Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

838
FXUS62 KMLB 242319
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
719 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- A high risk of rip currents exists at Volusia and northern
  Brevard County beaches today, with a moderate risk farther
  south. Entering the surf north of Cape Canaveral is strongly
  discouraged.

- Showers and lightning storms return today from north to south,
  continuing tonight into Wednesday. A strong storm or two and
  locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Drier late week before another cold front arrives Saturday,
  bringing more showers, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A weakening front moving southward
through Central Florida brings higher moisture and a focus for
development of showers and lightning storms, though a couple
competing factors are decreasing confidence where/when the highest
chances will be. While PWATs near the frontal boundary are up to
around 1.5", mostly cloudy to overcast low-level stratus near the
boundary are undercutting daytime heating and destabilization.
Showers and lightning storms have developed across the northern
Atlantic waters on convergence lines over the Gulf Stream, but
closer to shore deep convection has so far struggled early this
afternoon. Best chances for showers and lightning storms over land
(30-50%) will be along the inland moving east coast sea breeze
south of the stratus, as the frontal boundary and subsequent storm
boundaries trigger development, starting near the Volusia/Brevard
coasts, and working southwestward towards the Orlando Metro.
Farther south, plenty of mostly clear skies for heating, but PWATs
drop to 1.1" or less, and rain chances decrease to 20% or less
from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee south. Going into tonight, the
front and associated higher moisture effectively stall across
Central Florida as southward progression slows. Winds behind the
front become quickly become northeasterly to easterly, which could
push showers and lightning storms from the Atlantic waters
onshore. Confidence where and if this happens remains low, and
this is reflected by broad 30-50% PoPs across Volusia and Brevard,
into adjacent portions of the inland counties.

The environment is conditionally favorable for storms that mange
to develop to become strong, producing cloud to ground lightning,
gusty winds, and small hail, mainly in the afternoon. Most places
will receive rainfall amounts of 0.25" or less, but lucky spots
could get locally higher amounts of 1-2". Models also continue to
show potential for weak organization of deep convection tonight
over the Atlantic waters along the residual frontal boundary, but
still disagree where and if it will happen. Should a band of
heavy rainfall develop and move towards the coast, there is very
low potential (10% or less chance) for rainfall amounts over 4"
along the coastal corridor.

A High Risk of rip currents continues at the beaches from the
Cape north, including the Volusia/Daytona Beach coast, and
entering the water is highly discouraged. There is a moderate risk
of rip currents to the south, and residents and visitors should
check in with life guards before entering the water. Never swim
alone. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s near to above normal.
Overnight lows in the 60 above normal.

Wednesday-Thursday...What`s left of the frontal boundary washes
out as it oozes from Central to South Florida. The higher moisture
associated with front will have overspread much of East Central
Florida, supporting continued isolated to scattered showers and
storms (chances 30-50%) Wednesday. Once again most locations will
get less than 0.25" of rain, but a lucky few might see 1-2" in a
heavier shower or storm. Overcast skies knock temperatures back a
couple degrees to the M70-L80s, and also limit potential for
lightning storms. Rain chances decrease Thursday as the front
dissipates, but a low (20%) chance will linger across portions of
the area. Highs warm back to the U70s-L80s as high pressure builds
and light onshore flow persists.

Friday-Monday (Previous Discussion)...Mid-level ridging expands
eastward from the desert southwest and Gulf Coast late in the week
with surface ridging briefly settling over Florida. Dry
conditions are forecast Friday as temperatures climb into the 80s
areawide. Ridging weakens Saturday as another cold front, slightly
stronger this time, approaches central Florida. This frontal
passage marks our next chance for rain (perhaps an isolated storm)
with the higher chances focused closer to the coast and moreso
across southern locations by Sunday. As the front pushes south
Saturday into Sunday, northeast winds become breezy to gusty.
Sunday appears particularly gusty (30+ mph at times). Overall,
rain chances decrease into early next week, though some solutions
maintain enough moisture within the onshore flow that coastal
showers are still possible. Saturday is warm ahead of the front
and then temperatures slide back into the 70s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Boating conditions quickly deteriorate
from north to south today as northeasterly to easterly winds
increase to 15-25 kts (highest north of the Cape) behind a
weakening front slowly pushing through Central Florida and the
local Atlantic waters, causing seas to rapidly build up to 12 feet
in the Gulf Stream and 5-8 ft closer to shore. Scattered
lightning storms are also occurring near the frontal boundary,
some of which could become strong and produce wind gusts over 35
kts, locally higher seas, frequent cloud to water lightning, and
small hail.

Wednesday-Saturday...Boating conditions gradually improve but
remain poor to hazardous Wednesday for lingering seas as the front
stalls/washes out. Easterly winds 10-20 kts in the morning,
highest to the north, diminish to 5-15 kts in the afternoon. Seas
6-9 ft in the Gulf Stream and 5-7 ft closer to shore in the
morning settle to 4-6 ft in the early overnight. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will continue. Generally favorable
boating conditions by Thursday, but some chop could persist
especially in the Gulf Stream. Some isolated showers/storms
possible Thursday, then dry conditions Friday. Boating conditions
deteriorate again Saturday as another, stronger cold front
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A bit of a low confidence forecast over the next 24 hours. A weak
frontal boundary has settled into the central FL peninsula and will
become quasi-stationary overnight. Highest moisture will lie in
close proximity to it. As convection wanes a bit this evening,
greatest chances tonight will be along the boundary and potentially
across Volusia/N. Brevard coasts. Some locally heavy rainfall is
possible, but exact locations are difficult to pinpoint. Generally
N/NE winds, but could be more light/variable across the Treasure
Coast south/westward. Speeds could remain a bit elevated/gusty along
the Volusia coast. Another issue will be MVFR/IFR CIGs. Lowest
ceilings likely near/NW of KMLB overnight. Patchy fog development
is possible late tonight into early Wed morning, with greatest
chances south of a KISM/KMLB line. Will make best effort with
prevailing, "Vicinity" wording and TEMPOs, relying on amendments
as necessary.

On Wed, the front continues to weaken, but a residual mess will
remain with winds becoming NE/E 10-15 kts (some higher gusts) and
considerable to mostly cloudy skies with a mix of VFR/MVFR CIGs. SCT
showers/storms will exist due to ample moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  76  62  79 /  50  40  10  10
MCO  66  79  64  83 /  30  40  10  20
MLB  65  78  64  79 /  30  50  20  20
VRB  62  80  63  80 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  63  79  63  83 /  20  30  10  10
SFB  65  78  63  82 /  40  40  10  10
ORL  66  79  64  82 /  30  40  10  10
FPR  61  80  62  80 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion