Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

302
FXUS62 KMLB 152322
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
622 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Windy conditions this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph behind
  a cold front.

- A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory are in effect for
  much of east central Florida tonight

- Temperatures rebound briefly on Saturday, before another strong
  cold front arrives Sunday afternoon, producing cold mornings and
  cool afternoons through at least Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...The earlier cold front has now worked its
way into South Florida. Clouds near and just behind the front will
diminish from north to south through the remainder of the afternoon,
as drier air advects into the area. CAMs suggest a few lingering,
light showers south of Orlando embedded within these clouds and
there are light returns on KMLB radar in this area prior to 1PM, so
have included ~20% chance through the end of the work day southward
into the Treasure Coast. Windy northwest winds have overperformed
behind the front, with widespread wind gusts up to 25-30 mph
observed and a few gusts to up to 40 mph. These winds will
continue through the daytime hours, then diminish this evening,
but will blow around unsecured objects. Such sudden wind gusts
can also make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles.

Tonight, clear skies and much drier air (dewpoints in the 20s) will
allow for temperatures to plummet after sunset. Freeze Warnings
remain in effect and now include all of mainland Brevard. Areas
within the Freeze Warning are forecast to see lows between 27-32
degrees. Elsewhere (the Brevard Barrier Island, Martin, and coastal
Indian River and St Lucie Counties), will be chilly, but should
remain above freezing. Low temperatures there are forecast in the
lower to mid-30s. It should be noted that some MOS guidance is a few
degrees lower than consensus, likely due to 925 mb winds decreasing
right around sunrise. However, have maintained the forecast near the
consensus, as tonight`s outliers have been noticeably (and
incorrectly) colder the last few cold weather events. Regardless,
temperatures will be well below normal tonight. 925 mb winds 20-
25+kt overnight will keep surface winds elevated, with wind chills
in the 20s for most of east central Florida. A Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect for all but coastal Martin County. This afternoon
is the time to prepare any sensitive plants and take action to keep
people and pets without adequate shelter warm. Use caution with any
space heaters.

Friday-Saturday...High pressure builds eastward across the peninsula
from the Gulf Friday into Saturday. Lingering dry and cooler air
will continue temperatures around 8-10 degrees below normal Friday
afternoon, before a brief return to near-normal temperatures
Saturday. Dry conditions prevail through Saturday afternoon, with
very light winds. However, the light winds look to be just onshore
enough to rebound dew points into the upper 30s and 40s for most
areas. Therefore, overnight lows will remain chilly Friday night
into Saturday morning, though not quite as cold as the night before.
Forecast temperatures are in the 40s for most locations, with upper
30s north of I-4. Patchy frost will be possible near Lake George,
where winds will be lightest and temperatures coldest. By Saturday
night, lows look to remain in the 50s, as cloud cover increases and
a few showers return ahead of the next cold front.

Sunday-Wednesday...A series of upper level troughs will traverse the
eastern US late this weekend into early next week. The next surface
cold front is forecast to pass through east central Florida on
Sunday, bringing another increase in winds. Northwesterly winds
Sunday afternoon look to increase to around 15 mph once again, with
gusts near 20 mph. While available moisture near and along the
front will be fairly modest, models have continued the trend of at
least a few, if not scattered, showers passing through northern
portions of the forecast area Sunday. Instability is forecast to
be minimal, so have not included any mention of thunderstorms. Dry
conditions then prevail through mid-week, despite a reinforcing
front forecast to push through east central Florida on Tuesday.

Below normal temperatures look to return through at least Tuesday,
thanks to the series of fronts. Models have trended slightly warmer
this cycle for Sunday night into Monday morning. However, cold
temperatures are forecast, regardless. Lows in the 30s return,
with near freezing temperatures once again for the normally colder
locations. Despite lighter winds compared to what is forecast
tonight, wind chills near and below 30 are once again expected for
nearly all but Martin County. Will need to monitor for additional
Cold Weather Advisories, Freeze Warnings, and possible frost. This
blast of cold air is forecast to persist longer to start next
week, with widespread cold temperatures in the 30s continuing
Monday night. Chilly daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
are expected. High pressure and nearer to normal temperatures are
forecast by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Hazardous boating conditions today behind a cold front. Strong
northwesterly winds 20-30 kts are forecast to become increasingly
northerly and continue through this evening, before diminishing
overnight. High pressure then builds into the area through
Saturday, with light winds. However, seas building to up to 7-10
ft in the Gulf Stream today will be slow to subside, remaining up
to 7 ft through much of Friday. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for all of the local waters.

A brief round of favorable conditions Saturday will deteriorate
Sunday, as another cold front moves through the local waters.
Isolated to scattered showers return Saturday night, then breezy
northwesterly winds develop into Sunday at around 20-25 kts.
Northerly winds, though lighter, will continue poor boating
conditions through early next week. Seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream
Sunday will linger at 5-6 ft through Tuesday. Additional Small
Craft Advisories are expected to end the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 622 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Today`s gusty winds diminish through the evening, becoming NW 5-12
KT overnight. Winds then become VRB and light on Friday, except NE
at the coast up to 9 KT in the afternoon. VFR with unlimited CIGs
are forecast through at least midday tomorrow. Perhaps some SCT at
the southern coastal sites in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions for portions of the area this
afternoon behind a cold front. Windy northwesterly winds, with
gusts up to 30-40 mph have been reported. Much drier air will
advect into the area through the remainder of the day, with min RH
falling to 35-40% north of I-4, prior to winds decreasing. Winds
will then diminish into this evening.

High pressure will produce light winds Friday and generally
onshore flow will help to recover min RH along the coast. However,
min RH over the interior is expected to fall to 25-35%. Increasing
moisture will lead to less sensitive conditions this weekend.
Then, a series of fronts will bring another round of breezy winds
and lower min RH early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  31  59  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  34  59  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  34  62  48  72 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  34  64  48  72 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  30  59  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  32  60  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  34  60  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  33  65  47  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion