Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Storm Names

780
FXUS62 KMLB 020600
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

-Patchy dense fog will be possible late overnight into early
 Wednesday morning and may reduce visibility less than 1/2 mile in
 spots.

-Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat
 indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95.

-Becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain
 chances through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Well, our little summer preview of afternoon/evening convection
continues out there this evening. ACARS soundings revealed
plentiful DCAPE (>1000 J/kg) courtesy of steep lapse rates and dry
air aloft. Sea breeze boundary collision was the catalyst for
storm development, with the activity currently lined up along I-4.
The storm of the day, so far, was over Seminole County with echo
tops to 50 KFT.

Still the potential for a rogue strong/severe storm through the
next couple hours with general lightning storm chances along I-4
corridor ending by late evening. Overnight, will monitor for some
patchy fog - the risk is likely greatest near where rain fell
today and any wildfires. Boundary-layer winds start to increase
late and this may preclude widespread fog formation.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Current-Tonight...Continued warm and humid across ECFL as afternoon
maxes remain well above climo in the U80s inland and in the M80s at
the coast. Peak heat indices into the low 90s W of I-95. The
pressure gradient is weak with light SWRLY winds transitioning
onshore at the coast this afternoon, with this trend slowly
pushing inland thru late day and early evening, quicker inland
across the Treasure Coast. Expect another sea breeze collision
late (early evening) across the central peninsula. Scattered
showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop. The steering
flow will be light westerly with some erratic movement at times,
and some of this activity may drift back toward the Volusia and
north Brevard coasts. Storms will dissipate through late evening,
with highest PoPs (30-40pct) across the I-4 corridor and Osceola
County. There should be less coverage overall than was witnessed
the past couple of days. Dry conditions are then forecast across
land areas through the overnight hours.

A few storms may be strong late today with primary impacts of
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph locally, small
hail, and torrential downpours.

925 mb SERLY winds increase to 15-20 kts off the surface overnight,
which should lend toward favoring stratus over fog development, but
will follow persistence from the last couple days of rainfall and
add patchy fog for late overnight into early Wed morning. Would
suspect greatest chances would be inland from the coast where it
could again become locally dense. Overnight lows will remain mild in
the upper 60s, to around 70F with conditions humid.

Wed-Sun...Previous Discussion Modified...Mid-upper level high
pressure across the western Atlc, extending to the Florida
peninsula, will amplify and dominate the local weather pattern. This
high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening
towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across
the Northeast U.S. on Wed will slowly shift southward out into the
western Atlantic through the weekend, with associated ridge axis
building across the Florida peninsula by the weekend. Locally
southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming
breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph
across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift
south on Sun as the surface high pressure retreats south/east with
the approach of a frontal boundary across the Deep South. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon
with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temps will
remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the
U80s to L90s across the interior, and M80s along the coast. Peak
afternoon heat indices in the L90s W of I-95. Overnight lows will
be U60s to L70s on Wed overnight, and M-U60s Thu night onward.

Mon-Tue...Previous Discussion Modified...A broad upper-level trough
across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward,
reaching the southeast U.S. coastline (near the Carolinas) Tue
night. An accompanying/weakening cold front across the Deep South on
Mon will push southeast across the local area Mon night into Tue
morning. The GFS is the faster solution with the ECMWF bringing the
boundary through on Tue. Either way, this will bring rain chances
back into the forecast. For now, there is a low to medium (20-40
pct) chance of showers and lightning storms across east central
Florida on Mon aftn/night along and ahead of the front before
increasing to 40-50 pct on Tue, depending on timing of this feature.
Prefrontal SW winds on Mon will veer W/NW with approach/passage of
the boundary. Winds continue to veer to N/NE further behind the
boundary, as long as it makes a clean passage.

Warm conditions on Mon, prefrontal, with noticeably cooler
temperatures behind this boundary once it passes. Afternoon highs
will be in the U80s to L90s on Mon, falling into M70s across the I-4
corridor to U70s/L80s south towards Lake Okee/Treasure Coast on Tue,
if the front passes as presently scheduled. Overnight lows into Tue
morning in the U50s north of I-4, L60s southward, except M60s along
the immediate Treasure Coast and adjacent barrier islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Remainder of afternoon thru Sat...Weak high pressure across the
western Atlc will periodically become reinforced thru late week,
with associated ridge axis settling across the central FL
peninsula by this weekend. Variable light winds early today
transition to SERLY with the local sea breeze regime 6-12 kts. SE
winds increase to 12-16 kts on Wed, and 15-20 kts over the Gulf
Stream Wed night-Thu night before diminishing to around 15 kts
Fri- Sat. Seas 3-4 ft build to 4-5ft Wed night-Thu night (possibly
6 ft well offshore) before slowly subsiding to 3-4 ft again Fri
aftn/Sat. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend,
except for isolated to scattered showers/lightning storms mainly
Cape Canaveral northward this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected through today into tonight, with
dry conditions forecast. Some brief MVFR cigs may continue
through 08Z from KMLB southward. Also, may see some patchy fog
develop through early this morning, producing tempo IFR/MVFR
conds. Added tempo 5SM BR between 10-13Z for inland sites and KDAB
where fog potential is slightly higher. However, hi-res guidance
currently indicates best potential for fog north and west of the
east central FL area.

Expansive area of high pressure with center pushing offshore the
northeast U.S. this afternoon will produce a breezy to windy
southeast flow across the area today. SE winds will increase to
around 12-15 knots across the interior with gusts to 20-22 knots.
The inland moving east coast sea breeze will increase E/SE winds
along the coast even more, around 15-20 knots with gusts to around
25 knots this afternoon. Increasing boundary layer winds above the
surface into tonight should limit any fog potential, but may see
some patchy/areas of stratus form late in the night, producing
tempo MVFR cigs, mainly after 06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  69  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  89  71  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  84  71  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  84  71  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  90  70  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  89  70  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  89  71  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  70  84  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion