Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

984
FXUS62 KMLB 100743
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

- A high risk of rip currents and rough surf persists at area
  beaches through mid-week, along with lingering poor boating
  conditions in the Gulf Stream and near inlets.

- Drought conditions and lower humidity values through mid-week
  combine to produce fire sensitive conditions.

- Above normal temperatures return this week with any notable rain
  chances likely holding off towards next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Current-Tonight...Will monitor for patchy (dense) fog again early
this morning, but confidence one way or the other remains low.
Greatest threat could be south of Orlando. With very dry air
above the surface, suspect most of anything that forms will be
fairly shallow. However, localized visibilities of a mile or less
will be possible. Else, high pressure continues to remain in
control of ECFL weather, promoting a weak pressure gradient with
light winds. Wind component does gradually become SSW/SW 5-10 mph
today with a later afternoon sea breeze along the Space/Treasure
coasts with minimal push inland. The airmass remains very dry with
precip not mentioned in the forecast. The warming trend continues
with highs in the 70s areawide, warmest values W of I-95 and
cannot rule out an 80 degree reading or two. Overnight lows near
seasonal in the U40s to L50s for most. Light SW winds tonight
generally 5 mph or less.

At the beaches, a HIGH risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening
rip currents continues through mid-week due to a persistent long
period swell. Rough surf is also present. Do not let the warmer
conditions catch you off guard. Entering the chilly water is
discouraged!

Wed-Fri...High pressure slowly weakens and is forced southward with
the approach of a weak front on Thu. This boundary may linger most
notably off of the coast, but is expected to become diffuse thru
late week. For now we keep conditions mostly dry over land with
some shower activity across the local coastal waters, though will
have to watch for some potential activity along the coast on Fri.
Suspect we will see a return to overnight/early morning patchy
(dense) fog formation for both Thu/Fri mornings. Highs continue
mostly above normal in the 70s and perhaps a few L80s possible -
generally south of Orlando and inland from the coast toward Lake
Okee. Overnight lows continue to trend a little warmer and mainly
in the 50s.

Sat-Mon...Robust shortwave troughing over Texas early in the period
will drive our next cold front through the area late Sun or into
early Mon as the trend here is for slowing this system down a bit.
Moisture gradually surges ahead of the approaching front, with
models trying to spit out some light precip chances (20pct) on Sat
night - generally I-4 corridor, then higher chances (30-60pct)
through the day on Sun and Sun night. Depending on timing, shower
chances may linger into Mon. Limited instability keeps thunder
mention out of the forecast for now. We will likely see
breezy/gusty winds on Sun ahead of the approaching boundary.
Temperatures continue above climo this weekend ahead of the front,
with values then forecast to only fall back to more normal numbers
early next week behind this boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Will likely see some 6ft seas in the Gulf Stream
today for our offshore legs south from the Cape so may have to
continue to carry Cautionary Statements here at least to start the
forecast. Back down to 3-5 ft areawide by late afternoon-
tonight. A general offshore wind component early with forecast
directional component expect to veer southerly into the afternoon,
with an onshore breeze later this afternoon along the
Space/Treasure coasts. Winds pick up a bit away from the coast
tonight 11-16 kts and mainly out of the SW/W. Long period swells,
12-14sec continue over the near shore waters and continue to
produce poor to hazardous boating conditions near inlets during
the outgoing tide (twice daily).

Wed-Sat...A weak front moves southward into the local waters on Thu.
This boundary remains forecast to stall across the local waters and
then become diffuse thru late week. This will maintain ISOLD-SCT
shower activity Wed night-Sat, with highest PoPs over the open Atlc.
Offshore winds continue generally below 15 kts and will veer NW/N on
Thu, becoming more light/variable into Thu night and light onshore
again Fri aftn into Sat. The only exception to wind speeds is Wed
night when they may approach (briefly) 15-20 kts well offshore Cape
northward. Seas 3-5 feet Wed fall to 2-4 feet Wed night-Thu
and continuing into Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1230 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Light and variable winds persist at all terminals this morning,
forecast to become more southwesterly after 15Z. Dry conditions
are anticipated today, and VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. There is a low chance for some patchy fog development this
morning, but there is low confidence in where and when exactly it
will develop, so will continue to monitor and amend as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

High pressure will continue to influence the weather across east
central FL through mid-week and will keep southwest winds relatively
light, generally around 5-10 mph. Offshore winds will become onshore
along the coast during this afternoon, and then are forecast to
remain offshore through the day Wednesday as the flow strengthens
slightly. The tail end of a weak front will move into central
Florida on Thursday. The airmass remains mostly dry, with near to
below critical Min RH values forecast, especially this afternoon.
Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as 25-35% across the
interior and along the coast of Volusia and northern Brevard
counties this afternoon. On Wednesday lowest RH values around 35-40%
are forecast inland and generally south of Orlando. Smoke dispersion
will be Fair to Generally Good today, becoming Very Good to
Excellent for much of the area on Wednesday, and mostly Fair to
perhaps Generally Good on Thursday.

Patchy fog, producing localized visibilities of a mile or less
will be possible early this morning. Fog development may become
increasingly likely as we head into Thursday/Friday mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  50  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  79  54  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  76  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  77  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  78  51  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  79  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  79  54  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  77  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion