Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

405
FXUS62 KMLB 220651
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Dry conditions persist through Monday before rain chances
  increase as a front approaches the Florida peninsula Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Conditions dry out once again late in the week.

- A High Risk of rip currents continues at area beaches today.
  Residents and those visiting on spring break are strongly
  encouraged to avoid entering the water!

- Afternoon highs will remain above normal through the forecast
  period.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will be present across east
  central Florida through Monday due to critical RH values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today-Monday...High pressure across the area today into early this
week will keep warm and dry conditions in place. Highs will reach
the low to mid 80s each afternoon, with overnight lows in the 50s.
Winds will be offshore out of the W/NW around 10 mph, with the east
coast sea breeze switching winds onshore each afternoon, mainly
along the coast of Brevard County southward. Lighter boundary layer
winds and mostly clear skies will favor patchy fog through early
this morning and again late tonight through early Monday morning,
especially near to northwest of the I-4 corridor.

Lingering east-northeast swells will maintain a High Risk for rip
currents at the beaches of east central Florida today. Entering the
hazardous surf is strongly discouraged!

Tuesday-Wednesday...A weak front moves southward into the area
Tuesday, with this boundary stalling and fading across the region
through midweek as winds become onshore. Increasing moisture will
accompany this boundary, with PW values rising to 1.3-1.5 inches,
leading to isolated to scattered shower development across east
central FL. Rain chances will largely be limited to areas north
of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast into Tuesday afternoon
(up to 20-50%), and then will range from 20-40% across all of
east central Florida Wednesday. There is still around a 20-30%
chance for thunderstorms, mainly into the afternoon/evening hours
as model guidance still shows CAPE values increasing to around
500-1000 J/kg each day. Overall shear profiles look weak, but cold
temps aloft (-12 to -14C at 500mb) may allow for a small hail
threat should any isolated stronger storms develop. Rainfall
amounts are forecast to remain rather meager, and therefore not
providing much relief from the ongoing drought. Totals look to
largely remain below a half inch. However, locally higher totals
will be possible, especially from any storms that develop.

A slight drop in max temps should occur from the arrival of the
front, mainly across northern portions of east central Florida
Tuesday and Wednesday, but temps will overall remain above normal.
Highs will still range from the low to mid 80s for much of the area,
except upper 70s along the Volusia County coast. Overnight lows will
be mild in the low to mid 60s for many locations.

Thursday-Saturday...As front fades, ridge axis of high pressure
across the Atlantic builds back south across the area into late
week. This will lead to mostly dry and continued warmer than normal
conditions, with highs rising even further to the mid to upper 80s
across the interior on Friday. Another front looks to build
southward into the area this weekend, but there remains some slight
timing differences between the GFS/ECMWF this far out. Temperatures
currently forecast to remain above normal in the 80s on Saturday,
with just a slight chance (20%) for showers and storms into Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today-Monday...More favorable boating conditions and dry weather
pattern forecast across the coastal waters today into tomorrow, with
high pressure across the area. W/NW winds up to 10-15 knots in the
morning gradually become S/SE in the afternoon/evening as the east
coast sea breeze forms each day. Winds then return to an offshore
flow overnight. Seas range from 3-5 feet today and 2-4 feet Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate as we head into
the middle of the work week. A front will push southward into the
coastal waters Tuesday, with W/NW winds around 10-15 knots in the
morning becoming onshore into the afternoon and increasing up to 15-
25 knots north of the front (mainly north of the Cape) from late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Seas will build from a long
E/NE fetch from high pressure north of the front, producing poor to
hazardous boating conditions across much of the waters through
Tuesday night into Wednesday, as wave heights increase up to 6-10
feet. As onshore winds weaken to 10-15 knots Wednesday and to around
10 knots Thursday, seas will also gradually decrease, falling to 4-6
feet Wednesday night and 3-5 feet Thursday.

Shower and storm chances increase with the arrival of the front,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast from Tuesday
afternoon (mainly north of Sebastian Inlet) and continuing from
Tuesday night through Wednesday/Wednesday evening (across much of
the coastal waters).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Guidance continues to show about a 20-30 percent prob for MVFR VIS
at LEE, with 10-20 percent probs everywhere else along and north
of I-4. Thus, have kept the TEMPO for MVFR VIS at LEE starting at
09Z. Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions through the TAF period.
Light W-NW winds will increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning Sunday.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop after 17Z,
mainly from KMLB-KSUA with winds veering SE-SSE at around 10 KT.
Winds then become light and variable once again by early evening
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast to continue today and
Monday. High pressure will remain across the area area leading to
dry and warmer than normal conditions. Offshore winds will increase
up to around 10 mph each day, and will then become onshore along the
coast in the afternoon where the east coast sea breeze is able to
form (mainly south of Volusia County today and south of the Cape on
Monday). While wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph, a
very dry airmass will allow afternoon Min RH values to fall to
critical values, between 25 to 35 percent for much of the area both
today and Monday. Afternoon smoke dispersion values are forecast to
be fair along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee today and
very good to very good northward. By Monday, good to very good smoke
dispersion values are forecast for much of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  85  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  84  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  86  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  86  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion