Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

112
FXUS62 KMLB 021030
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
630 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- There is a continued high risk for numerous, life-threatening
  rip currents at Atlantic beaches of Central Florida today.
  Please remain out of the rough surf.

- One or two storms may become strong this afternoon over interior
  locations. The primary hazards are occasional lightning, wind
  gusts from 40 to 50 mph, and small hail.

- Remaining warm into the weekend. The next cold front reaches
  Florida by next Monday and Tuesday, bringing increasing rain and
  storm chances ahead of slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida resides just south of a broad area of above-normal H5
heights extending from the N Atlantic to the Mississippi Valley
and onward into the E Pacific. The polar jet is relatively weak
at this time, carving out a trough over the Intermountain West. At
the surface, an axis of surface high pressure remains close to the
I-10 corridor, delivering moderate onshore flow to the Florida
Peninsula. MIMIC-TPW2 shows that a surge of higher moisture is
currently over the Bahamas. This moisture should pass over the
state later today.

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise slightly over the next
few days, keeping significant disturbances well north of the
state. The surface high pressure axis should also remain to the
north of Central Florida, and with a weakness in the tropics, the
pressure gradient will remain sufficient for moderate to fresh
easterlies. Moisture values return to near normal from Friday
through at least early Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon, a PV anomaly currently over the Pacific
Northwest should reach the Great Lakes. As it moves farther east
toward New England, it should lay out a cold front over the Deep
South by Monday. The front should encounter increasingly parallel
flow as it arrives over Florida early next week. 01/12Z cluster
analysis revealed minor disagreement in the depth of the trough
passing to our north, which may affect the front`s southward
momentum once it makes it to Florida. It remains in question whether
it slows or completely stalls near the area. Some members,
particularly within the GEFS suite, are stronger with a subtropical
shortwave passing by around Tuesday which could briefly sharpen the
surface front or trough.

A surge of greater moisture should accompany the front once it
arrives. By later next week, ensemble means suggest the deeper
moisture will be shunted toward South Florida, with onshore flow
persisting as another continental high moves off of New England.
Modest cool advection is also forecast behind this front, with H85
(5 kft) T`s dropping 2 to 3 deg C below normal by next Wednesday.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

The key player in our forecast today will be the arrival of deeper
moisture off the Bahamas, beneath drier air aloft. Hi-res guidance
supports some onshore-moving showers along the coast later this
morning. By afternoon, the activity should shift inland on a diffuse
sea breeze. Scattered storms should form over the interior, with
the greatest coverage south of Orlando. A few stronger storms with
gusty winds to around 40-50 mph and small hail cannot be ruled
out this afternoon. It should be seasonably warm with breezy
east-southeast winds gusting from 20-25 mph.

Friday - Weekend...

As ridging builds, drier air aloft settles over the state from
Friday afternoon and into Saturday. Enough moisture persists for low
shower and storm chances (< 30%). By Sunday, additional moisture
looks to arrive off the Atlantic, which may enhance coverage just
a bit. Through the weekend, temperatures will warm above normal
over the interior, with breezy coastal locations a bit cooler.

The risk for numerous, life-threatening rip currents will remain
high at all east coast beaches through the weekend. Entering the
surf is strongly discouraged.

Next Week...

A weakening cold front will encroach upon the peninsula and
likely stall or decelerate upon arrival. Plentiful moisture
influx is supported by most of the guidance, which should give
us increasing coverage of showers and storms through at least
Monday and Tuesday. After that time, there is some disagreement
in how quickly, or whether, the moisture gets displaced to our
south. As mentioned in the overview, there is potential for a
ripple of energy to pass by around Tuesday which could sharpen
the boundary. This would lead to higher rain chances and increase
the threat for another impactful onshore wind event. Confidence
is rather low at this time, and we have several days to monitor it.

High temperatures look to turn cooler beginning around Tuesday,
with most spots forecast to only reach the 70s by the middle of
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The extended period of poor boating conditions will continue
through the weekend. With an axis of high pressure to the north
of the waters, fresh onshore breezes will keep seas rough for the
next few days. The next cold front is set to reach Central Florida
around Monday or Tuesday, with some potential for additional fresh
to strong onshore winds behind that front.

Each day through Sunday, expect seas of 4 to 6 feet with the highest
seas over the Gulf Stream. East to southeast winds generally 10-15
kt, up to 15-18 kt from time to time especially well offshore and
behind the diffuse afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A few showers beginning to move onshore along the southern
Treasure Coast will increase this morning, before moving inland
into the afternoon. VCTS for interior terminals after 18-19Z,
before activity moves into the western half of the peninsula into
the evening. A few strong storms will be possible, with gusty
winds and small hail. Coverage of convection today is forecast to
be low enough to preclude TEMPOs at this time, though they will
need to be monitored. VFR conditions prevail, with quick reductions
possible in stronger showers and storms. ESE winds increase to
10-15 kts this afternoon, with gusts 20-25 kts, especially along
the coast. Winds then slacken overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  66  82  66 /  40  10  30  10
MCO  83  68  85  67 /  50  10  30  10
MLB  80  69  81  69 /  40  10  20  10
VRB  81  68  82  68 /  40  10  20  10
LEE  85  66  86  66 /  40  10  30   0
SFB  85  66  85  66 /  50  10  30   0
ORL  84  67  85  67 /  50  10  30   0
FPR  82  67  82  67 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion