Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

403
FXUS62 KMLB 110701
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions, including life-
  threatening rip currents, continue through the weekend even as
  surf appears to improve.

- Patchy fog may develop north of I-4 early this morning.
  Isolated onshore moving showers remain possible again today,
  mainly south of Melbourne. Otherwise dry conditions.

- Warm and dry next week as high pressure builds over East Central
  Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today-Tonight...Beach goers should take heed, surf will appear
more inviting than previous days, but numerous, strong, life-
threatening rip currents will be present, and entering this dangerous
surf is not advised. Boating conditions in the local Atlantic
waters also remain poor to hazardous.

High pressure over the Southeast will shift eastward while being
reinforced by another surface high from the northern US, building
a deep surface high over the eastern seaboard. Locally, winds
shift more east-southeasterly and even drier air (PWATs down to
0.60-0.80") advects to the Florida peninsula. Could see some
patchy morning fog north of the I-4 corridor, but unless winds go
calm dense fog is not favored. The pressure gradient loosens just
a bit, but will still see breezy/gusty conditions in the afternoon
as onshore flow is enhanced by the sea breeze, with gusts 20-25
mph. The marine layer over the Atlantic waters remains deep enough
to support isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs 10-20%), but a
sharp inversion at the top of the layer and very dry air above
will inhibit deep convection, pretty much shutting the door on
chances for lightning or heavy rainfall. Best chances for a light
shower south of the Cape in the relatively higher moisture, but
can`t rule out a sprinkle to the north. Otherwise, dry conditions.
A degree or two warmer than yesterday, but afternoon highs still
in the U70s-L80s. Overnight lows in the U50s-U60s.

Sunday-Monday...Surface high pressure building over the eastern
seaboard is pushed into the open Atlantic by a low pressure system
swinging across the northern US and southern Canada, but the
ridge axis stays anchored near North Florida thanks to a dome of
high pressure building over the Gulf and Florida. Winds remain
onshore (easterly), becoming breezy/gusty in the afternoon behind
the sea breeze, though a bit less so on Monday than previous days.
Moisture subtly decreases a bit more (PWATs 0.50-0.70"), and
combined with increased subsidence from the ridge aloft even the
marine layer won`t be able to support more than an isolated shower
on convergence lines over the Atlantic waters, resulting in
mostly dry conditions (PoPs 10% or less). Subsidence and more
sunshine keeps the gradual warming trend going, with afternoon
highs in the U70s-L80s Sunday increasing to the U70s-M80s Monday.
Overnight lows remain in the U50s-U60s. As overnight winds become
lighter and the ridge builds overhead, conditions become more
favorable for late night/early morning fog. A High risk of rip
currents will continue through at least Sunday.

Tuesday-Friday...Pattern becomes stagnant through much of the
coming week with ridging over the Gulf and Florida, and the axis
of surface high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic extending
towards the Florida peninsula. Dry conditions persist, and
temperatures will continue to crawl upwards, with highs reaching
the L-U80s Wednesday. Model solutions begin to diverge Thursday
onward, as the ridge aloft is flattened by less of eastward
movement of a trough over the western US (as models were
depicting 24 hours ago), and more of a passing impulse of energy.
Locally models remain in good agreement for Florida to remain
under the influence of the surface high over the subtropical
Atlantic, and weather systems associated with troughs/shortwaves
to remain north of us, but how far south the axis of the high
slides in response to the passing upper level energy is unsure. As
a result there is some uncertainty how warm ECFL will get
Thursday and Friday, and whether rain chances return late in the
week if the axis drops south enough to drive some higher moisture
from the tropics to Florida. Well above normal temperatures are
expected regardless, and could touch the 90s towards the weekend
if the forecast trends warmer. Rain chances remain out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today-Monday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist
across most of the local Atlantic waters as seas very slowly
subside from 5-8 ft early this morning to 4-7 ft early Sunday
morning, where they remain into Monday before continuing to
settle. High pressure building over the eastern seaboard and
western Atlantic maintains onshore (northeast to east) winds 10-20
kts, highest south of the Cape. Have been able to pair back parts
of the Small Craft Advisory, with the Volusia nearshore cancelled
at 2 AM, the Brevard nearshore now dropping off at 10 AM, and the
Volusia offshore now dropping off at 4 PM. However, small craft
should continue to exercise caution for seas up to 6 ft. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for the remaining Brevard
offshore and Treasure Coast nearshore/offshore legs through at
least 8 AM Monday morning for seas 7-8 ft in the Gulf Stream.
Isolated showers possible, but mostly dry conditions.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Boating conditions in the local Atlantic
waters finally improve as high pressure settles over the
subtropical Atlantic, with the ridge axis extending back towards
the Florida peninsula while slowly slipping south towards Central
Florida. Easterly to southeasterly winds ease to 5-15 kts and seas
settle to 3-5 ft. Isolated showers on converge lines can`t be
ruled out, but otherwise dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions forecast to largely continue through today and into
tonight. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, with a breezy onshore
flow again developing late morning into the afternoon, with E/NE
winds 12-15 knots, gusting to 20-22 knots. A few very light showers
and sprinkles near KSUA should diminish overnight, but another round
of isolated onshore moving showers will again be possible today,
mainly near to south of KMLB. Brief MVFR conditions may result
from any of this activity, but with rain chances no more than 20%
will only carry VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  62  78  63 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  80  62  81  63 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  77  66  78  67 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  78  64  78  65 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  82  60  83  61 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  80  60  82  62 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  81  61  82  63 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  78  63  79  64 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion