and build seas further. Hazardous boating
conditions are anticipated as a result. Rain chances also increase
with the passage of the front from Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. ENE winds will increase to
08-13 KT this afternoon with gusts 18- 22 KT along the coast,
mainly from MLB southward. Winds decrease to 5-10 KT, becoming
light and variable at times across the interior before winds
increase to around 10 KT by mid-morning Thursday (around 15Z).
Onshore moving showers will be possible starting this afternoon
and going through tomorrow afternoon across the Treasure Coast.
Probability is highest from VRB southward, but there is a 20
percent chance showers could make it up to MLB into tonight. Have
included VCSH for now from VRB southward, and will monitor for
sites northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  74  57  78 /   0  10   0  10
MCO  57  76  59  80 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  60  76  62  78 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  60  77  62  80 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  53  76  54  80 /   0  10   0  10
SFB  55  77  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
ORL  56  77  58  80 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  60  77  61  80 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion