Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

932
FXUS62 KMLB 181056
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
656 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Another cold morning for parts of east central Florida. Wind
  chills will dip as low as the mid 30s to low 40s over the
  interior and Volusia County early today. Cool this afternoon
  with a few showers along the Treasure Coast.

- Windy at times over the next couple of days along the coast.
  Peak wind gusts reach up to 25 mph. Expect rough surf and a high
  risk of rip currents at our beaches. Boating conditions will
  remain poor to hazardous.

- Turning warmer by the weekend, with high temperatures rebounding
  into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Unusually cool and dry air has returned to east central
Florida. This evening`s Cape Canaveral sounding (18/00z) showed
extremely dry air at H85 and an impressive inversion from 2500 to
7000 ft, marking the shallow nature of the cool air mass. Water
vapor imagery depicts a vorticity axis embedded within southwest
flow aloft, which is generating clouds and virga over the southern
portions of the district. This feature is forecast to move east
of the state over the next 12-18 hours.

Meridional flow persists over the U.S., with the East Coast and
Florida stuck beneath an upper trough. This pattern is currently
quite stagnant and should remain that way through the end of
the work week. As a record-breaking H5 ridge slowly migrates
from California to the Sonoran Desert by Friday, a pair of weak
shortwaves spilling from the Plains toward Florida will slowly
push the trough axis eastward and into the Atlantic. Embedded in
northwesterly flow, these disturbances should be moisture-starved.

Surface high pressure currently rests from the Appalachians to
the Mississippi coast, with a front now stalled out over the
Bahamas. Over the next 48 hours, the surface high should push
eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard, tightening the pressure
gradient and allowing low-level winds to veer onshore over the
Florida peninsula. This will act to moderate the cool, continental
air mass overhead. While remaining below normal for mid-March,
3 kft (H925) temperatures should slowly climb from around +7 deg
C this morning to +12 deg C on Friday.

17/12Z guidance remains in solid agreement through the
weekend. The ridge over the West should flatten in response
to a shortwave quickly clipping across the northern tier of
states. Ahead of its cold front, high pressure settles over
Florida by Saturday. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will carry some of the
unseasonable warmth from the Western U.S. toward the east. While
stronger positive temperature anomalies remain to our north,
this will help scour out the remaining cooler air locally.

Another bout of cool high pressure from Canada should follow the
shortwave moving into New England this weekend. Guidance differs
in how quickly it will push a cold front toward the state,
with the favored solution showing a weak passage around next
Tuesday. Moisture is forecast to increase as this occurs, with a
50-70% chance of PWATs jumping to over 1" by that time. As the
high passes well north of here, winds should quickly turn onshore
and freshen, limiting cold advection.

Overall, this pattern favors generally tranquil weather for east
central Florida over the next week.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Thursday...

Thinning clouds are forecast this morning over all but the Space
and Treasure Coasts, allowing temperatures to continue falling. By
daybreak, expect a strong contrast from north to south, with upper
30s/low 40s north of Orlando and mid-upper 40s from I-4 to Lake
Okeechobee. Meanwhile, onshore breezes should hold the immediate
Space Coast down to the Treasure Coast in the 50s. Dress for wind
chills in the mid 30s to low 40s early today across the interior
and I-4 corridor!

North-northeast breezes will pick up, gusting up to 20-25 mph
or so along the immediate coast the next couple of afternoons. As
our winds begin to turn onshore, a gradual moderation of
overnight temperatures will occur. Lows on Thursday morning should
generally be in the low/mid 50s, except for some mid/upper 40s
over the rural interior.

We should see more sun over the northern half of the district
today, but clouds should hang tough over the Treasure Coast and,
occasionally, the Space Coast. We will also keep a 20-30% chance
for a few showers, mainly south of Vero Beach. Additional shallow
moisture embedded in the onshore flow may bring increased cloud
cover and a few showers along the coast on Thursday, especially
from the Cape southward (20-30%).

Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday,
but still below normal for the time of year (mid-upper 60s to
near 70). Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Thursday,
reaching the low to mid 70s.

Friday - Monday...

We can`t completely eliminate the coastal shower chances until
late Friday for areas south of Melbourne, but coverage still looks
low (20-30%). Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are
anticipated through this timeframe as high pressure drifts over
the area. Winds should decrease, and the warming trend really gets
going. While most areas will stay in the 70s on Friday, all but the
immediate coast have a 50% or greater chance to reach 80 deg F on
Saturday. By Sunday and Monday, all areas should reach the 80s,
with a 50-70% chance of interior locations reaching 85 deg F or
higher by Sunday and Monday.

Next Tuesday - Wednesday...

There is some potential for a weak cold front to pass by, with high
pressure to the north allowing winds to turn onshore and freshen. If
this occurs, high temperatures may drop a few degrees, especially
along the coast. There is also an indication that moisture will
increase, leading to low chances for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The local Atlantic will sit between a stationary front over the
Bahamas and high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard through
the next couple of days. As the pressure gradient tightens,
winds will become fresh to occasionally strong out of the
north-northeast. Boating conditions will remain poor to, at times,
hazardous through at least Friday. Then, high pressure settles
over the waters this weekend, leading to improving conditions.

NNE winds 15-20 kt through Thursday, with seas building from
4-6 ft today to 5-8 ft on Thu afternoon, highest in the Gulf
Stream. Dominant periods are 7-9 sec, so these will be quite
rough conditions! By Friday, seas subside slightly to 4-6 ft,
then further to 3-5 ft this weekend as winds also relax in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions largely continue across east central Florida and
are forecast to persist through today into tonight. The exception
continues to be at KSUA where MVFR cigs look to hold on through
much of today, potentially improving to VFR into this evening.
Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles will continue to
be possible across the Treasure Coast TAF sites (KVRB-KSUA) today,
with limited to no impacts to visibility expected from this
activity.

North-northeast winds increase to around 10-15 knots, with gusts
up to 20-22 knots especially along the coast late this morning and
afternoon. Northerly winds will then decrease to 7-10 knots after
sunset this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Fire-sensitive weather conditions are again favored today over the
interior, especially northwest of Lake George to Sanford to Lake
Kissimmee where RH readings should dip to 35-40% with northwest
winds of around 10-12 mph. RH values recover slightly on Thursday,
then fall again from Friday through the weekend as temperatures
turn warmer. RH minima of 30-40% are forecast over the interior
Fri-Sun, but winds should turn lighter as the weekend progresses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  50  69  53 /   0  10  10   0
MCO  69  51  71  54 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  68  56  72  57 /   0  10  30  20
VRB  69  56  74  58 /  20  10  30  30
LEE  69  48  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  69  50  71  52 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  52  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  69  55  74  56 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion