Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

668
FXUS62 KMLB 141958
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- A strong cold front moves through the area tonight, bringing
  increasing chances for showers

- Below normal temperatures from Thursday onward with sub-
  freezing temperatures and wind chills Friday morning; a Freeze
  Watch remains in effect for much of the area

- Brief warmup on Saturday is ended by another cold front Sunday,
  producing cold mornings and cool afternoon temperatures through
  early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A line of showers has developed across
north Florida this afternoon, ahead of our approaching cold front.
Have added in a slight chance (~20%) for a few of these quick-
moving showers to impact areas along and north of I-4 this
afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the daytime hours.

Tonight, a strong cold front is forecast to begin to push
southward through the Florida peninsula, before moving into south
Florida Thursday morning. Shower chances increase along and ahead
of the front, with scattered showers increasing PoPs to around
60%. Limited instability is expected to preclude any storms, so
have kept the probability of thunder low (below 15%). Light
southwesterly winds to begin the evening will veer northwesterly
behind the front and increase. Winds closer to 10 mph near sunrise
will likely be a bit more elevated than normal for the time of
day. Temperatures will remain well above any cold thresholds
tonight, with morning lows in the 50s for most areas. Far northern
portions of the forecast area, where the front will pass through
first, are expected to dip into the upper 40s.

Thursday-Friday...The aforementioned front is forecast to bisect
the local area by sunrise. Scattered showers will remain possible
through most of the morning, before MUCH drier air (PWATs 0.2" or
less) advects into the area from north to south by the afternoon.
High pressure building eastward across the northern Gulf Coast
will lead to a tight pressure gradient Thursday. Northwesterly
winds are forecast around 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25-30 mph.
Daytime temperatures will begin a downward trend, struggling to
rise out of the 50s along and north of I-4, with 60s to the south.

All eyes then turn to Thursday night, when clear skies and dew
points in the upper teens to mid-20s allow overnight lows to
plunge into the upper 20s to lower 30s for most areas. The earlier
Freeze Watch remains unchanged due to the time frame. However,
would expect most, if not all, of the current Watch to be
upgraded to a Warning, depending on model guidance during
tonight`s forecast update. In fact, even the far northwestern
corner of Martin County currently has a 30% chance for peak low
temperatures of 32 degrees or less. However, confidence on the
duration of near-freezing temperatures prevented adding that area
to the Watch. Regardless, it will be cold area-wide, made to feel
even colder by north-northwesterly winds. While not as breezy as
Thursday afternoon, wind chills in the mid to upper 20s are
forecast. A Cold Weather Advisory is expected, though again have
not issued this advisory quite yet given the time frame.
Residents and visitors should develop a plan now to protect
plants, pipes, and people and pets without adequate shelter.

After a cold start, will see a limited warm up into Friday
afternoon. High pressure drifting over the Florida peninsula will
at least lead to light winds, though daytime highs will still
remain well below normal. Forecast high temperatures are in the
upper 50s to mid-60s once again, under clear skies. While light,
the placement of the high should generate enough onshore flow to
rebound dew points for at least coastal areas, helping to moderate
overnight lows into Friday night. While temperatures are expected
to remain chilly in the upper 30s to mid-40s, temperatures and
wind chills look to remain above criteria at this time. Will need
to watch the threat for some patchy frost in rural Lake and
Volusia Counties, though temperatures even there are a bit
borderline.

Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)...Broad mid level
troughing, centered over the Upper Midwest Saturday morning, will
begin to deepen and rotate eastward on Sunday. On Saturday,
temperatures recover into the 60s and low 70s, if only for one
day. Another cold front is forecast to approach on Sunday and move
through the area by Sunday night. While moisture looks limited
for this frontal passage, have introduced a slight (20%) chance
for a few showers near and north of Orlando Sunday afternoon.
Prepare for another cooldown to start next week, with lows Monday
morning again approaching the freezing mark in a number of
locations (rural interior and north of I-4), along with wind
chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds overhead
by Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing temps to climb back into the
60s and low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Poor boating conditions offshore this afternoon become hazardous
area-wide tonight into Thursday, as a cold front pushes through
the local waters. Westerly winds 15-20 kts will increase to 20-25
kts out of the northwest Thursday afternoon. This will cause seas
to build to up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf Stream by Thursday night.
Small Craft Advisories will go into effect late tonight. Scattered
showers will be possible along and ahead of the front.

Conditions will improve into the early portion of the weekend,
though seas will be slow to subside in the Gulf Stream and remain
poor to hazardous into Friday. However, high pressure and light
winds look to return seas to 2-3 ft by Saturday afternoon. Then,
yet another cold front Sunday is forecast to once again bring poor
to hazardous boating conditions into early next week. Additional
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs from earlier today are getting scoured out as west
winds increase, ocnly gusting 20-22 knots. This will produce a
slight crosswind impact at MCO. Considerable mid and high
cloudiness will persist and these cloud CIGs will be lowering
into the eve but remaining VFR. SHRA will encroach on northern
terminals this afternoon and eve so have covered that with VC
term. Coverage increases overnight with approach of strong cold
front. Have inserted TEMPO MVFR conds for SHRA MLB-SUA late
tonight. The front is forecast to cross MCO pre-dawn (08Z-09Z)
with prevailing MVFR CIGs and a WNW wind shift. On Thu, strong and
gusty WNW winds developing by 17Z with 16-18 knots gusting 26-28
knots all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Periods of sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are
forecast through the next week or so, as a series of cold fronts
move through the area. It begins Thursday afternoon, when much
drier air rapidly advects southward into east central Florida
behind the first front. A tightened pressure gradient and
northwesterly winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph, will create a
small window where min RH falls to 35-40% near and north of I-4,
while winds remain elevated. Also, breezy transport winds
producing very good to excellent dispersion could cause some
containment issues.

Lighter winds then return through Saturday, but min RH looks to
remain as low as 25-35% over the interior Friday afternoon. A
brief reprieve Saturday will be short-lived, before yet another
cold front Sunday brings more dry air and sensitive conditions
into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  60  30  60 /  60  20   0   0
MCO  54  59  33  60 /  60  30   0   0
MLB  53  65  34  63 /  60  40   0   0
VRB  54  66  34  65 /  50  50   0   0
LEE  50  58  30  59 /  60  20   0   0
SFB  51  60  31  61 /  60  20   0   0
ORL  53  60  33  61 /  60  30   0   0
FPR  54  67  34  65 /  40  60   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion