Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

013
FXUS62 KMLB 102327
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
627 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

- A high risk of rip currents and rough surf persists at area
  beaches through mid-week, along with lingering poor boating
  conditions in the Gulf Stream and near inlets.

- Drought conditions and lower humidity values through mid-week
  combine to produce fire sensitive conditions.

- Above normal temperatures return this week with any notable rain
  chances likely holding off towards next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today-tonight...High pressure will remain in control over the
Florida peninsula today as it slowly begins to shift southward.
Locally, light and variable winds will become SSW/SW and increase
to 5-10 mph by early afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is
forecast to form along the Space and Treasure Coasts this
afternoon and push onshore into early evening, with the sea breeze
pushing farther inland across the Treasure Coast and remaining
closer to I-95 across the Space Coast. The dry airmass remains in
place, resulting in no mentionable rain chances continuing across
east central Florida. There is a High risk of rip currents at all
area beaches today. Entering the chilly surf is discouraged!

Temperatures will remain on a warming trend today, with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 70s areawide. Overnight lows will
generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to slowly shift southward and eventually further out to
sea as a weak front moves into north Florida Thursday. This front
is then forecast to stall across north Florida and become diffuse
through Friday. Conditions will remain dry on Wednesday, with rain
chances returning into late week. Models are indicating there is
a low (20 percent) chance of showers from Leesburg to Orlando to
Kissimmee on Thursday, and areawide on Friday (with the greatest
potential along the coast). Patchy fog will once again be possible
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and late Thursday
night into Friday morning, mainly from Lake Kissimmee to Daytona
north and westward. Slight warming trend continues with
temperatures forecast to be above normal each day. Afternoon highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the
interior, and low to mid 70s along the coast each day. Overnight
lows will mainly be in the 50s each night.

Saturday-Monday...Upper level trough over Texas on Saturday will
steadily push eastward across the Deep South and over the Florida
peninsula through early next week. This will result in the next
frontal boundary moving across east central Florida late in the
period. There remains uncertainty with this frontal system as
models disagree on timing of the front. The GFS remains the slower
solution with the front pushing through more during the day on
Monday, and the the ECM having the front push through Sunday night
into Monday. Moisture ahead and along the front will spread
across east central Florida, resulting in rain chances continuing
through the period. There is a low (20 percent chance) of showers
Saturday, mainly along the coast, before increasing to a medium
(30-50 percent) chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night areawide.
Showers will linger through the day on Monday, with 20-30 percent
chance of rain areawide. These rain chances on Monday may go up if
the front continues to trend slower. As of right now, there is a
low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms Sunday night through
Monday as instability increases from the shortwave energy
associated with the trough/front, as well as daytime heating.

Breezy and gusty southwest winds ahead of the front on Sunday will
decrease and turn north/northwest behind the front on Monday.
Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above normal for this time
of year ahead of the front, with temperatures becoming more
seasonable behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions continue today in the
Gulf Stream from Cape Canaveral southward for seas up to 6 ft.
Long period swells (12-13 seconds) are forecast to continue into
tonight, leading to poor to hazardous boating conditions near
inlets during the outgoing tides. Thus have carried cautionary
headlines in the offshore waters from Brevard southward through
the evening, as well as near inlets through tonight. Seas will
then subside to 3-5ft areawide tonight. Winds have veered more
southerly this afternoon, with the east coast sea breeze forecast
to develop along the Space and Treasure Coasts later this
afternoon, shifting the winds onshore. Winds then shift SW/W
tonight with winds increasing to around 15 KT.

Wednesday-Saturday...A frontal boundary will push southward
across north Florida and adjacent waters on Thursday, stalling and
becoming diffuse through Friday. There is a low to medium (20-40
percent) chance of showers across the local waters Wednesday night
through the rest of the period. Offshore winds on Wednesday will
generally be below 15 KT before veering NW/N on Thursday. Winds
then become light and onshore by Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Wind speeds may approach 15-20 KT briefly Wednesday night well
offshore Cape Canaveral. Seas 3-5 ft Wednesday will subside to 2-4
ft on Thursday and continuing into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 608 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all East Central Florida terminals
through the TAF period. Conditions tonight less favorable for fog
development as cloud cover at or above 15 KFT increases and a
light/VRB breeze lingers, but can`t completely rule out some
patchy fog south of KMLB producing TEMPO MVFR-IFR VIS reductions
between 08Z-13Z (10% or less chance). Winds become WSW 5-10 kts
Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak front, forecast to reach
the area Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Winds will becoming onshore this afternoon along the coast as the
sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Wind speeds will remain 8-12
mph with gusts up to 20 mph. The airmass remains mostly dry, with
near to below critical Min RH values forecast, especially this
afternoon. Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as 25-35%
across the interior and along the coast of Volusia and northern
Brevard counties this afternoon. On Wednesday lowest RH values
around 35-40% are forecast inland and generally south of Orlando.
Winds will shift offshore while remaining around 8-12 mph. Smoke
dispersion will be Fair to Generally Good today, becoming Very
Good to Excellent for much of the area on Wednesday. These will
continue fire sensitivity conditions through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  75  55  70 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  54  77  57  78 /   0   0   0  20
MLB  51  75  54  73 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  51  77  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  51  76  56  75 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  52  77  56  75 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  54  77  58  76 /   0   0   0  20
FPR  51  77  51  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion