Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

529
FXUS62 KMLB 030740
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect
  for most of east central Florida through early this morning,
  except coastal Martin County where a Frost Advisory is in place.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the Gulf
  Stream waters and near inlets today before improving briefly
  into Wednesday.

- Temperatures return to near normal values Wednesday, then
  another cold front brings a chance for showers Thursday followed
  by cooler/colder than normal conditions into late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Currently...High pressure continues to settle in across the
Florida peninsula, with temperatures outside of more urban areas
already at or below the freezing mark. Some high clouds are moving
in from the west, but they don`t look too widespread yet to have
much effect on offsetting radiational cooling. Therefore
widespread freeze and frost looks on track through this morning,
with lows falling to the upper 20s to low 30s for many sites. A
Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for
most of east central FL through 9 AM this morning, except along
the Martin County coast where a Frost Advisory continues. Make
sure to dress warmly if heading outdoors through early this
morning.

Today-Tonight...High pressure across the area will shift gradually
offshore later today into tonight. Dry conditions will prevail with
lighter and more variable winds across the area today. After the
cold start, highs will be a little warmer than yesterday, but still
below normal in the 60s. There will be a little more cloud cover as
well, mostly in the form of passing higher cirrus clouds through the
morning, with some scattered cumulus clouds forming late morning and
into the afternoon across the Treasure Coast.

Temperatures will not be as cold tonight into early Wednesday
morning, but will still be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to low
40s for many locations. Lows in the mid 30s and patchy/areas of
frost are forecast across the normally colder areas NW of I-4, but
may see some patchy frost across more rural inland areas south of
Orlando as well that fall below the 40 degree mark. For now will
hold off on the issuance of any Frost Advisories and let day shift
take one final look at any temperature trends in the model guidance.
However, best potential for a Frost Advisory would be for northern
Lake and inland Volusia counties tonight through early Wednesday
morning.

Wednesday-Friday...Highs will finally climb back to near normal
values, in the 70s, Wednesday afternoon. However, this will
unfortunately be short-lived, as another cold front moves through
the area Thursday. Ahead of an along the front, isolated to
scattered showers will develop (PoPs increasing to 30-50%) into
Wednesday night-Thursday. Instability still looks too low for any
lighting storm mention. While the rainfall will certainly be welcome
to drought stricken Florida, rainfall totals will unfortunately be
meager, with most likely amounts around a quarter of an inch or
less. Drier and colder conditions then return behind the passing
front. However, low temperatures will not be as extreme as what we
saw with the previous strong front. Min temps are currently forecast
to fall to the mid to upper 30s for much of the area Thursday night
into Friday morning, with a 30-50% chance for freezing temperatures
NW of I-4 and across rural inland areas south of Orlando. Temps are
then forecast to remain below normal to end the week, but lows
Friday night look to recover slightly, but still remain chilly in
the low to mid 40s.

Saturday-Monday...Another front moves through the area early into
the weekend, but this boundary looks to remain dry and will be much
weaker. Highs currently forecast to be closer to normal, in the 70s,
with overnight lows still below normal, in the 40s, through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure across Florida will shift offshore
into tonight, keeping dry conditions and below normal temperatures
in place. N/NW winds up to 10-15 knots this morning will weaken and
become somewhat variable into the afternoon and into tonight, with
speeds 5-10 knots. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous
across the Gulf Stream, as lingering swells up to 6-7 feet are
slower to subside. Hazardous boating conditions will also exist
near inlets during the outgoing tide today due to long period
swells of 4-5 feet with a period of 12 seconds. The Small Craft
Advisory over the Treasure Coast waters and offshore of Brevard
County has been extended through 1 PM this afternoon. Small craft
should also exercise caution over the offshore waters of Volusia
County through early afternoon for seas up to 6 feet. Seas up to 6
feet will then linger into the evening over the Gulf Stream
waters south of the Cape before falling to 3-5 feet overnight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Another cold front moves into the Southeast
U.S. Wednesday and will eventually push through the waters on
Thursday, with scattered showers developing ahead of and with the
front into Wednesday night/Thursday. However, no lightning storms
are currently forecast with this frontal passage. Boating conditions
will continue to gradually improve into the daytime Wednesday as
winds eventually become S/SW and speeds remain below 15 knots, with
seas falling to 2-4 feet. However, boating conditions again
deteriorate, becoming poor to hazardous into Wednesday night and
Thursday as front approaches and moves through the waters. W/NW
winds increase to 15-25 knots, building seas to 6-9 feet mainly
across the Gulf Stream through Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. Boating conditions then remain poor to hazardous Friday into
Saturday as another dry front approaches and eventually pushes
through the waters into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1216 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Dry VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period.
Winds become light/VRB as the center of high pressure moves over
the Florida peninsula. A weak/diffuse east coast sea breeze shifts
winds onshore around 10 kts at coastal terminals in the afternoon
and evening, but only contributes to VRB wind direction at inland
terminals. Winds become light/VRB again at coastal terminals
after 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure center across Florida will shift offshore later today
into tonight, with ridge axis remaining across central Florida
through midweek and keeping dry conditions in place through at least
daytime Wednesday. Winds will be mostly light and variable (5 mph or
less), with a weak E/NE flow around 5-7 mph developing along the
coast in the afternoon. Critically low Min RH values continue today,
around 25-35% for most of the area, except 40-50% along the Treasure
Coast. Smoke dispersion values will be Poor to Fair for much of east
central Florida today due to the light surface and transport winds.

On Wednesday, high pressure will push seaward as another cold front
pushes into the deep South. Winds will increase out of the south-
southwest 5-10 mph with slightly stronger transport winds. Combined
with increased mixing heights, the dispersion will improve to Very
Good to Excellent. Min RH values will still fall to critical values,
mainly across the interior, as low as the low to mid 30s.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tuesday, February 3rd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 3-Feb   29 1935  50
Leesburg (LEE)      3-Feb   30 1980  50
Sanford (SFB)       3-Feb   32 1976  51
Orlando (MCO)       3-Feb   24 1917  51
Melbourne (MLB)     3-Feb   35 2021  52
Vero Beach (VRB)    3-Feb   32 1976  53
Fort Pierce (FPR)   3-Feb   26 1917  52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  39  72  46 /   0   0   0  50
MCO  64  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  40
MLB  64  43  72  49 /   0   0   0  30
VRB  65  43  74  47 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  63  41  72  45 /   0   0   0  50
SFB  64  41  74  48 /   0   0   0  50
ORL  64  44  73  49 /   0   0   0  50
FPR  65  42  74  47 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion