Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

057
FXUS62 KMLB 042049
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
349 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

- A good chance for showers late tonight into Thursday associated
  with a cold front. Any rain will be welcome but most locations
  will see amounts of a quarter inch or less.

- Another shot of cold air Thursday night with widespread lows in
  the 30s with a wind chill.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions Thu afternoon behind the front
  and Friday with gusty winds and low humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Tonight/Thu...Cold front currently over the western FL panhandle
will continue SE and bring scattered to numerous showers across
the area late tonight and Thu. Brief downpours will occur in some
areas with most receiving between one quarter inch or less of
rain. A few locations could see a little more. Any rain will be
beneficial as this is the only rain chance in the next 7 days (at
least). Clearing will occur from NW to SE Thu afternoon as gusty
W/NW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph advect drier air
across the area. The cold advection will counteract the increasing
sunshine so max temps will hold in the low to mid 60s.

Thu night...Cold with min temps in the mid to upper 30s across
most of the area. A NW wind will produce wind chills in the upper
20s/near 30F. Have pre-coordinated with WFO Tampa and we agree
that a Cold Weather Advisory is likely for most of our forecast
areas. There is confidence that any freezing temperatures will be
limited to the Ocala Forest in north Lake county and far NW
Volusia. Where winds go light, esp those wind protected areas,
patchy frost will occur.

Fri...Breezy, cool and dry with below normal max temperatures
holding in the low to mid 60s despite full sunshine. Winds should
become gusty out of the west 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Not as
cold Friday night ahead of a second front with lows in the low to
mid 40s. A persistent breeze will produce a wind chill but
criteria for Cold Weather Adv (30F or below) should not be met.

Sat-Tue (modified)...Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to
the mid 60s Volusia coast to the lower 70s Okeechobee. Then a
backdoor front pushes S/SW across the area Saturday night. There
doesn`t look like a lot of cold air behind this front which makes
sense since the wind shift behind this front is from the NE, off
the Atlc. Seasonable temperatures return Monday afternoon,
becoming slightly above normal Tue as dry conditions persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Tonight/Thu...Southwest to west winds will pick up tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. Pressure gradient will support 15-20
knots well offshore late tonight so have headlined a Caution
there. The front will sweep across the waters during the morning
and midday Thu with deteriorating boating conditions. W/NW to NW
winds will increase behind the front 20 knots nearshore and
20-25 knots offshore with higher gusts. Seas will remain 2-3 FT
nearshore and 4 FT offshore tonight then build 5-7 FT offshore by
late Thu. Seas become fully developed in the Gulf Stream Thu night
at 8-9 FT. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the local
Atlc waters beginning at 10 AM Thu.

Fri-Mon...Winds and seas decrease/subside some on Friday but
remain poor to hazardous, esp in the Gulf Stream. Do not
anticipate an Advisory for the nearshore waters during Fri but
another surge of NW winds overspreads the waters Fri night. Have
continued the Advisory over the offshore waters Fri and may need
to temporarily expand it back to the nearshore waters for a time
Fri night. Conditions will begin to improve Sat but Gulf Stream
conditions will remain hazardous and the Advisory continues thru
at least Sat. Winds become NE and decrease Sunday around 10 knots
but seas will be slow to subside. Offshore flow 10 knots
redevelops Monday and seas will finally fall below 6 FT in the
Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1214 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

MCO/DAB IMPACTS:
- IFR CIGs with scattered rain showers on Thursday morning,
  between 10-16Z.

Quiet conditions continue this afternoon with light southwest
winds, except E/SE at the coast from MLB southward this afternoon.
VFR thru much of the night. Cold front approaches Orlando area
terminals on Thu AM, sweeping SE through the day. With it, a
period of showers and reduced CIGs are anticipated. Probabilities
of IFR CIGs are between 40-60% for MCO/DAB in the morning hours.
Winds turn NW behind the front, with gusts to around 20 KT in the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions continue this afternoon Orlando
northward as min RHs fall near critical values 35-40% with Very Good
to Excellent dispersion values.

Scattered to numerous showers will push through the area late
tonight through Thursday afternoon associated with a cold frontal
passage. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be a quarter inch or less.
Behind the front, winds shift out of the northwest and increase to
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph behind the front, peaking 15-20 mph
with gusts to 30 mph in the late afternoon and evening.

On Friday, breezy west winds 15 to 20 mph will gust to 25 mph. With
min RH values falling 25 to 30 percent, Friday will be a fire
sensitive day. Much cooler temperatures will lower mixing heights
but dispersion values will still be Very Good.

Fog potential...Widespread fog is not forecast. Localized visibility
reductions due to smoke from new or existing fires will be possible
even if fog is not forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  61  34  62 /  70  50   0   0
MCO  52  61  38  62 /  70  70   0   0
MLB  48  65  35  62 /  40  70   0   0
VRB  47  65  35  63 /  20  70   0   0
LEE  49  60  35  61 /  70  40   0   0
SFB  50  62  35  62 /  70  50   0   0
ORL  51  61  38  62 /  70  70   0   0
FPR  47  65  34  64 /  20  70   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Saturday
     for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Heil

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion